| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | 2025年6月11日 | | | | | | | 票 | | | | | | | | | 6月10日 | 6月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8140 | 8140 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7434 | 7436 | -2 | -0.03% | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 706 | 704 | 2 | 0.28% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+280 | -10 | - | | 仓单 | | 17652 | 17652 | O | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | | 6月10日 | 6月9日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8600 | 8600 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7998 | 8036 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PE and PP - PE had inventory accumulation at the beginning of the week and slight destocking in social inventory. With domestic supply slightly increasing and imports decreasing, and being in the off - season of demand, it is expected to destock in June with limited supply pressure and driving forces. - PP will have new capacity put into operation from June to July, and being in the seasonal off - season of demand, there is a large pressure of inventory accumulation. With weakening basis and weak non - standard price ratio, and low export profit, it is recommended to short at high prices [19]. Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices fluctuated. The optimistic sentiment of China - US trade negotiations and the reduction of Saudi crude oil supply to China supported the market, but poor economic data restricted the upside. - Overall, the warming macro - atmosphere boosts demand expectations. In the summer consumption peak season and with no obvious increase in supply pressure, there is still a probability of destocking in upstream inventory. The market is currently in a relatively strong oscillatory trend, and it is recommended to take a short - term long - biased approach [23]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price rose strongly. The planned shutdown of a styrene factory and the continuous decline of styrene port inventory boosted the styrene market. The shutdown of North China pure benzene plants and downstream rigid - demand production supported the pure benzene price. - For styrene, the improvement of downstream profits led to some replenishment, driving a slight decline in port inventory. However, in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply and demand after the restart of styrene plants, and the difficulty of destocking in the pure benzene end due to high imports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the short - biased opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium - term [29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic soda has recently declined, mainly due to the downward shift of the cost center. In terms of supply and demand, the supply has generally increased, but the capacity utilization rate in Shandong has declined due to maintenance. The demand side is in the non - aluminum off - season, but alumina still supports the demand in the core area. It is recommended to exit the positive spread and wait and see in the short - term, and wait and see on the single - side position. - For PVC, the short - term macro - sentiment has improved slightly, and it is expected to oscillate with no further intensification of supply - demand contradictions. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. It is recommended to take a short - biased approach [37]. Urea - The industry's daily production has reached 205,100 tons, showing overall weakness and failing to match the high supply. Agricultural demand has slightly improved, but the trading activity is not high, and the agricultural fertilizer reserve is lower than the same period last year. The decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate further weakens industrial demand. The future trading logic focuses on the agricultural demand time point and export dynamics [45]. Methanol - On the supply side, the domestic start - up rate is high, and the import expectation is still high. Although there are short - term accidental reductions, the overall loose pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, most MTO units have increased their loads, but the downstream profits have deteriorated. It is recommended to operate in the price range of 2,200 - 2,350 [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: After the profit repair of PX in the early stage, the supply has increased significantly in the near - term. With the further expansion of the production reduction plan of downstream polyester giants, the supply - demand of PX has weakened marginally. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, do short - term reverse spreads for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high. - **PTA**: The future PTA load will increase significantly, and with the early commissioning of a new PTA device, and the further expansion of the production reduction expectation of downstream giants, the supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 4,500 - 4,600 and do reverse spreads for TA9 - 1 when it is high. - **MEG**: In June, the domestic production of ethylene glycol will remain low. The supply - demand structure in June is still good, with expectations of destocking in both implicit and explicit inventories. It is recommended that EG09 oscillate in the range of 4,200 - 4,400 and pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads for EG9 - 1 when it is low. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee of short - fiber has been repaired recently, but the terminal demand is still weak. It is recommended to take the same approach as PTA for PF unilaterally and expand the processing fee at the low level. - **Bottle - chip**: In June, the supply - demand of bottle - chips is expected to improve. It is recommended that the main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding at the lower edge of the range [51]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all had small changes. The basis and price spreads of PE and PP also changed to different degrees. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.41%. PP device operating rate increased by 2.1%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 19.2% [19]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all had small changes. The price spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed to different degrees. - **Market Analysis**: China - US trade negotiations, Saudi crude oil supply reduction, and geopolitical factors affected the crude oil market [23]. Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other upstream prices changed to different degrees. - **Styrene Market**: Styrene prices rose, and port inventory decreased slightly. The profits of downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS also changed [26][27][29]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC and their price spreads changed to different degrees. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC production and their downstream industries changed, and the inventories of caustic soda and PVC also changed [33][35][37]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures contract prices and spot market prices of urea were relatively stable. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production, operating rate, inventory, and other supply - demand indicators changed to different degrees [40][44][45]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices, basis, and regional price spreads changed. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed to different degrees [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX, and the prices and price spreads of downstream polyester products all changed to different degrees. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, and the MEG port inventory increased [51].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君多空头均减仓超 1000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 基本持平 | 国君减仓、中信增仓 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君多空头均减仓千手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君中信多空均增仓近 3000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -7,494.0 -1,337.0 -5,738.0 2,414.0 -3,841.0 45.0 -1,543.0 13,583.0 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 IF IH IC IM 主力合约持仓变动 总持仓变动 2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：z ...

