1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，市场全天震荡调整，深成指、创业板指均跌超 1%。个股跌多涨少，今 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | | 震荡 | | | 日成交 1.79 万亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.55%，深成指跌 1.1%，创业板指跌 1.77%。 | | | | 近期政策的密集出台可能在短期内提振股指流动性、推升指数波动率。以 AI | | | | 为首的新质生产力仍是股指上涨的核心驱动，目前市场存在观望情绪。一方 | | | | 面，尽管相关科技题材业绩确定性较强，但产业链盈利模式尚未形成闭环， | | | | 叠加目前偏高的估值，资本市场态度谨慎；另一方面，以消费和周期题材为 | | | | 首的传统经济领域仍然处在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存在一些补涨的逻辑， | | | | 但短期很难进入基本面牛市。这种分歧可能会随着 2026 年美联储降息路径 | | | | 的确定而逐步减小，目前市场风险偏好仍较低，指数震荡为主。 | | | 国债 | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0. ...

Group 1: Index Movements - On December 15th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.55% to close at 3867.92 points, with a trading volume of 764.605 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.1% to close at 13112.09 points, with a trading volume of 1008.835 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.84%, with a trading volume of 372.659 billion yuan, opening at 7324.48, closing at 7309.08, reaching a high of 7375.61 and a low of 7305.83 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by 0.78%, with a trading volume of 301.024 billion yuan, opening at 7121.38, closing at 7113.96, reaching a high of 7177.15 and a low of 7110.68 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped by 0.25%, with a trading volume of 111.134 billion yuan, opening at 2979.76, closing at 2987.07, reaching a high of 3015.39 and a low of 2978.13 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 61.86 points from the previous close, with sectors such as Medicine & Biology, Communication, and Electronics significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 55.83 points from the previous close, with National Defense & Military Industry pulling the index up, while Electric Equipment, Machinery, and Electronics dragging it down [2]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased 7.57 points from the previous close, with Non - Banking Finance, Food & Beverage, and Basic Chemicals pulling the index up, while Machinery, Medicine & Biology, and Electronics dragging it down [2]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 8.87, IM01 of - 85.92, IM02 of - 246.25, and IM03 of - 490.68 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 2.63, IC01 of - 57.67, IC02 of - 174.09, and IC03 of - 377.5 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 5.33, IF01 of - 22.13, IF02 of - 48.54, and IF03 of - 92.24 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 2.95, IH01 of - 9.76, IH02 of - 10.95, and IH03 of - 26.66 [13]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For the IF contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, and IF00 - 03 were - 15.1878, - 37.2969, and - 81.8414 respectively [24]. - For the IH contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, and IH00 - 03 were - 5.45767, - 9.03133, and - 23.7498 respectively [25]. - For the IM contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, and IM00 - 03 were - 75.8461, - 236.345, and - 480.077 respectively [27]. - For the IC contract, at 09:45, the point differences for IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, and IC00 - 03 were - 55.5207, - 175.242, and - 383.666 respectively [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pricing logic of agricultural products has shifted, with policy and geopolitics taking precedence, followed by cost, and supply - demand coming third due to complex international trade environments and increased trade conflicts [8][114]. - In 2026, the overall supply of agricultural products is expected to increase, but the growth rate will slow down. There are potential opportunities in specific sectors and stages, while market volatility will intensify [114]. - For different agricultural products, such as oilseeds, grains, livestock, and eggs, their supply - demand structures, market trends, and influencing factors vary, and corresponding investment strategies and risk points need to be considered. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic soybean meal fluctuated, with a wider spot price range than the futures price. The price of oils declined from a high level, with palm oil leading the market, and the soybean - palm oil price spread widened and adjusted [7][11][19]. 3.1.2 2026 Market Analysis - The pricing of oilseeds is mainly influenced by policy and geopolitics. The global supply - demand of oilseeds is approaching balance in 2025/26, but there are opportunities for phased market movements due to uncertain factors such as weather and policies [8][114]. - Global oilseed production is expected to increase at a slower pace, with soybeans decreasing and rapeseed and sunflower seeds increasing. The consumption of oilseeds is expected to be strong, mainly driven by bio - diesel policies and feed demand [29][35]. - The production of palm oil may exceed expectations, driven by weather and technological factors. The biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are uncertain, which will affect the demand for oils [67][83]. - There are differences in the forecasts of global vegetable oil trade volume by different institutions. The inventory of vegetable oils is expected to decline slightly, and the market lacks a clear driving force [106][110]. 3.1.3 Price Outlook - If South American soybean production decreases by more than 10 million tons, the global soybean price center will move up. If South American production is stable and China actively purchases soybeans, the market will be relatively loose. If China purchases cautiously, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [114]. 