原油：原油震荡上行 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025年9月16日 【策略分析】 观望 原油逐步退出季节性出行旺季，目前EIA数据显示美国原油、汽油超预期累库，精炼油累库幅度 超预期，整体油品库存继续增加，不过，美国炼厂开工率小幅回升0.6个百分点，仍然较高。9月7日， OPEC+正式发表声明，鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康（反映在较低的原油库存水平上）， 八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶的产量调整，该调整 将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢复，且将以循序渐进 方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议，这将加剧四季度的原油压力，IEA最新月报 再度提高原油过剩幅度。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元 /桶。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，印度和美国仍在继续谈判。关注后续 俄乌停火协议谈判进展及印度对于俄罗斯原油的采购情况。后续消费旺季即将结束，美国非农就业 数据疲软令市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产。原油供需将转弱，建议中长期逢高做空为主。短期 ...

【冠通研究】 盘面回弹，等待驱动 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 16 日 【策略分析】 今日高开低走，日内偏强震荡，昨日受期货反弹影响，上游工厂成交转好， 今日报价有小幅反弹。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围 多在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要 执行出口集港订单。尿素工厂近两周复产为主，产量回升，目前日产接近 19 万 吨，近期山西装置技改停车，地区产量小幅减少，需求端，价格前期已下跌至下 游可接受范围，期货反弹后下游陆续开启拿货，行情边际转好。阅兵后一周复合 肥工厂开工负荷回升，目前开工同步去年基本持平，本月复合肥厂成品库存连续 去化，肥料目前开启至终端转移，且尿素价格近期偏弱运行，工厂利润抬升，但 目前备肥已近七八成，后续增量受限。虽产量目前减量，但下游内需不足，库存 依然表现为增加，且目前库存高企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整 体来说，期货氛围转好后，现货开启低价拿货，盘面筑底后开启技术性反弹，但 宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动，谨慎追涨。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1700 元/吨开盘， ...

养殖产业链数据报告-豆粕、油脂 2025-06-23 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 豆粕:111家样本企业：表观消费量：中国（周） 压榨厂：豆粕:111家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2025-06-23 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料 我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考 并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何 直接或间接损失概不负责 本报告仅向特定客户传送 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版 须注明出处为冠通期货股份有 王 静，执业资格证号F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 压榨厂：豆油：库存：中国（周） 棕榈油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 2025-06-23 菜油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 豆油现货主力合约基差(元/吨） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 ...

Key Points Summary Hot News - China's real estate market is moving towards stabilization with narrowing year-on-year declines in commercial housing sales and residential prices, but more efforts are needed [2] - Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [2] - China opposes the US's intention to impose "secondary tariffs" on China over the purchase of Russian oil, threatening to take necessary measures to safeguard its interests [2] - The US has opened a "window" to impose tariffs on more steel and aluminum derivatives under Section 232 [2] - China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain, and had candid, in - depth, and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [3] Key Commodities - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, LPG, rapeseed meal, and Shanghai gold [4] Plate Performance - In terms of plate price changes, the non - metallic building materials plate rose 2.66% [6] - Regarding plate capital ratios, precious metals accounted for 30.14%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 21.15%, coal - coking - steel - ore at 14.41%, etc [7] Asset Performance - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% daily, rose 0.07% monthly, and 15.18% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.22% daily, 5.46% monthly, and 31.84% annually [8] - In the fixed - income market, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.12% daily, 0.00% monthly, and fell 1.03% annually [9] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index rose 1.24% daily, 1.03% monthly, and 2.95% annually; London spot gold rose 1.00% daily, 6.73% monthly, and 40.19% annually [9] - Other assets: the US dollar index fell 0.27% daily, 0.50% monthly, and 10.25% annually; the CBOE volatility remained unchanged daily, fell 3.91% monthly, and 14.93% annually [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also highlights significant events such as geopolitical tensions, economic data releases, and corporate announcements that may impact the markets. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.90% at $3,719.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.84% at $43.19 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices edged up, with the U.S. oil main contract up 0.94% at $63.28 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.69% at $67.45 per barrel [3]. - Most London base metals closed higher, with LME copper up 1.21% at $10,189 per ton, hitting a 15 - month high [3]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with coking coal up over 5%, coke and glass up over 4%, and soda ash up over 3% [4]. Important News Macroeconomic News - China's real - estate market is moving towards stabilization, with narrowing year - on - year declines in property sales and prices [7]. - Hamas has suspended cease - fire and hostage - exchange talks with Israel [7]. - China opposes U.S. economic coercion and trade restrictions [7]. - Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks are ongoing [8]. - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) dropped 8.1% [8]. - The U.S. is opening a tariff "inclusion window" for steel and aluminum derivatives [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 15, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 6.94% month - on - month [12]. - The EU is considering sanctions on Indian companies involved in Russian oil trade [13]. - Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's Primorsk port has ended, and the port has resumed operations [14]. Metal Futures - Xinjiang's latest alumina spot tender was 10,000 tons at a price of 3,220 - 3,230 yuan per ton [16]. - Gold prices have soared 39% this year [18]. - Two smelters in Guangxi and Jiangxi will suspend domestic silver supply this week [19]. - Some lead smelters in the north may start winter stockpiling earlier [19]. Black - series Futures - China's August steel production data showed mixed trends, with crude steel down 0.7% year - on - year, pig iron up 1.0%, and steel up 9.7% [21]. - From January to August, real - estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [21]. - Two coal mines in Shanxi and Linfen have suspended production [21][22]. - Global iron ore shipments