Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.3% to 73,180 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 72,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose 400 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 100 yuan/ton to 74,050 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 38,824 tons [3] - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials decreased by 22 tons to 16,491 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 115 tons to 17,529 tons. The weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 980 tons to 77,513 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 686 tons to 95,442 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons [3] - Although the long - position logic is weakened under the expectation of project复产, currently, the inventory depletion is accelerating. Before the actual复产 of the project, in the context of strong demand and pre - holiday stocking for the National Day, the downstream procurement demand will support the price. Attention should be paid to the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi [3] 3. Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 73,180 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 73,060 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan [5] - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone all increased to varying degrees [5] - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Other Products**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the prices of some ternary precursors, cathode materials, and other products also changed [5] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8] - **3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12] - **3.3 Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][20] - **3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][27] - **3.5 Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35] - **3.6 Inventory**: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate in 2025 [38][39][40] - **3.7 Production Costs**: Charts display the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42][43][44]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 1.24%，报收 67.67 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.07%，报收 13895 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 5664 手至 49.26 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15214 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 47 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15300 元/吨，较前一日上涨 | | | | 51 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心更多在于宏观层面，美联储 9 月议息 | | | | 会议临近，9 月降息概率接近 100%，大概率降息 25BP，美元指数震荡走弱对美棉 | | | 棉花 | 价格有一定驱动。USDA 报告对美棉数据调整不大，关注天气。国内市场方面， | 震荡 | | | 新棉即将大量上市，本年度新棉丰产预期较强，手摘棉价格坚挺，机采棉开秤价 | | | | 格或在 6.2-6.5 元/公斤之间，对郑棉期价有一定支撑。需求端，8 月社零数据公布， | | | | 社零同比增速放 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, industrial silicon trended strongly with oscillations. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.85%. The position decreased by 3,764 lots to 287,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,461 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 40 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also trended strongly with oscillations. The main contract 2511 closed at 53,670 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.51%. The position decreased by 4,433 lots to 128,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 1,045 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon has a mix of positive factors, and the market has undergone a phased recovery. The conference proposed setting limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminating backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establishing a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. The output in September continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remains, suppressing the price upside. There is still a self-discipline meeting for polysilicon to be held this week, and attention should be paid to whether new variables emerge [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both trended strongly with oscillations on September 16. There are positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has recovered. The regulatory measures for polysilicon are more moderate, but the inventory pressure remains, and attention should be paid to the self-discipline meeting [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,840 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon mostly increased, with increases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product rose by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 100 yuan to -40 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 49,905, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 130 tons to 249,990 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1,400 tons to 445,800 tons [3] Polysilicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts remained unchanged. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon increased, with the price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rising by 500 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product rose by 500 yuan/ton to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 500 yuan to -1,045 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,850, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 234,600 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon remained unchanged at 234,000 tons [3] Organic Silicon - The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices - Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19] 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][25] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [28][30][34]

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 09 月 17 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天探底回升。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超 3500 股飘红，今日成交 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2.36 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 0.04%，深成指涨 0.45%，创业板指涨 0.68%。8 月经济数据发布，消费、投资等需求端指标环比均有小幅走低，体现经济筑 | | | | 底企稳仍在路上，本轮行情主要计价中长期政策预期，当期基本面因素影响 | | | | 有限。长期来看，美联储 9 月大概率开启降息周期，市场预计年内降息 3 次， | | | A 股指 | 股的降息通道可能同时打开，利好权益资产的中长期股指。此前，中共中 | 偏强 | | | 央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补 | | | | 贴制度正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政 | | | | 政策，尽管总量仍有提升空间，但对于提升居民端收益水平影响较为直接。 | | | | 预计未来通过央行购买国债为中央政府筹集资金，推出更多普惠型财政支持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall price of crude oil is expected to rise steadily due to potential supply - side impacts from Russian production cuts and OPEC+ discussions on maximum production capacity [1]. - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Among them, the price of asphalt may have further upward potential with the arrival of the demand peak season, and the price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the short - term [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI October contract rose $1.22 to $64.52 per barrel (1.93% increase), Brent November contract rose $1.03 to $68.47 per barrel (1.53% increase), and SC2510 closed at 500.9 yuan per barrel, up 8.8 yuan (1.79% increase). Russian oil production may be cut due to attacks, and OPEC+ will discuss member countries' maximum production capacity. The market may price in the positive impact on the supply side, leading to a steady upward shift in the oil price center [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) rose 0.29% to 2795 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) rose 1.25% to 3395 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The prices of FU and LU are expected to fluctuate, and short - term attention should be paid to the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) rose 0.38% to 3411 yuan per ton. Supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and demand is supported in the north and affected by rainfall in the south. With