联系方式：15000295386 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 2 元至 6288 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6350 元/吨 （+50），华南瓶片价格 6380 元/吨（+80）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 1617 手至 6.14 万手，空头持仓增加 643 手至 6.52 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 【重要资讯】 30.46 万吨，环比-2.07 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.7%，环比-4.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5543 元， 环比-45 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-40 元/吨，环比+58 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 5 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 品种 | | --- | | 多（空） 推荐理由 | | 板块 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷收跌。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、生态环境部："十四五"期间累计完成 9.4 亿吨粗钢产能、1.7 亿千瓦煤电机组 | | | | | 超低排放改造。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 2、国家能源局：截至 2025 年底全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比增 16.1%。 3、据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2026 年 2 月空冰洗排产合计总 | | | | | 量共计 2379 万台，较去年同期生产实绩下降 22.1%。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 周三钢材价格持平。随着 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 2026 年 1 月 29 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1134.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.61%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1684.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.96%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1 月 28 日，河北、天津地区部分钢厂对焦炭采购价格进行首轮上调，湿熄焦上调 50 | | | | | 元/吨，干熄焦上调 55 元/吨，2026 年 1 月 30 日零点执行。 | | | | | 2、国家能源局数据显示，截至 2025 年底，全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比 | | | 焦煤、 | | 增长 16.1%。 | | 黑色 | 焦炭 | 区间震荡 | 3、本周，Mysteel 统计 314 家独立洗煤厂样本产能利用率为 36.8%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biodiesel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil have stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed oil has stabilized at the bottom. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position thinking of buying on dips, and continue to hold long positions in rapeseed oil [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, view the short - term rebound of double meals, and wait for short - selling opportunities after the return of fundamentals following the subsiding of macro - narrative sentiment [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 28th, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil and the shift of sector funds, the vegetable oil sector continued its strong upward trend. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8326 yuan/ton, up 0.82% day - on - day, with an increase of 8470 lots in open interest. Similar trends were seen in other contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [1][2] 3.1.2 Important Information - International oil prices rose 1.49% on January 28th due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a weaker US dollar. The active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX rose $0.93, or 1.49%, to settle at $63.21 per barrel [1] - Trump's claim that the US "fleet" was heading to Iran pushed up oil prices, providing additional support for soybean oil prices used in biofuel production [1] - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Malaysia lowered its February reference price for crude palm oil, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The February reference price was 3,846.84 ringgit ($950) per ton, compared with 3,946.17 ringgit in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [1] - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 15.28% and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% [1] - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons in the same period in December [1] - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, down 58,500 tons week - on - week, a 2.78% decrease and a 2.60% increase year - on - year. The inventory of different oils showed different trends [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the tense situation in the Middle East and winter storms tightened the expected supply of US crude oil, and international crude oil continued to rise, driving up the price of US soybean oil. The upward trend of Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue due to macro - narrative promotion and potential positive factors such as production decline and export growth [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. The customs tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the domestic auction of old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the oil mills had sufficient soybeans for crushing, with the Spring Festival stocking still ongoing. For palm oil, after the release of negative data from Southeast Asia, the market focused more on the US biodiesel policy expectations, and the improvement in export data boosted the price. For rapeseed oil, the new economic and trade agreement between China and Canada, the US tariff threat to Canada, and the Spring Festival stocking factors led to a sharp rise in price [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold existing long positions in soybean oil and palm oil, and also hold long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 28th, with the shift of sector hotspots and the support of macro - narrative, the double - meal continued to rebound. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2782 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 5766 lots in open interest [2][3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce agreement in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment in advance [3] - The estimated soybean exports from Brazil in January 2026 are 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate [3] - As of January 16th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, and the harvest progress in Mato Grosso state was 6.69% [3] - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the second - season soybean sowing progress reached 71.9% [3] - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean exports will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from the record in 2025, and the soybean crushing volume will reach 60 million tons, a 2.5% increase from last year [3] - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 will be 2.4 million tons, a 114% increase from the same period last year, and the annual exports in 2026 