1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the planting area of new - season US soybeans decreased significantly year - on - year. There is a high possibility of further reducing the yield per unit in January, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of 3 - 5 million tons in production. The CBOT soybean price is expected to have limited downside, with a support level at 1000 - 1050 cents per bushel, and the price center is expected to rise to 1200 - 1300 cents per bushel. South American soybean premiums are expected to be weak [2][210][246]. - In the domestic market, domestic soybean production is expected to increase again in the 2025/26 season. The price of soybean No. 1 is likely to rise in the first quarter of 2026, with an upper limit of 4300 - 4350 yuan per ton, and may be weak in the second and third quarters, with a lower limit of 3750 - 3800 yuan per ton. The market for soybean meal and soybean oil is expected to be strong first and then weak in 2026 [4][220][247]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Part 1: Market Review - **2025 CBOT Soybean Price Bottomed out and Rose**: The long - term cycle of US soybean prices is about 4 - 5 years. In 2025, the price was affected by trade frictions, soybean production, and biodiesel policies. The non - commercial net position of CBOT soybeans turned positive in the second quarter, and the speculative market maintained a bullish sentiment [20][24][27]. - **2025 Chinese Crushed Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Centers Rose**: The prices of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal showed a volatile upward trend. The market changed from "strong reality + weak expectation" before May to "weak reality + strong expectation" after May, mainly affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, trade relations, and biodiesel policies [31]. - **2025 Chinese Soybean Oil Price Rose**: The main - contract price of soybean oil on the DCE found support at 7500 yuan per ton and stabilized above 8000 yuan per ton. It was affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, geopolitical conflicts, and biodiesel policies [43]. - **2025 Chinese Edible Soybean Market Price Strengthened**: The futures price of soybean No. 1 on the DCE ended a three - year decline. The increase was mainly due to the active acquisition by middle - stream traders and the support of state - owned grain reserves. There was a structural supply shortage of high - protein soybeans [47]. Part 2: Global Soybean Supply - Demand Situation Analysis - **Global Oilseed Market Supply is Sufficient**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production increased to 685 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, it is expected to reach 690 million tons. The growth rate of soybean production has slowed down, while the demand growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand situation has eased [52]. - **US Soybean Supply - Demand is First Loose and Then Tight**: - **Production Decline**: The planting area of new - season US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, and the yield per unit may also decline. The production is expected to be between 114 - 116 million tons, a decrease of 3 - 5 million tons compared to the previous year [66]. - **Demand Analysis**: US soybean demand mainly comes from crushing and exports. Crushing consumption is affected by biodiesel policies, and exports depend on China's purchases. In recent years, crushing consumption has been strong, while export demand has decreased [76]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: Due to the decline in production and the increase in crushing consumption, the inventory - consumption ratio of new - season US soybeans may decrease, supporting the upward movement of the CBOT soybean price center in 2026 [93]. - **South American Soybean Premiums Declined**: In 2025, South American soybeans had a good harvest. Brazilian soybean premiums were strong before October but declined later due to Sino - US trade negotiations. The sowing of new - season South American soybeans is going smoothly, and premiums are expected to remain under pressure [94][95][96]. Part 3: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Situation - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Continuous Production Increase**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic soybean production is expected to approach 21 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the sowing area in Heilongjiang. The planting cost has decreased, and there are various subsidies [132]. - **Consumption Needs Improvement**: About 90% of domestic soybeans are used for food processing. The demand for domestic non - genetically modified soybeans has room for growth, especially in the crushing sector. The consumption of domestic soybeans is affected by policies and the market [133]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: In 2025, domestic soybeans had a good harvest, and the supply was sufficient. The price had a strong support at the bottom but lacked the driving force for continuous upward movement [141]. - **Crushed Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Increased Import Cost**: In 2025, the import cost of soybeans in China increased, mainly due to the rise in the CBOT soybean price, the increase in South American soybean premiums, and the change in the exchange rate. The crushing profit first increased and then decreased [143]. - **Increased Bean Imports and Arrivals**: In 2025, the import and arrival of soybeans in China increased, with a record high in October. The imports of soybean meal and soybean oil were relatively small and had little impact on the market [158][165][167]. - **Beans Inventory Remained at a High Level**: In 2025, the inventory of the domestic crushed soybean industry chain first decreased and then increased. Currently, the inventory of crushed soybeans is at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of soybean oil is around the average level. The inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline in the fourth quarter [169][170][171]. - **Terminal Demand Situation**: - **Soybean Meal Consumption is Expected to Turn from Strong to Weak**: In 2025, the feed production in China increased significantly. However, as the aquaculture industry falls into losses, the production capacity and inventory of pigs and poultry are expected to decline in 2026, and feed consumption is expected to decrease. The substitution of rapeseed meal and wheat for soybean meal has both positive and negative effects, but overall, the feed consumption of soybean meal in 2025 is expected to continue to increase, and it is estimated to decrease to 76.