increased from September 8 - 14 [24]. - Some steel mills in Hebei lowered their coke purchase prices [24]. Agricultural Futures - As of September 12, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased [27]. - Canada's rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending September 7 [27]. - Malaysia's Sabah state was hit by landslides and floods [27]. - As of September 12, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased slightly, while palm oil increased [29]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.6% [30]. - India's vegetable oil imports increased in August [30]. - As of September 15, the national inventory of imported soybeans at ports increased [31]. - U.S. soybean and corn export inspection volumes increased in the week ending September 11 [31]. - In August, the U.S. soybean crush volume and豆油 inventory showed specific changes [31]. - As of September 14, the U.S. soybean's good - to - excellent rate, harvest rate, and leaf - fall rate were reported [32]. Financial Market Stock Market - A - shares showed a divergent trend on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.63% [35]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.91% [35]. - Hesai Technology's global share offering had high subscription rates [35]. - BeBeBus's parent company launched an IPO [35]. - U.S. stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs [45]. - Google's market value exceeded $3 trillion [45]. - The South Korean Composite Index hit a new high [46]. - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk bought over 2.5 million shares of Tesla [48]. Bond Market - China's bond yields showed mixed trends, and treasury bond futures closed higher [51]. - U.S. bond yields fell across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated slightly on Monday [53]. - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% [53]. Events Schedule - The U.S. Senate will vote on the nomination of a Fed governor at 08:00 [56]. - China's central bank has 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing at 09:20 [56]. - There are several press conferences and important events scheduled throughout the day [56].

冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 宏观 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 原油逐步退出季节性出行旺季,美国原油、汽油超预期累库、整体油品库存继续增加,不过,美国炼厂于工率小幅回升0.6个百 | 短期下跌空间有 ਕ੍ | | | | 分点、仍然较高。9月7日、OPEC+发表声明。实施每日13.7万桶的产量调整、该调整将于2025年10月起实施、这将加剧四季度 | | | | | 的原油压力,IEA再度提高原油过剩幅度。沙特阿美将阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元/桶。俄罗斯原油贴 | | | | | 水扩大后,印度继续进口俄罗斯原油,印度和美国仍在继续谈判。后续消费旺季即将结束,美国非农就业数据疲软令市场担忧 | | 空单暂时逐步止 | | | 原油需求, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: The recent US CPI and PPI data are within market expectations, having no significant impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the US employment market data is below expectations, showing weakness. The market has priced in three interest - rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year. The weakening US dollar under the interest - rate cut expectations supports the upward movement of copper prices [2][5]. - Supply aspect: As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. Factory maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and smelter maintenance, September's electrolytic copper production is expected to drop significantly [2][5]. - Demand aspect: As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen. The SHFE copper inventory has slightly increased, and high prices are suppressing demand, starting a inventory - building trend [2][5]. - Overall view: This week, the Fed's increasing interest - rate cut expectations are weakening the US dollar and pushing up copper prices. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting copper prices. The demand side is optimistic about the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise and are less likely to fall. Attention should be paid to the actual situation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The US August CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, and 2.9% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations. - The US August PPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, lower than expected, and fell 0.1% month - on - month, also below expectations. - The US initial jobless claims reached 263,000, the highest since October 2021, indicating a weakening employment market [11]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly. The highest price was 81,190 yuan/ton, the lowest was 79,400 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 2.23%, and the interval increase was 1.15% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of September 15, the average spot premium in East China was 95 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 25 yuan/ton. With more imported and domestic copper supplies, high prices reduced market purchases, putting pressure on spot premiums [19]. 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of September 15, the weekly change rate of LME copper was 1.22%, closing at $10,068/ton. The LME copper spot discount strengthened slightly. The increasing Fed interest - rate cut expectations supported the rise of LME copper [24]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, up 18.24% year - on - year and 8.94% month - on - month. From January to July, the cumulative import was 17.314 million tons, up 8.0% year - on - year. As of September 12, the inventory at 16 Chinese ports was 574,000 tons, up 14,000 tons from the previous week. - On September 8, 2025, an accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended all operations [29]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of September 12, the spot TC was - $41.42/tonne dry, and the RC was - 4.16 cents/lb, remaining weakly stable. The mid - year long - term contract negotiation set TC/RC at $0/tonne dry and 0 cents/lb. High sulfuric acid prices support smelter profits, but seasonal maintenance in September and October will reduce production, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure, with tight refined copper supply expected [33]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month but up 15.59% year - on - year. Due to policy and maintenance, September's production is expected to drop by 52,500 tons to 1.119 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 