Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1690 1710 -20 山东 1690 1720 -30 山西 1560 1560 0 江苏 1690 1710 -20 安徽 1690 1700 -10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1710 1710 0 山东华鲁 1710 1710 0 江苏灵谷 1730 1730 0 安徽昊源 1660 1660 0 山东05基差 -35 -68 33 山东01基差 -53 -88 35 河北05基差 -15 -38 23 河北01基差 -33 -58 25 1-5价差 57 56 1 5-9价差 -18 -20 2 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11526 10485 1041 中东FOB 375 384 -9 美湾FOB 355.5 369 -14 埃及FOB 450 460 -10 波罗的海FOB 360 367.5 -8 巴西CFR 405 415 -10 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-853 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 8, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like live pigs, low-sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while others such as coking coal and coke declined significantly. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing short - term risks and others having long - term upward potential [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 8, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Live pigs, low - sulfur fuel oil, and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, while coking coal fell over 6% and coke fell over 5%. In the stock index futures, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose, and in the bond futures, the performance varied [5][6]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The price of Shanghai copper has been rising due to factors such as the increase in LME cancelled warrants, the anti - internal competition in the domestic copper industry, and the expected Fed rate cut. The supply is tight, and the downstream has some resilience. However, the downstream's ability to accept the price is insufficient after continuous price increases, so short - term small corrections should be watched out, and it is bullish in the long - term [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although CATL did not resume production as scheduled on December 5, the upstream production capacity is increasing. The production in November continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed down in December. The downstream demand has slowed down and is differentiated. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. The end of the consumption peak season, concerns about demand, and continuous production increase have led to an oversupply situation. However, due to factors such as the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the Fed's expected rate cut, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is decreasing, and the downstream demand is general. The price of crude oil is oscillating at a low level. The start - up rate of asphalt will increase slightly, but the demand will weaken further. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate weakly [14]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply is increasing. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, but the downstream demand is weakening. The supply is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is high. Although there are some policy boosts, it is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Coking Coal**: The price dropped by over 6%. The supply is under pressure from imported coal, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory transfer is difficult, and it is expected to remain weak in the short - term [20][21]. - **Urea**: The price dropped on Monday. The supply pressure is relieved due to the shutdown of gas - fired devices, and the demand for winter storage and other aspects still exists. It is difficult for the price to drop significantly, and caution is needed in trading [22].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report does not mention the investment rating of the PVC industry [1][3][27] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a weak and volatile state recently due to factors such as a slight decline in the PVC start - up rate, high inventory, weak real - estate demand, and falling prices of raw materials like coking coal [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Supply Side - The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Some device start - ups, such as those of Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu, declined [3][16] - New production capacities: Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons is in full - load production, while Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each are in low - load operation after commissioning [3] 2. Demand Side - The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly, and the orders for downstream products were poor [3] - From January to October 2025, the real - estate industry was still in the adjustment phase. Investment, new construction, and completion areas had large year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further decreased. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [3][21] 3. Export Situation - India terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty in India is also likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, generally lowered its December quotations by $30 - 60 per ton, export orders declined, and last week's export orders were basically stable [3] 4. Inventory - As of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure was still large [23] 5. Market Sentiment and Future Trend - Although the National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition gave some support to bulk commodities, the PVC fundamentals were still weak. The start - up expectations of production enterprises such as Yibin Tianyuan and Ningbo Zhenyang decreased, the start - up rate declined slightly, and the output decline was limited. The futures warehouse receipts were still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC had limited support, December is the traditional off - season for PVC demand, and the falling prices of coking coal and other factors suppressed market sentiment, so PVC is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [3] 6. Basis - The current 01 basis is - 16 yuan per ton, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level [11]

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 冠通期货研究咨询部王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年12月08日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场综述 最近，市场宏观逻辑的要点在与下一任美联储主席的人选。鲍威尔即将卸任，特朗普积极插足，即将公布其已经确定的人选。白 宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特成为热门人选，市场交易更加宽松的预期，美债利率与美元双双承压。投资者风险偏好回暖，波 动率VIX指数大幅下降，风险资产悉数反弹。全球股市与大宗商品多数收涨，A股主要股指全线反弹，BDI指数逆势上扬，美元指数明显 收跌，非美货币多数走升。大宗商品涨跌互现，贵金属与有色双双上扬，油价迎来反弹。 国内债市涨跌互现近强远弱、股指全线反弹，商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌；股市全线反弹，成长型风格表现不如价值型，沪 深300反弹幅度最为明显；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌，Wind商品指 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 | 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增 | | --- | | 产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期累库，整体油品库存继续增加。 | | 美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈 | | 判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5 | | 个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国 | | 和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大 | | 楼将很快对委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消费旺 | | 季结束、美国11月份 ...

