光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格继续走高，主力09合约收盘价1774元/吨，日内涨幅3.99%。现货 | 看涨 | | | 市场继续明显反弹，主流地区市场价格再度上涨10~50元/吨不等，目前山东、河南 | | | | 地区市场价格分别为1810元/吨、1790元/吨，日环比分别上涨50元/吨、40元/吨。基 | | | | 本面来看，尿素供应水平依旧高位波动，行业日产量昨日20.31万吨，日环比下降0. | | | | 02万吨。需求端在期、现市场情绪持续回暖带动下，现货成交氛围仍积极，昨日主 | | | | 流地区现货产销率均维持在100%以上，个别地区超200%。后续在国内追肥需求、出 | | | | 口有序推进的带动下，现货高成交短期或依旧维持。中东地缘政治对全球尿素供需 | | | | 及价格扰动仍存，但随着时间推移市场情绪或逐步回归理性。整体来看，尿素期货 | | | | 市场情绪短期依旧较为积极，主力期价也仍有继续上 可能。但尿素 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 点评 17 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2507 收于 34010 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.07%，持 仓减仓 7834 手至 43443 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/ 吨，最低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 35500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 1490 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2509 收于 7360 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.1%，持仓减仓 4470 手至 31.9 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 8636 元/ 吨，较上一交易日持稳。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 215 元/吨。随着硅煤电极等成本重心下调，西南电价优惠落地， 复产陆续推进，工业硅结束超跌修复、重归下行节奏。多晶硅增减产并 行，大部分厂家大规模减产，仍有西南少量厂家有增产计划。拉晶端即用 即采且倾向于低品混包硅料，压价态度坚决。晶硅库存周转延至 1 个半 月，降库重压下持续降价态势难以避免，现货升水稳步收敛。因企业大量 交仓盘面多头挤仓逻辑结束，反弹动力不再，延续弱势震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | | 周二，生猪 9 月小阳线收盘，猪价区间上移。河南猪价上涨，目前河南生猪市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 出栏均价为 14.27 元/公斤，较上周五涨 0.26 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良 种猪主流出栏价格 14.20-14.50 元/公斤；中小场 120-130 公斤良种主流出栏价格 | | | 生猪 | 14.00 元/公斤左右，高价 14.20 元/公斤，个别低价 13.80 元/公斤；150-160 公斤 | 上涨 | | | 大猪出栏价格 14.20 元/公斤。屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收购价格 14.00 元/ | | | | 公斤左右，均重 115-125 公斤。技术上，现货猪价企稳对生猪期价提供支撑，生 | | | | 猪 9 月合约在玉米、豆粕等成本上行的预期下，价格区间抬升，多头思路延续。 | | 二、市场信息 农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米减仓 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.56%，报收 67.64 美分/磅，CF509 环比上涨 0.08%，报收 13525 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 3985 手至 53.35 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14762 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 47 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14862 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日上涨 42 元/吨。国际市场方面，地缘冲突加剧，原油价格持续上涨。"美联储 | | | | 传声筒"会前放声称，"若非关税，美联储本周就会降息"，但目前预计本周会议 | | | | 美联储官员仍将采取观望状态。美元指数走强，美棉价格下行。国内市场方面，原 | | | | 油价格上行对郑棉有一定影响。国内陈棉库存处于近年来同期偏低水平，但短期也 | | | | 无库存短缺担忧，新棉丰产预期较强。下游需求表现相对偏弱，纺织企业开机负荷 | | | | 环比小幅下降，库存水平在持续累积， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

Index Trends - On June 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.04%, closing at 3387.4 points with a trading volume of 458.038 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.12%, closing at 10151.43 points with a trading volume of 749.175 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.1%, with a trading volume of 260.874 billion yuan, an opening price of 6153.15, a closing price of 6141.47, a daily high of 6171.17, and a daily low of 6120.57 [1] - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.29%, with a trading volume of 160.122 billion yuan, an opening price of 5772.3, a closing price of 5750.91, a daily high of 5776.63, and a daily low of 5734.83 [1] - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.04%, with a trading volume of 63.517 billion yuan, an opening price of 2685.39, a closing price of 2683.95, a daily high of 2688.61, and a daily low of 2672.68 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose -5.99 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as power equipment, transportation, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like non - ferrous metals, media, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] - The CSI 500 rose -16.9 points compared to the previous closing price. The computer sector significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, media, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] - The SSE 300 rose -3.42 points compared to the previous closing price. Utilities, coal, and household appliances significantly pulled the index up, while electronics, banking, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] - The SSE 50 rose -1.06 points compared to the previous closing price. Food and beverage, coal, and utilities significantly pulled the index up, while automotive, electronics, and pharmaceuticals pulled it down [3] Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM futures, IM00 had an average daily basis of -19.9, IM01 of -112.91, IM02 of -275.04, and IM03 of -454.42 [13] - For IC futures, IC00 had an average daily basis of -10.22, IC01 of -80.18, IC02 of -186.51, and IC03 of -311.44 [13] - For IF futures, IF00 had an average daily basis of -5.49, IF01 of -46.68, IF02 of -74.45, and IF03 of -105.66 [13] - For IH futures, IH00 had an average daily basis of -5.85, IH01 of -42.29, IH02 of -43.99, and IH03 of -46.18 [13] Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IC futures, data shows point differences and annualized costs at different time intervals, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -26.1467, IC00 - 02 was -90.0318, etc. [25] - For IF futures, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -5.99267, IF00 - 02 was -13.4098, etc. [25] - For IH futures, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was -1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc. [29] - For IM futures, at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -53.1193, IM00 - 02 was -158.791, etc. [28]

