有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏 | | | 观方面，美联储内部就降息路径继续产生较大分歧，里士满联储主席巴尔金称利率已 | | | 至中性水平，而理事米兰表示数据支持进一步降息，今年幅度或超 100 个基点。国内方 | | | 面，央行工作会议上明确 2026 年重点工作，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，灵活高效 | | | 运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。库存方面，LME 库存增加 3525 吨至 146075 吨； | | 铜 | Comex 库存增加 4996 吨至 461654 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 2989 吨至 93271 吨，BC 铜维 | | | 持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。 | | | 贵金属表现持续乐观下，做多情绪正在传导，尽管当下铜基本面表现并不乐观，但市场 | | | 对 26 年经济复苏仍存较强预期，资金成为短线铜价的主要推手，调整节奏被延后，操 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract hit the daily limit at 137,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 8,000 yuan/ton to 127,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 7,250 yuan/ton to 124,250 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 6,700 yuan/ton to 117,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,860 tons to 23,141 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the lithium carbonate output is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month to 97,970 tons. In terms of demand, in January 2026, the output of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 4.43% month - on - month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10.03% month - on - month to 363,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons [3]. - There was a resonance between stocks and commodities. For lithium carbonate futures, funds are more sensitive to bullish news. Due to geopolitical and policy factors, the market is worried about the actual supply of lithium resources. If the adjustment of the industrial pricing mechanism progresses smoothly, the cathode production schedule may need to be revised upwards. The price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 137,940 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026, up 7,960 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 134,360 yuan/ton, up 7,360 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,640 US dollars/ton, up 105 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 2,475 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 127,500 yuan/ton, up 8,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 124,250 yuan/ton, up 7,250 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 117,500 yuan/ton, up 6,700 yuan [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 161,500 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan. The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, while the prices of some battery cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts 1 - 4 show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9] 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts 5 - 10 show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][17] 3.2.3 Spreads - Charts 11 - 22 show the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., as well as the basis from 2024 to 2026 [17][18][22] 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts 16 - 20 show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [24][26][28] 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts 21 - 24 show the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, lithium cobaltate battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [30][34] 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts 25 - 28 show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, other links, and the production cost trends from 2024 to 2026 [36][38][41]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格继续偏强运行，主力05合约收盘价1778元/吨，涨幅0.74%。现货 | 偏强 | | | 市场继续走强，主流地区市场价格上调10~30元/吨不等，山东、河南地区市场价格 | | | | 分别提升至1740元/吨、1750元/吨，日环比分别上涨20元/吨、30元/吨。1月之后 | | | | 气头企业部分将有复产，尿素供应水平略有恢复。昨日行业日产量20.4万吨，日环 | | | | 比提升0.14万吨。需求跟进开 分化， 数主流地区产销率仍保持在100%以上，但 | | | | 多数地区产销回落至60% 90%区间，区域间表现开 分化。新一轮印标价格较上 | | | | 一轮有所提升，但目前尚 有我国货源参与迹象，故印标对国内市场情绪影响程度 | | | | 将逐渐减弱。预计短期尿素期货价格坚挺震荡运行，盘面连续多日上涨后上方空间 | | | | 已较为有限，关注主力合约上方整数关卡压力位。后续印标最终结果、出口 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 8,900 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.37%, and open interest increasing by 17,319 lots to 235,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot remained stable at 9,603 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2605 closing at 59,365 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.69%, and open interest decreasing by 2,218 lots to 72,000 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type recycled polysilicon material was raised to 53,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 53,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,865 yuan/ton [2]. - The main production area of industrial silicon continues to shift northward. Although there are production cuts due to environmental controls, it is difficult to offset the decline in demand. Polysilicon has limited production cuts, silicone has joint production cuts, and aluminum alloy has environmental production cuts. Industrial silicon has cost support but no upward driving force, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [2]. - Although the recent increase in battery cells has led to price increases in the photovoltaic industry chain, due to the blockage in the component link, the effect of further price increases is limited, and downstream industries have further expanded production cuts. In January, with industry self - discipline and joint production cuts in silicon materials, polysilicon is expected to have an unexpected reduction in supply, providing strong support. At the same time, due to the exchange's risk control and position limits, the upward premium space is tightened. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by silicon material factories, downstream purchasing sentiment, and inventory dynamics in the industrial chain [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - Analysis of the price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon on January 6, including futures prices, open interest changes, spot prices, and spot - futures basis. Evaluation of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon and polysilicon, and corresponding investment suggestions [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,730 yuan/ton on January 5 to 8,900 yuan/ton on January 6, an increase of 170 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades of industrial silicon remained stable, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 50 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 456 to 10,687, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,175 tons to 51,155 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,750 tons to 448,400 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 58,645 yuan/ton on January 5 to 59,365 yuan/ton on January 6, an increase of 720 yuan/ton. The prices of various spot grades of polysilicon increased or remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 5,865 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 310 to 4,340, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 81,000 tons to 120,900 tons. The total social inventory increased by 26,000 tons to 308,000 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 13,700 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades, grade spreads, regional spreads of industrial silicon, as well as electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][9][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the futures inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, weekly industrial silicon industry inventories and inventory changes, weekly polysilicon inventories, and weekly DMC inventories [21][22][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, polysilicon processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and aluminum alloy cost - profit [26][28][31].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3111 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 上涨 7 元/吨，涨幅为 0.23%，持仓增加 1.46 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2930 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3200 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.66 万吨。央行 | | | | 工作会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息 | | | | 等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放 | | | | 均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。货币政策仍有宽松预 | | | | 期，对市场情绪有一定 提振。近期铁水及螺纹产量均有所回升，最新螺纹周度产量环比回升 3.83 万吨至 | | | | 188.22 万吨 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.76%，报收 65.14 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 1.05%， 认为，近期市场情绪偏暖、预期偏强是近期行情驱动的主要因素之一，且未来政策 | 偏强震 | | | 报收 14855 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 25992 手至 91.59 万手。国际市场方面， | | | | 海外宏观扰动不断，美元指数仍在 98-99 区间震荡，美棉期价重心缓慢上移。国 | | | | 内市场方面，郑棉主力合约继续增仓上行，夜盘站上 15000 元/吨整数关口。我们 | | | | 层面仍有值得期待的事情。展望未来，在当前情绪下，短期郑棉仍有上行驱动，但 | 荡 | | | 高位或有一定分歧，中长期来看，棉价上方仍有一定空间。后续关注点，一是下游 | | | | 纺织企业春节前补库动作；二是明年一季度，宏观层面是否会降准降息，以及通常 | | | | 在 4 月 10 号左右公布的新一轮棉花目标价格补贴政策细则。 | | | ...

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 补栏淘汰意愿变化对产能的影响。 | | | --- | --- | | 周二，生猪期货反弹，主力 2603 合约盘中震荡向上，日收涨 1.29%，报收 11810 元/吨。卓创数据显示，昨日中国生猪日度均价 12.5 元/公斤，环比涨 0.06 元/公 | | | 斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价 13 元/公斤，环比涨 0.18 元/公斤，四川平， | | | 山东、广东、辽宁涨。大体重生猪需求较好，养殖端有压栏增重情绪，生猪实际 | | | 生猪 供应偏紧，支撑生猪现货价格上涨。我的农产品公布数据显示，12 月，规模长 | 震荡 | | 能繁母猪存栏环比下降 0.18%，中小散环比下降 1.19%，综合环比降幅 0.22%，能 | | | 繁母猪存栏环比延续下降，对期货市场形成支撑，远月合约增仓向上。建议设置 | | | 动态止盈，关注生猪期货主力合约长期均线的技术表现。 | | 二、市场信息 1、 印度尼西亚贸易部表示，印尼已将 1 月份毛棕榈油参考价格定为每吨 915 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is weak, and the market's long - position funds are lackluster. The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Specifically, the prices of crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to be in a state of oscillation. [1][2][4][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views 1.1 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices dropped again. The WTI February contract closed down $1.19 to $57.13 per barrel, a decline of 2.04%. The Brent March contract closed down $1.06 to $60.70 per barrel, a decline of 1.72%. The SC2602 contract closed at 426.1 yuan per barrel, down 1.