光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货煤化工商品日报 二、市场信息 尿素 1、郑商所数据：9 月 17 日尿素期货仓单 8268 张，较上一交易日-11 张，有效预报 49 张。 2、隆众数据：9 月 17 日尿素行业日产 19.56 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.35 万吨(修正：上一 工作日日产为 19.21 万吨）；较去年同期增加 0.10 万吨；行业开工率 83.59%，较去年同期 87.26% 下降 3.67 个百分点。 3、9 月 17 日国内各地区小颗粒尿素现货价格（隆众；元/吨）：山东 1650，持平；河南 1660， 持平；河北 1680，持平；安徽 1660，持平；江苏 1650，持平；山西 1530，-10。 4、隆众数据：截至 9 月 17 日尿素企业库存 116.53 万吨，较上周+3.26 万吨，+2.88%。 纯碱 & 玻璃 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格偏弱震荡，主力 ...

1. Index Trends - On September 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to close at 3876.34 points, with a trading volume of 1006.679 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to close at 13215.46 points, with a trading volume of 1370.059 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.95% with a trading volume of 493.296 billion yuan, opening at 7478.41, closing at 7554.81, with a daily high of 7564.82 and a low of 7461.41 [1] - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.96% with a trading volume of 445.549 billion yuan, opening at 7184.26, closing at 7260.04, with a daily high of 7265.39 and a low of 7159.67 [1] - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.17% with a trading volume of 155.034 billion yuan, opening at 2942.88, closing at 2952.78, with a daily high of 2960.31 and a low of 2935.78 [1] 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 71.18 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and machinery significantly pulling the index up [2] - The CSI 500 rose 69.05 points from the previous close, with power equipment, automotive, and non - banking finance sectors significantly pulling the index up [2] - The SSE 50 rose 4.96 points from the previous close, with electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and coal sectors pulling the index up, while national defense and military industry, food and beverage, and non - banking finance sectors pulling it down [2] 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 13.2, IM01 of - 80.36, IM02 of - 235.47, and IM03 of - 440.87 [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 14.27, IC01 of - 72.76, IC02 of - 190.19, and IC03 of - 353.51 [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 1.4, IF01 of - 11.54, IF02 of - 33.52, and IF03 of - 59.3 [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.48, IH01 of 0.35, IH02 of 0.86, and IH03 of 3.82 [12] 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different times (e.g., at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267, etc.) are provided [20] - For IC contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs are presented, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222 [21][22] - For IF contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs are shown, like at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678 [22] - For IH contracts, roll - over point differences and annualized costs are given, for example, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707 [26]

农产品日报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周三，玉米 11 月合约偏弱运行，期价继续以小阴线收盘。现货市场方面，9 月 | | | | 中旬之后，产区新玉米上市进度预期提升，丰产压力也随之增加。辽宁产区因北 | | | | 港玉米价格的下调，产区价格也有所松动。黑龙江东部目前农场粮少量上市，东 | | | | 部及绥化深加工收购价格较高，支撑产地行情。 昨日华北地区玉米价格继续偏 | | | | 弱走势。山东深加工企业早间剩余车辆维持高位，多数深加工企业今日玉米价格 | | | | 继续下调 10-20 元/吨，目前主流价格参考 2260-2400 元/吨。河北、河南深加工 | 震荡下行 | | | 玉米价格也继续下跌 20-30 元/吨。 昨日销区市场玉米价格暂时稳定，整体购销 | | | | 活动较为活跃，饲料企业头寸时间缩短，订单提货较难，现货库存稍显紧张，部 | | | | 分地区市场价格上涨。技术上，玉米 11 月合约自 9 月初遇阻下行，期价已连续 | | | | 近一周的时间处于下行过程中， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. The prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost - side oil price fluctuations, and seasonal demand changes [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year. U.S. crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts rose on Wednesday. Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten supply, the market will remain relatively well - supplied before October. High - sulfur fuel oil has support from downstream demand, and both FU and LU are expected to fluctuate, with attention to crude oil price fluctuations [2] - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. Supply may decline slightly in September, and demand is supported by the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" season. The price may rise further, with attention to oil price and demand [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA maintenance is ending. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support from increased polyester start - up and potential improvement in TA fundamentals [4] - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Although production is increasing, there are weather disturbances in some areas, and downstream tire start - up has rebounded. Social inventories are decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply. Domestic supply is at a low level due to maintenance, and overseas supply is relatively stable. The price is expected to enter a phase - bottom [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are expected to rebound slightly. Supply is high, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports are affected by anti - dumping policies. However, the market is re - trading "anti - involution", and previous short positions are taking profits [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes of spot and futures, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy and chemical products on September 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Market News - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels in the week ending September 12, due to record - low net imports and a jump in exports. Gasoline inventories decreased unexpectedly, and distillate inventories increased more than expected [11] - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis and basis rate trends of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][32][33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., which helps to analyze the price differences between different delivery months [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, and the ratio between fuel oil and asphalt, providing insights into the relative price relationships between different products [58][63][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE, which are important factors affecting the supply of these products [67][68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with over a decade of research experience in the futures derivatives market [72] - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and media exposure [73] - **邸艺琳**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with awards and media contributions [74] - **彭海波**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with relevant academic background and industry experience [75]

