Report Structure and Content Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Not explicitly stated, but the report comprehensively analyzes the supply - demand situations of pure benzene and styrene, including historical and future trends 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Part I: Pure Benzene/Styrene Market Review - Reviews the historical and 2025 market conditions of pure benzene and styrene, and analyzes futures trading volume and open interest [5] Part II: Cost - side Market Review and Outlook - Not elaborated in the provided text Part III: Pure Benzene Supply Analysis - The expected growth rate of pure benzene production capacity will slow down - The supply of pure benzene will increase steadily - The import volume of pure benzene will remain at a high level [5] Part IV: Pure Benzene Demand Analysis - The growth rate of downstream production capacity is expected to slow down - The demand for pure benzene will continue to grow slightly [5] Part V: Styrene Supply Analysis - Styrene investment plans are decreasing, and the industry's production capacity growth rate may slow down - The supply pressure of styrene may be relieved - Analyzes styrene plant profit and basis - Styrene imports have shrunk to a low level, and exports are growing slowly [5] Part VI: Styrene Downstream Demand Analysis - The growth rate of terminal demand has slowed down - The EPS industry faces high inventory pressure and squeezed profits - The PS production capacity is gradually being released, and prices are under pressure - There is a large amount of new ABS production capacity, and the supply pressure remains high [5] Part VII: Styrene Port Inventory Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text Part VIII: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Provides supply - demand balance sheet forecasts for pure benzene and styrene [11] Part IX: Technical Analysis and Seasonal Trends - Conducts technical analysis and seasonal trend analysis on styrene [5] Part X: Option Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text Part XI: Summary and Operation Suggestions - Not elaborated in the provided text Part XII: Industry - related Stocks - Lists some industry - related stocks and their closing prices and annual price changes [11][104] 4. New Device Production and Investment Plan Summary Pure Benzene New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2026, multiple pure benzene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2430,000 tons [30] - From 2025 - 2026, some hydrogenated benzene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 371,000 tons [31] Pure Benzene Downstream New Device Production and Investment Plan (Excluding Styrene) - In 2025, new devices of multiple pure benzene downstream industries (excluding styrene) are put into operation, with a total production capacity of about 2,262,000 tons [40][41] Styrene New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, multiple styrene production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 4160,000 tons [47][48][69] EPS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some EPS production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2160,000 tons [74] PS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some PS production devices are planned to be put into operation, with a total planned production capacity of about 2,935,000 tons [81] ABS New Device Production and Investment Plan - In 2025 - 2026, some ABS production devices are planned to be put into operation, but the specific total production capacity is not clearly summarized in a unified manner [5] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Data Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2016 - 2026E, it shows the data of the beginning inventory, production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes of pure benzene [91] Styrene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - For 2025E and 2026E, it shows the data of the beginning inventory, production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, ending inventory, and inventory changes of styrene [92] 6. Price Fluctuation Data - Provides the monthly price change rates of pure benzene and styrene from 2013 - 2025 [97][99] 7. Industry - related Stocks - Lists the stocks of companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Huajin Co., Ltd., Sinopec, PetroChina, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, along with their closing prices and annual price changes [11][104]

➢ 摘要： 1 | 3 | | --- | | 3 | | 4 | | 7 | | 13 | | 14 | | 16 | | 16 | | 23 | | 27 | | 30 | | 36 | | 36 | | 37 | | 38 | | 40 | | 41 | | 43 | | 43 | | 46 | | 48 | | 48 | | 49 | | 51 | 3 4 图 1-1：1980-2026 年 IMF 对于全球实际 GDP 增速统计和预测 数据来源：Wind、方正中期期货研究院整理 5 数据来源：Wind、方正中期期货研究院整理 6 前三季度/上半年 同比 环比 同比 环比 同比 环比 同比 美 国 2.0% -0.2% 2.1% 0.9% 2.1% 加拿大 2.9% 0.5% 1.6% -0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 2.0% 欧 盟 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 1.6% 英 国 1.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 1.5% 瑞 士 2.5% -1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% -0.9% 1.4% 日 本 1.6% 0.4% 1.9% 0 ...