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic and international corn futures prices first rose and then fell. The domestic market was mainly affected by policies, experiencing a roller - coaster ride from state - owned grain reserve purchases to imported corn auctions [120][123]. 3.2.2 2026 Market Analysis - Global corn production is expected to have a good harvest, with increased production in the US and China. The demand for feed and deep - processing is expected to decline slightly due to losses in the breeding industry [121][164]. - The inventory of corn is expected to increase, with an increase in trade - link inventory and expected imports of substitutes [121]. 3.2.3 Future Concerns - The relative changes between the expected high - yield and carry - over inventory will affect the corn price [186]. - The increase in Xinjiang's corn production will change the national corn trade pattern [191]. - The impact of bio - energy policies on US corn exports and the guidance of agricultural policies on the corn market [195][197]. 3.2.4 Price Outlook - In 2026, the international corn market supply is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face pressure from a large harvest and increased imports. The price is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [206]. 3.3 Pork 3.3.1 2025 Market Review - The supply of pork increased in 2025, leading to a decline in prices. The market was affected by factors such as secondary fattening and policy regulation [208][212]. 3.3.2 2026 Market Analysis - The number of sows in stock decreased in October 2025, which will lead to a reduction in pig slaughter in the second half of 2026, resulting in a supply contraction [209][220]. - Pig prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, and industry profits are expected to recover. Policy guidance and supply - demand adjustment will interact to affect pig prices [209]. 3.3.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, the pig market is expected to experience a price reversal. After the Spring Festival, pig prices may decline seasonally, but they will rebound after May as supply decreases and demand recovers [266]. 3.4 Eggs 3.4.1 2025 Market Review - The spot price of eggs was under pressure from the supply side and showed a weak performance throughout the year, with obvious seasonal patterns [267][271]. 3.4.2 2026 Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The willingness of farmers to replenish the flock has decreased, and the willingness to cull old hens has increased, which will help alleviate over - capacity [283][285]. - Feed raw material prices are expected to be weak, reducing the cost support for egg prices. The terminal demand for eggs maintains normal seasonal patterns without new bright spots [268]. 3.4.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, egg prices are expected to follow seasonal patterns. With the expected slow decline in production capacity, egg prices are expected to improve, but uncertainties in farmers' replenishment and culling decisions need to be monitored [308][310].

Report Title - The report is titled "2026 Strategy Report for New Energy Varieties" by Everbright Futures Research Institute, dated December 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the lithium resource market will show a pattern of strong supply and demand, with a price center likely to rise to 100,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, but price elasticity may increase [7][8] - The industrial silicon market will continue to see the global supply center shift to China, with domestic supply showing a pattern of decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and prices will be anchored to costs, with a reference range of 7,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [140][265] - The polysilicon market will enter the second stage of capacity clearance. Marginal supply and demand will turn into a tight - balance structure, and prices will show a range - bound characteristic, with a reference range of 46,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [142][270] Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium: Smooth Sailing and a Turnaround 2025 Market Review - The price of carbonate lithium in 2025 showed a trend of "first declining, then rising, with the bottom rising and fluctuating upwards". The price was affected by factors such as policy, supply, and demand at different stages [6][9] 2026 Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply: Global lithium resource supply is expected to increase by 29% year - on - year to 2.142 million tons of LCE in 2026 [7] - Demand: In 2025, lithium battery demand may increase by 35% year - on - year to 1,963 GWh, and is expected to increase by 23 - 32% year - on - year to 2,421 - 2,589 GWh in 2026 [7] - Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025, the surplus narrowed to 97,000 tons of LCE. In 2026, under different demand growth rate expectations, the lithium resource surplus will be in the range of [90,000, 218,000] tons of LCE [7] Price Outlook - In 2026, the price center may rise to 100,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, but price elasticity may increase. If the price remains above 105,000 yuan/ton, it may lead to supply - side responses and test the demand side [8] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: United Efforts and a Bright Future 2025 Market Review - Industrial silicon showed a pattern of alternating rises and falls in the resonance of macro and micro factors. Polysilicon showed a trend of first declining and then rising [140][145] 2026 Market