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of 2.57% [178][179][180]. - **Soybean Oil Consumption is Weak**: In the 2024/25 season, the edible consumption of oils in China decreased. Since May 2025, the downstream inventory of oils has been inactive. Although the price of soybean oil futures has risen, the overall consumption of oils is still weak, but the consumption share of soybean oil is increasing [198]. Part 4: International Soybean Market Logic and US Soybean Price Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the impact of the decline in US soybean production, trade relations, and biodiesel policies on the CBOT soybean price, and the expected weak performance of South American soybean premiums [210]. Part 5: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Balance and Market Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, including the prediction of the price trend of domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026, and the impact of supply and demand factors [220][221][247]. Part 6: Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Basis Trend is Expected to be Strong First and Then Weak**: The basis of domestic soybean meal in 2025 was weak. In 2026, the basis is expected to be strong in the first quarter and decline after April [230]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spread is Expected to Remain Low**: Due to the tense Sino - Canadian trade relations and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to remain low in 2026 [235]. - **Bean Oil - Meal Ratio is Bearish in the Medium and Long Term**: The supply - side logics of soybean meal and soybean oil are similar, but the demand - side performance is different. The bean oil - meal ratio is expected to rise first and then fall, and short - term long and medium - to - long - term short operations are recommended [238]. Part 7: Main Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Comprehensive Judgment and Operational Strategy**: The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, providing specific price ranges and operational suggestions for the price trends of CBOT soybeans, domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026 [246][247][248]. - **Futures and Options Operational Strategy**: In 2026, the soybean meal market is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day. The price of soybean oil is expected to be high first and then low. It is recommended to take long positions with a light position or sell out - of - the - money put options in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day [249]. - **Seasonal Trend of Bean Index**: Relevant figures are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. Part 8: Related Stocks - The report lists the price changes of related stocks in 2025, including companies in the feed, soybean planting and trading, aquaculture, and oil processing industries [273].

碳酸锂：非经一番寒彻骨 哪得梅花扑鼻香 碳酸锂市场 2026 年年报 方正中期期货研究院 有色贵金属与新能源团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年上半年上游锂矿石到下游正极材料、电芯价格整体延续此前两年的下 跌趋势，碳酸锂价格于6月份跌破6万元大关；下半年市场供需好转预期改善，动力电 池和储能电池对碳酸锂的需求携手放量带动碳酸锂连续四个月库存去化，价格于四季 度回升至10万元关口附近。由于钴资源供应受到非洲主要产地地缘因素影响价格年内 显著走强，三元材料价格较磷酸铁锂系列表现相对坚挺。 ——2025 年碳酸锂市场回顾与 2026 年展望 据供需平衡表测算，2026年锂盐供需两旺同时年度级别看库存累积的态势仍 将延续，储能端对锂资源需求超预期向好，能一定程度对冲新能源汽车需求增速下滑 的担忧。锂盐价格仍处于向历史低位区间（6万元下方）回归的进程中。2026年上半 年平衡表的主要矛盾是新能源汽车需求阶段性回落；2026年下半年平衡表的主要矛盾 是国内外锂盐新增产能的集中释放。与此前的宽幅波动相比，即便将来锂价新的周期 到来，随着低成本盐湖及回收提锂（生产环节成本较低）占比提升，锂盐长期稳定运 行的基础 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, copper was the most outstanding variety in the non - ferrous metal sector, with the best supply - demand fundamentals, the strongest financial attributes, and the smoothest upward logic. Its annual increase was the largest since 2009 [1]. - In 2026, copper is expected to be one of the strongest - performing commodities. The supply of copper concentrates will be tighter than in 2025, and the global copper supply - demand pattern will shift from a tight balance to a supply shortage. The copper - gold ratio has room for significant repair, and valuation repair may become the underlying driver of copper price increases in 2026. The expected trading range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 89,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton as the support and 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton as the resistance [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Long - term Copper Price Trend Analysis and 2025 Trend Review - **Copper Price Historical Trend Review**: From the 1990s to 2023, copper prices experienced five major upward cycles, mainly driven by factors such as economic growth, financial attributes, and supply - demand imbalances. Since 2024, the contradiction of tight global copper mine supply has been prominent, and in 2025, the structural contradiction of refined copper inventory dominated the copper price trend [13][14][19]. - **2025 Copper Price Trend Review**: In 2025, the copper price showed different trends in different stages. In the first quarter, it oscillated strongly; in April, it recovered after a decline; from May to August, it fluctuated at a high level; from September to December, it entered a second main upward wave and reached a new high. Supply - side disturbances and demand - side changes were the main driving factors [22][24][27]. Second Part: Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Influencing Factors - **Domestic Economic K - shaped Differentiation, New and Old Kinetic Energies at Two Extremes**: In 2025, China's economic growth kinetic energy shifted from investment to consumption and exports. Investment also shifted from traditional infrastructure and real estate to high - end manufacturing, digital economy, and new energy. The anti - involution policy in the third quarter boosted inflation to some extent. In 2026, China's economy will continue this transformation trend, and copper will benefit from strong demand in related fields [33][42][44]. - **The US Dollar Index Enters the Middle of the Downtrend, and the US Manufacturing Industry Enters the Expansion Cycle**: In the future, the US copper demand has great growth potential. The US manufacturing industry has been performing strongly, and the "Creation Mission" plan will increase copper demand. The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline in 2026, which will boost the copper price from a valuation perspective [56][57][72]. Third Part: Spot Premiums and Discounts No specific summary content provided in the text, only a figure about the seasonal trend of spot premiums and discounts is