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《金融》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views No explicit core views are presented in the given reports. The reports mainly offer daily data on various financial products, including price differences, price changes, and related percentile information. 3. Summary by Category **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Futures - Spot Price Differences**: The IF futures - spot price difference was -20.28, up 2.41; the IH was 5.40, up 5.34; the IC was -133.12, down 11.15; and the IM was -198.45, down 29.69 [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: Different inter - delivery spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM showed various changes, such as the IF's "next month - current month" being -9.60, up 1.80 [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/SSE 300 were 1.6029, up 0.0057; IC/IF was 1.2812, up 0.0028, etc. [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Basis**: The TS basis was -0.0385, down 0.0013; the TF was -0.0580, up 0.0173; the T was 0.0310, down 0.1644; and the TL was 0.2382, down 0.0815 [3]. - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For example, the TS "current quarter - next quarter" inter - delivery spread was 0.0980, up 0.0120 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The TS - TF spread was -3.3360, down 0.0780; the TS - T was -5.6510, down 0.1780, etc. [3]. **Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2512 contract closed at 914.32, up 47.80; the AG2512 was 11169, up 230 [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold main contract was 3991.10, down 69.50; the COMEX silver main contract was 47.66, down 0.78 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was 3975.95, down 64.47; London silver was 49.21, up 0.35, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was -2.94, up 1.08; the silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 7, up 68 [4]. - **Ratios, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventories, and Positions**: Ratios like COMEX gold/silver were 83.75, down 0.08; 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.14, up 0.01; the US dollar index was 99.40, up 0.56; etc. [4]. **Container Shipping Index Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Settlement Price Index**: The SCFIS (European route) was 1046.50, down 74.0; the SCFIS (US West route) was 876.82, down 44.4 [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: For example, the EC2602 contract was 1406.0, down 236.8; the basis (main contract) was -231.0, up 117.8 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container shipping capacity supply was 3320.03, unchanged; Shanghai port on - time rate was 18.31, down 14.27; etc. [7]. **Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week reference freight was 1835, down 23; CMA CGM was 2501, up 254 [9]. **Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Change Daily Report** No clear and analyzable content is provided in the given document.
《农产品》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:29
生猪产业期现日报 数据来源: Wind、涌益咨询、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告库端免责声明 免贡声胆 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可乖的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作日何保证。本报 告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法,并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下,报告内容仅供参考,报告中 的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据比投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其 他专业人士,版权归广发期货所有,未经广发明货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布,爱制。如引用、刊发,需注 明出处为"广发期货"。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 -375 | 前值 વેર | 涨跌 -470 | 涨跌幅 -494.74% | 单位 | | 主力合约基差 生猪2511 | 11595 | 12352 | -760 | -6.15% | ...
《有色》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].
《能源化工》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:11
Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views - **Polyolefins**: PE's current maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up is gradually recovering. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. The pre - holiday CP settlement price has decreased, and the profit of PDH units has recovered. Attention should be paid to the return of PP units. In terms of demand, there are no bright spots, and there is significant inventory pressure after the holiday. Coupled with new capacity investment, the pressure of inventory accumulation in 01 is large, which limits the upside space [2]. - **Methanol**: The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports". The port arrival volume remains consistently high, the inventory accumulation is significant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a downward price trend. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although the number of unplanned maintenance units has increased recently, some units are expected to resume production in early October. The inventory pattern in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. In terms of valuation, the overall is in a neutral state. The current futures market is in a game situation, and future focus should be on the emergence of the inventory inflection point [5]. - **Polyester Industry Chain** - **PX**: The domestic PX load remains at a high level. The PTA processing fee is continuously low, new PTA device production is delayed, and multiple PTA units have maintenance plans. The PX supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. In the short term, PX has weak self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply is expected to shrink. The short - term downstream start - up remains at a relatively high level, and the PTA basis has been repaired, but the rebound space is limited under the weak expectation. In the short term, PTA has limited self - driving force, and the oil price support is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the National Day holiday, the port inventory has increased significantly. The domestic supply remains at a high level, and the supply - demand is gradually weakening. Therefore, the price of ethylene glycol is under pressure [8]. - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory pressure after the