Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The night - session of domestic futures on Friday saw most contracts decline, with significant drops in coking coal, coke, etc. International markets also showed weakness in various commodities such as precious metals, oil, and base metals [2][3][4]. - In the financial market, the A - share market has shown positive trends, and the capital market is making efforts in research and development. The fixed - increase market in A - shares has entered a new stage of "quantity and quality improvement" [38][41]. - In the industrial field, the government attaches great importance to the development of the artificial intelligence industry, and the domestic chip industry is expected to have a good development this year [42]. - Overseas, there are new developments in trade agreements between the US and the EU, and there are also various diplomatic and economic issues among countries [47][50]. Summaries by Directory Overnight Night - session Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures contracts on Friday night closed lower, with coking coal and coke down over 7%, soda ash and glass down over 6%, and caustic soda down over 4% [2]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures fell 0.97% to $3338.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.44% to $38.325 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: US crude oil futures fell 1.65% to $65.07 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures fell 1.36% to $67.60 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: All LME base metals closed lower, with LME copper down 0.59% to $9796 per ton, LME zinc down 0.40% to $2829 per ton, and LME nickel down 1.33% to $15265 per ton [5]. - International agricultural products: Most international agricultural product futures declined slightly, except for US wheat which rose 0.46% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Shipping indices: As of July 25, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 54.31 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Index fell 3.2% [9]. - Fiscal revenue: In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 11.5566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue decreased by 1.2%, while non - tax revenue increased by 3.7% [9]. - Capital market risk prevention: The CSRC aims to prevent risks in key areas of the capital market, including resolving real - estate bond default risks and cracking down on illegal activities [9]. - Industrial profits: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The mining industry's profit decreased by 30.3%, while the power and other industries' profit increased by 3.3% [9]. - International news: Trump hopes to maintain the nuclear - arms limitation agreement, a US business delegation will visit China, and the US and the EU have reached a trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods [10][11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Regulatory approval: The CSRC has approved the registration of monthly average price futures for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [15]. - OPEC + meeting: The OPEC + JMMC meeting on Monday is not expected to adjust the current production - increase plan, with 8 members set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day starting in August [15]. Metal Futures - Trading restrictions: From July 28, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted in their daily opening positions in the lithium carbonate futures LC2509 contract [17]. - Product development: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of platinum, palladium, and lithium hydroxide futures, as well as photovoltaic module futures [17]. - Inventory changes: Last week, copper inventory in the SHFE decreased by 11,133 tons, while aluminum, zinc, and other metals' inventories increased [21]. - Market sentiment: Before the US - EU trade negotiation progress, fund managers increased their bullish bets on gold, with net long positions increasing by 19% to 170,868 contracts [22]. Black - Series Futures - Trading restrictions: From July 29, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted in their daily opening positions in coking coal futures contracts [24]. - Industry consensus: Manganese - series alloy production enterprises aim to achieve energy - saving and emission - reduction targets, and have increased manganese ore reserves [24]. - Supply disruption: Ghana's manganese ore shipments have been affected by the rainy season, with significant decreases from May to July [25]. - Industry data: Steel mill data shows changes in blast furnace operating rates, iron ore inventories, and steel prices [26][28]. Agricultural Product Futures - Palm oil exports: Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 decreased compared to the previous month, with a decline of 15.22% according to Amspec and 9.2% according to ITS [31][32]. - Pig farming: As of July 25, self - breeding and self - raising pig farming had a profit of 62.16 yuan per head, while purchasing piglets for farming had a loss of 71.39 yuan per head [32]. - Agricultural product sales: US private exporters reported sales of corn and soybeans to Mexico and South Korea [33]. - Policy support: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other departments issued a plan to promote agricultural product consumption [35]. Financial Market Finance - Capital market research: The China Capital Market Society was established, aiming to become an important research base for the capital market [37]. - A - share market: The A - share market has reached new highs this