Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View The report presents the price information of various futures and spot commodities, including black series, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, as well as the basis, basis rate, and historical quantile of these products. It aims to provide investors with a comprehensive view of the market price differences between futures and spot commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - **Silicon - based Alloys**: For silicon iron (SF601), the spot price is 5500, the futures price is 2658, and the historical quantile is 73.00%. For silicon manganese (SM601), the spot price is 3199%, the futures price is 3230, and the historical quantile is 54.10% [1]. - **Steel Products**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is not provided, and the futures price of rebar (RB2601) is not given either. For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the historical quantile is 26.60%. The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3308 [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port is 864, the futures price of iron ore (I2601) is not provided, and the historical quantile is 51.00% [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coke (J2601), the spot price is 1777, the futures price is 1721, and the historical quantile is 35.17%. For coking coal (JM2601), the spot price is 1286, and the historical quantile is 49.70% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper (CU2512) is 87570, the futures price is 87010, the basis is 560, the basis rate is 0.64%, and the historical quantile is 89.37% [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum (AL2512) is 21300, the futures price is 21280, the basis is - 20, the basis rate is - 0.109%, and the historical quantile is 51.66% [1]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Information on zinc, alumina, tin, etc. is also provided, including their spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The spot price of gold (AU2512) is 921.0, the futures price is 6126, the basis is - 0.10%, the basis rate is - 0.9, and the historical quantile is 75.10% [1]. - **Silver**: The spot price of silver (AG2512) is 11410.0, the futures price is 11441.0, the basis is - 31.0, the basis rate is - 0.27%, and the historical quantile is 28.20% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Information on soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, etc. is presented, including their spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Grains and Livestock**: For corn, corn starch, pork, eggs, etc., relevant price and quantile information is provided [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: For para - xylene (PX601), PTA (TA601), ethylene glycol (EG2601), etc., the report shows their spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Other Chemicals**: Information on styrene, methanol, urea, etc. is also included, with details of their price differences and quantiles [1].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | SOSS #11日3日 | 最新值 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | -9.27 | 10.64 | 52.00% | 38.60% | H期现价差 | 3.65 | 5.26 | 80.30% | 77.90% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | | | | | | -88.60 | -1.89 | 4.9096 | 25.4096 | 11.50% | IM期现价差 | -138.47 | -17.79 | 70.00% | 次月-当月 | -9.60 | 1.80 | 45.4096 | 38.50% | | | | 季月-当月 | -32.20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Copper - After interest rate cuts and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next key macro events are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and China - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price floor. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is price - aversion sentiment, there is still significant procurement after price drops. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price floor, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. Pay attention to marginal changes in demand and US tariff conditions, with the main support level at 86,000 - 86,500 [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November with limited rebound space. The market should focus on whether large - scale production cuts will occur if prices continue to fall. - In October, the electrolytic aluminum market was strong. In November, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile with limited upside. Although high prices may suppress downstream procurement, the overall macro environment is positive. However, domestic supply is under pressure due to high operating capacity and expected import arrivals, and downstream demand is not strong enough [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and strengthened. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, squeezing enterprise profits. In November, the ADC12 price is expected to remain strong and volatile, with an operating range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, downstream demand, and policy implementation [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. Supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand has no unexpected performance, but the low overseas inventory creates a risk of a short squeeze on LME, supporting the zinc price. The domestic zinc ingot supply is relatively loose, and export windows are intermittently open. In the short - term, the zinc price will be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit its upward movement. It is expected to remain range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply may be limited this year. Demand is weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and photovoltaics, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. In the short - term, the tin price may fall due to the Fed's hawkish stance. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain strong [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is range - bound with no clear one - way trend. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for ternary materials has inventory - building needs but may not be sustainable. The market should pay attention to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. The price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be range - bound between 12,500 - 13,000 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures were strong, but the market was affected by supply - side news. