自糖产业期现日报 反期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月10日 刘珂 Z0016336 | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖2601 | રકેતી ર | રકેવા | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 白糖2509 | 5734 | 5735 | -1 | -0.02% | | | ICE原糖主力 | 16.70 | 16.51 | 0.19 | 1.15% | 美分/磅 | | 白糖1-9价差 | -144 | -145 | 1 | 0.69% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 341231 | 342408 | -1177 | -0.34% | 글 | | 仓单数量 | 29443 | 29443 | O | 0.00% | ड़ॉर्स | | 有效预报 | 0 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | | | 现货市场价格 | | | | | | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 南宁 | 6080 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to macro - factors such as a weaker US dollar and optimistic sentiment from US - China trade negotiations. OPEC + production increased in May, but less than planned. The market is in a strong - side shock trend, suggesting a short - term long - bias approach. Resistance levels are given for WTI, Brent, and SC. Options can use a straddle structure [2]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply has increased, but short - term downside is limited due to downstream demand and geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term observation, 9 - 1 short - spread, and narrowing the PX - SC spread. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, but there is support at low levels. Strategies are to focus on the 4600 support and use a short - on - rebound approach, and 9 - 1 short - spread. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply is expected to remain low in June, with good supply - demand structure but limited upside due to weak demand. It is expected to trade in a range, and look for 9 - 1 long - spread opportunities. - Short - fiber: Processing fee recovery is limited, and absolute price follows raw materials. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at low levels. - Bottle - chip: Supply - demand is expected to improve in June, and the processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA and expanding the processing fee at the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: Recent decline is due to cost reduction. Supply has increased overall, but decreased in Shandong. Demand is supported by alumina. Inventory is accumulating in East China. Hold the 7 - 9 long - spread before price cuts or large - scale warehouse - receipt outflows. - PVC: Short - term is in a shock trend, but long - term supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure will increase in June, and demand is weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy [11][16]. Styrene Industry - Short - term styrene may fluctuate, and mid - term pay attention to the bearish opportunity from raw material resonance. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventory has decreased slightly, but supply may increase after plant restart [19][22]. PE and PP Industry - PE: Inventory is accumulating at the beginning of the month, with slight destocking in social inventory. Supply and demand are balanced in June, with limited up - and - down drivers. - PP: New capacity will be put into operation in June - July, and demand is in the off - season. There is a large inventory - accumulation pressure. Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [26][27]. Urea Industry - High supply is not matched by demand. Agricultural demand has slightly improved but lacks activity, and industrial demand is weakened by the decline in compound fertilizer production. Future trends depend on export policy and market sentiment. [33] Methanol Industry - Supply is abundant with high domestic production and expected high imports. Demand has increased in MTO but with poor downstream profits. Price should be traded in the 2200 - 2350 range, and pay attention to the transition from implicit to explicit inventory accumulation [35]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose to $67.04/barrel, WTI to $65.35/barrel, and SC to 479.30 yuan/barrel on June 10. Various spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [2]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices changed, and their spreads and cracking spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. decreased, and cash flows of some products also declined [6]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX price decreased, and various PX spreads changed [6]. - **PTA - related**: PTA prices decreased, and its spreads and basis also changed [6]. - **MEG**: Port inventory increased, and to - port expectations changed. Supply and demand are expected to be good in June [6]. - **Industry开工率**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of Shandong caustic soda and East China PVC remained stable or changed slightly, and futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations [11]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC remained stable, but export profits changed [12][13]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed, with PVC operating rate increasing and some profit margins improving [14]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC pre - sales volume increased [15][16]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some accumulating and some remaining stable [16]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of Brent crude, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China pure benzene increased [19]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and basis and month - spreads changed [20]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene increased, and import profits decreased [21]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: Operating rates of some industries in the styrene chain changed, and profits of some products improved significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports and downstream products changed [22]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of PE and PP changed slightly, and their spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [26]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of PE and PP enterprises and social inventories increased [26]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [26]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and upstream raw material prices remained stable. Spot prices in different regions decreased [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. Agricultural and industrial demands were weak [33]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed, and various spreads and basis also changed [35]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories increased [35]. - **Operating Rates**: Operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [35].

知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月10日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 6月9日 | 6月6日 | 活快 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会到 胶(SCRWF)：下海 | 13650 | 13750 | -100 | -0.73% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -75 | 100 | -175 | -175.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13500 | 13600 | -100 | -0.74% | | | 非标价差 | -225 | -50 | -175 | -350.00% | | | 品种 | e a a fi | 6月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 45.20 | 44.90 | 0.30 | 0.67% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. Each variety shows different trends in total positions and changes in the important positions of the top 20 seats [1] Summary by Directory IF (CSI 300) - On June 9, the total position of the IF variety increased by 15,151 lots, with the position of the main contract 2506 rising by 8,593 lots [5] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,479 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 3,139 lots, while Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 469 lots [6] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,956 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 2,421 lots, while Huatai Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 298 lots [8] IH (SSE 50) - On June 9, the total position of the IH variety increased by 5,976 lots, with the position of the main contract 2506 rising by 2,695 lots [11] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,056 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,990 lots, while Everbright Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 142 lots [12] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,752 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 2,023 lots, while Guotou Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 297 lots [13] IC (CSI 500) - On June 9, the total position of the IC variety increased by 12,736 lots, with the position of the main contract 2506 rising by 4,877 lots [17] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 34,133 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,900 lots, while JPMorgan Chase had the most long - position decrease, reducing 568 lots [18] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,691 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 2,758 lots, while CICC Wealth had the most short - position decrease, reducing 515 lots [19] IM (CSI 1000) - On June 9, the total position of the IM variety increased by 9,941 lots, with the position of the main contract 2506 rising by 1,955 lots [23] - Among the top 20 long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,551 lots. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,958 lots, while Yide Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 712 lots [23] - Among the top 20 short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 57,200 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,806 lots, while Huatai Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 337 lots [24]

