Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the support for the real economy remains stable. Fiscal and industrial policies are more proactive, forming a stronger synergy with monetary policy to promote the continuous recovery of the economy [2]. - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented from October 9, 2025. The futures exchange will implement key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - Due to the complex international situation and large market fluctuations, the SHFE has reminded relevant units to take measures to prompt investors to prevent risks and invest rationally [2]. - The nuclear talks between Iran and the US that were originally scheduled to be held in Oman have been indefinitely postponed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - **Financial Data**: In May, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance was 7.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 balance was 2.3%. In the first five months, the incremental social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan [2]. - **Futures Regulations**: The CSRC announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)" to be implemented on October 9, 2025, with key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - **Market Risk Warning**: The SHFE reminded relevant units to prompt investors to prevent risks due to complex international situations and large market fluctuations [2]. - **Steel Mill Data**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.05 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year; the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons from last week [3]. - **International Event**: Iran's nuclear talks with the US have been indefinitely postponed after Israel's air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military bases [3]. Key Focus - **Focus Commodities**: Urea, crude oil, rebar, lithium carbonate, and PVC [4]. Night - Session Performance - **Sector Performance**: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.51%, precious metals by 30.86%, energy by 2.86%, chemicals by 12.93%, grains by 1.40%, agricultural and sideline products by 2.56%, oilseeds and oils by 11.49%, soft commodities by 2.70%, non - ferrous metals by 19.66%, and coal - coking - steel - ore by 13.03% [4][5]. Major Asset Performance | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.75 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.55 | - 0.08 | - 0.31 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.72 | 0.62 | - 1.80 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.03 | 1.22 | 0.25 | | | S&P 500 | - 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.62 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.59 | 2.59 | 19.11 | | | German DAX | - 1.07 | - 2.01 | 18.12 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.89 | - 0.34 | - 5.16 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.39 | 0.89 | 8.29 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.09 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.04 | 0.15 | - 0.34 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | 0.07 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 4.25 | 2.04 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 8.39 | 21.44 | 2.54 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.40 | 4.40 | 30.84 | | | LME Copper | - 0.56 | 1.58 | 9.86 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.40 | 2.65 | 18.08 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.29 | - 1.30 | - 9.53 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 15.54 | 12.12 | 20.00 | [7]

冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 冠通期货研究咨询部 王静 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜价格先抑后扬，价格重心下移，宏观方面，美国5月份CPI、PPI增长均不及市场预期，通胀压力放缓，美联储降息预期再度升高， | | | | | 周五以色列对伊朗核设施和军事设施袭击，导致全球油价飙升可能导致全球通胀水平上升，可能会促使美联储降息预期下降，美国就业数 | | | | | 据并不乐观，叠加目前中美贸易谈判尚无明确信号，市场情绪偏向于谨慎。基本面方面，供给端精铜矿港口库存本期有增加，但国内冶炼 | | | | | 费依然没有拐点的信号，截至2025年6月13日，现货粗炼费为-43.19美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.40美分/磅。虽目前冶炼厂暂无减产计划 | | | | | 但依然面临减量风险，支撑铜价底部空间。但目前为止，铜产量依然高位运行，尚未受到偏紧预期的影响，今年以来精炼铜产量一直处于 | | | | 沪铜 | 历年同期高位值状态。需求端，截至2025年4月，电解铜表观消费128.27万吨，相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨，涨跌 ...

