1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron Ore: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: On August 27, 2025, the rebar futures market had a narrow - range adjustment. The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 73,400 lots in positions. Spot prices slightly declined, and trading volume remained low. This week, the national building materials production increased by 53,900 tons to 4.0883 million tons, social inventory increased by 160,300 tons to 6.1761 million tons, factory inventory increased by 83,100 tons to 3.1516 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.8449 million tons. Since August, the supply - demand situation in the rebar spot market has continuously deteriorated, with increased supply, low demand, and reverse - seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the futures market. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron Ore**: On August 27, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract i2601 decreased to 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase of 2,000 lots in positions. In terms of supply, Australia's iron ore shipments increased significantly, Brazil's shipments declined from the high level, and the shipments from other countries decreased, resulting in a slight decline in global iron ore shipments. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2407,500 tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased, while the steel mills' inventory decreased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that iron ore prices will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 27, 2025, the coking coal futures market declined. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.56%, with an increase of 7067 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of gas - bearing raw coal in Xinzhou, Shanxi, decreased by 31 yuan to 506 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port dropping by 7 yuan to 978 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal remaining unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been frequent coal mine accidents, and many coal mines in major production areas such as Shanxi have stopped production. The downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the procurement of raw materials is cautious. The eighth round of coke price increase has not received a response from steel mills. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: On August 27, 2025, the coke futures market declined. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton or 0.68%, with an increase of 442 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of port coke remained stable. After seven rounds of price increases, the profits of coke enterprises have improved significantly. However, due to environmental protection and other factors, some coke enterprises have had phased production restrictions, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The coke enterprises' inventory pressure is small. In terms of demand, traffic control in some areas has affected the arrival of coke at steel mills, and with the approaching military parade, more steel mills have production restrictions. The steel market outlook is weak, and steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, and the positions in the main contract increased by 6261 lots to 306,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has changed rapidly. On the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped in the late trading session, and the black - goods sector was weak, with coking coal leading the decline. Although the futures price has decreased, the spot market has strong price - holding sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, the production cost of manganese silicon is still relatively stable, and the price of port manganese ore remains unchanged. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of manganese silicon has been increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. There is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals, and it is not sufficient to support a continuous upward movement of the manganese silicon futures price. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon futures price will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5634 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease, and the positions in the main contract decreased by 1503 lots to 218,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index in the late trading session affected the black - goods sector, and the ferrosilicon futures price dropped. In terms of fundamentals, the weekly production of ferrosilicon has been increasing, and the year - on - year increase exceeds 10%. The demand for steel has been suppressed, and the demand from sample steel mills for ferrosilicon has remained basically unchanged. The inventory pressure is acceptable, as the inventory of 60 sample enterprises, although still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, has decreased for two consecutive weeks. Overall, there are no major contradictions in the ferrosilicon fundamentals in the near term, and more attention should be paid to market sentiment. It is expected that ferrosilicon will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black - goods products, along with their changes compared to the previous period. For example, the 10 - 1 spread for rebar is - 61.0, with a 11.0 increase; the basis for the 10 - contract is 179.0, with an 8.0 decrease; and the spot price in Shanghai is 3290.0, with a 10.0 decrease [3]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits and spreads of different products is also presented. For instance, the rebar futures profit is - 46.3, with a 5.4 increase; the long - process profit is 34.6, with a 6.4 decrease; the short - process profit is 15.6, with a 10.0 decrease; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 238.0, with a 16.0 decrease; and the coke - to - iron - ore ratio is 2.2, with a 0.01 decrease [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025, which helps in observing the long - term price trends of these products [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis for various products are provided, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, which can assist in analyzing the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19][20][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for each product, which is useful for understanding the price differences between different contract periods [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - product Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different products, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, rebar - to - coke ratio, coke - to - iron - ore ratio, coking coal - to - coke ratio, and ferrosilicon - manganese silicon spread, are shown, helping to analyze the relative price relationships between different black - goods products [42][43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit are provided, which can be used to assess the profitability of rebar production [46][48][52]. 3.3 Black Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - goods research team, including their positions, work experience, professional qualifications, and achievements. For example, Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black - goods research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 三、图表分析 点评 27 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8525 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.56%， 持仓减仓 6281 手至 27.6 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9442 元/吨，较 上一交易日下调 36 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8750 元/吨， 现货升水扩至 245 元/吨。