Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Fats and Oils - Malaysian palm oil may end its rebound and weaken due to potential inventory growth at the end of November. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are expected to strengthen to 8800 yuan in the short - term. The long - term demand for soy oil depends on the US EPA's decision on 2026 biofuel blending obligations, and currently, the domestic demand for soy oil is weak, but the basis is expected to remain stable due to oil mills' price - holding psychology [1]. Hogs - The pig market supply and demand are basically balanced. Pig prices are expected to be weak and volatile in December. The strategy of inter - month reverse spreads can be maintained, and the single - side market is expected to bottom out [4]. Meal Products - The US soybean is supported by the drought risk in the Argentine production area and the interest - rate cut expectation, but is affected by tariffs and Brazilian soybean exports. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to be in a sideways trend with support for the basis due to expected supply decline [8]. Corn - The short - term corn market is firm due to tight supply, but price increases are limited because of unsold pressure. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of corn supply and procurement changes [10]. Sugar - The global raw sugar remains weak. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, and the market may rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures are stabilizing. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range - bound, with strong support at the bottom and continued hedging pressure [16]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs has been relieved, but the terminal demand is weak. Egg futures prices are expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of Dalian palm oil futures rose, with the P2601 contract up 0.79%. The price of soy oil futures (Y2601) was flat, and the price of rapeseed oil futures (Ol601) fell 0.26% [1]. - **Market Analysis**: For palm oil, the production decline in Malaysia and the rise in US soy oil support the price in the short - term, but the expected inventory increase is a potential negative factor. For soy oil, the US biofuel policy affects long - term demand, and currently, domestic demand is weak [1]. Hogs - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the live hog 2605 contract rose 0.21%, and the 2601 contract fell 0.35%. The slaughter volume increased 0.39%, and the breeding profit decreased [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The market supply and demand are balanced, with an expected increase in December supply. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the basis of the main contract decreased [4]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of soy meal futures (M2601) rose 0.20%, and the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2601) was flat. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans and Canadian rapeseed increased [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The US soybean is affected by multiple factors. The domestic soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the basis is supported by expected supply decline [8]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the corn 2601 contract rose 0.31%, and the price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.16%. The import cost increased, and the import profit decreased [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply in the northeast and north China is tight, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is different. The short - term price is firm, but the increase is limited [10]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the sugar 2601 contract fell 0.43%, and the ICE raw sugar rose 1.56%. The domestic sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The global raw sugar is weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern, with a possible rebound after the pre - sold sugar is sold out [14][15]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the cotton 2605 contract rose 0.22%, and the ICE US cotton fell 0.05%. The domestic cotton spot price rose, and the commercial inventory increased [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The ICE cotton is stabilizing, and the domestic cotton is affected by hedging pressure and demand. The price is expected to be range - bound [16]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On December 2, the price of the egg 01 contract fell slightly, and the 02 contract rose 0.89%. The egg price in the production area fell 0.20%, and the breeding profit decreased [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The egg futures price is expected to remain in a bottom - sideways pattern [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it is advisable to continue holding. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, one can focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on rebar and short on iron ore in the January contract [2]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore futures will continue to oscillate with a slight upward trend, operating in the range of 750 - 820 [5]. - Coke: The coke futures have fallen in advance, basically over - anticipating the spot price cut. As the finished products oscillate and rise, it may follow coking coal to anticipate a rebound in advance. The strategy is to view it as a range - bound oscillation, with the reference range of 1550 - 1700, and an arbitrage of selling the January contract and buying the May contract of coke is recommended [9]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal spot prices continue to fall, and the futures have rebounded in advance after a significant decline. It should be viewed as a range - bound oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1150, and an arbitrage of selling the January contract and buying the May contract of coking coal is recommended [9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300, 3220, and 3350 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3169, 3208, and 3133 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Hot - rolled Coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3310, 3240, and 3350 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3322, 3338, and 3325 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Costs and Profits: The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar is 3245 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3177 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China are - 45, - 115, and 205 yuan/ton respectively. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China are - 25, - 80, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal output is 234.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.6 thousand tons or 0.7% [2]. - The output of five major steel products is 855.7 thousand tons, an increase of 5.8 thousand tons or 0.7%. Rebar output is 206.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.9 thousand tons or 0.9%. Hot - rolled coil output is 319.0 thousand tons, an increase of 3.0 thousand tons or 0.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1400.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 32.3 thousand tons or 2.3%. Rebar inventory is 531.