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

快速开户 微信公众号 铁矿石期货周报 铁 水 韧 性 维 持 ， 盘 面 宽 幅 震 荡 徐艺丹 投资咨询资格：Z0020017 期货从业资格：F03125507 联系方式：020-88818017 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 短期观点 品种 主要观点 本周操作建议 上周操作建议 供应：本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运+242.3万吨至3431万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2868.8万吨，环比增加 78.8万吨。澳洲发运量1920.5万吨，环比减少92.7万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1499.8万吨，环比减少281.4万吨。巴西发运 量948.3万吨，环比增加171.5万吨。45港口到港量2536.5万吨，环比增加385.2万吨。 需求：日均铁水产量241.8万吨，环比-0.11万吨；高炉开工率83.56%，环比-0.31%；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.65%，环比 -0.04个百分点；钢厂盈利率58.87%，环比持平。 铁矿石（I） 库存：截至5月22日，45港库存13987.83万吨，环比-178.26万吨；周内钢厂多为常规检修，日均疏港量维持高位，但以 转水为主，库存降幅 ...

Report Title - Benzene Ethylene Weekly Report: EB: Supply-demand margin weakens, inventory stops falling, focus on raw material resonance opportunities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although there is a strong expectation of OPEC+ production increase, the macro - environment is stable, and the peak season boosts, so oil prices maintain a volatile trend. On the pure benzene side, both domestic supply and demand increase, but supply increases more than demand. Due to the non - opening of the America - Asia arbitrage window and the successive return of maintenance devices in Japan and South Korea, high imports are expected to continue. The destocking of pure benzene port inventory is difficult, with relatively large year - on - year pressure, which drags down the styrene price. For styrene, weekly supply increases while demand decreases. Some upstream devices will resume production in June, and some downstream sectors enter the off - season. There are pressures in terms of profit and inventory on the 3S side, so it is difficult to effectively drive the styrene price. Styrene inventory stops falling and accumulates this week, and is expected to enter a volatile stage, mainly focusing on the absolute year - on - year level. Currently, the estimated valuation of styrene is still high. Considering the fundamentals of pure benzene, the valuation regression probably requires a downward correction of styrene. Therefore, maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, pay attention to raw material resonance opportunities in terms of rhythm, and be vigilant against macro risks [3] Strategy Recommendations Futures Strategy - Maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near - month contract at 7400 [4] Option Strategy - Sell EB2507 - C - 7500 [4] Summary by Directory Pure Benzene 2025 Production and Investment Plan - Multiple companies in different provinces have plans for pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong has a 100 - million - ton pure benzene production plan from 2024Q4 - 2025 and a 50 - million - ton styrene production plan in 2025Q1 [6] 2025 May - July Device Dynamics - Many companies' devices have maintenance plans from May to July 2025, such as Hubei Jin'ao's device, which stopped for maintenance on March 11 and is expected to restart in mid - May [8] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - From May to July 2025, the planned new pure benzene production capacity is about 1.33 million tons/year, and the downstream new production capacity is about 400,000 tons/year. The planned pure benzene shutdown involves a production capacity of 4.46 million tons/year, and the downstream shutdown production capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. The net supply reduction is about 239,000 tons, and the net demand reduction is about 341,000 tons. Overall, inventory is expected to accumulate [9] Price and Profit - The prices of pure benzene in different regions and the price differences between different regions are presented in the report. The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low [15] Downstream Situation - The weighted downstream operating rate of pure benzene has recently declined slightly. The styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43] Styrene and Its Downstream Spot and Futures - The spot price, basis, and monthly spread of styrene are presented in the report [53] Supply - The monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit of styrene are shown. Asia has multiple styrene device exits, and China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70] Inventory - Styrene port inventory has stopped falling and continued to accumulate [71] Downstream Situation - The 3S production capacity growth rate is high, intensifying industry competition. The estimated weekly styrene consumption converted from 3S production has decreased. The downstream prices have weakened, and the profits are under pressure. The high - production inventory is higher year - on - year, indicating possible demand transmission resistance. After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand should focus on subsidy stimulation [76][81][92]

数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。清仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数:根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 | 硅铁(SF509) | 5528 | 5104 | 424 | 8.31% | 94.70% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5720 | 182 | 3.29% | 55.10% | 5538 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 145 | 2975 | 61.80% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 3120 | 4.87% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3200 | 108 | 3092 | 3.49% | 58.80% | 热卷 (HC2510) | | | | | | 61 | 769 | 708 | 8.63% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(B ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解镍 | 123400 | 123100 | 300 | 0.24% | 7C/HT | | 1#多川镇 | 124500 | 124200 | 300 | 0.24% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2450 | 2450 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 122300 | 122100 | 200 | 0.16% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 250 | 350 | -100 | -- | 元/肥 | | LME 0-3 | -182 | -189 | 7 | -3.68% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3595 | -3563 | -32 | 0.90% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年6月9日 | | | 高敏波 | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3120 | 3100 | 20 | 149 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3180 | 20 | 229 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 259 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2975 | 2952 | 23 | 145 | | | 螺纹钢10台约 | 2975 | 2959 | 16 | 145 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2971 | 2951 | 20 | 149 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3200 | 3180 | 20 | 113 | | | 热卷现货(华北) 热卷现货(华南) | 3120 3230 | 3120 3220 | 0 ...