【冠通研究】 内需偏弱 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 1 日 【期现行情】 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1707 元/吨低开低走尾盘拉涨，最终收于 1721 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.35%，持仓量 238027 手（+14327 手）。前二十名 主力持仓席位来看，多头+10790 手，空头+8663 手。其中，东证期货净多单增加 3577 手、安粮期货净多单增加 868 手；银河期货净空单增加 3231 手，方正中期 净空单减少 2502 手。 2025 年 7 月 1 日，尿素仓单数量 500 张，环比上个交易日持平。 今日尿素盘面低开低走，日内承压运行，尾盘拉涨翻红。内需偏弱，下游 拿货情绪不足，上游工厂报价多稳中下滑。基本面来看，供应端本周继续检修 与复产并行，山西兰花将进行两月左右的检修，日产波动幅度小，上游工厂继 续港口发运，出口集港缓解上游压力，预计出口企业厂内库存继续去化。需求 端，下游农需拿货意愿降低，供应商及复合肥工厂拿货均减少，复合肥工厂开 工负荷继续流畅去化，虽工厂成品库存流动增加，但预计开工率短期不会大幅 提升，秋季备肥依然处于前期，工厂采购零星拿货为主 ...

【冠通研究】 易涨难跌 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 1 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7，新订单指 数回升至扩张区 16040 间，非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在缩减与外国 达成全面对等协议的雄心，寻求达成范围更小的协议，以避免美国重新征收关税。伊朗 驻联合国大使强势表态：铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利，永远不会停止！基本面来看， 供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全 球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去 化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，截至截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需 求增加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下 游也多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下 房地 ...

地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/01 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价全线下跌，美油主力合约收跌 0.84%，报 64.97 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 0.25%，报 66.63 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.83%报 3315.00 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.11%报 36.33 美元/盎司。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME 期锌跌 1.37%报 2741.00 美元/吨，LME 期镍跌 0.79%报 15125.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜持平报 9878.00 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大豆期货涨 0.27%报 1027.50 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 0.61%报 409.00 美分/蒲式耳，小 麦期货跌 0.60%报 537.50 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内期货主力合约有涨有跌。纯碱、玻璃跌超 2%，焦煤、烧碱跌近 2%，聚 氯乙烯（PVC）跌超 1%。涨幅方面，短纤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including expectations of an oscillating adjustment for soybean meal futures, a decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks for crude oil with a suggestion to cautiously buy bearish options, and a slow rise in copper prices with opportunities to go long at low prices. It also provides trend analyses and operation suggestions for other varieties such as asphalt, PP, and more [3][5][10]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 09 - contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing with a 0.78% increase. In the US, the proportion of soybean crops in drought - affected areas decreased, and favorable weather is expected. In China, the soybean crushing volume reached a record high last week, and the expected volume this week remains high. The market is supported by increased import costs but has limited upward momentum, likely to oscillate [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention and subsequent cease - fire between Iran and Israel, Middle - East geopolitical risks have significantly decreased, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. With seasonal demand and supply - demand improvements, it is recommended to cautiously buy bearish options [5]. Copper - The copper market is currently oscillating strongly. Fed rate - cut uncertainty supports non - ferrous metals. China's copper production is high but may decline later. Demand has weakened marginally but remains resilient. Global inventories are decreasing, and copper prices are expected to rise slowly in oscillations [10]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high, oscillated, and closed lower. Supply is sufficient, and the price is approaching the cost line. Downstream demand is mainly for essential needs, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply is increasing, and downstream demand is mixed. The Middle - East geopolitical risk has decreased, and the price has fallen. The basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13][15]. PP - PP downstream and enterprise operating rates are low. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure is high. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic operating rates have increased, but downstream demand is weak. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure remains. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply and demand are both weak. Inventory is high, and the market is affected by factors such as the Indian policy and coal prices. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 09 - contract oscillated after a slight decline. The US soybean weather is favorable, and China's soybean crushing volume is high. The market lacks external guidance and is expected to oscillate within a range [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. The market is expected to return to a loose state, and short - selling opportunities at high prices should be watched [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose slightly. Supply has decreased, and demand is seasonally weak. Macro - level expectations provide support, but continuous price increases face pressure, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices oscillated slightly higher. Supply is stable, and demand is seasonally weak but supported by macro - level expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Inventory has decreased due to port shipments. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in the manufacturing boom level [2]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the non - manufacturing sector generally continued to expand [3]. - The composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.2% (up 0.5 percentage points), medium - sized enterprises' was 48.6% (up 1.1 percentage points), and small enterprises' was 47.3% (down 2.0 percentage points) [2]. - **Sub - indices**: Among the 5 sub - indices, the production index (51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points), new order index (50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points), and supplier delivery time index (50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points) were above the critical point. The raw material inventory index (48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points) and the employment index (47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points) were below the critical point [2]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The non - manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 52.8% (up 1.8 percentage points), and the service business activity index was 50.1% (down 0.1 percentage points) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - boom range (above 55.0%), while retail, transportation, and real estate industries were below the critical point [3]. Composite PMI Output Index - In June, the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [4].

