Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Crude oil [1] - Bearish: Short fiber, Styrene [1] - Volatile: Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Coke, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live pigs, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Black liquor, PVC, LPG, Shipping freight [1] Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by multiple factors such as asset shortages, weak economies, mine production disruptions, seasonal demand changes, and geopolitical situations. Before the National Day holiday, market sentiment is volatile, and funds have a demand for risk aversion. Different industries and varieties show different trends, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to supply - demand and macro - economic changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern before the National Day holiday is low. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and weak economies are beneficial, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk prompts suppress the upward space [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Gold: May fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, but beware of increased volatility during the National Day holiday [1] - Silver: Expected to run strongly in the short term, but beware of sharp fluctuations during the National Day holiday. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Copper: The accident at the Indonesian Grasberg mine has reduced production by 35% (annual output of 800,000 metric tons of metal), intensifying concerns about tight global copper supply. The price may run strongly in the short term [1] - Aluminum: The impact of macroscopic factors has weakened, and the price may fluctuate based on fundamentals [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, pressuring the spot price, but the price is approaching the cost line, and the downward space is limited [1] - Zinc: The supply delay of Huoshaoyun has improved the fundamentals, but high social inventories are still pressuring the price [1] - Nickel: Short - term volatility may be upward, but there is still long - term pressure from the surplus of primary nickel. Suggest short - term trading in intervals and light positions during the holiday [1] - Stainless steel: Raw material prices are firm, social inventories are increasing, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term. Suggest short - term trading and waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1] - Tin: The demand in the peak season is expected to improve, and low - buying opportunities can be concerned [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The upward driving force of the industry is insufficient, and there is a risk of weakening supply and demand in the fourth quarter. Suggest reducing positions during the holiday [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand and high inventories [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: After the coking coal 05 contract reached a new high and then sharply corrected, before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 10th Central Committee, the policy may enter a window period. Before the holiday, long - position holders should gradually exit the market, and if there is a rally, short - selling hedging is the main strategy [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and Indian purchases impact the price, but the September production reduction in Malaysia and biodiesel demand support it. The price is expected to recover from the previous over - decline [1] - Soybean oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and domestic purchases may supplement the supply, weakening the fourth - quarter destocking expectation. The price is expected to recover from the over - decline. Suggest waiting and seeing [1] - Rapeseed oil: The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term remains unchanged. Positive spreads are preferred [1] - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate widely within a range, and there may be pressure in the long term with the listing of new cotton [1] - Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be adjusted downward, and the raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited due to oversupply. In China, the import increase and processing plant operation still bring pressure, and short - selling at high prices is still recommended [1] - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. Pay attention to traders' purchasing rhythm and policy changes [1] - Soybean: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing margin is poor, and the price has support at the bottom. Suggest buying at low prices. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American planting - season weather [1] - Pulp: The bottom range of the pulp futures has initially emerged, but there is no bullish driver yet. Pay attention to the warehouse - receipt cancellation volume after September delivery. The futures price will fluctuate [1] - Log: The fundamentals of logs have no obvious changes. The overseas quotation has decreased, and the spot price is firm. The log futures will fluctuate [1] - Live pigs: The pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight does not decrease significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The market is generally bearish [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Driven by short - term geopolitical tensions and a second - consecutive - week decline in US crude oil inventories [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by factors such as a super typhoon in South China, continuous inventory decline, and a significant reduction in RU warehouse receipts compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are loose, the synthetic rubber supply is abundant, the downstream transactions are weakening, the warehouse receipts on the disk are sharply reduced, and the inter - month spread is widening. Pay attention to the capital - flow trend [1] - PTA: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the PTA output is increasing, the PTA basis is rapidly declining, the crude oil price is falling, the PX plant maintenance is postponed, and the downstream polyester profit is significantly repaired, with the operating load rising to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis of ethylene glycol is strengthening, but the upcoming commissioning of the Yulong Petrochemical ethylene glycol plant puts pressure on the disk. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery [1] - Short fiber: Short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened as the price falls [1] - Styrene: The supply of pure benzene and styrene is continuously increasing after the end of maintenance, the Yulong Petrochemical plant is about to be commissioned, and the import pressure of domestic pure benzene is increasing due to the unopened South Korea - US price difference [1] - Black liquor: The export sentiment has eased, the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1] - PVC: The domestic PVC plants are gradually resuming production, the supply pressure is increasing, and the near - month warehouse receipts are abundant. The price will fluctuate weakly [1] - LPG: OPEC+ production increase and high domestic crude oil inventories suppress the upward momentum of LPG, the chemical demand is weak, and the profit negative feedback leads to a decline in the cost PG [1]

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/9/30 | 指标 | | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 日照 | 87 -3 | -26 -26 | 1600 1200 400 | こここで 18/19 ----- 22/23 | ====== 19/20 == | == - 24/25 | == - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 67 | | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 7 | | -400 | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | 东莞 | -3 | -6 | | | M1-M5 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the increase in demand leads to a supply - demand mismatch, which supports the futures price. However, in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles creates downstream stocking demand, and with the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economy of independent energy storage becomes apparent, resulting in strong installation demand. The continuous reduction of social inventory due to substantial terminal digestion and the active downstream stocking support the futures price. On the supply side, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 yuan, down 50 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 yuan, down 50 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts: the price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 73,760 yuan, up 1.15%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 73,920 yuan, up 0.93%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 73,960 yuan, up 0.85%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 73,900 yuan, up 0.98%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 73,400 yuan, up 0.77% [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 858 yuan, and the prices of different grades of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone are also given, such as lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) at 1140 yuan, lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) at 1875 yuan, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) at 6150 yuan, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) at 7285 yuan [1][2] 3.3 Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640 yuan, down 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 149,350 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,750 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 126,650 yuan, up 450 yuan [2] 3.4 Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 370 yuan, down 1090 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 200 yuan, up 60 yuan [2] 3.5 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,825 tons, down 706 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,492 tons, down 964 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 60,893 tons, up 1398 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,440 tons, down 1140 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 41,119 tons, up 790 tons [2] 3.6 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,433 yuan, and the profit is - 2953 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 8238 yuan [3] 3.7 Company News - Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25th, most employees are on holiday, and it may resume production in November due to the stop of raw material supply from CATL's Yichun Shixiawo lithium mine [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of pulp have shown no signs of recovery. Pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased, and pulp futures are trending weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 29, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5174, down 1.86% day - on - day and 2.16% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4878, down 2.75% day - on - day and 2.60% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5214, down 1.55% day - on - day and 1.92% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600, down 0.88% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5150, down 0.96% day - on - day and week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, up 0.71% day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Japanese pulp was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. Chinese pulp shipments were 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Production**: In September 2025, hardwood pulp production was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. Futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: In September 2025, offset paper production was 21.00 tons; coated paper