Group 1: Report Summary - The historical price fluctuations of overseas commodities during the National Day holiday are generally within -3% to 4%, but the amplitude has increased in recent years, especially for crude oil [4]. - In 2025, after the Fed restarted interest rate cuts, the market is in a transition period, with various assets showing significant divergence and contradictions, and prices fluctuating sharply [8]. - Domestically, there has been a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality. After the Fed's September interest rate cut, the market's optimism declined, and asset prices adjusted [9]. Group 2: Market Outlook Overseas Market - The situation in the Russia - Ukraine war and the Middle East is tense, which may impact crude oil and freight rates. The US September non - farm payroll data will affect the Fed's future interest rate cut path and the new macro - logic [8]. Domestic Market - The domestic market has shown a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market turned to focus on the economic fundamentals. The anti - involution policy has achieved initial results but still has a long way to go [9]. Group 3: Positioning Strategies Shanghai Copper (SHFE Copper) - Fundamentals remain tight in the long - term. In the short - term, there may be a correction due to high prices, and it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the National Day holiday [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market has support, but the overall supply - demand situation is still loose. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [15]. Coking Coal - The supply - demand tightness has improved, with short - term corrections. It is recommended to be out of the market or hold a small short position [17]. Crude Oil - Supply - demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices in the long - term and be out of the market during the holiday [20][22]. Asphalt - Cost support has strengthened, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure on crude oil is high. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [24]. PP (Polypropylene) - Expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday due to increased margin requirements [25]. Plastic - Expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday due to increased margin requirements [28]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to hold a light short position during the holiday [31][33]. Urea - In a supply - demand surplus situation, with short - term technical rebounds and low - level oscillations. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [35][36]. Group 4: Holiday Financial Events and Macro Data - During the National Day holiday, important economic data such as China's September official manufacturing PMI and the US September non - farm payroll data will be released, which are worthy of attention [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Review of the 2025 Macroeconomic and Asset Performance - In 2025, the world entered the Trump 2.0 era. The US initiated tariff trade wars, which impacted the global economy and its own capital market. China responded firmly, leading to a shift from passive to active in the Sino - US game. The first quarter saw a tech - stock market driven by DeepSeek, and the second quarter turned pessimism into optimism. In the second half of the year, a new wave of bull markets in stocks and commodities emerged, with abundant liquidity, anti - involution, and AI investment as driving forces. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, and the global macro - logic of capital markets was about to shift [6]. - Global asset performance showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak commodities in 2025. Global stock markets rose, with Asia - Pacific stocks leading the gains. The US stock market reached new highs, and the A - share market reached a ten - year high. The US dollar index declined significantly, while non - US currencies strengthened. Among commodities, the CRB index rose slightly, with significant internal differentiation. Precious metals were strong, and some agricultural products like soybean oil performed well [7]. Outlook for the Fourth - Quarter Macroeconomic - Globally, with the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, the US economy is likely to recover, and the macro - trading logic of capital markets will shift from interest - rate cut trading to recovery trading. However, there are still uncertainties, and the impact of tariff disputes and Trump's intervention on the Fed's decision - making may lead to inflation and make the interest - rate cut path more variable [11]. - In China, the market has shown a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality in 2025. The economy has the characteristic of "five weaknesses and one strength" (weak consumption, investment, credit, prices, and interest rates, but strong exports). In the fourth quarter, external demand will face headwinds due to the trade war, and domestic demand remains insufficient. The anti - involution logic has become an important macro - trading line [12]. Asset Allocation - Globally, the expectation of US economic recovery and the loose liquidity in the second half of the interest - rate cut cycle will boost investors' risk appetite. Equity assets and commodities will benefit, especially silver and copper. Gold can be appropriately increased during its correction [16]. - Domestically, under the macro - environment of weak recovery and global currency easing, the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise steadily. The stock and commodity futures markets are likely to attract funds, and a new structural commodity bull market may emerge [17]. Structural Bull Market in Commodities - In the fourth quarter, the Fed's interest - rate cut and anti - involution may trigger a new structural commodity bull market. Silver and copper will benefit from the shift to recovery trading after the interest - rate cut, and coking coal and new - energy varieties will benefit if the domestic economy weakens more than expected [21]. - The current macro - background is different from previous commodity bull markets. A comprehensive and universal bull market is less likely, and a "structurally differentiated" pattern is more probable [22]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review PEST Macro - environment Analysis - Politically, the world is moving from G2 to G0, showing a multi - polar and fragmented trend. Economically, the global economic pattern is being reshaped, with differences in growth and inflation across regions. Socially, there are various ideological and social issues around the world, while China is strengthening national and traditional cultural confidence. Technologically, the emergence of DeepSeek has changed the global technological landscape, leading to a shift in investment and capital flows [29]. Global and Domestic Asset Performance - Globally, in 2025, assets showed a pattern of strong stocks and weak commodities. Global stock markets rose, the US dollar index declined, and commodities had internal differentiation. Domestically, the futures market showed strong stocks, weak bonds, and differentiated commodities, with precious metals performing outstandingly [41][43]. Reasons for Market Movements - Asset prices reflect investors' expectations rather than just economic reality. The difference between macro - data and market sentiment is due to the gap between expectations and reality. The shift in expectations is related to events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the emergence of DeepSeek, and China's policy responses [55][63]. - The performance of US stocks and Chinese real estate has opposite wealth effects on their respective economies. The shift in expectations in the domestic market is due to factors such as technological breakthroughs, cultural confidence, and policy support, leading to a re - evaluation of Chinese assets and a change in investors' risk preferences [59][66]. Global and Domestic Economic Analysis Global Economic Situation - The global economic recovery is under pressure due to tariff wars. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is approaching the end, and different economies have different economic and policy situations. The global economic growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, and the US tariff has a negative impact on the global economy [73][74]. US Economic Situation - The US economy shows signs of stagflation. The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut, but Trump's intervention may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US economic recovery is expected in the fourth quarter, but there are risks such as insufficient recovery strength and inflation [90][115]. Chinese Economic Situation - China's economy has shown a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality in 2025. The economy is facing internal and external challenges, with real - estate drag on the domestic side and trade - war impacts on the external side. The government has implemented various policies, and the anti - involution logic has emerged. The key to economic recovery lies in price changes, especially PPI [123][155]. - Fiscal policy has been proactive, but local finance is under pressure due to the decline of land finance. Monetary policy is moderately loose, with measures such as interest - rate and reserve - ratio cuts [160][172].