Report Information - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [3] Core Data Ferrous Metals - Silicon Iron (SF509): Futures price is 5528, spot price is 5174, basis is 354, basis rate is 6.84%, historical quantile is 92.30% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM509): Futures price is 5720, spot price is 5552, basis is 168, basis rate is 3.03% [1] - Rebar (RB2510): Futures price is 2981, spot price is 3110, basis is -129, basis rate is -4.33%, historical quantile is 58.30% [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510): Futures price is 300E, spot price is 3200, basis is -105, basis rate is -3.39%, historical quantile is 57.90% [1] - Iron Ore (I2509): Futures price is 758, spot price is 703, basis is 55, basis rate is 7.79%, historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - Coke (J2509): Futures price is 1347, spot price is 1339, basis is 8, basis rate is 0.59%, historical quantile is 50.31% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2509): Futures price is 838, spot price is 780, basis is 58, basis rate is 7.44%, historical quantile is 36.10% [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2507): Futures price is 78910, spot price is 78875, basis is -35, basis rate is -0.04%, historical quantile is 36.66% [1] - Aluminum (AL2507): Futures price is 20210, spot price is 20025, basis is 185, basis rate is 0.92%, historical quantile is 87.50% [1] - Zinc (ZN2507): Futures price is 22520, spot price is 21910, basis is 610, basis rate is 2.78%, historical quantile is 98.75% [1] - Tin (SN2507): Futures price is 263900, spot price is 263740, basis is 160, basis rate is 0.06%, historical quantile is 52.08% [1] - Nickel (NI2507): Futures price is 122710, spot price is 122700, basis is -10, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 52.70% [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2507): Futures price is 13170, spot price is 12640, basis is 530, basis rate is 4.19%, historical quantile is 90.98% [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2507): Futures price is 60700, spot price is 60550, basis is 150, basis rate is -0.74%, historical quantile is 40.48% [1] - Industrial Silicon (SI2507): Futures price is 8150, spot price is 7475, basis is 675, basis rate is 9.03%, historical quantile is 48.12% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2508): Futures price is 739.8, spot price is 735.4, basis is -4.4, basis rate is -0.60%, historical quantile is 7.40% [1] - Silver (AG2508): Futures price is 8008.0, spot price is 7967.0, basis is -41.0, basis rate is -0.51%, historical quantile is 9.80% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal (M2509): Futures price is 3019.0, spot price is 2840, basis is -179.0, basis rate is -5.93%, historical quantile is 27.00% [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2509): Futures price is 7970, spot price is 7766.0, basis is 204.0, basis rate is 2.63% [1] - Palm Oil (P2509): Futures price is 8580, spot price is 8182.0, basis is 398.0, basis rate is 4.86%, historical quantile is 66.00% [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM509): Futures price is 2614.0, spot price is 2490, basis is -124.0, basis rate is -4.74%, historical quantile is 12.90% [1] - Rapeseed Oil (OI509): Futures price is 9360, spot price is 9182.0, basis is 178.0, basis rate is 1.94%, historical quantile is 57.10% [1] - Corn (C2507): Futures price is 2357.0, spot price is 2350, basis is -7.0, basis rate is -0.30%, historical quantile is 43.50% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2507): Futures price is 2700, spot price is 2687.0, basis is 13.0, basis rate is 0.48%, historical quantile is 13.80% [1] - Live Hogs (LH2509): Futures price is 13880, spot price is 13475.0, basis is 405.0, basis rate is 3.01%, historical quantile is 51.60% [1] - Eggs (JD2507): Futures price is 2837.0, spot price is 2650, basis is -187.0, basis rate is -6.59%, historical quantile is 15.50% [1] - Cotton (CF509): Futures price is 14485, spot price is 13495.0, basis is 990.0, basis rate is 7.34%, historical quantile is 60.10% [1] - Sugar (SR509): Futures price is 6170, spot price is 5734.0, basis is 436.0, basis rate is 7.60%, historical quantile is 80.20% [1] - Apples (AP510): Futures price is 8600, spot price is 7486.0, basis is 1114.0, basis rate is 14.88%, historical quantile is 75.60% [1] - Red Dates (CJ509): Futures price is 8910.0, spot price is 8300, basis is -610.0, basis rate is -6.85%, historical quantile is 69.20% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX509): Futures price is 7063.7, spot price is 6788.0, basis is 275.7, basis rate is 4.06%, historical quantile is 93.90% [1] - PTA (TA509): Futures price is 4980.0, spot price is 4814.0, basis is 166.0, basis rate is 3.45%, historical quantile is 79.40% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2509): Futures price is 4510.0, spot price is 4359.0, basis is 151.0, basis rate is 3.46%, historical quantile is 94.10% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF507): Futures price is 6530.0, spot price is 6500.0, basis is 30.0, basis rate is 0.46%, historical quantile is 55.50% [1] - Styrene (EB2507): Futures price is 7790.0, spot price is 7226.0, basis is 564.0, basis rate is 7.81%, historical quantile is 