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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q2 2025 met market expectations, but the fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and real estate sectors faced challenges. The export and industrial added - value in June exceeded expectations. The domestic real estate market continued to decline, and the Chinese economy may face challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand. The "anti - involution" policies may have a more moderate and long - term impact. Policy decisions may be made based on economic changes, and new policies may be introduced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter [84]. Summary by Related Content GDP and Industry Contribution - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% year - on - year respectively in Q2. The contributions of the three industries to GDP in Q2 were 4.6%, 34.2%, and 61.2% respectively [4][6]. GDP Growth Contribution Factors - In Q2 2025, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to GDP growth were 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0% respectively [9]. GDP Deflator - The GDP deflator in Q2 2025 decreased 1.20% year - on - year, showing a negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023 [12]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.7%. General infrastructure investment (including power) grew 8.9% year - on - year, while narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power) grew 4.6% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year [15]. Real Estate Market - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased 0.6% month - on - month. In July, the decline rate of national new housing sales area accelerated [18][21][23]. Social Consumption - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.6%. The growth rates of most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size decreased compared with May [26][28]. Service Industry - In June 2025, the service industry production index grew 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries were relatively high [30]. Foreign Trade - In June 2025, China's exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. In July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [33][36][38]. Industrial Sector - In June 2025, the added - value of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation. The product sales rate was 94.3%, and the industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74.0% [41][43][45]. Employment and Prices - In June 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%. The CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year. In July, agricultural product prices hovered at a low level, and the average domestic gasoline price was higher than that in June [47][49][57]. Manufacturing and Non - Manufacturing PMI - In July 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The manufacturing production continued to expand, while the demand re - entered the contraction range. The service industry activity expectation index increased slightly [68][71][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy faces challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, and policies may be introduced around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. The short - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market may have ended, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern. In the context of the moderately loose monetary policy, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [104] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - **Trend of Treasury Bond Futures Active Contracts**: In the first half of July, the main contract of treasury bond futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's statement on July 18, the market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell rapidly. After the Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting on July 30, treasury bond futures prices stopped falling and rebounded [7] - **Yield of Treasury Bond Spot**: In July, the closing yield of 10 - year treasury bond spot rose from 1.65% at the end of June to a maximum of 1.75% and closed at 1.70% on July 31; the closing yield of 30 - year treasury bond spot rose from 1.86% at the end of June to a maximum of 2.00% and closed at 1.95% on July 31 [9] - **Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Spot**: Compared with the end of June, the yield - to - maturity curve of treasury bond spot at the end of July shifted upward as a whole. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 6BP, 6BP, 5BP, and 9BP respectively [12] 3.2. Current Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP deflator in the second quarter decreased by 1.20% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment in the first half of the year increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The real estate market continued to decline, with the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreasing year - on - year, and the price of second - hand housing in first, second, and third - tier cities falling [17][19][22] - **Consumption Data**: In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. Most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size saw a decline in growth rate compared with May [33][35] - **Service Industry Data**: In June, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of some industries such as information technology and leasing and business services were relatively high [37] - **Foreign Trade Data**: In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 114.77 billion US dollars. In July, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [40][45] - **Industrial Data**: In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The product sales rate decreased, and the capacity utilization rate in the second quarter decreased compared with the previous quarter. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable [48][50][52] - **Price Data**: In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. In July, the agricultural product wholesale price hovered at a low level, and the South China Industrial Products Index rose [56][62][64] - **PMI Data**: In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The production index continued to expand, while the demand index re - entered the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, showing a decline [67][70][73] - **Financial Data**: In June, the social financing scale increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, and the RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan. At the end of June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was relatively stable, and the high interest rate spread between Chinese and US treasury bonds restricted the flexibility of domestic interest rate cuts. The market expects a high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September [76][80][89] - **Bond Market Data**: In July, DR001 had a larger fluctuation range, and the government bond net financing maintained