多晶硅震荡走弱，主力 2511 收于 48690 元/ 吨，日内跌幅 4.89%，持仓增仓 17059 手至 15.5 万手；多晶硅 N 型复 投硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨， 现货贴水收至 95 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤价格提升，硅厂向贸易商出 货量高而下游购货量偏少，上下空间收窄、延续调整节奏。反内卷完 成对多晶硅价格的基本把控，西南放产下社库和仓单持续增压，产业 出清并未实际推进，多晶硅量价分离格局持续扩大。多晶硅现货跟随 下游市场情绪降温、开始向下调价。短期反内卷相关动态对短期盘面 存在仍存驱动，或引导预期修正下回调幅度。建议谨慎高位布空，工 信部 9 月底前启动节能专项监察 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 796.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was -43.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was 21.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 22.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (Carajás fines: 61 yuan today, up 1 yuan from the previous day), the basis values and their changes are presented. Some varieties like Mac fines had a stable basis, while others like FMG blended fines had a basis increase of 2 yuan [6]. 2.2 Basis Charts - There are charts for different basis benchmarks including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores, etc. [8][9] 3. Policy - related Adjustments of Dalian Commodity Exchange 3.1 Adjustment of Deliverable Varieties - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate powder, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate powder) were added, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11]. - Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate powder, Magang concentrate powder, Minmetals standard powder, SP10 powder) were added as deliverable brands, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, applicable to the I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. 3.2 Adjustment of Brand Premiums and Discounts - Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums and discounts of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums and Discounts - The allowable range of iron grade index was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium and discount regulations for different index intervals were detailed, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium and discount value of the iron element index (X) was introduced [11]. 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Data - The spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines (145.0 yuan/ton, unchanged), PB fines - blended fines (62.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan), etc. are presented [13]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing different types of variety spreads, including lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [15][16][18] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Guangda Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the industry [23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The corn market is in a state of shock. The spot price is weak, the supply is diverse, the downstream procurement intention is weak, and the new - grain listing pressure affects the futures price. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the 11 - month contract at the 2150 integer mark [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is volatile. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is under selling pressure. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market is in a state of shock. Weak demand currently restricts the upward movement, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is in a state of shock. The futures price continues to decline, while the spot price rebounds. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of shock. The futures price is weakly volatile, and the spot price varies in different regions. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the main 2511 contract of corn increased in positions and rose slightly. The spot price is weak, with prices in Northeast China moving closer to new - grain prices and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn in Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the enterprise prices have been slightly adjusted downwards. The supply in the market is diverse, and the downstream procurement intention is weak. The futures price is affected by the new - grain listing pressure, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Attention should be paid to the 2150 integer mark of the 11 - month contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. The domestic soybean meal increased in positions and declined, with large selling pressure. The state - reserve will sell 16.4 tons of soybeans on the 29th, and the expectation of Sino - US talks has alleviated the market's concerns about long - term supply, putting pressure on the Dalian soybean meal. The futures decline exceeds the spot decline, and the basis strengthens. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose last week, but weak demand limited the increase. The import of palm oil in the EU is lower than the same period last year, reflecting weak demand. The Canadian rapeseed price has declined, and the market is waiting for the crop report. Domestic vegetable oils have declined, affected by the general decline of commodities and the weakness of the surrounding market. The demand is currently weak, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The market is in a long - term upward trend. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to decline. The main 2510 contract closed down 1.26%, and the near - month 2509 contract fluctuated at a low level, closing down 0.69%. The spot price has rebounded. Terminal markets purchase as they sell, and the procurement before the start of school is relatively active. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but considering the supply - side pressure, the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - **Hogs**: On Wednesday, the hog futures were weakly volatile. The main 2511 contract closed down 0.83%. The spot price varies in different regions. In the north, the terminal demand has slightly increased, and the pig price has risen slightly in some areas; in the south, large - scale farms have increased their sales, and the pig price has generally declined. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has sent 8 working groups to 18 provinces for centralized research and guidance on autumn grain production and disaster prevention and mitigation, covering four aspects: field management, disaster prevention and mitigation, yield improvement, and "one - spray multi - promotion" [3]. - According to SGS data, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 is 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase compared to the same period last month [3]. - Analysts expect Australia's wheat production to reach 32 - 35 million tons, and the estimate may be further raised. This will increase the global wheat supply [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean meal, oils and fats, eggs, and hogs, but no specific spread or basis data analysis is provided [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][24]. Introduction of the Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her contact information is provided [26]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日尿素期货价格午时快速拉升，随后震荡回落。主力01合约收盘价1737元/吨，微 幅下跌0.29%。现货市场多数稳定，昨日山东、河南地区市场价格继续分别稳定在为 | | | | 1700元/吨、1710元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平有所回落，昨日行业日产量18. | | | | 89万吨，日环比降0.17万吨。盘中尿素期价突然拉升源于对山西技改供应下降 预 | | | | 期的担忧，但目前来看 地供应降幅尚在可控范围，具体情况仍需后市跟 。需求 | | | 尿素 | 端跟进情绪局部好转，多地产销率攀升至90% 100%甚至以上，个别地区产销率达 | 坚挺震 荡 | | | 到200%，但区域间表现仍有明显分化。本周尿素企业库存提升6.05%，仍不利于企 | | | | 业挺价。