Group 1: Hot News - Since 2012, China's outbound investment flow has ranked among the top three globally for 13 consecutive years. By the end of 2024, China had established over 50,000 enterprises overseas, spanning 190 countries and regions. The outbound investment stock exceeded $3 trillion, remaining among the top three globally for 8 consecutive years, and its share in global outbound investment increased to 7.2% [2] - In 2025, the total social logistics volume is expected to reach 38 trillion yuan, a growth of about 8 trillion yuan in 5 years. The total revenue of China's logistics industry has been continuously expanding, with an increase of about 400 billion yuan in 5 years. It is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan in 2025, and the market size is expected to rank first in the world for 10 consecutive years [2] - US President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior" in financial affairs. Cook stated that Trump has no right to fire her, and she will not resign. The Fed spokesman said that according to the Federal Reserve Act, Congress stipulates that Fed governors have a long - fixed term, and the president can only remove them "for cause" [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the closing settlement on August 28, the daily price limit for cast aluminum alloy futures contracts will be adjusted to 5%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions to 6%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 7% [3] - The US has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesia's exports of cocoa, palm oil, and rubber from the 19% tariff imposed by Trump since August 7. Once the final agreement is reached, the tariff exemption will take effect immediately, but no timetable has been set as the US is busy with other tariff negotiations [3] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, crude oil, coking coal, industrial silicon, asphalt [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.81%, precious metals 27.29%, oilseeds 12.37%, non - ferrous metals 20.98%, soft commodities 2.55%, coal, coke, steel and ore 14.45%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.13%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.04% [4] Group 3: Large - Class Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.39 | 8.26 | 15.41 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.67 | 6.98 | 10.62 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.37 | 9.25 | 13.16 | | | CSI 500 | 0.18 | 11.85 | 21.63 | | | S&P 500 | 0.41 | 2.00 | 9.93 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.18 | 3.03 | 27.24 | | | German DAX | - 0.50 | 0.36 | 21.32 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.97 | 3.23 | 6.27 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.60 | 1.46 | 13.37 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.06 | - 0.45 | - 0.85 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.04 | - 0.16 | - 0.92 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.05 | - 0.56 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 1.08 | - 0.44 | 0.59 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 2.30 | - 8.54 | - 11.97 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.83 | 3.15 | 29.32 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | 1.97 | 11.56 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.05 | 0.46 | 16.14 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.19 | - 1.81 | - 9.44 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 11.54 | - 14.76 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively covers the overnight performance of domestic and international futures markets, important macro - economic news, and developments in various industries such as finance, energy, metals, and agriculture. It also presents corporate financial reports and upcoming events, offering a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures主力 contracts declined. SC crude oil and coking coal dropped over 2%, while rapeseed meal, fuel oil, etc. fell nearly 2%. PX, 20 - grade rubber, and staple fiber had slight increases [3]. - International oil prices: The U.S. crude oil主力 contract closed down 2.30% at $63.31 per barrel, and Brent crude oil主力 contract dropped 2.15% to $66.75 per barrel [4]. - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce [5]. - London base metals: Most London base metals rose. LME nickel, tin, aluminum, and copper had respective increases of 1.19%, 0.95%, 0.53%, and 0.51% [5]. - International agricultural products: International agricultural futures showed mixed results. U.S. soybeans, soybean meal, and wheat rose by 0.12%, 0.48%, and 0.38% respectively, while U.S. corn and soybean oil dropped by 0.73% and 2.75% [6]. Important News Macroeconomic News - Energy system: China has established a relatively complete energy production, supply, storage, and sales system, with stable energy reserve capacity and enhanced power user response [10]. - Diplomatic news: Regarding the reported meeting of Chinese officials with U.S. counterparts, specific details should be inquired from relevant Chinese departments [10]. - Service trade: The State Council emphasizes promoting institutional opening - up of service trade, strengthening alignment with international high - standard economic and trade rules, and reducing negative lists for cross - border service trade [10]. - Fed news: Trump's administration is considering influencing local Fed policies, and there are personnel changes and power struggles within the Fed [11]. - Trade policies: Trump warns of high furniture tariffs and measures against foreign digital taxes [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Oil price adjustment: On August 26, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively [17]. - Refinery data: Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals in the week ending August 25 increased by 101.07% week - on - week [17]. - Russian oil: Russia increased its August western port crude oil export plan by 200,000 barrels per day, but the plan is uncertain due to attacks and maintenance [17]. - Indian imports: Indian refiners plan to cut Russian crude oil purchases [17]. Metal Futures - Margin adjustment: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for cast aluminum alloy futures on August 28, 2025 [19]. - Fed rate forecast: Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut rates in September and December 2025 and multiple times in 2026 [19]. - Trade negotiation: Chile's trade negotiation with the U.S. on tariffs is in the final stage, and Chile's cathode copper already enjoys U.S. tariff exemption [22]. Black - Series Futures - Coal market: Yulin coal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high terminal inventories and weak power coal price support [24]. - Steel production: In July 2025, the production of medium - thick plate mills, hot - strip mills, and cold - strip mills in key steel enterprises showed different trends [24]. - Steel plant situation: Tangshan's section steel mills are under production restrictions, with low operating rates and weak sales [25]. Agricultural Futures - Tax exemption: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking tax exemption for crude and refined palm kernel oil [27]. - Palm oil data: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 1.21% compared to the same period last month [30]. - Tariff exemption: The U.S. has agreed in principle to exempt Indonesia's cocoa, palm oil, and rubber from a 19% tariff [30]. - Crop production: Brazil's sugar and cane production forecasts for the 2025/26 season have changed compared to April [30]. - EU imports: As of August 24, 2025, EU imports of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and corn decreased compared to the same period last year [31]. - Inventory data: As of August 26, 2025, China's national soybean oil port inventory increased by 41,000 tons week - on - week [32]. - Brazilian exports: Brazil's August soybean, soybean meal, and corn export forecasts have been adjusted [32]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares: A - shares had a narrow - range shock with mixed performance of the three major indices. The market turnover decreased [35]. - Hong Kong stocks: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indices fell, with different performances of various sectors [35]. - ETF market: China's ETF scale reached 5.07 trillion yuan, and the number of funds is 1,271 [35]. - Mutual funds: As of July 2025, China's public - offering funds' total scale reached 35.08 trillion yuan, with different growth trends for different types [36]. - Foreign capital: From August 14 - 20, 2025, passive and active foreign capital flowed into A - shares [36]. - Corporate dividends: As of August 26, 2025, A - share companies' announced mid - term dividends exceeded 250 billion yuan [39]. - Private funds: Over 60% of 10 - billion - level private funds are close to full - position operations [39]. - Regulatory news: HSBC was fined 4.2 million yuan by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [40]. - Corporate earnings: Shell and Nongfu Spring released their mid - year results [40]. Industry - Oil price: Domestic oil prices were lowered for the seventh time this year [41]. - Logistics: China's logistics industry is expected to reach a total logistics volume of 380 trillion yuan in 2025 [42]. - Real estate: The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development and the central bank issued anti - money - laundering regulations for real estate institutions, and