year. The market may see a full - scale bull market depending on fundamental improvements, and the ChiNext board may have a catch - up rally [37][38]. - Banking and investment: A - share listed banks have implemented cash dividends, and the private placement market in A - shares has entered a new stage [40][41]. Industry - AI development: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission attaches great importance to the development of the artificial intelligence industry [42]. - Chip industry: With the rapid growth of domestic computing power consumption, the domestic chip industry is expected to have a good development this year [42]. - AI application: China can accelerate the application of artificial intelligence in industries and enhance self - controllability [44]. - Film industry: On July 27, the mainland film box office exceeded 300 million yuan, breaking the 300 - million - yuan mark for the first time in 153 days [46]. Overseas - Trade agreement: The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, but the European Parliament is dissatisfied with it [47][50]. - Diplomatic issues: There are diplomatic issues such as the US - Russia relationship, US - South Korea trade negotiations, and the discovery of drones at a Japanese nuclear power plant [50][51]. International Stock Markets - US stock market: The margin account borrowing balance of US stock investors has exceeded $1 trillion, and there is a risk of a stock market bubble [52]. - European market: After the US - EU trade agreement, the European market rose slightly, and the market's attention will turn to Canada and Mexico [52][54]. Commodities - Futures development: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of multiple futures products and accelerating the research of power futures [55]. - Silver investment: As silver prices rise, more individuals are investing in silver, but there are risks [55]. - Coking coal futures: Coking coal futures, which had a sharp increase, have cooled down after risk warnings and position limits [55]. Bonds - Bond funds: More than half of bond funds had negative performance in July, but there are still trading opportunities in the bond market [56]. Scheduled Events - Economic data releases: Various economic data such as China's Hong Kong trade balance, UK CBI retail sales, etc., will be released at specific times [62]. - News conferences: There will be multiple news conferences on topics such as tax reform, environmental protection, and medical reform [64]. - Trade negotiation: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30 [64]. - New stock subscription: Tianfulong will be available for subscription [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the "anti - involution" market has been the main macro - logical line in the market. With the approaching of the Political Bureau meeting, investors need to be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market. Although there are expectations of a new round of supply - side reform, market differences are more prominent due to concerns about the global economic slowdown and the difficulty of strong demand - boosting policies during the economic transformation period. Additionally, the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may affect the capital market [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market has dominated the market. The A - share market has approached 3600 points, and commodities show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, with hot spots constantly spreading. However, recent market fluctuations have been intense, and some varieties have seen excessive increases [1]. Market Analysis - The current commodity market started at the end of June and early July, based on low - valued absolute prices and driven by the "anti - involution" concept, potentially evolving into a new round of supply - side reform market. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and the upcoming release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's ten - industry stable - growth plan have strengthened the market's policy expectations [2]. - There are three main investment opportunity lines from supply shocks in the second half of the year: "anti - involution" supply - side reform, supply disruptions caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and abnormal weather. But due to weak global demand, the upward trend will be a pulsed, phased, and structural market [2]. Market Characteristics - New energy varieties lead the way, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate taking turns to drive the market [2]. - The black building materials sector acts as the rear guard. Core varieties such as coking coal and glass have seen excessive increases and rapid growth rates. For example, from June 2025 to the present, coking coal has increased by 68.58%, and glass by 35.27% [2][5]. - The hot - spot varieties rotate and spread rapidly, from new - energy non - ferrous metals to black building materials, and then to lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. The leading varieties, coking coal and glass, have significantly higher increases and growth rates than historical markets [6]. Risks and Suggestions - Multiple exchanges have issued risk alerts due to the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market and excessive increases in some varieties. As the important meeting approaches, policy games will face real - world tests. The repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may also impact the capital market. Investors should be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market [9].