holiday is not significant. It is expected that the short - term support for short fibers is stronger than that of raw materials, but the driving force is limited, and the price will mainly follow the raw materials [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In October, there is no news of further production cuts for bottle chips. The demand in the fourth quarter is in the traditional off - season. The demand side has limited support for bottle chips. It is expected that bottle chips will enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the price will mainly follow the cost side [8]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand growth has great uncertainty, with limited support. The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand side support may be limited. The supply - demand of styrene is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure after the holiday [9]. - **PVC - Caustic Soda** - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term demand for caustic soda lacks support and tends to be weak, and it can be treated bearishly in the short term. However, there is demand support in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm [10]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand in the peak season is not strong. The cost side provides bottom support. It is expected that the downside space of PVC is limited during the peak season, and attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased, with declines of - 1.06%, - 0.86%, - 1.56%, and - 1.06% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased, with increases of 20.90% and 121.43% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LLDPE film decreased, with declines of - 1.04% and - 0.99% respectively [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 1.85% to 81.8%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 2.82% to 44.1%. The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 16.50% to 38.3 (in appropriate units), and the social inventory decreased by 1.93% to 52.5 million tons. The PP device start - up rate increased by 1.4% to 76.6%, the powder start - up rate increased by 4.3% to 35.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.7% to 61.5. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.50% to 52.0, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.58% to 18.7 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.63% and - 0.68% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 64.71%, and the Taicang basis increased by 9.24%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang decreased, with declines of - 0.36%, - 2.22%, and - 1.23% respectively [5]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94%, the port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3%. The start - up rates of Shanghai - domestic enterprises and Shanghai - overseas enterprises increased by 2.22% and 0.63% respectively. The northwest enterprise sales - production ratio increased by 9.60%, the downstream - external MTO device start - up rate increased by 4.63%, the downstream - formaldehyde start - up rate decreased by 7.22%, the downstream - acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 0.97%, and the downstream - MTBE start - up rate decreased by 0.59% [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price Changes**: From October 8th to 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (December) and WTI crude oil (November) decreased, with declines of - 1.6% and - 1.7% respectively. The price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged, and the price of CFR China MX increased by 0.4%. The prices of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR China PX remained unchanged [8]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips decreased, with declines of - 0.8%, - 0.5%, - 0.6%, and - 0.8% respectively. The cash - flows of POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased, with declines of - 7.9% and - 5.3% respectively. The cash - flow of DTY150/48 increased by 275.0%, and the polyester chip cash - flow increased by 20.3%. The bottle chip processing fee increased by 0.2%, and the bottle chip basis decreased by 70.0% [8]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The MEG port inventory increased by 24.0% to 50.7 million tons, and the arrival expectation decreased by 65.8% to 8.0 million tons. The Asian PX start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 78.0%, the Chinese PX start - up rate increased by 0.5% to 86.7%, the PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.8%, the MEG comprehensive start - up rate decreased by 2.4% to 73.1%, the coal - based MEG start - up rate decreased by 6.3% to 74.4%, the direct - spinning filament start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 93.5%, the polyester bottle chip start - up rate decreased by 5.8% to 67.8%, the pure - polyester yarn start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 64.2%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate increased by 3.8% to 81%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate increased by 6.1% to 70%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang printing start - up rate increased by 5.6% to 76% [8]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of Brent crude oil (November), WTI crude oil (October), CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene decreased, with declines of - 2.7%, - 1.4%, - 1.3%, and - 0.6% respectively. The price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%, the pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 2.2%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread increased by 1.3% [9]. - **Styrene - related Price and Cash - flow Changes**: The price of styrene in East China remained unchanged. The prices of EB2510 and EB2511 decreased, with declines of - 0.2% and - 0.2% respectively. The EB basis (10) increased by 12.5%, the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 5.0%, the non - integrated EB cash - flow increased by 11.3%, and the integrated EB cash - flow increased by 13.6%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 1.9%, and the EB10 - BZ03 spread increased by 2.7% [9]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.2% to 9.10 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 2.2% to 20.19 million tons. The Asian pure benzene start - up rate remained unchanged at 79.0%, the domestic pure benzene start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 79.3%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 6.8% to 64.0%, the benzene production start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 78.