Suzhou relaxed housing transfer restrictions [44]. - Operating system: The new domestic operating system Galaxy Kylin V11 was released [44]. - AI field: China established an "Advanced Storage AI Inference Working Group" [45]. - Mobile market: The global and Chinese folding - screen mobile phone markets are expected to grow [45]. - Tourism: This year's summer tourism demand was strong, with an increase in order prices [45]. Overseas - Trade policies: Trump completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea and plans high furniture tariffs [48]. - Fed personnel: Trump removed Fed governor Lisa Cook, and there are disputes and power arrangements [48]. - Investment news: Japan invested $55 billion in the U.S., and South Korean companies increased their U.S. investments [49]. - Tariff exemption: The U.S. agreed in principle to exempt Indonesia's palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from tariffs [50]. - Postal service: Australia Post suspended most mail services to the U.S. due to tariffs [52]. International Stocks - U.S. stocks: The three major U.S. stock indices rose slightly, with different performances of individual stocks [53]. - European stocks: European major stock indices fell due to political risks in France and Fed personnel changes [53]. - Stock market innovation: The London Stock Exchange was approved to operate a new private stock market [54]. Commodities - Futures adjustment: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted cast aluminum alloy futures' trading rules [55]. - Oil prices: International oil prices fell due to weak inventory data and supply concerns [55]. - Precious metals: International precious metals showed mixed results, with gold rising due to Fed concerns [56]. - Base metals: London base metals mostly rose due to expectations of Fed rate cuts [58]. - Gas imports: South Korea will purchase an additional 3.3 million tons of LNG from the U.S. annually from 2028 [59]. Bonds - Domestic bonds: Domestic inter - bank bond yields generally declined, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [60]. - U.S. bonds: U.S. bond yields showed mixed results, and Trump's actions may affect long - term rates [60]. Foreign Exchange - RMB: The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated, and the central parity rate was adjusted downwards [61]. - Dollar index: The U.S. dollar index fell, and non - U.S. currencies mostly rose [62]. Upcoming Events - Multiple government departments will hold press conferences on August 27, 2025 [69]. - There are industry conferences and product launches scheduled from August 27 - 31, 2025 [69]. - Earnings reports of multiple companies will be released [69]. - A Fed official will give a speech [69]. - The Indian stock market is closed for the Ganesh Chaturthi festival [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the fundamentals remain unchanged, demand is at the end of the off - season, and there is no upward driving force. With short - term large - scale fluctuations being unlikely, it is advisable to focus on range trading [9] - For lithium carbonate, the market is close to the peak season, with demand providing support at the bottom and limited decline. However, it is easily affected by industry news, so cautious operation is recommended [11] - For crude oil, although the price has rebounded, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. It is recommended to sell on rallies [12] - For asphalt, with both supply and demand being weak and the cost - side support strengthening, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [14] - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread [15][16] - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17] - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward due to its own fundamental pressure [19] - For coking coal, the market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals have no significant changes, with the price oscillating at a high level [20] - For urea, it is in a weak consolidation stage. It is advisable to short on rebounds in the short term, and there is support at the bottom [22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 26, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Peanut, log, and 20 - gauge rubber rose slightly. Alumina and coking coal dropped by over 3%, while industrial silicon, container shipping to Europe, coke, and polysilicon dropped by over 2%. Glass, soda ash, and styrene dropped nearly 2%. Among stock index futures, IF dropped 0.22%, IH dropped 0.40%, IC rose 0.17%, and IM dropped 0.10%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.47% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on August 26, in terms of capital inflow in domestic futures main contracts, alumina 2601 had an inflow of 373 million, Shanghai copper 2510 had an inflow of 332 million, and 30 - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 196 million. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.638 billion, CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.034 billion, and CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 3.377 billion [7] Analysis of Specific Varieties Copper - Supply: Codelco adjusted its production target downward. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The sulfuric acid price is high, supporting smelter profits. The production of refined copper is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there may be production cuts in the later third quarter [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with new orders increasing but market trading volume decreasing. The real estate sector is a drag, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience [9] - Inventory: The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short - term demand [9] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Supply: The production from August to September is expected to decline by 15% year - on - year. Yichun Yinli has resumed production, but CATL has not [11] - Demand: After the price correction, downstream purchasing sentiment has been stimulated, and there is support at the bottom [11] Crude Oil - Inventory: EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline has decreased more than expected [12] - Production: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [12] - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September [12] Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the planned production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous month [14] - Demand: Affected by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures, the demand is weak [14] PP - Supply: The new capacity of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly [15] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, but there may be an improvement during the peak season [15] Plastic - Supply: The new capacity of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into operation at the end of July, and the plastic production rate has increased [17] - Demand: The agricultural film is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the raw material replenishment is not strong [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate has decreased, and new capacities are being put into production [18][19] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and the export outlook is not optimistic [18][19] Coking Coal - Supply: The import volume in July increased significantly, and the domestic production has rebounded [20] - Demand: The downstream coke production enthusiasm has improved, but the steel mill profits have weakened [20] Urea - Supply: The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans this week, with production expected to decrease [21] - Demand: The industrial demand has some resilience, but is affected by environmental protection restrictions. The inventory is at a high level [21][22]

【冠通研究】 沪铜震荡运行 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内下挫尾盘翻绿。特朗普签署行政令罢免美联储理事库克， 加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，铜价承压。供给方面，智利国有铜业公司（Codelco） 上调对于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协 订单有盈利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平，支撑冶炼厂利 润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产，预计精铜产 量波动幅度不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方 面，下游需求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，市场成交量环比减少，房地产依然拖 累下游需求，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4%。 但电网及新能源带来需求韧性。上期所库存本周表现为累库，反映了短期内需求疲软， 供需宽松的格局。综合来看，基本面暂无明显变动，需求处于淡季尾端，无向上驱动 力。昨日美联储降息预期升温提振铜行情，今日美 ...

【冠通研究】 弱势整理 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内震荡承压。期现市场均呈现弱势状态，上游工厂降价 吸单后，市场成交氛围未见明显好转，山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂价格范围在 1640-1690 元/吨。基本面来看暂无过分波动，日产维持 19 万 吨左右，本周河南心连心及山西潞安有检修计划，预计本周产量环比上周减 少。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升 高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影响，复合肥工厂出现限产减产情况，开工 负荷略有下调。成品库存近两个月位于五年同期高位水平，目前暂未到秋季肥 高需求阶段，无集中备肥压力；其他工业需求也多受环保限产问题而减产停 车。尿素库存表现为累库，且目前位于近五年高位，大量库存压制行情上涨空 间，市场可流通货源多。整体来说，目前尿素处于弱势整理阶段，目前市场暂 无驱动，前期出口利多已消化，后续印标价格需关注是否超市场预期，短期反 弹沽空，后续秋季备肥及淡储支撑市场，且东北备肥也或将逐渐开始，下方有 支撑，空间相对有限。 【期现行情】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格， ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/08/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周一夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，SC 原油、焦煤涨超 1%，沥青、 低硫燃料油（LU）、焦炭涨近 1%。跌幅方面，玻璃、棕榈油跌近 1%。 3. 国际油价延续上涨，美油主力合约收涨 1.70%，报 64.74 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 1.41%，报 68.17 美元/桶。 4. 国际农产品期货涨跌互现， ...