➢ 摘要： 2025 年沪铝震荡上行，氧化铝则持续一路走弱。铸造铝合金自上市后行情走势基 本与沪铝同频。 2025 年产业链上游紧张态势有所缓解。矿石进口量增加，国内矿山生产扰动相对 有限。氧化铝产能开工率维持高位，且有多项新产能及复产产能陆续投放。然而，随 着氧化铝现货价格大幅下跌、利润显著收缩甚至陷入亏损，部分高成本产能已出现停 产检修。未来，停产产能与新投、复产产能之间的博弈将成为影响氧化铝价格的核心 因素。电解铝环节因成本下降、利润大幅提升，开工率随之上升，在产产能近乎满负 荷运行，预计 2026 年这一态势仍将延续。 下游加工行业开工率呈现明显分化：建筑型材、板带箔等传统领域表现平淡，而 线缆、合金及工业型材等领域则相对亮眼。终端需求中，新能源相关产业及电网建设 领域保持良好增长。预计 2026 年新能源汽车产销量增速可能随补贴退坡而放缓，但电 网建设在"十五五"新规划周期内仍将维持较高增长水平。库存方面则存在一定隐忧： 行业铸锭量持续偏低导致库存重心不断下移，低库存水平削弱了价格缓冲空间，这一 点从每逢交割临近时盘面资金的活跃度即可见一斑。 展望 2026 年，全球宏观环境的复杂性与严峻性仍将显著 ...

玻璃纯碱市场 2026 年年报 玻璃纯碱：春寒料峭处 双碳谋新篇 ——2025 年玻璃纯碱市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年浮法玻璃行业产线运行情况相对平稳，年内浮法玻璃日熔量稳定运行在16 万吨下方。截至12月初全国浮法玻璃生产线共计284条，在产216条，日熔量共计 154555吨。尽管玻璃需求和价格走势整体偏弱，年中玻璃价格受季节性因素及利好 消息带动波动显著，为行业带来盈利或者减亏的可能。玻璃产能稳定运行显示当前行 业亏损幅度及亏损周期尚不足以引发更多玻璃产线冷修从而带动行情反转。2026年玻 璃行业或将经历需求倒逼供应减量的市场化出清阶段。2026年度玻璃期现货价格波动 的核心区间为850-1250元/吨。 2025年纯碱供应形势保持平稳，岁末年初有新装置投产，2026年纯碱产能有进一 步增加预期。行业过剩压力增加，亏损程度加深。由于供应增加和需求下滑态势或于 2026年延续，纯碱产业需要积极关注期货及期权工具对管理生产经营风险的重要作用， 积极关注盘面情绪波动给出的套保机会。2026年度纯碱期现货价格波动的核心区间为 100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the planting area of new - season US soybeans decreased significantly year - on - year. There is a high possibility of further reducing the yield per unit in January, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of 3 - 5 million tons in production. The CBOT soybean price is expected to have limited downside, with a support level at 1000 - 1050 cents per bushel, and the price center is expected to rise to 1200 - 1300 cents per bushel. South American soybean premiums are expected to be weak [2][210][246]. - In the domestic market, domestic soybean production is expected to increase again in the 2025/26 season. The price of soybean No. 1 is likely to rise in the first quarter of 2026, with an upper limit of 4300 - 4350 yuan per ton, and may be weak in the second and third quarters, with a lower limit of 3750 - 3800 yuan per ton. The market for soybean meal and soybean oil is expected to be strong first and then weak in 2026 [4][220][247]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Part 1: Market Review - **2025 CBOT Soybean Price Bottomed out and Rose**: The long - term cycle of US soybean prices is about 4 - 5 years. In 2025, the price was affected by trade frictions, soybean production, and biodiesel policies. The non - commercial net position of CBOT soybeans turned positive in the second quarter, and the speculative market maintained a bullish sentiment [20][24][27]. - **2025 Chinese Crushed Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Centers Rose**: The prices of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal showed a volatile upward trend. The market changed from "strong reality + weak expectation" before May to "weak reality + strong expectation" after May, mainly affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, trade relations, and biodiesel policies [31]. - **2025 Chinese Soybean Oil Price Rose**: The main - contract price of soybean oil on the DCE found support at 7500 yuan per ton and stabilized above 8000 yuan per ton. It was affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, geopolitical conflicts, and biodiesel policies [43]. - **2025 Chinese Edible Soybean Market Price Strengthened**: The futures price of soybean No. 1 on the DCE ended a three - year decline. The increase was mainly due to the active acquisition by middle - stream traders and the support of state - owned grain reserves. There was a structural supply shortage of high - protein soybeans [47]. Part 2: Global Soybean Supply - Demand Situation Analysis - **Global Oilseed Market Supply is Sufficient**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production increased to 685 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, it is expected to reach 690 million tons. The growth rate of soybean production has slowed down, while the demand growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand situation has eased [52]. - **US Soybean Supply - Demand is First Loose and Then Tight**: - **Production Decline**: The planting area of new - season US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, and the yield per unit may also decline. The production is expected to be between 114 - 116 million tons, a decrease of 3 - 5 million tons compared to the previous year [66]. - **Demand Analysis**: US soybean demand mainly comes from crushing and exports. Crushing consumption is affected by biodiesel policies, and exports depend on China's purchases. In recent years, crushing consumption has been strong, while export demand has decreased [76]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: Due to the decline in production and the increase in crushing consumption, the inventory - consumption ratio of new - season US soybeans may decrease, supporting the upward movement of the CBOT soybean price center in 2026 [93]. - **South American Soybean Premiums Declined**: In 2025, South American soybeans had a good harvest. Brazilian soybean premiums were strong before October but declined later due to Sino - US trade negotiations. The sowing of new - season South American soybeans is going smoothly, and premiums are expected to remain under pressure [94][95][96]. Part 3: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Situation - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Continuous