mentioned [75]. Fourth Part: Global Copper Supply Analysis - **Frequent Disturbances in Global Copper Mine Supply, Strong Constraints on Copper Concentrate Production**: In the long - term, global copper mines face problems such as slow production growth and declining grades. In 2025, supply disturbances increased, and the annual production growth rate was expected to be less than 2%. The global competition for copper resources is intensifying. In 2026, the supply of copper concentrates is expected to remain tight [78][79][95]. - **The Tight Supply of the Mining End Has Not Been Transmitted to the Smelting End, and China's Electrolytic Copper Production Has Reached Record Highs**: In 2025, although the supply of copper concentrates in China was tight and TC processing fees hit a record low, electrolytic copper production still increased significantly, mainly due to new capacity, high prices of by - products, and the substitution of scrap copper. In 2026, the supply of copper concentrates will still be tight, and China's electrolytic copper production is expected to remain at a high level but may slightly decline year - on - year [107][108][111]. - **The Spread between Refined and Scrap Copper Widens, and the Supply of Recycled Copper Resources Is Tight**: In 2025, the supply of scrap copper in China was tight, mainly due to concerns about tariffs on US scrap copper imports and policy impacts on recycled copper rod enterprises. In 2026, the situation of tight scrap copper supply may continue [123][124][127]. - **The Willingness to Export Electrolytic Copper Has Significantly Increased, and Imports Have Decreased**: In 2025, affected by the expected US tariff on copper imports, the export willingness of electrolytic copper in China increased, and imports decreased. The demand for copper concentrate imports increased [132][133][134]. Fifth Part: Global Inventory Structural Contradictions Are Prominent Since 2024, the impact of the global copper inventory structure on the price has been increasing. In 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges increased, but the COMEX inventory increased significantly, while the Shanghai and London inventories were maintained at low levels. In 2026, the structural contradiction of global copper inventory is expected to remain difficult to resolve [141][142][143]. Sixth Part: Copper Demand Analysis - **China's Copper Product Output Reached a Record High, and the Output Growth Rates of Refined Copper Rods and Copper Foil Were Obvious**: In 2025, China's copper product output reached a record high, with the output of refined copper rods and copper foil growing rapidly. In 2026, the output growth rate of refined copper rods is expected to increase, while the output of copper tubes and copper rods may decline, and the demand for copper foil is expected to continue to grow at a high rate [149][150][151]. - **Power Grid and New Energy Demand Are Strong, and Real Estate Demand Continues to Be Weak**: In 2025, power grid investment increased, while real estate investment declined, and the demand for copper in the home appliance sector weakened. In 2026, power grid investment is expected to achieve double - digit growth, while real estate and home appliance demand are expected to have limited improvement [169][170][171]. - **New Energy and AI Fields Are Expected to Be Important Sources of Future Copper Demand Increases**: In 2025, the copper consumption in the new energy industry increased. In the future, the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20%, and the copper demand in the AI field is expected to increase explosively. By 2030, the combined copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to account for 22% of the total demand [181][182][185]. Seventh Part: Arbitrage Analysis In 2025, there were differences in the price increases of major global copper markets in the first half of the year. The copper - to - zinc ratio continued to rise. In 2026, the copper - to - zinc ratio is expected to continue to increase, and the copper - to - London ratio still has room to decline [202][204]. Eighth Part: Position Analysis In 2025, the net long positions in the COMEX copper futures and options market increased significantly, and the long positions of LME copper investment funds also increased. The investment funds had an obvious impact on the copper price [210]. Ninth Part: Seasonal Analysis Copper prices tend to perform well in January, March, October, November, and December, mainly due to demand - side factors such as policy support and seasonal demand peaks [215]. Tenth Part: Copper Options Market Analysis In 2025, the implied volatility of copper options showed an upward trend, and the option market was bullish on copper prices. In 2026, the implied volatility center of copper is expected to move up, which is beneficial to option buyers [218]. Eleventh Part: Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In 2025, the global copper market's supply - surplus situation improved. In 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a supply surplus to a supply shortage, with an expected shortage of 150,000 tons [226]. Twelfth Part: Technical Trend Analysis From a technical perspective, copper has broken through the nearly 20 - year oscillation range since 2006, and the future upward space is promising [232]. Thirteenth Part: Full - text Summary and Operational Suggestions In 2026, copper is expected to be one of the strongest - performing commodities. The supply - demand pattern will shift to a shortage. The recommended operations are for downstream demanders to conduct long - hedging in far - month contracts, for spot holders to hold and wait for price increases, and for option buyers to consider buying call options [235][236]. Fourteenth Part: Related Stocks The report lists the performance of some copper - related stocks in 2025, including their year - to - date price increases and current prices [237].

