Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, soybean oil [1] - Bearish: Industrial silicon [1] - Neutral: Most other industries are rated as "oscillating" [1] Core Views of the Report - Policy aims to achieve a "slow bull" in the stock market, with short - term oscillations in the stock index and long - term opportunities for long - position layout. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank [1]. - Different metals and commodities have various trends. For example, copper prices are in high - level oscillations, aluminum prices are falling from high levels, and nickel prices are in high - level oscillations with supply concerns and inventory constraints [1]. - Precious metals are supported by geopolitical and trade tensions, but the suspension of key - mineral tariff hikes by the US may cause price fluctuations. Platinum and palladium are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term, and a long - term strategy of buying platinum and shorting palladium can be considered [1]. - In the agricultural and energy - chemical sectors, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index: Policy cools market speculation, with short - term oscillations and long - term opportunities for long - position layout [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Downstream demand is under pressure, and with the suspension of key - mineral tariffs by the US, short - term copper - hoarding concerns are alleviated, and prices are in high - level oscillations [1] - Aluminum: Limited industrial drivers and weakening macro sentiment lead to aluminum prices falling from high levels [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand in the domestic market, and prices are under pressure, but they are near the cost line and expected to oscillate [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but inventory pressure is evident, and prices fluctuate within a range due to repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The 2026 RKAB target of Indonesian nickel ore is about 260 million wet tons, but the supply is still tight. Global nickel inventory accumulation may restrict price increases, and short - term prices are in high - level oscillations. Short - term long - position trading on dips is recommended, but over - chasing highs should be avoided [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw - material nickel iron is rising, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production in January is increasing. Futures prices are in high - level oscillations, and short - term long - position trading on dips is recommended [1] - Tin: Short - term macro sentiment is repeated, and prices have corrected. However, due to the fragile supply of tin ore, there is still upward momentum, and low - buying opportunities should be monitored [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions boost prices, and they are expected to be strong in the short term, but price fluctuations may be intense due to the suspension of key - mineral tariff hikes by the US [1] - Platinum and palladium: Geopolitical and trade tensions support prices, but the suspension of key - mineral tariff hikes by the US may suppress price drivers. Short - term wide - range oscillations are expected, and a long - term strategy of buying platinum and shorting palladium can be considered [1] Industrial and Building Materials - Industrial silicon: Production increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the planned production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreases [1] - Polysilicon: It is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a battery export rush with a large increase in price [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient [1] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing highs is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and large fluctuations after a significant increase require caution [1] - Glass: Short - term market sentiment is warming, and supply - demand provides support, but medium - term supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure [1] - Soda ash: It follows glass prices, and medium - term supply - demand is looser, with prices under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The purchasing rhythm of major consuming countries is starting, production areas are expected to reduce production and inventory, and with the possibility of biodiesel themes fermenting, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [1] - Soybean oil: It has a strong fundamental situation, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended, and a strategy of buying soybean oil and shorting other oils can be considered [1] - Rapeseed oil: Tariff - adjustment expectations for Canadian rapeseed and customs - clearance expectations for Australian rapeseed are bearish, but it is difficult to decline smoothly, and it is recommended to wait and see due to large recent price fluctuations [1] - Cotton: There is strong domestic new - crop production expectation, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream operation rates are low, but yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is rigid restocking demand. Future factors such as the central government's No.1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand should be monitored [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply, and there is a consensus among short - sellers. If prices continue to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous short - term fundamental drivers, and changes in the capital side should be monitored [1] - Corn: The grain - selling progress in Northeast China is fast, port inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before the festival. Short - term spot prices are firm, and futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - Soybeans: As the Brazilian harvest progresses, the CNF premium reflects the selling pressure of a bumper harvest. Dry weather in Argentina should be monitored, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Pulp: Affected by the decline in the commodity macro - environment, prices have fallen but remain within the oscillation range. Due to large short - term commodity - sentiment fluctuations, it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: Spot prices have shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the further decline in futures prices is limited. However, the January overseas offer has slightly decreased, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors, with prices expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Hogs: Spot prices are gradually stabilizing, demand provides support, and production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports affect prices [1] - Fuel oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent and follow crude - oil prices. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, with high asphalt profits [1] - Shanghai rubber: Raw - material cost support is strong, the futures - spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and mid - stream inventory has increased significantly [1] - BR rubber: There is a phased correction, high - price spot transactions are blocked, the cost of butadiene has strong bottom - support, overseas cracking - unit production capacity is cleared, and the domestic market is expected to benefit in the long term. The market will return to fundamental - driven in the short term [1] - PTA: The PX market has risen rapidly, and the market is expected to tighten in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high gasoline spread supports aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: Two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. Prices have rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and downstream polyester operation rates are above 90% [1] - Short - fiber: Prices continue to closely follow cost fluctuations [1] - Styrene: The supply - demand fundamentals have improved, futures prices have rebounded rapidly, the Asian market has stabilized, and the price difference between styrene and benzene has widened, with inventory being depleted [1] - Urea: Export sentiment has eased, there is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and cost [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor. The cancellation of export tax - rebates may lead to a rush to export, and differential electricity prices in the northwest may force out inefficient production capacity [1] - LPG: The February CP is expected to rise, the cost of imported gas is strongly supported, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled, inventory is being depleted, domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is in deep loss, and the heating market is expected to start [1] Others - Container shipping on the European route: It is expected to peak in mid - January, pre - festival restocking demand still exists, and airlines are still cautious in their trial re - flights [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current EC2602 contract is supported by pre - holiday shipments, while the BC2604 contract declines due to negotiation expectations. The core drivers are the resumption of Red Sea routes led by Maersk, combined with a capacity growth rate exceeding demand. The long - term pressure of oversupply remains unchanged, and short - term exports of photovoltaic and battery products provide marginal support. In the short term, the market is volatile, and the far - month contracts are suppressed by the resumption expectations. It's necessary to closely monitor the route recovery rhythm and shipping company pricing to seize interval opportunities [9]. - The strategy is to focus on the opportunity of short - allocating off - season contracts [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The present value of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) comprehensive index is 1574, with a previous value of 1647 and a decline of 4.45%. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) has a present value of 1210, a previous value not clearly given in a comparable way, and an increase of 1.25%. For specific routes, SCFI - US West has a present value of 2194, down 1.08% from the previous value of 2218; SCFIS - US West is 1305, down 1.36% from 1323; SCFI - US East is 3163, up 1.12% from 3128; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1676, down 2.50% from 1719; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1954, down 0.10% from 1956; and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2983, down 7.70% from 3232 [6]. 3.2 EC Spot Price - OCEAN Alliance: CMA CGM quotes 3693/FEU with relatively firm prices. COSCO Shipping quotes 3325/FEU. Evergreen Marine quotes 3030 - 3130/FEU, about 400 lower than before. Orient Overseas quotes 2880/FEU, 150 lower than before. The overall FAK central range is about 32700 - 3300/FEU. - GEMINI Alliance: Maersk's Week 4 (1.20 - 1.26) price is 1695/2730 (20'/40'), dropping to 1510/2420 in Week 5, and non - European base rates are as low as 2400/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd quotes 1585/2535 (20'/40'), with the February quote remaining unchanged. The overall FAK central range is about 2400 - 2700/FEU. - PREMIER Alliance + MSC: MSC quotes 1580/2640 (20'/40'). Ocean Network Express (ONE) quotes 1680/2635 (20'/40'), with the same price in February. Yang Ming Marine Transport quotes about 2600/FEU with relatively stable prices. HMM quotes 1433/2436 (20'/40') with a relatively low price. The overall FAK central range is about 2400 - 2650/FEU [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced that starting from February 1st, he will impose a 10% tariff on Denmark, the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and Norway due to disputes over Greenland with relevant countries, and the tariff will be raised to 25% on June 1st. - Trump's advisors are impatient with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's objections and continue to advance the second stage of the "Gaza Peace Plan". Netanyahu issued a sharply worded statement opposing the list of members of the Gaza "Implementation Committee" released by the White House on Friday. - The new Sokhna container terminal in Egypt is put into operation, with Hutchison Ports, CMA CGM, and COSCO Shipping as the core shareholders. The support from the Ocean Alliance is expected to increase, and RSCT No.1 has become the most important and newly - launched modern large - scale container terminal on the Red Sea side of Egypt [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is optimistic about the medium - term supply - demand pattern of PTA, weakening the impact of short - term polyester production cuts, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the maintenance of a 750,000 - ton polyester plant has a negative impact on the PTA spot basis [2]. - The PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds and improved production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reformer maintenance. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, but the decline in domestic demand and polyester factory production cuts have a negative feedback on PTA [2]. - Overseas MEG plant maintenance plans are increasing, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and the increase in new plant production, the MEG price lacks effective support. However, it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 437.4 yuan/barrel on January 19, 2026, to 437.0 yuan/barrel on January 20, 2026, a decrease of 0.40 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price increased from 1851.4 yuan/ton to 1968.3 yuan/ton, a rise of 116.91 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5824 to 1.6198, an increase of 0.0373 [2]. - **PTA**: The main - contract futures price increased from 5030 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, a rise of 114.0 yuan/ton; the spot - market processing margin increased from 321.4 yuan/ton to 324.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.0 yuan/ton; the on - paper processing margin increased from 381.4 yuan/ton to 498.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 117.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The main - contract futures price dropped from 3755 yuan/ton to 3674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.0 yuan/ton; the main - contract basis increased from - 120 to - 113, a rise of 7.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained at 85.82% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Remained at 75.63% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Dropped from 60.58% to 60.49%, a decrease of 0.09% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Dropped from 85.83% to 84.69%, a decrease of 1.14% [2]. 3.3 Product Sales Conditions - **Polyester Filament**: The sales rate of POY, FDY, and DTY remained at 0.0% in price change; the sales rate of polyester filament decreased from 50% to 46%, a decrease of 4% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 57% to 92%, a rise of 35% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright polyester chips remained unchanged; the sales rate increased from 84% to 174%, a rise of 90% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to start planned maintenance tomorrow. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market continues to be strong, driven by speculative funds advancing long positions in 2026. Current supporting factors have exceeded pure financial drivers. Gasoline blending profit decline makes the reforming unit close to break - even between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. PX - MX spread has widened to over $150, and PX - naphtha spread reached $370, improving PX production economy. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high operation, domestic demand declines, and polyester factory production cuts have a negative feedback on PTA. PTA consumption remains high, but mainstream polyester plants conduct early overhauls and sell PTA raw materials, causing the basis to weaken rapidly [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Indicators Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price increased from 4970 to 5015, a change of 45; PTA closing price rose from 5030 to 5144, a change of 114 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 3637 to 3601, a change of - 36; MEG closing price dropped from 3755 to 3674, a change of - 81 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained at 6450, with no change; short - fiber basis decreased from 67 to 61, a change of - 6 [2] - 3 - 4 spread increased from 44 to 42, a change of 2; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5250, with no change; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber remained at 1200, with no change [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6020 to 6044, a change of 24; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6020 to 6044, a change of 24; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6120 to 6144, a change of 24; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 805 to 810, a change of 5 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 552 to 550, a change of - 2 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10570, with no change; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained at 4120, with no change [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16700, with no change; cotton 328 price decreased from 15440 to 15390, a change of - 50 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1587 to 1606, a change of 19 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7165 to 7150, a change of - 15; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 497 to 456, a change of - 41 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained at 7760, with no change [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 60.00% to 102.00%, a change of 42.00% [3] - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained at 66.00%, with no change [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained at 51.10%, with no change [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. Future attention should be paid to the movement of platinum inventory. - Medium - to long - term, with a supply - demand gap for platinum and a tendency towards supply relaxation for palladium, the strategy can focus on low - position allocation of platinum or