Production Increase**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic soybean production is expected to approach 21 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the sowing area in Heilongjiang. The planting cost has decreased, and there are various subsidies [132]. - **Consumption Needs Improvement**: About 90% of domestic soybeans are used for food processing. The demand for domestic non - genetically modified soybeans has room for growth, especially in the crushing sector. The consumption of domestic soybeans is affected by policies and the market [133]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: In 2025, domestic soybeans had a good harvest, and the supply was sufficient. The price had a strong support at the bottom but lacked the driving force for continuous upward movement [141]. - **Crushed Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Increased Import Cost**: In 2025, the import cost of soybeans in China increased, mainly due to the rise in the CBOT soybean price, the increase in South American soybean premiums, and the change in the exchange rate. The crushing profit first increased and then decreased [143]. - **Increased Bean Imports and Arrivals**: In 2025, the import and arrival of soybeans in China increased, with a record high in October. The imports of soybean meal and soybean oil were relatively small and had little impact on the market [158][165][167]. - **Beans Inventory Remained at a High Level**: In 2025, the inventory of the domestic crushed soybean industry chain first decreased and then increased. Currently, the inventory of crushed soybeans is at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of soybean oil is around the average level. The inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline in the fourth quarter [169][170][171]. - **Terminal Demand Situation**: - **Soybean Meal Consumption is Expected to Turn from Strong to Weak**: In 2025, the feed production in China increased significantly. However, as the aquaculture industry falls into losses, the production capacity and inventory of pigs and poultry are expected to decline in 2026, and feed consumption is expected to decrease. The substitution of rapeseed meal and wheat for soybean meal has both positive and negative effects, but overall, the feed consumption of soybean meal in 2025 is expected to continue to increase, and it is estimated to decrease to 76.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of 2.57% [178][179][180]. - **Soybean Oil Consumption is Weak**: In the 2024/25 season, the edible consumption of oils in China decreased. Since May 2025, the downstream inventory of oils has been inactive. Although the price of soybean oil futures has risen, the overall consumption of oils is still weak, but the consumption share of soybean oil is increasing [198]. Part 4: International Soybean Market Logic and US Soybean Price Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the impact of the decline in US soybean production, trade relations, and biodiesel policies on the CBOT soybean price, and the expected weak performance of South American soybean premiums [210]. Part 5: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Balance and Market Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, including the prediction of the price trend of domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026, and the impact of supply and demand factors [220][221][247]. Part 6: Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Basis Trend is Expected to be Strong First and Then Weak**: The basis of domestic soybean meal in 2025 was weak. In 2026, the basis is expected to be strong in the first quarter and decline after April [230]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spread is Expected to Remain Low**: Due to the tense Sino - Canadian trade relations and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to remain low in 2026 [235]. - **Bean Oil - Meal Ratio is Bearish in the Medium and Long Term**: The supply - side logics of soybean meal and soybean oil are similar, but the demand - side performance is different. The bean oil - meal ratio is expected to rise first and then fall, and short - term long and medium - to - long - term short operations are recommended [238]. Part 7: Main Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Comprehensive Judgment and Operational Strategy**: The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, providing specific price ranges and operational suggestions for the price trends of CBOT soybeans, domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026 [246][247][248]. - **Futures and Options Operational Strategy**: In 2026, the soybean meal market is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day. The price of soybean oil is expected to be high first and then low. It is recommended to take long positions with a light position or sell out - of - the - money put options in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day [249]. - **Seasonal Trend of Bean Index**: Relevant figures are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. Part 8: Related Stocks - The report lists the price changes of related stocks in 2025, including companies in the feed, soybean planting and trading, aquaculture, and oil processing industries [273].