再加上阅兵时间愈加临近，北方尿素企业、下游板厂、胶厂等生产及运输 | | | | 情况仍需持续关注。整体来看，尿素基本面尚未出现扭转，但后续局部地区供应下 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 27, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.23% to 78,860 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 81,600 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 100 yuan/ton to 79,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 50 yuan/ton to 77,030 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 787 tons to 27,477 tons [3]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, production slowed down slightly, mainly due to the suspension of mica production. In the future, with the previous price increase and the increase in overseas imports, lithium extraction from spodumene is expected to continue to increase. There is currently high - priced ore, which still supports the price of lithium carbonate. On the demand side, the total demand in August increased by 6% month - on - month. September is the traditional peak season, downstream production schedules may remain booming, and downstream inventory replenishment intentions are strong. The social inventory remains at 141,000 tons and has shown a slight destocking trend in the past two weeks, with an increase in downstream procurement [3]. - On August 27, affected by news in the lithium ore market, the lithium price was strong at first and then weak. The production problems of known resource projects have basically been resolved. After the rapid price increase last week, there is short - term callback pressure, waiting for new factors to drive the price. In the short term, pay attention to the lithium ore transaction price, and in the medium term, focus on the progress of other projects that need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 78,860 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 79,040 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 920 US dollars/ton. The prices of some lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone varieties increased slightly [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. Some prices of ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, while the prices of most cathode materials and batteries remained stable [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [24][26]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from January to August 2025 [37][39]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [41]. 3.3 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who are responsible for different aspects of non - ferrous and new energy research and have rich experience and achievements [45][46]. 3.4 Contact Information - The company is located at Building 6, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Contact information includes phone, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code [49].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [1] - Sugar: Neutral with a slightly bearish bias [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.09% to 66.65 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.32% to 14,075 yuan per ton. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the U.S. weather and drought area changes should be monitored. In the domestic market, sentiment fluctuated, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price moved lower. After the issuance of 200,000 tons of processing trade import quotas, inventory concerns eased. New cotton supply-demand contradictions are not significant, but there will be pressure from high yields and support from "scrambling to buy" expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and macro and weather changes should be watched [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's Conab lowered the 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the futures price continued to decline with reduced positions. The double - festival stocking provides limited support, and future import pressure will trouble the market. A slightly bearish and fluctuating view is maintained, and the support at the previous low will be tested. Attention should be paid to the August import data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45, unchanged; the main contract basis was 1,267, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan, and the national price was 15,342 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 32, down 3; the main contract basis was 365, up 2. The Nanning spot price was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 5,985 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 27, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 6,859, down 118, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On August 27, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 14,906, down 409, with 1 valid forecast [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9][11]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, with data from 2021 - 2025 [14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, and domestic copper opened lower and fluctuated narrowly with the domestic spot import window continuously open. Concerns about the Fed's independence may increase expectations of monetary policy easing. Seasonal off - peak is ending, downstream orders may improve, and scrap copper substitution is favorable. There is a possibility of inventory replenishment in China, which may drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's resumption of production increases, with accumulating warehouse receipts and over - supply expectations. Cost support is strengthening, so it is in a weak but limited - decline pattern. The inflow of aluminum ingots in main sales areas in China is decreasing, and downstream stocking is increasing. Whether it is a cyclical inflection point needs verification [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Overall, the fundamentals have little change, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 75 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME and COMEX copper changed. The total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the inventory of LME decreased by 4075 tons, while the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 74 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 tons. The active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 72 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt decreased by 61 tons. The social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory decreased by 5500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74 tons. The active contract import loss changed [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.8%. The LME inventory increased by 145 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 301 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and his team has won many awards [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and providing timely market information [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the daily data tracking of stock index futures on August 27, 2025, including the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points differences and annualized costs during contract roll - over periods [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On August 27, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.76% to close at 3800.35 points, with a trading volume of 1326.849 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to close at 12295.07 points, with a trading volume of 1838.716 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.87% with a trading volume of 672.784 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 1.46% with a trading volume