早盘速递 2025/6/30 热点资讯 1、央行货币政策委员会召开二季度例会，建议加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内 外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。会议指出，要加大存量商品房和存量土地盘活力度， 持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 2、国家统计局公布数据，1-5月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额2.72万亿元，同比下降1.1%，主要是受有效需求不足 、工业品价格下降及短期因素波动等多重因素影响。5月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降9.1%。 3、财政部公布，1-5月，国有企业营业总收入32.81万亿元，同比下降0.1%。利润总额1.65万亿元，同比下降2.8%。5月末，国 有企业资产负债率65.1%，同比上升0.2个百分点。 5、大商所发布通知，纯苯期货自7月8日（周二）起上市交易，涨跌停板幅度为上一交易日结算价的7%，新合约上市首日涨跌停 板幅度为挂牌基准价的14%；交易保证金为8%。纯苯期权自7月8日晚上21:00起上市交易。 重点关注 尿素、碳酸锂、焦煤、豆粕、原油 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.61% 贵金属, 28.39% ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.85%报 3286.10 美元/盎司， 本周累计下跌 2.94%，COMEX 白银期货跌 2.06%报 36.17 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价微跌，美油主力合约收跌 0.26%报 65.07 美元/桶，周跌 11.88%。 布油主力合约跌 0.52%报 66.34 美元/桶，周跌 12.11%。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌参半，LME 期铜跌 0.21%报 9879.00 美元/吨，周累计 上涨 2.55%；LME 期锡跌 0.55%报 33565.00 美元/吨，周累计上涨 2.7%；LME 期 铝涨 0.45%报 2595.00 美元/吨，周累计上涨 1.78%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大豆期货涨 0.86%报 1025.25 美分 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 27 日 热点品种 焦煤： 焦煤今日高开高走，日内日上涨近 5%。现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报 价 930 元/吨，较上个交易日-10 元/吨；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 724/吨，较上个 交易日+5 元/吨。基本面来看，俄罗斯乌海、山西等地受环保安全检查的影响， 供应端减量，数据来看，近期上游洗煤厂及矿山精煤产量下降，安全月后减产消 息频发，焦煤减产减轻了焦煤供需宽松的压力。需求端相对供应压力的缓解来说 表现较弱，焦炭四轮提降后，焦企利润降低开工率下移，本期铁水产量增加，钢 厂自用的情况下，焦炭的生产暂未收到太大的影响。终端在高温下开工率维持低 位，房地产仍然等待政策的托举。整体来看，前期价格长期阴跌后，市场情绪被 蒙煤事宜点燃，空头力量减弱，近期安全月多发检修，支撑盘面上行逻辑，但终 端需求不足依然是拖累，基本面宽松，后续关注逢高空机会。 原油： 在美军介入打击伊朗核设施后，市场关注伊朗的报复行动引发中东地缘风险进一 步加大。然后特朗 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨 0.46%，报 65.22 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.41%，报 66.70 美元/桶。美国原油库存超预期下降支撑油价， 但中东局势缓和限制涨幅。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3341.6 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.22%报 36.55 美元/盎司。美联储内部对降息时机存在 分歧，特朗普政府考虑提前宣布鲍威尔继任人选，引发对美联储独立性的担忧。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.42%报 2770.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铜涨 1.89%报 9896.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 1.86%报 33810.00 美元/吨。美联储 降息预期升温提振金属价格，铜市场表现尤为强劲。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险 ...

4. 马士基周四晚间表示，根据近期的发展情况，并考虑到目前已达成的停火协议，我们预计一旦确认安全风险降低，就有望 重新开启出口货物的接收。阿什杜德港口的运营仍在继续，尽管我们正密切关注局势。 5. 据CNN报道，四位知情人士透露，特朗普政府已讨论可能帮助伊朗获取至多300亿美元资金用于建设民用核能项目、放宽制 裁并解冻数十亿美元被限制的伊朗资金——这些均是其为促使德黑兰重返谈判桌而加大努力的一部分。 早盘速递 2025/6/27 热点资讯 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》。《实施方案》明确，未 来五年基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系，普惠金融促进共同富裕迈上新台阶。普惠金融服务体系持续优化，普惠信贷体系巩 固完善，普惠保险体系逐步健全。 2. 国家发展改革委召开6月份新闻发布会。会上，国家发展改革委政研室副主任李超表示，消费品以旧换新方面，超长期特别 国债的支持力度是3000亿元，前两批一共1620亿元，已经按照计划分别在今年1月份和4月份下达。并将在7月份下达今年第三 批消费品以旧换新资金。 3. 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表视频讲话指出，美国袭击了核设施 ...