production was 8.50 tons; tissue paper production was 28.07 tons; white cardboard production was 35.90 tons [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 272, with a quantile level of 0.918; the Silver Star basis was 722, with a quantile level of 0.922 [5] - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 121, with a quantile level of 0.429; hardwood pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5] Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Chilean Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in hardwood pulp quotes [5] - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand remains at a stable level, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, China's mainstream pulp port sample inventory was 203.3 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.35% to 866.52 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.92% to 10,939 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Recently, geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East, and the possible shutdown of the US government have boosted risk - aversion sentiment, pushing up precious metal prices. The continuous expectation of interest rate cuts also supports precious metal prices. For silver, the good performance of US economic data strengthens the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy after preventive interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the industrial attribute of silver, leading to an accelerated rise in silver prices [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties continue, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power games intensify, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long - term. The continuation of global central bank gold purchases will likely push the long - term center of gold prices higher [5]. - In the short - term, with the approaching of China's National Day holiday, investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up and hold light positions during the holiday, while enterprises are advised to do a good job in hedging to avoid possible sharp fluctuations during the holiday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On September 29, compared with September 26, London gold spot rose 2.0% to 3816.09 dollars/ounce, London silver spot rose 3.9% to 46.93 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.9% to 3845.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 3.7% to 47.12 dollars/ounce, AU2510 rose 1.3% to 863.60 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 3.0% to 10912.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 1.2% to 861.90 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 2.9% to 10880.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.7 yuan/gram (up 193.1%), the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 32 yuan/kilogram (up 68.4%), the gold (TD - London) spread was - 10.29 yuan/gram (up 148.4%), the silver (TD - London) spread was - 1098 yuan/kilogram (up 13.1%), the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 79.14 (down 1.7%), the COMEX main ratio was 81.61 (down 1.7%), AU2512 - 2510 was 2.92 yuan/gram (down 16.1%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 27 yuan/kilogram (down 28.9%) [3]. Position Data - **ETF and Non - commercial Positions**: From September 25 to September 26, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 0.89% to 1005.72 tons, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.18% to 15361.84024 tons. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long positions rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the short positions rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, and the net long positions rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long positions rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the short positions fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the net long positions rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: From September 26 to September 29, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.26% to 68628.00 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory rose 2.71% to 1189648.00 kilograms. From September 25 to September 26, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.06% to 39946410 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.08% to 530344533 troy ounces [3]. Other Related Data - **Dollar Index, Bond Yields, etc.**: From September 26 to September 29, the dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.19, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.27% to 3.63%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.27% to 4.20%, NYMEX crude oil rose 0.48% to 6643.70, the dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 8.66% to 7.11, VIX fell 0.05% to 15.29, and the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 65.19 [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 内外劈叉，亟待修复 宏观方面：三季度美联储降息周期重启，然官员分歧较大，短期 降息路径或仍具不确定性，中长期全球货币政策存宽松预期有望支 撑有色板块，与此同时国内经济压力逐渐显现，急需政策端发力， 关注四季度"十五五"规划期间政策出台情况。 有色金属指数与沪锌期货价格走势 数据来源：Wind 往期相关报告 原料端：25 年三季度全球锌矿扰动有限，锌矿供应宽松，预计 四季度延续。此外受内外比价持续下行影响，国产矿和进口矿加工 费趋势分化，且步入四季度国内北方矿山存季节性减产预期，加工 费分化趋势预计持续。 投资建议 单边性价比不高，关注板块内空配机会，月差维持反套逻辑，但 空间不大，此外内外建议关注内库外迁兑现下的反套机会。 风险提示 美国经济衰退风险 | 投资观点： | 中长期看空 | 锌（ZN） | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-9-29 | 季度报告 | | 宏观方面：三季度美联储降息周期重启，然官员分歧较大，短期 |  | 分析师：方富强 | | 降息路径或仍具不确定性，中长期全球货币政策存宽松预期有望支 | | 从 ...

· 有色金属季度报告 流动性好转叠加矿端偏紧，铜价有望进一步走高 | 投资观点： 看多 | 铜（CU） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 2025-9-29 | 季度报告 | ⚫ 宏观方面：美国就业市场超预期疲软，而通胀相对稳定，美联储 9 月份重 启降息，且点阵图显示年内仍将降息 50bp。随着美联储重启降息，市场流动 性有望好转，利多铜价；我国经济运行仍面临不少风险挑战，四季度稳增长政 策加码的窗口有望打开，国内经济机遇与挑战并存。 预计铜价重心有望进一步上移，关注低位布局多单机会。低库存下，继 续关注沪铜正套机会。 ⚫ 风险提示 全球贸易摩擦升级、全球经济复苏进展不及预期、矿端扰动降温 | 铜（CU） | | --- | 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 LME 铜期货价格走势（美元/磅） 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 数据来源：Wind · ⚫ 产业端：供应层面，全球铜矿供应扰动频发，叠加品 ...