Analysis Logic - Industrial Silicon - Supply: The global supply center will continue to shift to China, and domestic supply will show a pattern of decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The possibility of new production capacity plans for postponed projects is very low, and the industry will enter a structural adjustment cycle [140][161] - Demand: The photovoltaic terminal will shift from a high - speed development stage to a stable adjustment stage, and the growth rate of polysilicon capacity will turn negative. The overseas restocking cycle is coming to an end, and the domestic terminal is hard to see an increase. The growth rate of the organic silicon industry will gradually weaken, and the growth rate of the aluminum alloy industry will slow down [140][183] - Polysilicon - Supply: The industry will enter the second stage of capacity clearance. New capacity is almost impossible to achieve due to strict energy - consumption indicator control, and the progress of the platform acquisition plan is not optimistic [142][205] - Demand: As the focus of the 14th Five - Year Plan shifts from the power supply end to the energy storage end, the domestic new installation volume will tend to decrease. Component exports face policy tightening and cost pressure. The overseas market shows a new competitive pattern of regional differentiation and policy linkage [142][218] Price Outlook - Industrial Silicon: The price reference range is 7,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short at high prices following the production increase rhythm [265][267] - Polysilicon: The price reference range is 46,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to try long at low prices within the range following policies and industry dynamics [270][271]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2026, with new economic drivers emerging to offset the drag from the real estate sector [217][218]. - Globally, the policy in 2026 will revolve around the shift of policy focus, the return of fiscal expansion, and the maintenance of monetary easing, forming a new pattern of "policy re - balance" [94]. - In the bond market, the bullish expectation is loosening in 2026. With the reasonable and abundant capital, the stable economy, the moderate rise of inflation, and the cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound [176][270][271]. - In the stock index futures market, new quality productive forces will still be the core driver. The technology theme market may continue, and if the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the style switch between large - and small - cap stocks may occur [282]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Go with the Trend - **Economic Aggregate**: Considering the structural constraints in the next decade, China's potential economic growth rate may decline year by year. To connect with the 2035 vision, the GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5% in the first three years of the "15th Five - Year Plan" [7][8]. - **Economic Structure** - **Consumption**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate. China's household consumption rate has room for improvement, and the government will take measures such as income increase, burden reduction, and supply - side reform to boost consumption [13][24]. - **Industry**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes enhancing scientific and technological self - reliance. New policies will promote high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and the development of new quality productive forces [30]. - **Demand Growth**: The driving force of economic growth is shifting from investment to consumption. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the central government needs to increase fiscal leverage to solve the problems in real estate inventory reduction. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment need to maintain reasonable growth and improve efficiency [32][35]. - **Inflation**: With demand - side stimulus for consumption, supply - side "anti - involution" to improve efficiency, and the central bank's support for a reasonable rise in prices, inflation is expected to bottom out and rise in 2026 [7][89]. Big - Category Assets: Fiscal and Monetary Combinations Take Effect - **Global Macro Review**: In 2025, the global macro - economy fluctuated sharply under the influence of "Trump Policy 2.0". In 2026, the global policy will focus on the shift of policy focus, fiscal expansion, and monetary easing [95][103]. - **Overseas Outlook** - **United States**: In 2026, the policy focus will shift to domestic issues. The economy is expected to recover moderately, with potential interest - rate cuts. However, fiscal sustainability remains a concern [120][133]. - **Eurozone**: In 2026, the ECB's significant interest - rate cuts may end. The eurozone economy will rely on fiscal expansion and external investment, and the growth rate is expected to be around 1.2% [134][135]. - **Japan**: In 2026, Japan will implement a combination of fiscal expansion and moderate interest - rate hikes. If it can balance fiscal and monetary policies, the economy may achieve a stable growth [140][141]. - **2026 Big - Category Assets Outlook**: In 2026, with the decline of global economic policy uncertainty, the risk appetite of the market is likely to continue to recover. Risk assets such as stocks may rise, while the prices of safe - haven assets may adjust. The demand for commodities will be affected by the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus [161]. Treasury Bond Futures: Increasingly Negative Factors, Shaky Bullish