Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends of various commodities, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and the performance of financial markets at home and abroad, offering investors a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation [3][9][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.00% at $3392.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.51% at $37.90 per ounce [3]. - U.S. inventory decline pushed up oil prices, with the U.S. crude oil main contract up 1.73% at $62.84 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 1.76% at $66.95 per barrel [4]. - Most London base metals rose, except for LME tin which fell 0.22% to $33775.00 per ton [4]. - Most domestic futures main contracts rose, with caustic soda up over 3% and butadiene rubber up over 2% [4]. - As of 2:20, U.S. soybeans rose 0.17%, U.S. corn rose 0.25%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.97%, U.S. soybean meal rose 0.52%, and U.S. wheat rose 1.44% [5]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [9]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent said that the U.S. had a "very good dialogue" with China on economic and trade issues and expected another meeting before November [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will work on enriching product supply, promoting the listing of important energy varieties like liquefied natural gas [9]. - Israel's Defense Minister approved an offensive plan against Gaza City [9]. - Kevin Thozet of Capital Economics said that U.S. short - term interest rates face an upward risk [9]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In Japan, as of August 16, commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, and the refinery's average operating rate rose [14]. - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory increased, with both East and South China regions accumulating inventory [14]. - As of August 10, the rubber (RSS) inventory in Osaka Exchange's designated warehouses decreased [15]. - As of August 20, the capacity utilization rate and output of China's 92 asphalt refineries decreased [16]. - As of August 20, China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory decreased [16]. - Russia expects India to continue buying its oil despite potential U.S. tariff hikes [16]. - As of August 18, the refined oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased [16]. - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 601.4 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations [20]. Metal Futures - In July 2025, global primary aluminum production increased compared to the previous year and the previous month, and China's expected production also rose [22]. - Some polysilicon enterprises reached an agreement on production cuts and inventory control [22]. - With the approaching of relevant events, safety inspections in northern China's lead - zinc mines increased, but there was no direct impact on zinc concentrate production [22]. - In June 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus, and the same was true for the first six months of 2025 [22]. Black - Series Futures - Environmental protection policies are affecting the coking coal and coke market from both supply and demand sides, with potential supply tightening and demand constraints [24]. - The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's ETT company on August 20 ended in failure [26]. - A coal mine in Inner Mongolia was ordered to suspend production for rectification due to major safety hazards [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market [28]. - Pro Farmer's crop inspection predicted higher corn yields and more soybean pods in Nebraska and Indiana in 2025 compared to 2024 [28]. - In August, China's soybean crushing volume is expected to be high, and the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills is expected to rise [29]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [29]. - U.S. private exporters reported corn sales to Mexico and Colombia for the 2025/2026 sales year [31]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten - year high, and the semiconductor industry chain was strong [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, while the Hang Seng Technology Index was slightly down, and there was a large net southbound capital outflow [33]. - Since August, the securities sector has performed well, with many stocks rising and funds flowing in through ETFs [33]. - Many A - share listed companies announced mid - year dividend plans, with a total proposed dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [34]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has received 50 new IPO applications since the launch of the "tech enterprise special route" [34]. - China Evergrande's listing status will be cancelled on August 25 [38]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's second - quarter revenue and profit increased year - on - year [38]. - Baidu's second - quarter revenue decreased slightly, but its net profit and AI new business revenue increased [38]. Industry - The State Taxation Administration will guide and remind platform enterprises that have not submitted tax - related information [39]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new anti - monopoly regulations for the public utility sector [39]. - Some rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin have lowered deposit interest rates, while some banks have launched large - value certificates of deposit with higher yields [39]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers decreased, and the inventory level was below the warning line but above the reasonable range [40]. Overseas - U.S. President Trump pressured Fed Governor Cook to resign [43]. - Trump has bought hundreds of bonds worth at least $103.7 million since taking office [44]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade [44]. - The ECB President said that the euro - zone economy may slow down this quarter [45]. - UK's July CPI accelerated, reducing the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England [45]. - Japan's July commodity exports decreased significantly, especially automobile exports [46]. - South Korea will launch a 45.8 - trillion - won support plan for key industries [47]. - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points [47]. - The Central Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points [50]. - The Swedish Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged but still expects a possible rate cut this year [51]. International Stock Markets - U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.67% [52]. - European three major stock indexes closed mixed, affected by the