will reach a record 112 million tons [3] - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, down 4.35% week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The inventory and contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed meal remained unchanged [3] - The national grain trading center's auction of imported soybeans on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increasing drought risk in Argentina and the weaker US dollar led to the continued rise of US soybeans [4] - Domestically, in the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills were mostly stable. The terminal pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, and the oil mill inventory continued to decline. However, the high operating rate of oil mills and the alleviation of local vehicle - queuing problems made it difficult for the market trading volume to increase. Due to the renewed tension in Sino - Canadian trade relations affected by US remarks, the short - selling funds in rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed meal futures price continued to rise. In the spot market, the downstream inventory - building rate slowed down due to policy fluctuations [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Operate the 05 and 09 contracts of double meals with a rebound mindset, and provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4] - Arbitrage trading: None at present [4]

| | | 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期来看，南方猪价大幅下跌、南北价差开始倒挂，本周后期雨雪天气扰动增强， | | | | 关注腊月中旬下游备货情绪。 | | | | 中期来看，全国新生仔猪数量对应今年3月之前生猪供给增量预期仍存，或限制猪价 | | | | 向上空间；10、11月新生仔猪连续2个月环比下降，对应今年4月起供给压力有所缓 | | | | 解；重点关注疫病影响。 | | | | 长期来看，母猪存栏对应今年8月前供给压力仍存；然而2025年年末能繁母猪存栏降 | | | | 幅不及预期，远月合约预期下移。 | | | | 【交易策略】 | | | | 2603合约支撑继续关注11000-11200，压力关注11500；2605合约支撑继续关注1150 | | | | 0-11600，压力关注11900；2607合约支撑继续关注12200-12300，压力关注12500；2 | | | | 609合约支撑关注13100-13200，压力关注13400-13500。 | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | 昨日鸡蛋期货涨跌互现，主力 2603 合约 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济已越过顶部区域，开始向下运行。 重要事项: 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、达利欧发文警告美国正处于"债务大周期"中"现有秩序崩溃"（第六阶段） | | | | 的边缘。在贫富差距悬殊、债务膨胀及真相丧失的背景下，美国已成"火药桶"。 | | | | 达利欧直言"当有疑问时，离开"，警示投资者注意资本管制风险。 | | | | 2、特朗普暗示他可以操纵美元汇率，称"可以让它像溜溜球一样上下波动"，但 | | | | 认为这么做并非好事，还批评日本一直让货币贬值。在市场猜测美日可能联合干预 | | | | 汇市后，日元最近三个交易日累涨 4%。 | | | | 3、高盛表示，纽约联储代表美国财政部进行的美元兑日元汇率询价，向市场传递 | | | | 了强烈信号，显示美国政府对汇率水平的关注程度超过此前。高盛 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term, with coking coal continuing its downward structure but having obvious bottom support [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the previous day's daytime session, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1,116.5 yuan/ton, a 3.71% decline compared to the daytime opening. The main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1,668.0, a 2.97% decline compared to the daytime opening. It closed with a doji star in the previous night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, the steel industry achieved a total profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 299.2%. The coal mining and washing industry achieved a total profit of 352 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.8% [1] - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods, with the automobile tariff gradually dropping from 110% to 10%. The EU will cancel or reduce tariffs on 99.5% of goods imported from India within 7 years [1] - On January 27, 2026, the auction of Zhongmei Huali Hesheng coking coal (A12 S0.5 V24 G90) in Jinzhong, Shanxi had a starting price of 1,350 yuan/ton and a quantity of 100 tons, and all were sold at 1,378 yuan/ton. In the previous period (January 17, 2026), the starting price was 1,350 yuan/ton, the quantity was 200 tons, and all were sold at 1,369 - 1,391 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly the previous day. On the spot side, the coking coal auction prices were poor, showing a stable - to - decreasing trend. Fundamentally, the winter - storage logic has weakened marginally, the weak fundamentals are apparent, and the weakening speculative sentiment led to an increase in positions and a price decline on the futures market. In the short - term, coking coal will continue its downward structure, but the bottom support is obvious. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term [1] Trading Strategy - The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between the bottom support of 1,100 and the upper limit of 1,170 [1]

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 【行情复盘】 周二夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 4 元至 2310 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 格下跌 33 元至 2267 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 14122 手至 47.25 万手，空头 持仓增加 4130 手至 59.42 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 89.9%，环比-1.3%。海外甲醇开工率 60.8%，环比+1.3%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 145.75 万吨，较上一期数据增加 2.22 万吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 1.36 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 3.58 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 43.83 万吨，较上期降 1.25 万吨，环比降 2.78%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 11.31 万吨，环比减少 5.04 万吨。样本企业订单 待发 23.83 万吨，较上期微增 0.05 万吨，环比增 0.21%。烯烃开⼯率 85.1 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 | 板块 能源与化 工 | | | 万吨，较上期库存 29.7 万吨 13.5 万吨累库 17 万吨，同比上 1.3 吨，提货约 0.5 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元至 5975 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 5941 元/吨（环比-11）。持仓方面， 手至 2.6 万手。 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 原油期货 03 合约 62.39 涨 1.76 美元/桶， 1.98 美元/桶，环比+3.02%。中国 INE 6.9 至 456 元/桶。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 中东地缘局势不确定较大，原油表现坚挺。本周纯苯江苏港口小幅累库，中石化销 | | | | | 售价格连续提价，需求端下游开工提升 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 28 日星期三 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5168 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5165 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5185 元/吨，日跌幅 0.08%，夜盘收 5180 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.昨日今日广西白糖现货成交价为 5239 元/吨，下跌 8 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区 | | | | | 间 5250~5320 元/吨，多数下调 10 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5120~5170 元/吨，下 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5560~5900 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨。 | | | | | 2 ...