研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月08日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升0.1个百分点至27.9%，较去年同期低了1.0个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨， 减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于29%，受到资金和天气制约。 上周，全国出货量环比增加7.06%至28.06万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期 的最低位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不 大，里海管道联盟2号单点系泊严重受损，原油价格低位震荡。委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火灾，20万桶/日的蒸馏装 置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀释沥青贴 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to over 80% due to weak US economic data, and Trump's hint at Fed chair candidates has undermined the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar to decline and supporting metal prices. China's 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on cultivating copper - end enterprises in AI and new energy, releasing positive demand signals for copper prices. The supply side remains tight, while the downstream shows some resilience, so copper prices still have upward momentum. However, after the continuous price increase, the downstream's purchasing power is insufficient, so short - term minor corrections should be watched out for, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Macro**: Weak US economic data boosts the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December to over 80%, and Trump's hint at Fed chair candidates weakens the Fed's independence, leading to a continuous decline in the US dollar and supporting metal prices. China's 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on copper - end enterprises in AI and new energy, releasing positive demand signals [3] - **Supply**: The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% by its members in 2026 due to copper concentrate processing fees hitting historical lows. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, and December production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [3] - **Demand**: After the continuous price increase, the downstream's purchasing power is insufficient. Copper tube enterprises are cautious in production due to rising copper prices. The production of copper strips has slowed down, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has declined, with inventory piling up [3] 2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. The weekly high was 92,910 yuan/ton, the low was 87,520 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 6.16%, and the interval increase was 6.12% [6] 3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of December 5, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 85 yuan/ton. The copper premium strengthened due to rising prices and low market arrivals. It is expected that the premium will be suppressed as downstream purchasing interest decreases after continuous price increases [11] 4. London Copper Spread Structure - As of December 5, LME copper rose 5.74% this week, closing at $11,616/ton. The Fed's expectations and the issue of LME cancelled warrants drove up the copper price [16] 5. Copper Concentrate Supply - As of December 5, copper concentrate port inventory was 681,000 tons, up 1.04% week - on - week. Although inventory has been increasing, it is still lower than last year. Global copper concentrate is in short supply, and ore grades are declining. In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, up 8.0% year - on - year [20] 6. Scrap Copper Supply - In October 2025, China's scrap copper imports were about 196,607 tons, up 6.81% month - on - month and 7.35% year - on - year, with Japan being the largest source. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The advantage of the refined - scrap price difference is not obvious due to weak terminal consumption [25] 7. Smelter Fees - As of December 5, China's spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.03 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.38 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. The CSPT's 2026 production cut plan due to low processing fees has driven up the Shanghai copper price [29] 8. Refined Copper Supply - In November, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, a 1.05% increase, and 9.75% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, a 11.76% increase. In December, 4 smelters are under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, down 4.7% year - on - year [33] 9. Apparent Demand - As of October 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3218 million tons, down 9.25% month - on - month [37] 10. Copper Products - Copper tube enterprises are cautious in production due to rising copper prices. The production of copper strips has slowed down, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has declined, with inventory piling up. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, up 5.9% year - on - year [42] 11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, up 17.3% year - on - year. The installed capacity of solar power was 1.14 billion kilowatts, up 43.8% year - on - year, and that of wind power was 590 million kilowatts, up 21.4% year - on - year. From January to October, the national power generation equipment had an average utilization of 2,619 hours, 260 hours less than the previous year [46] 12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, down 14.7% year - on - year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, down 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, down 9.6% year - on - year [53] 13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From November 1 to 30, 2025, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.72 million, up 20% year - on - year and 7% month - on - month. As