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 21.9 thousand tons or 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.2 thousand tons or 0.3% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 9.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.7 thousand tons or 21.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.2 thousand tons or 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.8 thousand tons or 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.2 thousand tons or 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines are 811.0, 845.8, 857.3, and 844.6 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis for these four types of iron ore has increased slightly [5]. - The 5 - 9 spread is 24.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.0 yuan or 4.0%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan or 1.0%; the 1 - 5 spread is 25.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan or 6.4% [5]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 2699.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 117.8 thousand tons or 4.2%. The global weekly shipment volume is 3323.2 thousand tons, an increase of 44.8 thousand tons or 1.4%. The monthly national import volume is 11130.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 500.6 thousand tons or 4.3% [5]. Demand - The weekly average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 234.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.6 thousand tons or 0.7%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports is 330.6 thousand tons, an increase of 3.6 thousand tons or 1.1%. The monthly national pig iron output is 6554.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 49.7 thousand tons or 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel output is 7199.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 149.3 thousand tons or 2.0% [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has increased by 27.3 thousand tons or 0.2% compared to Monday. The inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills is 8942.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 58.8 thousand tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days for 64 steel mills remain unchanged at 20 days [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke: The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The 01 and 05 contracts are 1630 and 1765 yuan/ton respectively. The coking profit (weekly) is - 54 yuan/ton [9]. - Coking Coal: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur prime coking coal (warehouse - receipt) has decreased by 80 yuan/ton or 5.8%. The 01 and 05 contracts are 1097 and 1180 yuan/ton respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 587 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton or 4.8% [9]. Supply - Coke: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 thousand tons, an increase of 1.1 thousand tons or 1.7%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 thousand tons, an increase of 0.1 thousand tons or 0.2% [9]. - Coking Coal: The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines' raw coal is 856.1 thousand tons, an increase of 4.6 thousand tons or 0.5%. The weekly output of clean coal is 433.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 4.9 thousand tons or 1.1% [9]. Demand - Coke: The weekly hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 234.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.6 thousand tons or 0.7% [9]. - Coking Coal: The demand for coking coal is related to the coke production. After the coking profit recovers, the coking plant's production starts to increase slightly, and the replenishment demand weakens [9]. Inventory - Coke: The total coke inventory is 884.7 thousand tons, an increase of 4.0 thousand tons or 0.5%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports are 71.8, 625.5, and 187.4 thousand tons respectively [9]. - Coking Coal: The inventory of Fenwei coal mine clean coal is 107.6 thousand tons, an increase of 9.6 thousand tons or 9.8%. The inventories of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills are 1010.3 and 801.3 thousand tons respectively [9].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年12月3日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 唱种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | IF期现价差 | -18.53 | 2.55 | 48.30ac | 25.30% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -7.07 | 0.21 | 30.70% | 28.80% | 期现价差 | -58.10 | 38.90% | IC開題价差 | 12.13 | 14.50% | IM期现价差 | -73.58 | -23.27 | 75.0096 | 26.90% | | 次月-崇月 | -18.00 | -3.60 | 22.50% | 25.1096 | 季月 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The reports cover multiple industries including polyolefin, methanol, crude oil, natural rubber, urea, benzene - styrene, glass - soda ash, PVC - caustic soda, and polyester产业链 on December 3, 2025 [1][5][9][10][12][13][14][15][16] Group 2: Industry Price and Spread Changes Polyolefin - Futures prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 increased on December 2 compared to December 1, with L2601 rising 0.41% to 6831 yuan/ton and PP2601 rising 0.20% to 6410 yuan/ton [2] - Price differences such as L15, LP01, etc. also had corresponding changes, with L15 rising 8.33% [2] Methanol - MA2601 decreased 0.19% to 2132 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1, while MA2605 remained unchanged [5] - Methanol enterprise inventory increased 4.19% to 37.3712%, and methanol port inventory decreased 7.83% to 136.4 million tons [5] Crude Oil - Brent decreased 1.14% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased 1.15% to 58.64 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1 [9] Natural Rubber - Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased 0.34% to 14850 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [10] - The basis of whole latex decreased 13.33% to - 510 yuan/ton [10] Urea - Futures prices of different contracts had slight increases or decreases, with the 01 contract increasing 0.72% to 1687 yuan/ton [12] - The difference between the 01 and 05 contracts changed, with an increase of 4 in the difference [12] Benzene - Styrene - Brent crude oil (January) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel on December 2 compared to December 1, and styrene in East China increased 0.9% to 6680 yuan/ton [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Glass in North China decreased 0.92% to 1080 yuan/ton, and soda ash in North China remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased 0.4% to 4510 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [15] Polyester Industry Chain - Brent crude oil (February) decreased 1.1% to 62.45 dollars/barrel, and POY150/48 price increased 0.4% to 6485 yuan/ton on December 2 compared to December 1 [16] Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand and Inventory Polyolefin - Polypropylene supply maintenance due to high - level overhauls is expected to recover, and inventory reduction is accelerating but still higher than previous years; polyethylene supply is increasing, and although upstream inventory is decreasing, it is still higher year - on - year [2] Methanol - Inland methanol supply increased with device restarts, and coal - and gas - based profits were weak; port imports are expected to decline significantly in Q1 due to Iranian gas restrictions [5][6] Crude Oil - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventories of crude oil and refined