the arrival of the demand peak season, the price may rise further, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and demand fulfillment [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4688 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; EG2601 closed at 4272 yuan per ton, down 0.37%. The prices of polyester products are expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of PTA are expected to improve, and the near - month basis of ethylene glycol is strong, but the far - month supply is loose [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) rose 45 yuan to 16040 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the peak production season overseas and the increase in downstream tire production, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2292 yuan per ton. The domestic supply is at a phased low, and overseas supply is stable. The Xingxing plant has resumed production, and the price is expected to enter a phased bottom [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was between 6780 - 6950 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season, the demand is improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upwards in the short - term [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the market prices in East, North, and South China all increased. The domestic real estate construction has stabilized, but the demand recovery is slow, and exports are affected. The price is expected to rebound slightly in the short - term but with limited upside [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. on September 17, 2025, as well as their changes compared with the previous day and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate [8]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ representatives plan to hold a meeting in Vienna on Thursday and Friday to discuss how to evaluate the maximum production capacity of member countries. There are disputes among member countries regarding production quotas [10]. - Russian oil producers may have to cut production after port and refinery attacks, and the attacks have led to a reduction of about 300,000 barrels per day in Russian refining capacity since August [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [12]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [30]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy - chemical products such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Displays the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [60]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: Presents the cash flow and production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Macro - factors such as progress in Sino - US negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts contributed to a positive market sentiment. However, domestic demand was weak, and there was a divergence between bulls and bears. Although there was a high probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut, the market was concerned about whether it would be a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" situation. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices could still rise [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Short - term alumina maintenance capacity returned, and raw material inventory decreased. Due to reduced ore shipments during the rainy season, ore prices rose, and the decline space of alumina was limited. Aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking during the week, and with the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices were supported. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. LME nickel inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable, and the price of low - grade laterite nickel ore decreased slightly. Stainless steel weekly inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was relatively tight. Under the influence of macro - sentiment and supply disruptions in Indonesia, nickel prices rose rapidly and faced correction pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro - factors were positive, but domestic demand was weak. LME inventory decreased by 1325 tons to 152625 tons, Comex inventory increased by 592 tons to 281669 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons. Downstream procurement was weak, but scrap copper substitution was beneficial. The market sentiment shifted, and copper prices turned from weak to strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Fed rate cut impact, volatility was expected to increase around the time of the rate - cut decision [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2601) closed at 3009 yuan/ton with a 2.84% increase, and its position increased by 7317 lots to 284,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum (AL2510) closed at 21060 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and its position decreased by 4743 lots to 178,000 lots. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20535 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase, and its position decreased by 7 lots to 8528 lots. SMM alumina prices fell to 3065 yuan/ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened [1]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: LME nickel rose 0.29% to 15425 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.11% to 122310 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 224484 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons to 24959 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly, and MHP supply was tight. Nickel prices faced correction pressure after a rapid rise [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the price of flat - water copper rose by 175 yuan/ton to 80910 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 100 yuan/ton to 74200 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1325 tons, and domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.7 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 180 yuan/ton to 17040 yuan/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 3950 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 68 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20930 yuan/ton, and the South China price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventory (LME + SHFE) increased by 4421 tons, and alumina social inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton to 124150 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose by 0.1% to 22305 yuan/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price rose by 0.4% to 273890 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts increased by 76 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than ten years of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles, and been interviewed by multiple media [50]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks the new energy industry chain [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more obvious weakness on the demand side. It is expected that the short - term thread disk will mainly operate in a narrow range. The iron ore price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend under the interweaving of multiple factors. Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to operate in an oscillating manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Rebar - The rebar futures market was strongly oscillating. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 65,900 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume recovered. From January to August, national fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12.9%, manufacturing investment up 5.1%, and infrastructure investment up 2.0%. The production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel from January to August was 579.07 million, 671.81 million, and 982.17 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 1.1%, - 2.8%, and 5.5%. In August, the production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel was 69.79 million, 77.37 million, and 122.77 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.0%, - 0.7%, and 9.7%. The daily output of crude steel in August was 2.496 million tons, the lowest daily output in the same period since 2018, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that the short - term rebar disk will mainly operate in a narrow range [1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 first fell and then rose, closing at 796 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The market prices of mainstream port spot varieties were weakly operating. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. On the demand side, after the resumption of production from production restrictions, the molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons to 144.5612 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 530,000 tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level oscillating trend [1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 3.76%, with an increase of 33,039 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of main coking raw coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 35 yuan to 770 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal market was strongly operating. On the supply side, affected by safety accidents, the production recovery in some areas was slow, and market trading was still weak. On the demand side, the molten iron output returned to a high level, but after the second round of coke price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises was further compressed, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was not high. It is expected that the short - term coking coal disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1688.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton or 3.88%, with a reduction of 122 lots in positions. In the spot market, the spot price of coke in ports rose. On the supply side, the purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in East and North China was lowered by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented. The current coke supply was relatively loose. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills drove the rapid recovery of molten iron output, but the performance of the finished product market was flat, and the inventory accumulation of finished products still existed. Some steel mills began to control the arrival rhythm. It is expected that the short - term coke disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.5 Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5906 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 2156 lots to 327,700 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions were 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of manganese silicon futures moved up. The mainstream steel tender pricing has not been announced yet. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of manganese silicon was still at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the recent output of rebar was at a relatively low level, and the demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of manganese ore was relatively firm, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4705 lots to 213,300 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions were about 5280 - 5330 yuan/ton, and the prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of ferrosilicon futures moved up. On the supply side, the short - term output of ferrosilicon was difficult to significantly decrease. On the demand side, the mainstream steel tender showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, and the demand of sample steel mills for ferrosilicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of ferrosilicon was rising, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will be affected by the black sector and mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and price differences between varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - This part includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][17][25]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry research field [53][54].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the agricultural products industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for each product: - Corn: Oscillating [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Edible Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: On Monday, the November corn contract accelerated its decline, approaching the previous low. The price of corn in the northern ports decreased slightly, influenced by the decline in futures prices. The price of new-season corn in the Northeast varied, with the price in Liaoning decreasing, while the deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang continued to raise the purchase price of new - season corn, providing some support. In the North China region, corn prices fluctuated, with more enterprises experiencing price drops. Some new - season corn was sporadically listed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. Technically, the November contract faced resistance during the rebound and then fell again, pressured in the 2180 - 2200 area. In the short term, beware of a rebound after reaching the support level, and in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to bumper harvests and cost reduction [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell from a two - week high, affected by seasonal harvest pressure and concerns about demand. The post - market crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63% and the harvest rate was 5%, both in line with market expectations. Strong crushing and export inspection data supported the market. Brazil started sowing soybeans for the 25/26 season, and drought in the western part might have disrupted the sowing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal declined, and the supply - demand report was bearish. The spot market was loose, and the market was mainly oscillating due to a lack of guiding themes. Short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Edible Oils**: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Canadian rapeseed prices fell due to weak exports and harvest pressure. US soybean oil prices declined following the fall of US soybeans and the expectation of increased supply. Domestically, edible oil futures prices oscillated. Although there is still an expectation of a bull market in the stock market, prices are volatile. The market sentiment for edible oils is relatively optimistic, but factors such as falling import costs and expected increased imports are bearish. Currently, the market is mainly oscillating. Strategies include trading volatility or selling put options [2]. - **Eggs**: On Monday, the main 2511 egg futures contract opened higher and closed higher, with a slight late - session correction. The daily increase was 3.39%, closing at 3143 yuan/500 kilograms. The spot price continued to rebound. Terminal demand improved, and the futures price was boosted by the spot price. Fundamentally, the number of brooding chicks supplemented from May to August continued to decline, corresponding to a decrease in the newly - opened production volume from September to December. If the culling intention of the breeding end remains stable or increases in the future, the egg - laying hen inventory will decrease, reducing the pressure on egg prices from the supply side. In the short term, the futures price is relatively strong due to spot price support, but the inference of a trend - like decline in production capacity needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and moderately participate with a light position [2]. - **Pigs**: On Monday, the main 2511 live - hog futures contract opened lower and then oscillated upward, closing with a 0.15% increase at 13275 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the daily average price of live hogs in China was 13.