the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - **Domestic Futures and Spot Prices**: Platinum futures' main contract closing price rose 0.69% to 619.35 yuan/gram, while spot platinum (99.95%) dropped 2.63% to 592 yuan/gram. Palladium futures' main contract closing price rose 2.52% to 490 yuan/gram, and spot palladium (99.95%) fell 0.55% to 455.5 yuan/gram [4]. - **International Spot and Futures Prices**: London spot platinum rose 1.29% to 2380.82 dollars/ounce, and London spot palladium rose 2.78% to 1847.466 dollars/ounce. NYMEX platinum rose 0.81% to 2381.2 dollars/ounce, and NYMEX palladium rose 1.87% to 1882 dollars/ounce [4]. - **Exchange Rate and Price Differences**: The dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 0.06% to 7.0006. The price difference between Guangdong platinum and London platinum decreased 18.33% to 13.83 yuan/gram, and the price difference between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum decreased 1.77% to 13.73 yuan/gram [4]. Ratio and Inventory - **Platinum - Palladium Ratio**: The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2870, down 0.0230 from the previous value. The ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2887, down 0.0189 from the previous value [5]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory increased 0.01% to 664393 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory decreased 1.84% to 207020 ounces [5]. Position - **Total Position and Net Long Position**: NYMEX total position of platinum decreased 0.90% to 78337, and non - commercial net long position of platinum decreased 2.85% to 17594. NYMEX total position of palladium increased 0.69% to 19483, and non - commercial net long position of palladium increased 111.57% to 579 [5]. Macro - influencing Factors - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on 8 European countries due to the Greenland issue has increased geopolitical and trade tensions, raising market risk demand and supporting platinum and palladium prices. - The US decision to postpone imposing import tariffs on key minerals and seek agreement negotiations has alleviated the tariff risk for platinum and palladium. Once the tariff risk decreases, platinum and palladium inventory may shift from the US to non - US regions, potentially easing the tight spot situation and suppressing the upward space of platinum and palladium prices in the short term [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The spot market for steel products has cooled down, and attention should be paid to basis trading opportunities. The futures prices were weak on Tuesday, and the spot trading volume decreased. The impact of weather on the demand for building materials is becoming more obvious, and the seasonal drop in building material demand is expected to continue. The support from demand for the market is relatively limited. However, during the off - season around the Spring Festival, the price pressure is not large. At present, steel mills have profits and the willingness to resume production, while traders are not very willing to conduct open - position winter storage and prefer basis trading. The probability of an increase in hot metal production is rising, and there is support at low prices. The market has abundant funds but cautious confidence, and there are opportunities for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage in hot - rolled coils [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been oscillating recently. The supply side has occasional rumors of fluctuations. The demand side is weak as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are poor, and the pressure to adjust hot metal production downward is high. The overall demand is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply side has high production despite poor profits of alloy plants, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains. Although there are policy benefits and cost support, the market is likely to fall under pressure [3]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke has cooled down. The first round of coke price increase has been shelved. The market's purchasing willingness has weakened, and the auction failure rate has increased. The futures prices of coking coal and coke have accelerated their decline, breaking through important supports. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. Although the steel apparent consumption improved last week, the market is unlikely to have unexpected performance. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival replenishment period. However, the market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and the futures price may gradually move towards the coking coal long - term contract cost pricing [5]. - Iron ore prices are mainly oscillating. The steel mill accident over the weekend may affect hot metal production for a long time. The iron ore valuation is currently moderately high. Under the influence of supply and demand, the port inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and the price is under pressure. The steel apparent consumption has slightly declined, and the overall iron element contradiction is still accumulating. There are opportunities to short after a rebound [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On January 20, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3159.00 yuan/ton, 3295.00 yuan/ton, 771.50 yuan/ton, 1748.50 yuan/ton, and 1203.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 38.00 yuan/ton, - 34.00 yuan/ton, - 8.00 yuan/ton, - 60.50 yuan/ton, and - 55.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of - 1.19%, - 1.02%, - 1.03%, - 3.34%, and - 4.37% respectively. For near - month contracts (main contracts), the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3111.00 yuan/ton, 3276.00 yuan/ton, 789.50 yuan/ton, 1673.50 yuan/ton, and 1124.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 37.00 yuan/ton, - 32.00 yuan/ton, - 8.00 yuan/ton, - 61.50 yuan/ton, and - 53.00 yuan/ton, and percentage changes of - 1.18%, - 0.97%, - 1.00%, - 3.54%, and - 4.50% respectively [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On January 20, the spread between HC2605 - 2610 was - 19.