| | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2025/10/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/9/29 | 2025/9/30 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4590 | 4535 | (55.00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4295 | 4275 | (20.00) | 现货资讯: | | PTA收盘价 | 4652 | 4594 | (58.00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤主力期货价格跌50至6276。现货 | | MEG收盘价 | 4224 | 4207 | (17.00) | 市场:涤纶短纤生产工厂价格稳定,贸易商价格 | | | | | | 偏弱下滑,下游按需采买,场内成交分化。 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6480 | 6465 | (15.00) | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | 短纤基差 | 110 | 129 | 19.00 | 场价格在6250-6550现款现汇含税自提,华 ...

ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/10/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/10/8 | 4031.06 | 48. 63 | 4053. 40 | 48. 47 | 874. 40 | 10918. 00 | 871. 00 | 10820.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | ...

8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | 设资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | ITC国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 醒教据 日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/09 | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/30 | 行情评述 | 指标 | 涨跌值 | 2025/09/29 | 晋城无烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | NY ZIF | 川渝液化气 | 3760.00 | 3760. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际天然气 | 11. 09 | 10.9 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | C == 体张告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上达信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者扬胜的投资目标。 免 责 影影《剧需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，很比投资，责任自负。本报告仅向待定客户推进，未经画贸期货授权许可，任何引用，转载以及向 UH 第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权，我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 ll C 国贸期货 LET 500 FR 2 1 2 1 国贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 司不要】 影教据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 纸浆价格数据 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月30日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5142 | -0 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/9/30 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 上证50 1899. 69 70. 63 2973. 0417 1. 09 4620. 0528 沪深300 6933. 95 274. 36 1. 54 7497. 8308 4195. 35 中证1000 1. 36 258. 68 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认洁期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 7. 41 5. 10 2. 31 7.14 0. 70 0. 45 4. 20 2. 94 沪深300 17. 60 11. 38 6. 22 0. 55 17. 86 9. 31 8. 55 0. 92 13. 72 中证1000 30. 66 17. 05 0. 80 27. 35 13. 61 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that CM4 raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK kept the freight rate for the second week of October at 1400, which increased the expectation of stopping the decline. However, the confidence in price increases gradually declined, and there was a reduction in positions and a price drop before the holiday [7]. - In late September, shipping companies collectively lowered prices to compete for goods, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 US dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU increase for the second half of October. But with the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. Subsequently, European routes will focus on stabilizing and supporting prices during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and it is difficult for shipping companies' announced price increases to materialize [8]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct a long - short spread trade between the October and December contracts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1115, 1087, 1460, 921, 2385, and 971 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 6.97%, - 2.93%, - 10.76%, - 22.80%, - 6.73%, and - 7.70% compared to the previous values. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1120 and 1485 respectively, with declines of - 6.12% and - 9.34% [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1452.7, 1595.0, 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, and 1253.0 respectively, with declines of - 2.08%, - 1.37%, - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, and - 1.23% compared to the previous values [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 930, 530, 29314, 20683, 8852, and 9110 respectively. The position changes are - 8, - 12, - 3117, - 1012, 84, and 11 respectively [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 641.3, 89.3, and 503.3 respectively, with changes of - 3.3, - 2.7, and - 5.1 compared to the previous values [5]. 3.2 Market News and Analysis - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to curb the decline in freight rates. On the east - west trans - Pacific routes, the spot freight rate has fallen below the fixed contract price signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize the continuously falling spot freight rate. The market is unusually weak before the Golden Week this year [6]. - The spot prices this week: GEMINI in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The market FMK freight rate center in late September was at 1500 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints -节前市场成交量萎缩，避险情绪升温，股指短期向上突破概率降低，预计延续震荡走势；节后市场关注点转向增量政策，包括重要会议与政策动向，市场对年内降息有期待，促消费与稳地产政策蓄势待发；建议节前控制股指仓位，节后关注政策或资金面变化带来的突破机会 [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rates and Bond Yields - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.23bp change, DR007 at 1.59 with a 3.17bp change, GC001 at 1.34 with a -2.00bp change, GC007 at 1.49 with a -38.