A股震荡走低，创业板指跌超2%失守3200点，科技股全线回调。 上证指数收跌0.65%报3828.11点，深证成指跌1.76%，创业板 指跌2.6%，北证50跌1.81%，科创50跌1.6%，万得全A跌1.2%，万得A500跌1%，中证A500跌1.14%。A股全天成交2.17万亿元， 上日成交2.39万亿元。 | 免责 | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符 合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期 | | | 声明 | 货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 世界500强投资企业 | | | | 贸期货有限公司 | | | | 流的衍生品综合服务商 | | | | 入 期 | 市 市 | | | 需 有 客 服 热 线 官 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Oscillating with a bearish bias [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in supply has made the spot market weak, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market may remain weak. The 01 contract's upside is restricted by increased production capacity until February next year. If there are winter epidemics, there will be short - term selling pressure. With piglets in continuous loss for a month, if the loss situation persists, the long - term investment value of the far - month 07 contract can be considered [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market Review - In September, the spot price hit a new low since the beginning of the year, and the overall price center has been declining. The price mainly fluctuates between 12.8 yuan/kg and 16 yuan/kg, with no obvious seasonal trend. The recent decline is due to increased supply and high slaughter weight, indicating abundant production capacity [4] - From July to August, affected by winter piglet losses, the slaughter slowed down. In June, under the background of anti - involution, production capacity regulation stimulated the spot market. The price difference between standard and fat pigs widened, and group farms reduced slaughter while secondary fattening was active, leading to a price increase in July. In September, the slaughter growth inflection point arrived, with production capacity restoration from high - profit piglets in the first quarter. The anti - involution sentiment faded, and the spot price dropped to the lowest point of the year, but the decline was gentle compared to the past five years [6] 3.1.2 Spread Market Review - Affected by anti - involution, the futures - spot structure has shifted to contango. As the spot market weakened in September, the futures market followed passively, maintaining the contango structure. The 07 contract has the highest price due to the expected impact of production capacity reduction on next year's second half - year supply [3][7] 3.2 Capacity Realization in the Cycle 3.2.1 Gradual Restoration of Reproductive Sows - In the second half of the year, the monthly change in the number of reproductive sows was small. As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, 103.6% of the normal level of 39 million. According to the meeting, the number of reproductive sows is expected to be reduced by 1 million by the end of the year, still above the normal level [3][10] 3.2.2 Obvious Improvement in Production Efficiency - In the third quarter, the monthly slaughter volume increased significantly, reflecting the restoration of piglet production capacity in spring. The high piglet profit in February and March stimulated breeding, and the number of piglets increased. The slaughter volume is expected to continue to rise until February 2026, with a significant increase from September to November [3][13] - Since 2023, production efficiency has improved significantly. The average number of healthy piglets per litter has shown an upward trend and remained stable at a high level throughout the year, which is related to increased production capacity and attention to piglet survival rate due to high profits [15] 3.2.3 Steady Increase in Slaughter Weight - The large price difference between standard and fat pigs this year led to low expectations for weight reduction. In the second half of the year, the slaughter weight reached the highest level in the past five years. Although leading enterprises have reduced the weight, the overall national weight reduction is not obvious. The current average national slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, still at a high level in the past five years. Continuous secondary fattening has hindered active weight reduction [16][18] 3.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the self - breeding and self - raising profit entered a loss, ending 16 consecutive months of positive profit. However, the cash cost of breeding is still positive. The positive profit in this cycle is mainly due to the decline in feed raw material prices and the reduction of purchased piglet prices to the cost level. Short - term losses have little impact on breeding behavior, but if losses continue for more than a quarter, there may be motivation to reduce production capacity [21][23] 3.4 Stable Demand - This year's slaughter volume is better than last year, and the overall demand is normal. During the fourth - quarter peak season, the relatively low pig price supports demand. The increase in the frozen product inventory rate reflects the expectation of production capacity reduction in the future [24] 3.5 Policy Attention - The policy focuses on the active reduction of reproductive sows, aiming to reduce the number by 1 million by the end of the year. If implemented, it may affect the pig slaughter volume in the second half of next year. The current pig - grain ratio has triggered the purchase and storage policy. Although the grain price increase is limited due to a good corn harvest, attention should still be paid to policies related to the pig - grain ratio caused by falling pig prices [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "shockingly weak" [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international