Report Summary 1. Hot News - On the evening of November 24th, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing maintaining the positive momentum of China-US relations and expanding cooperation [2] - Fed Governor Waller stated that the employment market is weak, inflation is not a major issue, and advocated for a rate cut in December [2] - The US and Ukraine held talks on the US peace plan in Geneva on November 23rd, with both sides considering the talks fruitful [2] - The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 81% (up from 69.4% yesterday) [2] - Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that due to Japan's wrong remarks on the Taiwan issue, the conditions for a China-Japan-South Korea leaders' meeting are currently not met [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: glass, corn, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 3.22%, precious metals 28.81%, oilseeds and oils 9.94%, non-ferrous metals 22.92%, soft commodities 2.88%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 12.73%, energy 2.98%, chemicals 11.06%, grains 1.35%, and agricultural and sideline products 4.12% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year-to-Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.05 | -2.98 | 14.47 | | | SSE 50 | -0.18 | -2.03 | 9.90 | | | CSI 300 | -0.12 | -4.15 | 13.04 | | | CSI 500 | 0.76 | -6.30 | 19.97 | | | S&P 500 | 1.55 | -1.97 | 14.00 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.97 | -0.73 | 28.20 | | | German DAX | 0.71 | -2.93 | 16.81 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.00 | -7.22 | 21.89 | | | FTSE 100 | -0.05 | -1.88 | 16.66 | | Fixed Income | 10-Year Treasury Futures | 0.06 | -0.16 | -0.39 | | | 5-Year Treasury Futures | 0.03 | -0.16 | -0.61 | | | 2-Year Treasury Futures | 0.01 | -0.12 | -0.54 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.14 | -2.17 | -0.25 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.41 | -3.27 | -18.13 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.73 | 3.30 | 57.56 | | | LME Copper | 0.04 | -1.01 | 22.78 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.46 | -2.25 | 27.70 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.05 | 0.47 | -7.63 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 34.35 | 35.04 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, significant news, and financial market developments across various sectors, including commodities, futures, stocks, and bonds. It also covers macroeconomic news, industry - specific updates, and geopolitical events that may impact the financial markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.33% at $4133.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.49% at $51.155 per ounce [4]. - U.S. oil and Brent crude futures increased, with U.S. oil up 1.43% at $58.89 per barrel and Brent up 1.28% at $62.73 per barrel [5]. - London base metals all climbed, such as LME nickel up 1.90% at $14730 per ton and LME tin up 1.44% at $37425 per ton [5]. - Most domestic futures contracts rose, with glass, ethylene glycol, etc. up over 1%, while rubber and low - sulfur fuel oil declined slightly [6]. Important News Macro News - On November 24, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with U.S. President Trump, emphasizing the need to expand cooperation between China and the U.S. [9]. - As of November 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 20.7% to 1639.37 points [10]. - By the end of October, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, a 17.3% year - on - year increase [11]. - On November 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations [12]. - Fed Governor Waller advocated a December rate cut due to a weak labor market [14]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 24, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory decreased by 1.75% to 1.6157 million tons [17]. - Jiangsu styrene port inventory rose 10.72% to 164,200 tons [17]. - East China's ethylene glycol inventory increased by 35,500 tons to 668,500 tons [18]. - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were cut by 70 yuan and 65 yuan per ton respectively on November 24 [20]. Metal Futures - In 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow 1.7% year - on - year, and overseas operating capacity has increased by about 500,000 tons [22]. - Indonesia's Freeport plans to produce less cathode copper and gold in 2026 due to a mudslide [22]. Black - Series Futures - Due to snow in Ganqimao Port, the number of customs - cleared vehicles on November 24 is expected to be less than 1000 [24]. - From November 17 - 23, global iron ore shipments decreased by 2.38 million tons [24]. - In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.5% [27]. Agricultural Product Futures - From November 24, the margin standards for nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizer auctions were adjusted [29]. - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills exceeded 2.3 million tons [29]. - As of November 21, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [29]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares fluctuated up, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05% at 3836.77 points, and the market turnover was 1.74 trillion yuan [36]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.97% to 25716.5 points [36]. - As of November 24, 800 listed companies received significant shareholder increases, totaling 115.821 billion yuan, a 44.69% year - on - year increase [36]. - High - end strategists predict that China's stock market will continue its bull market, with a potential 30% increase by 2027 [37]. Industry - As of November 24, 12 Sino - Japanese flight routes canceled all flights [41]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases [41]. - By the end of October, China's solar power and wind power installed capacities increased significantly [43]. Overseas - The U.S. and Ukraine reached a 19 - point peace agreement draft, but key issues remain to be decided [44]. - The U.S. canceled the release of Q3 GDP pre - estimates, and PCE data will be released on December 5 [44]. - Fed