of November, the cumulative wholesale sales of new - energy vehicles had reached 13.78 million, up 29% year - on - year [57] 14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges - As of December 5, LME copper inventory increased by 3,125 tons to 162,600 tons, and COMEX copper inventory was 436,900 tons, up 4.33% week - on - week and 372% year - on - year. Global copper inventory is generally increasing, but there is still a shortage in other parts of the world except the US. The sharp increase in LME cancelled warrants has strengthened the market's expectation of overseas demand and supply shortage [62] - On December 4, the cumulative copper inventory in bonded areas in Shanghai and Guangdong was 101,500 tons, with a slight increase. After the SHFE inventory reached a high in mid - November, it decreased with market sentiment. As of December 5, SHFE copper inventory was 30,900 tons, down 12.22% week - on - week [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Plastic and PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. The L - PP spread is predicted to decline due to potential new plastic capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率下降1.5个百分点至87.5%左右，处于中性水平，因新增裕龙石化HDPE 2线等检修装置 [15]. - PP开工率上涨0.5个百分点至81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，因东莞巨正源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车 [15]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 5, PE下游开工率环比下降0.54个百分点至43.76%，处于近年同期偏低位水平，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜和包装膜订单均下降 [21]. - As of the week of December 5, PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平，拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期 [21]. 3.3 Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 4 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level, as the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price [25]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in recent years [28].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.36% to $4,227.7 per ounce, down 0.64% for the week; COMEX silver futures rose 2.28% to $58.8 per ounce, up 2.86% for the week [5]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both rose. U.S. crude oil rose 0.79% to $60.14 per barrel, up 2.72% for the week; Brent crude rose 1.01% to $63.9 per barrel, up 2.44% for the week [6]. - London base metals were mixed. LME copper rose 1.88% to $11,665 per ton, up 4.25% for the week; LME nickel rose 0.49% to $14,970 per ton, up 0.95% for the week [6]. - U.S. stocks rose slightly. The Dow rose 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 6,870.4 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 23,578.13 points [6]. - Domestic futures contracts were mixed. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose over 1%, while coking coal fell over 5% [8]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The State Council executive meeting emphasized energy conservation and carbon reduction. China's futures market volume and turnover increased in November. Shipping freight indices declined. Morgan Stanley and the market expect Fed rate cuts [10][11][12]. - China and the U.S. held a video call on economic and trade issues. Russia hopes to accelerate the peace process in the Ukraine crisis. The U.S. core PCE price index unexpectedly dropped [14][15]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted trading margins and price limits for certain futures contracts. Glass companies may cut production due to high inventory [17]. Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. Copper, zinc, and lead inventories decreased, while aluminum, nickel, and tin inventories increased [20]. Black Futures - Shenzhen adjusted housing provident fund withdrawal rules. Steel production decreased in late November, while steel product production increased. Iron ore and steel inventories and production data were reported [22][25]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased. Sugar cane crushing in Guangxi was slower than last year. Domestic and global agricultural product data were reported [27][28][30]. 3. Financial Markets Financial Sector - More Shanghai-listed companies announced shareholding increase plans in the first 11 months. The FOF market boomed in 2025. The first batch of North Exchange 50 index funds had positive returns [35]. - A-shares rebounded last week. Analysts expect short-term volatility and recommend dividend and large-cap stocks. The Sichuan government issued a three-year plan for enterprise listing and M&A [36][37]. Industry - Rare disease drugs were included in the medical insurance and commercial insurance catalogs. The global semiconductor market grew in October. The Henan cultivated diamond industry aims to develop brands [38][39]. Overseas - The U.S. government investigated the food supply chain. Trump planned to promote inflation reduction. The EU fined social media platform X. Nigeria hopes to join the BRICS [41][42][43]. Commodities - The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month. The CME experienced a trading outage. Copper prices hit new highs [44][46]. Bonds - Local governments issued special bonds for government investment funds. Analysts expect a shift in asset trends after December meetings [47]. Foreign Exchange - Analysts expect the RMB to appreciate against the U.S. dollar in 2026 and recommend currency easing to avoid damage to exports [49]. 4. Upcoming Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include Japan's trade balance, Germany's industrial output, and China's import and export data [51]. - Upcoming events include the UK central bank's financial stability report and the European Central Bank's speech. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is pending [53].