91.90% [1] - Methanol (MA509): Futures price is 2235.0, spot price is 2218.0, basis is 17.0, basis rate is 0.77%, historical quantile is 51.00% [1] - Urea (UR509): Futures price is 1880.0, spot price is 1784.0, basis is 96.0, basis rate is 5.38%, historical quantile is 41.60% [1] - LLDPE (L2509): Futures price is 7125.0, spot price is 7025.0, basis is 100.0, basis rate is 1.42%, historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - PP (PP2509): Futures price is 7135.0, spot price is 6918.0, basis is 217.0, basis rate is 3.14%, historical quantile is 72.80% [1] - PVC (V2509): Futures price is 4744.0, spot price is 4650.0, basis is -94.0, basis rate is -1.98%, historical quantile is 55.20% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH209): Futures price is 2750.0, spot price is 2479.0, basis is 271.0, basis rate is 10.93%, historical quantile is 83.10% [1] - LPG (PG2507): Futures price is 4698.0, spot price is 4120.0, basis is 578.0, basis rate is 14.03%, historical quantile is 73.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509): Futures price is 3640.0, spot price is 3514.0, basis is 126.0, basis rate is 3.59%, historical quantile is 77.50% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2507): Futures price is 11700.0, spot price is 11345.0, basis is 355.0, basis rate is 3.13%, historical quantile is 67.10% [1] - Glass (FG509): Futures price is 1036.0, spot price is 1006.0, basis is 30.0, basis rate is 2.90%, historical quantile is 73.26% [1] - Soda Ash (SA509): Futures price is 1252.0, spot price is 1202.0, basis is 50.0, basis rate is 3.99%, historical quantile is 44.84% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2509): Futures price is 13725.0, spot price is 13650.0, basis is -75.0, basis rate is -0.55%, historical quantile is 93.75% [1] Financial Futures - CSI 300 (IF2506): Futures price is 3885.2, spot price is 3867.8, basis is 17.4, basis rate is 0.45%, historical quantile is 24.40% [1] - SSE 50 (IH2506): Futures price is 2686.8, spot price is 2676.6, basis is 10.2, basis rate is 0.38% [1] - CSI 500 (IC2506): Futures price is 5805.7, spot price is 5766.4, basis is 39.3, basis rate is 0.68%, historical quantile is 30.70% [1] - CSI 1000 (IM2506): Futures price is 6219.0, spot price is 6167.8, basis is 51.2, basis rate is 0.83%, historical quantile is 24.30% [1] - 2-year Treasury Bond (TS2509): Futures price is 102.44, spot price is 100.28, basis is -2.16, basis rate is -2.11%, historical quantile is 10.80% [1] - 5-year Treasury Bond (TF2509): Futures price is 106.12, spot price is 101.02, basis is -5.1, basis rate is -4.81%, historical quantile is 23.60% [1] - 10-year Treasury Bond (T2509): Futures price is 108.98, spot price is 99.63, basis is -9.35, basis rate is -8.58%, historical quantile is 10.70% [1] - 30-year Treasury Bond (TL2509): Futures price is 135.79, spot price is 120.07, basis is -15.72, basis rate is -13.09%, historical quantile is 52.60% [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes various financial, commodity, and agricultural products, providing insights on their market trends and offering corresponding trading strategies based on factors such as economic negotiations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: Due to upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the stock index continues to rise. The lower support of the index is stable, but the upward breakthrough pressure remains. The index is affected by news in the short - term and may fluctuate. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6 - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8 - 1.95%. The short - end varieties are relatively strong. It is recommended to conduct range - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. In the medium - term, pay attention to the strategy of steepening the curve [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may have pulse - type fluctuations during the short - term range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. Silver has continued to break through, and its high volatility has pushed the price up to around $38 per ounce (9000 yuan per kilogram). Long positions can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to buy the 08 contract on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel products are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The high - level of molten iron production is declining. Pay attention to the marginal changes in terminal demand. The price is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The auction failure rate in the market has decreased, and the coal mine production at a high level is declining. The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short the JM2509 contract on rallies [3]. - **Coke**: The third - round price cut by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. Coking coal is weak and making concessions. It is recommended to short the J2509 contract on rallies [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: There is an expectation of a rebound. The supply in Ningxia is increasing rapidly, and the cost is temporarily stable. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure still exists. Pay attention to the cost changes. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 77000 - 80000 [3]. - **Zinc**: The mine production is gradually increasing, and the zinc price is oscillating weakly. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 21000 - 23000 [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 118000 - 126000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is operating weakly, and the fundamental contradictions remain unchanged. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 12600 - 13200 [3]. - **Tin**: The supply recovery progress is slow, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The tin price continues to rebound. It is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The warming macro - atmosphere has boosted market confidence. The market is currently in a relatively strong oscillation trend. It is recommended to take a short - term long - biased approach. The upper pressure levels for WTI are [64.66], for Brent are [67, 69], and for SC are [475, 485] [3]. - **Urea**: The short - term supply is strong and the demand is weak, dragging the market down. Pay attention to the policy and sentiment game in the future. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for a rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1640 - 1660, and it is recommended to conduct a reverse spread operation on the 09 - 01 spread [3]. - **PX**: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 6500 - 6900. It is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity for PX9 - 1 and narrow the PX - SC spread on rallies [3]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. The low - level price still has support. The short - term price is expected to be in the range of 4600 - 4900. It is recommended to short on rallies and conduct a reverse spread operation on PTA9 - 1 [3]. - **Short - fiber**: Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral strategy is the same as that for PTA. It is recommended to widen the processing fee on the low - level of the PF disk [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts. The processing fee is bottom - seeking, and the price follows the cost. The main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan per ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing fee at the lower limit of the range [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. The short - term EG09 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400. Pay attention to the positive spread opportunity for EG9 - 1 on dips [3]. - **Styrene**: The short - term raw materials and styrene inventory reduction support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term supply - demand pressure. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and short on rallies when the raw materials resonate in the medium - term [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The alumina procurement supports the spot price. Pay attention to the inventory and cost. Continue to hold the 7 - 9 positive spread [3]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively resolve. Pay attention to the changes in India's BIS policy in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price follows the commodity market fluctuations. Hold the short position of the BR2507 contract [3]. - **LLDPE**: The overall situation has not changed much, and the trading volume is moderate [3]. - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the price is oscillating [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The CBOT price is rising steadily, and the price is oscillating strongly [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for fundamental data guidance. The short - term price is testing the support level of 8000 [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [3]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. - **Eggs**: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Short the 07 contract on rallies and hold the short position [3]. - **Apples**: The inventory apples are sold slowly, but the price is firm. The main contract price is expected to be around 7500 [3]. - **Jujubes**: The market price is weakly stable. The short - term price is expected to be around 8900 [3]. - **Peanuts**: The market price is oscillating. The main contract price is expected to be around 8300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply logic continues. It is recommended to short on rallies. Hold the short position and the 79 positive spread [3]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The cold - repair news has disturbed the market, and the price has rebounded. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [3]. - **Rubber**: The market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price continues to rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies above 14000 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The trading volume of the industrial silicon futures has increased, and the price is rising. The price is in a low - level oscillation [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of downstream products has fallen, and the polysilicon futures price has declined. It is recommended to hold the short position if there is one [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamental logic has not been reversed. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 56000 - 62000 [3].