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical situation is still under control in local areas without significantly impacting crude oil exports. However, events like Israel's attack on Qatar, the deadlock in the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, and the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue may disrupt the crude oil market. Special attention should be paid to whether Europe and the United States will impose secondary sanctions on buyers of sensitive crude oil from Russia and Venezuela. If the geopolitical situation escalates and affects crude oil production or transportation, it will stimulate a rapid increase in crude oil prices [6][127]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ is committed to a gradual increase in production to maintain market share, planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October. Currently, the actual production increase rate is lower than the planned target, but the pace has been accelerating recently. Due to strong power generation demand in the Middle East during the third quarter, the supply shock from OPEC+'s production increase has not yet arrived, and global crude oil inventories have not increased significantly. It should be noted that, except for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, other OPEC+ countries have limited production increase capabilities, and OPEC+'s actual production increase in the fourth quarter will still be lower than the target rate. The actual production fulfillment of OPEC+ in the fourth quarter is a key point closely watched by the market. Additionally, among non-OPEC+ countries, Brazil and Guyana are bringing new production capacities into operation, gradually fulfilling their production increase plans and becoming the main drivers of the global crude oil production increase. The production of US shale oil is flexible, and the current oil price has not led to a decline in US crude oil production. It is expected that non-OPEC+ supply will increase by about 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 [6][127]. - On the demand side, the peak season for crude oil travel demand ends in the fourth quarter, and Europe and the United States enter the autumn maintenance season in October. Future seasonal demand should focus on winter heating demand. Amid ongoing global trade wars and the transition to new energy sources, special attention should be paid to China-US trade negotiations. Poor non-farm payrolls in the US have raised market concerns, and the slow global economic recovery makes the outlook for crude oil demand pessimistic. The US resumed interest rate cuts in September, and the impact of these cuts on global crude oil demand should be monitored. Overall, the supply and demand of crude oil will weaken in the fourth quarter, with a high probability of inventory accumulation. It is expected that crude oil prices still have room to fall, and the Brent crude oil price is likely to drop below $60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to whether oil-producing countries will implement production cuts in response to the continuous decline in oil prices [6][127]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In September, due to increased sanctions on Iran, considerations by Europe and the United States to further sanction Russia, the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian crude oil exports, and the continuous increase in freight rates, domestic crude oil contracts performed stronger relative to international crude oil prices [14]. - The current Brent basis is at a normal level [19]. - Recently, the Brent monthly spread has rebounded following the single-sided price, but the rebound strength is relatively weak [27]. - In late August 2025, the non-commercial net long position of WTI continued to decline and is currently at its lowest level since 2011. The net long position of ICE Brent funds is at a neutral level in the past decade. The Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly since April 2025, with a limited increase range, and is at a low level in recent years [35]. Crude Oil Production - Since 2020, OPEC+ has adhered to production cuts to raise oil prices and maintain fiscal balance. However, non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana have continuously increased their crude oil production, squeezing OPEC+'s market share through exports. In addition, some OPEC+ countries, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, have consistently exceeded their production quotas. Except for the period at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, crude oil prices have mostly been under downward pressure. Facing great fiscal pressure due to the slow global economic recovery, OPEC+ began to gradually relax production cuts in 2025 [40]. - On September 7, OPEC+ announced that, considering the stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals (reflected in low crude oil inventory levels), eight countries decided to adjust their production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023. This adjustment will take effect in October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5. On September 8, countries such as Iraq submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply [45]. - According to the latest OPEC monthly report, OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day. In August 2025, its production increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant year-on-year increase of 1.296 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. In August, OPEC+'s crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day month-on-month, indicating an acceleration of production increase [45]. - According to the OPEC monthly report, the production of the eight additional production-cutting OPEC+ countries increased to 32.18 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 1.22 million barrels per day compared to March, which is lower than the production increase target of 1.92 million barrels per day. This means that the supply shock from OPEC+'s production increase has not yet materialized. The main reasons are that the production increases in Iraq and Russia have fallen short of the targets, while Kazakhstan has been overproducing. Among OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have theoretical idle production capacities of nearly 2.5 million barrels per day and 1 million barrels per day respectively, with huge production increase potential, while other member countries have limited production increase space [48]. - Attention should also be paid to the changes in the crude oil production of Iran and Venezuela, which are subject to increased US sanctions. According to the OPEC monthly report, Iran's crude oil production in August was 3.218 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 27,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year decrease of 81,000 barrels per day. Before the US sanctions, Iran's crude oil production was 3.8 million barrels per day. Since February 2025, the US has imposed multiple sanctions on Iranian crude oil-related tankers, traders, ports, and buyers. Iran's crude oil production has been continuously declining slightly since June 2025. Due to the large discount on Iranian crude oil, independent refineries in Shandong still preferentially purchase Iranian crude oil. Venezuela's crude oil production in August was 936,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 12,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year increase of 60,000 barrels per day. In late July, after the US Treasury Department issued a limited license to Chevron, Venezuela's crude oil and fuel exports in August reached their highest level since November 2024. However, in September, the US deployed warships in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela under the pretext of "fighting drug trafficking" and carried out military operations. Venezuela held military exercises and protests, and the relationship between the two countries became tense. According to the latest regulations issued by the US, only about half of the crude oil produced by Chevron's joint venture in Venezuela can be exported. Considering that the US imported about 230,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela in 2024, accounting for 35% of Venezuela's total exports, Venezuela's crude oil exports may be restricted [52]. - The number of US oil rigs did not increase after Trump took office. From April to July 2025, due to the decline in oil prices, US shale oil producers reduced their capital expenditures, and the number of US oil rigs decreased significantly. Since August, it has rebounded slightly. As of September 19, 2025, the number of US oil rigs was 418, 70 less than the same period last year and 65 less than the end of 2024. US crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day in the week ending September 19. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 130,000 barrels per day from the record high set in early December last year. Since 2025, US crude oil production has remained around the historical high of 13.5 million barrels per day. Previously, the continuous decline in crude oil prices in April led to a decrease in US crude oil production, but recently, US crude oil production has increased slightly. The current oil price has not led to a decline in US crude oil production. The latest short-term energy outlook from the EIA predicts that US crude oil production will increase by 240,000 and 80,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2025 and 2026 respectively, reaching 13.44 million and 13.3 million barrels per day, which are slightly revised up by 40,000 barrels per day and 20,000 barrels per day respectively compared to the previous monthly outlook report [55]. - With the gradual commissioning of deep-water projects, Brazil and Guyana have become important drivers of crude oil production growth among non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries. On February 18, 2025, Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy announced that Brazil officially joined the "OPEC+" alliance. Brazil plans to invest $77 billion from 2025 to 2029, aiming to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025, reaching an annual production of 3.9 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 500,000 barrels per day, and an additional increase of 220,000 barrels per day in 2026. In July 2025, Brazil's crude oil production had increased to 3.75 million barrels per day. In July 2025, Guyana's crude oil production increased to 670,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project in Guyana was put into operation ahead of schedule in early August, and it is expected that production will reach 900,000 barrels per day by the end of the year. According to the plan, the ExxonMobil consortium plans to deploy six FPSOs by 2027, targeting a production capacity of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027. By 2030, with the full commissioning of eight FPSOs, the total production capacity is expected to reach 1.7 million barrels per day [60]. Crude Oil Demand - China is the world's second-largest crude oil consumer and the largest crude oil importer, with about 70% of its crude oil imported. From January to August, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume was 488.072 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, reaching a historical high for the same period. In August, China's crude oil imports increased by 4.85% month-on-month and 0.79% year-on-year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 376.