碳酸锂：非经一番寒彻骨 哪得梅花扑鼻香 碳酸锂市场 2026 年年报 方正中期期货研究院 有色贵金属与新能源团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年上半年上游锂矿石到下游正极材料、电芯价格整体延续此前两年的下 跌趋势，碳酸锂价格于6月份跌破6万元大关；下半年市场供需好转预期改善，动力电 池和储能电池对碳酸锂的需求携手放量带动碳酸锂连续四个月库存去化，价格于四季 度回升至10万元关口附近。由于钴资源供应受到非洲主要产地地缘因素影响价格年内 显著走强，三元材料价格较磷酸铁锂系列表现相对坚挺。 ——2025 年碳酸锂市场回顾与 2026 年展望 据供需平衡表测算，2026年锂盐供需两旺同时年度级别看库存累积的态势仍 将延续，储能端对锂资源需求超预期向好，能一定程度对冲新能源汽车需求增速下滑 的担忧。锂盐价格仍处于向历史低位区间（6万元下方）回归的进程中。2026年上半 年平衡表的主要矛盾是新能源汽车需求阶段性回落；2026年下半年平衡表的主要矛盾 是国内外锂盐新增产能的集中释放。与此前的宽幅波动相比，即便将来锂价新的周期 到来，随着低成本盐湖及回收提锂（生产环节成本较低）占比提升，锂盐长期稳定运 行的基础 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the tin price showed an overall upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the tight supply situation at the mine end is expected to ease, with a likely front - tight and back - loose pattern. The smelting end's operating rate is expected to gradually recover, and processing fees may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, benefiting from the semiconductor industry. The tin price in 2026 is expected to remain strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [2][90][92]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Tin Price Trend Review - Since 2011, the tin price has gone through eight stages: a continuous decline from the second half of 2011 to the end of 2015 due to global economic concerns; a sharp rise from the end of 2015 to the end of 2016 due to supply - side structural reforms; an oscillatory trend from early 2017 to April 2019 as supply exceeded demand; a continuous decline from April 2019 to March 2020 due to trade disputes and the COVID - 19 pandemic; a new high from April 2021 to March 2022 due to loose policies and supply - demand imbalance; a sharp fall from March to October 2022 due to Fed rate hikes; an oscillatory trend from November 2022 to March 2024 under the influence of supply - side disturbances and a falling US dollar index; and a strong rise and subsequent high - level oscillation from March 2024 to the present [10][11][13]. 3.1.2 2025 Tin Market Review - **Tin Futures Price Review**: The tin price in 2025 showed a pattern of rising first, then falling, and then rising again. In the first quarter, it rose due to tight mine - end supply. In mid - March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo pushed up bullish sentiment. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, there was a systemic risk, followed by a narrow - range oscillation. In September, the price rose again due to supply issues and the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling [15]. - **Tin Spot and Premium/Discount**: In 2025, the domestic tin spot was at a discount, while the LME tin premium/discount hovered around 0 [19]. 3.2 Macro - analysis - In 2025, the eurozone economy was relatively sluggish, with controllable inflation and a loose European Central Bank. The US economy had some resilience, but its growth momentum weakened, and the risk of recession increased. The Chinese economy showed resilience, but faced deflationary pressure. In 2026, the inflation in Europe and the US is expected to gradually decline, and major central banks are likely to continue the rate - cut cycle. The US economy may see moderate growth, while the eurozone's growth may remain low. China's macro - economic policies are expected to be more proactive, and the inflation environment may gradually improve [20]. 3.3 Tin Market Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Tin Ore Supply May Be Front - tight and Back - loose - In 2025, there were many disruptions in tin ore supply, such as the suspension of mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. From 2025 - 2026, new projects are few, and the ore increment is limited. In 2026, the global tin ore production is expected to increase slightly by about 4,500 metal tons, reaching about 360,000 tons. China's tin ore production has been gradually decreasing in recent years, but showed a small increase in 2025. China's tin ore imports are expected to gradually increase in 2026. The tin ore price showed an upward - trending oscillation in 2025, and the processing fee was at a low level [24][25][26]. 3.3.2 Refined Tin Production Will Maintain Growth - In 2025, the domestic refined tin production of sample enterprises increased year - on - year. Overseas, there was a supply shortage in the first 9 months of 2025. In general, the tight mine - end supply in the past two years affected the smelting capacity. The smelting operating rate is expected to gradually rebound in 2026, with a slightly higher growth rate than in 2025. In 2025, the refined tin import window was mostly closed, and China became a net exporter of refined tin. The short - term import window is difficult to open [38][42][43]. 3.4 Tin Market Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Tin - plated Sheet Production Declined While Exports Increased - In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. In 2025, it declined significantly due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and weak domestic demand. However, exports increased, mainly due to strong external demand and China's cost - advantage. But the future export situation may be affected by the substitution of new materials and trade - relief investigations [47][48]. 