2026 年度能化策略报告 光期研究 2026 年度能化策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 2026 年度能化策略报告 目录 | 原油：秩序更迭 积重难返 3 | | --- | | 油品：殊途未同 33 | | 集运：潮汐如故 52 | | 橡胶：沉潜蓄势 66 | | PX&PTA&MEG：破局向需 91 | | 聚烯烃：负重前行 117 | | PVC：踟蹰不前 134 | | 甲醇：逆水行舟 146 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度能化策略报告 原油：秩序更迭 积重难返 研究所副所长：钟美燕 年报摘要： ⚫ 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年一季度油价创下年内高点后重心下移，受到中美关税政策与 OPEC 超预期增产影响，布油运行区间在 81-63 美元/桶；二季度油价先跌 后涨，6 月伊以局势演绎下油价急涨急跌，布油峰值在 76 美元/桶。三季度， 夏季出行高峰支撑需求，同时伊朗、委内瑞拉等国产量的非预期减少可能加 剧市场紧张，油价区间震荡。季节性需求 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点评 11 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 8285 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.06%，持仓 减仓 24683 手至 14.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9580 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 565 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 55765 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.32%，持仓 增仓 9032 手至 11.7 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 3465 元/ 吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中在套保单或 未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上延续高库 存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。近月仓单增长较慢，盘面虚实偏 高给予当前近月支撑，叠加收储公司注册消息给予情绪推动，晶硅延续高 位格局。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，并再创历史新高。宏观方面，有媒体报导，华尔街普遍认为， | | | 美联储 12 月会议虽流露鹰派信号，如内部罕见分歧、强调数据依赖，但并未动摇其宽松 | | | 基调。国内方面，中国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，创 2024 年 3 月来最高，PPI 同比降幅 | | | 略有扩大，关注中央经济工作会议。库存方面，LME 铜库存增加 875 吨至 165850 吨； | | 铜 | COMEX 铜仓单增加 1934 吨至 405786 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 2530 吨至 31460 吨；BC | | | 铜增加 1237 吨至 6166 吨。美联储为呵护金融市场流动性购买短债的动作以及缩表结束 | | | 扩表预期成为昨晚铜反弹诱因，宏观氛围回暖，不过接下来市场可能关注日央行是否有 | | | 加息动作，或带来一定的宏观扰动。整体来看铜维系基本面 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.19% to 64 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.65% to 13,860 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 30,671 lots to 443,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,630 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan per ton from the previous day. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, but there were differences among voting members on the subsequent rate - cut path. The USDA December report slightly increased the expected output of U.S. cotton in the 2025/26 season. The domestic market had no obvious fundamental changes, and the focus of the market kept switching. High out - of - Xinjiang freight affected cotton transportation. The cotton consumption in November remained relatively high, but the consumption in the second half of November was lower than that in the first half. Currently, there are both long and short factors for Zhengzhou cotton, and it is in a short - term shock pattern with the upside space potentially larger than the downside space [1]. - For sugar, the spot price quotes were flat. The production progress in India and Thailand was within the expected increase range in the short term. Whether the raw - sugar price can give India export profits needs to be observed in the medium term. The domestic spot price has stabilized recently, the near - month contract on the futures market has stopped falling, and the May contract is hovering at a low level. It is in a short - term shock pattern, and the medium - term outlook is still not optimistic [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1153 yuan, down 71 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,835 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan, and the national spot price was 15,013 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 124 yuan, up 24 yuan; the main - contract basis was 215 yuan, up 83 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On December 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2967, 3 less than the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 3585. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 14,835 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,096 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,017 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,198 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.8, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.6, down 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.5, up 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On December 11, the sugar spot price in Nanning was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Liuzhou was 5460 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 611, an increase of 215 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1490 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][15][17]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 757.0 | 769.0 | -12.0 | I05-I09 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 733.0 | 745.0 | -12.0 | I09-I01 | -47.0 | -42.5 | -4.5 | | I01 | 780.0 | 787.5 | -7.5 | I01-I05 | 23.0 | 18.5 | 4.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 2.2 基差：图表 p 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2025-03 2025-05 202 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 观点 | | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周四尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，走势先扬后抑，01合约收盘价1638元/吨，跌幅0.55% | | | 。05合约收盘价1703元/吨，跌幅0.64%。现货市场涨跌互现，主流地区市场价波动 | | | 幅度-10~ + 10元/吨，山东、河南地区市场价格昨日分别为1710元/吨、1690元/吨， | | | 日环比分别上调10元/吨、持平。基本面来看，尿素供应水平近两日再次下降，昨日 | | | 行业日产量19.58万吨，日环比降0.32万吨，后续供应依旧面临气头企业降负荷及检 | | | 修企业复产的博弈。需求方面，农业储备需求略有放缓，但下游行业对尿素刚需较 宽幅 震荡 | | | 为坚挺。昨日主流地区产销率降至5%~80%区间，成交氛围有所减弱且区域间继续分 | | | 化。本周尿素企业库存继续下降4.36%，厂家挺价心态浓厚。但受到化肥行业其他品 | | | 种会议利空消息影响，短期尿素市场情绪受到压制。