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.28%. - API data shows that last week, U.S. API crude oil inventories decreased by 2.766 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.747 million barrels in the previous week. API Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 665,000 barrels, with the previous value being an increase of 84,500 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.41 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.926 million barrels. - The U.S. and Venezuela are discussing the export of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. There is an expectation that Venezuelan oil supply and logistics may be re - structured, and the total supply is expected to increase. [1] 1.2 Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.73% to 2,479 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.27% to 2,925 yuan per ton. - In the supply side, Singapore is expected to receive a stable arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes and blending components in the next few weeks, which will continuously increase the local inventory. The high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore will also continue to increase. It is expected that the overall fuel oil supply in Singapore will be in surplus in January. - In the demand side, the bunkering demand for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is weak due to holidays, while the high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering demand remains strong. [2] 1.3 Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.35% to 3,144 yuan per ton. - The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports has remained stable in the short term. The raw material supply of domestic refineries in January is not directly affected by the U.S. - Venezuela geopolitical event, but there are fewer cargoes in January - February. The far - month discount quotation of diluted asphalt has rebounded slightly, and there is uncertainty in future raw material supply. - The release of winter storage contracts by major refineries provides some bottom support for the market. It is expected that the asphalt price will be stable and slightly stronger. [2][4] 1.4 Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,150 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.06%. EG2605 closed at 3,838 yuan per ton, up 2.84%. The PX futures main contract 603 closed at 7,336 yuan per ton, up 1.75%. - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are individually differentiated, with an average sales estimate of about 50%. There is a game between the reality and expectation of PX. The polyester operating load may further decline in January - February. The supply of ethylene glycol has slightly narrowed, the demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate. [4] 1.5 Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 260 yuan per ton to 16,050 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 205 yuan per ton to 13,010 yuan per ton. - As of the week of January 2, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 451,200 tons, an increase of 17,300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 3.99%. The inventory in the bonded area of Qingdao was 93,100 tons, an increase of 7,600 tons from the previous period, an increase of 8.89%. - The precipitation in the producing areas has eased, the overseas peak - production season has more than one month left, the raw material prices are still supported, the downstream tire demand has weakened, and the end - of - year automobile policies are waiting for new policies. It is expected that the rubber price will oscillate. [4][6] 1.6 Methanol - On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,268 yuan per ton. The supply in January is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume will decline from the high level. In terms of demand, the Ningbo Fude plant is expected to be under maintenance until mid - January, but the new Shandong Lianhong plant is operating normally, and the total olefin demand is expected to have some support. - The decline in Iranian shipments will lead to a decline in arrivals in January, which will support the price, while the profit of MTO plants is currently being continuously compressed, which may form a negative feedback. It is expected that methanol will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. [6] 1.7 Polyolefin - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,180 - 6,380 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, there will be some temporary maintenance and shutdown actions in some upstream plants in January, especially PDH plants, and there are no new production capacity investment plans, so the supply is expected to decrease slightly. - In terms of demand, in early January, it will be supported by post - New Year's Day replenishment and pre - Spring Festival order rush. In late January, downstream factories will gradually shut down. It is expected that the polyolefin will still oscillate at the bottom. [6][8] 1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the prices of the PVC market in East, North, and South China all increased. The overall supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The 05 contract is still at a large premium. The PVC market shows a structure of weak reality and strong expectation, and the upward space is limited. It is expected that the PVC price will maintain a bottom - level oscillation. [8] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides daily data monitoring on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3. Market News - PVM Oil Company's Tamas Varga said it is too early to assess the impact of Maduro's arrest on the oil supply - demand balance, but it is obvious that oil supply will be sufficient in 2026. A December survey of market participants showed that respondents expect oil prices to face downward pressure in 2026 due to increased supply and weak demand. - API data shows the changes in U.S. API crude oil inventories, Cushing crude