Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices continued to decline with a bearish market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction was obvious. The supply remained high while the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Although the price was at a low level and might rebound, the rebound height was expected to be limited and would depend on export and agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened low and closed lower, approaching historical lows. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The daily output remained high, restricting the upside of the price. The demand was weak, with low agricultural fertilizer - preparation enthusiasm, decreasing compound fertilizer factory operation rates, and a decline in melamine operation rates. The inventory increased due to slow downstream purchases and postponed port inspections. The price was expected to rebound, but the height would depend on exports and agricultural demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1670 yuan/ton and closed at 1646 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was 307097 lots (+20038 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 11936 lots and short positions by 15036 lots. Some futures companies had changes in net long and net short positions [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes were mainly stable with a downward trend, and new orders were not smoothly traded. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The spot market mainstream quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 84 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. Supply Data - On June 12, 2025, the national urea daily output was 20.30 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Downstream Data - From June 6 to June 12, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.81%, down 3.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.77%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous week [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of various asset classes including international and domestic futures, important macro - economic news, and the performance of financial markets. It reflects the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial environment, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing market movements. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices soared, with the US crude oil main contract rising 5.11% to $68.30 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 4.58% to $69.93 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.98% at $3376.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.77% at $36.36 per ounce [3] - London base metals mostly declined, with LME nickel down 1.13% at $15145.00 per ton and LME copper down 1.12% at $9647.00 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) up over 1%, while coking coal, glass, and soda ash down over 1% [5] - US agricultural product futures mostly fell, with CBOT corn down 0.51%, CBOT wheat down 0.09%, and CBOT soybeans down 0.76% [5] Important Information Macro - economic Information - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that mandatory trade policies are not a sustainable solution to current trade tensions [8] - Trump lost hope that Iran would agree to terminate all uranium enrichment activities in a revised nuclear deal but remains determined to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons [8] - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China - US economic and trade relations [8] - In May, China's futures trading market volume and turnover decreased year - on - year by 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [9] - Trump claimed a major victory for the US as the federal appellate court ruled that the US can use tariffs for self - protection [9] - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% due to good CPI data [9] - US May unadjusted CPI annual rate rose to 2.4%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts increased [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - A methanol storage tank fire in Iran's Bushehr Port caused at least three deaths [12] - As of June 9, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.725 million barrels from the previous week [13] - As of June 11, China's methanol port inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 652,200 tons [13] - Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 206,359 kiloliters in the week ending June 7 [14] - A large alumina plant in Shandong adjusted its 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda purchase price down by 10 yuan per ton [14] - In the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.644 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 237,000 barrels [14] Metal Futures - A primary lead smelter in Southwest China plans a one - week maintenance starting late June, with an expected daily lead ingot output reduction of about 300 tons [17] - From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of China's passenger vehicle market reached 343,000 units, a 19% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease from the previous month [17] Black - series Futures - Australia's CML lowered its July offer price for manganese ore to China by $0.15 per ton - degree [19] - Eramet Comilog cut its manganese ore offer price to China by $0.15 per ton - degree [19] - Qinghai Shuohua Silicon Iron Plant plans to reduce production by 90 tons per day [20] - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills decreased by 0.11 percentage points, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points [20] - China's national building materials social inventory increased by 1.77 tons, factory inventory decreased by 12.97 tons, and production decreased by 8.16 tons [20] Agricultural Product Futures - As of June 6, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 0.02% from the previous week [23] - As of June 4, Argentine farmers sold 1.7579 million tons of 2024/2025 soybeans [23] - TA Securities analyst expects palm oil prices to decline in the second half of 2025 due to strong production and weakening demand [23] - Due to increased import costs and low inventory, the decline of domestic soybean meal prices is limited [23] - Germany's Oilworld expects Indonesia to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025 [24] - On June 11, the actual transaction volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 15,899 tons, with a transaction rate of 13.5% [24] - The estimated sugar beet production in the EU 27 and the UK in 2025/2026 remains at 113 million tons [25] - From June 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% [27] - Market expectations for US soybean and corn export net sales in different market years are provided [27] Financial Markets Finance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting the inclusion of STAR Market ETFs in the