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 5.7% to 93.8%, the benzene - related start - up rate increased by 4.0% to 74.9%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.2%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 3.4% to 59.1%, the downstream EPS start - up rate decreased by 10.5% to 55.3%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 70.0% [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: From September 30th to October 9th, the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC decreased, with declines of - 1.3% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of SHS209 and SH2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.8% and - 3.2% respectively. The SH basis increased by - 33.1%, and the SH2509 - 2601 spread increased by 28.9%. The prices of V2509 and V2601 decreased, with declines of - 1.0% and - 1.4% respectively. The V basis decreased by - 0.8%, and the V2509 - V2601 spread increased by 3.3% [10]. - **Export and Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports remained unchanged, and the export profit decreased by 26.3%. The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port increased by 0.8%, and the export profit increased by 323.8% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry start - up rate increased by 1.6% to 86.8%, the Shandong sample start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 85.6%, the PVC total start - up rate increased by 0.9% to 76.1%, the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 11.2% to - 896.0 yuan/ton, and the northwest integrated profit decreased by 68.9% to 43.3 yuan/ton. The alumina industry start - up rate remained unchanged at 83.7%, the viscose staple fiber industry start - up rate increased by 0.3% to 89.8%, the printing and dyeing industry start - up rate increased by 0.6% to 66.2%. The Longzhong sample profile start - up rate increased by 3.3% to 40.4, the Longzhong sample profile start - up rate decreased by 1.3% to 38.0, and the Longzhong sample PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% to 75.9 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased by 14.2% to 19.7 million tons, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 9.9% to 11.1 million tons, the PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 3.9% to 31.8 million tons, and the PVC total social inventory remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [10].
全品种价差日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:10
Report Overview - **Report Date**: October 10, 2025 [2] - **Data Sources**: Wind, MySteel, GF Futures Research Institute [2] Commodity Market Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price is 5950, futures price is 5768, basis is 182, basis rate is 4.65%, and historical quantile is 62.00% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price is 3096 [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price is 3350, futures price is 3286, basis rate is 1.95%, and historical quantile is 45.30% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price (converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder) is 839, futures price is 791, basis is 49, basis rate is 6.20%, and historical quantile is 41.20% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price (converted price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke) is 1654, futures price is 1613, basis is - 41, basis rate is - 2.46%, and historical quantile is 40.37% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price (converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal) is 1164, futures price is 1160, basis is - 4, basis rate is - 0.34%, and historical quantile is 22.30% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price) is 86750, futures price is 85740, basis is - 1010, basis rate is - 1.16%, and historical quantile is 2.29% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Spot price (SMM A00 aluminum average price) is 20960, futures price is 21090, basis is - 130, basis rate is - 0.62%, and historical quantile is 15.62% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price is 2968, futures price is 2875, basis rate is 3.23%, and historical quantile is 53.30% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 zinc ingot average price) is 22315, futures price is 22070, basis is - 245, basis rate is - 1.10%, and historical quantile is 7.08% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 tin average price) is 287090, futures price is 284200, basis is - 2890, basis rate is - 1.01%, and historical quantile is 6.04% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: Spot price (SMM 1 imported nickel average price) is 124480, futures price is 122800, basis is 1680, basis rate is 1.35%, and historical quantile is 5.20% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Spot price is 13320, futures price is 12860, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.58%, and historical quantile is 87.12% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price (SMM annual average price of oxygen - containing 215530) is 9450, futures price is 8640, basis is 810, basis rate is 9.38%, and historical quantile is 55.61% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D)) is 914.3, futures price is 911.4, basis is - 2.9, basis rate is - 0.32%, and historical quantile is 22.50% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: Spot price (Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D)) is 11169.0, futures price is 11176.0, basis is 7.0, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 92.70% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang ex - factory price of ordinary protein soybean meal) is 2939.0, futures price is 2910, basis is - 29.0, basis rate is - 0.99%, and historical quantile is 30.70% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang ex - factory price of grade four soybean oil) is 8480, futures price is 8332.0, basis is 148.0, basis rate is 1.78%, and historical quantile is 29.80% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price (Delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port) is 9570.0, futures price is 9480, basis is - 90.0, basis rate is - 0.94%, and historical quantile is 5.