1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - The current mainstream market prices in Hebei, Henan, and Heilongjiang are 1750 yuan/ton, 1740 yuan/ton, and 1780 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous value [1] - The current mainstream market prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1760 yuan/ton, and have increased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] - The factory prices in Hebei Dongguang and Anhui Haoyuan are 1740 yuan/ton and 1730 yuan/ton respectively, increasing by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] - The factory prices of Shandong Hualu and Jiangsu Linggu are 1730 yuan/ton and 1800 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous value [1] Basis - The current basis of Shandong 05 and Hebei 05 are -29 yuan/ton, decreasing by 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] - The current basis of Shandong 01 and Hebei 01 are 0 yuan/ton, decreasing by 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] Monthly Spread - The current 1 - 5 spread is 29 yuan/ton, increasing by 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] - The current 5 - 9 spread is 29 yuan/ton, increasing by 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current total number of warehouse receipts is 13,274, decreasing by 40 compared to the previous value [1] International Quotes - The current FOB prices in the Middle East, the US Gulf, Egypt, and the Baltic are 411.5 dollars/ton, 406.5 dollars/ton, 452.5 dollars/ton, and 395 dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous value [1] - The current CFR price in Brazil is 427.5 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous value [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. Although there is an expectation of further contraction in supply due to long - term losses in glass production lines and cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, the real - estate demand has not improved, and the decline in off - season demand may exceed the supply contraction. The market sentiment has strengthened, leading to a rebound in the market, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level, as well as macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band contracted, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure was near the middle line of the Bollinger Band, and the support was near the lower line. The trading volume increased by 17,568 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 18,652 lots. The intraday high was 1070, the low was 1051, and the closing price was 1064, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market was stable, with manufacturers having decent sales and downstream purchases being rational; in East China, the market was dull with mainly rigid - demand purchases, and some manufacturers offered discounts, with a general trading atmosphere; in Central China, there were few changes, with cautious purchases and stable prices; in South China, overall transactions were good, and some prices were increased [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1010, and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry's average opening rate was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - tapping or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day from the previous period. This week, the downstream's purchasing sentiment was average, and some areas were affected by the weather with weak sales, resulting in an overall inventory increase [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approached, the deep - processing orders in the north and south regions showed different trends. The executable days of southern orders increased slightly, and some orders could last for more than 20 days, while the orders in the northern and central regions declined [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further supply contraction. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data is still deteriorating, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there is still an expectation of cold - repair for a few production lines, the supply contraction may not be able to offset the decline in off - season demand. The anti - involution sentiment has strengthened, leading to a market rebound. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The coking coal market showed a pattern of opening high and rising during the day. Although the inventory replenishment process for winter storage has slowed down, the downstream hot metal production has increased slightly. With a mild macro - environment, coking coal made up for the price increase today. However, there is no fundamental positive factor, and the subsequent safety and environmental protection efforts at the coal mine end will affect the market trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and rose during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has been high in recent days, reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines in China was 89.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. The daily average output of raw coal reached 1.9944 million tons. The inventory of coking coal mines has started to accumulate, with a week - on - week increase of 19,800 tons. The inventory replenishment process for winter storage has slowed down, especially the inventory accumulation rhythm of steel mills is slow. The downstream hot metal production increased by 0.04% month - on - month, with a daily average output of 228,100 tons. In the winter storage period, it is expected that the procurement of raw materials will still increase [1]. b) Spot Data - In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was quoted at 1,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1,015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,157 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. c) Fundamental Tracking - From January 17th to January 23rd, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 89.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.86 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coking coal was 77,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,600 tons. The daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 63,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons [3][5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Group 2: Core View - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, while the demand is resilient. The overall supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling supports the current demand, the social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. The overall inventory risk is gradually improving, but it is still relatively high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The supply - demand tight balance and inventory reduction support the price. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, it has stood firm on the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, maintaining a bullish view [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The hot - rolled coil futures main contract increased its open interest by 33,977 lots on Friday, with a trading volume of 304,877 lots. Compared with the previous trading day, the volume increased. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan. It oscillated with an upward bias during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages. If it stands firm, the probability of continued strength in the short and medium - term is relatively high. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan, or 0.52% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is - 15 yuan, and the futures are slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline reflects that the steel mill's production capacity release has converged, which may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, and supports the price [3] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. The demand decreased slightly month - on - month but maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supported the demand, and the overall demand was resilient [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase reflects that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, and the overall risk is controllable [3] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as furnace material [5] - **Bearish factors**: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore fundamentals show that the new shipments on the supply side are gradually decreasing, the rigid demand on the demand side is relatively stable, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure + positive basis with a futures discount, showing a certain resistance to decline in the short - term. The overall downside space of the market is limited, and the recent trend is slightly stronger in a volatile manner [5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main iron ore futures contract strengthened during the day, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or +1.