【冠通研究】 延续上涨 期货方面：沪铜高开高走，震荡偏强，尾盘于 82470 元/吨。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-15 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 70 元/吨。2025 年 9 月 25 日，LME 官方价 10320 美元/吨，现货升贴水-8 美元/吨。 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，震荡偏强。美国 GDP 增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，强 劲的数据增加了美联储未来降息路径的不确定性，市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。截止 9 月 19 日，我国现货粗炼费（TC）-40.64 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.05 美分/磅，TC/RC 费 用保持弱稳。冶炼厂 9 月检修较多，目前中小冶炼厂盈利承压，后续精铜供应依然紧张 态势。8 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 117.15 万吨，环比减少 0.24%，同比上升 15.59%。受 政策影响 9 月废铜供应量将明显下降，预计 9 月电解铜产量将大幅下降。精炼铜进口方 面，8 月进口铜数量环比上月下降至 30.72 万吨，环比-2.73 万吨。需求端目前交易节前 补货逻辑，带动上期所库存近几日有所去化，综合来看，受美联 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market showed a pattern of opening high and closing low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day holiday are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. Overall, the market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened high and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. Upstream factory pre - orders for the National Day are not full, futures rebound is weak, and prices are under pressure. The daily output of urea has rebounded to around 200,000 tons, and high production will continue to suppress prices. The demand is mainly for National Day orders, and the future demand concentration probability is low. The inventory in urea factories is increasing and is higher than the same period in previous years. The market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak rebound and no fundamental support. Near the holiday, caution is needed regarding market fluctuations [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1,676 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations, and finally closed at 1,669 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The trading volume was 292,033 lots, a decrease of 9,861 lots compared to the previous day. On September 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,241, a decrease of 294 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - The pre - orders of upstream factories for the National Day are not yet fully received, and the futures rebound lacks strength, putting pressure on the urea market price. The ex - factory transaction price range of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,560 - 1,600 yuan/ton, with Hebei factories having higher quotes. High - quote factories are mainly fulfilling some export orders for port collection [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 59 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [7] Supply Data - On September 26, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 204,300 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.32% [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the price change statistics of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays in the past ten and five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, etc., to show their historical performance during the holidays [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog a. Ten - year Average and Median Statistics - The ten - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are as follows: NYMEX crude oil 3.18%, NYMEX natural gas 0.97%, COMEX gold 0.08%, etc. The ten - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 3.33%, NYMEX natural gas - 1.57%, COMEX gold 0.30%, etc [1][4]. b. Five - year Average and Median Statistics - The five - year average price changes during the National Day holidays are: NYMEX crude oil 5.75%, NYMEX natural gas 0.73%, COMEX gold 0.14%, etc. The five - year median price changes are: NYMEX crude oil 4.97%, NYMEX natural gas - 3.19%, COMEX gold 0.21%, etc [2][4]. c. Annual Price Changes from 2015 - 2024 - The report details the price changes of each commodity and index during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024. For example, NYMEX crude oil had a 6.15% change in 2015, 3.12% in 2016, and - 4.63% in 2017 [4].

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 14000.28 336.4 9736.39 299.28 2675 40.05 242.36 84.45 90.86 58.01 -10.50 上期 13801.08 339.17 9309.43 297.45 2362.3 40.4 241.02 83.98 90.35 58.87 -8.00 周变动 199.20 -2.77 426.96 1.83 312.70 -0.35 1.34 0.47 0.51 -0.86 -2.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10916.44 1722.13 278.65 1083.06 本期 9061.84 5354.52 5916.19 上期 10811.42 1671.76 291.24 1026.66 上期 8980.59 5266.52 5775.57 周变动 105.02 50.37 -12.59 56.4 周变动 81.25 88 140.62 免责声明： 铁矿石库存周度数据 研究咨询部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US GDP in the second quarter had an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, a significant increase from the revised value of 3.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years, mainly due to unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports. The final value of the core PCE price index was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the export ban on gasoline resellers and producers until the end of the year, except for supplies under inter - governmental agreements [2]. - As of the week ending September 25, the production of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for rebar was 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.96% [2]. - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the daily price limit range for industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, for polysilicon futures contracts to 11%, and for lithium carbonate futures contracts to 10%. The margin standard for speculative trading will be adjusted to 12%, and for hedging trading to 11% [2]. - The "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has led to continuously low processing fees for copper concentrates, which is the most prominent problem in the industry. Industry enterprises should oppose this kind of competition [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot News - US second - quarter GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, core PCE price index final value was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year [2]. - Rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, apparent demand increased, and social inventory decreased in the week ending September 25 [2]. - Adjustments to the daily price limit range and margin standards for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [2]. - The copper smelting industry's "involution - style" competition problem was discussed at a meeting, and enterprises were urged to oppose it [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai Copper, Silver, Asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials (2.78%), Precious metals (31.98%), Oilseeds and oils (10.17%), Soft commodities (2.41%), Non - ferrous metals (20.18%), Coal, coke, and steel (13.66%), Energy (2.95%), Chemicals (11.55%), Grains (1.06%), Agricultural and sideline products (3.26%) [4]. Plate Position - Information about the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days is presented, but specific change values are not clearly summarized here due to the complex data form [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.12%, and annual change of 14.96%; S&P 500 had a daily change of - 0.50%, monthly change of 2.75%, and annual change of 12.86%; and other equity indices had corresponding changes [7]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.19%, and annual change of - 1.21%; 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of 0.05% and an annual change of - 0.92%; 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of - 0.09% and an annual change of - 0.63% [7]. - **Commodities**: CRB Commodity Index had a monthly change of - 0.82% and an annual change of 1.06%; WTI crude oil had a daily change of 0.38%, monthly change of 1.06%, and annual change of - 10.00%; London spot gold had a daily change of 0.34%, monthly change of 8.38%, and annual change of 42.36% [7]. - **Others**: US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.61%, monthly change of 0.02%, and annual change of - 9.79%; CBOE Volatility Index had a monthly change of 8.33% and an annual change of - 4.09% [7].