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price (Guangdong Zhanjiang ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal) is 2540, futures price is 2435.0, basis is 105.0, basis rate is 4.31%, and historical quantile is 65.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Spot price (Jiangsu Nantong ex - factory price of grade four rapeseed oil) is 10480, futures price is 10248.0, basis is 232.0, basis rate is 2.26%, and historical quantile is 75.00% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Spot price (FAS price of corn at Jinzhou Port) is 2180, futures price is 2138.0, basis is 42.0, basis rate is 1.96%, and historical quantile is 62.60% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price (Jilin Changchun ex - factory price of corn starch) is 2560, futures price is 2430.0, basis is 130.0, basis rate is 5.35%, and historical quantile is 65.70% [1] - **Live Hogs (H2511)**: Spot price (Henan ex - factory price of live hogs (external ternary)) is 11595.0, futures price is 11220, basis is 375.0, basis rate is 3.23%, and historical quantile is 31.70% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price (Average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei) is 3000, futures price is 2871.0, basis is 129.0, basis rate is 4.49%, and historical quantile is 42.50% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price (Xinjiang arrival price of cotton 3128B) is 14755, futures price is 13295.0, basis is 1460.0, basis rate is 10.98%, and historical quantile is 93.10% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price (Spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station) is 5870, futures price is 5528.0, basis is 342.0, basis rate is 6.19%, and historical quantile is 58.70% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price (Delivery theoretical price of apples) is 8633.0, futures price is 8600, basis is - 33.0, basis rate is - 0.38%, and historical quantile is 15.20% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price (Wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei) is 10960.0, futures price is 9500, basis is - 1460.0, basis rate is - 13.32%, and historical quantile is 32.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX511)**: Spot price (CFR spot price at Chinese main ports, converted to RMB) is 6613.5, futures price is 6586.0, basis is 27.5, basis rate is 0.42%, and historical quantile is 31.90% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price (Market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China) is 4584.0, futures price is 4510.0, basis is - 74.0, basis rate is - 1.61%, and historical quantile is 25.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price (Market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China) is 4230.0, futures price is 4158.0, basis is 72.0, basis rate is 1.73%, and historical quantile is 84.30% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm (direct - spun)) in East China market) is 6405.0, futures price is 6292.0, basis is 113.0, basis rate is 1.80%, and historical quantile is 71.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price (Market price in East China, China (spot benchmark price)) is 6818.0, futures price is 6790.0, basis is - 28.0, basis rate is - 0.41%, and historical quantile is 21.50% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price (Market price in Jiangsu Taicang, China (spot benchmark price)) is 2290.0, futures price is 2212.5, basis is 77.5, basis rate is 3.38%, and historical quantile is 19.30% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of urea (small particles) in Shandong) is 1609.0, futures price is 1570.0, basis is - 39.0, basis rate is - 2.42%, and historical quantile is 5.30% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price (Duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong) is 7203.0, futures price is 7077.0, basis is 126.0, basis rate is 1.78%, and historical quantile is 57.50% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price (Duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang) is 6745.0, futures price is 6733.0, basis is - 12.0, basis rate is - 0.18%, and historical quantile is 21.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) in Changzhou market, China) is 4769.0, futures price is 4640.0, basis is - 129.0, basis rate is - 2.70%, and historical quantile is 45.50% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong market, converted to 100%) is 2500.0, futures price is 2450.0, basis is 50, basis rate is 2.04%, and historical quantile is 56.50% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Spot price (Market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou) is 4548.0, futures price is 4072.0, basis is 476.0, basis rate is 11.69%, and historical quantile is 65.20% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Spot price (Market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong) is 3490.0, futures price is 3375.0, basis is 115.0, basis rate is 3.41%, and historical quantile is 75.00% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Spot price (Distribution price in East China, China) is 11500.0, futures price is 11325.0, basis is 175.0, basis rate is 1.55%, and historical quantile is 47.20% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price (Market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, Shahe Great Wall Glass) is 1218.0, futures price is 1128.0, basis is - 90.0, basis rate is - 7.98%, and historical quantile is 39.83% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price (Market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe) is 1250.0, futures price is 1170.0, basis is - 80.0, basis rate is - 6.84%, and historical quantile is 14.04% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price (Market price in Shanghai of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole - latex)) is 15415.0, futures price is 14650.0, basis is - 765.0, basis rate is - 5.22%, and historical quantile is 48.54% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price is 4689.2, futures price is 4709.5, basis is - 20.3, basis rate is - 0.43%, and historical quantile is 22.30% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price is 3026.0, futures price is 3020.6, basis is 5.4, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 85.30% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7548.9, futures price is 7415.8, basis is - 133.1, basis rate is - 1.80%, and historical quantile is 0.60% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price is 7648.1, futures price is 7449.6, basis is - 198.5, basis rate is - 2.66%, and historical quantile is 3.70% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2512**: Spot price is 102.41, futures price is 99.96, basis is - 0.
