【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑，库存去化 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 3 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，日内偏强。期货盘面数日反弹，现货成交继续增量， 随着订单的增多，部分工厂出现停售。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂报价范围多在 1620-1680 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端。气头装置限气减产 拉开序幕，内蒙部分装置已开启检修，后续西南地区本月也将逐渐开始停产减 产，目前日产依然处于 19 万吨-20 吨之间。农需秋季肥扫尾后，储备型农需逢 低拿货为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产， 已有部分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12 月份将继续高负荷生产，目 前预收订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，冬储提供需求支撑，尿素 价格预计窄幅波动，呈现一定的抗跌性。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。终端交易顺畅，虽日产一直处于同比偏高位置，但库 存维持去化，且本期已降至同比偏低水平。综合来看，基本面及下游积极性尚 可，可支撑盘面进一步走强。 2025 年 12 月 3 日，尿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - PP downstream is in the end of the peak season, with limited follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving. The BOPP film price has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. Although the National Development and Reform Commission's meeting gives some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawstring decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 3, some overhaul devices restarted, the PP enterprise开工率 rose to about 82%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to about 31%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price fluctuated at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the number of overhaul devices decreased recently [1] Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6382 yuan/ton, down 0.39%, below the 20 - day moving average. The open interest decreased by 9112 lots to 459901 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was reported at 6150 - 6450 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 3, some overhaul devices restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to about 82%, at a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawstring decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 70 tons week - on - week, 5.5 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fluctuated around 63 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 750 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - As of the close on December 3rd, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Pulp rose over 3%, Shanghai tin rose over 2%, palladium and polysilicon rose nearly 2%, and double - offset paper and styrene rose over 1%. In terms of declines, lithium carbonate, eggs, and coking coal fell over 2%, while glass, caustic soda, soda ash, ethylene glycol, and alumina fell over 1%. Stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 3rd, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Pulp, Shanghai tin, palladium, polysilicon, double - offset paper, and styrene had gains, while lithium carbonate, eggs, coking coal, glass, caustic soda, soda ash, ethylene glycol, and alumina had losses. Stock index futures generally declined, and treasury bond futures showed mixed trends [4][5] 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing strength during the day. After a mudslide accident at an Indonesian copper mine, it plans to restart large - scale production in stages from the second quarter of 2026. Copper production in China is expected to increase in December. The copper smelting processing fee fluctuates narrowly around $42 per dry ton. After the peak season, the apparent demand for copper decreased month - on - month, but downstream power grids and energy storage still provided rigid support. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully reflected in the disk, and the subsequent upward momentum is weak, but the domestic industry's production reduction intention promotes a tight balance expectation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation of long - term processing fees [7] 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and moved higher but declined during the day. In November, the domestic monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. The capacity utilization rate in December is expected to remain high, but there may be a seasonal reduction in salt - lake lithium extraction. The production of downstream intermediate products continued to increase in November, but the growth rate slowed down. The inventory in November increased slightly. The decline in the disk is mainly due to the expected increase in supply, but the strong downstream demand provides certain resistance to the decline [8][9] 3.2.3. Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the overall oil production in 2026. Eight additional voluntary - cut producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended, and the overall oil inventory has increased slightly. The U.S. crude oil production is at a historically high level, but the number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased significantly. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined due to the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, but it is difficult to reach an agreement in the near future. The U.S. and Venezuela's military confrontation has intensified, causing concerns about supply disruptions. The crude oil market is still in a state of oversupply, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10] 3.2.4. Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate rebounded last week. The expected asphalt production in December decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream start - up rate mostly declined. The national asphalt shipment increased, and the refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. The asphalt start - up rate will increase slightly this week. The demand will weaken further in the future, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [12] 3.2.5. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of拉丝, decreased. The PP enterprise start - up rate increased, and the production ratio of the standard product 拉丝 increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space of PP is expected to be limited in the near future [13][14] 3.2.6. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate decreased slightly. The downstream start - up rate of PE decreased, and the orders of agricultural film decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, and the downstream start - up rate is expected to decline. The downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space of plastics is expected to be limited in the near future [15] 3.2.7. PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region increased. The PVC start - up rate continued to increase. The downstream start - up rate was basically stable. Concerns about PVC exports to India have been alleviated, but the export order signing decreased last week. The social inventory increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. New production capacity has been put into operation. The upward space of PVC is limited in the near future [16][17] 3.2.8. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and moved low, closing up after intraday fluctuations. The spot price in the Shanxi market remained unchanged, and the price of Mongolian coal increased slightly. The number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles gradually recovered after the holiday, and the domestic mine production increased. The coking enterprises are in serious losses, but the downstream steel mills have rigid demand. The coking coal is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, but the market has support. Attention should be paid to domestic key meetings [18] 3.2.9. Urea - Urea opened high and moved higher, showing strength during the day. The futures market has rebounded for several days, and the spot trading volume has increased. Some factories have stopped selling. The gas - based devices have started to limit production. The current daily output remains between 190,000 and 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is mainly for low - price purchases. The compound fertilizer factories' start - up rate is increasing, and the winter storage provides demand support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate narrowly and show certain resistance to decline. The inventory is expected to continue to decline smoothly [19][20]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/03 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1.美油主力合约收跌 1.23%，报 58.59 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌 1.28%， 报 62.36 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.84%报 4238.70 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0. ...