officials advocated a December rate cut due to a weak labor market [44]. International Stocks - U.S. stocks rose, with the Dow up 0.44%, the S&P 500 up 1.55%, and the Nasdaq up 2.69% [47]. - European stocks had mixed results, with the German DAX up 0.71% and the French CAC40 down 0.29% [47]. Commodities - Precious metals, crude oil, and base metals all rose, driven by factors such as Fed signals and geopolitical events [50]. - Bank of America predicts that gold prices may reach $5000 per ounce in 2026 [51]. Bonds - The domestic bond market had narrow fluctuations, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [52]. - The central bank issued 45 billion yuan of RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [53]. - U.S. bond yields fell across the board [55]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the dollar index rose slightly [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The controversy over the AI bubble has intensified, and the NVIDIA earnings report has affected the global market. Risk - asset prices have fluctuated sharply and declined. The Fed's hawkish remarks have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation, suppressing investors' risk appetite [5][10]. - The domestic futures market style has switched with price corrections. The anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the protagonist, driven by supply and demand, and showing international and domestic linkage [7][119]. - The stock market and commodities have both declined. The difference between commodity and stock returns has converged, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Summary by Directory Market Overview - AI bubble controversy has increased, and the NVIDIA earnings report has made the market nervous. Risk - asset prices have fallen, global stocks and commodities have declined, A - shares have dropped significantly, the BDI index has risen against the trend, the US dollar index has strengthened, and most non - US currencies have depreciated. Commodities are mostly down, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals falling. The domestic bond market has mixed results, and stock indexes have all tumbled. Most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector [5][10]. Big - Class Assets - Global stocks and commodities have declined. Bitcoin and US stocks have fallen rapidly from highs, the VIX volatility index has risen significantly, the BDI index has risen, the US dollar index has strengthened, most non - US currencies have depreciated, and commodities are mostly down [5][10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has mixed results with near - term strength and long - term weakness, stock indexes have all tumbled, and most domestic commodity sectors have declined except for the grain sector. The Wind commodity index has a weekly change of - 4.55%, with 1 out of 10 commodity sector indexes rising and 9 falling [15]. Fund Flows - The commodity futures market has seen a significant overall outflow of funds. The soft commodity, grain, and energy sectors have seen obvious inflows, while the non - ferrous, precious metal, and non - metallic building materials sectors have seen significant outflows [19]. Variety Performance - In the past week, domestic major commodity futures have had mixed results. The top - rising commodity futures are lithium carbonate, iron ore, and styrene, while the top - falling ones are silver futures, low - sulfur fuel oil, and soda ash [23]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index has changed little, while the volatility of the domestic Wind and Nanhua commodity indexes has risen. Most commodity futures sectors have seen an increase in volatility, with the oilseeds and chemical sectors seeing a decline in volatility, and the precious metal, agricultural product, and non - ferrous sectors seeing the most obvious increase in volatility [27]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities have generally declined, the BDI has risen, the CRB has fallen, soybeans have risen while corn has fallen, copper, oil, gold, and silver have all declined, and the gold - silver ratio has rebounded significantly [31]. Macro Logic - Stock indexes have fallen sharply, valuations have declined, and the risk premium ERP has risen. Commodity price indexes have fallen significantly, and inflation expectations have declined under pressure. US Treasury yields have declined, the term structure has flattened in a bullish way, the term spread has changed little, and real interest rates and gold prices have both fallen [35][45][62]. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, the stock market fell sharply, and commodities declined together. The negative difference between commodity and stock returns has converged. The Nanhua and CRB commodity indexes have both declined significantly, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns has hovered around the 0 axis [52]. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectation - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed has risen. The probability of a 25 - bp cut to 3.5 - 3.75% is 67.3%, significantly higher than last week's 39.8%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% has significantly decreased [6][81]. NVIDIA Earnings Report - The market has high expectations for NVIDIA's earnings report, with Wall Street generally optimistic, but some institutions are concerned about the AI bubble. The earnings report has exceeded expectations, temporarily alleviating concerns about the AI bubble and boosting the global capital market. However, the stock price has fallen during trading, and the US stock market has reversed sharply [87][91][97]. Fed's Hawkish Stance - The Fed's meeting minutes and the remarks of Fed officials have weakened the December interest - rate cut expectation. The US dollar has strengthened, the Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, and the US Treasury yield has fluctuated widely [103]. Market Style Switching - Overseas, the market is worried about the release of major US data, the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the