11.42%. - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 425,000 tons, down from the previous month but up 2.4% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import was 3.536 million tons, down 2.1% year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - German officials called on Europe to stop the large - scale flow of scrap copper to China. In 2025, 23.18% of China's scrap copper imports from January to July were from Europe, and the new policy will reduce imports from Europe. - In July 2025, scrap copper imports were 190,100 tons, higher than expected, but imports from the US decreased due to tariffs, and scrap copper resources in other regions were also tight [42]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of July 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3745 million tons, at a high level for the same period in history. As the peak season approaches, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved despite price increases, but the realization of peak - season demand remains to be seen [47]. 3.10 Copper Products - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 63.02%, down 0.99% month - on - month but up 1.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the estimated cumulative production of refined copper rods was 8.484 million tons, up 8.64% year - on - year. - During the off - season of air - conditioners, weak terminal demand did not support an increase in orders for copper tube enterprises. This week, copper tube production decreased, and the production schedule remained stable [52]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, up 18.2% year - on - year. From January to July, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,806 hours, 188 hours less than the same period last year. From January to June, power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% year - on - year, a record high for the same period. Power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively [56]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 9.3% year - on - year. The new construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 19.5% year - on - year. The completed area was 276.94 million square meters, down 17.0% year - on - year [60]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, up 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively, up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year, accounting for 45.5% of total vehicle sales [65]. 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of September 12, LME copper inventory started to decline, recording 154,000 tons, down 2.53% from the previous week and 1.23% from the previous month. COMEX copper inventory accumulation slowed down, recording 310,500 tons, up 1.68% from the previous week and 16.38% from the previous month. - On September 11, the total spot inventory of copper in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 82,300 tons, down 3,300 tons from the 4th and 1,500 tons from the 8th. Shanghai bonded area inventory was 77,000 tons, and Guangdong was 5,300 tons, both showing a downward trend. The SHFE inventory increased slightly, up 6,633 tons from the previous week, and high prices suppressed demand, starting a low - level inventory - building trend [70][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, under the situation of weak supply and demand of urea, both spot and futures prices declined. The high inventory of urea factories restricted the upward space of prices. Currently, the price has dropped to an acceptable low - price range in the market. After the futures sentiment improved, spot low - price purchases began, and the futures market started a technical rebound [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, affected by the continuous decline of futures, the domestic demand was insufficient, and the spot market was weak, showing a continuous price - reduction trend. Since the weekend, the urea price continued to decline steadily, and new orders had not improved. However, there was an intention to purchase at the current price. Today, affected by the futures rebound, the low - price spot transactions were smooth [4] 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures on the disk continued to decline. By September 12, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the settlement price on September 5. The weekly trading volume was 1,496.18 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 388.56 million tons; the open interest was 817.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146.72 million tons. The futures decline was weaker than the spot decline, and the basis weakened. As of September 15, the 01 contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 27 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 yuan/ton. On September 15, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,613, a week - on - week decrease of 154 [6][9] 3.3 Urea Supply End - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From September 4 to September 10, the weekly output of urea was 1.2993 billion tons, an increase of 20.3 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and the average daily output was 185,600 tons. It is expected that the probability of output increase in the next cycle is relatively large. The coal price decreased, and the domestic liquefied natural gas price also declined last week. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, while the methanol spot price increased [13][15][16] 3.4 Urea Demand End - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat compared with the previous week. After the parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories decreased continuously this month. However, the fertilizer stockpiling was nearly 70% - 80%, and the subsequent increment was limited. The capacity utilization rate of melamine decreased, and the demand for urea increased insufficiently [18] 3.5 Inventory Data - As of September 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 37.