资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/16 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。SC 原油涨超 6%，棕榈油涨超 3%，豆油涨超 2%， 菜油、焦煤、燃料油、液化石油气（LPG）涨超 1%；跌幅方面，烧碱、20 号胶、 乙二醇（EG）跌超 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.48%报 3452.60 美元/盎司， 周涨 3.17%。COMEX 白银期货涨 0.21%报 36.37 美元/盎司，周涨 0.64%。 3. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约涨 7.55%报 73.18 美元/桶，周涨 13.32%； 布油主力合约涨 7.5%报 74.56 美元/桶，周涨 12.17%。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.56%报 9647.5 美元/吨，周跌 0.47%；LME 期锌跌 0.61%报 2626.5 美元/吨，周跌 1.48%。 5. 国际农产品多数上涨，美大豆涨 2.52%，美玉米涨 1.43%，美豆油涨 6.30%， 美豆粕跌 1.09%，美小麦涨 3 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。以色列开始袭击伊朗， 中东地缘风险急剧升温，有报道称伊朗高级议员表示与美国的会谈将不会举行。 美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原 ...

【冠通研究】 跌至历史低点，盘面小幅反弹 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内高开高走小幅翻红，现货报价跌势显著，连续下跌之 下，工厂出货压力增加，关注今日翻红后周末成交情况。基本面来看，日产高 位带来的压力尚无改善预期，供应端减弱拐点未至，日产维持在 20 万吨左右， 上游工厂依然以临时检修减产为主，本周目前有三家企业有检修计划。需求 端，东北玉米追肥即将展开，华北地区农需仍在等待启动；复合肥厂内成品库 存去化受阻，开工负荷连续下调，企业以销定产，对尿素支撑边际继续减弱， 其他工业需求也多以羸弱为主，供需宽松格局明显。库存端出口集港预计在六 月下旬之后进行，出口企业主动累库，且新单成交不畅，供应不减压力下，企 业库存连连增加。整体来说，今日尿素小幅反弹主要系低位盘整，基本面尚无 改善，依然处于宽松格局，盘面向上动能不足，具体高度需关注出口情况及农 需拿货。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1655 元/吨高开高走，最终收于 1661 元/吨， 收成一根阳线，涨跌 0.42%，持仓量 284793 手（-22286 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头- ...

【策略分析】 沪铜日内承压运行。美国 5 月 PPI 年率录得 2.6%，市场预期为 2.6%；美国 5 月 PPI 月率录得 0.1%，市场预期为 0.2%。结合周三公布的美国 CPI 数据显示，关税政策给美国 带来的影响暂未造成大幅通胀，市场增加了美联储降息的预期。但中东地缘政治局势紧张， 美元指数昨日下跌后今日回弹。供给端，精铜矿港口库存本期累库，上游铜矿虽整体偏紧， 但下游承接力度乏力。截至 2025 年 6 月 9 日，现货粗炼费为-42.9 美元/千吨，现货精炼 费为-4.28 美分/磅，铜精矿目前供应紧缺，叠加冶炼厂亏损加深，冶炼厂面临减量减产 风险。中国 5 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量锐减至 42.7 万吨，环比下降 2.5%，进口量减少而 国内库存去化停滞，市场需求端环比减弱。进入需求淡季阶段，表观消费量减少，5 月预 计继续处于下降周期内。下游铜箔、铜管等开工率均环比出现下降，下游终端虽有韧性, 但对铜向上传导力度不足，需求依然是制约铜价上涨的重要原因。整体来说，最新的美国 经济数据显示美国通胀不及预期，后续降息概率加大后美元或转弱，将支撑铜价格，但需 求疲软下，上方压力也制约铜价，预计铜盘面 ...