controversy over the AI bubble. Domestically, affected by overseas market volatility, investors have shifted from technology stocks to cyclical stocks, and the anti - involution market has returned, with lithium carbonate being the focus [119]. This Week's Focus - A series of important economic data and events in the US, Germany, the UK, New Zealand, the eurozone, South Korea, and Japan will be released this week, including business activity indexes, GDP data, inflation data, and central bank interest - rate decisions [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the price rebound, the downstream response was poor, and the orders received since the weekend were weak. Domestic demand still couldn't support the high - price operation. The India tender price also failed to boost the market. However, exports continued, and there was still demand support from subsequent off - season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. It is expected that the futures market will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices moved up due to the continuous rebound of futures and improved downstream demand. But since the weekend, the downstream market has generally resisted high prices, resulting in poor factory orders and the prices are running weakly and stably [3] Futures Dynamics - From November 18 - 22, the urea futures market showed different trends each day. As of November 24, the main January contract of urea was at 1638 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the settlement price on November 17. The weekly trading volume was 1738.90 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 121.16 million tons; the open interest was 724.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.79 million tons. The export speculation sentiment weakened, and the futures market returned to the fundamentals. The weak domestic demand negatively affected the market. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. As of November 24, the basis of the 01 contract was 12 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 74 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 11 yuan/ton. On November 24, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7570, a week - on - week increase of 387 [5][8] Urea Supply - side - From November 13 - 19, the weekly urea output was 142.04 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.35 million tons and a 3.16% increase. The weekly average daily output was 20.29 million tons. Coal - based and small - particle output increased, while gas - based output decreased slightly. In the next cycle, the output is expected to continue to grow. On November 24, the national daily urea output was 20.75 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.51%. The price of steam coal was weakly stable, and the supply was expected to change little. The domestic LNG price decreased. The price of synthetic ammonia moved up, and the price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea weakened. The methanol price decreased, and the price difference between methanol and urea also decreased [11][12][14] Urea Demand - side - As of November 21, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased slightly. After the end of the environmental protection inspection last week, the production of compound fertilizer enterprises gradually resumed, and some Northeast devices started operation. It is expected that the production of winter - storage compound fertilizer will continue in the next period. From November 15 - 21, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous week and 2.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous period and 6.17 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Although the operating load of melamine increased, the downstream panel market was weak, and the demand support was insufficient [16] Inventory Data - As of November 21, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 143.72 million tons, a decrease of 4.64 million tons from the previous week and a 3.13% decrease. The inventory in Northeast China decreased smoothly. The port sample inventory was 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons from the previous week, and the port inventory is expected to continue to increase with exports [19] International Market - This week's India tender price was lower than expected. The US cancelled the import tariff on major nitrogen fertilizers. As of November 21, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in China changed, and the FOB prices in other regions also had different fluctuations [21][23]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department [5] Market Summary - As of the close on November 24, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Methanol rose over 3%, glass nearly 3%, and ethylene glycol (EG), corn, cotton yarn, and polysilicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate dropped nearly 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and pure benzene fell over 2%, and styrene (EB), coking coal, palm oil, and urea dropped over 1% [5][6]. - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84%. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.06%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.15% [6]. - As of 15:18 on November 24, in terms of capital flow, Shanghai Gold 2602 had an inflow of 1.456 billion yuan, Shanghai Silver 2602 had an inflow of 260 million yuan, and Shanghai Copper 2601 had an inflow of 240 million yuan. In terms of outflows, CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 7.289 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 had an outflow of 4.312 billion yuan, and CSI 300 2512 had an outflow of 2.562 billion yuan [6]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened low and trended higher, showing a strong oscillation. Data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, but with a data vacuum before the next Fed meeting, the uncertainty of rate cut expectations is high, and the market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively large, causing the US dollar index to continue to rebound [8]. - Nvidia's strong earnings boosted optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand. Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in Q2 next year. Refined copper imports decreased month-on-month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have also been accumulating [8]. - The 770th document has not been implemented, causing cautious operations in recycled copper rod enterprises. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month-on-month decline of over 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [8]. - Overall, the Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a stalemate, and the market believes the probability of a rate cut in December is small, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the off-season demand and increasing SHFE inventories have weakened market confidence. Short-term copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to Fed rate cut expectations [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and trended lower, dropping nearly 3% during the day. As of October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 21, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher than the same period last year [11]. - In October, China's energy storage battery production was 54.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, year-on-year increases of 21.1% and 20% [11]. - The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and demand. Although there is news of the resumption of production at the Jiuxiaowo mine, the authenticity is uncertain. Until the actual negative impact is realized, there is support at the bottom of the market [11]. Crude Oil - On November 2, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increases in Q1 next year. The end of the peak demand season, combined with increased production and exports, has led to a supply surplus in the crude oil market [12][13]. - EIA data shows that refined oil inventories increased more than expected, but due to increased net exports, US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected. US crude oil production is near a record high. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [12][13]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand due to the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US manufacturing index, and the unclear prospects of US interest rate cuts. The supply surplus in the crude oil market has become a consensus, and the risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year-on-year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) [14]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed performance. The national asphalt shipments increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. Asphalt refinery inventory ratios remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years [14]. - With the decline in crude oil prices and the end of road construction in the north, demand is expected to weaken further. With the stable production of some refineries, the asphalt operating rate will increase. Asphalt futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, remained flat, and orders decreased slightly compared to last year [16]. - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%. The production ratio of standard-grade PP increased to around 29%. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years [16]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Downstream demand is in the late peak season, and orders are limited. The lack of large-scale purchases and the absence of anti-competition policies have led to limited market support. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 24, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with stable orders, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period over the years. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film peak season is ending, and demand in the north is starting to decline [17]. - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and traders are cautious about the future market. Without anti-competition policies, and with the supply-demand pattern unchanged, plastic prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [17][19]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased slightly to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate continued to decline slightly, remaining at a relatively low level [20]. - India's termination of the BIS policy on PVC and the likely cancellation of anti-dumping duties have alleviated concerns about exports to India, and export orders increased last week. Social inventories increased slightly last week and remain high, indicating significant inventory pressure [20]. - In 2025, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. With positive chlor-alkali comprehensive profits and new production capacity coming online, the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly recently [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and trended higher, with a decline during the day. The spot price in the Shanxi market decreased, and the self-pickup price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal also decreased [21]. - In October, China's coal imports decreased year-on-year. The utilization rate of coking coal mine production capacity increased slightly. As of November 16, the cumulative import volume of coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was large, and the daily customs clearance vehicles may increase next week [21][22]. - Under the winter coal supply and price stabilization policy, the tight supply expectation is partially offset. Mine inventories have increased significantly, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Steel mill operating rates and molten iron production increased this week, but profits are weakening. There is potential bullishness in mine production cuts at the end of the year, so be cautious about potential price rebounds [22]. Urea - The futures price opened low and trended lower, showing a downward oscillation. The spot price of urea increased due to the continuous rebound of futures prices and improved downstream demand, but since the weekend, downstream resistance to high prices has led to weak order receipts and stable prices [23]. - Before the seasonal shutdown of gas-based devices, the daily output of upstream factories is expected to fluctuate above 190,000 tons. The upward trend of coal costs has slowed, and downstream demand needs verification. Last week, demand was strong, and orders were good. Northeast fertilizer preparation has begun, and compound fertilizer factory operating rates have rebounded [23]. - After the price rebound, downstream feedback has been poor, and order receipts have been weak since the weekend. Domestic demand cannot support high prices, and the Indian tender price has not boosted the market. However, exports continue, and there is still demand support from off-season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [23].