3.4.2 Lead - acid Battery Production Increased Significantly - In recent years, the rapid development of the e - bike, express delivery, and takeout industries supported the consumption of lead - acid batteries. In 2025, the production growth rate accelerated, but exports declined year - on - year [56]. 3.4.3 The Growth Cycle of Electronic Products May Be Near the End - In 2023, the downward cycle of electronic products turned around. In 2024, they showed positive growth. In 2025, the growth rate of computer and smartphone production slowed down. In 2026, the growth rate of production and sales of computers and mobile phones is expected to slow down but remain positive [60]. 3.4.4 Integrated Circuit Production Will Maintain Rapid Growth - Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. The growth rate accelerated in the second half of the second quarter and then declined in the third - quarter off - season. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, the production and sales of integrated circuits are expected to maintain high - speed growth in the medium and long term [63]. 3.4.5 The Photovoltaic Industry Is in a Transition from the High - speed Development Stage - In 2024 and 2025, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly. However, the industry faces over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. The global new - installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to reach 665GW, and the new tin demand is expected to reach about 43,000 tons [66]. 3.4.6 The New - energy Vehicle Industry Maintains Growth - In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Due to the cost - advantage and policy support, the sales will continue to grow. In the long - term, the growth rate will slow down, but the marginal increment is still significant. In 2026, the production and sales growth rate is expected to be between 15 - 20% [71]. 3.5 Tin Inventory First Rose and Then Fell - In 2024, the inventories of the two major exchanges showed different trends. In 2025, the SHFE inventory first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The LME inventory decreased first and then increased. As of December 1, the total inventory of the two exchanges was at a medium level. The LME tin premium/discount narrowed in 2025, and the import window was intermittently open [74][77]. 3.6 Global Refined Tin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - Since 2018, the global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months. In 2025, the supply was tight in the first half and loose in the second half, while demand continued to grow. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will also grow moderately, maintaining a tight - balance situation [80]. 3.7 Seasonal and Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Seasonal Analysis - Historically, the tin price is weakest in March, and the probability of decline is high in March, August, September, and October. It often performs strongly in January, July, and December. In 2025, the tin price showed a wide - range oscillation, with most months showing a decline except April [83]. 3.7.2 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line of the Shanghai Tin main contract, in March 2025, the price broke through the 270,000 - yuan mark and then fell back. In August, it accelerated its rise, filled the gap after the Tomb - sweeping Festival, and broke through the previous high of the year. In the short - term, the upward momentum is not exhausted, and it may approach the historical high in 2022 [87]. 3.8 LME Position Analysis - In the past three years, the tin price has maintained a wide - range oscillation. Investment funds generally held a net - long position, which increased significantly in the second half of 2025. Investment companies, credit institutions, and commercial enterprises held different positions. As of November 28, 2025, investment companies and credit institutions had a net - long position of 2,309 lots, investment funds had a net - long position of 5,002 lots, and commercial enterprises had a net - long position of - 6,339 lots [89]. 3.9 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - In 2025, the tin price showed an upward - trending oscillation. In 2026, the supply at the mine end is expected to ease, the smelting operating rate may recover, and the processing fee may slightly rebound. The tin solder sector is expected to continue to grow. The tin price in 2026 is expected to be strong, showing a trend of rising first and then falling with an overall upward - shifted center. The main operating range of Shanghai Tin is expected to be between 250,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME Tin is expected to be between 30,000 - 48,000 US dollars/ton [90][92]. 3.10 Related Stocks - Stocks such as Yunnan Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), Xingye Co., Ltd. (603928.SH), Yintai Gold Co., Ltd. (000975.SZ), and others are related to the tin industry. Their stock prices showed different monthly and annual growth rates [93].