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in weekly production and an unexpected improvement in downstream demand. In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to be widely volatile between 78,000 - 87,000 [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.56% to 87,570 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 10.31% to 3,966 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss improved by 89.84 yuan/ton to - 793 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 26.50% from the previous month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.38% to 21,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 44.7 yuan/ton to - 2,471 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.01 to 7.45 [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 2.90 million tons, an increase of 13.07% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 95 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, an increase of 7.48% from the previous month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43% from the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 483.90 yuan/ton to - 4,273 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, an increase of 2.85% from the previous month. In September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a decrease of 11.61% from the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.14% to 284,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 247.83% to 40 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss decreased by 1.75% to - 15,516.50 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 7.14% to - 600 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, a decrease of 15.13% from the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71% from the previous month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 121,950 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss improved by 7.21% to - 1,429 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume in the relevant period decreased by 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in 43 factories was 176.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous month, and the stainless steel export volume was 41.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.55% from the previous month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.69% to 80,220 yuan/ton, and the SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton. - The basis (based on SMM electric carbon) increased by 167.93% to 1,250 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread remained unchanged at - 1,420 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5.73% from the previous month, and the lithium carbonate demand in September was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28% from the previous month [20].

| 湘脂 | | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月3日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | | | | 王澄辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8400 | 8400 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8128 | 8168 | -40 | -0.49% | | 星差 | | Y2601 | 272 | 232 | 40 | 17.24% | | 现货基差报价 | | 江苏1月 | 01+250 | 01+250 | 0 | - | | 它車 | | | 27644 | 27644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 8700 | 8750 | =50 | -0.57% | | ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Steel apparent demand has recovered, especially for plate products, and the inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The main focus in the later stage is on coking coal. Considering the positive macro - environment, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to be supported at 3000 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively. Upward momentum requires continuous increase in apparent demand or production cuts on the supply side. The price ranges for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3400 yuan respectively. When prices rise to the upper limit of the range, long positions can be partially closed, and the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be continued [2]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts have different degrees of decline. Costs and profits vary, with some profit margins decreasing and some increasing. For example, the price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 27 yuan [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 10.0 to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, iron ore fluctuated and rose. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly. The demand side indicates that the steel mill's profit margin declined, and the pig iron output decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan. The inventory at ports continued to accumulate, and the demand for restocking by steel mills weakened. After the iron ore rebounded, the driving force weakened. The strategy is to close long positions and turn to a wait - and - see approach, with the price range referring to 760 - 830 yuan, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is the iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads of different contracts also changed. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 to 836.3 yuan, a 0.9% decrease [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4 tons, a 1.6% increase, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1 tons, a 19.5% decrease. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory increased by 231.3 to 14542.48 tons, a 1.6% increase, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot auction prices in Shanxi were strong. The coal market is in a tight supply - demand pattern. The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with the price range referring to 1200 - 1350 yuan, and the arbitrage strategy is long coking coal and short coke. For coke, the futures also fluctuated and rose last week, and the third - round price increase by coke enterprises is expected to be implemented. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the price range referring to 1700 - 1850 yuan, and the arbitrage strategy is also long coking coal and short coke [7]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal and Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 10 to 1787 yuan, a 0.54% decrease, and the coke 01 contract was at 1777 yuan [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of coking coal decreased in some areas due to safety and environmental protection reasons. The coke production remained stable, and the pig iron output decreased. The demand for coke is affected by the decline in pig iron output [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coking coal inventory in different sectors also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the post - National Day price has been weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious over - supply. The mid - term demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for shorting opportunities on rebounds. [1] - For glass, the weekend news of production line shutdown in Shahe may have a positive impact on the market sentiment. Although there is still some peak - season demand expectation in November, the industry still needs capacity clearance in the long - term. It is recommended to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities. [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on November 3, 2025. Glass 2505 decreased by 0.88%, and Glass 2509 increased by 0.08%. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 0.60%, and Soda ash 2509 increased by 0.08%. [1] - **Supply**: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 tons, and its operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%. Floating - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, while photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84%. [1] - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 65790,000 weight - cases, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 1.702 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% to 676,900 tons. [1] - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50%. [1] Group 2: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, rubber prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance on December's interest - rate cut. The prices may decline further if raw - material supply is smooth; otherwise, they are expected to oscillate between 15,000 - 15,500. [2] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Most natural rubber spot prices decreased on October 31, 2025. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16.67%. [2] - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. Tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and tire exports in September decreased by 10.65%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.20%, and natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 4.73%. [2] Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although the log futures price is at a relatively low level and the import cost provides some support, the market is still expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the weak supply - demand situation. [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most log futures prices changed slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 22.0, and the 11 - 03 spread decreased. [3] - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 33% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 19%. [3] - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 80,000 cubic meters week - on - week, and the daily log delivery volume increased by 120,000 cubic meters. [3] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market will increase supply. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most industrial silicon spot prices remained stable or increased slightly. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8.86%, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 300.00%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, the national operating rate increased by 10.86%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29%, and polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Most industrial silicon inventories decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 0.18% and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreasing by 0.33%. [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the polysilicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a high - level range - bound oscillation. Investment strategies include short - term long positions in futures, selling put options, and buying ETFs or related stocks. [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, polysilicon spot prices decreased slightly, and the futures price increased by 2.66%. The month - to - month spreads changed to varying degrees. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 3.33%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41%. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16%, silicon - wafer inventory increased by 2.49%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.79%. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In November, with few PX unit overhauls in Asia and China, but concentrated PTA unit overhauls, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak. PX absolute prices are expected to gradually face pressure. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and try to shrink the PX - SC spread [1]. - PTA: In November, there are still many PTA unit overhaul plans. With better - than - expected terminal and polyester demand in October and low polyester inventory, PTA supply - demand is expected to be slightly loose with a small inventory accumulation expectation. PTA will continue to oscillate at a low level. The strategy is to follow crude oil for unilateral trading and go short on rallies, and treat TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): In November, domestic supply is high, overseas shipments are concentrated, and inventory accumulation is expected to be high, putting pressure on the price. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and do a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 on rallies [1]. - Short Fiber: In November, supply is expected to remain high, demand may weaken seasonally, and cost support is limited. Short - fiber prices will gradually face pressure. The strategy is similar to PTA for PF12, and try to shrink the PF processing margin when it is above 1000 [1]. - Bottle Chips: In November, supply changes little, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Bottle - chip prices will follow the cost side, and the processing margin will fluctuate with raw material costs. The strategy is similar to PTA for PR, and the main - contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [1]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: In November, supply is expected to increase, demand support is weak, and prices are expected to be weakly stable. The overall trend is bearish, and it is necessary to track downstream restocking rhythm [2]. - PVC: In October, PVC prices continued to decline. In November - December, supply pressure will continue due to new capacity and high - season operation, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Methanol Industry The current market is trading the "weak reality" logic centered on high port inventory. Before the Iranian gas restriction, the weak reality will continue to be priced in. The 01 - contract inventory problem cannot be solved [3][4][5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: In November, supply is expected to be loose, demand support is limited, and although the East China port inventory decreased in October, it may increase later. Pure - benzene prices are expected to have weak driving force, but attention should be paid to unit changes [8]. - Styrene: In November, supply may slightly decrease, demand is expected to change little, and the supply - demand may be in a tight - balance state. However, high port inventory will limit price increases. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [8]. Polyolefin Industry PP supply recovery has slowed down due to unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand has recovered, but the agricultural film peak is approaching. Overall, supply will increase and demand will decrease, and there is inventory pressure on the 01 - contract. The 05 - contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse spreads [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain Price and Spread - Upstream: Brent crude oil (December) dropped 0.1% to $65.00/barrel, WTI crude oil (December) dropped 0.7% to $60.57/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.4% to $573/ton, etc. [1] - Downstream: POY150/48 price remained unchanged at 6415 yuan/ton, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged at 6690 yuan/ton, etc. [1] - PX: CFR China PX rose 0.4% to $820/ton, PX spot price (RMB) dropped 2.4% to 6753 yuan/ton [1]. - PTA: PTA East China spot price dropped 0.6% to 4535 yuan/ton, TA2601 futures rose 0.4% to 4586 yuan/ton [1]. - MEG: MEG port inventory dropped 9.7% to 52.3 million tons, MEG arrival expectation rose 273.6% to 19.8 million tons [1]. 