氯碱市场2026年年报 氯碱：碱海潮生复潮落 V风深谷待春雷 ——2025年氯碱市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 夏聪聪 Z0012870 摘要： 2025 年，PVC 市场供需维持宽松态势，高库存成为市场常态。PVC 处于产业周 期的低迷筑底阶段，走势尚未企稳，面临低估值、弱驱动的困局。产业链上下游表 现均低迷，原料电石低位运行，PVC 成本端偏低，尽管自身价格回落，面临生产压 力增加，但大部分生产装置运行平稳，行业开工高位波动，市场可流通货源充裕。 下游市场持续低迷对 PVC 市场形成拖累，由于终端订单不佳，下游制品厂生产缺乏 积极性，市场面临开工不足。管材/管件、型材/门窗均与房地产挂钩，而地产仍处于 调整阶段，PVC 需求回暖乏力。供应稳定，而需求疲弱，华东及华南地区社会库存 居高不下。受到相关政策的扰动，PVC 出口增长势头突出，一定程度上缓解国内市 场压力，但难以主导 PVC 行情走势。2026 年，PVC 企业投产计划寥寥无几，产能增 速或放缓，若企业亏损持续扩大，可能出现检修或减产情况，而下游需求复苏略显 乏力，价格优势下出口或保持平稳增长态势。2026 年，PVC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the apple futures price showed an overall upward trend with the core driver being continuous unfavorable weather, which led to the downward revision of supply - side expectations. In 2026, whether the apple futures price will continue to rise or fall after reaching a high depends on the weather. The marginal driving force for further upward movement is weakening, and the price is expected to enter a topping stage. The apple 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall [2][3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Analysis - **Long - term Trends**: Since the listing of apple futures in 2017, the price has experienced multiple fluctuations, affected by factors such as market understanding, supply - demand situation, weather, and changes in delivery standards [11] - **2025 Trends**: The 2025 apple active contract price showed an obvious upward trend, divided into three main stages. The 01 contract went through four stages: "month - changing and reaching a high - supply - demand stalemate - expectation - driven - reality - realization". The core driver shifted from delivery logic to concerns about the yield and quality of new - season apples [20][24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of apple futures continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 20,315,094 lots, a year - on - year decrease of 10.21%, and the cumulative turnover was 1,584.078 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. The open interest was relatively stable from January to September and slightly increased in October [25] 1.2 Spot Market Analysis - In 2025, the domestic apple spot price showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with regional differences. In Shandong, the price trend was relatively complex, rising slightly from January to April, remaining stable from May to June, falling slightly from July to August, and rising moderately from September to November. In Shaanxi, the price rose slightly in the first half of the year and showed a stable "high - opening and stable - running" pattern in the second half [34] Part 2: Apple Supply Market Analysis - **This Season's Yield and Premium Fruit Rate**: The yield is expected to be at a low level in the past five years, and the premium fruit rate of some key indicators is lower than that in 2024, mainly due to unfavorable weather during the growth period [37] - **This Season's Peak Inventory Level**: The peak inventory level of apples this season is the lowest in the past five years, which further strengthens the market's expectation of medium - to - long - term supply tightening [45] - **Next Season's Supply Expectation**: Although the upstream profit has been repaired this season, the structural problems in the industry still exist. The supply in the next season is uncertain, and the weather is still the key variable affecting the yield [47] Part 3: Apple Demand Market Analysis - **Population and Disposable Income**: The population growth rate has slowed down in recent years, and the growth rate of per capita disposable income has also converged, resulting in insufficient support for terminal consumption [55] - **Total Fruit Output**: The total fruit output has been increasing continuously, with more supply varieties, longer supply periods of seasonal fruits, and a converging price system, which has continuously squeezed the consumption space of apples [59] - **2024/25 Consumption**: The apple consumption in the 2024/25 fruit season was mediocre, with no significant changes. The consumption in the 2025/26 fruit season is likely to continue the current pattern, and the core driver of consumption depends on the improvement of the overall economic environment and the restoration of consumer confidence [67] Part 4: Apple Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2025/26, the apple supply - demand expectation shows a slight downward trend. The supply is expected to decrease year - on - year, and the consumption also shows a stable - to - slightly - decreasing trend. The analysis of the supply - demand balance sheet is mainly based on the estimated yield, and it is difficult to guide the price significantly [76] Part 5: Seasonal Analysis - **Spot Price Seasonality**: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples has a relatively large increase probability in February, May - August, and a relatively large decrease probability in March, October - December, which is related to the growth cycle, holidays, and inventory levels of apples [78] - **Futures Price Seasonality**: The apple futures index has a relatively high probability of rising in February and April and a relatively high probability of falling in March, May, and December. Seasonal rules are only for reference [81] Part 6: Apple Market Outlook and Price Forecast - **Supply**: In 2026, the supply this season has tightened significantly, and the supply in the next season has a repair expectation, but it still depends on the weather [87] - **Demand**: The apple consumption in 2026 will continue the dull pattern, lacking driving factors. The consumption is mainly affected by the macro - consumption environment, and the consumption space is continuously squeezed [88] - **Price Forecast**: The apple futures price in 2026 is expected to enter a topping stage. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 8800 - 10500, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall in the range of 7500 - 9500. For operation, it is recommended to buy on dips for the 2605 contract and sell on rallies for the 2610 contract [88] Part 7: Apple Options Market Analysis - **Options Market Situation**: Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Options Operation Strategies**: For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums; for downstream enterprises, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs; for speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [93] Part 8: Related Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of related companies such as Guotou Zhonglu, Honghui Fruit and Vegetable, etc. showed different degrees of changes in 2025. For example, Guotou Zhonglu increased by 52.34%, and Honghui Fruit and Vegetable increased by 106.51% [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market shone brightly. Gold and silver were the best - performing assets among global major asset classes, with silver doubling in value and gold rising over 60%, the best annual performance since 1979. The underlying logic driving this bull market was the global shake of faith in the US dollar system, the decline of the real interest rate's explanatory power for precious metal prices, and the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve. Precious metals were re - defined from traditional safe - haven assets