Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash开工率 is 86.89%, up 1.95 percentage points from the previous value; the产量 is 75.76 tons, up 1.7 tons; the重质产量 is 41.98 tons, up 0.98 tons; the轻质产量 is 33.78 tons, up 0.72 tons [1] - **Glass**: The current week's glass开工率 remains at 76.350%, the产线条数 remains at 226, and the产量 remains at 112.8925 tons [1] Inventory - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash厂内库存 is 170.2 tons, down 0.01 tons; the重质库存 is 88.64 tons, down 4.81 tons; the轻质库存 is 81.56 tons, up 4.8 tons; the库存可用天数 is 14.11 days, unchanged [1] - **Glass**: The current week's glass库存 is 6579 (unit not specified), down 82.3; the库存可用天数 is 28 days, down 0.3 days [1] Profit - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash氨碱法毛利 is -41.7 yuan/ton, down 9.3 yuan/ton; the联产法毛利 is -165 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [1] - **Glass**: The current week's glass天然气利润 is -157.7 yuan/ton, down 37.14 yuan/ton; the石油焦利润 is 1.09 yuan/ton, down 47.14 yuan/ton; the煤制气利润 is 63.45 yuan/ton, down 49.78 yuan/ton [1] Basis & Spread - **Soda Ash**: The current week's soda ash基差 remains at -50; the 1 - 5价差 is 89, up 6; the纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 144, up 17; the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 81, up 19 [1] - **Glass**: The current week's glass基差 is 30, up 12; the 1 - 5价差 is 152, up 4 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report No core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides weekly data on iron ore inventory and related supply - demand indicators. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Data - The current total port inventory is 14,542.48, an increase of 118.89 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily average port clearance volume is 320.16, an increase of 7.51 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of imported ore in steel mills is 8,849.86, a decrease of 229.33 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily consumption of imported ore in steel mills is 291.62, a decrease of 4.84 from the previous week [1]. Supply - Demand Data - The current arrival volume is 2,029.1, a decrease of 490.30 from the previous week [1]. - The current output of domestic iron ore concentrate is 40.33, an increase of 0.30 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily average pig iron output is 236.36, a decrease of 3.54 from the previous week [1]. - The current steel mill operating rate is 81.75, a decrease of 2.96 from the previous week [1]. - The current capacity utilization rate is 88.61, a decrease of 1.33 from the previous week [1]. - The current steel mill profitability rate is 45.02, a decrease of 2.6 from the previous week [1]. Port Inventory Variety Structure - The current volume of coarse powder is 11,239.43, an increase of 144.47 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of lump ore is 1,862.3, a decrease of 61.27 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of pellets is 286.92, an increase of 14.75 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of iron concentrate is 1,153.83, an increase of 20.94 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of trade ore is 9,310.21, an increase of 69.59 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of Brazilian ore is 5,743.87, a decrease of 27.56 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of Australian ore is 6,017.4, an increase of 82.4 from the previous week [1].

国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会10月31日发布2025年10月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 数据显示，10月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.9%、48.7%和47.1%，比上月下降1.1个、0.1个 和1.1个百分点，均低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数位于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 生产指数为 49.7%，比上月下降2.2个百分点，表明制造业生产有所放缓。新订单指数为48.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。原材料库存指数为47.3%，比上月下降1.2个百分点，表明制造业主要 原材料库存量继续减少。从业人员指数为48.3%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回落。供应商配送时间指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业原材料供应商 交货时间与上月基本持平。 2025年10月PMI数据 发布日期 2025/10/31 10月份， ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US will suspend the implementation of its Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. In response, China will also suspend its countermeasures against the US for one year [2] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments from the China Development Bank, the Export - Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China have been fully disbursed, expected to drive over 7 trillion yuan in total project investment [2] - The "Henan Province Steel Industry Quality Improvement and Upgrading Action Plan" was issued, aiming to complete the technological transformation or elimination of steel production capacity below the energy - efficiency benchmark level by the end of 2025 [2] - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle's spodumene concentrate ended, with 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene concentrate sold at a tax - inclusive price of 7,058 yuan per ton [2] - Indonesia will issue an export quota of about 400,000 tons of copper concentrate to Amman Mineral for six months [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are iron ore, methanol, ethylene glycol, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Holiday Performance of Overseas Markets Plate Performance - The plate performance shows various percentage changes, with the precious metals plate