policy is loose but highly uncertain, while the domestic policy aims for stable growth but the domestic demand momentum needs to be released. The inflation pressure in the US has not completely subsided, and the market bets on further interest rate cuts by the end of the year, but the risk of "recessionary interest rate cuts" should be vigilant. There are still differences in the Sino-US tariff negotiations. In May 2025, some additional tariffs were cancelled, but the US has not clearly adjusted the 20% tariff related to "fentanyl" and the 10% basic tariff, and there are still significant variables in the later stage. Domestically, the official has introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, and the market expects a possible interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter; the capital activity has increased marginally, but the domestic demand policy still needs to be strengthened [5][64]. - Globally, the cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been increased month-on-month, with China, India, and Australia being the main sources of incremental production, offsetting the production cuts in some regions. The US production has slightly increased, but there is a risk of a downward revision of the unit yield due to the drought in the main producing areas. The global ending inventory has dropped to the lowest in nearly four years, the inventory-consumption ratio has decreased, and the supply and demand have shifted to a tight balance. The trade flow has been restructured due to Sino-US frictions, and China has reduced its purchase of US cotton and shifted to other cotton-producing countries. Domestically, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, and the sufficient accumulated temperature has helped to improve the unit yield. The total production is expected to increase significantly, the harvest time is advanced, the pre-sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly, and the hedging position has moved forward, suppressing the short-term supply elasticity. The risk preference of ginning factories has dropped to a low level due to continuous losses, the effective production capacity has been reduced, the shortage pattern of seed cotton has reversed, and at the same time, the port and industrial and commercial inventories are running at a low level, the import volume has shrunk, and the domestic supply is more dependent on new cotton. There is a game between cotton farmers and ginning factories regarding the opening price [5][68]. - Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upward but shows significant differentiation. China's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has driven consumption growth, while countries such as Turkey and Pakistan have dragged down the global demand recovery due to weak textile exports. The import of textiles and clothing in Europe and the US has improved marginally, but the inventories of wholesalers are at a high level and the willingness to replenish stocks is weak. The orders of processing countries in Southeast Asia are mainly short-term orders, and there is a shortage of long-term orders. Domestically, the characteristics of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season are not significant. Although the operating rate of textile enterprises has rebounded, it is still lower than the same period in previous years. The order increment is limited and mainly consists of small and short-term orders. The inventories of yarn, grey cloth, and textile enterprise raw materials have been continuously reduced but are still at a high level in the same period. Textile enterprises have a low willingness to actively stock up due to profit losses (cash flow losses for inland enterprises and small profits for Xinjiang enterprises). Exports show the characteristic of "trading volume for price", and the proportion of exports to emerging markets has increased to offset the decline in demand from Europe and the US [5][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter, the Zhengzhou cotton futures generally showed a volatile trend of "rising first and then falling". In July, the domestic planting area increased in the new year, and the weather conditions were generally favorable for cotton growth. The market was optimistic about the later production, but the old crop inventory was low, and at the same time, the downstream production capacity was excessive. The old crop basis was running at a high level, which supported the Zhengzhou cotton price. The Zhengzhou cotton ran strongly to 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. For US cotton, although some producing areas encountered certain weather problems, the overall impact was limited, and the market's expectation of US cotton production was still relatively stable. The price fluctuated between 67 - 68 cents/pound [6]. - In August, as the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere entered the critical growth stage, the impact of weather factors on the market became more significant. The weather in the Xinjiang production area in China was good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton increased. At the same time, the near-month Zhengzhou cotton continued to reduce its positions and decline, reflecting that the real willingness of long - term funds to take delivery was relatively low. In the US, continuous drought weather occurred in some main cotton - producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the good - quality rate of US cotton. However, due to market concerns that the Sino - US tariff negotiations would fall short of expectations, leading to continued sluggish exports of new crops, the US cotton price