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 蒋语 Z00170002 2025年6月10日 | | | | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | 品种 现值 削值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1150 1160 | -10 | -0.86% | | | 华东报价 1270 1280 | -10 | -0.78% | | | 1070 华中报价 1070 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 1310 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 1118 1107 | 11 | 0.99% | | | 玻璃2509 1006 997 | 9 | 0.90% | | | 05 # 7 32 53 | -21 | -39.62% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | 品中 现值 前值 | 旅跌 | 旅鉄幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 1400 1450 | -50.0 | -3.45% | | | 华东报价 1350 1380 | -30. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel mills' production remains high with a slight decline, but apparent demand continues to fall, and hot-rolled coil inventory starts to accumulate. Real demand decline is being realized, and the overall demand expectation is still weak due to the off - season and tariff impacts. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Global iron ore shipments are increasing, reaching a high level this year, and the arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron is relatively stable, and the inventory is still in a destocking pattern. In the short - term, the price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view in the medium - to - long term [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures show a volatile trend with a divergence between futures and spot. The third round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of one more round of cuts. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at an appropriate time [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures are expected to rebound from the bottom, but the spot fundamentals are still bearish. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at a high price [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon production is increasing, and the supply pressure is rising during the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The ferromanganese supply pressure also exists, and the demand is weak. The cost side should focus on coal price changes [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show small fluctuations. For example, the price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remains unchanged, while the cost of some steel products has changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, and the rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a significant decline of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, a 2.9% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 to 1363.8, and the rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 to 570.5, a 1.8% decrease. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 to 340.6, a 2.4% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.2, a 1.8% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a 3.5% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract for most iron ore powders decreased significantly [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased, while the prices of some iron ore indexes increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, a 17.9% increase, and the global shipment volume increased by 242.3 to 3431.0, a 7.6% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a 0.3% decrease, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 to 987.0, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, a 14.0% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a 1.4% decrease [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton. The 09 contract price of coking coal increased slightly [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price decreased by 3.2 to 193 US dollars/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 to 873.0, a 1.4% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 to 445.0, a 1.9% decrease [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased slightly, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 to 818.9, a 3.2% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 to 770.9, a 2.0% decrease [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased by 70 to 5174, a 1.4% increase, and the ferromanganese主力合约 price increased by 14 to 5552, a 0.3% increase [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 11.2 to 5619.8, a 0.2% decrease, and the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased slightly [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 1.2 to 9.7, a 14.6% increase, and the ferromanganese production remained relatively stable [6]. Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon - chromium products increased by 0.2 to 17.2, a 1.2% increase, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 6.8, a 9.8% decrease, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises for ferromanganese increased slightly [6].