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg compared to the previous day. The average price in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was 13.3 yuan/kg, also down 0.18 yuan/kg. The demand side showed no obvious improvement, and the enthusiasm of breeders to sell increased, providing limited support for pig prices. Most pig prices across the country decreased slightly, and a few remained stable. In the short term, supply still exerts pressure on pig prices, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [3]. 3. Market Information - Malaysia's Sabah state government canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday due to floods in at least seven counties caused by continuous heavy rain [4]. - In August, India's palm oil imports were 990,528 tons (compared to 855,695 tons in July), soybean oil imports were 367,917 tons (compared to 492,336 tons in July), vegetable oil imports were 1,677,346 tons (compared to 1,579,041 tons in July), and sunflower oil imports were 257,080 tons (compared to 200,010 tons in July) [4]. - As of the week ending September 7, Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 529,500 tons, a 53.4% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of September 7, the commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 516,200 tons [4]. - As of the week ending September 12, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.36 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons month - on - month, 120,000 tons year - on - year, and 380,000 tons higher than the average of the past three years. Since May 23, the domestic soybean crushing volume has exceeded 2 million tons for 17 consecutive weeks. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will slightly increase this week, with the crushing volume around 2.4 million tons [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents various 1 - 5 contract spreads, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but does not provide detailed analysis of these spreads [6][7][8][12]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis for multiple contracts such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, without in - depth analysis [14][15][16][18][19][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Range - bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, on September 15, the A - share market had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the Wind All - A index rising 0.09% and a trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan. In the long term, the Fed is likely to start a rate - cut cycle in September, and the A - share rate - cut channel may open simultaneously, which is beneficial to the medium - and long - term stock indices. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly increase residents' income. The liquidity market is expected to continue but will show obvious structural characteristics, and sector rotation may accelerate [1] - For treasury bonds, on September 15, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan. In the short term, with mixed fundamentals, there is no clear inflection point signal in the bond market, which is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 10, IH was at 2,937.8, up 0.42% from the previous day; IF was at 4,432.4, up 0.14%; IC was at 6,863.4, down 0.14%; IM was at 7,151.0, down 0.21% [3] - **Stock Indices**: On September 10, the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,939.6, up 0.37%; the CSI 300 was at 4,445.4, up 0.21%; the CSI 500 was at 6,932.1, up 0.05%; the CSI 1000 was at 7,230.2, up 0.06% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 10, TS was at 102.35, down 0.03%; TF was at 105.43, down 0.14%; T was at 107.49, down 0.26%; TL was at 114.76, down 0.83% [3] 3.2 Market News - In August, the month - on - month decline of PPI ended after 8 consecutive months, turning flat from a 0.2% decline in the previous month. The year - on - year decline was 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, the first narrowing since March [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rates [20][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are expected to move up slightly due to escalating geopolitical tensions and improved domestic demand data [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakening and the high - sulfur fuel oil market having some support. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of crude oil on the cost side [3]. - Asphalt prices may rise further as the supply is expected to decline slightly in September and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices on the cost side [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PTA's fundamentals are expected to improve, and ethylene glycol's supply recovery needs to be followed up. Prices may follow the cost side [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to the results of China - US talks and the Fed meeting [6]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities at low prices [6]. - Polyolefin prices will fluctuate with raw materials as the demand is improving marginally and the supply remains stable [8]. - PVC prices are expected to fluctuate due to high supply, slow domestic demand recovery, and large inventory pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI October contract closed up $0.61 to $63.30 per barrel, a 0.97% increase; Brent November contract closed up $0.45 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.67% increase; SC2510 closed at 493.4 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan or 1.11%. Geopolitical tensions are rising, and domestic demand data has improved month - on - month. In August, the output of industrial crude oil above designated size was 18.26 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year increase, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2601 rose 2.41% to 2,799 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2511 fell 2.65% to 3,375 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weakening, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in Singapore has increased recently [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 fell 0.29% to 3,393 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,672 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; EG2601 closed at 4,288 yuan per ton, up 0.37%. PX supply has recovered, and the downstream TA maintenance is coming to an end. The fundamentals of polyester are expected to improve [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 rose 175 yuan to 15,995 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 155 yuan to 12,710 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [4][6]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level due to many domestic device overhauls and will gradually recover. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing. The price is expected to enter a stage bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The demand is improving marginally with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply remains stable. The price will fluctuate with raw materials [8]. - **PVC**: The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but the demand recovery is slow. The export is affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The total inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with September 12 [9]. 3.3 Market News - In August, the production of industrial crude oil above designated size increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The US is ready to impose new energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][17][20] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] 3.4.3 Inter - contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [47][49][52] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [62][66][70] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds and achievements [78][79][80] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83]