《黑色》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:06
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - During the holiday, steel prices were stable, and rebounded slightly after the holiday. Steel production decreased slightly, and inventory increased significantly due to stagnant demand. The supply - demand gap narrowed at the end of September. In October after the holiday, demand is expected to recover seasonally, and inventory is expected to decline seasonally. The steel export volume remained high on the 6th, and short - term supply and demand are basically balanced with little inventory pressure. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in January contracts should focus on the support levels of 3050 and 3200 respectively. Unilateral trading has no obvious driver. For arbitrage, reverse spreads on monthly differentials should be considered when they are high, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar should converge [3]. Iron Ore Industry - On the first trading day after the holiday, iron ore prices fluctuated and rose, mainly due to the peak - season expectation in October, high iron - making water production, and concerns about Australian ore supply. There are many disturbances on the supply side, but the overseas iron ore swap prices follow the domestic trend. Iron ore has the driving force to rebound, but the upward space depends on steel prices to give steel mills profits. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival volume of BHP shipments [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - After the holiday, coke and coking coal futures rebounded from the bottom, showing a divergence between futures and spot prices. The coke market is expected to have another round of price increases, but may face downward pressure due to falling steel prices and compressed steel mill profits. The coking coal market is expected to be weak, but futures have advanced the rebound expectation due to supply - side disturbances. For trading strategies, long positions can be taken at low prices for coking coal 2601, reverse spreads can be considered for coke 1 - 5, and out - of - the - money call options for coke 2601 can be bought at low prices [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3240, 3210, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China are 3350, 3290, and 3320 yuan/ton respectively [2][4]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coil in East, North, and South China are 66, 16, and 46 yuan/ton respectively, down 30, 20, and 20 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The daily average iron - making water production is 241.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.1%); the production of five major steel products is 863.3 tons, down 3.8 tons (- 0.4%); the rebar production is 203.4 tons, down 3.6 tons (- 1.7%) [3]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1600.7 tons, up 127.9 tons (8.7%); the rebar inventory is 659.6 tons, up 57.4 tons (9.5%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 412.9 tons, up 32.3 tons (8.5%) [3]. Demand - The building materials trading volume is 12.0 tons, up 3.9 tons (49.0%); the apparent demand for five major steel products is 751.4 tons, down 153.4 tons (- 17.0%) [3]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of different types of iron ore at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with an increase of about 0.7% - 0.8%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 7.9%, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.1% [5]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume is 2608.7 tons, up 248.2 tons (10.5%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3279.0 tons, down 196.4 tons (- 5.7%); the national monthly import volume is 10522.5 tons, up 61.5 tons (0.6%) [5]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 241.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.1%); the weekly average daily 45 - port ore - unloading volume is 0.0 tons, down 336.4 tons (- 100.0%); the national monthly pig - iron production is 6979.3 tons, down 100.5 tons (- 1.4%); the national monthly crude - steel production is 7736.9 tons, down 229.0 tons (- 2.9%) [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.2% week - on - week; the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1%; the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 16.0% [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 3.4%, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 2.7%. The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts in January and May increased. The coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased by 7.4% [9]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The weekly production of raw coal in Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 3.6%, and the production of clean coal products decreased by 4.4% [9]. Demand - The weekly iron - making water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged, while that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% [9]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.5%, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.9%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 14.5%, while that of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased [9]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly by 3.2% [9].