第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-02 2025-12-01 2025-11-28 2025-11-27 2025-11-26 热点资讯 1.国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是 优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。 2.磷酸铁锂行业正在发生一场集体提价行动，近期多家龙头企业已向客户发出明确的涨价通知。龙蟠科技工作人员称，近期行 业确实有相关涨价的行情，公司正与客户沟通涨价事由。 3.经合组织发布最新经济展望报告，今明两年，预计全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与 ...

今日沪铜高开高走，日内偏强，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 数据持续疲软，最新数值为 48.2，不仅低于前值 48.7，弱于市场预期的 48.6。全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流 事故停产后，计划自 2026 年第二季度（7 月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏 紧预期将有缓解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在 10 月、11 月检修，预计随着工厂的复 产，12 月铜国内产量将增加。铜冶炼厂加工费持续在 42 美元/干吨附近窄幅波动，冶炼 厂依靠副产品及长协订单维持经营成本。需求方面，截至 2025 年 9 月，铜表观消费量为 132.18 万吨，金九银十旺季结束后，铜价依然保持增长趋势，下游高价抵触情绪下，买 兴下降，铜表观需求环比减少，但下游电网及储能依然刚需托底，需求量难有大幅度的 减少。综合来看，降息预期基本在盘面充分反映兑现，后续支撑乏力，中国铜冶炼厂采 购联合体（CSPT）表示，其成员已达成减产共识，计划在 2026 年减产 10% 以上，刺激铜 价上涨，消息面支撑有限，铜价上方空间不足。 【冠通期货研究报告】 冶炼端消息拉涨行情 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 2 日 【行情分析】 资料来源：同花 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1710 1710 0 河南 1680 1680 0 山东 1680 1690 -10 山西 1540 1550 -10 江苏 1680 1680 0 安徽 1680 1680 0 黑龙江 1760 1740 20 内蒙古 1770 1750 20 河北东光 1690 1690 0 山东华鲁 1680 1670 10 江苏灵谷 1710 1690 20 安徽昊源 1650 1630 20 山东05基差 -73 -77 4 山东01基差 -87 -86 -1 河北05基差 -63 -67 4 河北01基差 -77 -76 -1 1-5价差 66 59 7 5-9价差 -14 -9 -5 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 7887 7937 -50 中东FOB 384 384 0 美湾FOB 369 369 0 埃及FOB 460 460 0 波罗的海FOB 367.5 367.5 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓单 免责声 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 02, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - As of December 02, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Synthetic rubber rose nearly 4%, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon fell over 2%. Different futures varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and economic data, leading to different price trends and future expectations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 02, domestic futures main contracts had mixed results. Synthetic rubber, silver, pulp, coke, and container shipping to Europe routes had significant increases, while polysilicon, asphalt, palladium, platinum, and industrial silicon had notable drops. Stock index futures and bond futures also mostly declined [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. After the Indonesian copper mine accident, production is planned to restart in phases from Q2 2026, easing the tight supply expectation. December domestic copper production is expected to increase. Demand is supported by the power grid and energy storage, but the buying interest has decreased. The CSPT plans to cut production by over 10% in 2026, but the upside for copper prices is limited [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. In November, domestic production increased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate was high. In December, production is expected to continue to increase, but there may be seasonal production cuts in salt - lake lithium extraction. Demand has entered a stable growth stage, and the supply - demand balance has slightly eased, with the price consolidating at a high level [10][12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and 8 countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The demand peak has ended, and US oil inventories have increased. The number of active oil drilling platforms has decreased. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and geopolitical tensions may cause supply disruptions. Crude oil is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate increased slightly last week, and the December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory ratio is at a low level. With the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15] 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but the start - up rate of the plastic weaving industry decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. Downstream demand is in the off - peak season, and the price increase space is limited [16][17] 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate remained stable. Downstream demand, especially for agricultural films, is in the off - peak season. With new capacity coming on stream, the supply has increased. The price increase space is limited [18] 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate increased, and the downstream start - up rate was stable. The cancellation of India's BIS policy and anti - dumping tax has limited impact. The inventory is high, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season in December, so the upside is limited [19][20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the inventory is shifting to the upstream. Downstream demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Urea prices were strong during the day. The gas - based plants are starting to cut production. Agricultural demand is mainly for reserve purchases, and compound fertilizer plants are in the winter storage production stage. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is supported, so the price is expected to be strong in the short term [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the late peak season, with limited follow - up of orders. The supply has new capacity put into operation and an increase in maintenance devices. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream start - up rate rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawing materials rose to about 28.5% [1][4] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly and is now at a high level in the same period in recent years. The cost side has low - level fluctuations in oil prices, and the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of Guangxi Petrochemical of CNPC was put into operation in mid - October [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting on price competition gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, and the short - term upward space of PP was limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6391 yuan/ton, the highest was 6426 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6410 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.08%. The position decreased by 19,931 lots to 469,013 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions showed mixed trends. The drawing materials were reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 2, new maintenance devices were added, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 28, the downstream start - up rate of PP rose 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 735,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil contract 02 fluctuated around $63/barrel, and China CFR propylene price rose by $15/ton week - on - week to $750/ton [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月02日 【行情分析】 12月2日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月28日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.39个百分点至44.3%，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜订单开始下降， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存略有下降，包装膜订单同样小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍 处于近年同期偏低位水平。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，俄 罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗 普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大， 原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10月投产，70万吨/年 的中石油广西石化11月投产。塑料开工率略有上升。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单开始下降，旺季成色 不及预期，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求开始减少，农膜价格开始下跌，预计后续下游开工 率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货。国家发展改 革委会同有关部门 ...