【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯 12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价 差持续上涨。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成 影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗 斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，不过也有乌方官员否认原则上同意美方和平计划，俄乌 和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内瑞拉开展新行动。利比 亚首都的黎波里附近爆 ...

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征 个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 基差 月差 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 仓单数量合计（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1000 2000 3000 主要仓库、厂库仓单数量（张） 432处 安阳万庄库 衡水棉麻库 宁陵史丹利库 中农云仓库 河北东光库 云图控股库 中农控股库 晋控天庆库 中原大化库 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350 450 550 650 750 850 山东09合约基差(元/吨） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 PVC2601合约减仓震荡运行，最低价4466元/吨，最高价4501元/吨，最终收盘于4489元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅0.42%，持仓量减少33859手至1227649手。 基差方面： 11月26日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4445元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4489元/ 吨，目前基差在-44元/吨，走弱13元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍 下跌30-60美元/吨。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to supply surplus and weakened cost support, PP is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 31% [1][4] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration is actively promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky is open to peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has decreased recently. As the downstream enters the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders for plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,258 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 19,187 lots to 586,572 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand side: As of the week of November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material end - crude oil: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the futures price of asphalt will experience a weak and volatile trend. This is due to factors such as the expected increase in asphalt production, the weakening of subsequent demand, and the current neutral level of the asphalt basis in the Shandong region, which has led to a cautious market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week-on-week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month-on-month (a decline of 16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year-on-year (a decline of 11.0%). Refineries such as Zhonghua Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical have stopped asphalt production. This week, refineries like Shandong Shengxing will stably produce asphalt, and the asphalt production rate is expected to rise [1][4] - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34% week-on-week, constrained by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and overall demand is tepid [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 15.28% week-on-week to 246,000 tons, at a slightly below-average level [1] - Price: The price of crude oil has declined. The discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat to Venezuela. The basis of asphalt in the Shandong region is at a neutral level, and the market is cautious [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.56% to 3,043 yuan/ton, near the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,024 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,068 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1,513 to 152,279 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in the Shandong region dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to -33 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4] - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]

2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.78%报 4126.3 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.50%报 51.08 美元/盎司。美联储理事主张大幅降息，强化市 场宽松预期。俄乌冲突现缓和迹象，但西方长期介入仍存不确定性。美国财政赤 字扩大加剧美元信用担忧。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期镍涨 1.50%报 14920.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 0.83%报 37695.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜涨 0.55%报 10832.50 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.02%报 2999.50 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 0.13%报 1981.50 美元/吨，LME 期铝跌 0.39%报 2801.00 美元/吨。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准 ...

Hot News - Since the second term of President Trump, the Chinese and US heads of state have maintained regular exchanges. The recent call, initiated by the US, had a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere, which is important for the stable development of Sino-US relations [2] - Maersk's CEO is encouraged by the peace process in Gaza. Navigation freedom in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has been established, and trade routes have returned to normal. The Suez Canal is the preferred passage for Maersk and its customers [2] - A US official said that the Ukrainian delegation has reached an agreement on the terms of a possible peace deal with the US, with some minor details remaining [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that the economy needs significant interest rate cuts and hopes employment data will convince other Fed members to do so. The Fed should quickly lower interest rates to a neutral level [2] - US private-sector employers cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, an acceleration from the previous week's data showing a loss of 2,500 jobs per week [2] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are lithium carbonate, corn, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials rose 3.16%, precious metals 29.30%, oilseeds 9.90%, non-ferrous metals 22.26%, soft commodities 2.87%, coal, coking, and steel ore 12.79%, energy 3.06%, chemicals 11.08%, grains 1.42%, and agricultural and sideline products 4.16% [3] Plate Holdings - The chart shows the five-day changes in commodity futures plate holdings from November 19 to November 25, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% daily, -2.14% monthly, and 15.46% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.69% daily, -0.05% monthly, and 29.09% annually [5] - In the fixed-income category, the 10-year Treasury futures fell 0.08% daily, -0.42% monthly, and -0.65% annually [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index fell 0.54% daily, -2.69% monthly, and -0.79% annually; London spot gold fell 0.07% daily, rose 3.23% monthly, and 57.46% annually [5] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index fell 0.39% daily, rose 0.08% monthly, and fell 7.99% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, rose 17.66% monthly, and 18.27% annually [5] Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and more [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示成品油库存超预期增加，但由 于净出口增加，美国原油去库幅度超预期，整体油品库存转而小幅减少。美国原油产量位于历史最 高位附近。美国财政部外国资产控制办公室称，近十几个主要的印度买家表示打算暂停购买俄罗斯 12月份交付的石油。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭击，俄罗斯梁赞炼油厂暂停原油加工，欧洲柴油裂解价 差持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，美官员称美国将对委内 瑞拉开展新行动。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中 断担忧。但消费旺季结束、美国10月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第八个月萎缩，美国降息前景 不明朗，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产，中东地区出口增加，原油仍是供应过剩格局。随着欧 佩克将2025 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, with the production rate falling 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November decreased by 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. The downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the overall demand was weak. With the influence of factors such as crude oil price decline, it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in November was 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons month - on - month (16.9%) and 27.4 million tons year - on - year (11.0%). This week, some refineries will stably produce asphalt, and the production rate will increase [1]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream industry's production rate was mixed last week. The road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the subsequent demand will further weaken. The project increment in the south is limited, and the overall demand is flat [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - **Price**: Crude oil prices fell. The basis of asphalt in Shandong remained at a neutral level, and the market was cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 1.19% to 3068 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3045 yuan/ton, the highest was 3074 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 7249 to 153,792 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 38 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Some refineries such as Sinochem Quanzhou and Yunnan Petrochemical stopped producing asphalt. The asphalt production rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, 7.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - **Demand - related Data**: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. As of the week of November 21, the downstream industry's production rate was mixed, and the road asphalt production rate remained flat at 34% due to capital and weather constraints. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% compared with the week of November 14, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍 偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比 降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积 环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率 同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30 万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装置也大多通过技改 升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。 ...