制作日期：2025年7月25日 【策略分析】 【冠通研究】 沥青：高开震荡 区间操作 基差方面： 山东地区主流市场价上涨至3850元/吨，沥青09合约基差下跌至235元/吨，处于偏高水平。 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落4.0个百分点至28.8%，较去年同期高了4.0个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，7月份国内沥青预计排产254.2万吨，环 比增加14.4万吨，增幅为6.0%，同比增加48.5万吨，增幅为23.6%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率多 数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨2个百分点至27.0%，只是仍处于近年同期偏低水平，受到资金 和降雨高温制约。本周，华北地区集中交付前期合同，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加8.03% 至26.9万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比转而回落，仍处于近年来同期的最 低位。美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将增加沥青原料供给。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪 缓解，只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去，近期原油价格震荡，工信部提到新一轮十大重点行业 （包括石化、建材等）稳增长工作方案近期将陆续发布，摸底石化、化工老装置清单，淘汰20 ...

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating Upward" for the PVC industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the PVC industry currently faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand in the real - estate market, and new production capacity coming online, with the upcoming release of a new round of ten key industries' stable - growth work plans and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is expected that PVC will oscillate strongly in the near term, and the report suggests going long on dips or conducting a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton in some areas. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.62 percentage points to 77.59%, reaching a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is still low compared to previous years, and procurement is cautious. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025, and Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has raised its July quotation by 10 - 25 US dollars/ton. Recent export orders are average, but India's delay in announcing anti - dumping duties until September 25 may stimulate Chinese PVC exports. Social inventory continues to increase and is still high. From January to June 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has continued to decline and is at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and the PVC operating rate increased last week. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been in trial production, and the support of calcium carbide prices is weak. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure. However, with the upcoming release of relevant policies and coal price increases, the market sentiment has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract increased in position and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 5226 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5391 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 5373 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, a rise of 3.19%. The position increased by 28,479 lots to 860,317 lots [2] Basis - On July 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 5075 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the V2509 contract futures was 5373 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 298 yuan/ton, weakening by 70 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some devices such as Erdos Chlor - Alkali and Yidongdongxing have entered maintenance, and the PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.80 percentage points to 76.79%, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. In July, the 400,000 - ton/year Tianjin Bohua and 500,000 - ton/year Wanhua Chemical have been in trial production. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to June 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 3.7%. The commercial housing sales volume was 442.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 3.7%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0%; the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises' houses was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%. The completion area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%; the completion area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%. The overall improvement of the real - estate market still takes time [4] Inventory - As of the week of July 20, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.27% week - on - week and was still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. As of the week of July 24, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 683,400 tons, 28.23% less than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [5]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current fundamentals of the urea market remain loose, with downstream demand providing rigid support. Although the anti - involution sentiment has slightly cooled, the market still shows resilience. In the short term, it is advisable to adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [1] Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed higher, with a gain of over 1% at the end of the session. However, upstream factory quotes declined, and the spot market sentiment has subsided. This week, more upstream urea factories are under maintenance, and the daily urea production has remained below 200,000 tons. The supply - demand situation remains loose. Domestic demand is weak, and the downstream trading sentiment is cold. As it gradually enters the agricultural demand gap period, the key to future demand support lies in the raw material procurement