expectation of peace talks in Ukraine, Fed policy, and economic data [52]. - Estée Lauder's Q4 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but its 2026 EPS forecast was lower than expected [52]. - Target's Q2 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but comparable sales decreased [53]. - iQiyi's Q2 net loss widened, and its core businesses shrank [53]. - Futu Holdings' Q2 revenue and profit increased significantly year - on - year [56]. Commodities - The CSRC will promote the listing of important energy varieties and expand the scope of futures and derivatives [57]. - The U.S. Soybean Association warned of the severe impact on U.S. soybean farmers if an export agreement with China is not reached soon [57]. - International precious metal futures rose, supported by market uncertainty related to inflation data [57]. - Oil prices rose due to a larger - than - expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventory [57]. - Most London base metals rose, affected by the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy [58]. Bonds - The strong stock market suppressed the bond market, with most bond yields rising and bond futures falling [59]. - The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, easing liquidity tensions [61]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on August 27 [62]. - Foreign investors continued to buy ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds in July [62]. - Most U.S. Treasury yields fell [62]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday, while the central parity rate was slightly depreciated [63]. - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, and most non - U.S. currencies had mixed performance [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the Fed's September FOMC meeting is approaching, with high market uncertainty. The fundamentals remain largely unchanged, but the upcoming peak season may boost demand, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market is volatile. Although the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production eases supply concerns, the suspension of CATL's production continues. With the anti - involution measures in progress, lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [11]. - For crude oil, supply - demand conditions are weakening, and prices are expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][14]. - For asphalt, considering factors such as开工 rate, production, demand, and cost, it is advisable to view asphalt as having a weak and volatile trend [15]. - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. The 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit and exit as the 09 contract approaches the delivery month [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to oscillate recently, influenced by factors like开工 rate, demand, and cost [18]. - For PVC, due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, it is expected to oscillate downward [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is fluctuating, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. - For urea, the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 20th, domestic commodity futures contracts showed mixed performance. EG, caustic soda, and methanol rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down, and soda ash, glass, etc. declined significantly. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures had different trends [6]. Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 20th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2509, SSE 300 2509, and CSI 500 2509, while funds flowed out of Shanghai silver 2510, lithium carbonate 2511, and ten - year treasury bond 2509 [7]. Specific Commodity Analyses Copper - Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's FOMC meeting. Supply may face challenges in the later third - quarter, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the resumption of Yichun Yinli's production, the market sentiment fluctuated, and the price hit the daily limit down. Supply may decline in August - September, and demand has some support [11]. Crude Oil - Seasonal factors, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical events affect supply - demand. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by factors such as weather and funds. Cost is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工 rate is low, supply may increase, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate, and the 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended to take profit [16][17]. Plastic -开工 rate is at a medium - low level, demand is weak, and cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate [18]. PVC - Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is increasing, downstream demand is complex, and market sentiment is fluctuating. The price is temporarily oscillating with a downward bias [21]. Urea - Supply has a narrow - range fluctuation, demand is insufficient, and inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender [23].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The outcome of the September Fed interest rate meeting is highly uncertain, leading to a stalemate between bulls and bears in the market. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will make cautious decisions at the meeting to avoid significant easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation has improved, reducing market risk aversion. On the supply side, refined copper production in May increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the port inventory of copper concentrates has declined to a five-year low. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in Chile has led to a short-term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees for smelters continue to stabilize and rise, with long-term contracts profitable and spot contracts still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. In August, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production of refined copper will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up. On the demand side, downstream demand is tepid during the off-season, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. Real estate investment and sales have declined, but the power grid and new energy sectors provide demand resilience. The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short-term demand and a loose supply-demand pattern. However, as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, domestic demand is expected to improve. Overall, with the Fed interest rate meeting approaching, the market is in a stalemate, and the market situation is highly uncertain. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the expected peak season demand provides support for the market. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamental Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in July was flat at 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut [5]. Recent Developments in the Copper Mining Sector - Jintian Co., Ltd. announced on August 13 that with the rapid development of the AI industry driving the growth of chip computing power demand, copper materials have become the core materials for advanced chip interconnection and heat dissipation due to their excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. The company's high-precision special-shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products have been mass-produced in the 3DVC new AI heat dissipation structure and have reached strategic cooperation with global leading heat dissipation module enterprises, and are applied in multiple top-level GPU heat dissipation solutions. The company's self-developed copper heat pipes, liquid-cooled copper tubes and other products have also been successfully introduced into the computing power servers of multiple leading enterprises [7]. - On August 14, foreign media reported that Chilean mining company Antofagasta's semi-annual report showed that its core profit increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Driven by the strong global copper demand and rising prices, its EBITDA increased from $1.39 billion in the same period last year to $2.23 billion, slightly higher than market expectations [9]. Analysis of LME Copper and SHFE Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 19, the highest price of SHFE copper during the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.97% and an interval decline of -0.16%. The highest price of LME copper during the week was $9,865/ton, the lowest was $9,680/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.88% and an interval decline of -1.58% [10]. - As of August 20, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and the number of domestic smelter maintenance increased, leading to a stronger spot premium. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [16]. Copper Supply Side - According to customs data, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week [19]. - The El Teniente copper mine under Codelco in Chile suffered a mine collapse on July 31, with a magnitude of 4.2, resulting in the death of six miners. The smelter restarted on August 13 [19]. - As of August 15, the spot TC in China was -37.65 dollars/dry ton, and the RC was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rise. The result of the mid-year long-term contract negotiation was set at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long-term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still in the red. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October [22][23]. - In June 2025, the import volume of scrap copper was 183,200 tons, higher than expected. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper reduced the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelters reduced their scrap copper usage rate [28]. - In July 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. The cumulative production from January to July was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. The smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production will not fluctuate significantly. However, production may be cut or halted in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up [28][29]. - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [29]. Copper Inventory Data - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory build-up speed has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous week and an increase of 28.76% from the previous month. The inventory build-up speed at COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, an increase of 1.16% from the previous week and an increase of 11.59% from the previous month [31]. - On August 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 94,300 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 88,100 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 6,200 tons, an increase of 800 tons from August 11 and unchanged from August 14. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase due to the arrival of export goods from some smelters [31]. - The SHFE inventory has remained at a low level with slight fluctuations and has not increased significantly. However, it increased by 2,423 tons compared to the previous week, reflecting weak downstream demand and a loose supply-demand pattern in the short term [31]. Downstream Terminal Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by approximately 2% in 2025 and by approximately 0.8% in 2026 [40]. - Downstream demand is tepid, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. However, the power grid and new energy sectors have strong resilience, providing support for copper prices [40]. - According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod in July 2025 was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The operating rate was lower than expected, and downstream cable procurement was cautious, putting pressure on copper rod processing fees. Refined copper rod enterprises showed unexpected production cuts, and the current operating load is at a historically low level. It is expected that the production reduction in August will be limited [40]. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, with a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also periodic restocking [40]. - From January to July, the retail sales of air conditioners increased by 16.7% year-on-year, maintaining a steady upward trend in the first half of the year. In August, the growth rate of the retail end turned negative for the first time, with a 6% and 19% decline in online and offline sales respectively in the first week of August. The domestic sales production plan for air conditioners in September was 5.082 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and the export production plan was 4.785 million units, a significant decrease of 14.6% [40]. - According to the National Energy Administration, the investment in power grid projects from January to June was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching a historical high for the same period. The investment in power source projects from January to June was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively. Power grid projects remain a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [46]. - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year-on-year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4.9566 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June [46].