having a 28.58% increase, coal - coking and steel - mining plate with a 13.56% increase, and so on [3] Plate Position - The data presents the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Different stock indices have different daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.73%, a monthly increase of 2.68%, and an annual increase of 18.95% [5] Fixed - Income - Treasury futures of different maturities also show distinct performance in terms of daily, monthly, and annual changes [5] Commodities - Commodity indices and specific commodities like CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc., have their respective daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [5] Others - The US dollar index and CBOE volatility index have their own performance data [5] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The report shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as related ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [6]

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive overview of overnight futures market trends, important macro and industry news, and financial market developments as of October 31, 2025 [3] Overnight Futures Market Trends International Futures - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.94% at $4038.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.71% at $48.73 per ounce [4] - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures fell, with U.S. crude down 0.31% at $60.29 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.45% at $64.03 per barrel [5] - London base metals all declined, with LME copper down 2.27% at $10930.00 per ton, LME tin down 1.28% at $35720.00 per ton, etc. [5] - U.S. agricultural products showed mixed performance, with soybeans up 1.14%, corn down 1.04%, etc. [6] Domestic Futures - As of 23:00, domestic futures contracts mostly fell, with low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) up over 1%, and ethylene glycol (EG), methanol, etc. down over 1% [8] Important News Macroeconomic News - China and the U.S. will suspend relevant export control measures for one year, and the U.S. will also suspend 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [10] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive project investment of over 7 trillion yuan [10] - The Fed may end balance sheet reduction on December 1 and become a net buyer next year [12] Energy and Chemical Futures - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose, while middle distillates and light distillates inventories declined [16] - China's domestic soda ash inventory slightly decreased, and production increased [16] - China's national float glass inventory decreased, and inventory days decreased [16] Metal Futures - The auction of spodumene concentrate ended at a price of 7058 yuan per ton [19] - Goldman Sachs believes that copper prices may not sustain above $11,000 per ton, and the market will be slightly oversupplied in 2026 [21] - Indonesia will issue a 400,000-ton copper concentrate export quota to Amman Mineral [21] - Global gold demand in Q3 2025 reached a record high [21] Black Futures - Manganese ore production in Gabon decreased in Q3 2025 [27] - China's rebar production increased, and inventories decreased [27] - Henan Province issued an action plan for the steel industry [27] Agricultural Futures - As of October 27, Xinjiang's cotton picking progress was 82.8%, and it is expected to end around November 15 [29] - The physical inventory of red dates increased [30] - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume increased in September [32] - Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production increased in October [32] Financial Markets Stocks - A-shares fell, with technology stocks leading the decline, and the lithium battery industry chain strengthened [34] - Hong Kong stocks declined, with southbound funds net buying HK$13.641 billion [34] - A-share margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and semiconductor stocks were popular among margin traders [34] Industry - The weighted average interest rate of new commercial personal housing loans in Q3 2025 was 3.07% [37] - 21 troubled real estate companies have approved or completed debt restructuring, with a total debt resolution of about 1.2 trillion yuan [37] - The pilot area for pension wealth management products will be expanded to the whole country [37] Overseas Markets - The Fed may select a new chairman before Christmas [40] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% [40] - Eurozone Q3 GDP grew better than expected, but member states' performance was divergent [40] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [40] International Stocks - U.S. stocks fell, with concerns about the economic outlook intensifying [42] - European stocks showed mixed performance, with different factors affecting each country's market [42] - Apple's Q4 revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, and it announced a cash dividend [43] - Amazon's Q3 earnings and revenue exceeded expectations, and it provided positive Q4 guidance [43] Commodities - The World Bank predicts that global commodity prices will decline in 2026 [44] - Hong Kong is accelerating the construction of an international gold trading center [45] - Global gold demand reached a record high in Q3 [45] Bonds - The interbank bond market was bullish, and Meta's bond issuance received strong demand [48] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the market lowered its interest rate cut expectations [49] Foreign Exchange - The central bank plans to develop the RMB foreign exchange derivatives market and promote RMB internationalization [50] - The onshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market opened high and closed low, with the spot market being lukewarm. The downstream domestic demand is sluggish, and there is low acceptance of high prices. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of winter storage [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened high and closed low on October 30, 2025, with the main 2601 contract closing at 1627 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market is tepid, and the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][2]. - The daily urea production has slightly rebounded recently, with some plants under inspection or shut - down, resulting in little production fluctuation. The cost side is strongly supported by the high coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The demand side shows that the operating load of compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the terminal sales are not as expected, and the inventory of finished products in the factory has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1648 yuan/ton, closed at 1627 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.97% and a position of 489700 lots (-3447 lots). On October 30, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, the long position increased by 2773 lots, and the short position decreased by 731 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot market is not active, and the downstream has low acceptance of high prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price declined. Based on Henan, the basis of the January contract was - 47 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [6]. - Supply: On October 30, 2025, the national daily urea production was 19.04 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 80.45% [7]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 155.43 tons, a decrease of 7.59 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.66%. The pre - sale order days were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.62% [11]. - Downstream: From October 24 to October 31, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 31.04%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average utilization rate of Chinese melamine production capacity was 49.98%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from the previous week [13].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 30 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 10 月 30 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。焦煤、丁二烯橡胶、碳酸锂 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 12 月降息预期下降，铜价下挫 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 30 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内下挫。当地时间 10 月 30 日，国家主席习近平在釜山同美 国总统特朗普举行会晤，中美关系破冰，凌晨美联储如期降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利 率下调至 3.75%-4.00%，并宣布自 12 月 1 日起结束资产负债表缩减。供应端，印尼 Grasberg、智利 El Teniente、刚果金卡莫阿等接连发生事故或停产，导致全球铜精矿 供应短缺，国内铜矿库存连续去化，TC/RC 费用高企，提供铜价上行的主要驱动力，消 息人士表示，中国铜原料联合谈判小组决定暂不设定第四季度铜精矿处理费/精炼费指导 价。2025 年 11 月铜产量还有概率继续走低，目前有检修计划的冶炼厂 5 家，且阳极板 供应将持续紧张，铜冶炼原料端缺乏。下游受高价铜的抑制，购买积极性不佳，近日社 会铜库存温和增加，关注后续铜库存消化情况，是否有延续累库趋势。综合来看，美联 储降息会议召开后，市场对于 12 月降息的预期走弱，日盘开盘沪铜下挫，但基本面上矿 山品级下降及矿端的扰动依然上调了对于铜价的普遍预期，且 ...

早盘速递 2025/10/30 2. 今日凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至3.75%-4.00%，为年内第二次降息；并宣布自12月1日起结束 资产负债表缩减。 3. 有报道称，中国在本收获季首次从美国购买大豆，这也是自9月份大豆自美国进口为零后中国首次购买。请问外交部对此有 何评论？外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示，中方在有关问题上的立场是一贯的，具体的问题建议向中方的主管部门进行询问。 4. 矿业巨头嘉能可周三报告称，今年前九个月的铜产量下降了17%，由于部分矿山的矿石品位下降，公司因此收紧了2025年的 产量前瞻指引，尽管第三季度的产量有所上升。 5. 消息人士表示，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（China smelter group）决定暂不设定第四季度铜精矿处理费/精炼费（TC/RC） 指导价。 板块表现 重点关注 铁矿石、螺纹钢、焦煤、沪铜、沪金 假期外盘表现 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% -1.50 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: October 30, 2025 - Content: Covers overnight market trends, important news, and financial market updates Overnight Market Trends International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to $3,941.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to $47.275 per ounce [4][50] Crude Oil - WTI crude oil rose 0.35% to $60.36 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.74% to $64.30 per barrel [5][50] London Base Metals - LME nickel rose 0.71% to $15,405 per ton, LME copper rose 0.47% to $11,090 per ton, LME zinc rose 0.39% to $3,070 per ton, LME lead fell 0.35% to $2,019 per ton, LME aluminum fell 0.66% to $2,870 per ton, and LME tin fell 0.70% to $36,105 per ton [5][50] Domestic Futures - As of 23:00, domestic futures contracts mostly rose. Coking coal rose over 2%, PVC, coke, BR rubber, and low-sulfur fuel oil rose over 1%, iron ore and styrene rose nearly 1%, and glass fell nearly 1% [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Urban Business Quality Improvement Action Plan" to regulate the market order [8] - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 to discuss Sino-US relations [8] - From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 901,000 units, a 0% year-on-year increase, an 8% decrease from the previous month, and a 22% year-to-date increase [8] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending balance sheet reduction on December 1 [9] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of October 29, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 416,000 tons, a 19.16% decrease from the previous period [12] - As of October 27, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah Port, UAE, decreased by 2.258 million barrels [12] - As of October 29, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.5065 million tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons [12] - As of October 25, Japanese commercial crude oil, gasoline, and kerosene inventories decreased, and the refinery operating rate increased to 91.2% [13] - For the week ending October 24, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.858 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserves increased by 533,000 barrels [13] Metal Futures - As of October 29, the FOB alumina price in Western Australia was $319 per ton, and the import window remained open [15][16] - Glencore's copper production in the first nine months decreased by 17%, and it tightened its 2025 production guidance [16] - HSBC expects gold prices to continue rising and peak in the first half of 2026 [17] - Zinc mines in central, northern, and southwestern China will experience production changes in November [17] - The China Smelter Group decided not to set a Q4 copper concentrate TC/RC guidance [18] - China has established a complete lithium product supply system, with lithium carbonate and hydroxide production of about 588,000 and 303,000 tons from January - September [18] - An explosion occurred at a mine in Australia on October 27, causing casualties [18] Black Futures - Shanxi is increasing coal production to meet winter demand, with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters [21] - The third round of coke price increases has begun in Shandong [21] - On October 29, coking coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose [21] - A large factory in Gansu will reduce silicon iron production by about 340 tons per day [22] - On October 29, coal shipments from Qinhuangdao and Jingtang ports showed different trends [22] Agricultural Futures - China may have purchased US soybeans this harvest season [24] - The government of Uttar Pradesh, India, raised the new sugarcane purchase price by 8.1% [26] - Soybean planting in Paraná, Brazil, is progressing rapidly [26] - On October 29, the import costs of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans increased [26] - Rabobank expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177 million tons, an increase of 3% [26] - The Argentine oilseed workers' union may go on strike next week [27] Financial Markets A-Shares - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to 4,016.33, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.93%. A-share trading volume was 2.29 trillion yuan [29] Regulatory News - The CSRC will regulate AI in the capital market and promote reforms in the Beijing Stock Exchange and the New Third Board [31][31] Fund News - As of September, the net asset value of China's public funds reached 36.74 trillion yuan, a record high [31] - Central Huijin's ETF holdings increased by over 200 billion yuan in Q3 [32] North Exchange - As of October 29, 90 out of 133 North Exchange companies had year-on-year revenue growth, and 72 had profit growth [32] M&A Rules - Beijing issued M&A rules to encourage strategic and emerging industry mergers [34] Private Fund - Ningquan Asset will suspend new investor subscriptions starting October 30 [35] Industry News - A 51 billion yuan central enterprise strategic emerging industry fund was launched [36] - The financial regulator promoted the use of the fourth life table in the life insurance industry [36] - The added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry increased by 10.9% in the first three quarters [36] - Five departments launched a three-year action to promote integrated medical and elderly care services [36] - The total social logistics volume in the first three quarters was 263.2 trillion yuan, a 5.4% increase [37] - In September, the automobile dealer inventory coefficient was 1.35, above the reasonable range [38] Overseas News - South Korea and the US reached a trade agreement, with South Korea investing $350 billion and the US reducing auto tariffs [40] - The US Senate passed a bill to end tariffs on Brazilian goods, but the House may delay the vote [40] - The US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies [40] - France plans to raise the digital tax rate on tech giants to 6% [41] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% [41] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.16%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq up 0.55% [42] - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX down 0.64%, the French CAC40 down 0.19%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.61% [44] - The Nikkei 225 rose 2.17% to a new high, and the South Korean Composite Index rose 1.76% [44] - Google, Meta, Microsoft, and other companies released their Q3 earnings [44][45][46] Commodities - International precious metals fell, crude oil rose, and base metals were mixed [50] - Russians are buying more gold, and the Indian central bank is repatriating gold reserves [51] Bonds - The domestic bond market was active, with short-term bond yields falling [53] - Barclays plans to issue up to 4 billion yuan in panda bonds in China [53] - US bond yields rose due to Powell's remarks [53] Foreign Exchange - The onshore RMB rose to a one-year high against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose [54]