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.36 with a 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.62 with a 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.75bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 2886 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 481 billion yuan [3] Market Liquidity Outlook - This week, 5166 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2405 billion and 2761 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively. Additionally, 3000 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase agreements will mature on Tuesday [4] - The central bank governor said that China's monetary policy adheres to self - orientation and balances internal and external factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [4] Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.54% to 4620, the SSE 50 rose 1.09% to 2973, the CSI 500 rose 1.51% to 7351, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.36% to 7498. The trading volume of the two markets reached 21615 billion yuan, an increase of 146 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with energy metals, securities, batteries, and precious metals rising significantly, while the education sector led the decline [5] Stock Index Futures Performance - IF contracts: IF当月 rose 1.8%, IF volume increased by 37.2% to 166084, and IF open interest increased by 93 to 284149 [5] - IH contracts: IH当月 rose 1.0%, IH volume increased by 77.5% to 85621, and IH open interest increased by 18.6% to 113877 [5] - IC contracts: IC当月 rose 1.9%, IC volume increased by 17.9% to 160425, and IC open interest increased by 1.7% to 256603 [5] - IM contracts: IM当月 rose 1.7%, IM volume increased by 17.1% to 284619, and IM open interest increased by 0.7% to 367256 [5] Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - IF升贴水: 0.00% for next - month contract, 1.56% for current - month contract, 1.51% for current - quarter contract, 1.88% for next - quarter contract [7] - IH升贴水: - 0.65% for next - month contract, - 0.73% for current - month contract, - 0.45% for current - quarter contract, - 0.34% for next - quarter contract [7] - IC升贴水: 2.14% for next - month contract, 6.85% for current - month contract, 7.26% for current - quarter contract, 8.42% for next - quarter contract [7] - IM升贴水: 3.69% for next - month contract, 8.64% for current - month contract, 9.64% for current - quarter contract, 10.85% for next - quarter contract [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PTA market shows signs of recovery in processing fees due to improved demand, delayed new plant commissioning, and some companies' production cut for price protection. The polyester load remains high without significant inventory accumulation, indicating optimistic market demand, especially in exports. The promotion by mainstream factories has led to a small peak in pre - National Day stockpiling. In a low - processing - fee and anti - involution environment, the PTA operating rate may further improve. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports continues to decline, and the port is expected to continue destocking. Although overseas imports are expected to decline, domestic plant commissioning keeps the price under pressure, and coal - based ethylene glycol plants are also resuming production. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 491.3 yuan/barrel on 2025/9/26 to 492.6 yuan/barrel on 2025/9/29, up 1.3 yuan [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 814 to 817, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 206 to 209 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4646 yuan/ton to 4652 yuan/ton, the spot price remained at 4590 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 222.5 yuan/ton to 200.3 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 273.5 yuan/ton to 267.3 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased by 4600 to 28114 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4213 yuan/ton to 4224 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 135.48 yuan/ton to - 133.86 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 price increased from 4294 to 4295 [2]. - **Industry Operating Rate**: The PX operating rate remained at 85.57%, the PTA operating rate increased from 77.23% to 78.67%, the MEG operating rate remained at 62.62%, and the polyester load remained at 88.74% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price increased from 6605 to 6650, and its cash flow increased from - 8 to 37. FDY150D/96F price increased from 6790 to 6825, and its cash flow increased from - 323 to - 288. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7870, and its cash flow remained at 57. The long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 70% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480, and its cash flow decreased from 232 to 217. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 60% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chip price increased from 5745 to 5750, and its cash flow increased from 32 to 37. The chip sales rate increased from 38% to 62% [2]. Device Maintenance Two PTA plants in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads due to weather, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PTA plants are gradually returning, and domestic PTA production is rising. PTA profit is still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissioning. Previously, due to pessimistic demand and new plant commissioning expectations, PTA processing fees were low. Recently, demand has improved, new plant commissioning has been postponed, and some enterprises have cut production to maintain prices, so PTA processing fees show signs of recovery [2] - Polyester load remains above 90%, but there is no significant inventory accumulation, indicating that market demand is still optimistic at low prices, especially export demand. Promotions by mainstream factories have led to a small peak in National Day备货. Under the environment of low processing fees and market anti - involution, PTA operating rate may further improve [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Spot and Futures Price Changes - PTA spot price remained at 4590 from September 26th to September 29th, 2025; MEG inner - market price increased from 4294 to 4295; PTA closing price rose from 4646 to 4652; MEG closing price increased from 4213 to 4224 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480; short - fiber basis increased from 102 to 110; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 2 to 22 [2] Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production plants is stable, and the price of traders is in a sideways shock. