1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Global sugar production is expected to be high, pressuring sugar prices. However, as the sugar - ethanol price difference narrows, ethanol production provides stronger support for raw sugar. The international market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. In the domestic market, supply - demand factors are bearish, but cost - side support is strengthening, and it is also expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices. The downstream demand for pulp may improve, but global shipping data shows high supply, and the supply pressure in the Chinese market may remain high. The macro - sentiment improvement boosts low - valued pulp, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. However, the high production capacity may limit the price rebound. Attention can be paid to inter - month reverse spreads and long - pulp short - paper arbitrage [5]. - **Cotton**: The external market price of cotton is expected to be under pressure. In the domestic market, the new - season cotton harvest is progressing, and the production increase is basically certain. There are still pressures on the export side, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apple**: The supply - side bullish factors of apples have been somewhat realized, and the market is in high - level fluctuations. The poor performance of the good - fruit rate provides support for the far - month contracts [7]. - **Jujube**: The futures price of jujubes rebounded last week. The spot inventory is being depleted, and the price has a seasonal rebound. The current weather is favorable for new - season jujube production [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, recommend going long on the far - month contract; for Jujube 2601, recommend taking profits on long positions at high prices [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, recommend temporary observation; for Pulp 2511, recommend shorting within the range; for Offset Paper 2601, recommend shorting on rebounds; for Cotton 2601, recommend shorting at high prices [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2601 | 8625 | - 119 | - 1.36% | | Jujube 2601 | 11420 | 275 | 2.47% | | Sugar 2601 | 5412 | - 84 | - 1.53% | | Pulp 2511 | 4838 | 50 | 1.04% | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4202 | 8 | 0.19% | | Cotton 2601 | 13335 | 10 | 0.08% | [18] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.50 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5790 | 0 | - 750 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5550 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14679 | 15 | - 801 | [25] 3.3 Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The report provides basis charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, Pulp, and Cotton, but no specific data analysis is presented [34][37][38][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation The report provides inter - month spread charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, and Cotton, but no specific data analysis is presented [43][45][47]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8418 | - 20 | - 1300 | | Pulp | 227023 | - 445 | - 176569 | | Cotton | 2653 | - 71 | - 1321 | [48] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Apple Options - Market logic: New - season apple listing performance is below expectations, and far - month contracts have strong support. - Option strategy: Sell far - month put options [49]. 3.6.2 Sugar Options - Market logic: Cost support exists, but the fundamental situation is mainly bearish. - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle option strategy [49]. 3.6.3 Cotton Options - Market logic: The concentrated listing of new - season cotton exerts obvious pressure, and the short - term futures price may show a weak trend. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - **Weather in Producing Areas**: The report provides temperature and precipitation charts for Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis is presented [62][63]. - **Export Situation**: The report provides a chart of monthly apple export volume, but no specific analysis is presented [64][65]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report provides charts of weekly apple storage inventories in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis is presented [66][67]. 3.7.2 Jujube The report provides charts of weekly jujube trading volumes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis is presented [68][69]. 3.7.3 Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures spread, but no specific analysis is presented [70][71][73][75]. 3.7.4 Pulp The report provides charts of domestic four - port pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, pulp product weekly production, and monthly import volume of broadleaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis is presented [77][82][83]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper The report provides charts of offset paper capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis is presented [84][85]. 3.7.6 Cotton The report provides charts of retail sales and inventory data of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories, import volume, and textile industry - related data, but no specific analysis is presented [86][87][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors show different market trends. In the soft - commodity sector, sugar prices are under pressure but with limited downside, and pulp has high supply and limited demand improvement. In the fresh - fruit sector, apple prices are in high - level oscillation, and jujube prices are affected by various factors such as inventory and seasonality [3][10]. - For trading strategies, different approaches are recommended for each commodity. For example, for sugar, it is advisable to wait and consider selling wide - straddle options; for pulp, a bearish approach on rebounds is suggested [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh - fruit Futures**: For Apple 2601, use an interval trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a resistance range of 9000 - 9200. For Jujube 2601, consider short - selling at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a resistance range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Soft - commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, wait and see. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish approach in the interval, with a support range of 4700 - 4750 and a resistance range of 5100 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a resistance range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a resistance range of 13600 - 13700 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, fresh apple exports were about 68,400 tons, a 27.59% month - on - month increase but a 17.57% year - on - year decrease. As of September 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a 60,200 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 30,700 - ton year - on - year decrease [21]. - **Spot Market**: Prices in Shandong were stable with little trading, and new apples haven't been widely available due to rainfall. In Shaanxi, merchants were interested in high - quality apples. In other regions, prices in Gansu remained high, and prices in Liaoning varied by variety. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was lower than usual, and prices were stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses was 9167 tons, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease but a 93.89% year - on - year increase. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old jujubes and price changes before the new jujubes are harvested [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market In September, the forecasted arrival of duty - quota - free raw sugar was 460,000 tons, and the estimated sugar import was 600,000 - 700,000 tons. Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area was estimated to be 9.355219 million hectares, and the output was estimated to be 695.532937 million tons. Spot sugar prices in Yunnan and Guangxi decreased slightly [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The offer price of NBSK to Chinese traders was 650 US dollars per ton, but sellers refused to lower the price. A European supplier sold NBSK at 650 US dollars per ton. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. A major Brazilian supplier planned to increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper was 4600 - 4750 yuan per ton, and that of some natural - white paper was 4300 - 4500 yuan per ton. In Guangdong, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4600 - 4700 yuan per ton. In Beijing, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton. In Tianjin, the price was 4900 - 5000 yuan per ton. Supply was relatively loose, and demand showed no improvement [30][31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In September 2025, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 102 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year and 4.28% month - on - month increase; clothing output was 554 million pieces, a 13.52% year - on - year decrease but a 1.52% month - on - month increase. In August, Thailand's cotton import was about 9057 tons, a 43.5% month - on - month decrease but a 1.2% year - on - year increase [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8510, down 155 or 1.79%. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11360, up 255 or 2.30%. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5408, up 5 or 0.09%. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4856, unchanged. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13320, up 50 or 0.38% [33]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - Apples were priced at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month but up 0.50 yuan year - on - year. - Jujubes were priced at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - Sugar was priced at 5790 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but down 750 yuan year - on - year. - Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was priced at 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 700 yuan year - on - year. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was priced at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 450 yuan year - on - year. - Cotton was priced at 14664 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 849 yuan year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis of basis situation was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread was 535, down 1 month - on - month and 97 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread was 255, up 315 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread was 34, up 2 month - on - month and 19 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55, up 5 month - on - month and 25 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see temporarily [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific analysis of futures positioning was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Sugar had 8438 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month but down 1280 year - on - year. - Pulp had 227468 warehouse receipts, down 208 month - on - month and 176879 year - on - year. - Cotton had 2724 warehouse receipts, down 49 month - on - month and 1349 year - on - year [90]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific analysis of option - related data was provided other than relevant figures and sources.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market shows strong supply and demand. After the holiday, the downstream restocking enthusiasm exceeded expectations, with increased market volatility. The supply of lithium carbonate continued to reach new highs, and the demand also hit a new weekly high, but the inventory remained at a high level [4][5]. - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon is currently acceptable, but there are uncertainties in the future. The production is expected to decline in November, and the demand is also uncertain due to the potential "production - limit and sales - control" plan in the downstream [6]. - For polysilicon, high profits drive high production, but the terminal demand is weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. However, there are still expectations of production - control policies, resulting in a situation of strong expectation and weak reality [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Carbonate Lithium 01**: With strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000 [14]. - **Industrial Silicon 11**: There is an increasing expectation of production cuts on the demand side, but the price has support below. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Currently, short - term long positions can be considered within the range. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure interval is 9,200 - 9,300 [14]. - **Polysilicon 11**: The situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Early long positions can consider gradually realizing profits or holding cautiously. The support interval is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure interval is 52,000 - 53,000 [14]. - **Arbitrage Recommendation**: There are no good arbitrage opportunities recently [14]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 74,940 | 3.05% | 268,890 | 177,951 | - 10,572 | 30,456 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,605 | 0.41% | 209,588 | 131,649 | - 10,732 | 50,291 | | Polysilicon | 52,575 | 3.48% | 266,129 | 78,885 | - 1,229 | 8,130 | [15] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate reached 21,066 tons, an increase of 431 tons from the previous week, hitting a new weekly high. The total sample inventory was 132,658 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons from the previous week, with an accelerated de - stocking speed but still at a high level. The weekly apparent demand was 23,209 tons, also a new weekly high [4]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream material factories adopted a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and the overall market trading activity was dull [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November. The Southwest will enter the dry season in November, and some factories may reduce production, while large factories in Xinjiang have the expectation of increasing production [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand is acceptable, with the production of the polysilicon segment continuing to increase. However, due to the expected "production - limit and sales - control" plan in the industry, the demand has great uncertainty [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, the production of polysilicon will exceed expectations in October. However, due to weak terminal demand, obvious inventory accumulation has occurred. As of October 10th, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,700 tons [7][8]. - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream has gradually started production cuts, and the national photovoltaic new installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, a new low this year [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, technical buying increased after a sharp decline in ICE raw sugar, showing signs of stabilization. However, global sugar production is expected to be high, and the downward potential of raw sugar has weakened. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar was driven down by the macro - environment and the decline in raw sugar, with short - term technical rebounds but limited by supply - demand pressure [3]. - In the pulp market, the price of hardwood pulp is strong, while the price of softwood pulp is weak. The supply of wood pulp is high, and although there was a reduction in production by some pulp mills, the impact is not obvious. The demand for wood pulp is supported by the increase in the production of finished paper during the peak season, but the price increase of finished paper is weak, and the upward drive for pulp is limited [4]. - Regarding double - offset paper, the expectation of peak - season demand may support the price, but due to the high production capacity, the seasonal improvement may not lead to a significant price increase, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [7]. - In the cotton market, the US cotton harvest is progressing steadily, and the domestic Xinjiang cotton harvest is also in progress. The market is under pressure from supply and consumption concerns, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [8]. - For apples, the new - season apple harvest has a time lag and quality concerns, and the short - term futures price may be supported [10]. - In the jujube market, the inventory has decreased slightly. The futures price is at a high premium to the spot price, and investors are advised to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2601: Adopt a bullish approach, with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 9000 - 9200, due to the expected difference in the new - season harvest and the value of taking delivery [21]. - Jujube 2601: Short at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000, as the overall commodity sentiment is strong and attention is on weather - related price premiums [21]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Temporarily wait and see, with a support range of 5270 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5480 - 5500, as technical buying has increased and sentiment has improved [21]. - Pulp 2511: Short within the range, with a support range of 4700 - 4800 and a pressure range of 5100 - 5200, because the short - term valuation is not high, but supply is high and the price of domestic finished paper is weak [21]. - Double - offset paper 2601: Short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500, as the approaching peak season supports the price, but the supply is elastic [21]. - Cotton 2601: Hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700, due to the approaching new - cotton listing and concerns about Sino - US trade relations [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. As of September 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,700 tons [22]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the inventory apple market is stable, and the new - season late - maturing Fuji has a delayed listing due to weather. In the Shaanxi production area, red apples are scarce, and the listing time is also postponed. The sales area market is stable [22][23][24]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, a decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. Attention is on the circulation of old - season jujubes and price changes before the new - season harvest [25]. - **Sugar Market**: In September, the average productivity of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 71.9 tons per hectare, higher than the same period last year. Pakistan plans to purchase up to 100,000 tons of sugar on the international market, but the possibility of a deal seems to be decreasing [27]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered to import NBSK at $650 per ton, but sellers refused to reduce prices. A European supplier sold NBSK at $650 per ton, lower than the market level. A major Brazilian supplier will increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by $20 per ton [30]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the price of double - offset paper is relatively stable. The supply is relatively loose as some production lines resume production after the holiday, and the demand shows no sign of improvement [31][32]. - **Cotton Market**: In September 2025, Bangladesh's clothing export volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. In August, Vietnam's cotton textile production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while clothing production decreased. As of October 13, the cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang was about 53.2%. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be adjusted slightly [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing prices of apple 2601, jujube 2601, sugar 2601, pulp 2511, and cotton 2601 are 8665, 11105, 5403, 4856, and 13270 respectively, with daily changes of 0.01%, - 0.05%, 0.11%, 0.21%, and 0.04% [34]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot prices of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are 3.75 yuan per catty, 9.40 yuan per kilogram, 5790 yuan per ton, 5550 yuan (Shandong Silver Star), 4450 yuan (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin), and 14674 yuan per ton respectively, with corresponding changes [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned, such as the basis of apple 1 - month, jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread is 535, with a month - on - month change of - 1 and a year - on - year change of - 97, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread is 315, with a month - on - month change of 295 and a year - on - year change of - 55, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread is 32, with a month - on - month change of 5 and a year - on - year change of 15, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread is - 60, with a month - on - month change of - 5 and a year - on - year change of 25, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see temporarily [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short changes of various varieties are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volumes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are 0, 0, 8438, 227676, and 2773 respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [85]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summarized content provided, only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the atmosphere in the new energy vehicle market changes and the downstream replenishment pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are okay, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate due to policy news [3][5][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market is characterized by strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The upstream is recommended to seize the opportunity of selling hedging when the price surges, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stocking or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000. - For industrial silicon 11, although there is an increasing expectation of demand - side production cuts, the price still has support below. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy and consider long - position allocation in the current interval. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. - For polysilicon 11, with the news of capacity control policies, long positions can be held cautiously. If one wants to increase positions, it is recommended to participate through buying call options. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [14] 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,720, with a daily increase of 0.06%, trading volume of 225,238, open interest of 188,523 (a decrease of 4,408 compared to the previous day), and 33,076 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,570, with a daily increase of 0.59%, trading volume of 225,068, open interest of 142,381 (a decrease of 20,293 compared to the previous day), and 50,357 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of polysilicon is 50,865, with a daily increase of 3.37%, trading volume of 276,176, open interest of 80,114 (a decrease of 1,274 compared to the previous day), and 8,050 warehouse receipts [15] Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons compared to the previous week, reaching a new weekly production high. Except for a slight decrease in the production of lithium extracted from mica, the production of other lithium - extraction processes continued to rise. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises increased around the holiday, the inventory in the intermediate links decreased, and the downstream inventory slightly declined [3] - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream material factories are becoming more cautious, and the overall market trading activity is average. From October 1 - 12, the wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 546,000, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a 15% decrease compared to the same period last month [3] 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Southwest China will enter the dry season in November, and production cuts may be planned at the end of October, while large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [5] - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand is okay, and the production of the polysilicon segment continues to increase. However, considering the "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan in the industry, there is great uncertainty in demand. The news of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry on Tuesday has increased the market's concern about the future demand for industrial silicon [5] 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production of polysilicon in October will exceed expectations. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream production cuts are gradually advancing, and the polysilicon inventory has shown an obvious accumulation trend. As of the week of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,700 tons [8] - **Downstream Situation**: The national photovoltaic new - installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, hitting a new low this year, indicating a weak downstream demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation changes bring significant short - term impacts on the non - ferrous sector. After the market quickly reflects the negative news, it may return to the original fluctuation logic. It is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term, and one can consider bargain - hunting for strong varieties [14]. - The market's concern about the US imposing tariffs on copper imports may rise, which will intensify the siphon effect of the US market and highlight the structural contradiction of global copper inventory. The supply pressure of copper cannot be alleviated, while the domestic macro - level in the fourth quarter is expected to boost copper demand. For Shanghai copper, one can try to gradually buy on dips [4][15]. - The zinc market is affected by trade situations and profit - taking. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound, and one can buy on dips [15][16]. - The aluminum industry chain shows different trends. Aluminum is in a state of shock consolidation, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; alumina is bearish, and one can hold a short - biased view; the regenerative aluminum alloy is supported by tight scrap supply, and short positions can be reduced [6][16]. - The tin market has a slight improvement in demand during the peak season, but high prices suppress spot trading. One can increase short positions moderately on rallies [7]. - The lead market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations, and one can continue to consider the option double - selling strategy in a wider range [9]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by trade situations. Nickel is in a weak shock, and one can be slightly bullish on dips; stainless steel is in a shock pattern, and one can buy on dips [10][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The change in Sino - US trade relations leads to an increase in risk - aversion demand, and risk assets fluctuate significantly. The non - ferrous metals show internal differentiation, with copper having relatively large fluctuations and other metals being more cautious in consolidation. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in October with a high probability [13]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Concerns about US tariffs may rise, supply pressure persists, and demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Buy on dips, with support at 83000 - 84000 yuan/ton and resistance at 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton [4][15]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rise, profit - taking and trade situations cause adjustments. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound, with support at 21500 - 21600 and resistance at 22400 - 22500. Buy on dips [15][16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: Supply capacity changes slightly, and demand shows seasonal characteristics with internal differentiation. It is in shock consolidation, with support at 20200 - 20500 and resistance at 21000 - 21300. Reduce short positions [16]. - **Alumina**: Production changes little, and it is bearish, with support at 2600 - 2700 and resistance at 3000 - 3200. Hold a short - biased view [6][16]. - **Regenerative Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by tight scrap supply, it moves in tandem with Shanghai aluminum. Reduce short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and resistance at 20800 - 21000 [6]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and raw material shortages, and demand improvement is limited. Increase short positions moderately on rallies, with support at 260000 - 270000 and resistance at 290000 - 300000 [7][16]. - **Lead**: Supply is affected by production cuts and maintenance, and demand recovers after the holiday. It is in range - bound fluctuations, with support at 16500 - 16600 and resistance at 17000 - 17200. Consider the option double - selling strategy [9][17]. - **Nickel**: Supply is stable in the short term, and demand slows down. It is in weak shock, with support at 118000 - 120000 and resistance at 125000 - 128000. Be slightly bullish on dips [10][17]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply growth slows down, and demand recovers but remains weak. It is in a shock pattern, with support at 12500 - 12600 and resistance at 13000 - 13200. Buy on dips [10][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes** - Copper closed at 85800 yuan/ton, up 1.65%. - Zinc closed at 22015 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. - Aluminum closed at 20910 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. - Alumina closed at 2797 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. - Tin closed at 281710 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. - Lead closed at 17110 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. - Nickel closed at 121180 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. - Stainless steel closed at 12560 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. - Cast aluminum alloy closed at 20410 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [18][19]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts show different net long - short positions and changes, which are affected by factors such as non - main - force funds, main - force long - position increases or decreases, and main - force short - position increases [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes** - Copper spot prices range from 85475 - 85600 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.53% - 0.54%. - Zinc spot prices range from 21850 - 22020 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.81% - 0.95%. - Aluminum spot prices range from 20820 - 20900 yuan/ton, with little change. - Alumina spot prices range from 2974 yuan/ton (domestic average) to 320 US dollars/ton (Australia FOB), with a decline of about 0.23% for the domestic average [24]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain - The report provides a series of charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and their relationships, which helps to analyze the supply - demand situation and price trends of each metal [26][30][32]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage - The report presents a series of charts related to the arbitrage of each non - ferrous metal, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and price differences between different contracts, which helps to find arbitrage opportunities [64][65][67]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options - The report provides a series of charts related to the options of each non - ferrous metal, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio, which helps to analyze the option market and formulate option strategies [80][82][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The current inventory in China continues to accumulate with sufficient supply, but in the fourth - quarter consumption peak, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. Short - term prices may fluctuate due to sufficient inventory, while the medium - to - long - term outlook is positive [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The market is bearish due to the expected relaxation of Canadian rapeseed - related policies. However, domestic supply will gradually tighten, and enterprises are strongly willing to hold prices. It is recommended to wait and see or use options to protect positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of the main contract dropped on Wednesday. The medium - to - long - term price outlook is positive, and it is recommended to go long after the price stabilizes [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: Global soybean production areas have good weather, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of soybean meal is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to short lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options. For bean No. 2, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price is weak. Although there is limited upside drive, the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market has a bearish background. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: With new domestic soybeans on the market and active downstream purchases, it is recommended to go long lightly [6]. - **Peanuts**: The new - season output increase expectation is discounted. It is recommended to hold long positions for now [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has rebounded after falling. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on the 2607 contract after capacity reduction is confirmed [7][8]. - **Eggs**: The futures price has rebounded from the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the 2512 contract at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oilseeds**: Bean No. 1 is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Bean No. 2 is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanuts are expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to go long lightly; Rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see; Palm oil is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to hold short positions; Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and adjusted, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn and corn starch are expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Hogs and eggs are expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, while hogs and eggs are recommended to conduct positive arbitrage at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some oil and protein varieties, it is recommended to conduct long or short operations, and for oil - meal ratios, it is recommended to go long [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various varieties in different sectors [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and their related products [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil [17]. - **Weekly Data**: It includes data on corn consumption, inventory, and starch enterprise operating rate and inventory [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Daily Data**: It shows the daily price changes of hogs and eggs in different regions [19][20]. - **Weekly Data**: It provides key weekly data on hogs and eggs, including price, cost, profit, and production - related data [21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: It includes charts of futures and spot prices, and other related data of hogs and eggs [25][28]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: It includes charts of production, inventory, import, and price spread data for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [33][44][53]. - **Feed**: It includes charts of price, inventory, consumption, and profit data for corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [59][66][77]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [92]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of warehouse receipt quantities for various varieties [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate with sufficient supply and currently lacks bullish drivers. However, as the traditional consumption season in Q4 and the best - value oil, inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. It's advisable to hold long positions in the main contract, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Despite macro - risk disturbances and a weakening in the futures market, the spot basis remains firm. With anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports, supply will gradually tighten. Although high current inventory restricts the futures price, there is a strong de - stocking expectation. It's recommended to wait for stabilization and then go long lightly, with support at 9768 - 9785 and resistance at 10249 - 10266 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The recent decline in crude oil and increased palm oil production in Malaysia have led to a price drop. But the inventory pressure in Southeast Asian production areas is not large, and with the B50 test in Indonesia, the supply - demand situation is expected to narrow in Q4. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization, with support at 9230 - 9270 and resistance at 9650 - 9680 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The supply of soybean meal and bean No. 2 is abundant, and the consumption of soybean meal is entering the off - season. The futures price of soybean meal is likely to remain weak. It's recommended to hold short positions lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options for soybean meal, and consider going long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upward driving force is insufficient, but the downside is limited. There is no obvious single - side trading opportunity. Consider going long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio, with support at 2354 - 2370 and resistance at 2474 - 2500 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is also bearish due to the new - season harvest and poor downstream profits. It's recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with the 11 - contract corn support at 2000 - 2050 and resistance at 2180 - 2200, and the 11 - contract corn starch support at 2340 - 2350 and resistance at 2500 - 2520 [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The new - season soybeans in the Northeast are on the market, and the price is polarized. With low valuation and active downstream purchases, it's advisable to go long lightly, with support at 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton and resistance at 4030 - 4050 yuan/ton [5]. - **Peanuts**: Although the new - season peanut production is expected to increase, the adverse weather in Henan has affected yields. It's recommended to hold long positions temporarily, with support at 7550 - 7900 and resistance at 8020 - 8160 [5]. - **Pigs**: The futures and spot prices stopped falling and rebounded. The industry is reducing weights and increasing the supply. It's advisable for cautious investors to hold short - near and long - far spreads, and wait for capacity reduction to buy the 2607 contract at low prices [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to rebound from the bottom. The spot price is in the off - season. It's recommended to avoid shorting blindly. Aggressive investors can go long on the 2512 contract at low prices, with the reference range at 2950 - 3200 points [7]. Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 11 | New domestic soybeans are in abundant supply, and downstream purchases are relatively active under low valuation | 3900 - 3930 | 4030 - 4050 | Oscillating strongly | Go long lightly | | | Soybean No. 2 11 | Sufficient current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans, continuous Sino - US trade friction, and no purchase of new - season US soybeans | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Increasing market supply, poor yield performance in parts of Henan | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Little change in fundamentals, affected by crude oil fluctuations. Sufficient supply currently, and the supply - demand outlook is positive in Q4 | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillating up | Go long lightly | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Fewer purchase orders, de - stocking expected | 9768 - 9785 | 10249 - 10266 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | | Palm 01 | Malaysian palm oil production exceeds expectations, but inventory pressure in production areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the long - term outlook is bullish | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 01 | Sufficient inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in Q4. The bullish factor is the continuous Sino - US trade friction | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillating adjustment | Hold short positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, and seasonal demand weakening | 2354 - 2370 | 2474 - 2500 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | The market is under pressure seasonally, but the listing rhythm may have some disturbances | 2000 - 2050 | 2180 - 2200 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | The cost of corn is under pressure, and the spot supply is slightly loose. The futures price of starch follows the downward trend | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Pigs 11 | Feed prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Switch to waiting and seeing | | | Eggs 12 | Capacity pressure + expectation of the consumption peak season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Wait and see | [10] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, except for pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, which are recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For oils, 01 soybean oil - palm oil is recommended for short - biased operation, 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil for long - biased operation, and 01 rapeseed oil - palm oil to wait and see. For protein, 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is in low - level oscillation. For the oil - meal ratio, the 01 soybean oil - meal ratio and 01 rapeseed oil - meal ratio are recommended for long - biased operation. For energy and by - products, 11 starch - corn is recommended to wait and see [12]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 3960 | 3960 | - 7 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3960 | 3960 | 347 | 39 | | | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8620 | 8620 | 310 | 8 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 10180 | 30 | 221 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9280 | 20 | - 50 | 54 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 2920 | - 10 | 78 | 78 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2430 | - 30 | 82 | 14 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2120 | - 20 | 58 | 3 | | | Starch | 2570 | 0 | 169 | - 17 | | Livestock | Pigs | 10.92 yuan/kg | 0.07 yuan/kg | - 450 | - 275 | | | Eggs | 2.42 yuan/jin | - 0.07 yuan/jin | 48 yuan/500kg | - 44 yuan/500kg | [13] 2. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Includes import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods [14]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [16]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: Presents the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [17]. c. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Provides the daily price changes of live pigs and eggs [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and production - related data [20][22]. 3. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Includes charts of futures and spot prices of pigs and eggs, as well as related prices such as piglets and white - striped pigs [24]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers production, inventory, import, and price - related charts in Malaysia [34]. - **Soybean Oil**: Includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic operation rates and inventory [41]. - **Peanuts**: Involves charts of market supply, processing, and price - related data [50]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: Includes price, inventory, import, and processing - profit - related charts [56]. - **Corn Starch**: Covers price, operation rate, and inventory - related charts [64]. - **Rapeseed**: Includes spot price, inventory, and basis - related charts [68]. - **Soybean Meal**: Involves US soybean growth, inventory, and price - spread - related charts [74]. 4. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Includes historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open - interest charts of corn [90]. 5. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Shows the warehouse receipt quantity and open - interest charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The change in Sino-US trade relations has led to an increase in risk aversion demand, with significant fluctuations in risk assets. The performance within the non-ferrous metals sector is relatively differentiated, with copper showing relatively large fluctuations, while other non-ferrous metals tend to be more cautious in consolidation [12]. - For different non-ferrous metals, specific market conditions and investment suggestions are provided, such as for copper, it is recommended to gradually go long on dips; for zinc, pay attention to the opening of the export window; for aluminum and its industrial chain, adopt a short - selling approach, etc. [4][5][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: Sino - US trade relations have increased risk aversion demand, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. Non - ferrous metals show internal differentiation, with copper having larger fluctuations and others being more cautious [12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: The supply pressure cannot be relieved, and demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton [4][14]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the opening of the export window. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with an upper pressure around 22,500 - 22,600 and a lower support around 21,800 - 22,000 [5][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Adopt a short - selling approach, with different pressure and support ranges for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, and consider buying out - of - the - money options for protection [6][15]. - **Tin**: Maintain a short - selling operation, with an upper pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 and a lower support range of 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Consider a wide - range option double - selling strategy, with a support at 16,500 - 16,600 and a pressure at 17,000 - 17,200 [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a consolidation trend, with an upper pressure of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan and a lower support of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. Stainless steel is in a weak - fluctuating range, with a support at 12,500 - 12,600 and a pressure at 13,000 - 13,200 [9]. Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as copper closing at 84,410 yuan with a - 0.83% change, zinc at 22,220 yuan with a - 0.16% change, etc. [18][19] Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metal futures contracts are shown, including沪金(AU2512),沪银(AG2512), etc. [20] Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price at 86,060 yuan/ton with a 1.06% change, and the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 22,200 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change [21][23] Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For different non - ferrous metals, relevant industry chain data charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price comparisons, such as copper exchange inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, etc. [25][28] Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various arbitrage - related data charts for non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [57][59] Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Option - related data charts for non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of options, such as copper option historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, etc. [73][75]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current lithium salt market shows strong supply and demand. After the holiday, as the downstream restocking pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. The follow - up arrangements of Yichun lithium mica mines are yet to be clarified, and international macro factors may disrupt the market. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are acceptable, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate [2][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part I: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market has strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere. It is expected to fluctuate and weaken. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000 [15]. - For industrial silicon 11, the demand - side reduction expectation is increasing, but there is still support below the price. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Currently, it can be considered for long - position allocation within the range. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300 [15]. - For polysilicon 11, there are rumors about capacity control policies. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Short - sellers should temporarily exit, and aggressive investors can consider going long at low prices. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [15]. - There are currently no good arbitrage opportunities [15]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,680, with a daily increase of 0.55%, trading volume of 270,327, and an open interest of 192,931 (a decrease of 14,532 compared to the previous day), and 35,180 warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,520, with a daily decrease of 3.24%, trading volume of 287,277, and an open interest of 162,674 (a decrease of 3,048 compared to the previous day), and 51,197 warehouse receipts [16]. - The closing price of polysilicon is 49,990, with a daily increase of 2.55%, trading volume of 297,703, and an open interest of 81,388 (a decrease of 6,277 compared to the previous day), and 7,950 warehouse receipts [16]. Part II: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: On Tuesday, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,007 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons from the previous week, reaching a new weekly high. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The weekly apparent demand for lithium carbonate was 21,647 tons, remaining at a recent high [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The report does not provide detailed downstream situation information other than the demand data mentioned above [2]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The southwest region will enter the dry season in November, and production reduction plans may be gradually initiated at the end of October, but large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand performance is acceptable, with the output of the polysilicon segment continuing to increase. However, considering the industry's "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan, the demand has great uncertainty. On Tuesday, there were rumors of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry, increasing concerns about future demand for industrial silicon [6]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, enterprises' production enthusiasm is high. In October, the polysilicon output will exceed expectations. However, terminal demand is weak. As of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a weekly increase of 11,700 tons [8][9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream is gradually reducing production. There are expectations of capacity control policies, which may affect the market [9].