to inflation - resistant and risk assets [2][167]. - In 2026, the bull market in the precious metals market is expected to continue. The factors driving the 2025 rise may be strengthened. The Fed chair change, potential interest rate cuts, and increased US debt issuance may further undermine the US dollar's credit. Global central banks are likely to maintain strong gold - buying intentions, and investment demand for precious metals is expected to be further released. Silver may have a larger price increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may further decline [3][4][168]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections I. Review of Long - term and 2025 Trends of Precious Metals - **Long - term historical trends**: Since the Bretton Woods system in 1944, the gold price has experienced multiple bull - bear cycles. After the system collapsed in the 1970s, the gold price became market - oriented. From 1972 - 2023, it can be divided into five stages: the 1973 - 1980 bull market, the 1980 - 2000 bear market, the 2000 - 2011 bull market, the 2011 - 2018 bear market, and the 2019 - present bull market [12][13][14]. - **2025 trends**: Gold had two main upward waves in 2025, reaching a high of nearly $4400 per ounce. Silver's performance was even more remarkable, with a cumulative increase of over 80%. The gold - silver ratio declined from a high level [19][20][21]. II. Decline of the Explanatory Power of US Treasury Real Interest Rates for Precious Metal Prices Since 2023, US Treasury real interest rates have shown a positive correlation with gold prices. In 2025, their explanatory power for gold prices further weakened. The US debt, deficit, and damaged US dollar credit are becoming the new pricing anchors for gold, and the pricing logic has shifted from the financial to the monetary attribute [27][28]. III. The Underlying Logic of the Current Precious Metals Bull Market is Global De - dollarization - **The US dollar returning to its intrinsic value**: In 2025, the US dollar index declined by over 10%. The "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" aims to address the US trade deficit and manufacturing hollowing - out, which may lead to a long - term decline in the US dollar index [32][33]. - **Shaken faith in the US dollar**: In 2025, the US dollar and US Treasuries lost their safe - haven properties and began to show risk - asset characteristics. Gold and silver's safe - haven properties were highlighted [38][39]. - **Loosening of global capital's focus on US dollar assets**: In 2025, global capital reduced its allocation of US dollar assets and increased non - US assets. Precious metals benefited from this capital flow. In 2026, the attractiveness of US dollar assets may increase, but precious metals still have investment value [42][43][46]. - **Inability of stablecoins and the "Pennsylvania Plan" to fundamentally strengthen US dollar and US Treasury credit**: Stablecoins can temporarily increase US Treasury demand, but in the long run, they may accelerate the collapse of the US dollar credit system. The "Pennsylvania Plan" has not achieved the expected results in stabilizing the long - term US Treasury demand [49][53][57]. - **The US dollar index entering a new medium - to - long - term downward channel**: Historically, the US dollar index has a cycle of about 17 years, with 6 - 7 years of rising and 10 years of falling. Currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle, which is favorable for the rise of precious metal prices [60][61][62]. IV. The Monetary Attributes of Precious Metals Shine Global high debt and shaken faith in the US dollar have made gold and silver the ultimate choice to hedge against the risk of the credit - currency system. In 2025, global major economies' long - term bond yields rose, and the US and French sovereign ratings were downgraded. The US Treasury debt scale expanded rapidly, and global central banks increased their gold holdings. The Fed's independence was severely challenged, which was conducive to the rise of precious metal prices [70][71][75]. V. Redefinition of Precious Metals - **Transition from safe - haven to inflation - resistant and risk assets**: Gold and silver are being re - defined from traditional safe - haven assets to inflation - resistant and risk assets. In 2026, with the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, global inflation may rise again, increasing the attractiveness of precious metals [90][91]. - **Highlighted value as a major asset allocation**: Gold and silver have both risk - asset attributes. Their volatility is similar to that of the S&P 500, and their positive correlation with the US stock market is increasing. They are becoming an important part of global major asset allocation [94]. VI. Changes in the Supply - Demand Structure of Precious Metals - **Global central banks' gold - buying**: In 2025, the global central banks' gold - buying pace slowed down in the first half of the year but accelerated in the third quarter. It is expected that in 2026, central banks' gold - buying intentions will remain strong due to the potential weakening of the US dollar credit [96][99][101]. - **Global physical gold supply and demand**: In 2025, gold investment demand soared, compensating for the decline in central banks' gold - buying. Although the supply was slightly in surplus in the first three quarters, the supply - demand pattern tightened compared to 2024. In 2026, the physical gold market may face a supply shortage [106][110][111]. - **Global physical silver supply and demand**: In recent years, silver supply has been constrained. In 2025, supply is expected to increase by about 2%. In 2026, the supply growth rate may be about 1.5%. Demand in 2025 is expected to decline by 1%, but in 2026, it may increase by 2%. The silver market has had a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the shortage may widen in 2026 [112][121][127]. VII. Technical and Seasonal Analysis - **Technical analysis**: Gold's upward space has been fully opened. Based on historical bull - market performance, it still has room for growth. Silver usually lags behind gold in entering the bull market but has a larger cumulative increase. Technically, it supports a significant increase in silver prices [144][146]. - **Seasonal analysis**: For gold, December has the highest winning rate, and November - January is the strong - season period. For silver, January and June have a higher probability of decline, while March and October have a higher probability of increase [149]. VIII. Position Changes In 2025, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. The non - commercial