Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures prices showed a firm oscillation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1753 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase. Spot prices mostly rebounded slightly. Urea supply decreased significantly, with the daily output dropping to 18.40 thousand tons, a 0.49 thousand - ton decrease from the previous day. Demand improved but showed regional differences, with the sales - to - production ratio at around 20%. The market sentiment may fluctuate due to factors like exports and the Indian tender. The outlook is for a firm oscillation [2]. - Soda ash futures prices had a wide - range fluctuation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1311 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decrease. Spot prices were basically stable. This week, the production of multiple large soda ash plants decreased by 6.78%, and enterprise inventories decreased by 2.27%. Demand was average, with some improvement in low - price spot transactions. The supply pressure eased slightly, but there were no new positive factors. The short - term outlook is for oscillation, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern is not optimistic [2]. - Glass futures prices had a narrow - range fluctuation on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1174 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decrease. Spot prices were stable. Some glass factories intended to raise prices, but the implementation needed to be tracked. The daily melting volume was stable at 15.96 thousand tons, and there was an expectation of increased supply. Demand was cautious, with mid - and downstream buyers purchasing at low prices. The supply - demand contradiction was still not optimistic in the short term, and the short - term outlook is for low - level consolidation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 28, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6473, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 466 [5]. - On August 28, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.40 thousand tons, a 0.49 thousand - ton decrease from the previous day and a 1.18 thousand - ton increase from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 78.65%, a 0.57 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [5]. - On August 28, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions increased in most areas. For example, in Shandong, it was 1710 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 1720 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 27, the inventory of urea enterprises was 108.58 thousand tons, a 6.19 thousand - ton (6.05%) increase from the previous week [6]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 28, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6180, a decrease of 55 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1688. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2341, an increase of 242 from the previous day [8]. - On August 28, soda ash spot prices varied by region. For example, in North China, the light - alkali price was 1250 yuan/ton, and the heavy - alkali price was 1350 yuan/ton [8]. - As of the week of August 28, the production of soda ash was 71.90 thousand tons, a 5.23 thousand - ton (6.78%) decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 82.47%, a 6.01 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week [8]. - As of August 28, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 186.75 thousand tons, a 2.06 thousand - ton (1.09%) decrease from Monday and a 4.33 thousand - ton (2.27%) decrease from the previous Thursday [8]. - On August 28, the average price of the float glass market was 1151 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output was 15.96 thousand tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - As of August 28, the inventory of float glass enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a 1.04 million weight - box (1.63%) decrease from the previous week and an 11.31% decrease from the same period last year. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous week [9]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][13][25]. Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many awards [27]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures products such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [27]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of products such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market's main contradiction is high supply, weak - stable demand, and continuous inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. The short - term rebar futures may trade in a narrow range. [1] - The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. [1] - The coking coal and coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, affected by factors such as safety inspections, environmental restrictions, and demand changes. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures are expected to trade in a volatile manner in the short term, with relatively stable fundamentals and limited significant drivers. [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3129 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. National rebar production, social inventory, and apparent demand changed, with supply - demand data looking weak. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 2%. Port spot prices were strong. Supply and demand factors were mixed, with a slight drop in global shipments and a decline in iron - water production. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.82%. Spot prices showed a mixed trend. Supply was restricted by safety inspections, and demand faced short - term pressure. [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Port spot prices fell. Supply was constrained by regional restrictions, and demand from steel mills slowed. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened slightly, closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Production costs were stable, and supply - demand was relatively balanced. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened, closing at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. Spot prices in some regions dropped. Production was slightly down, and demand was still low. [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (e.g., 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) were provided, along with their latest values and changes. [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities was presented, including their latest values and changes. [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][9][10][11][14] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts displayed the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods. [16][17][20][22] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts presented the spreads of inter - period contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities. [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - commodity contracts (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities. [40][41][42][44] - **3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts depicted the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025. [45][46][49] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52]