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, copper was the most outstanding variety in the non - ferrous metal sector, with the best supply - demand fundamentals, the strongest financial attributes, and the smoothest upward logic. Its annual increase was the largest since 2009 [1]. - In 2026, copper is expected to be one of the strongest - performing commodities. The supply of copper concentrates will be tighter than in 2025, and the global copper supply - demand pattern will shift from a tight balance to a supply shortage. The copper - gold ratio has room for significant repair, and valuation repair may become the underlying driver of copper price increases in 2026. The expected trading range of the main Shanghai copper contract is 89,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton as the support and 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton as the resistance [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Long - term Copper Price Trend Analysis and 2025 Trend Review - **Copper Price Historical Trend Review**: From the 1990s to 2023, copper prices experienced five major upward cycles, mainly driven by factors such as economic growth, financial attributes, and supply - demand imbalances. Since 2024, the contradiction of tight global copper mine supply has been prominent, and in 2025, the structural contradiction of refined copper inventory dominated the copper price trend [13][14][19]. - **2025 Copper Price Trend Review**: In 2025, the copper price showed different trends in different stages. In the first quarter, it oscillated strongly; in April, it recovered after a decline; from May to August, it fluctuated at a high level; from September to December, it entered a second main upward wave and reached a new high. Supply - side disturbances and demand - side changes were the main driving factors [22][24][27]. Second Part: Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Influencing Factors - **Domestic Economic K - shaped Differentiation, New and Old Kinetic Energies at Two Extremes**: In 2025, China's economic growth kinetic energy shifted from investment to consumption and exports. Investment also shifted from traditional infrastructure and real estate to high - end manufacturing, digital economy, and new energy. The anti - involution policy in the third quarter boosted inflation to some extent. In 2026, China's economy will continue this transformation trend, and copper will benefit from strong demand in related fields [33][42][44]. - **The US Dollar Index Enters the Middle of the Downtrend, and the US Manufacturing Industry Enters the Expansion Cycle**: In the future, the US copper demand has great growth potential. The US manufacturing industry has been performing strongly, and the "Creation Mission" plan will increase copper demand. The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline in 2026, which will boost the copper price from a valuation perspective [56][57][72]. Third Part: Spot Premiums and Discounts No specific summary content provided in the text, only a figure about the seasonal trend of spot premiums and discounts is mentioned [75]. Fourth Part: Global Copper Supply Analysis - **Frequent Disturbances in Global Copper Mine Supply, Strong Constraints on Copper Concentrate Production**: In the long - term, global copper mines face problems such as slow production growth and declining grades. In 2025, supply disturbances increased, and the annual production growth rate was expected to be less than 2%. The global competition for copper resources is intensifying. In 2026, the supply of copper concentrates is expected to remain tight [78][79][95]. - **The Tight Supply of the Mining End Has Not Been Transmitted to the Smelting End, and China's Electrolytic Copper Production Has Reached Record Highs**: In 2025, although the supply of copper concentrates in China was tight and TC processing fees hit a record low, electrolytic copper production still increased significantly, mainly due to new capacity, high prices of by - products, and the substitution of scrap copper. In 2026, the supply of copper concentrates will still be tight, and China's electrolytic copper production is expected to remain at a high level but may slightly decline year - on - year [107][108][111]. - **The Spread between Refined and Scrap Copper Widens, and the Supply of Recycled Copper Resources Is Tight**: In 2025, the supply of scrap copper in China was tight, mainly due to concerns about tariffs on US scrap copper imports and policy impacts on recycled copper rod enterprises. In 2026, the situation of tight scrap copper supply may continue [123][124][127]. - **The Willingness to Export Electrolytic Copper Has Significantly Increased, and Imports Have Decreased**: In 2025, affected by the expected US tariff on copper imports, the export willingness of electrolytic copper in China increased, and imports decreased. The demand for copper concentrate imports increased [132][133][134]. Fifth Part: Global Inventory Structural Contradictions Are Prominent Since 2024, the impact of the global copper inventory structure on the price has been increasing. In 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges increased, but the COMEX inventory increased significantly, while the Shanghai and London inventories were maintained at low levels. In 2026, the structural contradiction of global copper inventory is expected to remain