Hot News - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fuan, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, funds such as special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be used comprehensively to optimize government investment directions and encourage private capital to participate in major project construction; tax, social security, and transfer payments will be adjusted to optimize the income distribution structure and boost consumption; and work will be done to replace the existing implicit debts of local governments, with strict accountability for illegal debt-raising and false debt reduction [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing PMI was 50.1, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, pointed out that the real estate development, financing, and sales systems need to be reformed and improved. In terms of commercial housing sales, the spot sales system will be promoted to fundamentally prevent delivery risks; for pre-sales, the supervision of pre-sale funds will be standardized to protect the legitimate rights and interests of homebuyers [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that soybean meal and corn series options contracts will be listed for trading on February 2, 2026 (i.e., the night session on January 30). The first batch of contracts will start with the series options contracts corresponding to soybean meal M2607 and corn C2607 [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued an announcement on the tax policy for gold, which will be implemented from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027. Industry insiders believe that the policy further improves the existing gold market policy, better distinguishes the commodity and financial attributes of gold, and the adjustment of the VAT policy for gold purchased on the exchange is expected to make the gold market consumption and investment environment more transparent and healthy [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and PVC [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a 3.11% increase; precious metals had a 29.39% increase; oilseeds and oils had a 9.56% increase; non-ferrous metals had a 23.08% increase; soft commodities had a 2.66% increase; coal, coke, and steel mines had a 13.49% increase; energy had a 2.87% increase; chemicals had a 10.78% increase; grains had a 1.15% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.92% increase [4] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, and steel mines, Wind non-ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non-metallic building materials [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.81%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.99%; the SSE 50 had a daily decline of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 12.17%; the CSI 300 had a daily decline of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 17.94%; the CSI 500 had a daily decline of 0.74%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 28.04%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.26%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 16.30%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.43%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 29.15%; the German DAX had a daily decline of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 20.34%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.12%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 31.37%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily decline of 0.44%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 18.89% [6] Fixed Income - The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.04%, an annual decrease of 0.22%; the 5-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.45%; the 2-year treasury bond futures had a daily decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of 0.42% [6] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.59%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 1.96%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -15.36%; London spot gold had a daily decline of -0.54%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 52.53%; LME copper had a daily decline of -0.23%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 24.03%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 30.63% [6] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.19%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual decrease of -8.07%; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 3.13%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and an annual increase of 0.52% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although cost increases and macro - warming have promoted a short - term rebound in PP, its upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 29% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. Crude oil prices fluctuated [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently [1] - The weather has improved, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season. Although most PP downstream industries are expected to continue to rise, the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. The stocking demand after the National Day has weakened, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,582 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,669 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,590 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.21%. The position increased by 11,355 lots to 624,690 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,390 - 6,670 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons week - on - week, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 01 dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with polysilicon and precious metals rising, and lithium carbonate and some industrial products falling. The capital flow shows significant inflows into polysilicon and soybean meal, and large outflows from copper and gold futures. Different varieties have different market conditions due to factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - policies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of October 31, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Polysilicon rose over 2%, and silver, soybean meal, and gold futures rose over 1%. Lithium carbonate fell over 3%, and many other commodities like 20 - rubber and methanol fell over 2%. In stock index futures, IF, IH, and IC declined, while IM rose slightly. In bond futures, 2 - year and 5 - year contracts fell slightly, and 10 - year and 30 - year contracts rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2601, soybean meal 2601, and PVC2601 had capital inflows, while copper 2512, gold 2512, and CSI 1000 2512 had large outflows [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Varieties - **Copper**: The Fed's reduced probability of a December rate cut and a stronger dollar suppress copper prices. Although the supply of copper concentrates is tight due to overseas mine accidents, high copper prices have curbed downstream demand. In the long - term, copper prices remain strong due to tight supply - demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. The cost of lithium ore supports the price, and both supply and demand are strong. However, today's market was affected by news, and attention should be paid to the authenticity of the news [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production, the demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the US sanctions on Russian oil companies may limit exports, the overall supply is still in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. Considering the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, it is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [15]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at a low level. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but less than expected. The cost is affected by crude oil, and plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: The supply and downstream operating rates have increased. Exports are expected to weaken, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is still adjusting, and PVC is expected to fluctuate [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. Although the downstream demand has decreased, the winter - storage demand will be released, and coking coal remains strong [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The demand has improved slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [23].