Fund Connect platform and optimizing relevant trading mechanisms [29] - A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83%, and ChiNext Index up 1.21% [29] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.84%, and related technology and enterprise indices also increased [29] - Insurance funds are accelerating their entry into the stock market, with 7 insurance companies making 15 stake - increasing moves by the end of May [31] - The stock repurchase and stake - increasing re - loan tool is showing its function of stabilizing the capital market, with a total loan amount of 130.625 billion yuan [31] Industry - More than ten mainstream passenger vehicle enterprises promised to unify supplier payment terms within 60 days [32] - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle sales up 36.9% [32] - The National Certification and Accreditation Administration is promoting CCC certification pilot work in the automobile field [32] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission are promoting the cultivation of bio - manufacturing pilot platforms [33] - Nine departments in Shanghai are promoting green finance development [35] - Zhejiang is supporting the overseas expansion of the game industry [35] - European banks have spent over 1.1 billion euros on senior staff layoffs since 2018 [35] Overseas - US May tariff revenue reached a record high, narrowing the deficit, but the sustainability of tariff revenue is in question [36] - Trump said the federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs was a major victory for the US and there is a possibility of reconciling with Musk [36] - US Treasury Secretary Bezant hopes to serve as Treasury Secretary until 2029, defends the government's spending and tax - cut bill, and is willing to extend the tariff suspension period [38] - Gold has become the second - largest reserve asset of global central banks, with a 20% share in 2024 [38] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices slightly declined, with concerns over Trump's tariff policies and regulatory tightening in the tech sector [39] - European major stock indices showed mixed performance, affected by multiple factors [39] Commodities - In May, China's futures trading market volume and turnover decreased year - on - year, but increased in the January - May period [40] - International oil prices rose significantly, and geopolitical risks and China - US relations are expected to cause oil prices to fluctuate strongly [42] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, influenced by US tariff policies and Fed policy expectations [42] - London base metals mostly declined due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [42] Bonds - The domestic bond market performed strongly, with rumors of the central bank's six - month repurchase inquiry [43] - US Treasury yields declined as May CPI data eased inflation concerns [43] - "New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach believes US debt is unsustainable and advises increasing non - dollar asset allocation [45] - European bond yields generally rose due to trade policy uncertainties [45] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 11 basis points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up 25 basis points [46] - US May CPI data strengthened market expectations of Fed rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and mixed performance of non - US currencies [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current soybean meal market presents a mixed situation. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area and potential tariff policies support the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal on dips [3]. - Urea prices are currently at a historical low. After wheat harvesting, with the support of agricultural demand and exports, prices may bounce back, but overall remains weak without significant changes in export policies [5]. - Copper prices are fluctuating within a range. They are highly susceptible to global trade trends and Fed inflation and interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to recent CPI data and China - US trade negotiations [10]. - The rebound of lithium carbonate is mainly due to improved macro - level sentiment rather than fundamentals. It is advisable to short on rebounds [12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. OPEC+ production increases and supply - demand factors need to be considered [13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [15]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure and improved commodity sentiment [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level, facing inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [18]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, with high supply and low demand [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to be weak in the short - term, pressured by inventory and weak demand [21]. - For coking coal, the supply pressure has eased slightly, but the fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. - Rebar may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks. Track steel mill production cuts and inventory data [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term, with a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Commodities Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and rose today, with a closing increase of 0.93%. In the US, soybean planting is nearly finished and weather is favorable. In China, as of June 6, soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week [3]. Urea - Urea prices opened low and continued to decline today. Supply is stable, with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It may rebound after wheat harvesting, but overall remains weak [4][5]. Futures Market Summary - As of June 11, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Industrial silicon rose over 2%, while palm oil and container shipping to Europe fell over 2% [7]. Core Views on Individual Commodities Copper - Copper prices fluctuated within a range. Supply is tight with reduced port inventory and potential smelter cuts. Demand is in a downward cycle, and prices are affected by trade and Fed policies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with a nearly 2% increase. Spot prices increased slightly. The rebound is due to macro - sentiment, not fundamentals. Be cautious when chasing up [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded due to multiple factors. OPEC+ will increase production in July. Supply and demand factors are complex, and prices are expected to oscillate [13]. Asphalt - Asphalt supply increased, with a 3.6 - percentage - point increase in the start - up rate last week. Demand is mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15]. PP - PP downstream start - up rate decreased. Supply increased with new device production and restarted units. Inventory pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic start - up rate increased, but downstream start - up rate decreased. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply increased, while demand is weak. Inventory is still high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The 09 contract of soybean oil opened low and declined, with a closing decrease of 0.93%. US soybean growth data is mixed, and domestic inventory is increasing. Futures are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Supply pressure eased, but demand is weak. The fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose 0.67% today. Supply is still loose, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is decreasing slowly. It may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks [23][24]. Hot - rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices rose 0.78% today. Supply pressure increased, demand is in the off - season, and cost support weakened. It is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "Oscillating operation", and the strategy is to "Sell short on rallies after rebounds" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level. Although the sentiment in the commodity market has improved due to the agreement between China and the US to implement the results of the economic and trade talks, there are still many factors restricting the price of PP, such as high inventory pressure, slow downstream recovery, and limited new orders [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 50.01% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 44.7%, and orders slightly decreased [1][4] - The US tariff increase is unfavorable for PP downstream product exports, and the import of upstream propane for polypropylene is restricted [1] - Newly added maintenance devices such as Xuzhou Haitian have reduced the PP enterprise开工率 to about 85%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard wire drawing has dropped to about 27% [1][4] - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the petrochemical inventory has increased significantly and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - The wildfires in Canada have affected crude oil production, the intensity of mutual attacks between Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the agreement between China and the US to implement the results of the economic and trade talks, along with better - than - expected US non - farm data, have led to a rebound in crude oil prices [1] - The two sets of devices in Exxon Huizhou have been put into production and are releasing production capacity. Recently, some maintenance devices have restarted. With the arrival of the rainy season in the South, the downstream recovery is slow, plastic weaving开工率 has slightly decreased, and new orders are limited [1] Futures Market - The PP2509 contract decreased its position and oscillated, with a minimum price of 6935 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6983 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6960 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.27%. The position decreased by 10063 lots to 501412 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in most regions are stable. The price of wire drawing is reported at 6930 - 7230 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, new maintenance devices such as Xuzhou Haitian have reduced the PP enterprise开工率 to about 85%, at a neutral level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of June 6, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 50.01% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 44.7%, and orders slightly decreased [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 83 tons week - on - week, 2 tons higher than the same period last year. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 16 tons to 89 tons, with significant inventory accumulation during the festival and at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 08 contract fluctuated around 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 25 US dollars to 750 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea price is fluctuating at a low level. The supply is stable, but the high daily production restricts the upward space of the price. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak without significant changes in export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower, continuing to hit new lows. The spot price was mainly stable with a downward trend due to the weak futures market. The supply was stable, but the high daily production limited the upward space of the price. The demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1700 yuan/ton and closed at 1667 yuan/ton, down 1.48%. The trading volume was 287,041 lots, an increase of 18,208 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 7,005 lots, and the short positions increased by 18,351 lots [2]. Spot - Affected by the weak futures market, the urea spot market had difficulty in receiving orders, and the price was mainly stable with a downward trend. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][5]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 11, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,042, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9 in Puyang Huangfu [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Data - On June 11, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared to the previous day [10]. Inventory Data - As of June 11, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 13.69% [13]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 11, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.71 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.39% [13].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.30%报 3344.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.38%报 36.66 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价全线下跌，美油主力合约跌 0.84%，报 64.74 美元/桶。布油主力合 约跌 0.67%，报 66.59 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌参半，LME 期铝涨 0.61%报 2494.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 0.34%报 2658.50 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.69%报 9725.00 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。焦煤、焦炭涨超 1%，铁矿石、低硫燃料油 （LU）、豆一涨近 1%；跌幅方面，棕榈油、PX、PTA、短纤跌近 1%。 5. 美国农产品期货多数上涨，CBOT 玉米期货涨 1.27%，报 4.39 美元/蒲式耳。 CBOT 小麦期货跌 1.25%，报 5.3525 美元/蒲式耳。