隔夜夜盘市场走势 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/13 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.88%报 3406.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.41%报 36.41 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.04%，报 68.86 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约涨 0.69%，报 70.25 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期铜涨 0.44%报 9690.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铅涨 0.23%报 1992.00 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。燃料油涨超 1%，菜油涨近 1%；跌幅方面，纯 碱跌超 2%，丁二烯橡胶、玻璃、烧碱、焦炭、焦煤、纸浆跌超 1%。 5. 美国农产品期货涨跌不一，CBOT 玉米期货涨 0.34%，报 4.385 美元/蒲式耳。 CBOT 小麦期货跌 1.4%，报 5.2675 美元/蒲式耳。CBOT 大豆期货跌 0.71%，报 10.43 美元/蒲式耳。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Expect crude oil supply and demand to improve in the near term, with prices oscillating strongly due to rising geopolitical risks, but the upward price space is limited due to OPEC+ long - term production increase and trade - war - dragged demand, so it's advisable to operate cautiously and wait and see [3] - Forecast that the decline of coking coal price may slow down as supply pressure eases slightly, but the current supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains a negative factor for the market [5] - Predict that copper prices have support below due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation, but weak demand restricts price increase, so there's no need to be overly bearish on the market [10] - Anticipate that the lithium carbonate market will mainly decline under the loose fundamentals, although the previous price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment [11][12] - Project that urea will continue to decline, but there may be a limited - height rebound at the low level, depending on export and agricultural demand [13] - Forecast that asphalt will oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it's recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [14][15] - Expect PP to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure but improved commodity sentiment [16] - Predict that plastic will oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure but improved overall commodity sentiment [17][18] - Anticipate that PVC will oscillate at a low level, with high supply and weak demand, but improved commodity sentiment [19] - Forecast that soybean oil futures will oscillate weakly in the short term due to supply uncertainty and inventory build - up [20][21] - Predict that domestic soybean meal will run strongly, and it's advisable to go long on far - month soybean meal at low prices [22] - Anticipate that rebar prices will be suppressed in the short term due to sufficient supply, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction [23][24] - Forecast that hot - rolled coils will face downward pressure in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may improve as production cuts and policies take effect [25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July; U.S. drilling number drops, and production is expected to decline; Canadian wildfires halt 350,000 barrels per day of heavy - oil production; EIA raises 2025 global oil inventory increase forecast from 0.4 to 0.8 barrels per day [3] - Demand: U.S. economic data is better than expected, and the market risk preference rebounds, but the pessimistic expectation of the trade - war's impact on the economy persists, and refined - oil demand and inventory data are poor [3] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the near term, but the upward space is limited [3] Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal customs clearance is normal, but domestic mine and coal - washing plant output has declined for weeks, and the total upstream inventory is at a high level [5] - Demand: Coking enterprises have low profits and weak procurement willingness, and the coke inventory is high; steel mill production may decline slightly, and terminal demand is weak [5] - Outlook: The decline may slow down, and it's in a narrow - range oscillation [5] Copper - Supply: Concentrated copper ore port inventory has decreased significantly, and the supply of copper raw materials is tight; smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses [10] - Demand: China's copper imports have decreased, and domestic demand has weakened; downstream copper product industries' operating rates have declined [10] - Outlook: Copper prices have support below due to the Fed rate - cut expectation, but weak demand restricts the increase [10] Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Supply recovery is accelerating, with increased mica production, resumed factory production, and stable overseas output, and inventory is at a high level [11] - Demand: The terminal market is enthusiastic, but the direct downstream battery sector purchases as needed, and the supporting effect is limited [11] - Outlook: The market will mainly decline under loose fundamentals [11][12] Urea - Supply: Daily production remains high, restricting the upward space of the market [13] - Demand: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and downstream inventory removal has stagnated; the melamine operating rate is declining [13] - Outlook: It will continue to decline but may rebound at a low level, and the rebound height depends on exports and agricultural demand [13] Asphalt - Supply: Last week's operating rate increased by 3.6 percentage points to 31.3%, and the June refinery production plan is to increase [14] - Demand: Downstream road - asphalt operating rate decreased to 25.6%, and overall demand is affected by funds [14] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it's recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15] PP - Supply: Downstream operating rate decreased to 50.01%, and enterprise operating rate decreased to 84%; new production capacity is put into operation, and inventory pressure is high [16] - Demand: U.S. tariffs and propane import restrictions affect downstream exports and raw - material supply; downstream recovery is slow [16] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [16] Plastic - Supply: Operating rate increased to 86.5%, and new production capacity has been put into operation; inventory is at a high level [17][18] - Demand: Downstream operating rate decreased to 39.14%, and demand is weak in the off - season; new orders are limited [17][18] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [17][18] PVC - Supply: Operating rate increased to 78.19%, and supply is relatively high; social inventory is still high [19] - Demand: Downstream operating rate has declined slightly, and demand is weak; Indian policies and the real - estate market affect exports and domestic demand [19] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [19] Soybean Oil - Supply: U.S. soybean growing conditions are good, and domestic soybean crushing volume is at a high level, and inventory is increasing [20][21] - Demand: There's no clear macro - guidance, and the market is worried about future supply [20][21] - Outlook: Futures will oscillate weakly in the short term [20][21] Soybean Meal - Supply: U.S. soybean sowing is almost finished, and domestic soybean inventory and crushing volume have increased; meal inventory has increased [22] - Demand: There's no clear macro - guidance, and the market is worried about future supply [22] - Outlook: The domestic market will run strongly, and it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [22] Rebar - Supply: Weekly production decreased by 5.24% to 207.57 tons due to environmental protection and maintenance, but overall supply is still sufficient [23][24] - Demand: New construction projects and infrastructure progress are slow, and demand is in the off - season; inventory removal is slow [24] - Outlook: Prices will be suppressed in the short term [24] Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply: Weekly production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.65 tons, but the total output is at a high level, and supply pressure persists [25] - Demand: Downstream manufacturing demand is divided, and overall demand is weak; inventory is rising [25] - Outlook: It will face downward pressure in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may improve [25][27]