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 229,000 lots, the open interest was 569,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.949 billion yuan. The futures stopped falling and rebounded near the predicted support level of 780, and will continue to rebound in a volatile and slightly stronger manner in the short - term [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose by +5 to 802, and Super Special powder rose by +5 to 680. The swap main contract was at 104.65 (+1) US dollars/ton. Both spot and swap prices rebounded [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 836.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 41.8 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, which is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and is in a volatile and slightly stronger state [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with significant decreases in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather [2] - Demand: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was relatively stable, and steel mills were in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory under berthing increased, and steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still building up [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: According to the December Federal Reserve Beige Book and the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the December CPI year - on - year dropped to 2.7%, the core CPI month - on - month was 0.2% lower than expected, and the weakening of commodity prices indicated that the tariff transmission had reached its peak. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, with the high - income group maintaining resilience and the low - income group becoming more price - sensitive. Attention should be paid to the upcoming GDP and inflation data [4] - Domestic: In 2025, the domestic consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% (1.7 percentage points faster than commodity retail), and its proportion in the overall retail increased. The final consumption contributed 52% to economic growth (a 5 - percentage - point increase). Service consumption was vibrant, with double - digit growth in retail sales in cultural and tourism fields, and movie box office increased by more than 20%. New - type consumption was active, with online retail sales increasing by 8.6%. Green and silver - haired economies became new growth points. In commodity consumption, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, furniture, and household appliances increased by double - digits. In 2026, consumption upgrading, policy effectiveness, and a better environment will support the stable growth of consumption [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened low and rose within the day, but the impact of supply - related concerns on copper prices was small, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - Although the new energy market in the terminal showed poor performance in the short - term, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The profit of smelters has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has weakened. Five smelters plan to stop production in January, and one new smelter's commissioning has been postponed, leading to an expected decline in refined copper production this month [1]. - The downstream copper procurement sentiment is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales volume of the new energy market was 117,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 38% compared to the same period in 2025 and a significant decline of 67% compared to the same period in December 2025 [1]. - The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has forced the mine to stop production. The mine was estimated to produce 29,000 - 32,000 tons of cathode copper in 2025 [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and rose within the day [3]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 135 yuan/ton. On January 22, 2026, the LME official price was 12,686 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 54 US dollars/ton [3]. Supply - side - As of January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.80 US cents/pound [8]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 146,800 tons, an increase of 3,620 tons from the previous period. As of January 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 106,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 168,300 tons, an increase of 8,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 559,300 short tons, an increase of 4,444 short tons from the previous period [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The urea market shows a narrow - range fluctuation and is overall strong. The supply is stable, and downstream demand is continuous, leading to a bullish trend in the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.行情分析 - Urea opened flat and moved higher today, showing strength during the day. Trading volume improved, but overall activity was not high. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,690 - 1,720 yuan/ton [1][3]. - Multiple data sources show that the daily production of urea is around 200,000 tons. No devices are planned for shutdown and maintenance, and previously shut - down gas - based enterprises are resuming production, with stable supply [1]. - After the weather cleared, agricultural dealers' purchases increased. The purchases in the Su - Wan region and the next round of green - returning top - dressing are short - term demand growth points. The operating load of compound fertilizer continued to rise, expected to be firm in the short term (1 - 2 weeks) and then decline [1]. - With the increase in production, finished product inventories are accumulating, and there is less sinking supply. Other industrial demands are also replenishing stocks before the holiday. This week, inventories continued to decline, mainly due to increased demand in Northeast China, and the downward trend is likely to continue [1]. - The national weather is expected to warm up in about half a month, agricultural demand will gradually start, and there is also an inventory replenishment expectation before the Spring Festival. Downstream demand is continuous, making the futures market bullish [1]. 3.2.期现行情 - **Futures**: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,781 yuan/ton, moved higher during the day, and finally closed at 1,788 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume was 246,360 lots (+4,108 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 469 lots and short positions increased by 4,667 lots. For example, Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of - 2,546 lots, Zhongjin Fortune had a net long position of - 222 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of +1,508 lots, and Galaxy Futures had a net short position of +658 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The trading volume improved, but overall activity was not high. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,690 - 1,720 yuan/ton [3]. - **Warehouse receipts**: On January 23, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,274, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 40 fewer from Hebei Dongguang (factory warehouse) [2]. 3.3.基本面跟踪 - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes remained stable today, while the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the May contract basis at - 48 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [6]. - **Supply**: According to Feiyitong data, on January 23, 2026, the national daily urea production was 204,200 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 83.93% [7].