CBOT 大豆期货涨 0.17%，报 10.5775 美元/蒲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low on June 10, 2025, with a nearly 2% decline in the afternoon. The market sentiment is expected to continue weakening. Although supply has decreased slightly due to temporary inspections in some factories, the daily output remains around 200,000 tons, limiting the upside of the futures price. The demand is weak, with slow agricultural demand and low operating loads in compound fertilizer factories. After the wheat harvest, agricultural demand is expected to increase, but it may not change the oversupply situation. The current low price may lead to a rebound, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment is expected to weaken. Supply decreased slightly, but daily output is still around 200,000 tons, restricting the upside. Demand is weak, and after the wheat harvest, agricultural demand may increase but has limited support [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,700 yuan/ton and closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, a -1.24% change. The trading volume was 268,833 lots (+2,976 lots). The positions of the top 20 main players showed a decrease of 6,305 lots in long positions and an increase of 955 lots in short positions. On June 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,051, a decrease of 2 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: After a price cut yesterday, orders improved and prices were slightly raised. However, with the decline in futures today, the market sentiment is expected to weaken. The ex-factory prices of small - sized urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The spot market price was stable, while the futures closing price declined. The basis of the September contract in Shandong strengthened by 19 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On June 10, 2025, the national daily urea output was 202,200 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous day [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low inventory currently is the main reason supporting the rise in copper prices. The tariff policy is expected to drive the global copper trade, and copper prices are mainly fluctuating strongly. Attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly during the day. Citibank postponed the Fed's interest rate cut expectation by two months and predicted a 75 - basis - point cut this year. In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [1] - On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has been significantly reduced, and the supply of copper raw materials has tightened. As of June 9, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 42.9 dollars per thousand tons, and the spot refining fee was - 4.28 cents per pound. The supply of copper concentrate is currently in short supply, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to deepening losses. The inventory reduction in other regions due to steel tariffs has deepened the supply shortage [1] - On the demand side, as of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.2827 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons or 6.54% from the previous month. Entering the off - season, the apparent consumption is expected to continue to decline in May. Although major indicators such as PMI have improved, the operating rates of downstream copper foil, copper tubes, etc. have decreased month - on - month, and demand remains an important factor restricting the rise in copper prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed up. The closing price was 78,880. The long positions of the top 20 were 130,482 lots, a decrease of 2,683 lots; the short positions were 132,136 lots, a decrease of 2,463 lots [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 65 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On June 9, 2025, the LME official price was 9,740 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 109 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on June 9, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 42.9 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.28 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 496 tons from the previous period. As of June 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 51,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 120,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 189,700 short tons, an increase of 1,843 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Citi postponed the expected time of the Fed's next interest rate cut from July to September, and now expects the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, with 25 basis - point cuts in September, October, and December, while the market expects only about 46 basis - point cuts by the end of the year [1] - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore were 486 million tons, a decrease of 5.2%, with an average import price of 707.2 yuan per ton, a drop of 16.4%; crude oil imports were 230 million tons, an increase of 0.3%, at 3864.3 yuan per ton, a drop of 10.6%; coal imports were 189 million tons, a decrease of 7.9%, at 559 yuan per ton, a drop of 22.5%; natural gas imports were 49.053 million tons, a decrease of 9.5%, at 3274 yuan per ton, a drop of 6.8%; soybean imports were 37.108 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%, at 3233.9 yuan per ton, a drop of 13.9%; refined oil imports were 15.98 million tons, a decrease of 26.8%, at 4323.2 yuan per ton, a drop of 0.1% [1] - In May 2025, China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to May decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [1] - On June 9 local time, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, started the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US side in London, UK [1] - California Governor Gavin Newsom said on social media that Trump incited trouble and illegally federalized the National Guard, and he would sue the Trump administration over the National Guard deployment issue [1] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include styrene, corn, soda ash, urea, and coking coal [1] 3. Night - session Performance - The performance of commodity futures main contracts in the night session is presented in a chart, but specific data for each commodity is not detailed in text [1] 4. Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.62%, precious metals rose 30.32%, oilseeds and oils rose 11.58%, soft commodities rose 2.63%, non - ferrous metals rose 19.87%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals rose 13.43%, energy rose 2.41%, chemicals rose 12.98%, grains rose 1.46%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.70% [2] 5. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data for each sector is not detailed in text [4] 6. Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% daily, 1.56% monthly, and 1.43% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.63% daily, 3.83% monthly, and 20.55% year - to - date [5] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.09% daily, 0.25% monthly, and 0.07% year - to - date [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index rose 0.21% daily, 3.82% monthly, and 1.61% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.47% daily, 1.11% monthly, and 26.71% year - to - date [5] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index fell 0.19% daily, 0.42% monthly, and 8.72% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 9.69% monthly, and fell 3.34% year - to - date [5]