difficult to resolve [141][142][143]. Sixth Part: Copper Demand Analysis - **China's Copper Product Output Reached a Record High, and the Output Growth Rates of Refined Copper Rods and Copper Foil Were Obvious**: In 2025, China's copper product output reached a record high, with the output of refined copper rods and copper foil growing rapidly. In 2026, the output growth rate of refined copper rods is expected to increase, while the output of copper tubes and copper rods may decline, and the demand for copper foil is expected to continue to grow at a high rate [149][150][151]. - **Power Grid and New Energy Demand Are Strong, and Real Estate Demand Continues to Be Weak**: In 2025, power grid investment increased, while real estate investment declined, and the demand for copper in the home appliance sector weakened. In 2026, power grid investment is expected to achieve double - digit growth, while real estate and home appliance demand are expected to have limited improvement [169][170][171]. - **New Energy and AI Fields Are Expected to Be Important Sources of Future Copper Demand Increases**: In 2025, the copper consumption in the new energy industry increased. In the future, the new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20%, and the copper demand in the AI field is expected to increase explosively. By 2030, the combined copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to account for 22% of the total demand [181][182][185]. Seventh Part: Arbitrage Analysis In 2025, there were differences in the price increases of major global copper markets in the first half of the year. The copper - to - zinc ratio continued to rise. In 2026, the copper - to - zinc ratio is expected to continue to increase, and the copper - to - London ratio still has room to decline [202][204]. Eighth Part: Position Analysis In 2025, the net long positions in the COMEX copper futures and options market increased significantly, and the long positions of LME copper investment funds also increased. The investment funds had an obvious impact on the copper price [210]. Ninth Part: Seasonal Analysis Copper prices tend to perform well in January, March, October, November, and December, mainly due to demand - side factors such as policy support and seasonal demand peaks [215]. Tenth Part: Copper Options Market Analysis In 2025, the implied volatility of copper options showed an upward trend, and the option market was bullish on copper prices. In 2026, the implied volatility center of copper is expected to move up, which is beneficial to option buyers [218]. Eleventh Part: Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In 2025, the global copper market's supply - surplus situation improved. In 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a supply surplus to a supply shortage, with an expected shortage of 150,000 tons [226]. Twelfth Part: Technical Trend Analysis From a technical perspective, copper has broken through the nearly 20 - year oscillation range since 2006, and the future upward space is promising [232]. Thirteenth Part: Full - text Summary and Operational Suggestions In 2026, copper is expected to be one of the strongest - performing commodities. The supply - demand pattern will shift to a shortage. The recommended operations are for downstream demanders to conduct long - hedging in far - month contracts, for spot holders to hold and wait for price increases, and for option buyers to consider buying call options [235][236]. Fourteenth Part: Related Stocks The report lists the performance of some copper - related stocks in 2025, including their year - to - date price increases and current prices [237].

氯碱市场2026年年报 氯碱：碱海潮生复潮落 V风深谷待春雷 ——2025年氯碱市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 夏聪聪 Z0012870 摘要： 2025 年，PVC 市场供需维持宽松态势，高库存成为市场常态。PVC 处于产业周 期的低迷筑底阶段，走势尚未企稳，面临低估值、弱驱动的困局。产业链上下游表 现均低迷，原料电石低位运行，PVC 成本端偏低，尽管自身价格回落，面临生产压 力增加，但大部分生产装置运行平稳，行业开工高位波动，市场可流通货源充裕。 下游市场持续低迷对 PVC 市场形成拖累，由于终端订单不佳，下游制品厂生产缺乏 积极性，市场面临开工不足。管材/管件、型材/门窗均与房地产挂钩，而地产仍处于 调整阶段，PVC 需求回暖乏力。供应稳定，而需求疲弱，华东及华南地区社会库存 居高不下。受到相关政策的扰动，PVC 出口增长势头突出，一定程度上缓解国内市 场压力，但难以主导 PVC 行情走势。2026 年，PVC 企业投产计划寥寥无几，产能增 速或放缓，若企业亏损持续扩大，可能出现检修或减产情况，而下游需求复苏略显 乏力，价格优势下出口或保持平稳增长态势。2026 年，PVC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the apple futures price showed an overall upward trend with the core driver being continuous unfavorable weather, which led to the downward revision of supply - side expectations. In 2026, whether the apple futures price will continue to rise or fall after reaching a high depends on the weather. The marginal driving force for further upward movement is weakening, and the price is expected to enter a topping stage. The apple 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall [2][3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Review 1.1 Futures Market Analysis - **Long - term Trends**: Since the listing of apple futures in 2017, the price has experienced multiple fluctuations, affected by factors such as market understanding, supply - demand situation, weather, and changes in delivery standards [11] - **2025 Trends**: The 2025 apple active contract price showed an obvious upward trend, divided into three main stages. The 01 contract went through four stages: "month - changing and