【冠通研究】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2025 年 8 月 20 日，尿素仓单数量 3573 张，环比上个交易日持平。 情绪降温，小幅回落 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 20 日 【策略分析】 今日高开高走，午后下挫收跌。受昨日期货大幅上涨的影响，今日现货报 价上调，但今日期货翻绿后，市场成交比较有限。今日山东、河南及河北尿素 工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1700-1740 元/吨。基本面来看暂无过分波 动，尿素工厂装置上周产量增加，本期停产与复工并行，整体窄幅波动为主， 需求端，内需整体不足，复合肥工厂处于秋季肥生产的初级阶段，开工负荷持 续回升，目前已至历史同期高位水平，继续攀升空间不大，且厂内成品库存数 月位于历史同期高位，目前秋季复合肥初期阶段，工厂暂无拿货生产压力。其 他工业需求方面，三聚氰胺开工负荷降低，夏季检修开启，且后续依然有检修 计划，终端板材家具气氛冷清，房地产拖累。内需不足，尿素厂内库存表现为 累库，目前尿素厂内库存处于近五年来最高的水平，制约尿素价格上行高度。 昨日中印友好会谈刺激尿素行情拉涨，市场普遍预期印度出口尿 ...

1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $3358.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.84% to $37.33 per ounce [3] - Geopolitical easing expectations dampened crude oil demand. The main contract of US crude oil fell 1.12% to $62.00 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.95% to $65.97 per barrel [4] - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum futures fell 0.81% to $2567.50 per ton, LME nickel futures fell 0.60% to $15060.00 per ton, LME copper futures fell 0.50% to $9684.50 per ton, and LME zinc futures fell 0.25% to $2770.00 per ton [4] - As of the 23:00 close, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Methanol rose slightly, while soda ash and glass fell more than 4%, and butadiene rubber and coking coal fell more than 3% [4] - As of the 2:20 close, US soybeans fell 0.78%, US corn fell 0.98%, US soybean oil fell 2.93%, US soybean meal rose 2.43%, and US wheat fell 0.90% [5] 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - A relevant person in charge of the China Futures Association suggested continuously expanding specific varieties and steadily expanding the "variety pool" of opening up [8] - A relevant person in charge of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange stated that they are steadily promoting the research and development of innovative varieties such as the Baltic Panamax Dry Bulk Freight Index Futures (BPI Index Futures) [8] - In response to a question about China lifting restrictions on rare - earth exports to India, Mao Ning said she was unaware of the situation but was willing to strengthen dialogue and cooperation to maintain global supply - chain stability [8] 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - China's soda ash production in July 2025 was 3.099 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4.5%. The cumulative production from January to July was 23.202 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [10] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is actively promoting the overall opening up of polyester - sector varieties as specific varieties [10] 2.3 Metal Futures - A zinc smelter in the northwest plans to continue its maintenance plan from September to October, with the expected impact to be made up from November to December [13] - Tianjin restricted transportation vehicles below National V emission standards starting at midnight last night. Some galvanizing small factories have stopped production due to transportation problems [13] - Indonesia's refined tin exports in July were 3792.22 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.24% and a month - on - month decrease of 15.07%. The cumulative exports from January to July were 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 64.4% [13] - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary will resume production soon after equipment maintenance [13] - In July 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 68,500 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.66% and a year - on - year increase of 10.97% [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments deployed work to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry [14] 2.4 Black - Series Futures - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 144.424 million tons, an increase of 418,200 tons from the previous Monday [17] - Some independent strip steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan received environmental protection production suspension notices from August 20 to September 3, which may reduce the daily output by about 5,000 tons [17] - Shanxi Meijin Iron and Steel plans to resume production on August 22, increasing the daily hot - metal output by about 3,000 tons [18] 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - India cancelled the 11% cotton import tariff and the Agricultural Infrastructure and Development Cess from August 19 to September 30 [20] - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 11 to 15 was 392.46 reais per ton [20] - ProFarmer's crop inspection estimated higher corn yields and more soybean pods in Ohio and South Dakota in 2025 compared to 2024 [21] - Brazil's competition management agency plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan" [23] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to remain above 4300 ringgit [23] - Zhengshang Institute adjusted the cotton warehouse receipt premium standards [23] - Although the arrival of imported soybeans was large, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills increased for two consecutive weeks, and the coastal soybean inventory decreased slightly last week [23] - A US private exporter reported selling 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [24] 3. Financial Market 3.1 Finance - On Tuesday, the A - share market was in a narrow - range consolidation with reduced trading volume. The three major indexes closed down, while the Beizheng 50 hit a new high [26] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.21%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.67% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.3%. Southbound funds had a large - scale net purchase [28] - Brokers are competing for customers, with some offering low commission rates [28] - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching a 10 - year high [28] - Foreign institutions are accelerating