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated August 29, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and spread analysis [1] 1. Futures Contracts - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 765.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 at 811.0 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan; I01 at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan [3] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread of I05 - I09 was -45.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan; I09 - I01 was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 25.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan [3] 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - **Price and Basis Changes**: Various iron ore varieties showed price and basis changes. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 12.0 yuan to 891 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 2 to 59 yuan/ton [6] 2.2 Basis Charts - **Charts Presented**: There are charts for different types of iron ore including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores, showing their basis trends [8][9] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - **Spread Changes**: For instance, the spread of PB lump - PB fines was 144.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; PB fines - mixed fines was 63.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan [13] 3.2 Variety Spread Charts - **Charts for Different Spreads**: There are charts for block - powder spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc., presenting the spread trends [14][15] 3.3 More Variety Spread Charts - **Additional Spread Charts**: Include charts for FMG mixed fines - Super Special fines spread, Carajás fines + Super Special fines - 2 * PB fines spread, etc. [20][21] 4. Exchange Rule Adjustments - **Adjustments to Deliverable Brands**: Added 4 deliverable brands (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) with brand premium of 0 since I2202 contract; adjusted brand premiums of existing varieties; modified substitute quality differences and quality premiums [11] - **Applicable Contracts**: The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to I2312 and subsequent contracts [12] 5. Research Team - **Team Members**: The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with rich experience in the steel and futures industries [24]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.9% to 67.28 cents per pound on Thursday, while CF601 fell 0.18% to 14,070 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1,889 lots to 510,700 lots. In the international market, attention should be paid to macro and weather changes, and the time for India to import cotton duty - free has been extended to December. In the US, the dollar index was weakly volatile, and the center of the US cotton futures price moved up. Domestically, the position of Zhengzhou cotton increased by nearly 60,000 lots last night. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have not changed much. As time passes, the market focus will shift to new cotton, with limited supply - demand contradictions and a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. After the new cotton is launched, there is a pressure of high - yield and support from the downstream "scrambling for purchase" expectation. It is expected that the short - term Zhengzhou cotton futures price will mainly run in a firm and volatile manner [2]. - Sugar: As of the week ending August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 72 from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 194,800 tons to 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 6.67%. Domestic spot prices continued to decline slightly, and the position of the futures main contract decreased for three consecutive trading days. The raw sugar futures price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is believed that the domestic futures price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should wait patiently for trading opportunities [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged from the previous day; the main basis was 1,266, down 1 from the previous day; the Xinjiang spot price was 15,240 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan per ton; the national spot price was 15,336 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan per ton [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 spread was 38, up 6 from the previous day; the main basis was 373, up 8 from the previous day; the Nanning spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On August 28, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,720, down 139 from the previous day, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,240 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,351 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,358 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,458 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 49.7, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 27.3, down 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 48.9, up 0.1 from the previous day; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.7, down 0.2 from the previous day [4]. - Sugar: On August 28, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,910 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,975 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,539, down 367 from the previous day, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipts of the main contracts, etc., but no specific analysis of the charts is given in the text [7][15]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for research on sugar, urea, soda ash glass, cotton, and other fields respectively, and have rich research experience and many honors [20][21][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper and domestic copper trended upward. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised to 3.3%, better than expected. A Fed official supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. China's urban renewal is expected to speed up. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season ends, downstream orders may pick up, and there are expectations of domestic enterprises restocking and inventory depletion, which could support copper prices, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina production resumption increased, but cost support strengthened, limiting deep declines. The inflow of aluminum ingots decreased and downstream stocking increased, and the inflection point of aluminum prices depends on the last week before September [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and SHFE nickel prices rose. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The fundamentals improved marginally, and the price may trend upward with low valuation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic data in the US was positive, and China's urban renewal policy may boost demand. Inventory changes varied in different markets. Seasonal factors and import window conditions may affect future inventory and price trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices declined, and aluminum products showed weak trends. Production resumption and cost factors influenced the market. The change in aluminum ingot inventory needs further observation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases were accompanied by inventory changes. The improvement in fundamentals was not significant, but the price may be strong in the short - term [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices, including those of flat - water copper, scrap copper, and downstream products, changed. Inventory levels in LME, COMEX, and social inventories also changed, along with other indicators such as premiums and import profits [4]. - **Lead**: Prices of lead products decreased slightly, and inventory levels in LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: Market prices of aluminum and its raw materials changed. Inventory levels in LME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and social inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: Prices of nickel products decreased, and inventory levels in LME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and social inventories changed [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased, and inventory levels in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME changed. Social inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly, and inventory levels in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME decreased [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premiums**: Charts showed the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads**: Charts presented the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][22] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts displayed the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts showed the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts presented the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - **3.6 Smelting Profits**: Charts showed the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 4. Non - research Content (Team Introduction) - The non - research part introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [50][51]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On August 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14% to close at 3,843.6 points with a trading volume of 1.265186 trillion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25% to close at 12,571.37 points with a trading volume of 1.705617 trillion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.51% with a trading volume of 631.712 billion yuan, opening at 7,331.19, closing at 7,447.11, reaching a high of 7,447.11 and a low of 7,216.77 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 2.17% with a trading volume of 563.652 billion yuan, opening at 6,858.5, closing at 7,011.16, reaching a high of 7,011.16 and a low of 6,798.93 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.45% with a trading volume of 195.215 billion yuan, opening at 2,918.53, closing at 2,960.73, reaching a high of 2,963.07 and a low of 2,906.65 [1]. 2. Sector Impact on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 110.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and communication significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 148.6 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and computer significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 42.35 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector significantly pulling the index up [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of -51.98, IM01 -105.75, IM02 -225.02, and IM03 -389.19 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of -33.72, IC01 -75.41, IC02 -168.85, and IC03 -300.35 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of -0.46, IF01 -7.38, IF02 -19.21, and IF03 -41.1 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.34, IH01 0.4, IH02 2.57, and IH03 4.97 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the rollover point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts at different time intervals [21][23][25][26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - On August 28, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,570 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.35%, and the position decreasing by 1,804 lots to 274,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped back to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 255 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.1%, and the position decreasing by 10,625 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 745 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rise in silicon coal prices. Silicon factories had a high volume of shipments to traders, while the downstream purchase volume was relatively low. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti - involution achieved basic control over the polysilicon price, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase under the production release in the southwest region. The industry clearance had not been actually promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand. The polysilicon spot price started to decline following the cooling of the downstream market sentiment [2]. - Short - term anti - involution - related dynamics still had a driving force on the short - term market, which might guide the correction of expectations and the decline range. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting at high levels. The relevant implementation rules for the energy - saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions promoted by policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The settlement price of the main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some silicon grades decreased, such as the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some 553 silicon also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 255 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The settlement price of the main polysilicon futures contract increased by 975 yuan/ton to 49,665 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 650 yuan/ton to 49,745 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type and P - type polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 650 yuan to 745 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon Spot Prices**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,709, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons to 255,245 tons, the inventory in some ports changed (e.g., Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons, and Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons), the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,400 tons to 267,300 tons, and the total industrial silicon social inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 439,800 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,880, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons to 196,200 tons, the polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total polysilicon social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts present the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the DMC weekly inventory and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25][30]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [31][33][35]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [38][39].