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 23 日 棉花：国内棉花丰产预期兑现，供应持续宽松，下游棉纱市场平稳运行，棉 纱品种延续分化，纺纱利润被压缩，纺企补库心态谨慎。据 Mysteel 调研显示， 截止至 1 月 22 日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加 6.31%，总库存 47.52 万吨， 其中，山东地区青岛、济南港口及周边仓 41.1 万吨，同比减少 7.35%，江苏地 区张家港港口及周边仓库进口棉库存约 3.48 万吨，其他港口库存约 2.94 万吨。 本周外棉继续到港，以巴西棉为主，市场交易略有放缓，入多出少。下方空间相 对有限，短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：巴西航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 1 月 21 日当周，巴西 港口等待装运食糖的船只数量为 51 艘，此前一周为 48 艘。港口等待装运的食糖 数量为 178.16 万吨，此前一周为 166.29 万吨，环比增加 11.87 万吨，增幅 7.13%。 其中，高等级原糖（VHP）数量为 163.73 万吨。桑托斯港等待出口的食糖数量为 117.13 万吨，帕拉纳瓜港等待出口的食糖数量 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with prices remaining high and stable despite regulatory changes such as grain depots stopping purchases and increased auctions [1]. - The corn market has both support and pressure, with prices staying high and oscillating. It is advisable to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg price surge indicates the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and in a profit - repair phase. Although there are supply - related uncertainties, it is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量marginally compared to H2 2025 [2]. - For the pig market, there is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures. Near - month buying is strong in the short term, while the far - month needs further capacity reduction of sows and存栏 before strengthening expectations, which should be evidenced by continuous reduction before March [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast production area have declined, while high - protein soybean supply is tight with a high - quality, high - price feature. Some areas have 39% protein content commercial beans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The 76,228 - ton two - way domestic purchase and sale of China Grain Reserves Corporation were all sold, showing short - term market support. Market prices remain high and stable despite regulatory changes [1]. Corn - Policy - driven imports and auction sales of corn supplement the market supply, but transactions often have premiums, boosting market sentiment. However, downstream enterprises' low acceptance of high - priced corn may limit price increases [1]. - The corn market has support from strong grassroots price - holding sentiment and downstream rigid restocking demand, but also faces pressure. Future focus is on grassroots selling mentality and policy release intensity [1]. Egg - The sharp rise in egg prices marks the egg - laying chicken farming industry's exit from the trough and profit - repair. But price rebounds have led to hesitation in old - hen culling, and there is a balance between reduced new additions and increased delayed culling in supply [2]. - After the price increase, inventory has emerged, and the market is in a state of indecision. There is a slight decline after the price peak, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量 [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million [2]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig存栏 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. - There is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures, leading to strong near - month buying in the short term. The far - month needs continuous reduction of sows and存栏 before March to strengthen expectations [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage. The supply is affected by refinery production adjustments and raw material supply, and the demand will further slow down due to seasonal factors. The current inventory is at a relatively low level, and the base price is also low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some local refineries in Shandong will stop producing asphalt, and the operating rate will remain low [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the decrease in temperature, the northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, and the southern projects are also entering the final stage [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 23, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Price and Basis**: The price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly, and the basis of the 03 contract rose to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [1][3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.68% to 3236 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3210 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3256 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,693 to 186,664 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply - Side Operating Rate**: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, causing the asphalt operating rate to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - **Investment Data**: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [5]. - **Social Financing Data**: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5].