a fast pace. The spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds slightly widened, and the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuated around 0.2% [92][95][99] 3.3. Strategy Recommendations - Given the current economic situation and policy environment, in the context of the moderately loose monetary policy, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [104]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies for corn, hog, and egg futures in the semi - annual report and regular reports have been verified by the market. For corn, the short - term price is under pressure, the medium - term new - season contract may first decline and then rise; for hogs, the short - term price may be strong, the medium - term supply increase makes continuous price rise difficult, and the long - term supply pressure may weaken if the policy is implemented; for eggs, the short - term price faces correction pressure, the medium - term may have a rebound, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge [8][15][57][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Period Review - In July, corn futures broke through and declined, hog futures rose first and then fell, and egg futures moved down. The strategies in the semi - annual report and regular reports were verified by the market. For example, for corn, the suggestion of taking profit on long positions and short - selling was verified; for hogs, the suggestion of paying attention to selling hedging opportunities was verified; for eggs, the suggestion of paying attention to high - short opportunities was verified [7][8]. - Corn 2509 contract had a monthly decline of 3.78%, closing at 2288 yuan/ton; hog 2509 contract had a monthly increase of 1.48%, closing at 14075 yuan/ton; egg 2506 contract had a monthly decline of 4.53%, closing at 3522 yuan/500 kilograms [11]. 2. Corn Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while the supply pressure of US corn still exists. In China, in the long - term, there is a corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. In the medium - term, the focus is on new - season yield, production, and planting cost. In the short - term, continuous import corn auctions and the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong put pressure on the upward space of the spot price [13]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the hog production capacity has increased, and the supply in the second half of the year is still rising. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - poultry is high, and feed consumption is rigid. Deep - processing consumption is stable and slightly increasing, providing rigid support for corn prices [13]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong makes the spot price weak. In the medium - term, the new - season corn trading drivers are strengthening, and the decline in new - season planting cost puts pressure on the far - month contract expectations. In the long - term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be focused on [14]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the weakness continues to test the lower support. In the medium - term, the new - season contract may first decline and then rise. The 09 contract may continue to fluctuate, with the medium - term support at 2250; the 11 contract is the weakest and short - selling opportunities can be considered, with the medium - term support at 2180 - 2200; the 01 contract can consider low - buying opportunities, with the medium - term support at 2150 - 2200 [15]. 3. Hog Market Analysis Macro and Industry Logic - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices and industrial policy guidance [53]. - **Industry Logic**: Under the background of normalized epidemics after African Swine Fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant short - term fluctuations in hog prices. The large - scale concentration process of the breeding end is not over, and the production capacity of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year [53]. "Anti - involution" Policy - Driven Futures Logic - The second quarter of 2026 may be the watershed of hog supply. The sow reduction policy only affects the supply after May 2026. The 2605 contract is the turning point. Before 2605, the supply is abundant, and after 2605, the supply may decrease if the sow number decreases [54]. - Low raw material costs may limit the premium of far - month contracts. In 2026, the full cost of leading breeding enterprises may be 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and the hog price may fluctuate between 13 - 15 yuan/kg [56]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the reduction in hog slaughter at the end and beginning of the month may support the price to stop falling and stabilize. In the medium - term, the supply increase in the second half of the year makes continuous price rise difficult. In the long - term, if the policy is implemented, the supply pressure after the second quarter of next year may weaken, driving up the valuation of next - year's second - half contracts [57]. 4. Egg Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and new production capacity is still being put into operation. Seasonal peak consumption may support the price to rise periodically. The key is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [82]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the egg price has confirmed the bottom but faces correction pressure due to rising inventory. In the medium - term, concentrated elimination and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a price rebound, but the rebound height depends on the chicken culling rhythm. In the long - term, if the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [83]. Trading Strategy - The short - selling strategies in the first half of the year have been verified. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions. The 2509 contract should pay attention to the support at 3400 - 3450, and the 2510 contract at 3250 - 3280 [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market has limited downside space. After sufficient adjustment, the stock index will continue to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index has strong support below 3550 points, and the short - term decline does not hinder the medium - term optimism [11][13]. - The government's fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support the economy. The release of policy effects and the improvement of corporate profitability will drive the upward movement of the stock market [11][13]. - There are investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially in the AI field, covering computing power, data, and downstream applications [34][35]. - The inflow of various funds, including domestic and foreign funds, into the stock market will provide impetus for the rise of the stock market [11][24][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 3500 points, and the wealth effect spread. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods has been fully allocated, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be allocated in October [8][11][13]. - As of July 29, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 1.0008 trillion yuan, hitting a new high since July 8, 2015, and the total margin trading balance of the two markets was 1.962 trillion yuan [13]. - The decline in the second half of the week was due to some funds believing that the Politburo meeting's policies were lower than expected, but in fact, the economic situation in the first half of the year was better than expected, and policies after April were continuously strengthening [13]. - The decline of commodities at the end of July was a second - wave correction, and after the correction, the overall upward trend of commodities will improve the profitability of listed companies [13]. Economic Policy - On July 31, the Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, enhancing flexibility and predictability, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation. Fiscal policy should be more proactive, and monetary policy should maintain sufficient liquidity and promote the decline of comprehensive social financing costs [15]. - In the second half of the year, anti - involution is the focus, emphasizing the importance of the stock market, promoting the development of new quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimizing the market competition order [17]. Capital Flow - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 reached 4.6%, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial to the upward movement of the stock market [21]. - In April and May, the new deposits of non - bank financial institutions exceeded 1 trillion yuan each month, indicating the transfer of funds to the stock market [24]. - The margin trading balance continued to hit new highs in July, and the financing funds accelerated to enter the market. The margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, hitting a 10 - year high [27]. - Funds in the bond market continued to flow into the stock market, and bond funds suffered large - scale redemptions [30]. Foreign Investment Views - Sovereign wealth funds and global family offices have a continuous increase in investment interest in China. 59% of sovereign wealth funds surveyed by Invesco listed China as a high - or medium - priority target, up from 44% last year. 19% of global family offices plan to increase their allocation of assets in this region, 3 percentage points higher than in 2024 [33]. - BlackRock is optimistic about the investment in China's technology sector, especially in the AI field, which covers three major directions: computing power, data, and downstream applications [34][35]. Economic Data - In June, China's export value reached 325.1 billion US dollars, a new high in half a year, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.8% [37]. - In June, the retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3.75 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% [40]. - In June, the fixed - asset investment in manufacturing reached 3.92 trillion yuan, a record high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.1% [43]. - In June, infrastructure investment reached 3.45 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% [46]. - In June, the new housing start - up area and the commercial housing sales area began to pick up, and the new start - up area reached a new high in a year [49]. - In June, the output of industrial robots reached 74,700 units, a new high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 40.8% [52]. - In June, the output of integrated circuits reached 45 billion pieces, a new high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 24.4%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [55]. - In June, the export volume of Chinese electric vehicles reached 281,000 units, remaining at a high level [57]. US Economic Data - In June, the US manufacturing PMI and service industry business activity index showed certain trends. The retail and food sales in June were 720.1 billion US dollars, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, indicating strong US consumption [60][62]. - In May, the US capital goods import value was 90.9 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 16.3%, indicating the acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [65]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.9%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [68]. - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 1.4%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [73]. Strategy Suggestions - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Technology ETF benefits from the re - allocation of global financial assets [80]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index bottomed out on June 4, rose sharply in July, and entered the second - wave correction after peaking on July 25. It is expected to enter the main upward wave before the Fed cuts interest rates in September [82]. - The decline space of the Shanghai Composite Index is limited, and there is strong support below 3550 points. After technical adjustment, A - shares will continue to rise. Be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [85]. - Due to the impact of quantitative funds' hedging, the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index 2512 contracts still have a relatively deep discount. In the case of limited downside risk, the discount income can be earned [88]. - The decline space is limited. Be bullish on the far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options of stock index options [91].

Report Title - Global Economic and Major Asset Monthly Report: Second Wave Correction of Commodities [1] Report Date - August 1, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The global economy maintains an upward trend [47][53] Industry Situation Global Economy - The global manufacturing PMI index resumed expansion in June due to the easing of Sino-US tariffs [6] United States - In June, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices continued to increase [12] - In June, US retail and food sales reached $720.1 billion, a month-on-month surge of 0.6%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] - In May, the US goods import value was $264.