农产品日报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周，玉米主力 2511 合约增仓上行，期价小涨。周二，玉米 9 月合约领涨、11 | | | | 月合约跟涨。与上周相比，本周玉米现货报价表现疲软。东北玉米价格向新粮靠 | | | | 拢，目前以持续下调为主，市场对新季玉米的价格目前暂持谨慎之态，新季玉米 | | | | 干粮价格预估低于目前干粮价格。近期山东深加工企业玉米到货量有所增加，企 | | | | 业价格窄幅下调，昨日部分企业继续下跌，但下跌范围明显缩小。当前华北本地 | | | | 陈玉米和春玉米以及早期玉米、东北玉米共同供应市场，虽然陈粮库存少，但粮 | | | 玉米 | 源供应多样化。下游企业采购意愿较弱，控制采购节奏。销区市场玉米价格部分 | 震荡 | | | 港口下跌 10-20 元/吨，市场整体采购心态偏弱，饲料厂维持观望心态为主，港 | | | | 口走货速度偏慢，贸易商报价下调，短期市场需求难有较大回暖。技术上，11 | | | | 月合约成为主力合约，新粮上市的供应压力继续影响市场，玉米期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the studied energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillation" [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of oil prices is oscillating and rebounding, but the rhythm is still changeable. Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October. Russia's offline refining capacity reached a record high in August, and it extended the ban on refined oil exports [1]. - The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as sanctions, inventory changes, and supply and demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will continue, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened. The FU sentiment is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by factors such as rainfall, capital, and project construction. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of demand [2][3]. - The polyester market has improved demand expectations, but the cost - end crude oil price has declined. The PX and TA have large - scale accidental maintenance, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - The rubber market is supported by tire exports, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber follows the cost fluctuations [3][4]. - The methanol market has a short - term increase in port inventory, and the domestic supply will gradually recover. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The polyolefin market is gradually moving towards a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern [5]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has a stable increase in domestic demand, but the export will weaken. The production profit will be gradually compressed, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price center moved up. WTI October contract closed up $0.45 to $64.60 per barrel, a 0.7% increase. Brent October contract closed up $0.57 to $68.62 per barrel, an 0.84% increase. SC2510 closed at 486.6 yuan per barrel, up 5.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.14% increase. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.21%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2511 closed up 0.14%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.57%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.66%, EG2601 closed down 0.36%, and PX futures main contract closed down 0.78%. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 rose 185 yuan per ton, NR main contract rose 165 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 270 yuan per ton. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The polyvinyl chloride market is expected to oscillate [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in the past month [7]. 3.3 Market News - From August 22 - 28, the gasoline inventory in the Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp (ARA) center decreased from 104.5 tons to 99.1 tons, the fuel oil inventory increased from 104.6 tons to 104.9 tons, the diesel inventory increased from 203.2 tons to 208.5 tons, the aviation fuel inventory decreased from 94.6 tons to 91.9 tons, and the naphtha inventory increased from 55.2 tons to 58.4 tons [9]. - Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October, with the flagship Arab Light crude oil's official selling price possibly being lowered by 40 - 70 cents per barrel [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21][22] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27][31][33][35][37] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [38][39][41][44][47][49][52][55] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [56][57][60][61][62] - **Production Profit**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some energy and chemical products [63][65][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related analysts Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market benefited from the dovish stance of the Fed meeting and the expectation of multiple interest rate cuts within the year. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system also contributed to the market's rise. The liquidity-driven market is expected to continue, with funds concentrating on index components and technology stocks, and short-term volatility may increase [1] - The bond market rebounded due to the dovish remarks of the Fed Chair and the expectation of domestic monetary policy easing. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short-term negative factor for the bond market, and treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a high-range sideways pattern [2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures on August 29, 2025, IH rose 1.36% (from 2,920.2 to 2,959.8), IF rose 1.74% (from 4,384.0 to 4,460.4), IC rose 1.89% (from 6,837.8 to 6,967.0), and IM rose 1.04% (from 7,287.2 to 7,363.2) [3] - For stock indices on August 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.45% (from 2,918.4 to 2,960.7), the CSI 300 rose 1.77% (from 4,386.1 to 4,463.8), the CSI 500 rose 2.17% (from 6,862.6 to 7,011.2), and the CSI 1000 rose 1.51% (from 7,336.5 to 7,447.1) [3] - For treasury bond futures on August 29, 2025, TS fell 0.04% (from 102.41 to 102.37), TF fell 0.12% (from 105.59 to 105.46), T fell 0.21% (from 108.02 to 107.80), and TL fell 0.80% (from 117.40 to 116.46) [3] Group 4: Market News - Starting from August 29, 2025, the State Council Tariff Commission decided to continue imposing anti-dumping duties on imported phenol from the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand for a period of 5 years [4] Group 5: Chart Analysis 5.1 Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC futures contracts, as well as their respective basis trends [6][7][10] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][16][18] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the Chinese yuan, as well as the dollar index and euro - dollar exchange rate [21][25][28] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings analysis, and market funding tracking [29]