still maintained a volatile and weak operation [6]. - In September, as the new cotton was approaching the market, the game among all parties in the market intensified. At the macro level, the domestic introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, which boosted the sentiment of the commodity market. Driven by the positive market sentiment, the Zhengzhou cotton rushed up to near the previous high again, but due to the gradual listing of new cotton and the less - than - expected recovery of orders from downstream textile enterprises, the Zhengzhou cotton fell again. At the end of the month, the price of the main contract closed at 13,600 - 13,700 yuan/ton. For US cotton, as the new cotton began to be harvested one after another, the market's expectation of production gradually became clear. Although there was some production reduction due to previous weather problems, the demand side was still weak. The US cotton price fluctuated and fell after rushing up, and the price of the main contract closed at around 69 cents/pound at the end of the month [7]. 2. International Cotton Market 2.1 Global Trade Flow Reconstruction - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by more than 230,000 tons month - on - month to 25.62 million tons. The main sources of incremental production were China, India, and Australia. The global cotton consumption increased by 180,000 tons month - on - month to 25.87 million tons, mainly driven by the recovery of consumption in China. The global cotton trade volume increased by 20,000 tons month - on - month. India and Australia were the main sources of export increment, and Vietnam and Turkey were the main sources of import increment. The global cotton trade generally maintained an expanding trend, but the Sino - US trade friction led to the gradual reconstruction of the global trade flow [13]. - Affected by the reduction of the initial inventory, the global cotton ending inventory decreased by nearly 170,000 tons month - on - month to 15.92 million tons, the lowest level in nearly four years. The global cotton inventory - consumption ratio dropped to 45%, down 1 percentage point month - on - month and 0.7 percentage points year - on - year, indicating that the global cotton "de - stocking" process continued, and the supply - demand pattern gradually switched from "loose" to "tight balance" [14]. 2.2 United States: Drought in Producing Areas and Obstructed Exports - In terms of new crop production, the USDA September supply - demand report showed that the estimated unit yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 861 pounds/acre, down 1 pound/acre month - on - month, but the estimated harvest area was 7.37 million acres, up 10,000 acres month - on - month, resulting in a slight increase in the total production to 2.88 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. The adjustment of the unit yield was due to the continuous expansion of the drought area in the main US cotton - producing areas. As of September 16, 2025, about 41% of the US cotton - producing areas were affected by drought. As of September 22, 2025, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants was 52%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week [16][17]. - In terms of exports, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, down 54% from the previous week and the average level of the previous four weeks. The weekly export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, up 14% from the previous week and 6% from the average level of the previous four weeks. China continued to be absent from the new - season US cotton procurement. As of the week of September 18, 2025, the total sales progress of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 7.7%, indicating that US cotton faced difficulties in the international market and its competitiveness needed to be improved [18]. - In terms of tariff negotiations, in May 2025, China and the US agreed to cancel the additional 91% tariffs imposed after April 2, but the US still had uncertainties in tariff policies. The market expected that the possibility of reducing the 10% (basic reciprocal tariff) was low; the 20% fentanyl tariff was expected to be reduced, but the reduction range was not clear; the reduction range of the 24% additional reciprocal tariff also depended on the negotiation results of both sides [19]. 2.3 Brazil: Both Supply and Sales Increase - For the old crop, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area in Brazil continued to expand, with the national cotton planting area reaching about 2.09 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 155,000 hectares (+7.3%). The average unit yield was 1,887 kg/hectare (-0.9%), equivalent to 125.8 kg/mu. Driven by the large increase in area, the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 3.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 233,000 tons (+6.3%), setting a new historical record [37]. - For the new crop, it is predicted that the cotton planting area in Brazil will be 2.14 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The average unit yield is 1,849 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The main risk to the new - crop unit yield comes from the uncertainty of climate conditions. In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's total cotton exports reached 2.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, making it the world's largest cotton exporter again. As of mid - September 2025, the pre - sale progress of Brazil's 2025/26 season cotton had reached 26% [40]. 