Expectations - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the bond market showed a sideways and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as tight funds, tariff disturbances, the rise of risk appetite due to "anti - involution", and the decline of interest - rate cut expectations [176][183]. - **2026 Market Analysis Logic** - **Capital**: The central bank's liquidity management system will ensure that the capital in 2026 remains reasonably abundant [233][235]. - **Economy**: The macro - policy will continue to support stable growth, and the economy will remain stable [199][270]. - **Inflation**: With the promotion of consumption and "anti - involution" policies, CPI is expected to rise moderately, and the decline of PPI is expected to narrow [262][265]. - **Monetary Policy**: The moderately loose monetary policy will continue, but interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, with an expected cut range of 10 - 20BP in 2026 [242]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will remain active in 2026, with an expected narrow - sense budget deficit rate of around 4% and a broad - sense budget deficit rate of 8.3% [258][259]. - **Market Outlook**: In 2026, the bond market is likely to remain range - bound. The reasonable and abundant capital is a support, while the stable economy, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts pose constraints [271][273]. Stock Index Futures: New Quality Productive Forces Remain the Core Driver - **2025 Market Review**: In 2025, the A - share market rose significantly, mainly driven by the technology theme. The overseas and domestic markets both contributed to the rise, but the cycle and consumption sectors were still under pressure [282][283][294]. - **2026 Market Outlook** - **Global Technology Market**: There are debates about whether the current technology market has a bubble. However, the upstream manufacturing enterprises have stable performance expectations, the Fed is likely to continue to cut interest rates in the first quarter, and the Chinese technology industry also has fundamental support [337][346][350]. - **Style Switch**: The style switch from growth to value is not likely to occur in the first half of 2026. If the PPI turns positive in the second half of 2026, the ROE of the stock index may stabilize and rise, and the style switch may happen [358][367][368]. - **Futures and Options Market Features** - **Basis**: The basis of small - cap index futures is at a high level, and the roll - over cost has also increased. The basis of large - cap index futures is mainly affected by dividends [372]. - **Volatility**: The historical and implied volatilities of the index were high in 2025. At the beginning of 2026, strategies for increasing volatility should be considered [383]. - **Market Strategies**: In 2026, the excess returns of index - enhancement and neutral strategies are relatively optimistic, but attention should be paid to the potential beta retracement [389].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the supply - demand situation of steel products is expected to improve, and the center of steel prices may move up. The production of crude steel will continue to decline slightly, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing will pick up, and exports will remain at a high level. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal is expected to be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [6][7][11][12]. - The supply - demand balance of iron ore will remain loose in 2026. Overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, and domestic iron ore supply will also increase. However, the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress. Domestic pig iron production is expected to decline, and overseas demand will increase slightly. The operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [121][122][123]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke will remain relatively loose in 2026. For coking coal, domestic production and imports are expected to increase, while demand may decrease. The operating range of coking coal futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton. For coke, production is expected to decrease, exports may fall, and imports may rise. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [228][229]. - In 2026, the oversupply situation of ferroalloys is difficult to change. For ferromanganese silicon, new production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly, and demand will remain stable. For ferrosilicon, production capacity will remain in excess, costs will provide support, and upward drivers will be limited [322]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel Products 2025 Market Review - The domestic steel market in 2025 showed a trend of "lower price center and significantly narrowed volatility". Steel prices mainly fluctuated and declined throughout the year, except for a significant rebound from June to July. The overall demand was weak, with real estate being the main drag, while plate demand was stronger than long - product demand. Overseas demand was strong, and steel and billet exports reached new highs [14][23][38][40]. - Long - process steel mills had relatively good profits in 2025, mainly due to the sharp decline in coking coal and coke prices and the adjustment of product structure by steel mills. Short - process steel mills continued to suffer losses [55][56]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Demand**: In 2026, policy guidance for steel demand will be positive. Real estate investment and sales are expected to decline at a slower pace, infrastructure investment is expected to increase slightly, and manufacturing investment is expected to recover moderately [7][62][72]. - **Supply**: The policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2026, and it is expected that crude steel production will decline slightly, and the supply of steel products will better match demand [6][94][96]. - **Import and Export**: In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain at a high level but will decline from the peak. The net export of crude steel may decrease compared to 2024 [10][101][118]. - **Cost**: In 2026, the supply of iron ore and coking coal will be relatively loose, and the profits of the steel industry may be repaired [11][110][114]. 