reaching a high - supply - demand stalemate - expectation - driven - reality - realization". The core driver shifted from delivery logic to concerns about the yield and quality of new - season apples [20][24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of apple futures continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 20,315,094 lots, a year - on - year decrease of 10.21%, and the cumulative turnover was 1,584.078 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. The open interest was relatively stable from January to September and slightly increased in October [25] 1.2 Spot Market Analysis - In 2025, the domestic apple spot price showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with regional differences. In Shandong, the price trend was relatively complex, rising slightly from January to April, remaining stable from May to June, falling slightly from July to August, and rising moderately from September to November. In Shaanxi, the price rose slightly in the first half of the year and showed a stable "high - opening and stable - running" pattern in the second half [34] Part 2: Apple Supply Market Analysis - **This Season's Yield and Premium Fruit Rate**: The yield is expected to be at a low level in the past five years, and the premium fruit rate of some key indicators is lower than that in 2024, mainly due to unfavorable weather during the growth period [37] - **This Season's Peak Inventory Level**: The peak inventory level of apples this season is the lowest in the past five years, which further strengthens the market's expectation of medium - to - long - term supply tightening [45] - **Next Season's Supply Expectation**: Although the upstream profit has been repaired this season, the structural problems in the industry still exist. The supply in the next season is uncertain, and the weather is still the key variable affecting the yield [47] Part 3: Apple Demand Market Analysis - **Population and Disposable Income**: The population growth rate has slowed down in recent years, and the growth rate of per capita disposable income has also converged, resulting in insufficient support for terminal consumption [55] - **Total Fruit Output**: The total fruit output has been increasing continuously, with more supply varieties, longer supply periods of seasonal fruits, and a converging price system, which has continuously squeezed the consumption space of apples [59] - **2024/25 Consumption**: The apple consumption in the 2024/25 fruit season was mediocre, with no significant changes. The consumption in the 2025/26 fruit season is likely to continue the current pattern, and the core driver of consumption depends on the improvement of the overall economic environment and the restoration of consumer confidence [67] Part 4: Apple Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2025/26, the apple supply - demand expectation shows a slight downward trend. The supply is expected to decrease year - on - year, and the consumption also shows a stable - to - slightly - decreasing trend. The analysis of the supply - demand balance sheet is mainly based on the estimated yield, and it is difficult to guide the price significantly [76] Part 5: Seasonal Analysis - **Spot Price Seasonality**: The average wholesale price of Fuji apples has a relatively large increase probability in February, May - August, and a relatively large decrease probability in March, October - December, which is related to the growth cycle, holidays, and inventory levels of apples [78] - **Futures Price Seasonality**: The apple futures index has a relatively high probability of rising in February and April and a relatively high probability of falling in March, May, and December. Seasonal rules are only for reference [81] Part 6: Apple Market Outlook and Price Forecast - **Supply**: In 2026, the supply this season has tightened significantly, and the supply in the next season has a repair expectation, but it still depends on the weather [87] - **Demand**: The apple consumption in 2026 will continue the dull pattern, lacking driving factors. The consumption is mainly affected by the macro - consumption environment, and the consumption space is continuously squeezed [88] - **Price Forecast**: The apple futures price in 2026 is expected to enter a topping stage. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the high - level range of 8800 - 10500, and the 2610 contract is expected to rise first and then fall in the range of 7500 - 9500. For operation, it is recommended to buy on dips for the 2605 contract and sell on rallies for the 2610 contract [88] Part 7: Apple Options Market Analysis - **Options Market Situation**: Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Options Operation Strategies**: For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums; for downstream enterprises, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs; for speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [93] Part 8: Related Stock Price Changes - The stock prices of related companies such as Guotou Zhonglu, Honghui Fruit and Vegetable, etc. showed different degrees of changes in 2025. For example, Guotou Zhonglu increased by 52.34%, and Honghui Fruit and Vegetable increased by 106.51% [94]