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [65]. - According to the weekly data from Longzhong Information, China's domestic crude oil processing volume has been increasing since August. As of the week ending September 19, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.8241 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.12% and a month-on-month increase of 0.26%. Currently, the domestic crude oil processing volume is only lower than that of the same period in 2023 [70]. - The US PCE and core PCE year-on-year growth rates in August were 2.9% and 3.1% respectively, both in line with expectations. On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut since December 2024. The dot plot released along with the policy meeting minutes also showed that Fed officials expect to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points by the end of the year and 25 basis points each year in the next two years [73]. - The US Markit PMI data in September was still above the 50-point threshold, but both manufacturing and service sector activities slowed down. The preliminary US Markit manufacturing PMI in September was 52, the lowest in two months; the preliminary US Markit services PMI was 53.9, the lowest in three months; and the preliminary US Markit composite PMI was 53.6, the lowest in three months. The manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan were below the threshold, indicating weak global overall demand recovery. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the non-farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, in line with market expectations. The non-farm payrolls in June were revised down by 27,000 to -13,000. The poor US non-farm payroll data has raised market concerns [82]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity. The year-on-year actual growth rate of China's industrial added value above designated size in August was 5.2% (all added value growth rates are real growth rates after deducting price factors), down 0.5 percentage points from July and 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.37% in August. From January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 6.2%. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of manufacturing enterprises above designated size was 5.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from July and 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. In addition, the year-on-year growth rates of social retail sales and cumulative fixed asset investment both decreased compared to July [86]. - From mid-June to August 2025, during the peak season of downstream crude oil demand, the gasoline crack spreads in Europe and the US continued to rise, especially in August, which was significantly stronger than the same period last year. According to seasonal patterns, Americans usually travel during the period from Memorial Day (the last Monday in May) to Labor Day (the first Monday in September), which is the so-called travel peak season. Around October, US refineries will undergo autumn maintenance, and the refinery operating rate will decline from its peak [91]. - The diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US showed a similar trend to the gasoline crack spreads but had a larger year-on-year increase. Due to restrictions on importing Russian diesel and low ARA diesel inventories, in August, Europe's diesel imports from the US and the Middle East increased by 28% year-on-year, significantly driving up the diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US [95]. September Institutional Monthly Report Expectations - Amid slow global economic growth, increasing trade frictions, and energy transition, EIA, IEA, and OPEC have continuously lowered their forecasts for global crude oil demand growth. The three major crude oil research institutions have generally lowered the global crude oil demand growth forecast by about 300,000 barrels per day compared to the initial forecast at the beginning of the year. In the latest September monthly report, the EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. In addition, the EIA raised the average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but it expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. OPEC maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [99]. US Crude Oil Data - As of the week ending September 19, US crude oil imports increased by 803,000 barrels per day to 6.495 million barrels per day, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years; US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3, urea prices were boosted multiple times by domestic anti - involution measures, urea export quota news, and the friendly relationship between China and India. After the domestic positive news was realized, domestic demand was weak, prices declined successively, and the spot decline was greater than the futures decline, gradually turning into futures premium [5]. - In the context of loose supply and demand, urea remains in a weak - running state. The spot price may remain oscillating at a low level around 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. A negative feedback mechanism may form where low prices attract orders, but downstream buyers' "buy - on - rising" behavior leads to sporadic downstream demand. For the futures market, the 01 contract should pay short - term attention to the pressure level around 1,730 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract should focus on the 1,750/1,770 yuan/ton pressure levels. It is expected to mainly sell on rebounds in Q4 [6]. - On the supply side, affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, urea production decreased quarter - on - quarter. However, with subsequent capacity expansion and the resumption of factory operations, it is expected that after the production recovers, the daily urea output will still fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year due to high - level capacity [6][52]. - On the demand side, since Q3, the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but remained at the same level as previous years, without bringing new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined to digest high - level inventories. Industrial demand is relatively sluggish. Although the consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year, weak real - estate data has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the export quota is far less than the surplus in urea supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern [6]. Summaries by Directory Q3 Market Review - Urea prices in Q3 showed a complex trend. Initially, prices were affected by factors such as gas - head device复产, changes in downstream factory operating rates, and export news, resulting in fluctuations including price drops, rebounds, and high - level consolidations. Eventually, after the export positive news was realized, domestic demand was insufficient, and the market was under pressure to decline due to oversupply [9]. - Due to continued capacity expansion and high - level inventory, urea prices have been lower year - on - year this year and are currently at the lowest level in the same period. It is expected to fluctuate between 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton in Q4. After the price fell below 1,600 yuan/ton, downstream buyers started to increase purchases as the futures price rebounded. However, domestic demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, and a negative feedback mechanism may form [21]. - In terms of the term structure, urea maintains a contango structure with near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 1 - 5 spread remains in a discount state. With insufficient domestic demand and continuous inventory accumulation in the industry, the 01 contract oscillates at a low level. It is expected that the 1 - 5 spread will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [27]. - Currently, the basis is low, and the market is in a futures premium stage, suitable for selling hedging. After the basis strengthens, hedging supplies may enter the market, increasing market liquidity. The overall basis fluctuation is small, and it is expected to oscillate with a small amplitude in Q4 [37]. - According to Zhengshang Institute data, the settlement price of the 09 contract was 1,643 yuan/ton, with a 17 - yuan/ton premium for Henan spot and a 37 - yuan/ton premium for Hebei spot. The delivery volume of the UR2509 contract was about 4,274 lots, and the nominal delivery volume was about 85,480 tons, an increase of 3,204 lots compared to the 09 contract last year. The significant increase in futures delivery volume and registered warehouse receipts shows the loose market pattern of urea this year [41]. Supply Analysis - As of now, 3.12 million tons of new urea capacity have been put into operation in 2025, and another 3.56 million tons are expected to be commissioned in Q4. Although some backward capacity is being phased out, the overall capacity is still increasing [47]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative urea production was about 47.4467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2092 million tons (+9.74%). Affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, production decreased quarter - on - quarter. After subsequent capacity expansion and factory resumption, daily production is expected to fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year [52]. - According to Longzhong's statistics, about 63.8 million tons of capacity within a 20 - year operating cycle account for 84% of the total capacity. The impact of anti - involution measures on urea production is limited. Although coal prices have increased significantly due to anti - involution, coal - based enterprises still have profits, so the impact on urea is currently small. However, if coal prices continue to rise or urea prices fall, cost support may emerge [56][60]. - As of September 25, the gross profit of fixed - bed urea production dropped to - 247 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production dropped to - 225 yuan/ton, while the water - coal - slurry production still had positive gross profit. The probability of large - scale production cuts by natural - gas - based enterprises is low due to long - term contracts with upstream