net long positions in the futures market decreased, but the spot - market sentiment was stronger, as shown by the increase in ETF holdings [157]. IX. Arbitrage Strategy The gold - silver ratio reflects the premium of gold over silver in terms of safe - haven demand. In 2025, the gold - silver ratio declined. In 2026, with the rise of inflation expectations and copper prices, the gold - silver ratio is expected to further decline to around 60 [162][163]. X. Full - text Summary and Operational Suggestions The bull market in the precious metals market in 2026 is expected to continue. The upper pressure range for London gold is $5000 - $5200 per ounce, and the lower support range is $4100 - $4300 per ounce. For Shanghai gold futures, the pressure range is 1200 - 1250 yuan per gram, and the support range is 920 - 940 yuan per gram. The upper pressure range for London silver is $90 - $95 per ounce, and the lower support range is $55 - $60 per ounce. For Shanghai silver futures, the pressure range is 19000 - 20000 yuan per kilogram, and the support range is 13000 - 13500 yuan per kilogram [168]. XI. Related Stocks The report lists the cumulative price increases of some precious - metal - related stocks in 2025, such as Shandong Gold (600547.SH) with a 59.05% increase and Western Gold (601069.SH) with a 129.82% increase [170].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Palm Oil**: In 2025, the palm oil market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the center of the price shifting upwards. In 2026, the global supply - demand of palm oil is expected to remain in a tight - balance state. The price is likely to show a fluctuating trend with a rising center, ranging from 8300 to 9800. Domestic supply and demand are expected to continue the double - weak trend [2][3][153]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2025, the rapeseed oil futures fluctuated upwards, while the rapeseed meal futures showed wide - range fluctuations. In 2026, the global supply of rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, and the supply - demand outlook will turn loose. However, the domestic supply will be tight. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate, with the price range of rapeseed oil from 9000 to 10100 and that of rapeseed meal from 2200 to 2800 [3][4][156]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Market Trend Review - **Palm Oil**: The price experienced significant drops, rebounds, and fluctuations due to factors such as the delay of Indonesia's B40 policy, changes in export demand, and geopolitical situations [17][18]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price showed a trend of decline, rise, and then decline again, affected by factors like import policies, geopolitical situations, and inventory changes [21][22]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price fluctuated greatly, influenced by factors such as changes in soybean supply, trade relations, and seasonal demand [26][27]. 3.2 Production, Supply, and Import - Export of Oil Crops - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's production increased significantly, and Malaysia's production remained high even in the off - season. Overseas demand was at an average level, and Indonesia's B40 policy benefited domestic biodiesel demand. China's import profit was low, and the import volume was low [29][35][50]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: The supply of old - season rapeseed was tight, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased slightly. After the anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed, Australia's rapeseed gradually replaced it as an import source [58][71]. 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing, Consumption, and Demand - **Biodiesel Consumption**: Diesel strength improved biodiesel blending profit, and Indonesia's B40 policy advanced well. The EPA's proposed rule indicated an unexpected increase in US biodiesel, and its actual implementation needs attention [80][81]. - **Palm Oil Domestic Inventory**: Supply turned loose, while demand remained weak. In the first half of 2025, it was in a double - weak state, and the inventory increased in the second half [82]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals Production, Operation, and Consumption Demand**: Coastal oil mills were close to shutdown but were expected to recover at the end of the year. Supply lacked increment, but inventory was still high due to weak demand [92][100]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Its Interpretation - **Global Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, and inventory tightened. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase, and supply will turn loose [107][108]. - **Domestic Rapeseed**: In the 2024/25 season, production and import increased. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to increase slightly, but import will be restricted, and supply will be tight [109][110]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decline, and there will be supply gaps [114]. - **Palm Oil**: In the 2024/25 season, global production and demand increased, and inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, supply and demand are expected to increase, and inventory will accumulate slightly [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - **Palm Oil**: Its price is affected by factors such as oil production and festival consumption. The price usually drops in March - April and June and rises in the fourth quarter [119]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Its price has seasonal fluctuations related to weather and consumption. It rises in winter and drops in May - June [122]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Its consumption is seasonal, with high demand from May to August and low demand in winter [125]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - **Palm Oil**: The medium - and long - term upward trend remains, and attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels in Q1 2026 [128]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price has fallen to the annual average line, and attention should be paid to the market performance near the annual line [132]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It maintained a box - shock trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range [137]. 3.7 Option Analysis - **Palm Oil Option**: Volatility remained stable, and the market expects the short - term price to fluctuate between 8400 and 9000 [140]. - **Rapeseed Oil Option**: Volatility decreased compared to last year, and the market has obvious differences in the future price, with the range from 8200 to 11200 [144]. - **Rapeseed Meal Option**: Volatility decreased, and market participation declined. The market's price prediction range is from 2300 to 2600 [148][150]. 