oil increased according to API data [9] Natural Rubber - Supply is expected to increase during the seasonal peak production period, and inventory is accumulating, while demand from semi - steel and full - steel tire markets is weak [10] Urea - Domestic urea daily production increased 1.19% to 20.34 million tons on November 27 compared to November 28, and urea plant inventory decreased 5.10% to 136.39 million tons [12] Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is sufficient with device restarts and expected imports, and demand support is limited; styrene supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is also limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious in December [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash production decreased due to device overhauls but recently recovered, and glass factory inventory decreased slightly; real - estate data shows mixed trends with new construction area decreasing and completion area increasing [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is abundant, and demand support is weak; PVC supply pressure remains, and demand is in the off - season, but export orders are relatively good [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to be better in the medium - term, and PTA supply decreased more than expected, while demand support is stronger than expected; MEG inventory accumulation in December is expected to narrow, but supply pressure remains [16] Group 4: Industry Core Views and Strategies Polyolefin - The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [2] Methanol - Inland supply increases, and port imports are expected to decline, with winter fuel demand providing support [6] Crude Oil - International oil prices are expected to continue range - bound, with Brent likely to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars/barrel in the short - term [9] Natural Rubber - The market is expected to maintain range - bound consolidation, with rubber prices expected to operate between 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [10] Urea - No specific overall view and strategy are clearly stated in the provided text [12] Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds; for styrene, short - term EB01 is recommended to be treated as wide - range fluctuations [13] Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash is expected to be in a bottom - range fluctuation, and glass is expected to face pressure in the medium - and long - term, with the 01 contract having pressure in December [14] PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak, and PVC is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [15] Polyester Industry Chain - PX is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 7000 yuan/ton in the short - term; PTA is expected to be in a high - level range - bound in the short - term; MEG is expected to be in a range - bound in December; short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations, and processing fees are recommended to be shorted on highs; bottle - chip processing fees are expected to be squeezed [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong, maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold previous long positions, and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - level changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes, the futures price fluctuates and declines, and the contango arbitrage window closes. In December, the market remains in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected that the price will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - In December, the supply exceeds demand, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. The price is under pressure. For futures, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, consider taking profits and closing positions [6]. Nickel - The nickel price has limited upward driving force. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [7]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to remain in a weak oscillation, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [9]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina suppresses the price, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference operating range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production - cut scale and inventory inflection point [15]. Aluminum - It is expected that the aluminum price will remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the sustainability of inventory depletion [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and demand, the short - term price trend of casting aluminum alloy is strong, with the main contract reference operating range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap - aluminum supply and inventory depletion [17]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the downward price space is limited in the short term, but the upside elasticity is also limited. The main reference range is 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [19]. Copper - The copper price runs at a high level. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the price bottom. The main support range is 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 304700 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; LME 0 - 3 premium is 150.00 dollars/ton, up 21.95% [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: For example, the spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 820 yuan/ton, down 22.39% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon is 9550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of oxygen - containing SI5530 increased by 41.98% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 250.00% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month - on - month comparison, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of the front - month to the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 119900 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 2.08% [7]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 230 yuan/ton, down [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2601 - 2602 is - 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72%, and the net export volume decreased by 21.54% [9]. Alumina - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21710 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 2760 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [14][16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 is - 40.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [14][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in Southwest China is 21600 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 1.77% [17]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22740 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the import profit and loss is - 5470 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and in October, imports decreased by 16.94% [19]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 88660 yuan/ton, down 0.69%; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.99% [20]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spread of 2512 - 2601 is - 50 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61% [20].