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and on - site transactions are limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber varies in different regions [2] - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures first fell and then rose, supply offers were mixed, downstream terminals mainly watched, and market transactions were scarce [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - The weekly load of direct - spinning short - fiber decreased from 93.90% to 94.40%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 45.00% to 52.00%; the weekly opening rate of polyester yarn remained at 63.50%; the weekly load index of recycled cotton - type increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The futures prices of steel were slightly weak on Monday, with spot prices following the decline. Although the trading volume remained above 100,000 tons, speculative demand was lacking. As the long - holiday approached and restocking neared completion, the spot trading activity cooled further. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are favorable for liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. At the industry level, the peak - season demand for steel was flat, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials was marginal, unable to form a strong upward drive. With the approaching holiday, restocking is almost over, and cost support has temporarily ended. High steel production raises concerns about the future market. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side and reduce positions during the holiday [2][7]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The fundamentals of silicon iron and manganese silicon are concerning. Silicon iron has high supply, weak demand, and neutral inventory, while manganese silicon has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term alloy plant profits are near the break - even point, and the motivation to maintain production is high. Before the holiday, they mainly follow the black - metal sector. The weak fundamentals will suppress price increases. Industry self - discipline is not optimistic, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely. With the arrival of the peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), the terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace starts is accumulating, which may directly impact the demand for these two alloys [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of coke price increases has been partially implemented, but the market trading sentiment has weakened due to the decline in the futures market. The coking - coal auction in the production areas has mostly fallen. The futures market of coking coal and coke has been weak, possibly due to concerns about weak terminal demand after the holiday. Although the fundamentals of steel are improving marginally before the holiday, the market is worried about the continuation of weak terminal demand after the holiday and the weakening of cost support. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and sell on rallies for hedging [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The peak - season demand for steel has been flat, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight de - stocking, mainly due to the reduction in steel production. The flat demand cannot drive a strong rebound. High iron - water production throughout the year may lead to an oversupply of steel in the second half of the year if production is not reduced after the holiday. The support from inventory rotation for ore prices will disappear after the holiday, and the expected increase in iron - ore supply from Simandou restricts the price ceiling. The fundamentals of the black - metal market are expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, but the downward pressure is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices and Changes**: On September 29, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.31%); HC2605 at 3298 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan (-1.17%); J2605 at 1790 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan (-3.89%); JM2605 at 1239.5 yuan/ton, down 64.5 yuan (-4.95%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%); HC2601 at 3289 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan (-1.23%); J2601 at 1647 yuan/ton, down 71.5 yuan (-4.16%); JM2601 at 1154 yuan/ton, down 60.5 yuan (-4.98) [1]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: On September 29, RB2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 9 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; J2601 - 2605 was 21.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 85.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan [1]. - **Spreads, Ratios, and Profits**: On September 29, the coil - to - rebar spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.95, up 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.43, up 0.01; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 77.85 yuan/ton, up 15.65 yuan; the coking on - paper profit was 112.18 yuan/ton, up 11.03 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Spot Prices**: On September 29, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [1]. - **Other Spot Prices**: On September 29, the price of Qingdao Port's PB fines was 779 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; Qingdao Port's super - special powder was 695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Ganqimaodu's coking coal concentrate was 730 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1285 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Tangshan's Mongolian No. 5 coking coal concentrate was 1422 yuan/ton, down [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29, the basis of HC was 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of RB was 123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of J was - 74.37 yuan/ton, down 45.5 yuan; the basis of JM was 161 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan [1].