of 583.864 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.73% with a trading volume of 197.654 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index fell 1.49% with a trading volume of 785.098 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 139.97 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotechnology significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 101.51 points, affected by sectors like non - banking finance and pharmaceuticals and biotechnology [2]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 66.46 points, pulled down by sectors including food and beverage, banking, and non - banking finance [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 51.4 points, influenced by sectors such as food and beverage, banking, and non - banking finance [2]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 52.19, IM01 of - 105.28, IM02 of - 216.38, and IM03 of - 377.67 [11]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 31.68, IC01 of - 69.6, IC02 of - 158.42, and IC03 of - 286.97 [11]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 1.52, IF01 of - 7.84, IF02 of - 21.04, and IF03 of - 42.88 [11]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.72, IH01 of 2.28, IH02 of 5.0, and IH03 of 8.1 [11]. Points Differences and Annualized Costs during Contract Roll - over Periods - Data on the annualized costs and 15 - minute average points differences during the roll - over periods of IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are provided, including specific values at different time points [21][23][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is currently affected by the uncertainty of supply - side expectations, and oil prices are expected to oscillate. The fuel oil market is also in an oscillating state due to factors such as supply and demand and sanctions. The asphalt market has increased production expectations in September, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand. The polyester market has improved demand expectations, and the supply has shrunk due to some device overhauls, with prices following cost fluctuations. The rubber market has support from demand, and the price will oscillate in the short - term. The methanol market will maintain an oscillating trend considering supply and demand changes. The polyolefin market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations. The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI October contract rose $0.9 to $64.15/barrel (1.42% increase), Brent October contract rose $0.83 to $68.05/barrel (1.23% increase), and SC2510 closed at 481.5 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan/barrel (1.01% decrease). Last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased due to increased demand. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil export pipelines and US tariffs on Indian imports affected Russian crude exports, with weekly shipments decreasing to 272 barrels/day in the week ending August 24. The market is affected by supply - side uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 fell 2.39% to 2821 yuan/ton, and LU2511 fell 1.47% to 3485 yuan/ton. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and previous low valuations, FU had a strong rise this week but回调ed with the oil price yesterday. The Chinese refinery's average utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 63.61% as of August 27, up 1.04 percentage points from last week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is expected to continue. FU is affected by sentiment and is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 fell 0.57% to 3505 yuan/ton. The domestic refinery's asphalt production plan in September is about 2.64 million tons, a 10% increase from August and a 33% increase from the same period last year. This week, the domestic refinery's asphalt inventory level was 27.15%, down 0.66% week - on - week, and the social inventory rate was 33.94%, up 0.04% week - on - week. The asphalt plant's device utilization rate was 36.67%, down 0.25% week - on - week. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand [2][4] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4824 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; EG2601 closed at 4481 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The polyester yarn sales in the Yangtze River Delta region are still weak, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi is restarting, and a cracking device in Singapore has an unexpected delay in restart. The demand improvement brings positive support, and the supply has shrunk due to device overhauls. The prices of PX and TA follow cost fluctuations, and the ethylene glycol price is favorable due to reduced imports and lower inventory [4][5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 fell 125 yuan/ton to 15760 yuan/ton, NR fell 175 yuan/ton to 12615 yuan/ton, and BR fell 135 yuan/ton to 11710 yuan/ton. From January to July, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The supply - side prices of cup rubber and latex are relatively firm, and the demand - side tire exports have increased, supporting the short - term price to oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a phased low. Overseas, Iranian device loads are high, and short - term arrivals will remain high. However, with the increase in the price difference between Europe, India, and China, the arrival volume will decrease in the long - term. The MTO device load in East China is not high, and the port inventory will increase in the short - term. The price is expected to oscillate [5][7] - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP is 6910 - 7080 yuan/ton. The production profit of different raw material - based PP varies. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate is currently low but is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak demand season. The market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price in East China, North China, and South China has adjusted weakly. The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and recovered, and the demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. However, exports will be affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The supply remains high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis and reference for analyzing the market trends of various energy - chemical products by presenting the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 27 and 26, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil in the week ending August 22, which is the first time since the US government issued a new license to Chevron to operate in Venezuela. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30, with different lifting times for fuel manufacturers and non - manufacturers [14] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, helping to analyze the long - term price trends of these products [16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for understanding the relationship between spot and futures prices [30][32][36][38][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49][52][54][57][60] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, helping to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [62][63][64][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profit data of multiple energy - chemical products, which is helpful for understanding the profitability of different products [67][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional backgrounds in the energy - chemical field, and they have won many industry awards [73][74][75][76]