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 382.8 million tons. The port sample inventory was 549.4 million tons, a decrease of 71.5 million tons compared with the previous week [21] 3.6 International Market - India's NFL's urea import tender on September 2 determined a transaction of about 2.03 billion tons, and it is estimated that China's urea supply in this tender may be 700 - 800 million tons. As of September 12, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in different regions showed different trends of increase and decrease [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market continues to advance, with risk appetite being optimistic and exuberant. Interest rate cut trading dominates the market, most risk assets close higher, and the VIX volatility index falls to a historical low [5]. - Overseas, the resilience of inflation and the weakening of employment data strengthen investors' expectations of an interest rate cut. A rate cut in September is almost certain, and the market is divided on whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points, as well as the subsequent magnitude and speed of rate cuts [5]. - In China, export data begins to weaken, inflation indicators show a more severe decline, and the "anti - involution" market continues [5]. - The domestic bond market mostly declines with a near - strong and far - weak pattern, the stock index generally rises, and the commodity sectors show mixed performance with most closing lower [6]. - Amid the dominance of interest rate cut trading, the loosening of liquidity supports the macro - level of the capital market. Risk assets perform well, and gold, as a safe - haven asset, makes a comeback. There are rotations in strength among different commodity sectors [7]. - Although the economic data in China is weak, the expectations are not bad. Liquidity loosening becomes a hotbed for risk assets, and RMB assets are attracting funds [7]. - The US stock market at a historical high will face the test of the September interest rate cut, and the risk of shifting from interest rate cut trading to recession trading is worth alerting [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - Category Assets - In the global market, major stock markets mostly close higher, the BDI index rises significantly, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index decline together, non - US currencies generally benefit, and commodity trends are divergent, with the CRB index rising weekly [5]. - In China, the export data weakens, inflation indicators decline, the bond market mostly declines with a near - strong and far - weak pattern, the stock index generally rises, and the commodity sectors show mixed performance with the Wind commodity index having a weekly change of 2.3%. Among the 10 commodity sector indices, 3 close higher and 7 close lower [5][6]. 2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market mostly declines with a near - strong and far - weak pattern, the stock index generally rises, and the commodity sectors show mixed performance with most closing lower. The growth - style stocks are more dominant, and the market risk appetite increases [14]. - The domestic commodity sectors show an internal - weak and external - strong style. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals rise together, driving the overall commodity market to close higher. The coal - coking - steel - ore sector closes slightly higher, while the chemical sector leads the decline with a fall of - 2.71%, followed by the oilseeds and grains sectors with a decline of over - 1% [6][14]. 3. Fund Flows - Last week, the commodity futures market saw a small overall inflow of funds. The energy, precious metals, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had obvious inflows, while the grains, non - ferrous metals, and chemical sectors had significant outflows [16]. 4. Variety Performance - In the past week, most domestic major commodity futures closed lower. The top - rising commodity futures varieties were Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and Shanghai aluminum, while the top - falling varieties were rubber, lithium carbonate, and low - sulfur fuel oil [21]. 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index dropped significantly, the volatility of the domestic Wind commodity index slightly decreased, and the Nanhua commodity index dropped significantly. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decline in volatility, with the energy, oilseeds, and agricultural and sideline products sectors having a large decline in volatility, while the non - ferrous metals, soft commodities, and grains sectors had a significant increase [25]. 6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities close higher, the BDI soars, copper and oil prices rise, soybeans close lower, gold and silver rise significantly together, the gold - silver ratio fluctuates under pressure, and the gold - oil ratio rises sharply [27]. - Domestically, the asphalt production rate rebounds rapidly, real estate sales continue to decline, freight rates continue to fall, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuate at a low level [42]. 7. Macro Logic - The stock index regains its upward momentum and closes significantly higher, the valuation fluctuates upwards, and the risk premium ERP falls under pressure [31][35]. - The commodity price index fluctuates upwards, inflation expectations decline, and there is a divergence between expectations and reality [36]. - The US Treasury yield shows a divergent pattern with a near - strong and far - weak trend, the term structure flattens, the term spread narrows, the real interest rate drops sharply, and the gold price rises strongly to a new high [45]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" weakens, the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more obvious, and the 10Y - 3M Treasury yield spread turns negative again [49]. 8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to start an interest rate cut in September, and may continue to cut rates in October or December. There is a high probability of a 75 - basis - point rate cut within the year [53]. 9. US Economic Data - US employment data falls short of expectations, and the labor market begins to weaken. In August, the number of new non - farm jobs was 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%, rising for the second consecutive month [57][58]. - US CPI data rebounds further, generally in line with market expectations. In August, the CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [63][64]. 