1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market was affected by the Fed's dovish stance, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Policies such as Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system have also had an impact. The liquidity market is expected to continue, but with a narrowing focus of funds, and there may be short - term fluctuations while having the potential for long - term upward movement [1]. - The bond market rebounded this week due to expectations of Fed rate cuts in September and increased expectations of domestic monetary policy efforts. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a high - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On August 27, 2025, IH decreased by 1.70% to 2,920.2, IF decreased by 1.46% to 4,384.0, IC decreased by 1.14% to 6,837.8, and IM decreased by 1.73% to 7,287.2 [3]. - **Stock indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 1.73% to 2,918.4, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.49% to 4,386.1, the CSI 500 decreased by 1.46% to 6,862.6, and the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.87% to 7,336.5 [3]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On August 27, 2025, TS increased by 0.01% to 102.41, TF increased by 0.03% to 105.59, T increased by 0.02% to 108.02, and TL increased by 0.11% to 117.40 [3]. 3.2 Market News - From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IC, IM, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Charts display the trends of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange rates**: Charts present the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar - RMB and euro - RMB exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][22][24][26].

软商品日报 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.97%，报收 66.67 美分/磅，CF601 环比下跌 0.11%，报收 14100 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 3455 手至 50.81 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15235 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 135 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15334 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 99 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍需持续关注，目前市场已经基本 | | | | 定价 9 月降息 25bp，关注后续是否会有超预期扰动，昨日美元指数与美棉价格共 | | | | 振下行。基本面驱动有限，USDA8 月报环比调减 2025/26 年度美棉产量预期值 30.2 | | | 棉花 | 万吨，关注后续美国干旱扰动。国内市场方面。2025 年棉花滑准税配额发布，20 | | | | 万吨加工贸易进口配额，部分缓解库存短缺担忧。市场关注重心将逐渐转向新棉， | | | | 展 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black commodity market is generally volatile. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, production restrictions, and market sentiment, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined, with the 2510 contract closing at 3113 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices also dropped slightly, and the inventory has been accumulating counter - seasonally since August. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.33%. Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, while iron - water production increased. With multiple factors at play, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1160.5 yuan/ton, down 4.52%. The supply is affected by frequent disturbances, and the demand is slightly weakened due to the approaching parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract of coke closed at 1681 yuan/ton, down 3.17%. Coke enterprises initiated the eighth round of price increases, and the production is affected by environmental protection during the parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly, closing at 5862 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The production is increasing, while the demand is stimulated limitedly. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly to 5656 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by downstream production. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different varieties have different contract spreads and their changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 72.0 with a 14.0 change [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different values and changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar being 187.0 with a 15.0 change [4]. - **Spot prices**: Spot prices of different varieties in different regions have different trends, for example, the Shanghai rebar price dropped by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and spreads**: There are also data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as the rebar disk profit being - 51.7 with a 19.8 change [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are historical price trend charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 - 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [7][9][13] - **Main contract basis**: The charts show the historical basis trends of various black commodities, helping to understand the price differences between futures and spot [19][20] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: The charts display the historical spreads between different contracts of various black commodities, which is useful for analyzing price relationships between different periods [28][30] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: The charts show the historical spreads between different varieties of black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [43] - **Rebar profits**: There are charts showing the historical profits of rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and expertise in the black commodity research field [54][55]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents a "volatile" view on various agricultural products including corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand factors, and price trends, and also gives corresponding trading strategies [1][2] 3) Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: The corn futures market is in a volatile state. The spot price is weak, with the price in Northeast China moving towards the new - grain price and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the short - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the November contract at the 2150 integer mark [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to technical trading, and the US soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic soybean meal production has increased and prices have declined. Market expectations of a US soybean purchase agreement and state - reserve soybean auctions are affecting the market. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and participate in monthly positive spreads [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil declined due to profit - taking. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased, while the production decreased. The domestic three major vegetable oils are mainly volatile, with inventory pressure increasing and demand remaining weak. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is estimated to strengthen. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures are in a low - level volatile adjustment. The spot price has a slight increase, with stable terminal digestion and most traders purchasing as they sell. The supply pressure still affects the spot price, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2] - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weakly volatile. The spot price has declined, with large - scale farms increasing their slaughter volume and supply exceeding market digestion. According to seasonal patterns, there is support for pig prices as demand recovers, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the reaction of the futures market to spot prices and changes in policies and market sentiment [2] Market Information - As of August 24, EU's 2025/26 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and corn all decreased compared to the same period last year [3] - As of August 26, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 410,000 tons compared to the previous week [3] - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [3] - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production decreased by 1.21% [3] Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][18][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated higher, and domestic copper was slightly stronger. The US July durable goods orders initial value was -2.8% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, but still in decline for the second consecutive month. Excluding transportation equipment, the orders increased by 3.8% year - on - year. LME, Comex, SHFE copper inventories all decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper production benefits refined copper substitution. The US may expand the key minerals list, which could re - evaluate copper resources. Although there are concerns about US copper inventory impacting overseas, domestic post - off - season demand may drive LME de - stocking and copper price stabilization, but the September peak season may be weaker than the first half of the year [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were slightly stronger. Alumina prices fell, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots reached par. The resumption of alumina production increased, and the expectation of oversupply pressured prices. However, cost support strengthened due to factors like restricted ore mining. The inflow of domestic aluminum ingots decreased, and downstream stocking increased. Whether it's a cyclical inflection point needs further confirmation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME and domestic inventories decreased. The Indonesian government shortened the mineral and coal production period. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel supply increased, with some inventory pressure, but the cost of nickel - iron rose. Ternary demand in the new energy sector was strengthening, and the supply of raw materials was relatively tight. Overall, the fundamentals changed little, and prices were still in a volatile range [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper and domestic copper showed different trends. Macro data in the US had mixed impacts. Inventory decreased in multiple markets. Demand is expected to improve as the off - season ends. The potential expansion of the US key minerals list may affect copper value. There are concerns about US copper inventory, but domestic demand may drive price recovery [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weak, while other aluminum products were slightly stronger. Price, inventory, and supply - demand factors all influenced the market. The balance between supply resumption and cost support determined the price trend. The change in aluminum ingot inventory needs further observation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices rose, and inventories decreased. Policy changes in Indonesia, stable nickel ore prices, and different trends in stainless steel and new energy sectors all contributed to the overall market situation, with prices remaining volatile [2][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the premium decreased. The price of scrap copper and the refined - scrap price difference also changed. Inventory decreased in LME and SHFE. Other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and import profit also showed fluctuations [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead and related products increased. Lead concentrate prices and processing fees had some changes. LME and SHFE inventories decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in different regions and the premium changed. Raw material prices and downstream processing fees were relatively stable. LME and SHFE inventories showed different trends, and the social inventory of alumina decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of electrolytic nickel increased slightly. Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless steel prices were mostly stable. The prices of new energy - related products decreased. LME and SHFE inventories decreased, and the social inventory of nickel increased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. LME and SHFE inventories changed in different directions, and the social inventory increased. Other indicators such as premiums and processing fees remained stable [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly. LME and SHFE inventories decreased. The price of tin concentrate decreased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has extensive experience in commodity research and has won multiple awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research, both providing valuable reports and services to clients [49][50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On August 27, 2025, the urea futures price was weakly volatile, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,737 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.52%. The spot market was partially stable, and prices in some peripheral areas continued to decline. The urea supply was fluctuating at a high level, with a daily output of 192,400 tons on August 26, a daily increase of 100 tons. The demand side remained cautious, and the spot sales-to-production ratio in the mainstream areas showed significant differentiation. The short - term domestic urea market sentiment was under pressure, but subsequent environmental protection restrictions in the north, transportation conditions, and the latest Indian urea tender results in early September