广发期货研究通讯 2025 年 12 月 3 日星期三 美国玉米生产与出口格局演变 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818008 E-Mail：zhudi@gf.com.cn 摘要： 美国玉米种植结构调整围绕作物收益预期动态变化，大豆玉米比 价作为关键指引，直接影响农户的种植选择，推动玉米种植面积在不 同周期呈现扩缩波动。与此同时，农业技术的持续进步推动美国玉米 单产水平稳步提高，与种植面积的动态调整相结合，共同支撑起总产 量的稳步增长，为国内多元需求及对外出口提供了坚实基础。 在全球玉米出口市场中，美国长期稳居核心地位，但其出口格局 近年来发生了显著的结构性调整，主要驱动来于中国进口需求的剧烈 变动。面对传统核心买家的需求收缩，美国迅速调整出口策略，通过 巩固与传统市场的合作、积极开拓新兴市场潜力，稳固了自身的出口 优势。这一转变也带动全球玉米进口格局同步重塑，推动相关进口国 转向多元化采购渠道，南美、东欧等地区的出口国顺势填补市场空缺， 形成了新的全球玉米贸易平衡。 研究通讯 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息 朱迪（投资咨询资格编号：Z0015979） 电话：020-88 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 壬凌旋 Z0019938 2025年12月2日 | | 臣阳 | | 上升至10.53亿磅。目前交易商密切关注美国环保署关于2026年生物燃料橡浪义务的 | | 8610 现价 江苏一级 8560 50 0.58% | | 期价 Y2601 8288 8244 44 0.53% | | 墓差 Y2601 322 316 6 1.90% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 01+280 01+270 10 - | | 仓单 2469 0 2469 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | 12月1日 11月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8570 8570 0 0.00% | | 期价 P2601 8652 8626 26 0.30% | | 基差 P2601 -82 -56 -26 -46.43% | | 现货墓差报价 广东1月 01-30 01-30 0 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9077.0 8995.0 82.0 0.91% | | 采购大豆、小麦和高粱,为市场带来新的需求预期。但是考虑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton. Consider long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage operations for the January contract, as well as the convergence arbitrage of the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar for the January contract [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, with an operating range of 750 - 820 [5][7]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures are expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts. - Coking coal futures are also expected to rebound in a single - sided fluctuation, with a reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is a reverse spread between the January and May contracts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, the rebar 05 contract rose from 3117 to 3167 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3288 to 3320 yuan/ton. - Steel production costs and profits showed different changes. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 19 yuan/ton [2]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.7%, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 0.9%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.9%. - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.3%, the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.3% [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.6%, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.2%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of some iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the inventory cost of Carajás fines increased by 1.2%, and the 01 - contract basis of Carajás fines increased by 40.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 4.2%, the global weekly shipping volume increased by 1.4%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.3%. - The demand indicators such as the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output also decreased [5]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7% [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices rebounded, while some spot prices decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract rose by 2.9%, and the coking coal 01 contract rose by 2.4%. The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 3.04% [8]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.7%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%. - Some coal mines stopped production, with a total approved capacity of 540 million tons, and are expected to resume production after short - term rectification [8]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7%, and the demand for coking coal and coke weakened to some extent [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.5%, with coking plants and steel mills accumulating inventory and ports reducing inventory. - The overall coking coal inventory increased slightly, with coal washing plants, ports, and coking enterprises reducing inventory, and coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills accumulating inventory [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the US dollar index has recently peaked and declined, and further interest rate cuts remain a high - probability scenario. A - share major indices have also rebounded, but the trading volume does not support a breakthrough. [3] - There may be incremental information that could break the bond market's consolidation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying scale in October announced in early November. [3] - Gold prices have broken through previous resistance and are expected to rise further above $4200; silver prices may further approach the previous high of $54 under the influence of the delivery period. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index - With the pro - cyclical sector performing strongly, all stock indices have risen. Short - term advice is to lightly sell December put options. When volatility is low, one can gradually build a bull spread on dips to layout for the spring market. [3] Treasury Bonds - As funds have loosened, treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly. In the short term, if there is unexpectedly positive news, treasury bond futures may have a phased rebound; otherwise, it will be difficult to break out of the consolidation. Unilateral strategies suggest reducing left - hand operations, and attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying scale and the implementation of redemption regulations. For cash - and - carry strategies, attention should be paid to the 2603 contract's cash - and - carry and basis - widening strategies. [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise further above $4200; silver prices may approach the previous high of $54. Platinum strategies should maintain a low - buying approach or buy out - of - the - money call options, and a long - platinum short - lithium hedge can also be tried. [3] Black Sector - For steel, consider a long - rebar short - iron - ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. Iron ore is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a reference range of 750 - 820. Coking coal and coke are expected to rebound in a volatile manner, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. [3] Non - ferrous Sector - Copper prices have risen again due to supply shortage concerns. For aluminum, short - term low - buying is recommended. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For other non - ferrous metals, specific trading ranges and strategies are provided. [3] New Energy Sector - Industrial silicon futures have declined after volatility, with a price range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, buy out - of - the - money put options. For lithium carbonate, wait and see. [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - For various chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc., different trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand situations, including high - level consolidation, short - term low - level cash - and - carry, and narrowing processing fees. [3] Agricultural Sector - For agricultural products such as grains, oils, sugar, cotton, etc., different market trends and trading suggestions are given, such as narrow - range consolidation, following overseas markets to rise, and bottom - level consolidation. [3]