整体来看，当前尿素市场驱动 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The corn market is in a state of shock. The futures price of the 2603 contract stabilized at the support of the 20 - day moving average, and the near - month 2601 contract continued to reduce positions with funds shifting to the March contract. The spot price in the Northeast is slightly weak, and the purchase and sales activity in the market is not high. Technically, the 3 - and 5 - month contracts face price pressure, and short - term technical adjustments are required. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions with a light position, and the medium - term trend continues to face the pressure of the previous high on the weekly chart [2]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fluctuated little due to weak export data and a slight downward adjustment of the Brazilian soybean production forecast by some institutions. The domestic protein meal continued to rebound, with a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The increase of soybean meal exceeded that of rapeseed meal. There is news that the customs will extend the clearance time of imported soybeans, which drives the price of soybean meal up. The strategy is mainly short - term [2]. - Oils: BMD palm oil rose slightly, following the strength of the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 10 decreased by 15% month - on - month, but the yield increased by 6.87% month - on - month. The decline in the production reduction expectation restricted the increase of the Malaysian palm oil price. The US soybean oil declined, following the decline of crude oil. In the domestic market, the oils continued to recover, with rapeseed oil leading the rise. The terminal demand for oils is weak. The strategy is to sell call options and participate in the futures market short - term [2]. - Eggs: The egg futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply is sufficient, which limits the rebound of the egg price. The short - term futures price fluctuates and adjusts. It is recommended to wait and see for future operation opportunities, and continuously pay attention to the impact of the breeding end's replenishment and elimination willingness on production capacity [2][3]. - Pigs: The futures price of pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The near - month contracts are affected by factors such as the spot price and pig diseases, and the price hits a new low. The 7 - and 9 - month contracts in the long - term have limited declines. The spot pig price is strong in the north and weak in the south. Technically, the long - term contracts of pigs show a relatively strong performance, and it is judged that the long - term contracts of pigs will continue to rebound with light - position long orders [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Research Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs on Thursday, December 12, 2025, including futures price trends, spot price changes, and supply - demand situations, and gives corresponding investment strategies [2][3]. Market Information - The US 2025/2026 annual soybean export net sales are 69.6 tons, and the 2026/2027 annual soybean net sales are 0 tons [4]. - US private exporters reported selling 26.4 tons of soybeans to China and 18.6 tons of corn and 22.6 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 year [4]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the 2025/26 annual soybean production will reach 1.771236 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the sown area will reach 48.9356 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [4]. - The China National Grain Reserves Corporation will conduct central reserve frozen pork rotation and outbound auction transactions on December 15, 16, and 17, with 20,500 tons, 21,500 tons, and 4,500 tons respectively [5]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various variety spreads, including contract spreads (such as corn 1 - 5 spread, soybean meal 1 - 5 spread, etc.) and contract basis (such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc.) through multiple charts [6][7][8][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily data tracking of stock index futures on December 11, 2025, including index trends, the impact of sector movements on indices, basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and points differences and annualized costs during contract roll - overs [1] Summary by Directory Index Trends - On December 11, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.7% to close at 3873.32 points, with a trading volume of 764.35 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.27% to 13147.39 points, with a trading volume of 1092.762 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index decreased 1.3% with a trading volume of 381.934 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index declined 1.02% with a trading volume of 300.745 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index dropped 0.39% with a trading volume of 96.981 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index fell 0.86% with a trading volume of 432.431 billion yuan [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 dropped 96.24 points compared to the previous closing price, with sectors such as computer and electronics significantly pulling the index down [2] - The CSI 500 dropped 73.1 points, and sectors like computer, machinery, and electronics had a significant downward - pulling effect [2] - The SSE 300 dropped 39.65 points, and non - bank finance, electronics, and communication sectors pulled the index down [2] - The SSE 50 dropped 11.61 points, with sectors like banking and food and beverage pulling the index up, while national defense and military industry, non - bank finance, and electronics pulled it down [2] Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 34.69, IM01 of - 116.19, IM02 of - 281.81, and IM03 of - 526.96 [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 30.34, IC01 of - 90.88, IC02 of - 212.04, and IC03 of - 420.09 [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 18.46, IF01 of - 34.7, IF02 of - 59.83, and IF03 of - 105.72 [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 7.28, IH01 of - 12.66, IH02 of - 16.34, and IH03 of - 30.32 [12] Points Differences and Annualized Costs during Contract Roll - Overs - For IM contracts, data on points differences and annualized costs at different 15 - minute intervals from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 75.8461, IM00 - 02 was - 236.345, etc. [20] - Similar data for IC, IF, and IH contracts at different 15 - minute intervals are also presented, including points differences and annualized costs [22][24]