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.26%, showing that imports are returning to normal [18] - In May, US capital goods imports were $90.9 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.3%, indicating the acceleration of manufacturing reshoring and "re-industrialization" [21] - In May, the US service export value was $98.7 billion, basically flat with the previous month, showing a strong service industry [24] - In June, the US core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.9% (previous value 2.8%), and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [27] - In June, the US personal consumption expenditure price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a four-month high [30] - In May, the US non-farm enterprise hourly wage was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [35] - In May, the US wholesaler inventory year-on-year growth rate was 1.4%, and the manufacturer inventory year-on-year growth rate was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [38] Eurozone - The Eurozone has cut interest rates for the 8th consecutive time, and Germany's military expansion of 30% will boost the Eurozone's manufacturing industry [41] India - India's manufacturing PMI continued to expand in June, and its manufacturing and service industries have maintained expansion for more than three years [44] Policy and Events - Sino-US and Sweden negotiations extended the tariff truce for 3 months, stabilizing global economic expectations [48] - China strengthened the domestic cycle and started issuing child-raising subsidies [50] - China comprehensively rectified involution-style competition, pushing up commodity prices [51] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the 8th consecutive time, and Germany's military expansion of 30% and a 1.2% month-on-month increase in industrial output in May promoted the recovery of European manufacturing [51] - The US government released the "AI Action Plan", and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large data centers [52] Major Asset Strategy Stocks - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew [56] - The Shanghai Composite Index has limited downside space, with strong support below 3550 points. After sufficient technical consolidation, A-shares are expected to rise with the inflow of off-market funds, and the four major stock index futures contracts are still bullish [67] Bonds - The US Treasury buys long-term bonds and sells short-term bonds to lower long-term bond yields [58] - Japanese government bond yields are rising due to political turmoil [61] - Inflation trends are impacting long-term government bonds, and there has been a large-scale redemption of bond funds [73] Commodities - The Wenhua Commodity Index bottomed on June 4, soared in July, peaked on July 25, and entered a second-wave correction, which is likely to last until late August and enter the main upward wave before the Fed cuts interest rates in September [70] Gold - Gold is still in a technical adjustment, mainly fluctuating in a sideways range [76] Currency - The RMB is expected to have double surpluses in trade and capital accounts, and is still favored [79]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美联储主席鲍威尔在 FOMC 记者会上表示，降息需看通胀、就业等数据，当前通 | | | | | 胀高、就业好，政策紧缩，如果通胀和就业的状况逐渐好转，政策可能会转向中性， | | | | | 但条件未定，下次会议前数据很关键。 | | | | | 2、美国财政部宣布扩大长债回购规模，同时维持中长期债券发债规模不变，继续 | | | | | 依赖短债弥补财政赤字。在美联储不愿进一步降息的背景下、财政部通过"影子 QE" | | | | | 的手段压低长期收益率。 | | | | | 3、《大漂亮法案》允许企业立即冲销资本投资而非分年摊销，预计将为亚马逊、 | | | | | 谷歌、Meta 等科技巨头在 2025 年合计增加 495 亿美元自由现金流。这些资金将主 | | | | | 要投向 AI 基础设施建设。 | | ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 31 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘探底后上涨，午后延续上涨之后横向波 动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.40%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 | | | | | 0.15%，5 年期 TF2509 上涨 0.08%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 3090 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 1505 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，因此当日净投放 1585 亿元。 | | | | | 2、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to evolve into a trend - upward market as anti - involution boosts listed companies' performance, and the inflow of funds is likely to accelerate in the future. Commodity prices are optimistic in the medium - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, major indices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher, with the science - innovation style leading the market. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.80 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6773 points, up 43 points or 0.65%; the CSI 500 index closed at 6356 points, up 32 points or 0.52%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2808 points, up 5 points or 0.21%; the SSE 300 index closed at 4152 points, up 16 points or 0.39%. In the industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were the Innovent Biologics ETF Tianhong, Communication Equipment ETF, ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huaxia, Biopharmaceutical ETF, and Communication ETF, while the top losers were the Bank ETF, Aquaculture ETF, and Film and Television ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were the medical service, communication equipment, CXO concept, sports, and general steel indices, and the top losers were the aquaculture, small and medium - sized banks, insurance, grain concept, and white goods indices. The CSI 1000, SSE 300, and CSI 500 index futures saw net outflows of 19, 9, and 7 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced. From January 1, 2025, families with one - child, two - child, or three - child can receive an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan until the child reaches 3 years old [1] - Recently, multiple departments held economic situation seminars, mid - year work meetings, or relevant press conferences, revealing future work priorities. The policy focus in the second half of the year is on expanding domestic demand, "anti - involution", and stabilizing the property and stock markets [1][2] - The National Industry and Information Technology Department held a symposium for responsible comrades, deploying key tasks for the next stage, including implementing a new round of ten key industries' stable - growth actions, formulating action plans to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption, and promoting the in - depth integration of informatization and industrialization [1][2] - The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" action will be further promoted, with efforts to strengthen the research on the underlying technology and application in key scenarios. The application of the industrial Internet will be deepened in a hierarchical and classified manner to cultivate a number of industrial intelligent agents [1] - At the closing ceremony of the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Conference, a number of major projects were signed, covering fields such as intelligent driving, embodied intelligence, and robots. A total of 31 projects were signed, with an investment of over 15 billion yuan [1] - The chief economist of the China Institute for the Development Strategy of New - Generation Artificial Intelligence believes that artificial intelligence is reshaping the underlying logic of economic growth. China's advantages in AI scenario application and technological innovation are gradually transforming into industrial competitiveness [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, the Chinese RoboTaxi market will reach 14 billion US dollars, with a fleet size of about 535,000 vehicles [2] - After the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Morgan Stanley and the Hungarian government successfully issued panda bonds in the