开工率 - Asian PX开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.1%, Chinese PX开工率 rose 1.1% to 87.0%, PTA开工率 dropped 0.8% to 78.0%, etc. [1] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained at 2500 yuan/ton, East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price dropped 1.1% to 4610 yuan/ton [2]. 开工率 - Caustic soda industry开工率 rose 0.1% to 85.6%, PVC total开工率 dropped 1.9% to 73.7% [2]. 库存 - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory dropped 3.8% to 18.8 million tons, PVC upstream factory inventory dropped 7.4% to 33.4 million tons [2]. Methanol Industry Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2180 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's north line dropped 9.09% to 150 yuan/ton [3]. 库存 - Methanol enterprise inventory rose 4.36% to 37.606%, methanol port inventory dropped 0.38% to 150.6 million tons [4]. 开工率 - Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 dropped 0.09% to 75.78%, downstream external - procurement MTO device开工率 rose 7.63% to 84.06% [5]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price and Spread - CFR China pure benzene rose 0.4% to $677/ton, styrene East China spot price rose 1.1% to 6470 yuan/ton [8]. 库存 - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 14.1% to 8.50 million tons, styrene Jiangsu port inventory dropped 4.7% to 19.30 million tons [8]. 开工率 - Asian pure benzene开工率 dropped 0.5% to 78.8%, domestic styrene开工率 dropped 3.7% to 66.7% [8]. Polyolefin Industry Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6968 yuan/ton, down 0.99% from the previous day, PP2601 closed at 6590 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day [10]. 库存 - PE enterprise inventory dropped 19.16% to 41.6 million tons, PP enterprise inventory dropped 6.80% to 59.5 million tons [10]. 开工率 - PE device开工率 dropped 0.73% to 80.9%, PP device开工率 rose 1.5% to 77.1% [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. Each variety shows different trends in total positions and changes in the top 20 seats [1]. 3. Summary by Variety IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Change**: On October 31, the total position of the IF variety increased by 397 hands, while the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 390 hands [5]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 39,908 hands. CITIC Construction Investment Futures had the most long - position increase (1,063 hands), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease (1,674 hands) [6]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 44,636 hands. GF Futures had the most short - position increase (979 hands), and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease (1,383 hands) [8]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Change**: On October 31, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 2,436 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 2,898 hands [11]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 13,239 hands. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase (371 hands), and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease (1,366 hands) [12]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 14,181 hands. Everbright Futures had the most short - position increase (1,006 hands), and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease (1,668 hands) [13]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Change**: On October 31, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 5,746 hands, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 2,520 hands [18]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 37,447 hands. SDIC Futures had the most long - position increase (300 hands), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease (3,710 hands) [19]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 42,869 hands. Bank of China Futures had the most short - position increase (555 hands), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease (2,668 hands) [21]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Change**: On October 31, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 6,696 hands, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 3,849 hands [24]. - **Top 20 Long - Position Seats**: Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 52,305 hands. Galaxy Futures had the most long - position increase (757 hands), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease (1,726 hands) [24]. - **Top 20 Short - Position Seats**: CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 73,631 hands. UBS Futures had the most short - position increase (1,578 hands), and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease (1,443 hands) [25].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Supply-wise, rain in the producing areas continued until the end of the month, causing raw material prices to rise, which provided short-term support for rubber prices. In the long run, there was still an expectation of increased supply. Demand-wise, semi-steel tire companies maintained stable production, while some all-steel tire companies had rising inventories. Overnight, the Fed's hawkish stance on the December interest rate cut pressured rubber prices in the short term. If raw material supply increased smoothly, rubber prices might decline further; otherwise, they were expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On October 30, the price of Yunnan Guofu standard rubber (SCRWF) was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The basis of the whole process was -600 yuan/ton, up 31.43%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. The non-standard price difference was -450 yuan/ton, up 5.26%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 53.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.19%. The FOB intermediate price of glue in the international market was 55.50 Thai baht/kg, up 0.91%. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The price of natural rubber glue in Xishuangbanna was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 2.17%. The mainstream market price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: On October 30, the 9 - 1 spread was 150 yuan/ton, up 3.45% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was -90 yuan/ton, down 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread was -60 yuan/ton, up 7.69% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production was 458,800 tons, down 0.43% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 189,000 tons, down 4.30%. India's production was 500,000 tons, up 11.11%. China's production data was not provided. The weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of all-steel tires was 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points. In August, domestic tire production was 102.954 million pieces, up 9.10%. In September, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 5.63 million pieces, down 10.65%. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber was 595,900 tons, up 14.41%. In September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 740,000 tons, up 12.12%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 13,327 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was -572 yuan/ton, down 35.22%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 16,414 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The daily production profit of dry rubber (RSS3) in Thailand was 2,186 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 30, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 432,229 tons, down 1.20% from the previous day. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 42,640 tons, up 6.28%. The出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 4.94%, down 1.50 percentage points. The warehousing rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 11.61%, up 1.99 percentage points. The出库 rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 12.69%, up 3.11 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The log futures market was under pressure due to a significant increase in supply at the port, insufficient downstream orders, and falling prices at surrounding ports. However, the relatively low futures price and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downside space. Overall, the log futures market was expected to remain weakly volatile [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 30, the prices of log futures contracts LG2511, LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 763.5, 786, 802, and 818.5 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with changes of -1.17%, -0.13%, -0.31%, and -0.12% from the previous day. The 11 - 01 spread was -22.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan from the previous day. The 11 - 03 spread was -38.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 11 - contract basis was -3.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 9 yuan from the previous day. The 01 - contract basis was -26 yuan/cubic meter, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Rizhao Port were 710, 760, and 880 yuan/cubic meter respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of 4A small, medium, and large radiata pine at Taicang Port were 710, 770, and 820 yuan/cubic meter respectively, with the small and medium radiata pine prices down 1.39% and 1.28% respectively. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 115 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 125 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: On October 30, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.100, up 0.003 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length allowance, was 802.74 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.30 yuan from the previous day [3]. - **Supply**: In September, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 1.766 million cubic meters, up 6.00% from August. The number of departing ships was 46, up 4.55% from August [3]. - **Inventory: Main Port Inventory**: As of October 24, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.84 million cubic meters, down 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 1.865 million cubic meters, up 1.03%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 786,900 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. - **Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume**: As of October 24, the average daily outbound volume in China was 64,400 cubic meters, up 2% from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34,200 cubic meters, up 4%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,300 cubic meters, down 4% [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View For soda ash, the macro - level leaders' meeting had a negative impact on the commodity market, and the previous rebound ended abruptly. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. The market was still under pressure, and investors were advised to wait for a rebound to short. For glass, the macro - level situation also had a negative impact. The spot sales improved recently, driving the futures market to stabilize and rebound. However, the deep - processing orders were still weak, and the industry needed to clear excess capacity in the long run. Investors were advised to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities by monitoring the spot market [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China were 1,130, 1,250, 1,120, and 1,210 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,243 and 1,327 yuan/ton respectively, down 2.81% and 2.21% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -113 yuan/ton, up 24.16% from the previous day [4]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, the spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China were 1,300, 1,250, 1,250, and 950 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 were 1,324 and 1,382 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.71% and 1.34% from the previous day. The 05 - contract basis was -24 yuan/ton, up 48.94% from the previous day [4]. - **Supply**: On October 31, the soda ash operating rate was 86.89%, down 1.72 percentage points from October 24. The weekly soda ash production was 757,600 tons, down 1.71%. The daily melting volume of float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 88,540 tons, down 0.84%. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 19.50 yuan, down 2.50% [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the glass factory warehouse inventory was 65.79 million weight boxes, up 4.72% from October 24. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory was 170,200 tons, up 2.54%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 676,900 tons, down 3.18%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories was 20.4 days, unchanged [4]. - **Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year)**: In the current period, the new construction area was -0.09%, up 0.09 percentage points from the previous period. The construction area was 0.05%, down 2.43 percentage points. The completion area was -0.22%, down 0.03 percentage points. The sales area was -6.55%, down 6.50 percentage points [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose first and then fell back 15 yuan/ton, closing at 9,155 yuan/ton. The increase in weekly supply and the decrease in demand might lead to inventory accumulation, putting pressure on prices. The opening of the arbitrage window in East China might bring hedging opportunities. The rise in coking coal prices might drive up the futures price of industrial silicon. Overall, the price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: On October 30, the price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon was 9,320 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The basis (based on oxygen - enriched SI5530) was 295 yuan/ton, up 63.89%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The basis (based on SI4210) was -255 yuan/ton, up 20.31%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 