股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It shows the changes in total positions and the significant changes in the top 20 seats for each variety on October 9, 2025 [1][4][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - Total position significantly increased, with the total position rising by 14,919 hands on October 9, and the position of the main contract IF2509 rising by 9,505 hands [1][4]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,849 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 3,816 hands, while Yide Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 1,802 hands [5]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,705 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 2,754 hands, while Zhongtai Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 204 hands [7]. IH (SSE 50) - Total position clearly increased, with the total position rising by 4,378 hands on October 9, and the position of the main contract IH2509 rising by 3,375 hands [1][10]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,325 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,309 hands, while Galaxy Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 592 hands [10]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 17,167 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,377 hands, while Huatai Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 777 hands [11]. IC (CSI 500) - Total position significantly increased, with the total position rising by 21,599 hands on October 9, and the position of the main contract IC2509 rising by 12,048 hands [1][15]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,502 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 3,649 hands, while COFCO Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 142 hands [16]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,852 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 4,101 hands, while COFCO Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 286 hands [18]. IM (CSI 1000) - Total position slightly increased, with the total position rising by 1,437 hands on October 9, and the position of the main contract IM2509 decreasing by 1,361 hands [1][21]. - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 50,829 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,104 hands, and Huatai Futures was the only seat with a long - position decrease, reducing 1,078 hands [21][23]. - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 73,745 hands. Dongzheng Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,123 hands, while Guotou Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 382 hands [21].
油脂异动点评:MPOB报告或显示9月马来西亚棕榈油库存回落,盘面于节后补涨
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 10:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market rose significantly, with the P2601 contract closing up 4.13% at 9570 points, hitting an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. - The fundamental situation shows a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. Malaysian palm oil inventory in September may decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production [2]. - The aggressive B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports, and rising crude oil prices increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is crucial. If the MPOB report in September meets market expectations, with an early production inflection point and a decline in inventory, the post - market trend of palm oil needs to be re - evaluated. In the fourth quarter, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market had a significant increase. The P2601 contract of palm oil closed up 4.13% at 9570 points, with an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: Multiple surveys show a decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. The industry survey estimates production at 179.4 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease. MPOA estimates production at 181 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate production at 179 million tons and 178 million tons respectively, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease [2]. - **Exports**: The industry survey estimates exports at 142.7 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase. Reuters and Bloomberg both estimate exports at 143 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: Different institutions have different estimates of consumption. The industry survey estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 23.5% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 24.5% month - on - month increase. Bloomberg estimates consumption at 48.5 million tons, a 32.9% month - on - month increase [2][5]. - **Inventory**: The industry survey estimates that inventory will drop to 214.6 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate inventory at 215 million tons and 216 million tons respectively [2]. 3.3 Biodiesel Policy Impact - **Indonesia**: Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program next year. Using B50 biodiesel requires 2010 thousand liters of palm oil to be mixed with diesel annually, compared to 1560 thousand liters for B40 biodiesel. This may reduce Indonesia's palm oil exports [6]. - **Brazil**: The plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may be postponed due to incomplete technical feasibility studies. This will mainly affect the biodiesel industry using soybean oil as a raw material [7]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the incremental demand for biodiesel supports the market performance. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is more important. If the MPOB report in September meets expectations, with a decline in production and inventory, and as the market enters the traditional seasonal production - reduction period and demand fades, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern in the fourth quarter [9].