could be new factors. The volatility of the urea futures market may increase [1]. - On August 27, 2025, the soda ash futures price first fluctuated narrowly and then dropped significantly in the afternoon. The main 01 contract closed at 1,311 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.80%. The spot market quotation was basically stable, and the traders' quotations declined with the market sentiment. Large - scale enterprises in Qinghai and Inner Mongolia reduced their loads, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 81.33% on August 26. The demand side was even weaker, and the resumption of production in the float glass industry provided limited support for the rigid demand of soda ash. The overall fundamentals of soda ash had no obvious improvement, and the short - term new driving forces in the futures market were still limited. There might be phased market conditions as themes such as the reduction of alkali plant loads, production restrictions, and the return of the chemical sector sentiment fermented [1]. - On August 27, 2025, the glass futures price was weakly volatile, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,173 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%. The spot market quotation increased locally, and the average price of the domestic float glass market on August 26 was 1,151 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton. There was a phenomenon of production line ignition and resumption, but the glass daily melting volume remained stable at 159,600 tons. The glass supply was expected to increase. The demand side sentiment improved, and the sales - to - production ratio in the mainstream areas mostly recovered to over 100%. However, logistics and transportation restrictions in some areas might suppress the enterprise's shipment speed. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of glass was still not optimistic [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Information - **Urea**: On August 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts at Zhengshang Institute were 5,123, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecasts were 33. The daily output of the urea industry was 192,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous working day and 24,900 tons from the same period last year. The industry operating rate was 83.12%, a 7.17 - percentage - point increase from 75.95% in the same period last year. The spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hebei 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,720 yuan/ton (- 10), Jiangsu 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. - **Soda Ash & Glass**: On August 26, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts at Zhengshang Institute was 9,178, a decrease of 135 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast volume was 1,911; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,099, an increase of 456 from the previous trading day. The soda ash spot prices in various regions were provided. The soda ash industry operating rate on August 26 was 81.33%, down from 83.98% on the previous working day. The average price of the float glass market on August 26 was 1,151 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1 yuan/ton, and the industry daily output was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts such as the closing price of the main contract, basis, trading volume and open interest, price spread, spot price trend, and futures price spread of urea, soda ash, and glass, which visually show the price trends and relationships of these products over time [9][10][12][16][18][20]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen. They have rich experience and many honors in the field of futures analysis, covering various product categories such as sugar, urea, soda ash, cotton, and iron alloy [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 26, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.75% to 79,020 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped 800 yuan/ton to 81,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 800 yuan/ton to 79,400 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined 250 yuan/ton to 77,080 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 1,060 tons to 26,690 tons [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Zimbabwe's lithium exports surged 30% to 586,197 tons of spodumene concentrate, highlighting its growing influence in the global supply chain [3]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply - side production slowed down slightly due to mica shutdown. With the previous price increase and more overseas imports, spodumene - based lithium production is expected to continue rising. The high ore price still supports the lithium carbonate price. The total demand in August increased 6% month - on - month, and downstream production scheduling may remain strong in September, a traditional peak season. The social inventory remains at 141,000 tons with a two - week slight destocking trend [3]. - After the rapid price increase last week, lithium carbonate prices face short - term correction pressure and await new driving factors. Short - term focus is on lithium ore transaction prices, and medium - term attention is on the progress of other projects that need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract decreased 360 yuan/ton to 79,020 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract dropped 320 yuan/ton to 79,260 yuan/ton. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) fell 5 dollars/ton to 920 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) decreased 20 yuan/ton to 1,245 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ores and lithium salts: Most prices declined, such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide. The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 56,200 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 550 yuan/ton to - 4,620 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most ternary precursors and cathode materials remained stable, with only a few showing minor decreases [5]. - Batteries: The prices of most batteries and cells were stable, with only a few showing small changes [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price differences: Charts display the price differences between different lithium products, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][22]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and cathode materials from 2024 to 2025 [25][27][29]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][34]. - Inventory: Charts show the downstream and smelter inventory trends of lithium carbonate in 2025 [38]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [44].