suppliers [60]. - Historically, the urea price in the Shandong market was previously benchmarked against the fixed - bed production cost, and a rebound was likely when approaching the cost line. Since July 2024, the spot market price has gradually moved towards the water - coal - slurry cost, and currently, the cost support of water - coal - slurry is weak [65]. Demand Analysis - In terms of demand structure, agricultural demand is the most important, accounting for about 49%, and compound fertilizer demand accounts for about 25%, with the combined proportion close to 75% [74]. - It is estimated that the wheat sowing area in China in 2025 will be 355 million mu, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year. The corn sowing area will be about 44.269 million hectares, with a production of 298 million tons and a yield of 6,733 kg/ha, increasing by 1.08%, 2.76%, and 3.87% respectively compared to the previous year. The agricultural demand for urea is expected to increase steadily by about 5% in 2025 [78]. - The 2024 - 2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve project bidding document has adjusted the off - season storage rules. The proportion of urea in the reserve fertilizer has been reduced from not less than 30% to not less than 20%, and the single - target quantity in some provinces has been adjusted. The off - season storage enthusiasm is expected to increase this year, and the preparation time may be earlier and more dispersed than last year [80]. - Since July, the urea price has been oscillating downward, and the spread between compound fertilizer and urea has widened, leading to a recovery in factory profits. However, due to pre - emptive demand in the first half of the year and high finished - product inventories, factories are currently focusing on inventory digestion, and there has been no significant increase in the operating rate [85]. - As of September 26, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants was 35.27%, with an average operating rate of 40% this year. After the demand was pre - empted in the first half of the year, the operating rate has been insufficient. Although the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized in Q3, it has not brought new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined [90]. - Other industrial demands include urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, vehicle urea, and thermal power denitration. The consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year. However, the real - estate market has been under pressure in 2025, with a 12.9% year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment and declines in new construction, construction, and completion areas, which has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand [94]. - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 60.58%, and the average operating rate from January to September was 62%, flat year - on - year. Since August, the operating rate has been lower year - on - year. With the improvement of downstream demand and the resumption of previously - maintained factories, the demand for urea from melamine is expected to improve marginally [98]. - In 2025, the urea export policy has been relaxed, and domestic prices have been boosted multiple times since Q3. However, the export quota is far less than the surplus in supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. As the export window closes, the boost from exports is expected to fade [104]. Inventory - As of September 25, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1218,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 204,300 tons. The in - factory inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, about 20% higher year - on - year. Since April, the in - factory inventory has been oscillating upwards. With high production and insufficient domestic demand, inventory has continued to accumulate even with the gradual opening of exports. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase as there is no large - scale procurement demand for autumn fertilizers and the off - season storage is approaching [112]. - Since Q3, the number of days of pending orders for upstream urea factories has been higher year - on - year, mainly supported by export orders. As the export window closes, the shipment pressure of upstream factories may increase [112]. - India's urea inventory is currently at a relatively low level in recent years, and 6 - 9 months account for 70% of its annual demand. India has issued multiple tenders in Q3. The latest tender prices are lower than expected, and the domestic market has not been boosted, with the expected Chinese participation volume around 500,000 - 700,000 tons [114][116]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for urea from 2019 - 2025E, showing the production, export, various demand components, total domestic demand, and surplus volume in each year. In 2025E, the production is expected to be 69.76 million tons, exports 4 million tons, and the surplus is 130,000 tons [118].

Report Title - PVC 2025 Q4 Report: New Capacity Launch vs. Anti-Involution Game [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Cost side: Calcium carbide prices rose due to coal price increases and orderly power consumption, but with overall oversupply, the room for further price increases to drive up PVC prices is limited. Under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the shutdown of PVC plants. PVC operating rates have reached relatively high levels for the same period in history. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but the new capacity of 1.4 million tons/year put into operation in August - September will be fully released in Q4, and the 300,000 tons/year capacity of Jiahua Energy may be put into operation in Q4, so it is expected that autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity. The six - department joint plan for stable growth in the building materials industry has not yet had actual policies implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old plants to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect future market trends. From January to August 2025, the real estate market was still in adjustment, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was at the lowest level for the same period in history, and real estate improvement still requires time. In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still below the boom - bust line. PVC downstream operating rates have not significantly improved and are at a low level since March. Downstream products are cautious about restocking. Q4 is the peak construction season for real estate projects, and domestic consumption may increase seasonally, so PVC demand may improve slightly. The export growth rate of PVC floor coverings has slowed significantly. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. China Taiwan's Formosa Plastics' October quotation was stable. On August 14, India announced a new anti - dumping duty on imported PVC, with an increase of about $50/ton for the Chinese mainland. China's PVC export outlook is weakening in Q4. Currently, PVC social inventory is rising, with high pressure, and warehouse receipts are at a historical high, and the PVC basis is low, with supply still in surplus. It is expected that PVC will mainly seek a bottom through oscillations, and after continuous price declines, its valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. Of course, favorable real estate and anti - involution policies and improved external demand will stimulate PVC to rise periodically, especially in October when major policies may be introduced. For arbitrage, a 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended [6][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Price Trends - Indian PVC spot prices have risen slightly since April 2025, and China's PVC spot export profits have increased slightly. After the main contract shifted to the 2601 contract, the spot price in East China again became deeply discounted. Recently, the 01 basis has rebounded slightly but is still at a relatively low level for the same period in recent years. PVC2601's top 20 net positions have always been in a short position. PVC warehouse receipts decreased from the historical high to 0 at the beginning of 2025 but then continued to rise and reached a new historical high due to weak spot demand and the futures still at a premium to the spot [15][20][25]. PVC Upstream - Affected by orderly power consumption, the calcium carbide operating rate dropped to 64% after March, at a low level. With the increase in the cost of semi - coke, calcium carbide prices rebounded continuously from a low level in September, with a rise of 210 yuan/ton in the northwest region but still about 200 yuan/ton lower than the end of last year. Semi - coke prices also increased significantly in September. Calcium carbide profits were stable but still in a loss state, and the semi - coke loss margin was stable, with the operating load rising to a neutral level of 56% [33]. PVC Profits - The continuous decline in PVC spot prices has led to losses in both the calcium carbide and ethylene methods of PVC production. However, under the "alkali for chlorine" model, current cash flows have not led to the concentrated shutdown of PVC plants [40]. PVC Output and Operating Rates - In August 2025, PVC output increased by 3.43% month - on - month to 2.0733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.09%. From January to August 2025, cumulative PVC output was 16.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04%, at the highest level for the same period in recent years. The PVC maintenance loss in August decreased by 3.22% month - on - month to 577,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative PVC maintenance loss was 4.2349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level for the same period in recent years. In August 2025, the PVC operating rate was 78.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.13 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.12 percentage points, at a relatively high level for the same period in history. Supported by the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the PVC operating rate has remained at a relatively high level for the same period in history in the past three months. As of the week of September 26, affected by plants such as Heilongjiang Haohua and Gansu Jinchuan, the PVC operating rate increased by 2.01 percentage points month - on - month to 78.97%, rising to a relatively high level for the same period in recent years [48][51]. PVC New Capacity - Although the new capacity of the calcium carbide method has slowed down due to poor profits and environmental protection policies, there were still multiple sets of new ethylene - based PVC capacity put into operation in 2025, especially in August - September, and most are located in East China. Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons/year capacity was put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons/year capacity is expected to achieve stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons/year capacity was put into operation in early September and is currently close to full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons/year capacity is in the trial - run stage in September. Attention should also be paid to the commissioning progress of Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 tons/year capacity [54]. PVC Maintenance - In addition to long - term shutdowns of plants such as Taishan Yanhua and Shandong Dongyue, a few newly added plants in 2025, such as Suzhou Huasu and Salt Lake Magnesium, are still under maintenance. From October to November, PVC will enter the autumn maintenance season, but it is expected that with the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, autumn maintenance will not offset the increase from new capacity [56]. PVC Imports and Exports - In August 2025, PVC imports were at the lowest level for the same period in history, and exports decreased month - on - month due to concerns about Indian anti - dumping duties but still remained at a relatively high level. The proportion of China's exports to India dropped to 39.22%. The net export volume of PVC in August decreased to 271,700 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 11.24% and a year - on - year increase of 49.86%, still at the highest level for the same period in recent years. In September, there was still a small profit in PVC exports, but Indian anti - dumping duties and the BIS certification policy will suppress China's PVC exports in Q4. China's PVC production capacity accounts for 45% of the global total. While the domestic real estate market is in adjustment, developing countries such as India and Vietnam have strong demand for PVC but insufficient domestic production capacity. Although India's anti - dumping policy is unfavorable for China's exports to India, China can increase exports to other countries like Vietnam, but this will take time, and it is expected that this shift cannot fully fill the Indian gap in Q4 [63][73]. Real Estate Data - From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in national real estate development investment widened by 0.9 percentage points to - 12.9% compared to January - July. The year - on - year decline in national land purchase fees widened by 1.3 percentage points to - 10.2%. The year - on - year decline in national housing construction area widened by 0.1 percentage point to - 9.3%. From January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.304 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the sales volume was 5.5015 trillion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. As of the week of September 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded by 9.49% week - on - week but was at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August, the housing completion area was 27.694 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [79][84][88]. PVC Floor Covering Exports - In August, the export volume of PVC floor coverings decreased by 1.50% month - on - month to 347,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.49%, at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC floor coverings was 2.795 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. Affected by the global trade war, especially the Sino - US trade war, China's PVC floor covering exports have performed poorly [92]. PVC Downstream Operating Rates - Despite the government's introduction of multiple real estate stimulus policies, the performance of the PVC downstream in 2025 has been cautious, and the recovery of operating rates has been slow. As of the week of September 26, the PVC downstream operating rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points month - on - month to 47.76%, a year - on - year increase of 2.99 percentage points. The policies have not yet been transmitted to the PVC demand side, and the demand for downstream PVC pipes and profiles is at a low level for the same period in history [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views - Supply side: High asphalt losses, raw material shortages, and limited improvement in terminal demand are expected to keep the asphalt operating rate low in Q4. With the widening discount of diluted asphalt, attention should be paid to the potential increase in Venezuelan heavy oil flowing to China. Import growth in Q4 2025 is expected to be very limited. [4][78] - Demand side: Asphalt demand is mainly concentrated in road infrastructure and real estate, with road infrastructure accounting for 70%. As 2025 is the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", many road construction projects are in the delivery phase, which will drive asphalt demand. However, due to financial constraints on local governments and the lack of improvement in the real estate market, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly in Q4 and will still lag behind previous years. Attention should be paid to the improvement of the capital side and the pace of forming asphalt physical volume. Low asphalt inventory strongly supports asphalt futures prices. [4][78] - Overall trend: With weak supply and demand, asphalt is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations in Q4, with its overall center of gravity moving down. The high asphalt basis suggests that northern spot traders can short the basis. Also, the 01 - 06 spread of asphalt is expected to weaken seasonally, so it is recommended to short the 01 - 06 spread. [4][78] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asphalt Price走势 - The asphalt/crude oil ratio increased in the first three quarters of 2025. Due to geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Venezuela, the ratio is expected to remain high in Q4. [9] - After the implementation of the diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy, refineries suffered heavy losses in processing diluted asphalt, leading to a significant reduction in imports and low port inventories. [11] - In the South China region, the increase in refinery operating rates has given asphalt spot prices a significant advantage. [20] - Since 2025, the asphalt basis first declined and then rebounded to a relatively high level. Recently, it has dropped to a slightly high - neutral position. [29] 2. Asphalt Production and Consumption - In August 2025, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.74%, and the Shandong region's operating rate decreased by 6.61 percentage points to 33.74%, both at relatively low levels. [34] - In August 2025, asphalt production increased by 0.75% month - on - month to 2.5267 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.63%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production increased by 9.28% year - on - year to 18.8156 million tons. [39] - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt increased by 2.79% month - on - month to 2.833 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 21.21%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption increased by 4.98% year - on - year to 18.0629 million tons. As of September 26, the national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 0.32% week - on - week to 312,600 tons. [44] - As of September 26, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 5.7 percentage points to 40.1%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the operating rate was mostly low, and the profit of Shandong asphalt spot was significantly in the red, with a loss of over 600 yuan/ton. [47] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative net import of asphalt was 1.9591 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.73%. In August, the net import reached the lowest level in recent years. [49] 3. Asphalt Downstream - Asphalt downstream demand is mainly in road construction and maintenance (about 70%), building waterproofing (about 20%), and ship fuel and coking (about 10%). [52] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 3.3%, continuing to decline. The cumulative sales volume of pavers was 1,120 units, a year - on - year increase of 36.58%. [57] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset infrastructure investment was 5.42%. The growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity dropped from 3.2% in January - July 2025 to 2.0% in January - August 2025. [59] - From January to July 2025, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. The issuance progress of new local bonds is higher than that in 2024 but lower than that in 2023. It is expected that the special bonds will increase significantly from September to October. [62] - In Q3, the downstream main - road modified asphalt strengthened seasonally but not as much as in previous years. As of September 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries increased, but they were still at relatively low levels compared to previous years. [66] 4. Asphalt Inventory - As of September 26, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 14.7%, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. [71] - As of September 26, the asphalt social inventory decreased by 3.50% week - on - week to 1.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.14%. The factory inventory increased by 1.16% week - on - week to 698,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.74%. The overall inventory increased slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to previous years. [76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Aspect**: In Q3, the market expected a 50bp Fed rate cut, and the US dollar index declined. After the rate cut, the copper price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped. The 232 - investigation copper tariff took effect on August 1st, ending the US copper siphon effect. In China, anti - involution measures boosted the commodity market, and a series of policies accelerated the capacity clearance in the upstream industrial sector [6]. - **Supply Aspect**: Since February 2025, the copper smelter processing fees TC/RC have been negative and weakening. According to Mysteel, the planned production in September was 1.1476 million tons, and the expected production in October is 1.1235 million tons, a new low since April. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October, and the shortage of scrap copper supply will also lead to significant production cuts [6]. - **Demand Aspect**: Entering the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream copper product production has improved, and copper demand remains resilient. However, due to high prices, the downstream's willingness to purchase has weakened, and the Shanghai copper inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the inventory will first decrease and then increase in Q4 [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: The Fed rate cut and China's incremental policies boost the copper market sentiment. The supply is tight, while the demand from power grids, new energy, etc. provides rigid support. It is expected that the copper price will rise in fluctuations in Q4, but attention should be paid to the resumption of production of mines and the Fed rate - cut process [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Economic Environment - **Domestic Economic Data**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from July. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points. The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [12][13]. - **Stable Growth Work Plan**: From 2025 - 2026, the non - ferrous metal industry aims for an average annual growth of about 5% in added value and 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals. It involves resource exploration, product innovation, project construction, consumption upgrade, and stabilizing foreign trade [16]. - **Fed Rate Cut**: On September 18th, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut in 2025. It is expected that there may be another 50bp of rate cuts this year [20]. Tariff Policy - The US imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and derivatives with high copper content starting from August 1st, which affected the global copper market and inventory distribution [22]. Supply - **Global Supply**: From January - July 2025, global copper mine production increased by about 3.4%, and refined copper production increased by about 3.9%. There was an apparent surplus of about 101,000 tons in the first half of 2025 [27]. - **Overseas Supply**: In July, Peru's copper production decreased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's increased by 0.3%. The mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine and the tunnel collapse at Chile's Codelco will reduce copper production [32]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In August 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.7593 million tons. Although the cumulative imports from January - August increased by 8.07% year - on - year, overseas accidents and declining ore grades keep the supply tight [36]. - **Copper Smelting**: Since February 2025, TC/RC has been negative. The planned production in September and expected production in October decreased. 10 smelters will be affected by maintenance in September and October [42]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month. It is expected that production will continue to decrease in October due to maintenance and scrap copper shortages [51]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In August 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased by 5.64% month - on - month. Affected by the US copper tariff, imports from the US decreased significantly, and the supply is expected to remain tight in Q4 [53]. Demand - **Copper Products**: In September 2025, the expected output of refined copper rods was 1.0389 million tons, a 4.08% month - on - month increase. The demand for copper foil is expected to increase during the peak season, and the demand for copper tubes from home appliances will also be boosted [56]. - **Power Grid and Power Source Investment**: From January - August 2025, the power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 14%. The power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with a 0.5% growth. It is expected that the national power grid investment will reach 660 - 670 billion yuan in 2025, with a 10% growth [62]. - **Real Estate**: From January - August, the construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate all decreased year - on - year. The government's policies are expected to stabilize the market, but currently, it still drags down copper demand [68]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.171 million, a 18.3% year - on - year increase. From January - August, the cumulative sales were 8.088 million, a 30.1% increase. The production increase in Q4 will drive copper demand [72]. - **Home Appliances**: Affected by the US tariff and pre - placed policies, the home appliance demand may lack momentum in the second half of the year, but there will still be a month - on - month increase in the peak season [78]. Inventory - **Global Exchanges**: Before July, due to the US copper tariff, the copper inventory in the US increased while that in other regions decreased. After the tariff took effect, the COMEX - LME premium returned to normal, and the LME inventory rebounded [85]. - **Domestic Exchanges**: The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the tariff took effect. Recently, due to high prices, the inventory has accumulated but decreased slightly due to holiday replenishment. It is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4. The bonded - area inventory has been fluctuating slightly [90]. - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of September 26th, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 131,800 tons, similar to the SHFE inventory trend, and is expected to first decrease and then increase in Q4 [94].

Report Title - The Q4 2025 Quarterly Report on Polyolefins by Guantong Futures: New Capacity Commissioning Puts Pressure, Polyolefins to Oscillate Weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are gradually exiting the maintenance season, with the operating rate expected to rise in October. Import profit is average, and import volume is expected to remain low. In Q4, new PE and PP capacities of 2.7 million tons/year and 950,000 tons/year will be commissioned respectively. Multiple units are scheduled to start operation by the end of the year, having little impact on the 01 contract. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new capacities. The demand for polyolefins in Q4 will improve quarter-on-quarter but perform averagely compared to the same period in previous years. New orders are mediocre. Amid the global trade war, enterprises' early rush for exports and the pre - consumption of national subsidies may overdraw the Q4 demand. Although downstream enterprises have stocked up, they remain cautious. Crude oil prices will still face pressure in Q4, and the cost support for polyolefin prices is expected to be limited. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the polyolefin industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect subsequent market conditions and are worthy of close attention. It is expected that polyolefins will oscillate weakly in Q4 under the scenario of both supply and demand increasing [5][110]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Futures Price Trends - The report presents the daily K - lines of the plastic weighted contract and the PP weighted contract [8][10] Plastic Spot Prices - It shows the spot prices of plastics in North China and the spot price (CFR, mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene in the Far East [14][16] Plastic Basis Trends - Since 2025, the plastic basis has been continuously weakening from a historical high, reaching a low of - 136 yuan/ton in late July. Recently, with stable spot prices and continuous decline in futures prices, the plastic basis has rebounded to around 200 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level. The PP basis has declined slightly recently but remains at a neutral position [23][29] Plastic Production - In August 2025, the PE maintenance volume decreased by 9.63% month - on - month to 457,900 tons, an increase of 25.42% year - on - year. The cumulative PE maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 0.86% year - on - year to 3.2809 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PE output increased by 2.52% month - on - month to 2.7702 million tons, an increase of 15.38% year - on - year. The cumulative PE output from January to August 2025 increased by 17.24% year - on - year to 21.6233 million tons, also at the highest level in the same period in history [34] Plastic Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PE operating rate increased by 2.37 percentage points month - on - month to 81.3%, a decrease of 1.17 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level among the same period in previous years. Recently, the operating rate has risen to around 85% and is currently at a neutral level. With the planned restart of some maintenance units at the end of September, the plastic operating rate is expected to rise slightly [39] Plastic Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of North Huajin HDPE and Shenyang Chemical's full - density units, new units in 2025 like those of Lianyungang Petrochemical HDPE and Zhonghan Petrochemical LLDPE are still under maintenance [41] Plastic Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - According to Longzhong Information, there are not many PE units planned for maintenance in Q4 2025, involving a total capacity of 3.18 million tons. Some units will be under maintenance for more than 30 days [44] Plastic New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, multiple new capacities were commissioned, with a total of 3.43 million tons/year. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 2.7 million tons. Some new capacities are expected to be commissioned in October, while others at the end of the year, having little impact on the 2025 output. There is also a possibility of delay in the commissioning of new capacities in Q4 [48] PP Production - In August 2025, the PP maintenance volume decreased by 8.76% month - on - month to 657,900 tons, an increase of 8.89% year - on - year. The cumulative PP maintenance volume from January to August 2025 increased by 5.13% year - on - year to 5.0087 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history. In August 2025, the PP output increased by 2.32% month - on - month to 3.5045 million tons, an increase of 18.00% year - on - year. The cumulative PP output from January to August 2025 increased by 16.92% year - on - year to 26.3476 million tons, at the highest level in the same period in history [52] PP Operating Rate - In August 2025, the PP operating rate increased by 1.65 percentage points month - on - month to 78.80%, an increase of 3.55 percentage points year - on - year, at a relatively low - neutral level. Recently, the operating rate has dropped to around 79% due to new maintenance units, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has risen to around 30%. It is expected that the operating rate will recover in early October [57] PP Under - Maintenance Units - Besides long - term shut - down units such as those of Dalian Petrochemical and Wuhan Petrochemical, new units in 2025 like those of Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical are still under maintenance [60] PP Planned Maintenance Units in Q4 - In Q4, multiple PP units are planned for maintenance, and the maintenance is expected to be concentrated from October to November [63] PP New Capacities - In the first three quarters of 2025, 4.155 million tons of new PP capacities were commissioned. In Q4 2025, the expected new capacity is 950,000 tons, with some units planned to be commissioned in December [66] Plastic Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PE imports were 950,200 tons, a decrease of 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.9816 million tons, a decrease of 0.84% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PE exports were 116,000 tons, an increase of 61.83% year - on - year and 14.12% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PE exports from January to August 2025 were 729,700 tons, an increase of 25.91% year - on - year. In August 2025, the net PE imports were 834,200 tons, a decrease of 27.36% year - on - year. The cumulative net PE imports from January to August 2025 were 8.2518 million tons, a decrease of 2.66% year - on - year. The LLDPE import profit is currently negative, and with the release of domestic capacities, the net PE imports are expected to remain low [72] PP Imports and Exports - In August 2025, China's PP imports were 247,000 tons, a decrease of 21.39% year - on - year and 12.54% month - on - month, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The cumulative PP imports from January to August 2025 were 2.1676 million tons, a decrease of 9.77% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's PP exports were 275,900 tons, an increase of 29.83% year - on - year and 4.76% month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period in previous years. The cumulative PP exports from January to August 2025 were 2.1035 million tons, an increase of 29.03% year - on - year. The PP drawstring import window is closed, and the import volume is expected to be low [78] Polyolefin Downstream - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products was 52.1815 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, but the cumulative year - on - year growth rate decreased slightly. In August, the year - on - year growth rate was - 4.1%. The cumulative export value of plastic products from January to August 2025 was 500.396 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, with a slightly rising growth rate but still negative. In August, the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 0.8%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the domestic total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, slower than the 3.7% from January to July. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods has been slowing down since May, indicating increasing pressure on domestic demand. As of the week of September 26, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 1.21 percentage points week - on - week to 44.13%, and the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week to 51.85%, both at relatively low levels in the same period in previous years [83][89][94] Polyolefin Inventories - After the Spring Festival in 2025, petrochemical inventories were at an average level compared to the same period in recent years. As of September 26, petrochemical inventories decreased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 585,000 tons, 105,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Recently, polyolefin traders' inventories have decreased but are still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [102] Polyolefin Profits - In September, the coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased slightly due to a slight decline in PE prices. In September, the profits of all PP production processes declined to varying degrees. The coal - based PP production process remained profitable, while the other processes were still in the red, with the MTO process having a relatively large loss [108]

Report Summary - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. - The core view of the report is to present the latest market information and trends, including power industry statistics, monetary policy, international news, and the performance of various asset classes. Hot News - As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, and wind power installed capacity was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 2,105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared with the same period last year [2]. - The third - quarter (110th) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on September 23. The meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and promoting economic growth and price stability [2]. - In the United States, consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 0.4% for the second consecutive month in August. The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and remained stubbornly at 2.9% year - on - year, indicating economic robustness this quarter [2]. - On September 28 (local time), Hamas stated that it had not received new proposals from mediators, and the negotiations with Israel had been at a stalemate since the assassination of its leader in Doha. Hamas said it was ready to study any proposals [3]. Market Performance Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.65%, a monthly decline of 0.77%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.59%, a monthly increase of 2.84%, and an annual increase of 12.96%. The Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.35%, a monthly increase of 4.19%, and an annual increase of 30.25% [7]. Commodity Market - In terms of commodity plate price increases, precious metals increased by 32.15%, non - metallic building materials by 2.73%, and energy by 2.96% [4][5]. - Key commodities to focus on include Shanghai silver, coke, pulp, fuel oil, and Shanghai gold [6]. Other Asset Classes - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly decline of 0.12%, and an annual decline of 1.14%. London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.28%, a monthly increase of 9.05%, and an annual increase of 43.24% [8].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai silver rose 3.90%, fuel oil nearly 2%, SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) over 1%. On the downside, coking coal and glass dropped over 3%, coke and pulp over 2%, and soda ash, caustic soda, rebar, and rubber over 1% [3]. - International precious metals generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.50% to $3789.8 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.27%; COMEX silver futures rose 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 7.95% [4]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly. WTI crude futures rose 0.32% to $65.19 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.47%; Brent crude futures rose 0.35% to $68.82 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.21% [5]. - London base metals all declined. LME zinc fell 1.37% to $2886.50 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.09%; LME nickel fell 0.81% to $15155 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.76%; LME lead fell 0.69% to $2001.50 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.25%; LME copper fell 0.53% to $10205 per ton, with a weekly gain of 2.16%; LME aluminum fell 0.36% to $2649 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.84%; LME tin fell 0.07% to $34415.00 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.71% [5]. - International agricultural futures showed mixed trends. US soybeans rose 0.17%, US corn fell 1.00%, US soybean oil fell 0.24%, US soybean meal rose 0.62%, and US wheat fell 1.52% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The National Energy Administration released power industry statistics for January - August. As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%; wind power installed capacity was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the same period last year [9]. - The third-quarter (110th) meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23. The meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and enhancing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic stability and reasonable prices [9]. - Shanghai Shipping Exchange data showed that as of September 26, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1114.52 points, a decrease of 83.69 points from the previous period; the China Export Containerized Freight Index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decrease from the previous period [9]. - The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing "involutionary" vicious competition [10]. - US consumer spending in August exceeded expectations, and underlying inflation remained stable. Real consumer spending increased 0.4% for the second consecutive month. The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and remained at 2.9% year - on - year, indicating economic robustness [10]. - On September 28, the UN Secretary - General's Office confirmed that six Iran - related sanctions resolutions of the UN Security Council had been re - enacted since 8 p.m. EDT on September 27 [11]. - Hamas stated that it had not received new proposals from mediators, and negotiations with Israel had been at a standstill since an assassination attempt on its leader in Doha [11]. - If the US federal government shuts down, the September employment report scheduled for release this Friday may be delayed [11]. - Trump said he was okay with a government shutdown if necessary. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [11]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin said upcoming data would determine further Fed rate cuts; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supported the Fed holding only Treasuries and ignoring one - time tariff impacts [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 25, East China port methanol inventory was 82.40 tons, a decrease of 2.78 tons from the previous week [14]. - As of September 25, PVC social inventory increased 1.84% month - on - month to 97.13 tons, a 16.23% year - on - year increase. East China inventory was 91.33 tons, a 2.18% month - on - month and 14.86% year - on - year increase [16]. - Seven government departments issued a work plan for the petrochemical industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of over 5% and addressing issues like fertilizer supply and capacity control [16]. - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower Middle East oil prices [16]. - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at this week's meeting [17]. Metal Futures - Global alumina production in August 2025 was 1.3301 million tons, compared to 1.2555 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 1.3182 million tons in the previous month. China's estimated production was 0.798 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [19]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper inventory by 7035 tons, aluminum by 3108 tons, lead by 8123 tons, nickel by 826 tons, and tin by 429 tons last week, while zinc inventory increased by 1229 tons [20]. - As of September 25, the national lead ingot social inventory was 42,200 tons, a decrease of 8900 tons from September 22 [20]. - The Indonesian mining minister said that mining companies meeting land - restoration fund requirements could have their mining licenses restored from "suspended" to "normal" [22]. - Eight government departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of about 5%, a 1.5% average annual increase in ten non - ferrous metal production, and other goals [22]. Black - series Futures - Mysteel data showed that the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 140.0028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.992 million tons [24]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 39.40 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a 13,400 - ton increase from the previous week [24]. - The China Coking Industry Association refuted false information about "forced production cuts" and "joint price increases" [24]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data showed that the total urban inventory this week was 9.0242 million tons, a 3.36% (313,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week. Construction steel inventory was 4.9196 million tons, a 5.10% (264,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week [25]. Agricultural Futures - The US agreed to consider tariff exemptions for Malaysian cocoa and palm oil products [28]. - Analyst Thomas Mielke predicted that global palm oil and soybean oil prices would rise by $100 - $150 per ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightness [28]. - SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased 4.14% month - on - month [28]. - SGS data showed that the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease from the same period last month [29]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the premium for alternative delivery products of jujube futures for contracts starting from 2612 [29]. - As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased 3.08% week - on - week to 277,200 tons [29]. - As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [29]. 3. Financial Market Finance - With the A - share market stabilizing, the private placement market has become active. As of September 28, 218 funds from 28 fund companies participated in private placement projects, with a cost of 5.864 billion yuan, exceeding last year's total, and over 90% of placements had floating profits [32]. - Bank wealth management subsidiaries have been more active in the equity market, conducting over 2100 research on A - share listed companies this year, focusing on the GEM and STAR Market. The issuance scale of equity and hybrid wealth management products has reached 72.7 billion yuan, exceeding last year's level [32]. - Many securities analysts expect the A - share market to gradually rise in the fourth quarter, with a focus on the technology growth sector [32]. - 1311 A - share listed companies have issued equity incentive plans this year, compared to 381 in 2024 [33]. - Hefei Youai Zhihé Robot Technology Co., Ltd. applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If successful, it may become the "first mobile operation robot stock" [33]. - JD Industry submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again, planning to issue about 253.3 million common shares [35]. - Micro - billion Intelligent Manufacturing, a provider of industrial embodied intelligent robots, applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35]. - Hitcard, a four - year - old card company, is advancing its listing process after obtaining multiple rounds of financing [35]. Industry - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for value - added growth, resource development, and other goals [36]. - From January to August, national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with railway investment at 504.1 billion yuan, highway at 1.5412 trillion yuan, waterway at 143.3 billion yuan, and civil aviation at 70.7 billion yuan [36]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises [36]. - As of September 27, about 200 Chinese cities and counties have issued over 470 policies to stabilize the real estate market this year, and more policies are expected in the fourth quarter [38]. - Guangzhou expanded the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals for housing purchases and elevator renovation [38]. - Changchun adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy, with a minimum down payment of 15% for certain home purchases [38]. - Jiangsu Province suspended its automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28 [38]. - Shanghai Future Industry Fund completed a capital increase from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan and has invested in cutting - edge fields [39]. - The CSRC announced the 2025 classification evaluation results of securities companies, with 53 A - class companies, 43 B - class companies, and 11 C - class companies [39]. - The cement industry has increased production cuts due to the real estate market. Under the influence of a new work plan, the industry may reduce inefficient clinker production capacity by about 10% this year, and the cement price is expected to rebound [39]. - The predicted box office for the first day of the 2025 National Day holiday is 343 million yuan, with "The Volunteers: To the War," "Assassin in Red 2," and "Life of a Loser" leading the list [41]. Overseas - Trump will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday due to the risk of a US government shutdown. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [42]. - Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising, which will impact the Fed's monetary policy [42]. - Due to the US tariff policy adjustments, the global trade friction index reached 110 in July, with the amount of trade friction measures increasing year - on - year and month - on - month [42]. - Over 3000 food products in Japan will see price increases in October [43]. Commodity - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting [44]. Bond - On September 28, the bond market was stable, with small fluctuations in yields. The central bank conducted 181.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 181.7 billion yuan [46]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors reminded underwriting institutions to comply with regulations on debt - financing tool issuance [46]. - As of September 28, Henan Province has issued 270.635 billion yuan of special bonds this year, mainly for infrastructure and other fields [46]. Foreign Exchange - South Korea and the US reached an agreement on the exchange rate issue, and the US recognized that South Korea did not manipulate the exchange rate, clearing the way for South Korea to be removed from the US Treasury's exchange - rate manipulation monitoring list [47]. 4. Upcoming Events Economic Indicators - Japan's July coincident/leading indicators final value will be released at 13:00 [49]. - Spain's September CPI preliminary value will be released at 15:00 [49]. - The UK's August central bank mortgage approvals will be released at 16:30 [49]. - The Eurozone's September industrial/economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index final value will be released at 17:00 [49]. - The US's August pending home sales index will be released at 22:00 [49]. - The US's September Dallas Fed business activity index will be released at 22:30 [49]. Events - 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature at 09:20 [51]. - Bank of Japan board member Noguchi Akira will give a speech at 13:30 [51]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on cultural and tourism development achievements at 14:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Madis Müller will speak on the digital euro at 14:30 [51]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a September press conference at 15:00 [51]. - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference on China - Nordic economic and trade cooperation at 15:00 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will speak on the digital euro at 15:10 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno will give a speech at 16:30 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and the German Banking Association will exchange views on monetary policy at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel will give a speech at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujčić will give a speech at 19:35 [51]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a policy