碳酸锂日报 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 3.97%至 98880 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 800 元/吨至 93500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 750 元/吨至 91000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 400 元/吨至 82330 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 1070 吨至 14750 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 59 吨至 21998 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 260 吨至 13744 吨，锂云母 产量环比减少 200 吨至 2876 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 15 吨至 3075 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 14 吨至 2303 吨；12 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 3%至 98210 吨。需求端，12 月预计三元材料产量环比下降 7%至 78280 吨，预计磷酸铁锂产量环比下滑 1%至 41 万吨。库存端，周度库存环比减少 2133 吨至 111469 吨，其中下游减少 957 吨至 42738 吨，其他环节库存增加 430 吨至 49570 吨，上游库存环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to have narrow - range consolidation. Although the current supply - demand situation of rebar is strong, with production and inventory decreasing and demand falling, the expected increase in steel mill复产 in January and the weakening of demand in the off - season may accumulate supply - demand contradictions [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a weakening trend in the short term, with the price affected by factors such as supply changes and increased blast furnace maintenance [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. Coking coal is affected by slow supply recovery and weak downstream procurement, while coke is affected by the second - round price cut and reduced demand from steel mills [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are expected to have oscillations. The manganese - silicon market is supported by cost but lacks upward drivers, and the silicon - iron market has supply reduction but an overall loose supply - demand pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price fell, with the 2605 contract closing at 3069 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume declined. Production, inventory, and apparent demand all decreased. The current supply - demand is strong, but future supply - demand contradictions may accumulate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 price of iron ore futures fell to 757 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6%. Supply from Australia increased, while that from Brazil decreased. Demand decreased due to increased blast furnace maintenance, resulting in a decrease in molten iron production. Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell, with the 2605 contract closing at 1035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27%. Supply recovery was slow, and downstream procurement was weak due to the second - round price cut of coke [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price fell, with the 2601 contract closing at 1491.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32%. The second - round price cut was initiated, and production and demand decreased due to factors such as environmental protection measures and steel mill maintenance [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price weakened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5712 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The mainstream steel procurement price decreased, production costs were high, and inventory was accumulating [4]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price weakened slightly, with the main contract closing at 5418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The mainstream steel procurement price decreased, some producers had a strong willingness to reduce production, and inventory was at a high level [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Price Difference**: Data on the price differences between 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months, etc. for various varieties are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous period [5]. - **Basis**: The basis data of the 01 and 05 contracts for each variety are given, along with their changes compared to the previous period [5]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their changes are presented [5]. - **Profit and Price Difference**: Data on the profit and price differences between different varieties are provided, such as the rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and price differences between different varieties [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 - 2025 are provided [7][8][9][11][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presenting the basis of the main contracts of various varieties from 2022 - 2026 are provided [18][20][24][26]. - **Inter - period Contract Price Difference**: Charts showing the price differences between different periods of various varieties are provided, such as 1 - 5 months and 5 - 10 months [28][30][35][36][37][40][41]. - **Inter - variety Contract Price Difference**: Charts presenting the price differences between different varieties, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar price difference and the rebar - iron ore ratio, are provided [46][47][48][50]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 - 2025 are provided [52][55]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [58][59].