oil inventories, gasoline inventories, and distillate inventories last week. [12] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report provides line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][16][18] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report provides line charts of the basis of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [31][33][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides line charts of the spreads between different contracts for multiple energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][44][47] 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report provides line charts of the spreads between different varieties and the ratios of different varieties for multiple energy and chemical products, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [58][60][62] 4.5 Production Profits - The report provides line charts of the production profits and processing fees of multiple energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, etc. [66][68][69] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the research team members, including the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, including their educational background, honors, and work experience. [71][72][73] 6. Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127. [76]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the stock index is "volatile", and for the treasury bond is "relatively strong" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The market showed an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. The CSI A500 index rose over 2%, reaching a new high since January 2022. The A500ETF had significant net subscriptions, while the net short positions of the top 5 member units in IF increased. The relevant funds may not have significant net outflows after the New Year. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain within the oscillation range formed since October. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of the constituent stocks of the CSI 1000 in the third quarter was about 2.6%, which supports the current valuation and reduces the risk of liquidity. The spring rally may not be as intense as in previous years [1] - The main contracts of treasury bonds declined on Tuesday. The central bank conducted 16.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 296.3 billion yuan. The short - term money market is reasonably abundant, which is the biggest support for the bond market, but the stable economy, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts pose certain constraints. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [1][2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2026 - 01 - 06 Price | 2026 - 01 - 05 Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 3,161.8 | 3,098.8 | 63.0 | 2.03% | | IF | 4,778.0 | 4,697.0 | 81.0 | 1.72% | | IC | 7,786.4 | 7,596.0 | 190.4 | 2.51% | | IM | 7,762.4 | 7,639.0 | 123.4 | 1.62% | [3] Stock Indexes | Variety | 2026 - 01 - 06 Price | 2026 - 01 - 05 Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 3,158.8 | 3,099.7 | 59.0 | 1.90% | | CSI 300 | 4,790.7 | 4,717.7 | 72.9 | 1.55% | | CSI 500 | 7,814.1 | 7,651.2 | 162.9 | 2.13% | | CSI 1000 | 7,864.9 | 7,753.9 | 111.0 | 1.43% | [3] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2026 - 01 - 06 Price | 2026 - 01 - 05 Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.37 | 102.41 | - 0.048 | - 0.05% | | TF | 105.57 | 105.71 | - 0.135 | - 0.13% | | T | 107.70 | 107.86 | - 0.155 | - 0.14% | | TL | 110.93 | 111.32 | - 0.39 | - 0.35% | [3] Group 4: Market News - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index had 13 consecutive positive days, reaching a ten - year high, with a 1.5% increase. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 260.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The brain - computer interface sector had a daily limit surge, and sectors such as insurance, securities, and non - ferrous metals were also strong [4] - From 2024 to 2025, China achieved 18.3 million units of automobile trade - ins, with new energy vehicles accounting for nearly 60%, and 192 million units of home appliance trade - ins, with first - level energy - efficiency (water - efficiency) products accounting for over 90%. The trade - in policy drove consumer sales of 3.92 trillion yuan, benefiting 494 million consumers [4] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [5][6][7] Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of different - term treasury bond futures, inter - period spreads of different - term treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [12][13][14] Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - yen exchange rate [21][22][23]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高。宏观方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制 | | | 造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降至 47.9，已连续 10 个月低于 50。新订单已连续第四个月收 | | | 缩，出口订单仍然疲弱；就业人数连续第 11 个月下降，不过降幅有所放缓。库存方面， | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 2775 吨至 142550 吨；Comex 库存增加 3204 吨至 456657 吨；SHFE 铜 | | | 仓单增加 8507 吨至 90282 吨，BC 铜维持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端 | | | 订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。资金仍是短线铜价的主要推手，但也会带来不 | | | 确定性风险，操作上维系铜"趋势多头思维"，建议在元旦至春节这段期间多观察，利 | | | 用宏观或情绪扰动导致的回调机会分批逢低布局。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2605 收于 2773 元/吨，跌幅 0.72%，持仓减仓 ...