Group 1: Hot News - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion on promoting green - low - carbon transformation and strengthening the construction of the national carbon market, including supervision of pilot carbon markets, coordination between national and local markets, and expansion of the national market's coverage [2] - As of August 25, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) reported 1990.20 points, down 8.7% from the previous period [2] - On August 25, NDRC Director Zheng Shanjie held a corporate symposium to listen to opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, and stated that the NDRC will improve policies, create a fair market environment, and support enterprises [2] - White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said it is appropriate for the Fed to consider a rate cut, and it will take months to decide on the successor to the Fed Chair [2] - Fed's Logan said there is still room to lower bank system reserves, and the standing repo facility may be re - enabled in September, and the optimal way to communicate the federal funds rate target should be explored [3] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Coking coal, coke, asphalt, glass, palm oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.81%, precious metals 27.14%, oilseeds 12.33%, non - ferrous metals 21.08%, soft commodities 2.58%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.51%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 12.00%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.06% [4] Group 3: Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% daily, 8.69% monthly, and 15.87% annually; S&P 500 fell 0.43% daily, rose 1.58% monthly, and 9.48% annually; etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.27% daily, fell 0.49% monthly, and 0.90% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.15% daily, fell 0.18% monthly, and 0.95% annually; etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index rose 0.57% daily, 0.64% monthly, and 1.68% annually; WTI crude oil rose 1.73% daily, fell 6.44% monthly, and 9.96% annually; etc. [6] - Others: US Dollar Index rose 0.72% daily, fell 1.62% monthly, and 9.27% annually; CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, fell 14.95% monthly, and 18.04% annually [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, influenced by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply - demand balance, and approaching peak seasons [10] - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited as it approaches the peak seasons with demand support, but the market is volatile [12] - Crude oil price rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to short at high prices due to approaching end of peak season and supply - demand changes [13][15] - Asphalt futures are expected to oscillate, affected by cost support and demand constraints [16] - PP is expected to oscillate, with attention on the global trade war and potential policy impacts [17][18] - Plastic is expected to oscillate, considering factors like cost, supply, and approaching peak seasons [19] - PVC is expected to decline with high fundamental pressure and weak demand [20][21] - Caution is advised when chasing the rise of coking coal, mainly affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [22] - Urea's short - term trend is expected to be bearish due to weak supply - demand [23][24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of August 25, most domestic futures main contracts rose, with coking coal up over 6%, fuel oil up over 5%, etc.; some contracts like plywood fell. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed different degrees of increase [6] 3.2 Capital Flow - As of 15:19 on August 25, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 300 2509 and CSI 500 2509, and flowed out of contracts like Shanghai Copper 2509 and Shanghai Tin 2509 [8] 3.3 Core Analysis of Each Variety Copper - Macroeconomic factors support copper prices, but the market is still gambling on the Fed's interest - rate cut. Supply is tight both at home and abroad, and demand is expected to pick up in peak seasons [10] Lithium Carbonate - Production declined in August - September. Supply concerns eased with some restarts, and demand was stimulated after the price correction, with limited decline space [12] Crude Oil - At the end of the peak season, inventory decreased, but supply and demand are expected to weaken in the future due to factors like OPEC+ production increase and global oil surplus adjustment [13] Asphalt - Supply decreased, demand was constrained by factors like weather and funds, and cost support strengthened, leading to oscillating futures [16] PP - Downstream and enterprise开工率 changed, supply increased with new capacity, demand was weak but expected to improve in peak seasons [17][18] Plastic -开工率 increased, demand was generally weak but with signs of improvement in the agricultural film sector, and it is expected to oscillate [19] PVC - Supply was relatively high, demand was weak, exports were expected to decline, and inventory pressure was large, leading to a downward trend [20][21] Coking Coal - Prices rose due to the Fed's dovish signal, with supply increasing and demand affected by factors like steel - mill profits and environmental protection [22] Urea - Supply and demand were both weak, inventory was high, and the short - term trend was bearish [23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market has continued to advance, with risk appetite being optimistic and exuberant. The interest rate cut trading has generally dominated the market, and most risk assets have closed higher. The VIX volatility index has dropped significantly and is operating at a historical low [7]. - Overseas, the resilience of inflation and the turmoil among Fed officials, along with Powell's remarks, have continuously disturbed the interest rate cut expectations. A September interest rate cut is almost certain, and the market has started to focus on the amplitude and speed of subsequent interest rate cuts [7]. - Globally, most major stock markets have closed higher. The US stocks have reached new all - time highs, and the A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. The BDI index has significantly declined, and the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have both dropped. Non - US currencies have generally benefited, and the commodity trends have been divergent [7]. - In China, the "anti - involution" market has cooled down. The weakness of the real - end fundamental data has dampened the optimistic sentiment and the strong expectations of investors. However, the supply - side disturbances in key industries and varieties, and the implementation of relevant "anti - involution" industry policies have still caused ripples in the futures market [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Big - Asset Category - Overseas: Most major global stock markets have closed higher, the US stocks have reached new all - time highs, and the A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. The BDI index has significantly declined, the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index have both dropped, non - US currencies have generally benefited, and commodity trends have been divergent. Oil prices have rebounded, supporting the energy sector and driving relatively strong performance of internationally - priced commodities. The CRB index has closed higher on a weekly basis, and gold and copper have both risen [7][11]. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" market has cooled down. The domestic bond market has declined across the board, with near - term bonds being stronger than long - term bonds. The stock index has generally risen, and the commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with most closing lower. The stock market has a general upward trend, and both growth - style and value - style stock indices have performed strongly, with no obvious style differences. The market has stood above 3800, the market risk appetite has increased, and the trading sentiment has been active. The Wind commodity index has a weekly change of - 0.79%, with 2 out of 10 commodity big - asset category indices closing higher and 8 closing lower [7][11][16]. 2. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has declined across the board, with near - term bonds being stronger than long - term bonds. The stock index has generally risen, and the commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with most closing lower. The stock market has a general upward trend, and both growth - style and value - style stock indices have performed strongly, with no obvious style differences. The market has stood above 3800, the market risk appetite has increased, and the trading sentiment has been active. The domestic commodity big - asset categories have shown mixed performance, with the Wind commodity index having a weekly change of - 0.79%. Among the 10 commodity big - asset category indices, 2 have closed higher and 8 have closed lower, showing an internal - weak and external - strong style characteristic. The agricultural and sideline products sector has dropped significantly by - 4.28%, leading the decline. The coking coal, steel, and ore, and non - metallic building materials sectors have dropped by more than - 2%, followed closely. The energy and non - ferrous sectors have closed higher against the trend, and the other sectors have all closed lower [16]. 3. Fund Flow - Last week, the funds in the domestic commodity futures market have generally flowed out slightly. The agricultural and sideline products, soft commodities, and grain sectors have seen obvious fund inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, coking coal, steel, and ore, energy, oilseeds, non - ferrous, and precious metals sectors have seen obvious fund outflows [19]. 4. Variety Performance - In the past week, most domestic major commodity futures have closed lower. Among the specific commodity futures variety indices, the top - rising commodity futures varieties are TA, staple fiber, and bottle chips, while the top - falling commodity futures varieties are coking coal, ferrosilicon, and soda ash [24]. 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index has slightly increased, while the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and the Nanhua commodity index have both slightly decreased. By sector, the volatilities of the commodity futures big - asset categories have shown mixed performance. The precious metals, coking coal, steel, and ore, and chemical sectors have seen slight volatility declines, while the non - ferrous and agricultural and sideline products sectors have seen the most obvious volatility increases [29]. 6. Data Tracking - Internationally, most major commodities have closed higher, with crude oil, soybeans, and corn rising. The BDI has dropped significantly. The trends of gold and silver have diverged, with the silver price rising and the gold price slightly falling, and the gold - silver ratio has declined [32]. - Domestically, the asphalt operating rate has fluctuated, the real - estate sales have been weakly bottom - seeking, the freight rates have continued to decline, and the short - term capital interest rates have risen first and then fallen, with the center of gravity rising [52]. 7. Macro Logic - The stock index has strongly risen and closed higher significantly, with valuations rising collectively and the risk premium ERP under pressure and falling [36]. - The commodity price index has oscillated higher, inflation expectations have rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality have oscillated [45]. - The US Treasury yields have dropped significantly, with short - term bonds being weaker than long - term bonds. The term structure has a bullish steepening, the term spread has increased, the real interest rate has been under pressure, and the gold price has oscillated at a high level [61]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" has shown resilience. The impact of tariffs on the economy has become initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M US Treasury spread has fluctuated around 0 [70]. 8. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September has first decreased and then increased. There are expectations of further interest rate cuts in October or December, and the probability of a 50 - bp interest rate cut within the year is high. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 bp to 4 - 4.25% in September is 82.9%, a slight decrease compared to 83.4% a week ago, but the probability has shown a trend of first falling and then rising within the week. The probability of further interest rate cuts in October or December is not high, and the probability of two 25 - bp interest rate cuts (50 bp in total) within the year is the highest, at around 47% [79]. 