3.8 Full - Text Summary and Future Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: In 2026, global supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to fluctuate with a rising center. Domestic supply and demand will continue to be weak [153][155]. - **Cuisine Oils and Meals**: In 2026, global supply will turn loose, while domestic supply will be tight. Prices are expected to fluctuate, and the key factor is the development of China - Canada trade relations [156][157]. 3.9 Related Listed Company Stock Statistics The report provides stock price and year - to - date performance data of several listed companies in the grain and oil processing, feed processing, and aquaculture industries [159].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the corn futures price showed a "rise - fall - rise" trend. Looking ahead to 2026, the corn futures price is expected to rise first and then fall, with the key points being the release rhythm and time of old grain and the expected difference in total quantity confirmation. The price of CBOT corn may gradually bottom out and rebound, which will support the domestic corn market sentimentally. The consumption side is expected to be in a slow de - capacity game stage, and the domestic corn yield in the next year is initially expected to remain stable, but the weather uncertainty makes the driving force unclear. The expected fluctuation ranges of corn contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2200 - 2350, 2170 - 2340, and 2230 - 2360 respectively. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [2]. - In 2025, the center of the corn starch futures price did not change significantly, and the fluctuation trend was basically the same as that of the cost corn futures price, showing a "rise - fall - rise" rhythm. In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to remain relatively balanced, and the profit game will still be the main theme. The futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost. The expected operating ranges of corn starch contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 2480 - 2660, 2460 - 2670, and 2560 - 2700 respectively. It is also recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy, and trading enterprises can pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities at the upper edge of the interval [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - **Long - term Historical Review**: The corn futures price trend can be divided into six stages since 2004. Each stage is affected by policies, economic situations, and supply - demand relationships. For example, from 2004 - 2008, without the temporary storage purchase policy, the corn price rose continuously; from 2008 - 2015, the corn market was supported by the temporary storage purchase policy; from 2015 - 2016, it entered the post - temporary storage policy era, and the price fell sharply [13][14][18]. - **2025 Futures Market Summary**: The futures price of the main corn contract in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating pattern, which can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to mid - October, and rebounding from late October to November. The price center at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year [22]. - **2025 Spot Market Summary**: The corn spot price in 2025 showed an interval - oscillating trend, and the operating range at the end of the year was slightly higher than that at the beginning of the year. The price showed a "rise - fall - rebound" pattern, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather [24][26]. - **Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation**: In 2025, the trading activity of the corn futures market increased compared with the previous year. The cumulative trading volume from January to November was 163,009,844 lots, a year - on - year increase of 15.30%, and the cumulative trading volume was 36,872 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.33%. The overall position - holding level was slightly higher than that in 2024, showing a distribution characteristic of "high at both ends and low in the middle" [28]. 3.2 Corn Starch Long - term Trend and 2025 Market Review - **Long - term Historical Review**: The price trend of corn starch futures is highly correlated with that of corn futures. It can be divided into six stages since 2014, affected by factors such as corn price, supply - demand, and policies [35][36]. - **2025 Futures Market Summary**: The corn starch futures price in 2025 showed an oscillating trend, with limited change in the annual fluctuation center. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, falling from July to October, and rebounding in November, which is basically consistent with the trend of the raw material corn price [40]. - **2025 Spot Market Summary**: The corn starch spot price in 2025 first rose and then fell, following the trend of the raw material corn price. It can be divided into three stages: rising from January to June, consolidating narrowly from July to August, and falling from September to November [41]. - **Futures Trading and Position - holding Situation**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative trading volume of corn starch futures was 33,603,107 lots, a year - on - year increase of 3.66%, but the cumulative trading volume was 8,711.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%. The overall position - holding scale remained relatively stable, and the position - holding volume at the end of November was 330,503 lots, slightly higher than that in the same period of 2024 [45]. 3.3 Global Corn Market Situation - **2025/26 Global Corn Yield Estimated to Increase Year - on - Year**: The global corn yield in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high of 1.286 billion tons, an increase of 55.49 million tons compared with the previous year. The United States is the core driving force for the increase, with an estimated yield of 425.525 million tons, an increase of 47.257 million tons year - on - year [52]. - **Increasing Disagreements on 2026/27 Global Corn Yield**: In the 2026/27 season, the global corn planting area is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend. The influence of weather factors on yield is expected to be more prominent [57][58]. - **Steady and Slight Increase in Global Corn Demand**: The global corn consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 1.284 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.74%. Feed consumption is the main support, and industrial consumption also shows a slow - growth expectation [62]. - **CBOT Corn Price Expected to Bottom Out and Rebound**: In 2026, the supply side of the global corn market is expected to be stable, and the demand side shows structural highlights. The price of CBOT corn is expected to show a trend of rising in the first half of the year and oscillating at a high level in the second half of the year [66][67]. 