中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-1.26 点，基础化工,通信,房地产等板块对指数向上拉动明显，计算机,电力设备,医药生物等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨 12.17 点，计算机,基础化工,电力设备等板块对指数向上拉动明显，医药生物,国防军工,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 沪深 300 较前收盘价上涨-16.63 点，农林牧渔,基础化工等板块对指数向上拉动明显，通信,银行,非银金融等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 上证 50 较前收盘价上涨-20.07 点，等板块对指数向上拉动明显，医药生物,非银金融,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-08-27 一、指数走势 08 月 26 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.39%，收于 3868.38 点，成交额 11141.88 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅 0.26%，收于 12473.17 点，成交额 15648.32 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.02%，成交额 5733.43 亿元，其中开盘价 7457.77，收盘价 7476.47，当日最高价 7526.17，最低价 7435.3； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅 0.18%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 26, industrial silicon showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.85%. The position decreased by 7,286 lots to 282,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan remained stable at 9,478 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 175 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,985 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.06%. The position increased by 677 lots to 137,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 2,130 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rise in silicon coal prices. The shipment volume from silicon factories to traders was high, while the purchase volume from downstream was low. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti - involution, the price of polysilicon was basically under control. With the production increase in the southwest region, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase, but the industrial clearance was not actually promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand [2]. - The market is highly focused on the anti - involution meeting recently. The relevant dynamics have an absolute driving force on the short - term market and may guide the correction of expectations and the callback range of the premium. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling at high positions. The implementation rules of the energy - saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions promoted by policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Industrial silicon futures closed lower on August 26, with a decrease in positions. The spot price was stable, and the premium of the lowest deliverable product expanded. Polysilicon futures also closed lower, with an increase in positions. The price of N - type recycled material rose, and the discount of the lowest deliverable product narrowed [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased, and the market supply - demand relationship was unbalanced. The anti - involution had an impact on the polysilicon market, but the industrial clearance was not effective [2]. - The market is affected by the anti - involution meeting, and policy - related production restrictions need attention [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased on August 26 compared to August 25. The prices of most spot products remained stable, but the prices of some products such as 421 silicon in some regions decreased [5]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 120 yuan/ton [5]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the inventory in some ports decreased, and the factory inventory increased [5]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased on August 26 compared to August 25. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable [5]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained unchanged, and the spot discount decreased by 430 yuan/ton [5]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased [5]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable, and the prices of some products such as raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11] 3.3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][18][20] 3.3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes, as well as the DMC and polysilicon weekly inventories [23][26][31] 3.3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [32][34][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, and provides short - term price trend views for each product, mostly indicating an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices declined. WTI October contract closed down $1.55 to $63.25 per barrel, a 2.39% drop; Brent October contract closed down $1.58 to $67.22 per barrel, a 2.3% drop; SC2510 closed at 486.8 yuan per barrel, down 10.9 yuan or 2.19%. Due to the US tariff increase on Indian goods, Indian refineries are expected to reduce Russian oil purchases. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average, a 22% decrease. API data showed a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Domestic refined oil retail prices were lowered. The current oil price is oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE declined. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and low valuations, FU rose strongly this week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened due to concerns about abundant arbitrage cargo supply and weak demand. High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will persist. Currently, FU is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Asphalt**: In August, asphalt demand was lower than expected due to capital recovery and rainy weather. In September, demand is expected to increase in both northern and southern markets. Refineries with crude oil quotas have good profit margins, and production is expected to be stable. With a slight rebound in oil prices, the absolute price of BU has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed up 0.16% at 4870 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.42% at 4490 yuan per ton. PX futures rose 0.34%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Demand improvement and supply contraction bring positive support, and PX and TA still have room for growth. High ethylene glycol operating load and low port inventory are favorable for its price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed mixed trends. Thailand's natural rubber exports in July increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The 13th typhoon affected production areas, and raw material prices were firm. Tire exports increased, providing demand support. The fundamentals are strong, and short - term rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. There are maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in September and October, and butadiene prices are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic plant maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, which will gradually recover. Iranian plants have high operating loads, and short - term arrivals will remain high but may decrease in the long term. The MTO plant load in East China is not high, and port inventories will increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The production profit margins of various polyolefin production methods vary. Supply will remain high, and downstream demand is currently low but is expected to improve with the approaching peak season. Overall, polyolefins are moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand, and prices will oscillate narrowly [6][7]. - **PVC**: The PVC market prices in different regions showed different trends on Tuesday. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing, and demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. Supply remains high, exports will weaken due to Indian anti - dumping policies. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on August 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US plans to double the tariff on Indian goods to 50% from Wednesday, which is expected to reduce India's recent purchases of Russian oil. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average [10]. - API data shows that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories declined last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][21]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [25][27][31][33][36][37]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - **Inter - product Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [57][61][59][63]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [65][67]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [70]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has won multiple industry awards [71]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, has won industry - related honors [72]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading [73].