Chinese inter - bank market. As of July 28, 2025, the issuance scale of panda bonds in the inter - bank market this year was 111.2 billion yuan [2] - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to finalize a new round of significant production increases this weekend, further restoring the group's suspended production capacity. Most traders and analysts predict that Saudi Arabia and its partners will approve an additional production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September at the video conference on August 3 [2] - EU officials clarified that since the 600 - billion - dollar investment in the US will come entirely from private - sector investment, the European Commission has no jurisdiction and cannot guarantee the achievement of the investment target [2] Market Logic - On Tuesday, major indices first declined and then rose, showing strong performance and closing slightly higher. The policy focus in the second half of the year is clear. The regulatory authorities have included index funds in personal pension products, and many index funds have recently added Y - shares. The continuous expansion of the personal pension product portfolio provides more choices for investors and injects long - term stable funds into the capital market [2] Future Outlook - On Tuesday, major indices first declined and then rose, showing strong performance and closing slightly higher. The symposium of the National Industry and Information Technology Department deployed key tasks for the next stage. The market has seen a widespread inflow of institutional funds, and with the accumulation of profit - making effects, the inflow of retail investors is accelerating. The market is gradually reaching a consensus that China has unique and attractive investment opportunities, especially those related to the developing technology ecosystem. The re - allocation of global financial assets away from the US is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The anti - involution will boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The wealth effect of the stock market is emerging, and the inflow of funds is expected to accelerate. Commodity prices generally rebounded on Tuesday, and the sharp decline on Monday was a correction in the bull market, with an optimistic medium - term outlook [2] Trading Strategy - For futures trading, anti - involution boosts the performance of listed companies, and the market is evolving into a capital - driven upward trend. The wealth effect of the stock market is emerging, and growth - style stock index futures have stronger offensive capabilities [2] - For option trading, as the market evolves into a trending upward market, investors should buy out - of - the - money long - term index call options [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The combination of anti - involution policies and the new mining law has driven the bottom - up rebound of lithium carbonate prices, but the price spread still shows a back structure. Short - term price surges are mainly influenced by market sentiment and capital. After the exchange restricted the opening of lithium carbonate futures positions, the bulls retreated significantly. The prices of anti - involution commodities will face corrections, and price volatility will remain high. Considering the supply surplus, the price center of lithium carbonate is expected to be between 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. If the production of Yichun lithium mines is restricted, the price center may rise to 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [1][21]. Summary by Section 1. Anti - involution + New Mining Law Drives Price Rebound - Timeline of the market: On July 1st, the Central Financial and Economic Commission signaled national anti - involution policies, boosting lithium carbonate prices. On July 14th, a rumor about the verification of mining rights in Yichun led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices due to capital concentration. In mid - July, there was a certain short - squeeze sentiment in the market. On July 15th, the new export restrictions on battery and lithium extraction technologies increased the overseas production threshold. On July 17th, Zangge Lithium Industry's suspension of production caused a sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures. On July 21st, Jiangte's production halt and concerns about mining licenses led to supply contraction expectations. On July 23rd and 25th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules and restricted daily opening positions to curb speculation [6][7][8]. 2. Impact of Anti - involution - Since mid - 2024, especially in 2025, anti - involution has become a major supply - side policy. The anti - involution policy helps to eliminate inefficient production capacity, slow down the release of new capacity, and optimize the supply - side structure, which is conducive to stabilizing market prices in the long run. The draft amendment to the Price Law provides a legal basis for anti - involution price work. Based on production costs, a price range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton for lithium carbonate can meet the requirements of anti - involution [9][10]. 3. Impact of the New Mining Law - **New Law Highlights**: The new mining law includes 10 major highlights, such as ensuring national mineral resource security, promoting competitive transfer of mining rights, separating property rights registration from exploration and mining permits, implementing a "direct - access" system for exploration and mining, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of mining right holders, etc. Mines included in the strategic catalog will receive policy support [13][14][15]. - **Impact on the Supply Side**: Zangge Lithium Industry's suspension of production has little impact on the annual output. The market has expectations of supply contraction due to issues such as mining license renewals, which support the rise of lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the high inventory (about 1.5 times the monthly output) restricts price increases [17][18]. 4. Future Trend Outlook - In the short term, price volatility will remain high, and it is not recommended to chase up or sell short unilaterally. Instead, investors can use long straddle option combinations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the renewal of Ningde Jianxiawo's mining license on August 9th, the submission of resource reserve reports by 8 mines in Yichun on September 30th, and the government's mining exploration progress. Considering supply surplus, the price center is expected to be 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. In September, factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's policy implementation, demand front - loading in the fourth quarter, and increased production costs due to the new mining law will affect prices. If Yichun's lithium mine production is restricted, the price center may rise to 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [21].