3.2 Iron Ore 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the supply - demand of iron ore was marginally loose, and the price fluctuations throughout the year were significantly narrowed. There were two obvious price increases, and the basis was at a low level in the past five years. The prices of different iron ore varieties showed different trends [124][129][132]. - The supply increment mainly came from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, and the production of domestic mines increased less than expected. Overseas demand decreased slightly, while domestic iron ore demand was better than expected [142][158][179]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Supply**: In 2026, overseas mines (excluding India) are expected to increase production by 62 million tons, with the main increments coming from Australia, Guinea, and Brazil. The supply of domestic iron ore is also expected to increase, but the release of incremental supply from small and medium - sized mines depends on ore prices and project progress [121][161][177]. - **Demand**: Overseas demand is expected to increase slightly, while domestic pig iron production is expected to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of iron ore will remain loose, and the operating range of ore prices is expected to be around $85 - 110 per ton [122][123][203]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory first decreased and then increased, and steel mills maintained low - inventory management [209][215]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly. The price of coking coal was mainly driven by the supply side, with a sharp decline from January to May, a sharp increase from June to August, wide - range fluctuations from August to October, and another significant decline in November [231][232][235]. - The production of coking coal showed a pattern of "loose in the first half of the year and tight in the second half". The production of coke was adjusted periodically according to coking profits [246][277]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to reach 483 million tons, and imports are expected to increase to 120 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by 8 million tons to about 585 million tons. The overall supply - demand of coking coal will face certain pressure, and the operating range of futures prices is expected to be between 900 - 1400 yuan per ton [228][314][317]. - **Coke**: In 2026, coke production is expected to decrease to 495 million tons, exports may fall to 7.2 million tons, and imports may rise to 0.8 million tons. Demand is expected to decrease by about 2.8 million tons. The operating range of coke futures prices is expected to be between 1300 - 1900 yuan per ton [229][314][318]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the futures prices of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon showed similar trends, with the amplitude of ferromanganese silicon being slightly larger. The prices were mainly affected by factors such as manganese ore inventory, terminal demand, and the "anti - involution" policy [326][327]. 2026 Market Outlook - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon will remain relatively loose, and prices will mainly fluctuate. New production capacity is to be put into operation, but production may decline slightly. Demand is expected to remain basically the same [322][397]. - **Ferrosilicon**: In 2026, the over - capacity situation of ferrosilicon will continue, with cost support and limited upward drivers. Production capacity will remain in excess, and demand will change little year - on - year [322][399].

Group 1: Report Overview - **Report Title**: 2026 Annual Resource Product Strategy Report [1] - **Report Institute**: Everbright Futures Research Institute [2] - **Report Date**: December 2025 [2] Group 2: Sugar Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE raw sugar futures price declined by 21.62% throughout the year due to the global sugar production entering a bumper - harvest cycle. The price fluctuated between 14 - 20 cents/lb [7][11]. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price first rose and then fell, with an annual decline of 9.41%. The price of the main contract fluctuated between 5330 - 6200 yuan/ton [7][14]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: Globally, the 2025/26 sugar - making season has abundant supply. In Brazil, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a slight decrease in cane crushing volume but a 2.09% increase in sugar production due to a high sugar - making ratio. The estimated sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be flat or slightly higher. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 3435 million tons of sugar, with a net output of 3095 million tons after deducting ethanol production. In Thailand, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to produce 1140 million tons of sugar, and exports are expected to return to 600 million tons. Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to recover, with an estimated output of 1170 million tons [8][19][50][70][90]. - **Demand**: Globally, sugar consumption is mediocre. Domestically, sugar consumption lacks highlights and has a weakening effect on price support [8][110]. - **Price**: Internationally, the raw sugar price is expected to operate at a medium - low level, with the main operating range between 13.5 - 19.5 cents/lb. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with the main operating range of futures prices between 5100 - 5700 yuan/ton [8][111][113]. Group 3: Cotton Market 2025 Market Review - **International Market**: The ICE cotton futures price was affected by tariffs throughout the year, with the main contract price operating between 60.8 - 69.75 cents/lb. - **Domestic Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was also affected by tariffs, with the main contract price operating between 12315 - 14375 yuan/ton [116]. 2026 Market Analysis - **International Market**: Macroeconomic disturbances continue, with supply slightly exceeding demand. Key factors to focus on include the interest - rate cut rhythm, geopolitical conflicts, US cotton exports, and new - year planting intentions. The estimated operating range of ICE cotton is 60 - 75 cents/lb [117][212]. - **Domestic Market**: The inflation data is gradually rising month - on - month. The 2026/27 cotton production may decline, providing support for cotton prices. The estimated operating range of domestic cotton futures prices is 13500 - 15500 yuan/ton [117][214]. Group 4: Urea Market 2025 Market Review - **Supply**: The industry's new production capacity in 2025 was 591 million tons, with the production capacity base exceeding 80 million tons. The annual output was about 7171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88%. - **Demand**: The annual consumption was about 6220 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. - **Price**: The futures and spot prices were at five - year lows, and the annual export volume was expected to be close to 500 million tons [218]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Supply**: The industry's production capacity growth rate in 2026 will reach 10.82%, and the annual output may be close to 7600 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.82%. - **Demand**: Agricultural consumption is still the core area, with a growth rate of about 5% in 2026, driving the annual consumption to about 6834 million tons. - **Price**: The central operating range of urea futures prices in 2026 will continue to move down slightly, with the main operating range around 1650 ± 200 yuan/ton [219][295]. Group 5: Soda Ash and Glass Market 2025 Market Review - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity increased by 15.37%, the output growth rate slowed to 1.69%, the demand decreased by 2.88% to about 3422 million tons, and the export volume was expected to exceed 210 million tons. The main - contract futures price continuously reached new lows since listing. - **Glass**: The annual output was 5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 7%. The annual consumption was about 5600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.16%. The futures price once reached a ten - year low [297]. 2026 Market Analysis - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity growth rate will slow down to 0.58%, the output will increase by 5.6% to 4100 million tons, the demand will decrease by 0.19% to about 3415 million tons, and the export volume is expected to reach 230 - 250 million tons. The central operating range of futures prices will move down to 1000 ± 200 yuan/ton. - **Glass**: The output will decrease by 2% to 5620 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 3% to about 5430 million tons, and the central operating range of futures prices is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [298].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing logic of gold has undergone a profound transformation, with the traditional "real interest rate" and "US dollar" pricing anchors losing effectiveness after 2022. A diversified pricing system centered on "fiat currency credit hedging" and assisted by "global geopolitical order reconstruction" has emerged. In 2026, gold is expected to verify and extend the stability of this system, with an annual operating range of $3,900 - $4,800 per ounce and an average annual price of around $4,500 per ounce [2][113]. - Silver is likely to follow the trend of gold, with a greater price elasticity. In 2026, the shortage in the silver fundamentals and inventory liquidity risks are expected to become consensus and supporting factors, with the expected regression of the gold - silver ratio as the main driving force. The London spot silver is projected to fluctuate between $50 - $80 per ounce [2][116]. - In the context of the systematic re - evaluation of gold as a core credit - hedging asset, 2026 will be a year of both opportunities and further differentiation for platinum and palladium. Their prices will not only follow the upward trend of gold's financial attributes but also continue the divergent trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium" due to their different fundamentals. The London spot platinum is expected to find strong support in the $1,450 - $1,550 per ounce area and challenge the key resistance range of $1,800 - $2,000 per ounce, with an average annual price of around $1,750 per ounce. The London spot palladium is expected to oscillate in a wider range, with support at $1,050 - $1,250 per ounce and resistance at $1,600 - $1,800 per ounce, and an average annual price of around $1,300 per ounce [5][117]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. 