2.4 India: Production Increases and Demand Stabilizes - In terms of production, the USDA latest report estimated that the cotton production in India in the 2025/26 season would be 4.16 million bales, with a planting area of 11.2 million hectares and a unit yield of 372 kg/hectare. The CAI predicted that the new - crop unit yield would increase by about 10% [42]. - In terms of imports, as of July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season (2024.8 - 2025.7) was 604,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 284.5%, at a historical high. The CAI latest supply - demand data adjusted the cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season to 3.9 million bales [42][43]. - In terms of exports, the USDA September report showed that the cotton export of India in the 2024/25 season decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month to 280,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. The CAI estimated that the export in the 2024/25 season would be 1.8 million bales, lower than 2.836 million bales in the 2023/24 season. The export destinations were still concentrated in Southeast Asia, but the shares of major countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China all declined significantly [43]. - In terms of domestic consumption, the CAI estimated that as of the end of August 2025, the domestic cotton consumption in India in the 2024/25 season was 5.34 million tons, basically the same month - on - month and year - on - year [43]. 2.5 Southeast Asia: Total Volume Increases Steadily and Structure Differs - Southeast Asia has become the core destination for the transfer of global cotton spinning production capacity. Affected by the 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods, a large number of Indian cotton product orders have been transferred to Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries' yarn mills' cotton consumption demand has increased significantly. Vietnam has an advantage in tariff competition in the European and American markets and has become the preferred destination for export - oriented orders [45]. - Southeast Asia itself lacks cotton production and depends entirely on imports for raw materials. In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in Pakistan is expected to be 1.85 million hectares, a decrease of 7.5% from the previous year. The output is predicted to be adjusted down to 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [46][47]. 3. Domestic Cotton Market 3.1 Supply: High Pressure from New Crops - For the old crop inventory, as of August 31, 2025, the total national social cotton inventory was 2.37 million tons, including 890,000 tons of industrial inventory and 1.48 million tons of commercial inventory, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% and 14.0% respectively, significantly lower than 3 million tons in the same period in 2024. After entering September, the pace of old - crop inventory depletion slowed down slightly but remained at a low level. Spot transactions were dull, and textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [49]. - For the new crop output, in terms of area, according to the data of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in July 2025, the national actual cotton sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; among them, the actual sown area in the Xinjiang cotton area was 43.58 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In terms of unit yield, the comprehensive climate from sowing to boll - opening in the Xinjiang cotton area was suitable. The China Cotton Association data showed that the estimated unit yield of Xinjiang cotton in 2025 was 169 kg/mu, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Market institutions estimated that the output range was between 7.08 - 7.7 million tons [49][50]. - In terms of imports, since 2025, the domestic cotton import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 513,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. It may increase slightly from September to December due to the implementation of processing trade quotas, but it will still be relatively stable throughout the year [50]. 3.2 Demand: High and Stable in Xinjiang, Differentiated in Inland Areas - The operating rate of domestic yarn mills shows a pattern of "high and stable in Xinjiang, differentiated in inland areas". The operating rate of Xinjiang yarn mills is significantly better than that of inland areas. Since 2025, the operating rate of large - scale yarn mills in Xinjiang has been stable in the range of 80% - 90%. From the raw material end, the expected local cotton output in Xinjiang is sufficient, and yarn mills can purchase nearby, which not only has a stable supply but also saves long - distance transportation costs. From the industrial environment, in recent years, Xinjiang has continuously increased its support for the textile industry, and the policy dividends have attracted a large amount of investment [55]. - The demand for cotton in inland yarn mills shows a differentiated pattern of "stable for leading enterprises, sluggish for small and medium - sized enterprises", and the overall demand is weaker than that in Xinjiang. Large - scale inland yarn mills have relatively stable demand for cotton procurement, while small and medium - sized yarn mills face multiple operating pressures. On the one hand, the terminal consumer market demand is weak, and it is difficult to obtain orders, and most of them are small and short - term orders. On the other hand, the costs of raw material procurement, labor, transportation, etc. continue to rise, and the profit space of enterprises is compressed. Some enterprises have tight cash flow, and the operating rate can only be maintained at 50% - 60%, and there are even intermittent shutdown situations [56][57].