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1650 1650 0 河南 1650 1650 0 山东 1640 1650 -10 山西 1510 1510 0 江苏 1630 1640 -10 安徽 1640 1640 0 黑龙江 1730 1730 0 内蒙古 1720 1720 0 河北东光 1640 1640 0 山东华鲁 1640 1630 10 江苏灵谷 1680 1680 0 安徽昊源 1630 1630 0 山东05基差 -95 -105 10 山东01基差 -99 -114 15 河北05基差 -85 -95 10 河北01基差 -89 -104 15 1-5价差 70 72 -2 5-9价差 -4 -9 5 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 7570 7183 387 中东FOB 395.5 377.5 18 美湾FOB 374.5 382.5 -8 埃及FOB 472.5 490 -18 波罗的海FOB 372.5 377.5 -5 巴西CFR 415 421.5 -7 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：0 ...

研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落4.2个百分点至24.8%，较去年同期低了7.0个百分点，处于近年同期最低水平。 据隆众资讯数据，11月份国内沥青预计排产222.8万吨，环比减少45.4万吨，减幅为16.9%，同比减少27.4万吨，减 幅为11.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于34%，受到资金和天气制约。上 周，东北地区沥青产量增加，叠加降价刺激出货，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加15.28%至24.6万吨，处 于中性略偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比持平，处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美 国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对 和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。本周山东胜星等炼厂将稳定 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The supply side shows an increase in PVC开工率, while the downstream开工率 continues to decline slightly. The cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC has limited positive impact, and factors such as high inventory, falling prices of coking coal and coke futures, and the end of maintenance of some production enterprises suppress market sentiment [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Analysis - PVC prices are oscillating downward, and the 01 basis is at -46 yuan/ton, in a neutral to low level [3][5][13]. b) Supply Side - The upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC开工率 has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83% week-on-week, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years [3][18]. - New production capacities include 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons/year each of Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua operating at low loads after commissioning [3]. c) Demand Side - The downstream PVC开工率 continues to decline slightly, still at a relatively low level, although it exceeds the levels of the past two years [3]. - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%. Various indicators such as sales area, new construction area, and completion area all showed significant year-on-year declines. As of the week ending November 23, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 18.56% week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [23]. d) Export - India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti-dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and last week's export orders increased week-on-week [3]. e) Inventory - As of the week ending November 20, PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% week-on-week to 1.0326 million tons, 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The inventory is still relatively high [24].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Fed's hawkish and dovish camps are in a fierce stand - off, but economic data and market expectations suggest a low probability of a December rate cut. The US dollar index has rebounded significantly, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, although there is strong support from the expected tight balance of copper mines, the current off - season demand and the increase in SHFE copper inventories have weakened market confidence and intensified the cautious attitude of waiting and seeing. In the short term, copper prices are expected to be under pressure, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations should be closely monitored in the future [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: US non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The data led to an increase in rate - cut expectations, but there is uncertainty before the next Fed meeting. The market generally believes the probability of no rate cut in December is relatively high, and the US dollar index continued to rebound. Nvidia's strong earnings report boosted the optimistic expectations for copper downstream demand [2]. - **Supply Aspect**: Copper concentrate inventories have been accumulating for a week. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiations for copper smelting are ongoing, and the refining fees remain stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic supply is relatively abundant, and SHFE copper inventories have been accumulating. The 770th document has not been implemented, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious, but it is expected to improve after the policy implementation [2]. - **Demand Aspect**: After the decline in copper prices last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10% and a year - on - year decline of 3.3%. High copper prices in October restricted production. SHFE inventories continued to increase and are higher than last year. As of November 21, SHFE copper inventories were 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [2]. Copper Price Trends - **SHFE Copper**: This week, SHFE copper fluctuated downward. The weekly high was 86,900 yuan/ton, the low was 85,520 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.59%, and the range decline was 1.43% [4]. - **LME Copper**: As of November 21, LME copper fell 1.38% during the week, closing at $10,700/ton. Due to the divergence in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, copper prices are mainly under pressure [14]. Spot Market - As of November 24, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 125 yuan/ton. After the decline in copper prices during the week, downstream purchases increased, and the spot premium strengthened [9]. Copper Concentrate Supply - As of November 21, copper concentrate port inventory was 596,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.45%. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. SMM predicts that the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance in 2025 will be - 330,000 metal tons. In October 2025, China imported 2.451 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to October, the cumulative import was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [18]. Scrap Copper Supply - In October 2025, scrap copper imports were about 196,607 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%, with Japan being the largest source. The 770th document has not been implemented, and the production of recycled copper rods in Jiangxi and Anhui has declined, but it is expected to improve after the policy implementation [22]. Smelter Fees - As of November 21, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) was - 41.82 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.37 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. The tight supply of copper concentrate has led to negative processing fees. During the 2026 long - term contract negotiations, it is expected that smelters will have limited profit margins. The first "zero processing fee" has appeared in the negotiations [26]. Refined Copper Supply - In October, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,400 tons, and it is expected to be 1.0876 million tons in November. Five smelters are expected to be under maintenance in November, affecting 48,000 tons of production, but production may increase due to the resumption of some plants and the increase in copper prices. In October 2025, China imported 438,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to October, the cumulative import was 4.456 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In September 2025, the global refined copper supply shortage was 81,300 tons [30]. Apparent Demand - As of September 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.4665 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98% [34]. Copper Products - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62%; the copper tube production was 121,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.29%. In October, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a month - on - month decline of over 10% and a year - on - year decline of 3.3%; from January to October, the cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. High copper prices restricted production [39]. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of September, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%; wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. From January to September, the average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 2,368 hours, 251 hours lower than the same period last year [43]. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the sales area of new commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume of new commercial housing was 690.17 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [50]. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 51.6% of total vehicle sales. From January to October, new energy vehicle exports were 2.014 million, a year - on - year increase of 90.4% [54]. Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - **LME**: As of November 21, LME copper inventories increased by 19,300 tons to 155,000 tons, which put pressure on international copper prices. - **COMEX**: As of November 21, COMEX copper inventories were 402,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.66% and 353% higher than the same period last year. - **Shanghai and Guangdong Bonded Areas**: On November 20, the cumulative copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 119,200 tons, with limited changes. - **SHFE**: As of November 21, SHFE copper inventories were 49,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.83% [60][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The polyolefin industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic (PE)开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 89.5%, at a neutral level [14] - PP开工率 rose by 0.5 percentage points to around 83.5%, at a slightly below - neutral level [14] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 21, PE下游开工率 increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%, still at a relatively low level in recent years [19] - As of the week of November 21, PP下游开工率 rose by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [19] Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 150 yuan/ton, at a slightly below - neutral level [24] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed down [28] Market Situation and Outlook - The petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly above - neutral level in recent years [3][28] - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation, including ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical PE with an annual capacity of 700,000 tons, and PP with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons [3] - The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and orders for products like plastic weaving have limited follow - up, with the peak season falling short of expectations [3] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling goods at reduced prices [3] - There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the polyolefin industry yet, and relevant macro - policies will affect future market trends [3]