2025 Year - end Review and Influencing Factors of Precious Metals - **Gold**: In 2025, the gold market was influenced by multiple factors such as global macro - economic conditions, geopolitical changes, and market sentiment. The London spot gold fluctuated between $2,613.9 - $4,381.17 per ounce, with an average price of about $3,400.79 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. The price increase was driven by factors including Trump's policies, Fed policy changes, and concerns about the US dollar's credit [7][8]. - **Silver**: The London spot silver achieved a historical breakthrough, fluctuating between $28.311 - $58.968 per ounce, with an average price of $38.192 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 33.2%. The price increase was promoted by the strong rise of gold and the expected regression of the gold - silver ratio [8]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: In 2025, the platinum and palladium markets were a game between supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes. The London spot platinum fluctuated between $878.3 - $1,770 per ounce, with an average price of about $1,253.3 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 30%. The London spot palladium fluctuated between $870.5 - $1,695 per ounce, with an average price of $1,165.7 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of about 18.5%. On November 27, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange officially launched platinum and palladium futures [5][10]. 2. 2025 Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis - **Gold Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025, the supply of gold increased slightly, with a 1.2% increase in output to 3,717.4 tons in the first three quarters compared to the same period last year. The net demand for gold increased by 10% to 3,639.7 tons in the first three quarters. The gold surplus decreased to 77.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 78.7%. Investment demand returned, with an increase in the demand for gold bars, medals, and an increase in the holdings of gold ETFs. However, central bank gold purchases decreased by 12.5% to 633.6 tons [28][41][43]. - **Silver Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025, the global silver supply increased slightly, reaching 32,055 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.5%. The total demand was 35,716 tons, a slight decrease of 1.4% compared to 2024. Industrial demand remained stable, investment demand recovered, and traditional photography, jewelry, and silverware demand declined. The silver market was in a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [46][47][49]. - **Platinum and Palladium Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply of platinum and palladium was unstable in 2025. Global platinum mine production was expected to decline by 6%, and palladium mine production was also expected to decline by 6%. However, recycling improved. Platinum demand was diversified, while palladium demand was highly concentrated in the automotive sector. Platinum demand was supported by the "platinum replacing palladium" trend and the growth of hybrid vehicles, while palladium demand faced a structural decline due to the increase in electric vehicle penetration and platinum substitution [58][59][62]. 3. Macro - analysis: Multiple Narratives of Gold in the Intersection of the US Mid - term Election Year and Geopolitical Fission - **US Mid - term Election Year**: In 2026, the US government may adopt expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to boost election support. Fiscal deficits are expected to widen, and the Fed may cut interest rates. However, these policies may also lead to concerns about "stagflation" or "re - inflation" and increase short - term volatility in gold prices through trade and tariff policies [74][75][76]. - **Geopolitics**: The geopolitical situation in 2026 will be more complex, with a shift from traditional military confrontation to a "composite game" in the economic, trade, and technology fields. Although the peace process in the Middle East and Ukraine may bring short - term stability, potential risks still exist. Gold will have a structural premium due to geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks and large institutional investors will continue to increase their gold holdings [91][92]. - **Financial Market Narrative**: In 2026, the narratives of "soft landing", "re - inflation", or "stagflation" of the US economy will compete, leading to further differentiation in asset prices. Gold has become an asset for hedging against the volatility of US stocks, and the impact of the US dollar on gold prices needs to be considered in terms of its short - term and long - term trends [105][110][112]. 4. Conclusion - **Gold**: In 2026, gold is expected to oscillate upward and set new historical highs, with an annual operating range of $3,900 - $4,800 per ounce and an average annual price of around $4,500 per ounce. The price may experience different stages: high - level oscillation in the first half of the year, a main upward wave in the second half, and a potential technical correction in the fourth quarter [113][115][116]. - **Silver**: Silver is expected to follow the trend of gold with greater elasticity. The London spot silver is projected to fluctuate between $50 - $80 per ounce in 2026 [116]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is expected to show stronger price elasticity and upward potential, while palladium is likely to oscillate in a wider range with a downward - shifting center of gravity [117].