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年10月31日 【行情分析】 10月5日，OPEC+八国决定将在11月进一步增产13.7万桶/日。下次会议将于11月2日举行，预计继 续维持13.7万桶/日增产节奏。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力。原油需求旺季结束，不过EIA数据 显示EIA数据显示美国原油和成品油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存继续减少。EIA月报预计2025年四 季度全球石油库存增幅约260万桶/日，IEA月报预测全球石油过剩幅度加剧。消费旺季结束、美国非 农就业数据疲软，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，伊拉克库尔德地区的原油出口重启，中东地 区出口增加。原油仍是供应过剩格局，不过美国对俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的 两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公司及其子公司，特朗普称取消与普京在布达佩斯的会面， 俄罗斯原油出口预期受限，美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级。俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口 俄罗斯原油。不过印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。在欧 美制裁俄罗斯石油公司后，印度最大的私营炼油商信实工业表示将调整炼油厂的运营以满足合规要 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the social inventory has slightly decreased, the maintenance of production enterprises such as Hangjin Technology is about to end, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The supply is relatively high, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak, while the export outlook is also uncertain [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region has dropped by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26% and is at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has continued to rise but is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. The quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has been lowered by 30 - 40 dollars/ton in November. The anti - dumping duty on PVC imports from the Chinese mainland in India has been raised by about 50 dollars/ton, weakening the export expectation in the fourth quarter, but the export in September was still good [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real estate industry was still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has declined, remaining near the lowest level in recent years, and the real estate improvement still takes time [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, such as Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into production in early September and approaching full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at a low load after trial production [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in a volatile manner with increased positions. The lowest price was 4,687 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,768 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,701 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.80%. The open interest increased by 52,808 lots to 1,214,725 lots [2]. - On October 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,660 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,701 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 41 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking Supply - The production of devices such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng and Shandong Xinfa has increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. There are new production capacities coming on stream, including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua [4]. Demand - From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completion area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The overall real - estate improvement still takes time [5]. - As of the week of October 26, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.09% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. Inventory - As of the week of October 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 1.03 million tons, 25.09% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still relatively high [6].

注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征 个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 月差 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 仓单数量合计（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1000 2000 3000 主要仓库、厂库仓单数量（张） 432处 安阳万庄库 衡水棉麻库 宁陵史丹利库 中农云仓库 河北东光库 云图控股库 中农控股库 晋控天庆库 中原大化库 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -180 -80 20 120 220 320 420 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 宏观影响，沪铜回调 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 31 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内下降。宏观方面美联储如期降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利 率下调至 3.75%-4.00%，但后续降息概率降低。供应端，印尼 Grasberg、智利 El Teniente、刚果金卡莫阿等接连发生事故或停产，导致全球铜精矿供应短缺，国内铜矿 库存连续去化，TC/RC 费用高企，提供铜价上行的主要驱动力，消息人士表示，中国铜 原料联合谈判小组决定暂不设定第四季度铜精矿处理费/精炼费指导价。2025 年 11 月铜 产量还有概率继续走低，目前有检修计划的冶炼厂 5 家，且阳极板供应将持续紧张，铜 冶炼原料端缺乏。下游受高价铜的抑制，购买积极性不佳，近日社会铜库存温和增加， 关注后续铜库存消化情况，是否有延续累库趋势。综合来看，美联储 12 月降息概率下 降，美元偏强压制铜价，且前期铜价偏高下游畏高情绪严重，目前下跌以回调思路看 待，供需偏紧下，铜价中长期依然偏强。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows a slight change in production, with the开工 rate increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand side is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 0.454 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 0.274 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries have intermittent production, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Demand: This week, most of the开工 rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, while the south is inquiring about low - priced goods [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Price: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. The crude oil price is oscillating. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.58% to 3,244 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,270 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3,151 to 199,947 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,270 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 fell to 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related indicators: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight increase from - 3.3% from January to August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from January to August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under a high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]