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.00 yuan/ton; the spread between RB2605 - 2610 was - 48.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00 yuan/ton. The spread between J2605 - 2609 was 18.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.50 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 - 2609 was - 79.50 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 165.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 6.00 yuan/ton; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.94, with a change of - 0.01; the coking coal to coke ratio was 1.49, with a change of 0.02; the rebar futures profit was - 86.18 yuan/ton, with a change of 2.18 yuan/ton; the coking futures profit was 178.58 yuan/ton, with a change of 19.67 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: On January 20, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3270.00 yuan/ton, 3140.00 yuan/ton, and 3440.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 20.00 yuan/ton, and - 10.00 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2930.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 103.55, with a change of - 0.90. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, and 3260.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 20.00 yuan/ton. The billet - to - finished product spread was 340.00 yuan/ton, with a change of 10.00 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Fines, Ganqimao Du Coking Concentrate, and Qingdao Port PB were 677.00 yuan/ton, 1235.00 yuan/ton, and 793.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and - 17.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Changes**: On January 20, the basis of HC main contract, RB main contract, 12605 main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 26.00 yuan/ton, 159.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, - 100.87 yuan/ton, and 141.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 13.00 yuan/ton, 19.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, - 47.50 yuan/ton, and 50.50 yuan/ton [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel products, use a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trading, conduct rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage in hot - rolled coils, or use option strategies as an auxiliary [7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, industrial customers should conduct hedging when prices are high [7]. - For coking coal and coke, stop loss for previous long positions as the prices have broken through important supports [7].

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 ਵ E TD 场 与 流 TI TEE 股 損 T 情 综 访 回顾:昨日收盘,沪深300下跌0.33%至4718.9;上证50下跌0.17%至 3070.6;中证500下跌0.48%至8247.8;中证1000下跌1%至8182.8。行业板 块涨少跌多,贵金属、化学原料、水泥建材、化纤行业涨幅居前,通信设 备、光伏设备、航天航空、电源设备、电池、计算机设备、电子元件板块 跌幅居前。沪深京三市成交额28044亿,较昨日放量720亿。 热评:1月20日,财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示,2026 年,财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策,概括起来就是"总量增加 、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支 出总量将保持必要水平,确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障 "只强不弱"。同时,国家发改委副主任王昌林表示,今年坚持把宏观政 策的发力点放在做强国内大循环上,全方位扩大国内需求,并研究制定出 台2026-2030年扩大内需战略实施方案。总体来说,"两会"落地前,国 内政策预期犹存,具体扩内需等政策或陆续推出。 宏观金融数据日报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical and trade uncertainties continue to ferment, leading to a continuous increase in market risk - aversion demand. Precious metal prices have risen significantly, with London spot gold breaking through the $4,730 per ounce mark and London spot silver breaking through the $95 per ounce mark, both reaching new historical highs. [4] - In the short - term, due to Trump's decision to suspend new tariffs on key mineral imports and the risk - control measures introduced by the Shanghai Futures Exchange for gold and silver, price fluctuations may be relatively intense. [4] - In the long - term, the upward logic of precious metals has not reversed. The strategy should mainly focus on buying on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Gold prices are likely to continue to move upward in the medium - to - long - term, and long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **内外盘金银行情**: On January 20, 2026, compared with January 19, London gold spot rose 0.8% to $4,713.69 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $94.08 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.9% to $4,720 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $93.95 per ounce. Among domestic varieties, AU2602 rose 0.8% to 1056.94 yuan per gram, AG2602 fell 0.6% to 23,112 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.8% to 1054.17 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) fell 0.4% to 23,108 yuan per kilogram. [3] - **价差/比价情况**: From January 19 to January 20, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.77 yuan per gram with a - 3.8% change, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4 yuan per kilogram with a - 90.0% change, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 6.76 yuan per gram with a - 0.5% change, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 725 yuan per kilogram with a 29.3% change. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 45.73 with a 1.3% change, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 50.24 with a 0.5% change. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **ETF持仓**: From January 15 to January 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 1.01% to 1085.67 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV increased by 0.07% to 16,073.05851 tons. [3] - **COMEX非商业持仓**: For COMEX gold, from January 15 to January 16, 2026, non - commercial long positions increased by 7.92% to 296,183 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.97% to 44,945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 10.37% to 251,238 contracts. For COMEX silver, non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.10% to 47,337 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 15.66% to 15,277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 9.53% to 32,060 contracts. [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE库存**: On January 20, 2026, compared with January 19, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 99,990 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.13% to 618,582 kilograms. [3] - **COMEX库存**: On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 36,135,901 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.98% to 429,156,441 troy ounces. [3] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **汇率**: From January 19 to January 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by - 0.06% to 7.00. [3] - **美元指数及美债收益率**: From January 15 to January 16, 2026, the US dollar index increased by 0.03% to 99.37, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.84% to 3.59%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.68% to 4.24%. [3] - **其他市场指标**: The VIX increased by 0.13% to 15.86, the S&P 500 decreased by - 0.06% to 6,940.01, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 0.08% to $59.22. [3] 3.5 Market Review - On January 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.99% to 1,060.16 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.62% to 23,062 yuan per kilogram. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The paper pulp market continues to show an inventory accumulation trend this cycle. The inventory of the mainstream domestic paper pulp port, Qingdao Port, shows a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend, and the daily average shipment speed in the port has increased compared with the previous cycle. Recently, the concentrated registration of paper pulp futures warrants limits the further upward space, and the price of broad - leaf pulp has slightly loosened. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - Futures prices: On January 20, 2026, SP2601 was 5550 yuan/ton, up 0.25% day - on - day and 2.36% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5410 yuan/ton, up 0.19% day - on - day and down 2.35% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5376 yuan/ton, up 0.26% day - on - day and down 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5250 yuan/ton, with no day - on - day change and down 1.87% week - on - week; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.06% day - on - day and 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [5]. - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [5]. Supply Data - Import volume: In December 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% month - on - month [5]. - Domestic output: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic output of broad - leaf pulp was 25.2 tons, and the domestic output of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - Supply - side news: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; broad - leaf pulp Star was quoted at 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; unbleached pulp Venus was quoted at 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. Inventory Data - Paper pulp port inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper pulp ports was 201.4 tons, up 0.7 tons from the previous period, a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5]. - Futures delivery warehouse inventory: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory was 14.9 tons [5]. Demand Data - Finished paper output: On January 15, 2026, the output of offset paper was 20.30 tons, coated paper was 8.30 tons, tissue paper was 29.30 tons, and white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5]. - Demand - side situation: The demand side of paper pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has increased slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The output of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - On January 19, the A-share market showed a shrinking and fluctuating trend with differentiated performances among major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.29% at 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.02%, the STAR 50 fell 0.48%, the Wind All-A rose 0.41%, the Wind A500 rose 0.28%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.28%. The UHV and AVIC concepts exploded with many stocks hitting the daily limit, while the petrochemical and catering tourism sectors performed well. The CPO, OCS, semiconductor silicon wafers, and consumer electronics sectors led the decline. The A-share market's total trading volume for the day was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Index closing prices and changes: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed at 3075.9357, down 0.12%; the CSI 300 closed at 4734.4556, up 0.05%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8265.6462, up 0.40%. Their trading volumes were 55.87 billion, 267.61 billion, and 326.69 billion respectively, and their turnovers were 1661.80 billion yuan, 6551.49 billion yuan, and 5816.76 billion yuan respectively [3] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - Option trading volume and position: For the SSE 50, the call option trading volume was 2.84 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 1.88 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 5.25 million contracts, the call option position was 3.23 million contracts, the put option position was 2.02 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.62. For the CSI 300, the call option trading volume was 8.50 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 5.48 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 15.38 million contracts, the call option position was 9.17 million contracts, the put option position was 6.20 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.68. For the CSI 1000, the call option trading volume was 22.71 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 13.04 million contracts, the daily trading volume was 27.10 million contracts, the call option position was 13.94 million contracts, the put option position was 13.16 million contracts, and the PCR was 0.94 [3] Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility and volatility cone charts for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their next-month at-the-money implied volatility and volatility smile curves [3][4]