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The report does not provide an explicit investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: In 2026, LME copper prices are expected to show a trend of "trend - driven increase led by supply - demand gap + phased fluctuations driven by funds". The price center is likely to rise, with an expected annual average of around $11,500/ton, a high of over $13,500/ton, and a low of around $10,000/ton. Domestic copper prices are predicted to be relatively stable, ranging from 82,000 yuan/ton to 108,000 yuan/ton [7][158]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation in 2026, with a price range of 2,000 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to rise, with a price range of 20,000 - 28,000 yuan/ton [165][167]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: In 2026, the supply - demand surplus of nickel is expected to increase, with a price range of 100,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel prices are expected to be in the range of 11,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton [288]. 3. Summary of Each Section Copper - **2025 Price Review**: LME copper prices fluctuated with an upward - moving center, ranging from $8,105.5/ton to $11,334/ton, with an annual average settlement price of about $9,834/ton, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. SHFE copper prices ranged from 71,320 yuan/ton to 89,920 yuan/ton, with an annual average settlement price of 80,485 yuan/ton, a 5.5% increase [7][10]. - **2026 Market Analysis**: - **Macro - environment**: The global macro - environment will feature "loose monetary policy + stable growth", providing a foundation for high - level copper prices. The first half of 2026 offers more opportunities, while risks may emerge in the second half [153]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances will persist in 2026, especially in the first half. Demand is expected to grow in multiple areas. The distorted global visible inventory structure may further magnify the impact of the supply - demand gap [155][156]. - **Funds**: Loose liquidity, a tight supply - demand balance, and inventory structure issues will prompt overseas speculative funds and the industrial sector to drive copper prices upward. However, excessive price fluctuations may lead to regulatory measures [158]. Aluminum - **Alumina** - **2025 Review**: Alumina prices fluctuated due to domestic supply disturbances and overseas policy sentiments, with an initial sharp decline, followed by rebounds and subsequent declines [172]. - **2026 Outlook**: The supply side will face long - term domestic ore restrictions, increasing dependence on imported ores, and uncertain shipping schedules. The demand side will be supported by the high - base and capped electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the export window is expected to remain open. The cost side will limit the downward price movement. Overall, alumina will remain in an oversupply situation, with a price range of 2,000 - 2,900 yuan/ton [164][165]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **2025 Review**: Electrolytic aluminum prices remained high and stable in the long - term, with short - term fluctuations driven by Sino - US tariff policies [175]. - **2026 Outlook**: The supply side will see a shift towards a pattern of decreasing domestic production and increasing overseas production. The demand side will experience a demand structure adjustment, with the focus shifting to policy - driven sectors. The cost side will see a long - term low electricity price center, and the cost structure may be reshaped. The overall price is expected to rise, with a range of 20,000 - 28,000 yuan/ton [166][167]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - **2025 Price Review**: Nickel prices fluctuated widely in Q1, weakened in Q2, oscillated horizontally in Q3, and rebounded in Q4. Stainless steel prices mostly followed nickel prices [286][290]. - **2026 Supply - Demand Pattern** - **Global Primary Nickel Supply**: In 2025, global primary nickel supply increased by 8% to 3.81 million nickel tons. In 2026, it is expected to increase by 7% to 4.085 million nickel tons, with an increasing supply - demand surplus [287][410]. - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia adjusted its nickel ore policies, and the actual release of nickel ore quotas in 2025 was less than expected. In 2026, quotas are expected to narrow [287][309]. - **Class I Nickel**: The domestic Class I nickel market faced a situation of slow - expanding supply and weak demand, with an increasing surplus. Globally, the supply increased while the demand remained stable, also leading to an increasing surplus [287][336]. - **Class II Nickel**: The market share of domestic and overseas enterprises in the Class II nickel market has been squeezed by Indonesia. Most planned projects have been suspended or postponed. The stainless - steel demand lacks bright spots [287]. - **Nickel Salt**: Cobalt prices and new capacity drove the accelerated production of MHP, while the production of high - grade nickel matte slowed down. The profit of nickel sulfate is expected to be suppressed by rising raw material prices and weakening demand [287]. - **Valuation and Price Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 100,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and stainless - steel prices are expected to be in the range of 11,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton [288].