光大期货金融期货日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货金融期货日报 | | | 加权利率上行 | 4bp | 至 | 1.54%。近期债市遭遇了债基大量赎回带来的利空压制， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 | 月 | CPI | 同比转负、但 | | PPI 筑底回升，社融增幅如期回落，实体融资需求偏 | | | | | | | 弱，居民存款搬家现象持续。短期来看，基本面多空交织背景下，债市尚未 | | | | | | 出现明确拐点信号，仍以宽幅震荡看待。 | | 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天低开高走，创业板指午后涨超 2%，再创三年多以来新高。个股跌 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 多涨少，沪深京三市约 2800 股飘绿，今日成交 2.4 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 | | | | 0.37%，深成指涨 1.16%，创业板指涨 1.95%。8 月经济数据发布，消费、投 | | | | 资等需求端指标环比均有 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格震荡偏强运行，主力01合约收盘价1686元/吨，日环比涨0.42%。 | 偏强 | | | 现货市场多数探涨，昨日主流地区市场价格上调10～20元/吨不等，山东、河南地区 | | | | 市场价格分别为1650元/吨、1660元/吨，日环比分别涨10元/吨、20元/吨。基本面来 | | | | 看，尿素供应继续回升，昨日行业日产量19.20万吨，日环比增0.08万吨。价格上涨 | | | | 后对需求形成压制，现货市场成交氛围有所下降。昨日主流地区产销率降至5%~40% | | | | 区间，个别地区仍维持100%以上，区域间分化明显扩大。宏观情绪及商品市场情绪 | | | | 积极给尿素期货市场提供支撑，且煤炭期价走强、国际市场及印度招标方面后续或 | | | | 仍有题材发酵可能。预计短期尿素期货价格仍能保持坚挺运行状态，但由于供需暂 | | | | 无明显扭转，尿素期价上方压制也较多，不建议过分看涨。关注尿 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，美联储议息会议降息概率升至 90%以上，接近充分定 库 | | | 价，市场偏谨慎看待，但整体上投资者对流动性存在再宽松预期。库存方面，LME | | | 存下降 1675 吨至 150950 吨；Comex 库存增加 926 吨至 283832 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 | | 铜 | 3049 吨至 33692 吨，BC 铜增加 321 吨至 11794 吨。需求方面，下游畏惧高铜价及宏观 | | | 不确定性，采购积极性较弱。美联储降息 25 个基点几乎完全定价，市场关注在于是否 | | | 存利多落地表现，届时若美股出现大幅回落表现，可能会带动有色市场情绪偏弱，因此 | | | 该时间节点前后波动率预期加大下多看少动，但站在政策预期及需求旺季的角度，铜 | | | 价仍可偏强看待。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2962 元/吨，跌幅 0.9%，持仓增仓 17050 手至 30.4 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏 ...

1. Index Trends - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to close at 3861.87 points, with a trading volume of 989.786 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.45% to close at 13063.97 points, with a trading volume of 1351.615 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.92% with a trading volume of 474.734 billion yuan, opening at 7426.41, closing at 7483.63, with a daily high of 7487.07 and a low of 7364.73 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 0.75% with a trading volume of 435.21 billion yuan, opening at 7152.19, closing at 7190.99, with a daily high of 7195.42 and a low of 7080.43 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index fell 0.21% with a trading volume of 613.728 billion yuan, opening at 4539.92, closing at 4523.34, with a daily high of 4552.42 and a low of 4494.79 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.5% with a trading volume of 155.43 billion yuan, opening at 2969.23, closing at 2947.82, with a daily high of 2974.95 and a low of 2942.3 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 68.06 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, machinery, and computers having a significant positive impact [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 53.63 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics, automobiles, and computers having a significant positive impact [2]. - The SSE 300 fell 9.72 points from the previous close, with sectors such as computers, electronics, and machinery having a positive impact, while non - ferrous metals, non - banking finance, and banks had a negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 fell 14.8 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector having a positive impact, while food and beverage, non - banking finance, and banks had a negative impact [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the average daily basis for IM00 was - 26.35, IM01 was - 95.74, IM02 was - 248.6, and IM03 was - 455.45 [12]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis for IC00 was - 18.99, IC01 was - 77.14, IC02 was - 186.78, and IC03 was - 345.03 [12]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis for IF00 was - 3.61, IF01 was - 12.63, IF02 was - 33.84, and IF03 was - 58.86 [12]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis for IH00 was 0.17, IH01 was - 0.2, IH02 was 0.6, and IH03 was 3.13 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The document provides data on the roll - over point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different 15 - minute intervals [23][25][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating on the stronger side [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is affected by environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, and the short - term thread disk is expected to run with an upward bias. The iron ore market has a complex supply - demand situation, and the price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke markets are influenced by production and demand factors, and the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are boosted by market sentiment, but the fundamental driving force is limited, and the prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The thread disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the thread 2601 contract was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 21,800 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume declined slightly. With environmental protection inspections and production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to run with an upward bias [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2601 price of iron ore futures rose yesterday, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.9% from the previous trading day, with 400,000 lots traded and a decrease of 3,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices rose. The supply has increased, and the demand has recovered after production restrictions, but the steel mill profitability has declined, and the inventory has increased. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1240.5 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 4.46%, with an increase of 33,930 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. The supply side has normal production, and the demand side has a slowdown in procurement. The short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - **Coke**: The coke disk rose yesterday. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 46.5 yuan/ton or 2.75%, with a decrease of 406 lots in positions. Spot prices rose. After two rounds of price cuts, the profitability of coke enterprises has declined, and the supply is sufficient. With production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term disk is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5944 yuan/ton, up 1.02% month - on - month, with an increase of 7995 lots in positions to 335,700 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Driven by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market news, the price is expected to oscillate on the stronger side, but the upward space is limited [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened on Tuesday. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.71% month - on - month, with a decrease of 810 lots in positions to 212,400 lots. Market prices in various regions rose. Affected by the overall strength of the black sector and positive market sentiment, but with limited fundamental driving force, the price is expected to follow the black sector and oscillate slightly on the stronger side [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents the contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, as well as the profit, price spreads, and other data of some commodities, including the contract spreads between different months, the basis of different contracts, and the changes in spot prices in different regions [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][8][9][11][15] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of the main contracts of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][20][22][23][24][25] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the inter - period contract spreads of various black commodities, including steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][41] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: It shows the inter - commodity contract spreads of some black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and steel, the ratio of steel to iron ore, the ratio of steel to coke, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, etc. [43][44][45][47] - **3.5 Steel Profits**: It shows the profit trends of steel, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the main steel contracts [48][49][51][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 11 - month contract of corn is in a downward trend. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price has no significant fluctuations. The downstream feed mills mainly use inventory and make small - scale replenishments. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the January contract can break through the price low in mid - August. Short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans reached a two - week high on Tuesday. The domestic soybean meal spot market continues to fluctuate. The previous negative factors in the supply - demand report and the spot market have been digested. With sufficient domestic supply and increased apparent consumption, the price will mainly fluctuate. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. The price of domestic oil futures has strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise and breaking through the 10,000 - yuan/ton mark. The market atmosphere is generally optimistic, and the oils are in a strong - side fluctuation. The strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs continues to rebound. The futures price has lifted from the bottom due to spot market support, but the inference of a downward trend in production capacity needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position. Continuously monitor the impact of the breeding side's replenishment and elimination sentiment on supply and market sentiment [2]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side still exerts pressure on the price. The market is waiting for policy guidance, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 11 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price continuing to decline. New grain is gradually being listed, and the price of the sales area has not changed. The overall market sentiment is bearish. In the short - term, beware of price rebounds after a sharp decline, and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to optimistic export expectations and uncertain crop yields. The domestic soybean meal spot market is in a volatile state, and the strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays. The domestic oil futures market strengthened, with rapeseed oil leading the rise. The market atmosphere is optimistic, and the strategy is to buy volatility or sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rebounded, and the futures price lifted from the bottom. However, the trend of production capacity decline needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position [2]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs is fluctuating weakly, and the spot price continues to decline. The supply side exerts pressure on the price, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [2]. Market Information - The外交部 has no information on whether Chinese and US leaders will talk this week [3]. - Kenanga Research predicts that edible oil prices, including palm oil, will remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [3]. - OPEC+ representatives will hold a meeting in Vienna on September 18 - 19 to discuss updating member countries' production capacity estimates [3]. - As of the end of the 37th week (September 13), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills increased by 2.71% to 64.99%, and the total soybean crushing volume increased by 101,300 tons to 2.4298 million tons [3]. - Huachu.com will conduct a central reserve frozen pork rotation and delivery auction on September 18, with 15,000 tons of domestic frozen pork up for auction [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Presented the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [6][7][11][15]. - **Contract Basis**: Presented the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [14][17][18][24]. Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has won multiple awards and has rich experience [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many awards [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics and rich experience [26].