of compound fertilizer factories in the industrial sector. In the short term, the procurement sentiment during the pre - sale period of autumn fertilizers is cautious, and demand is elastic. As the operating load continues to rise, the urea market is expected to receive rigid demand support. Due to the weakening domestic demand, although there is support from export cargo collection, the de - stocking rate of urea factory inventories has slowed down, and the inventories in the main delivery areas have increased, indicating weak terminal demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,786 yuan/ton, rose throughout the session, and finally closed at 1,803 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.18%. The trading volume was 171,609 lots, a decrease of 2,182 lots. Among the top 20 main trading seats, long positions decreased by 378 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,348 lots. Haitong Futures' net long positions increased by 774 lots, and Yong'an Futures' net long positions decreased by 855 lots. Galaxy Futures' net short positions increased by 2,467 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net short positions decreased by 2,709 lots [2] Spot - Upstream factory quotes declined. Although the futures market continued to rise, the spot market sentiment has subsided. The ex - factory prices of small - granular urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei have been adjusted down to 1,730 - 1,780 yuan/ton [5] Warehouse Receipts - On July 25, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,523, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes declined, while the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong Province, the basis for the September contract weakened compared to the previous trading day, reaching 7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [9] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on July 25, 2025, the national daily urea production was 197,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.09% [12]

【冠通研究】 关注宏观情绪变化 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 25 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开低走承压运行，何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸 会谈，中美谈判预期目前偏乐观，但不排除谈判推迟可能性。下周将迎来 50%关税的落 地期限，落地情况可能干扰市场波动幅度 供给方面，截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，现货粗炼 费为-43.16 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.31 美分/磅。冶炼厂粗炼费、精炼费本周均企 稳回升，7 月一家冶炼企业有检修计划，涉及精炼产能 15 万吨，对精炼铜产量影响有 限。SMM 预计 7 月国内电解铜产量环比增加 1.55 万吨，升幅为 1.37%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。 下游处于相对淡季，虽价格下跌后报价升水走强，但交投情绪依然偏弱，终端工业产品 如空调等均环比产量减少，下游按需跟进，市场观望情绪浓厚，上期所库存去化，终端 需求依然有韧性。综合来看，下周市场将迎来中美贸易谈判及关税的落地期限，宏观干 扰下，行情不确定性高，基本面库存低位支撑价格行情 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 25 日 热点品种 碳酸锂： 碳酸锂今日高开高走，触及涨停。电池级碳酸锂均价 7.29 万元/吨，环比上一工 作日上涨 2350 元/吨；工业级碳酸锂均价 7.07 万元/吨，环比上一工作日上涨 1800 元/吨。基本面上，反内卷举措继续发酵，江西锂矿产能产量受限问题点燃 市场行情，市场对后市的供应持偏紧预期，碳酸锂周度产能利用率为 62.7%，较 上周增加，6 月产量为 7.4 万吨，环比增长 8%，同比增幅达 18%。目前库存端压 力有消化，但依然处于高位状态。锂辉石价格继续报价上移，成本端支撑上行逻 辑。碳酸锂现货价格连日上行，下游高价接受度低，终端交投情绪冷淡，昨日逢 低补库后，近期拿货意愿弱。消息面上，除江西锂矿限产外，近期反内卷持续发 酵，有色金属受反内卷影响大，7 月 19 日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工， 项目总投资约 1.2 万亿，投资规模是三峡水电站的 5 倍，建设周期约 20 年。整 体来看，反内卷举措持续发酵推涨碳酸 ...

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Report Summary 1. Hot News - On July 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations with a one - year term [2] - As of now, the central budget investment in 2025 has been basically allocated, supporting various fields such as modern industrial system and infrastructure [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will accelerate the research and listing of power futures [2] - The EU has a 93 - billion - euro anti - tariff plan against the US, India aims to reach trade agreements with the US and has signed one with the UK [2] - Trump asked Powell to cut interest rates, and Trump's ally sued Powell to require FOMC to hold public meetings [3] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, glass, coke, ethylene glycol, and pulp [4] 3. Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.54%, precious metals 28.82%, oilseeds 12.19%, non - ferrous metals 2.90%, soft commodities 19.60%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.93%, energy 3.22%, chemicals 11.79%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.88% [4] 4. Major Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 0.07%, and the Hang Seng Index 0.51% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures declined [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.17%, WTI crude oil 1.46%, and London spot gold fell 0.55% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.29%, and the CBOE volatility remained unchanged [6]

资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周四夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，玻璃涨超 6%，焦煤涨超 5%， 纯碱涨超 4%，氧化铝、20 号胶、乙二醇涨超 2%。跌幅方面，铁矿石跌超 1%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.77%报 3371.3 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.55%报 39.285 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价小幅走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.39%，报 66.16 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.96%，报 68.48 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.77%报 9854.50 美元/吨，LME 期 锌跌 0.75%报 2840.50 美元/吨，LME 期镍跌 0.66%报 15470.00 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货多数上涨，美大豆涨 0.15%，美玉米涨 0.82%，美豆油涨 0.93%，美豆粕跌 0.80%，美小麦涨 0.23%。 投资有风险， ...