【冠通研究】 多方博弈，铜价震荡运行 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 【策略分析】 沪铜日内承压运行。尽管美国总统特朗普的贸易战加剧了价格压力，但美国 5 月未 季调 CPI 年率升至 2.4%，高于 4 月份 2.3%的增幅，但不及分析师预测的 2.5%。市场预期 美联储未来一年将累计降息 77 个基点，此前预期未来一年降息 67 个基点，到 12 月降息 42 个基点。交易员加大对美联储 9 月开始降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次。供给 端，精铜矿港口库存大幅去化，铜原料端供应趋紧，截至 2025 年 6 月 9 日，现货粗炼费 为-42.9 美元/千吨，现货精炼费为-4.28 美分/磅，铜精矿目前供应紧缺，叠加冶炼厂亏 损加深，冶炼厂面临减量减产风险。中国 5 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量锐减至 42.7 万吨， 环比下降 2.5%，进口量减少而国内库存去化停滞，市场需求端环比减弱。进入需求淡季 阶段，表观消费量减少，5 月预计继续处于下降周期内。下游铜箔、铜管等开工率均环比 出现下降，下游终端虽有韧性,但对铜向上传导力度不足，需求依然是制约铜价上涨的重 要原因。整体来说，美国经济数据助推美联储降 ...

早盘速递 2025/6/12 热点资讯 1.欧洲央行行长拉加德在演讲中表示，强制性贸易政策不是解决当今贸易紧张局势的可持续办法。保护主义在缓解失衡问题 时，并非解决根源问题，而是在侵蚀全球繁荣的基础。随着各国如今通过全球供应链深度融合——但地缘政治上不再像过去那 样结盟——这种风险比以往任何时候都更大。 2. 据纽约邮报报道，特朗普表示，他对伊朗会同意在与美国修订后的核协议中终止所有铀浓缩活动失去了希望，但仍决心不 让伊朗获得核武器。当被问及是否认为自己能让伊朗同意关闭其核项目时，特朗普称："我不知道。我之前是这么认为的，但 现在我越来越没信心了。 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.57% 贵金属, 30.02% 油脂油料, 11.65% 软商品, 2.74% 有色, 20.08% 煤焦钢矿, 13.48% 能源, 2.43% 化工, 12.91% 谷物, 1.48% 农副产品, 2.64% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,0 ...