| 股指期货价差日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 Z0016628 2025年6月10日 叶倩宁 | | 价号 品种 匿新值 历史1年分位数 全历史分位数 较前一日变化 | | IE潮ூ役装 -17.45 1.14 28.60% 24.40% | | 期现价差 IC開现价差 -39.25 -2.58 27.00% 30.70% | | 次月-当月 -35.60 1.80 7.30% 9 30% | | 零月-当月 -65.40 6.60 13.1096 16.60% 元月-景月 -97.80 11.60 15,50% 19.40% | | F跨期价差 李月-次月 -29.80 4.80 14.70% 21.80% | | 远月-次月 -62.20 9.80 27.00% 24.80% | | 远月-李月 -32.40 5,00 32.30% 26.20% | | 次月-当月 -30.60 0.20 6.10% 6.10% -35.20 2.00 13.90% 17.00% 李目-景月 | | 远月-崇月 -34.00 4.20 30.30% 34.30% H跨期价 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The demand for logs is stable with a slight increase this week, but due to low prices from the foreign market in May, traders are more willing to take delivery, leading to expected port arrival pressure in June. The spot market is weak and stable, and the fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. The current futures price has rebounded, and as the 07 contract enters the delivery month, there may be differences in the futures price under the logic of delivery cost. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and as the main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, attention can be paid to the spread between months and participate in reverse spreads [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased slightly on June 8, with increases of 0.46%, 0.25%, and 0.19% respectively. The spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 contracts also changed, with increases of 1.5, 0.5, and 2.0 respectively. The basis of each contract decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign market quotes also remained stable [1]. - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost also increased slightly, with an increase of 0.73 yuan [1]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port direct - shipping volume in May increased by 39.0 (24.17%) compared to April, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships in the port increased by 8.0 (13.79%) compared to the previous period, reaching 66.0 [1]. Inventory - Weekly inventory in major ports: China's inventory decreased by 2.0 ( - 0.59%) to 339.00 million cubic meters. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.0 (1.06%) to 191.50 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 1.5 ( - 1.35%) to 111.98 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - Weekly average daily outbound volume: China's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.03 (0%) to 6.31 million cubic meters. Shandong's average daily outbound volume increased by 0.07 to 3.38 million cubic meters, while Jiangsu's decreased by 0.01 to 2.28 million cubic meters [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - Short - term market sentiment eases, and the futures market stabilizes temporarily. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. The raw material ore end is gradually loosening, and the support at the bottom is weakening. It is expected that the short - term futures market will run in a weak range, with the main contract operating between 560,000 - 620,000 yuan. [1] Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is stable, the cost support of refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply is still abundant, restricting the upward space. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan. [4] Stainless Steel - The futures market returns to the fundamental trading logic. The ore end provides some support for prices, and the raw material nickel - iron price is weakly stable. The stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan. [7] Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the ore - end growth rate is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. Otherwise, the zinc price may decline. It is recommended to short on rallies in the long - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan. [10] Alumina - In the short - term, the alumina fundamentals may turn to a relatively loose pattern, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at around 2,700 yuan. [13] Aluminum - In the short - term, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts support the aluminum price, and the short - term rebound of coal - related prices also supports the cost. However, the increase in aluminum market tariffs and the pre - emptive exports have overdrawn some future demand. It is expected that the domestic aluminum price will face pressure in the future, with the lower reference at around 19,000 yuan. [13] Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", there is no clear trend for the copper price. The strong fundamentals limit the downward space, and the weak macro - expectations limit the upward space. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan. [14] Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the slow supply - side recovery and the rebound driven by macro - sentiment. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, it is recommended to short after the sentiment stabilizes. [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,250 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,600 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 61,700 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 55,700 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. [1] Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month. Battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, up 2.33%. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, down 12.41%. Lithium carbonate demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, lithium carbonate imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%, and exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. [1] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,400 yuan/ton, down 2.04%. 1 imported nickel average price is 122,700 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. [4] Fundamental Data - In May, China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In April, refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45% week - on - week. Social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%. [4] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. [7] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 36.00 million tons, unchanged. Stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%, and exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. [7] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The premium is 300 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. [10] Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month. In April, refined zinc imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. [10] Alumina Price and Basis - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Henan) average price is 3,302 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,280 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month. [13] Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,210 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. SMM A00 aluminum premium is 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [13] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic aluminum imports were 2.8 million tons, and exports were 1.37 million tons. [13] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month. In April, electrolytic copper imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. [14] Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin average price is 263,900 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. SMM 1 tin premium is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 4.35%. [16] Fundamental Data - In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%. In May, SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. [16]