0.57%. The basis (in Xinjiang) was 385 yuan/ton, up 19.70% [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: On October 30, the 2511 - 2512 spread was -385 yuan/ton, down 2.60% from the previous day. The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 200.00%. The 2601 - 2602 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 66.67%. The 2602 - 2603 spread was 10 yuan/ton, up 128.57%. The 2603 - 2604 spread was -10 yuan/ton, down 133.33% [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production was 420,800 tons, up 9.10% from the previous month. Xinjiang's production was 203,200 tons, up 19.78%. Yunnan's production was 58,100 tons, up 2.41%. Sichuan's production was 52,900 tons, down 1.49%. The national operating rate was 61.94%, up 10.86 percentage points. Xinjiang's operating rate was 74.00%, up 22.09 percentage points. Yunnan's operating rate was 41.71%, down 11.99 percentage points. Sichuan's operating rate was 44.94%, up 1.47 percentage points. The production of organic silicon DMC was 210,200 tons, down 5.78%. The production of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, down 1.29%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,000 tons, up 7.48%. The export volume of industrial silicon was 70,200 tons, down 8.36% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of October 30, the factory warehouse inventory in Xinjiang was 108,100 tons, down 0.28% from the previous day. The factory warehouse inventory in Yunnan was 34,600 tons, up 1.47%. The factory warehouse inventory in Sichuan was 25,200 tons, unchanged. The social inventory was 558,000 tons, down 0.18%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 237,100 tons, up 0.15%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory was 321,000 tons, down 0.42% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton to 52,300 yuan/ton, and the futures price fluctuated and fell 40 yuan/ton, closing at 54,950 yuan/ton. With the shutdown of production capacity in Southwest China, the production in November was expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. The weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased by 3 - 4%. Although the silicon wafer production schedule increased, the downstream procurement decreased, leading to an increase in inventory. Currently, polysilicon prices were mainly in high - level consolidation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies, production control, and whether there would be an increase in downstream orders. Since the futures price was higher than the spot average price, further significant price increases would depend on the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises. Also, the implementation of follow - up measures or policies should be monitored [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On October 30, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 52,300 yuan/kg, down 0.10

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Supply is at a high level, with weak demand support in the short - term due to shrinking industry profits in downstream alumina. However, there may be demand support in the medium - to long - term as the procurement cycle approaches and alumina has more planned production in Q1 next year [1]. - PVC: Supply returns to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resume production. Domestic downstream demand remains weak, and cost provides bottom - line support. The market is expected to be lackluster during the peak season [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is generally stable, and demand support has strengthened. It is in a situation of high short - term supply and demand but with a weak overall outlook. Cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted [2]. - PTA: Spot basis is weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure due to factors such as the resumption of some device loads and the decline in oil prices [2]. - MEG: Port inventory decreases, but the upward driving force weakens. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly, but the overall supply - demand drive is limited. The price rebound is expected to face pressure, but it has relatively stronger support at low inventory levels [2]. - Bottle - chips: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, it mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Domestic supply is loose, and demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand expectation is still loose, and price drive is limited. It follows oil prices and styrene fluctuations [5]. - Styrene: Under inventory and profit pressure, supply pressure still exists, and demand support is limited. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The inland market has price inversion problems. The MTO load decreases, and demand support is insufficient. The price is expected to decline in the short - term, and attention should be paid to port de - stocking and overseas gas - limiting expectations [8]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply recovery slows down due to more unplanned maintenance. PE: Supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has warmed up, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Some PVC spot and futures prices changed slightly, and caustic soda prices were mostly stable [1]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry and some regional开工 rates increased slightly, while PVC total开工 rate decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Caustic soda downstream开工 rates were mostly stable, and PVC downstream制品开工 rates increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: Both caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased to some extent [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream prices**: PX, ethylene, and other prices changed slightly, and oil prices increased slightly [2]. - **Downstream product prices and cash flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as FDY, bottle - chips, and short - fibers changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **开工 rates**: The综合开工 rate of polyester was stable, and the开工 rates of some segments such as PTA and MEG changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream prices and spreads**: Prices of crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and spreads also changed [5]. - **Benzene - related prices and spreads**: Benzene and styrene prices decreased, and spreads changed [5]. - **Downstream cash flows**: Cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene improved [5]. - **Inventory**: Both pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [5]. - **开工 rates**:开工 rates of some segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **开工 rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工 rates decreased slightly, and some downstream开工 rates increased while others decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Both PE and PP inventories decreased [10]. - **开工 rates**: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream加权开工率 increased. PP装置开工率 decreased, and some downstream开工 rates increased [10].