3.4 Domestic Corn Market Situation - **Supply Market Analysis** - **Increasing Yield Pattern Set, Quality Differentiation and Purchase - Sales Rhythm Become Focus**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn yield is expected to increase, but there is significant regional quality differentiation in North China. The selling rhythm of farmers and traders will affect the price rhythm in different periods [71][72]. - **Limited Change in 2026/27 Planting Area, Weather Still the Dominant Factor for Yield**: The corn planting area in 2026 is expected to be relatively stable, and the yield is initially estimated to be stable with a slight increase. However, weather is still the key variable affecting the final yield [78]. - **2025/26 Import Volume Expected to Remain at a Low Level**: From January to October 2025, China's corn import volume was only 129.28 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.1%. In 2026, the import volume is expected to recover slightly but still remain at a low level [81][82]. - **Demand Market Analysis** - **Limited Increment in Feed Consumption, Substitution as the Anchor**: In 2026, the feed consumption of corn is expected to be stable with limited increment. The breeding industry is expected to continue to reduce capacity slowly, and substitution by other grains will cause periodic disturbances [85][86]. - **2025/26 Industrial Consumption Expected to be Stable**: The domestic corn industrial consumption market is expected to maintain a "stable with a slight increase" pattern in the 2025/26 season. However, the starch and alcohol industries are affected by cost pressure and have weak support for corn consumption [108][109]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand is expected to remain relatively balanced. The supply side shows a stable year - on - year trend, and the demand side also maintains a stable expectation [116]. 3.5 Corn Starch Market Fundamentals - **Supply Market Analysis - Yield Expected to Decrease Slightly Year - on - Year under the Expectation of Profit Convergence**: In 2025, the corn starch industry was under the triple pressure of weak demand, high cost, and low profit, and the yield decreased significantly. In 2026, the industry is still expected to face the contradiction of rising cost and weak demand, and the yield is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [118]. - **Demand Market Analysis - Insufficient Incremental Drivers**: In 2026, the terminal consumption of corn starch is expected to continue the stable and weak trend, lacking growth highlights. The consumption is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [121]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis**: In 2026, the supply and demand of corn starch in China are expected to decline. The industry is expected to show a relatively balanced state [124]. 3.6 Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The spread between corn starch and corn is recommended to be treated with an interval - trading idea. Currently, the spreads in May and September are in the middle - low range, and there is limited downward space. In the short term, the spread is expected to continue to shrink, and there is a repair expectation in the medium term [129]. - **Corn Cross - Period Arbitrage**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the May - March contract spread and going short on the May - September contract spread of corn. The current fundamentals support the May contract the most [131]. 3.7 Seasonal Analysis - **Seasonal Analysis of Corn Index Price**: According to the seasonal chart of the corn futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [133]. - **Seasonal Analysis of Corn Starch Index Price**: According to the seasonal chart of the corn starch futures index, the prices are more likely to rise in January, February, April, and October and more likely to fall in July. Seasonal rules are only for reference [138]. 3.8 Corn and Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions - **Corn Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions**: In 2026, the supply - side focuses on the release rhythm of grain sources, yield expectations, and import market changes. The demand - side focuses on the breeding and deep - processing markets. The overall consumption of corn is expected to be weak, but periodic disturbances are still the focus. The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [142][143][145]. - **Corn Starch Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions**: In 2026, the supply - demand of the corn starch market is expected to be relatively balanced, and the profit game is still the main theme. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [149]. 3.9 Option Market Analysis and Operation Strategy - **Corn Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy**: Based on the judgment that the corn 2605 contract fluctuates in the range of 2200 - 2400, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [155]. - **Corn Starch Option Market Situation and Operation Strategy**: Based on the judgment that the corn starch 2603 contract fluctuates in the range of 2460 - 2670, upstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options, downstream enterprises are recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and speculators are recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [162]. 3.10 Related Stock Price Changes - The report lists the stock price changes of several companies related to the corn industry in 2025, such as Muyuan Co., Ltd. with a rise of 29.77%, New Hope with a rise of 3.42%, and Zhengbang Technology with a fall of 13.82% [163].

白糖市场2026年年报 白糖：潮生自有回落处 江阔终归海样深 ——2025年白糖市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 ➢ 摘要： 2025 年底随着我国南方蔗糖厂开榨，国内新糖供应递增，叠加年内糖进口放量， 国内糖期现货价格齐跌。目前郑糖主力合约技术层面仍处于下行通道，各月份合约 也形成了近强远弱的反向市场格局，体现出市场对于后市价格的悲观预期。 2026 年全球食糖供应宽松格局持续，国际糖价预计仍将偏弱运行。目前巴西榨 季进入尾声，一季度关注印度及泰国糖开榨产量及出口落地情况。市场预计新榨季 两国糖增产，并且印度将糖出口配额上调至 150 万吨，但印度糖目前出口倒挂，关 注印度政府是否会采取出口补贴等手段完成其出口任务。2026 年一季度斋月备货也 正值巴西停榨的窗口期，往年来看这一阶段国际糖价易涨难跌，预计 2026 年一季度 国际原糖价格同样有望止跌反弹，而印度如果此时增加糖的出口或将限制糖价的涨 幅。目前来看，巴西糖生产情况较为乐观，弱拉尼娜背景下巴西甘蔗减产的概率不 大，2026 年巴西糖仍有望增产，并且巴西玉米乙醇成本低于甘蔗乙醇，巴西政府提 升乙醇强 ...