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.33%报 3780.5 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.89%报 45.47 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨 0.35%，报 65.22 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.5%，报 68.8 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期镍跌 1.15%报 15240 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.59%报 10275.50 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.53%报 2922.5 美元/吨，LME 期铅涨 0.48%报 2009 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 0.47%报 2664 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 0.20%报 34390 美元/吨。 4. 截至 2:20 收盘，美大豆涨 0.30%，美玉米涨 0.12%，美豆油涨 0.72%，美豆 粕跌 1.01%，美小 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to supply disruptions at the Grasberg mine, weak TC/RC fees, reduced scrap copper supply, and strong demand before the holiday [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand balance of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies due to OPEC+ production adjustments, the end of the peak travel season, and concerns about demand [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a volatile manner due to increased supply, limited demand, and potential pressure on crude oil prices [13]. - **PP**: PP is expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by new capacity, increased downstream demand during the peak season, but with less - than - expected demand and no anti - involution policies [15]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to move sideways. The market is influenced by new capacity, improving downstream demand in the peak season, but with less - than - expected demand and no anti - involution policies [16][17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term due to increased supply, weak export expectations, high inventory, and slow real - estate recovery [18]. - **Urea**: The weak reality of the urea market remains unchanged. The price may experience a technical rebound, but the supply is still abundant, with pressure around 1730 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of September 25, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Container shipping to Europe increased nearly 4%, and some metals and agricultural products also had significant gains. Some contracts like gold, cotton, and rubber declined slightly. Among stock index futures, most rose except for IM, and among bond futures, most declined except for TL [6]. 3.2 Fund Flows - As of 15:16 on September 25, the main contracts of domestic futures saw funds flowing into沪铜2511 (5.346 billion yuan),沪深300 2512 (1.257 billion yuan), and菜油2601 (880 million yuan), and flowing out of中证1000 2512 (3.222 billion yuan),沪金2512 (2.353 billion yuan), and中证500 2512 (1.2 billion yuan) [8]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident disrupted supply. TC/RC fees were weak, and smelter profits were under pressure. August production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. September production is expected to drop significantly. Demand for pre - holiday restocking is strong [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will adjust production in October, increasing pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak travel season is over, and refinery operating rates are falling. However, inventory drawdowns and geopolitical factors are affecting prices [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased slightly but remained low. September production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is restricted by funds and weather. Cost support has strengthened, but futures prices are expected to decline [13]. - **PP**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly but remained low. New capacity has been put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices. Demand during the peak season is less than expected [15]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate increased to a neutral level. The downstream demand in the peak season is improving but not as expected. New capacity has been added [16]. - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, and downstream demand increased during the peak season. Export expectations are weak, and inventory is high. New capacity has been launched [18]. - **Urea**: The daily production has recovered, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the market is in a weak situation [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China announces new climate targets, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas net emissions by 7% - 10% from the peak by 2035, increase non - fossil energy consumption to over 30%, and achieve other goals [2] - Six departments jointly issue a work plan for the building materials industry, targeting green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - The US and the EU finalize a tariff agreement, with a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1st and some EU products on the tariff exemption list from September 1st [2] - Zhengshang Institute and Shangqi Institute adjust trading margin standards and price limit ranges for multiple futures contracts from September 29th [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot News - China's new climate targets include reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing non - fossil energy use, and more by 2035 [2] - The building materials industry work plan aims to boost green building materials revenue and control traditional capacity [2] - The US - EU tariff agreement involves tariffs and exemptions on various products [2] - Futures exchanges adjust trading margins and price limits for multiple contracts [3] Key Focus - Focus on commodities such as urea, Shanghai copper, polysilicon, crude oil, and PP [4] Night - session Performance - Different commodity futures sectors show various night - session performance, with precious metals up 33.25%, non - metallic building materials up 2.66%, etc. [4] Plate Holdings - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate holdings in the past five days [5] Major Asset Performance - Different asset classes have different daily, monthly, and annual returns. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily increase of 0.83%, an annual increase of 14.97%, etc. [7] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities through various charts, including the BDI index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, etc. [9]