their positions in Chinese stocks. As of August 18, QFIIs appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of over 70 listed companies [29] - As of August 19, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 89 stocks, with 20 newly added [29] - As of August 19, 432 out of 666 A - share listed companies that disclosed their 2025 semi - annual reports had year - on - year growth in net profit [29] - XPeng Motors' Q2 revenue increased by 125.3% year - on - year, and it expects to deliver 113,000 - 118,000 vehicles in Q3 [31] - Pop Mart's H1 revenue and net profit exceeded the whole of last year [32] - Shein is considering moving its headquarters back to China to pave the way for a Hong Kong IPO [33] - IQIYI has hired banks to arrange its secondary listing in Hong Kong, which may raise $200 - 300 million [34] 3.2 Industry - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed work to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry [35] - Shanghai released a plan to promote the development of "AI + Manufacturing" [35] - A number of major science and technology industrial projects with a total investment of over 40 billion yuan landed in Shanghai Lingang [36] - Guangdong Province introduced 21 measures to promote the development of the commercial space industry [36] - Heilongjiang adjusted the consumer goods trade - in subsidy policy [38] - In July, the newly registered private equity funds had a scale of 107.427 billion yuan [39] 3.3 Overseas - US President Trump said the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not join NATO. The US is planning a tri - partite meeting [40] - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tariff [40] - Japan and the US plan to closely consult on implementing a $550 - billion investment in the US [40] - US new home starts in July increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 1.428 million units [40] - S&P affirmed the US "AA +/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook [41] - A former Japanese foreign minister called on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [43] - The Bank of Korea will consider various factors when formulating monetary policy next week [43] - South Korea's July auto export value increased by 8.8% year - on - year [43] 3.4 International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.59%, and the Nasdaq down 1.46% [44] - European stocks closed up, driven by peace expectations [44] - Intel's valuation increased by $25 billion due to potential government investment and SoftBank's plan [44] - BHP's 2025 fiscal year attributable profit increased by 14% year - on - year, while adjusted attributable profit decreased by 26% [45] - Home Depot's Q2 adjusted EPS was slightly lower than expected, and it reaffirmed its full - year guidance [47] 3.5 Commodities - The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was officially inaugurated, which may promote RMB settlement in commodity trading [48] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the research and development of innovative varieties and the opening up of polyester - sector varieties [48] - International precious metal futures generally fell, affected by factors such as Fed officials' remarks and geopolitical situation [48] - Crude oil prices fell due to geopolitical easing expectations [48] - Most London base metals declined, as US inflation data affected market expectations for Fed rate cuts [49] 3.6 Bonds - The bond market stabilized. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [51] - Guangdong Province will issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau in late August [51] - The second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs is about to be submitted, with 14 fund companies involved [51] - US Treasury yields fell across the board [51] 3.7 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down at 7.1820 on Tuesday, and the offshore RMB also declined slightly [52] - The US dollar index rose 0.12%, and most non - US currencies fell [52] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events 4.1 Economic Data - Key economic data to be released include Japan's July trade balance, China's August LPR, and Germany's July PPI [55] 4.2 Events - Important events include the New Zealand central bank's interest - rate decision, the European Central Bank President's speech, and the Fed's release of monetary policy meeting minutes [57]

Group 1: Hot News - China Futures Association suggests continuous expansion of specific futures varieties and steady opening of the "variety pool", expanding the scope of specific varieties at a "mature one, include one" pace, and optimizing cross - border fund settlement and bonded delivery networks [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is advancing the research and development of innovative products like the Baltic Panamax Dry Bulk Freight Index Futures (BPI Index Futures) and exploring settlement price authorization cooperation with overseas futures exchanges [2] - Regarding India media's report on China lifting rare - earth export restrictions on India, the spokesperson said she was unaware of the situation and emphasized cooperation to maintain global supply - chain stability [2] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - session Performance - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, butadiene rubber, glass, soda ash, and urea [3] - Night - session performance shows the following sector percentage increases: non - metallic building materials 2.95%, precious metals 26.23%, oilseeds and oils 13.19%, non - ferrous metals 21.11%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 14.71%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 11.72%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.99% [3] Group 3: Position Changes - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering multiple sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coking - steel - minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity market: Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 4.31%, and a yearly increase of 11.20%; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have different performance data [5] - Fixed - income market: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and yearly performance data [5] - Commodity market: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., show various price changes [5] - Other assets: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have their respective performance data [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai copper, the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The fundamental situation has no significant change. The market is waiting for new drivers, with support at 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Thursday [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to frequent disturbances at the mine end and the approaching peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and the price is expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, it is recommended to view it as a weak and volatile market due to the weakening cost side [15]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is cooling, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [21]. - For urea, in the short term, it will mainly show a strong and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Urea rose more than 3%, PX and rapeseed meal rose more than 1%. Silicon iron fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon, alumina, soda ash, and eggs fell more than 2%. Stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, while treasury bond futures of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year all rose [6]. - As of 15:21 on August 19, in terms of capital flow, palm oil 2601, glass 2601, and soybean meal 2601 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [8]. Shanghai Copper - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of concentrate copper ore has decreased to a five - year low. The collapse of the El Teniente mine has led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees continue to rise steadily. There is only one smelter with a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production may decline in the later third quarter [10]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. Real estate still drags down demand, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating a weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: As of the week of August 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons compared with the previous week. The spot price of spodumene has been rising, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [11]. - Demand: The market's purchasing sentiment has increased, and there is a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. In the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to the approaching peak season and supply - side disturbances [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus [12]. - Demand: It is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. The inventory of crude oil and diesel has increased, and the overall oil product inventory continues to rise. The economic situation in the United States has raised concerns, which will increase the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter [12]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%. The estimated production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month but increased by 17.1% year - on - year [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries mostly increased last week, but the national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and rainfall [15]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises is around 84%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has decreased to about 25%. A new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded to 49.35%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is still high. It is expected to enter the peak season soon, and the operating rate of plastic weaving has slightly increased [16]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 82.5%. A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year has been put into operation recently, and the operating rate has slightly decreased [18]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased to 39.47%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. The orders of agricultural films and packaging films have decreased. The consumption off - season has not ended, and the inventory pressure is still high [18]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 80.33%. New production capacities will be put into production in August, September. The export expectation in the second half of the year has weakened [19][20]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has slightly decreased. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is large [19][20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The supply data has increased this period, the production of clean coal and raw coal has increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal has decreased [21]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production of downstream coke has increased while the inventory has decreased. However, the iron - water production has decreased this period, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The seventh round of coke price increase has started, but there is resistance from downstream customers [21]. Urea - Supply: The production of urea plants increased last week, and there were both shutdowns and restarts this period, with overall narrow fluctuations [22]. - Demand: Domestic demand is insufficient. The compound fertilizer factories are in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating rate has reached a historical high. The melamine operating rate has decreased, and the terminal furniture market is cold. The inventory of urea plants has increased and is at a five - year high [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low, then rallied in the afternoon, with an intraday increase of nearly 4%. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, mainly due to the positive impact of the China - India friendly talks and the expected increase in India's urea export quota. However, the high inventory level of urea factories restricts the upward space of urea prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed low, then rallied in the afternoon, with an intraday increase of nearly 4%. The upstream factory's shipment atmosphere improved, and the spot trading atmosphere is expected to improve tomorrow. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton. The overall domestic demand is insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory is expected to continue to increase. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1756 yuan/ton, closed at 1817 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.53%. The trading volume increased by 29,238 lots to 213,033 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 14,980 lots, and short positions increased by 22,768 lots. Some futures companies' net long and net short positions changed [2][3] - **Spot**: The upstream factory's quotes rose steadily. Affected by the futures turning positive, the upstream factory's shipment atmosphere improved. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton [6] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes decreased, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, entering the risk - free arbitrage range, with the January contract basis at - 77 yuan/ton (- 63 yuan/ton) [7] - **Supply Data**: On August 19, 2025, the national daily urea output was 194,200 tons, the same as yesterday, with an operating rate of 82.69% [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended downwards. The market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut situation ahead of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The fundamental situation has no significant change, and the market is waiting for new drivers. There is support at 78,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Market sentiment: The Jackson Hole meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell is expected to make cautious decisions. The improvement of the Russia - Ukraine situation has cooled market risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. Concentrate port inventories are at a five - year low. TC/RC fees are stabilizing and rising. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still in the red. The high sulfuric acid price supports smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production is expected to be stable in the short term, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still drags down demand, with a 12% year - on - year decline in real estate development investment and a 4% decline in new commercial housing sales area from January to July. However, the power grid and new energy sectors bring demand resilience. SHFE inventories increased this week, indicating short - term weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened lower and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,052 to 94,551 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,444 to 92,496 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 155 yuan/ton, and in South China is 50 yuan/ton. On August 18, 2025, the LME official price was 9,730 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 103.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventories remained unchanged at 25,500 tons. As of August 18, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventories increased by 7,500 tons to 88,200 tons. LME copper inventories decreased slightly by 450 tons to 155,200 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased by 1,875 short tons to 269,000 short tons [9].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity and improve the treasury bond yield curve [1] - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [1] - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US contact on the Ukraine issue [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, boosting domestic circulation, and stimulating consumption [2] 2. Key Focus - Commodities to focus on: coking coal, rapeseed meal, PX, soda ash, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.88%, precious metals 26.18%, oilseeds 13.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.24%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.83%, energy 3.29%, chemicals 11.70%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.97% [3] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions from August 12 - 18, 2025 [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.85 | 4.33 | 11.23 | | | SSE 50 | 0.21 | 2.27 | 5.74 | | | CSI 300 | 0.88 | 4.02 | 7.74 | | | CSI 500 | 1.52 | 7.10 | 16.46 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.01 | 1.73 | 9.65 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.37 | 1.63 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | - 0.18 | 1.04 | 22.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.77 | 6.44 | 9.57 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 12.05 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | - 0.29 | - 0.43 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | - 0.21 | - 0.26 | - 1.02 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.04 | - 0.05 | - 0.65 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.16 | - 1.25 | - 0.24 | | | WTI crude oil | 0.88 | - 8.48 | - 11.92 | | | London spot gold | - 0.10 | 1.28 | 26.97 | | | LME copper | - 0.41 | 1.31 | 10.84 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.11 | - 0.40 | 15.15 | | Others | US Dollar Index | 0.31 | - 1.89 | - 9.52 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 9.75 | - 13.03 | [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as risk premiums of related stock indices [6]