10. China's August Macroeconomic Data - Industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [70]. - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to August was 5.2%. In August, it was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [71]. - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month, and the PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing [72]. - In August, total retail sales of consumer goods were 3,966.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to August, the total was 32,390.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [81]. - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [82]. - In August, the total value of goods imports and exports was 3,874.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to August, the total was 29,569.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [83]. 11. This Week's Focus - Monday (September 15): China releases a series of August economic data, and the US releases the September New York Fed Manufacturing Index. - Tuesday (September 16): The eurozone releases the September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, and the US releases August retail sales data. - Wednesday (September 17): The US releases August new housing starts and building permit totals, and the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision. - Thursday (September 18): The Fed FOMC announces its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary, Fed Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference, the Central Bank of Brazil announces its interest rate decision, the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision, and Meta holds the Connect conference. - Friday (September 19): The Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a generally stable and progressive development trend. Production and demand were basically stable, employment and prices were generally stable, and new driving forces were cultivated and strengthened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 5.1%, 5.7%, and 2.4% year - on - year respectively. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry and high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.1% and 9.3% year - on - year respectively, faster than the overall industrial added value [3]. - From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year. In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points [3]. - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 40204 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [3]. Services - In August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services increased by 12.1%, 9.2%, and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, faster than the service industry production index [4]. - From January to August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.9% year - on - year. From January to July, the operating income of service enterprises above designated size increased by 7.4% year - on - year [4]. - In August, the service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the service industry business activity expectation index was 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The retail sales of urban and rural consumer goods increased by 3.2% and 4.6% year - on - year respectively. The retail sales of goods and catering revenue increased by 3.6% and 2.1% respectively [5]. - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 323906 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The national online retail sales were 99828 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The online retail sales of physical goods were 80964 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, accounting for 25.0% of the total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. - From January to August, the service retail sales increased by 5.1% year - on - year, with relatively fast growth in cultural and sports leisure services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services [5]. Investment - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 4.2%. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [6]. - The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 57304 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 55015 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3% [6]. - In August, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month [6]. Import and Export - In August, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 38744 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 23035 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 15709 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% [7]. - From January to August, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 295696 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 176056 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%; imports were 119640 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2% [7]. - From January to August, general trade imports and exports increased by 2.2%, accounting for 63.9% of the total import and export volume. Imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 5.4%. Private enterprise imports and exports increased by 7.4%, accounting for 57.1% of the total import and export volume, 2.1 percentage points higher than the previous year [7]. Price - In August, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - From January to August, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [8]. - In August, the ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points, and remained flat month - on - month; the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points, and remained flat month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to August, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate nationwide was 5.2%. In August, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month of the previous year [8]. - The surveyed unemployment rate of local household registration labor force was 5.4%; the surveyed unemployment rate of non - local household registration labor force was 5.0%, among which the surveyed unemployment rate of non - local agricultural household registration labor force was 4.7% [8]. - The surveyed unemployment rate in 31 large - scale cities was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and down 0.1 percentage points from the same month of the previous year. The average weekly working hours of enterprise employees nationwide were 48.5 hours [8].