Research Views - The A-share market fluctuated and declined, with the Wind All A index down 0.1% and a trading volume of 1.24 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices also declined. The market is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict and potential policy changes in June [1]. - The performance of Chinese assets has been strong since June, with both stocks and bonds rising. Factors include the resumption of Sino-US communication, potential changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and the upcoming Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The recent PPI data shows that China's inflation level remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may turn into a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation". The consumer and technology sectors may still be dominant in the market style [1]. - In terms of corporate earnings, the decline in the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, but it is still lower than the policy interest rate. The net profit has increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the stage of bottoming out [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts up 0.24%, 0.14%, 0.15%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 1973 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with the interest rate remaining stable at 1.4%. The net withdrawal of funds was 1833 billion yuan [1][2]. - The bond market strengthened slightly due to the loosening of the capital market, but the economy shows strong resilience under the influence of the "rush to export" effect and stable growth policies. The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,680.8 | 2,678.4 | 2.4 | 0.09% | | IF | 3,868.6 | 3,869.8 | -1.2 | -0.03% | | IC | 5,748.4 | 5,756.2 | -7.8 | -0.14% | | IM | 6,130.0 | 6,127.4 | 2.6 | 0.04% | Stock Indices | Index | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,684.0 | 2,685.0 | -1.1 | -0.04% | | CSI 300 | 3,870.4 | 3,873.8 | -3.4 | -0.09% | | CSI 500 | 5,750.9 | 5,767.8 | -16.9 | -0.29% | | CSI 1000 | 6,141.5 | 6,147.5 | -6.0 | -0.10% | Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025-06-17 | 2025-06-16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.54 | 102.47 | 0.074 | 0.07% | | TF | 106.30 | 106.15 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 109.16 | 109.02 | 0.145 | 0.13% | | TL | 120.82 | 120.52 | 0.3 | 0.25% | Market News - The Bank of Japan will conduct a mid-term review of its bond purchase program in June next year and will slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases due to concerns about market volatility [5]. - The Bank of Japan believes that inflation expectations are not yet stable and that there are two-way risks to prices. Trade policy is highly uncertain, and tariff issues may affect next year's spring wage negotiations [6]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [8][9][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [15][17][19]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates, currency indices, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][26].

Research Views Corn - Monday saw corn reducing positions and adjusting, with the main funds of the July contract shifting to the September contract, which became the main contract. The futures price fluctuated around the 2400 yuan mark. The wheat price increase supported corn in the spot market. Last week, Northeast corn prices were mainly strong, and traders were reluctant to sell at lower prices. The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast also increased. Over the weekend, North China corn prices were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised corn prices by 10 yuan/ton. The corn price in the sales area was stable. The high corn price limited downstream acceptance, and wheat substitution restricted corn's increase. Technically, corn's recent positions have been decreasing. After the long - position holders take profits, pay attention to whether the September price can break through 2400 yuan. Participate in short - term long positions with a light position. The view is "oscillation" [1]. Soybean Meal - On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell from their highs. Although the rise of US soybean oil was positive for soybean prices, rainfall in the production area was beneficial for crop growth, suppressing price increases. The crop report showed that the US soybean harvest was near the end, and the crops were growing well. Weak demand and sufficient global supply, along with abundant global wheat supply, dragged down soybean prices. In China, the sharp rise of edible oils made protein meals relatively weak, and capital adjustment of the oil - meal ratio pressured protein meals. Last week, domestic oil mills' soybean inventories decreased, soybean meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The weekly soybean crushing exceeded 2.2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 27,500 tons, with the inventory increase slowing down, indicating good terminal demand. Hold the 91 and 15 positive spreads of soybean meal and adopt a unilateral long - position strategy. The view is "oscillation and upward" [1]. Edible Oils - On Monday, BMD palm oil rose for the third consecutive day, following the rise of US soybean oil. The significant increase in the biodiesel blending target directly benefited soybean oil prices. High - frequency data showed that from June 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 14.3% - 26.3% month - on - month, while production decreased by 4% month - on - month. In China, edible oils followed the upward trend, with palm oil leading the rise, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having a weaker increase. Last week, the inventory of the three major edible oils increased by 2.87% month - on - month. Domestic edible oil supply was sufficient. Pay attention to US biodiesel policies and crude oil. Participate in short - term trading, and buy September and sell January for soybean oil and palm oil. The view is "oscillation and upward" [1]. Eggs - On Monday, the main 2508 contract of egg futures strengthened after opening and then declined slightly at the end of the session, closing up 0.73% at 3582 yuan/500 kilograms. The 2509 contract adjusted narrowly, closing up 0.47%. The national egg price increased by 0.08 yuan/jin. In the short term, most egg prices in the production area increased, and in the sales area, procurement costs mostly increased. Terminal consumption improved, and traders generally followed the market. After the previous low egg prices, there was a slight rebound in the production area. However, considering the increasing supply before August and the adverse