光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周一尿素现货市场走势分化，主流地区价格波动幅度在-20～20元/吨，目 山东、 | 看涨 | | | 河南地区市场价格分别在1820元/吨、1810元/吨，日环比分别上涨10 元/吨、持平。 | | | | 基本面来看，尿素供应 平小幅回升，昨日行业日产量19.94万吨，日环比增0.35万 | | | | 吨。需求端跟进情绪有所放缓，农业需求 部有所跟进，工业下游 合 行业开始 | | | | 预收 季 款项，但目 行业开工 平仍偏 ，对尿素需求力度有限。昨日主流地 | | | | 区现货产销率分化明 ，行业平均产销率仅为38%。整体来看，尿素期货市场 时缺 | | | | 有效驱动，短期震荡思路对 。后续印标价格结 、出口政策及国内商品市场整 | | | | 体走势扰动仍存，关注出口及国 市场消息面影响。 | | | 业 纯碱 | 周一纯碱现货报价稳定，贸易商环节报价跟随盘面情绪有所波动。昨日沙河及周边 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 7, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat at 63,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 250 yuan/ton to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose 250 yuan/ton to 60,950 yuan/ton. However, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,481 tons to 15,555 tons [3]. - In July, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. But due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly output has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile from May to June were basically flat, and it is expected that the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July will change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently, the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - In the current market, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipt level remains low, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Opportunities for short selling after the sentiment turns can still be monitored. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the prices may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Directory Research Views - Price changes: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: July supply is expected to increase, but weekly output has slowed. Imports are expected to change little. Demand has a slight month - on - month increase, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - Market outlook: Short - term strength due to various factors, but future hedging pressure exists, and prices may oscillate widely [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 380 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 1 US dollar/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium phosphate aluminum stone remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton, the prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles and micro - powder) fell by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the prices of various precursors, cathode materials, and battery cells mostly had small increases or remained unchanged [5] Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone over time [6][8] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [11][13][15] - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price differences [18][19][20] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [22][25][28] - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [30][32] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [35][37] - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [39] Team Member Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, etc. Has over a decade of commodity research experience and the team has won many awards [43] - Wang Heng: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44] - Zhu Xi: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [44] Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone [47] - Company phone: 021 - 80212222, fax: 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979, postal code: 200127 [47]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3061 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 11 元/吨，跌幅为 0.36%，持仓减少 4.13 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3130 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 9.59 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存增加 1.29%至 375.07 万吨，热卷库存增加 1.87%至 174.22 万吨。 | | | | 螺纹热卷库存均呈上升态势，钢材现实驱动有所走弱。上周盘面上涨后基差收敛，淡季下游对现货涨价的 | | | | 接受度不高，部分品种如唐山钢坯近期累库较快，对盘面价格走势存在一定压制。不过目前现货基本面矛 | | | | 盾并不明显，市场对于"反内卷"政策推进仍存有一定预期。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理运行为主。 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉环比下降 0.88%，报收 67.86 美分/磅，CF509 环比下跌 0.22%，报 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 13760 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 2264 手至 54.39 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂 价为 15176 元/吨，较前一日上涨 6 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15201 元/吨，较前一日上涨 1 元/吨。国际市场方面，关注宏观层面扰动，昨日美元指数 | | | 棉花 | 自低位小幅回升，美棉价格节后环比回落。国内市场方面，近期郑棉期价以区间 | 震荡 | | | 震荡为主，上行驱动有限。此前支撑郑棉上行的主要驱动是低库存及天气扰动， | | | | 但目前来看，新棉丰产预期较强，下游纺织企业开机负荷相对偏低，预计 9 月底 | | | | 棉花商业库存仍相对健康，棉价缺乏持续上行驱动。整体来看，预计短期棉价区 | | | | 间震荡为主，关注宏观及天气扰动。 | | | 白糖 | 消息方面，巴西 6 月出口糖和糖蜜 33 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 点评 7 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 8045 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.69%，持仓 减仓 5935 手至 38.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8777 元/吨，较上一交 易日上调 39 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格涨至 8250 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 240 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2508 收于 36515 元/吨，日内涨幅 2.86%，持仓增仓 25069 手至 10.24 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格涨至 36000 元/吨，现货对主力升 水转为贴水 515 元/吨。工业硅供给南增北减，增复产同期并存下整体库 存压力缓解有限，工业硅多空博弈激烈、波动率提升，仓单下降但社库积 累压制反弹空间，仍以高抛思路对待。多晶硅短期矛盾在于下游硅片原料 采购承压和行业反内卷减产预期加速。当前交易逻辑处于政策调控消息发 酵期内，盘面低位存在支撑，可选择观望或轻仓试多。重点关注双硅减产 执行力度，以及 PS/SI 比价回升后多 PS 空 SI 机会。 工业硅日报 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米跌破 2330 元整数关口支撑，期价增仓下行。玉米加权合约在连续两 个月减仓调整之后，持仓恢复增加，主力合约破位下行，吸引投机资金关注。现 货市场方面，受进口玉米拍卖影响，国内多地玉米现货报价承压下行。周末东北 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 玉米深加工收购价格有所下调，因进口玉米拍卖市场情绪略受影响，贸易商售粮 | | | | 心态有所松动，后续继续关注进口玉米的拍卖和成交情况。周末华北地区玉米价 | | | | 格整体偏弱运行，进口玉米拍卖持续投放，约每周投放 50 万吨左右，对市场心 | | | | 态有明显影响，在贸易商都有利润的情况下，出货积极性增加，市场供应量较大， | | | | 深加工企业玉米价格压价收购，价格偏弱。周末销区市场玉米价格继续坚挺运行。 | | | | 周五第二次进口玉米进行拍卖，市场购销情绪减弱，基本溢价 20-40 元/吨。产 | | | | 区贸易商远期看涨，但短期出货变现意愿增强，销区玉米高价成交有限，刚需为 | | | | ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 加工费临沂持稳，其他地区上调 50-70 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系加工费持稳，6/8 系加工费 | | --- | --- | | | 持稳，低碳铝杆下调 60 元/吨。氧化铝矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，近期财经会提出 | | | 落后产能退出消息，短期政策消息引导盘面偏强震荡，关注几内亚大选动态情况是否 | | | 带来新的扰动。加工新订单大幅缩减，电解铝需求走弱与低交割品间存在边际博弈。宏 | | | 观情绪回暖叠加国内政策托底，近月仍存挤仓风险下短期不宜过分看空，可持续跟踪 | | | 库存累库表现。铝合金整体跟随沪铝，但淡季驱动不足仍缺少同步冲劲。 | | | 隔夜 LME 镍跌 0.85%报 15130 美元/吨，沪镍跌 0.39%报 120710 元/吨。