【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 【宏观面分析】 【基本面分析】 美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据 说话。鲍威尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任 者远离政治。 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙江有烯烃重启，但总体在外轮供应补充下库存积累。华南地区周 内广东仅少量内贸补充，但主流库区提货减弱，因无外轮补充供应，因此库存去 库；福建地区周内无卸货，库存同步去库。 美国至 1 月 23 日当周 EIA 汽油库存降幅录得 2025 年 11 月 7 日当周以来最 大，为连续第 11 周录得增加；当周国内 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited. Soybeans are expected to continue a relatively strong oscillatory trend [1]. - Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival. If there is a large decline, it can be considered to buy on dips [1]. - There is no obvious short - term driver for eggs, and due to a marginal improvement in the存栏量 compared to the second half of last year, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2]. - Pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show continuous growth. The far - month needs to focus on capacity reduction in the recent two months and the number of reproductive sows [3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybeans - In the Northeast production area, the spot market for low - protein soybeans is stable, with little remaining grain in the grass - roots level and sluggish transactions. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, showing the characteristic of high - quality and high - price. The price of 39% protein - content commercial beans in some areas is around 2.2 yuan per catty. Multiple domestic soybean two - way bidding transactions by the China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation have all been successfully concluded recently, indicating certain market demand support [1]. Corn - In the production area of Northeast China, after entering the twelfth lunar month, farmers' willingness to hold prices has slightly weakened, and the phenomenon of farmers threshing and selling grain for cash has increased, resulting in a slight improvement in the supply of grass - roots corn. In terms of demand, there is a rigid demand for pre - Spring Festival stockpiling in the feed and deep - processing industries, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some factories has increased. However, due to the relatively high price of dry grain, the inventory days of mainstream feed and deep - processing corn have increased to more than 30 days, and the factory's raw material inventory is relatively safe, with a cautious market sentiment [1]. Eggs - The current inventory of laying hens is still at a relatively high level in recent years, and the basic market supply capacity is sufficient. The culling rhythm of old hens has slowed down. With the recent rapid and substantial increase in egg prices, the breeding income has expanded, and farmers' confidence has been restored. There is a common idea in the industry to delay the culling of old hens and even carry out molting later, resulting in a decrease in the number of old hens sold and a slowdown in the reduction of production capacity. According to the breeding cycle, the recently newly - opened laying hens were the chicks replenished around October 2025. Although the egg prices at that time inhibited some replenishment, the established production capacity is still being gradually opened, resulting in a situation of "old hens not leaving, new hens coming", which keeps the overall national production capacity at a high level [2]. Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, currently 101.6% of the normal inventory. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared with the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared with the previous year - end. The pig inventory at the end of 2025 was still higher than the same period last year, indicating that pig de - capacity is still ongoing. It is estimated that the spot supply around the Spring Festival is still large, and the near - month and spot prices are difficult to show continuous growth. The far - month needs to focus on capacity reduction in the recent two months and the number of reproductive sows [2][3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. Affected by the overall market today, the price has declined, but there is support from anti - involution and rising energy costs. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will limit the price rebound space. In the short term, the futures price may maintain a volatile trend with a limited range. In February, as downstream enterprises gradually shut down for the holiday, the pre - holiday demand may weaken further, and the price may undergo a weak adjustment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, showing weakness during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the middle Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 167,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 14,274 lots. The intraday high was 1230, the low was 1197, and the closing price was 1204, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: The spot market remained weakly stable. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream procurement sentiment was poor, and they mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 46 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% from last week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of over one million tons was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 300,900 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, and the procurement enthusiasm was poor. They mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and the overall output is increasing with new capacity. The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered due to the resumption of a glass production line. Affected by the overall market, the price has dropped today, but there is support. The high inventory pressure limits the price rebound. In the short term, the price may fluctuate, and in February, it may weaken as downstream demand declines [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 豆粕：Safras & Mercado：虽然今年巴西大豆产量有望创下历史最高纪录， 但农民们仍然对出售大豆犹豫不决。由于大豆供应预期充足，豆价低迷，在一个 月内，大豆价格下跌了高达 10 雷亚尔/袋，目前农户的销售速度依然缓慢，这种 环境可能导致大豆利润进一步下滑。迄今为止种植户仅预售了 30.3%的新豆，上 年同期为 39%，过去五年均值为 41.1%。USDA 出口销售：截至 2026 年 1 月 22 日， 2025/26 年度（始于 9 月 1 日），美国对中国（大陆地区）大豆出口量为 351.5 万吨，低于去年同期的 1777.2 万吨。当周美国对中国装运 82.85 万吨大豆。 2025/26 年度迄今美国对中国已销售但未装运的大豆为 965.4 万吨，去年同期 244.4 万吨。 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、国粮中心、 McDonald Pelz、金十期货网站。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The overall situation of coke is biased towards a volatile trend, with a short - term continuation of the rebound. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 1012.35 tons, at a 7 - and - a - half - month high, with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] - The profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 92 yuan/ton [1] - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% month - on - month and 1.02% year - on - year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% compared with last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.12 tons to 227.98 tons month - on - month [1] - Near the Spring Festival, the supply of upstream coking coal is expected to decline. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.2 tons to 267.2 tons; the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 46 tons to 2864.34 tons month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] News - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival holiday situation of 523 coking coal mines across the country. Currently, there are 395 mines in production, with a total production capacity of 757 million tons. A total of 388 mines have plans to stop production during the holiday, with a production capacity of 744 million tons affected, resulting in an impact on raw coal production of 1.868 million tons [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen the comprehensive supervision of key product quality and rectify the "involution - style" competition [2] Supply - Demand Pattern - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by the cost of upstream coking coal, the demand of downstream steel, and the guidance of macro - policies. The comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand [2] - Downstream steel mills have successively announced shutdown and maintenance plans during the Spring Festival. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the demand for coke further declines [2] - However, coking is in continuous loss, and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. There have been frequent news about fiscal and monetary policies at the macro level, and there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short - term, asphalt is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend, and the arbitrage suggestion is mainly reverse arbitrage. The supply of asphalt is at a low level, and there may be a shortage of raw materials in the future. Although the demand is weak, there is some stocking and arbitrage demand. The price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is at a low level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have available raw material inventories before March, and the asphalt supply will be tight at the end of the month [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt planned production is 193.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 5.80% week - on - week to 214,500 tons. Next week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operation will remain at a low level [1]. - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined this week. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 14%. The rigid demand in the north has basically stagnated, but there is stocking and arbitrage demand. Southern projects are gradually entering the final stage [1]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The Asian sales price of Venezuelan oil has risen [1]. - Price and basis: The asphalt price in Shandong has a slight increase, and the basis is still at a low level. The mainstream market price in Shandong has risen to 3,260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract has risen to - 164 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.38% to 3,424 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,407 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,554 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 24,185 to 145,873 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5% week - on - week, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage points compared with that from January to October 2025 but is still negative [4]. - Demand side: From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 6.0%, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025. As of the week of January 30, most downstream operating rates of asphalt industries declined, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月30日 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 1月30日，新增独山子石化一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至78.5%左右，处于偏低水平，标品拉 丝生产比例上涨至28%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本 端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。近 期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定，但其新增 订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短期跟随市场情绪偏 强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，PP反弹可持续性谨慎对待。由于塑 料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，预计L-PP价差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡运行，最低价6765元/吨，最高价6959元/ ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：冲高回落 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 棉花：期货市场的强劲反弹带动疆内外仓储库棉花现货挂单、报价同步大幅 上调，但现货交投却持续低迷，纺企补库热情显著下滑，疆内外棉花价差更是居 高不下，成为当前市场最突出的痛点。今天盘中受到商品市场普遍下跌的影响， 棉花出现明显回落，春节前预估投机资金不断流出，棉花价格将逐渐回归供需面， 在冲高乏力后，存在往下小幅调整可能，但是下方空间并不大，仍然以宽幅震荡 看待。 1 冠通期货 骆利关 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 白糖：澳大利亚糖和生物燃料分析机构 Green Pool 近日发布报告，预计 2026/27 榨季全球糖市将连续第二年出现过剩，食糖供应过剩 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡延续 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量减仓 17466 手，成交量 523900 手，相比上一交易日放量，日内最低价 3285 元，最高价 3325 元，日内 减仓下跌，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，30 日均线，收于 3288 元/吨，下跌 10 元，跌幅 0.30%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3290 元/吨。相比上一交易日维 稳。 3，基差：期现基差 2 元。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 29 日热卷周产量环比上升 3.8 万吨至 309.21 万吨。 本周产量处于近几年中等偏上水平。反映钢厂在春节前仍然维持高生产节奏， 生产积极性提升。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 29 日周度表观消费量环比上升 1.45 万吨至 311.41 万 吨，表需本周微增，且在历年同期中属于较好水平。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下降 2.22 万吨至 355.58 万吨（社 会库存周环比下降 2.81 万吨，钢厂库存增 0.61 万吨），总库存环比下降，库 存压力边际缓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Due to geopolitical situations and cold weather, crude oil prices are oscillating strongly. However, the market is still in a state of oversupply, and the EIA's latest January report has raised the expected surplus for 2026. Traders should be aware of significant price fluctuations and manage risks [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025, suspending production increases in February and March 2026. Despite the off - peak demand season, winter storms led to an unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories and a slight increase in refined oil inventories, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories. US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day, about 15% of the national production, last weekend due to the storms. The IMF raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude, which currently has little impact on global supply and demand. The US imposed new sanctions on Iran on the 23rd and has not ruled out military action. The Iranian military will conduct live - fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1 - 2. The Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan will restart, but only half of its capacity will be restored by February 7 [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 465.8 yuan/ton and a high of 499.6 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4265 to 44117 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price forecast by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On January 28, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 decreased by 2.295 million barrels, against an expected increase of 1.848 million barrels, and were 2.94% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, against an expected increase of 1.009 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, against an expected decrease of 583,000 barrels; heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, against an expected increase of 279,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its November 2025 crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. US crude oil production for the week ending January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, near the historical high. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a 0.08% decrease from the same period last year, with the decline narrowing. Gasoline weekly production increased 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 8.266 million barrels per day, a 0.39% decrease from the same period last year. Diesel weekly production increased 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 3.721 million barrels per day, a 4.78% decrease from the same period last year. The increase in gasoline and diesel production led to a 2.49% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]