effects of the rainy season, the spot egg price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in farmers' culling willingness and feed raw material prices. The view is "oscillation" [1][2]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the pig price of the July contract increased, and the September contract was flat, with the price range moving up. The pig price in Henan increased, with the average slaughter price reaching 14.27 yuan/kg. The spot pig price stability supported the futures price. With the expected increase in the cost of corn and soybean meal, the price range of the September contract of live pigs moved up. Adopt a long - position strategy. The view is "upward" [2]. Market Information - In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3]. - China's macro - policies have effectively boosted consumption, production, and transformation and upgrading. The policy reserve is sufficient and can be adjusted according to the situation to support economic stability [3]. - Recently, imported soybeans have been arriving at ports intensively. As of the week ending June 13, the soybean crushing volume of domestic main oil mills was 2.26 million tons, up 10,000 tons week - on - week, 350,000 tons month - on - month, and 350,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected that the oil mills' operating rate will continue to rise, and the soybean crushing volume will be about 2.45 million tons this week [3]. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 were estimated to be 513,213 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - There are spread charts for contracts such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and live pigs 9 - 1 [5][6][8][9][13]. Contract Basis - There are basis charts for contracts such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][20][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262, and her email is wangn@ebfcn.com.cn [28]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637, and her email is houxl@ebfcn.com.cn [28]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has relevant experience and honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544, and her email is konghl@ebfcn.com.cn [28].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.49%至 9695 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.45%至 78450 | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，欧日纷纷表态，与美贸易谈判暂无取得 | | | | 较大进展。但相比贸易谈判，市场更加关注伊以冲突的进展，有报道称伊朗希望与美 | | | | 国和以色列对话，寻求结束敌对状态，只要美方不参与袭击，愿重返核问题谈判桌。 | | | | 对于铜的影响则在于市场风险偏好的变化。国内方面，5 月经济数据整体呈现"冷热 | | | | 不均"的格局。工业增加值表现尚可，社零增速明显提高，消费品以旧换新政策持续 | | | 铜 | 显效；房地产同比跌幅扩大，基建、制造业同比增速略有下降。库存方面，LME 库存 | | | | 下降 7150 吨至 107325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1193 吨至 17.9 万吨；SMM 周一统计全国 | | | | 精炼铜社会库存较上周四增加 0.29 万吨至 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On June 16, polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,320 yuan/ton, up 1.93% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon material also dropped to 35,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1,180 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated with a bullish bias. The main contract 2509 closed at 7,370 yuan/ton, up 0.41% intraday, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. Baichuan's reference price for industrial silicon spot remained stable at 8,636 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 245 yuan/ton. - As the cost centers of silicon coal and electrodes have declined and electricity price discounts in the southwest have been implemented, the resumption of production is progressing. Industrial silicon has ended its oversold correction and returned to a downward trend. For polysilicon, there are both production increases and decreases. Most manufacturers have significantly reduced production, while a small number of manufacturers in the southwest still have production increase plans. The crystal pulling end adopts a just-in-time procurement strategy and prefers low-quality mixed-pack silicon materials, with a firm attitude towards price reduction. The inventory turnover of crystalline silicon has extended to one and a half months. Under the heavy pressure of inventory reduction, the continuous price reduction trend is inevitable, and the spot premium is steadily converging. Due to a large number of enterprises delivering to the warehouse, the logic of long squeeze on the futures market has ended, and there is no longer any impetus for a rebound, so it continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research View - Polysilicon fluctuated with a bullish bias while industrial silicon also showed a similar trend on June 16. The cost decline and production resumption in industrial silicon have led to a return to the downward trend, and polysilicon is facing production adjustment and inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 115 yuan/ton to 7,280 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 23,640 lots to 323,000 lots. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 40 yuan to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1,097 to 56,823, and the total social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 428,800 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 625 yuan/ton to 34,320 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 61,698 lots. The prices of various grades of polysilicon spot remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 35,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 625 yuan to 1,180 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,600, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 26.6 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of other organic silicon products were mostly stable, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: Charts show the prices of industrial silicon of different grades, brand spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [11][15][17]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][31]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the field of non-ferrous metals research and have made significant contributions to the industry [36][37].