库存方面，昨 | | | 日 LME 库存维持 202470 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 227 至 20832 吨。升贴水来看， | | | LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 300 元/吨。镍矿方面，印尼内贸价格 | | | 延续下跌，周度升水出现小幅下跌。不锈钢产业链来看，镍铁价格成交 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the index trends, the influence of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock - index futures, and the point differences and annualized costs of stock - index futures contract roll - overs on July 7th. It provides detailed data on various indices and futures contracts. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On July 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02% to close at 3473.13 points with a trading volume of 476.197 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.7% to close at 10435.51 points with a trading volume of 732.444 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 0.24% with a trading volume of 264.835 billion yuan, opening at 6305.04, closing at 6327.14, with a daily high of 6333.51 and a low of 6303.86 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.19% with a trading volume of 165.759 billion yuan, opening at 5901.4, closing at 5900.41, with a daily high of 5910.8 and a low of 5889.6 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index fell 0.33% with a trading volume of 56.66 billion yuan, opening at 2736.01, closing at 2731.53, with a daily high of 2736.26 and a low of 2723.96 [1]. Sector Fluctuations' Influence on Indices - The CSI 1000 rose 14.94 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as utilities, computers, and basic chemicals significantly pulled the index up, while machinery, electronics, and biomedicine pulled it down [2]. - The CSI 500 rose - 11.03 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors like utilities, non - bank finance, and real estate significantly pulled the index up, while machinery, electronics, and biomedicine pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 300 rose - 17.03 points compared to the previous closing price. The banking sector significantly pulled the index up, while biomedicine, power equipment, and electronics pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 rose - 8.91 points compared to the previous closing price. The banking and national defense and military industries significantly pulled the index up, while coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages pulled it down [2]. Stock - Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 53.6, IM01 of - 131.34, IM02 of - 209.83, and IM03 of - 393.64 [13]. - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 38.29, IC01 of - 95.74, IC02 of - 151.11, and IC03 of - 276.72 [13]. - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 19.74, IF01 of - 37.22, IF02 of - 47.52, and IF03 of - 84.05 [13]. - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 17.1, IH01 of - 22.69, IH02 of - 23.55, and IH03 of - 24.24 [13]. Stock - Index Futures Contract Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM futures, detailed 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02) and their corresponding annualized costs are provided [23]. - For IC futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are presented [25]. - For IF futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are given [25]. - For IH futures, 15 - minute average data on point differences between different contract months and their corresponding annualized costs are shown [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, the policy helps promote enterprise technological innovation, industrial upgrading of new - quality productivity, and long - term profitability repair of enterprises, but relevant sectors may face pressure during the elimination of backward production capacity, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The overall view is that the market will be volatile [1] - For treasury bond futures, the bond market is in an environment of loose funds, stable economy, and low short - term interest rate cut expectations, with insufficient upward and downward momentum, and is expected to continue a volatile trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 1st, policies such as the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and the release of an article in Qiushi magazine were introduced. These policies are beneficial for long - term corporate profitability and A - share investment returns, but relevant sectors may face short - term pressure, and the basis discount of stock index futures may widen. The market is expected to be volatile [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 8th, treasury bond futures closed with some declines. The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan. The capital market is loose, and the economy is stable. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: From July 4th to July 7th, IH decreased by 9.2 points (- 0.34%), IF decreased by 18.0 points (- 0.46%), IC decreased by 15.0 points (- 0.26%), and IM decreased by 0.6 points (- 0.01%) [2] - **Stock Indexes**: From July 4th to July 7th, the Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 8.9 points (- 0.33%), the CSI 300 decreased by 17.0 points (- 0.43%), the CSI 500 decreased by 11.0 points (- 0.19%), and the CSI 1000 increased by 14.9 points (0.24%) [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: From July 4th to July 7th, TS decreased by 0.006 points (- 0.01%), TF decreased by 0.03 points (- 0.03%), T increased by 0.005 points (0.00%), and TL decreased by 0.05 points (- 0.04%) [2] 3.3 Market News - China's foreign exchange reserves in June were 3.317422 trillion US dollars, higher than the expected 3.3 trillion US dollars and the previous value of 3.28526 trillion US dollars [3] - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves were 73.9 million ounces (about 2298.55 tons), an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month, and it was the 8th consecutive month of gold purchases [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective monthly basis trends [6][7][9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][17] - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][24] 4. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and consulting qualification number Z0015271 [27] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures, and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and consulting qualification number Z0019537 [27]