9. Impact of Powell's Speech - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on August 22 has released obvious interest rate cut signals, triggering extensive market attention. After the speech, the three major US stock indices have collectively risen, the trading volume has increased, the US Treasury yields have significantly declined, the US dollar index has rapidly dropped, and the international gold price has significantly increased [88][90]. - The core content of Powell's speech includes an assessment of the current economic challenges and a revision of the monetary policy framework. In terms of economic challenges, the labor market is in a "fragile balance" with rising employment downward risks, economic growth has slowed down, inflation pressure exists, and policy - making faces challenges. In terms of the monetary policy framework, it has abandoned the focus on the effective lower bound (ELB), the average inflation target system (AIT), and the "employment shortfall" wording, and emphasized inflation expectation anchoring, conflict - goal balancing, and other aspects [92][104]. 10. Capital Flow Preference - Due to the weakening of the US dollar and the strong performance of the A - shares, funds are favoring RMB - denominated equity assets. The A - shares have strongly risen, breaking through 3800 and reaching a 10 - year high. Although the short - term market of the commodity futures has cooled down, the internal capital of the commodities has been flowing, and the hot sectors have been switching, always exploring investment opportunities around the "anti - involution" theme [8]. 11. This Week's Focus - A series of economic data releases and events are worth noting this week, including German and US economic data, central bank meetings and speeches, and corporate product launches [125].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The export - related positive sentiment has been mostly digested, while weak domestic demand is dragging down the futures price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to remain bearish in the short term [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, the futures market rose due to the China - India friendly talks, driving up the spot price. In the second half, the market transaction atmosphere was average, and factories generally lowered prices to attract orders, with limited results. Since the weekend, the urea price has shown a fluctuating downward trend, and demand remains weak [4][5]. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price first declined and then rose, showing an overall upward trend but finally falling back. As of August 11, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 18. Last week's trading volume was 2,806.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,781.45 million tons; the open interest was 620.05 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.91 million tons. The futures decline was weaker than the spot decline, and the basis weakened. As of August 25, the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 21 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton. On August 25, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,123, a week - on - week increase of 1,550 [8][9][10]. Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly urea production increased. From August 15 to August 21, the weekly urea production was 1.3611 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0125 billion tons or 0.93%, with an average daily production of 0.1944 billion tons. Among them, coal - based weekly production was 1.072 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.23%; gas - based weekly production was 0.2891 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17%. In the next cycle, it is expected that 4 enterprises will stop production and 1 enterprise will resume production, so the probability of a decrease in production is relatively high. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 0.1947 billion tons, and the operating rate was 82.55%. The price of thermal coal increased due to tight supply, while the price of liquefied natural gas decreased. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, and the price of methanol increased [15][17][18]. Urea Demand - side - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat week - on - week. As of August 22, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has reached a historical high for the same period, and the room for further increase is limited. Affected by environmental protection restrictions for the military parade, the operating rate has slightly decreased and will resume production later, but the overall increase is limited. The inventory of finished products in factories has been at a five - year high for the past two months, and the probability of centralized fertilizer procurement is low. From August 15 to August 22, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84%, a decrease of 2.64 percentage points from the previous week and 2.24 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.6%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points from the previous period and 18.25 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of August 22, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0665 billion tons or 6.65%, and 0.5633 billion tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 0.483 billion tons, a decrease of 0.01 billion tons from the previous week [20][22]. International Market - China's third batch of urea exports is expected to complete customs clearance on October 15, about 700,000 - 800,000 tons. With the easing of China - India relations, there will be export quotas to India. India has a continuous demand for urea and will continue to issue tenders. Under China's export expectations, the international urea price will be under pressure. India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts), with a bid - closing date of September 2 and a bid validity period of September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. As of August 22, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in different regions remained flat week - on - week [24].