生猪异动点评:双节出栏激增,现货承压
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 09:23
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - After the double festivals, the hog futures market declined significantly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 11,595 yuan/ton, a drop of 5.88% [1]. - In the short - term, the pressure from the double - festival hog sales will gradually ease, and prices are expected to stabilize as the supply pressure from individual farmers decreases. However, in the medium - to - long - term, hog supply pressure will continue to be released, and hog prices are not optimistic. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time to show results, and spot prices are expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies in the futures market and conduct reverse spreads for LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 [7]. 3) Summary by Directory Driving Factor 1: Increased Hog Sales during Double Festivals and Released Supply Pressure - Before the double festivals, due to high expectations for demand, individual farmers and secondary fattening households held back hogs. By the end of September, the average hog slaughter weight reached a record high for the same period. As of the week of September 25, the average slaughter weight was 128.55 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.87 kg (2.28%). Group - farmed hogs had an average weight of 123.99 kg, while individual - farmed hogs reached 143.92 kg. After the festivals, with weakening demand, individual farmers panicked and sold more heavy hogs, leading to a sharp increase in supply and downward pressure on spot prices [2]. Driving Factor 2: Continuous Recovery of Hog Supply and Pessimistic Market Outlook - China currently has an oversupply of breeding sows, with rapidly improving production efficiency. However, the process of reducing the sow population is slow, and hog sales are expected to keep growing in the next six months. As of the end of August, the national breeding sow population was 40.38 million, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal level, indicating a slow capacity reduction. The government aims to reduce the capacity by 1 million, but due to low industry costs and previous long - term profitability, the amount of culled sows is small, and capacity reduction is difficult without strict policies [6]. Market Outlook - During the National Day holiday, hog prices dropped sharply, with spot prices falling below 6 yuan/jin. Individual farmers increased sales, but weak demand continued to suppress prices. In the short - term, prices are expected to stabilize as the supply pressure eases. In the medium - to - long - term, supply pressure will persist in the fourth quarter, and hog prices are not expected to improve. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time, and spot prices are likely to face pressure until the first half of next year [7].
异动点评:商品及金融属性共振,铜价大涨
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 08:11
异动点评:商品及金融属性共振,铜价大涨 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292 号 周敏波 投资咨询: Z0010559 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 今日行情: 国庆后第一个交易日,沪铜高开大涨,盘中最高触及 87000 元/吨,截至今日收盘,主力 CU2511 合约报 86750 元/吨,涨幅 4.19%。 驱动因素 1:铜矿供应收紧担忧 2025 年 9 月,自由港麦克莫兰(Freeport-McMoRan)公司旗下的印尼 Grasberg 矿区超预期停产, 引发市场对全球铜供应收紧的担忧。自由港公司表示 Grasberg 矿区 2025 年第四季度产量骤减约 20 万 吨(约占全球矿端供给 0.9%),2026 年产量或减少 27 万吨铜(约占全球矿端供给 1.2%)。当前全球铜 矿供应呈现显著的刚性特征与脆弱性,除上述 Grasberg 铜矿停产事件外,2025 年年内已出现多起大 型铜矿供给扰动事项:5 月艾芬豪矿业公司旗下 Kamoa-Kakula 铜矿因地震活动中断采矿作业,7 月嘉 能可公司旗下 El Teniente 矿区因地震活动暂停地下作业,矿端扰动进一步加剧了全球铜供 ...