Group 1: Report Core View - As of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6%. The dry weather in the next two weeks is conducive to the harvest, and the expected shipment volume in January is higher than last year [8]. - As of January 14, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9%, slightly behind last year. The proportion of good - rated soybean crops was 60%. The dry weather since January has led to a decline in the excellent - good rate, and the dry weather will continue in the next two weeks [8]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate before the Spring Festival. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has increased slightly, and the far - month trading volume of soybean meal has increased recently. The提货 performance is normal. Due to the price drop of rapeseed meal caused by the easing of China - Canada relations, the feeding cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased [8]. - Overall, as Brazil's harvest progresses, the Brazilian QR premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of soybean production. Pay attention to the subsequent weather in Argentina. The NO5 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Group 2: Market Data Spot Basis - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract): In Dalian, it was 493; in Tianjin, 433; in Zhangjiagang, 373; in Dongguan, 373; in Zhanjiang, 423; in Fangcheng, 433. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 193, with a change of 36 [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the spread of the main contract was 506 [10]. Inventory and Supply - related Data - The inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory [5][6][9][10]. - The开机 and压榨 situation includes national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, national major oil mills' startup rate, and downstream提货 volume [7]. International Data - The 2025 soybean CNF premium chart for continuous months and the 2025 imported soybean's gross profit per ton are presented, with details of premiums and exchange rates [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The European shipping line currently shows a "near - strong, far - weak" oscillating pattern. Spot quotes are continuously loosening, with the FAK central price of the three major alliances dropping to $2200 - 2700/FEU. The main futures contract is oscillating weakly. The EC2602 contract is supported by pre - holiday shipments, while the EC2604 contract has fallen by over 8% due to off - season expectations. The core drivers are Maersk's leading the resumption of Red Sea voyages, combined with the shipping capacity growth rate exceeding demand, and the long - term pressure of oversupply remaining unchanged. Short - term exports of photovoltaic and battery products provide marginal support. It will oscillate in the short term, and the far - month contracts are suppressed by resumption expectations. It's necessary to closely monitor the route recovery rhythm and shipping company pricing to seize interval opportunities [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shipping Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1574, down 4.45% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1210, up 1.25%. For different routes, SCFI - US West is 2194, down 1.08%; SCFIS - US West is 1305, down 1.36%; SCFI - US East is 3163, up 1.12%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1676, down 2.50%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1954, down 0.10%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2983, down 7.70% [6]. Spot Price - OCEAN Alliance: CMA CGM's quote is relatively firm at $3693/FEU; COSCO Shipping is at $3325/FEU; Evergreen Marine has dropped about $400 to $3030 - 3130/FEU; Orient Overseas Container Line has dropped $150 to $2880/FEU. The overall FAK central price is about $2700 - 3300/FEU. - GEMINI Alliance: Maersk's price dropped from $1695/2730 (20'/40') in Week 4 (January 20 - 26) to $1510/2420 in Week 5, with non - European base ports as low as $2400/FEU; Hapag - Lloyd's price is $1585/2535 (20'/40'), and the February quote remains unchanged. The overall FMK central price is about $2400 - 2700/FEU. - PREMIER Alliance + MSC: MSC is at $1580/2640 (20'/40'); Ocean Network Express (ONE) is at $1680/2635 (20'/40') with the same price in February; Yang Ming Marine Transport's price is relatively stable at about $2600/FEU; HMM's quote is relatively low at $1433/2436 (20'/40'). The overall FAK central price is about $2400 - 2650/FEU [7]. Strategy Pay attention to the opportunity of short - allocating off - season contracts [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The PX market continues to be strong, driven by speculative funds pre - arranging long positions for 2026. Current supporting factors have exceeded pure financial drivers: the decline in gasoline blending profit has made the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has widened to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has reached $370, significantly improving PX production economics. South Korean factories are expected to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have had a negative feedback on PTA. PTA consumption remains high, but mainstream polyester factories have advanced overhauls and are selling PTA raw materials, and the basis has weakened rapidly [2] Summary of Related Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4960 to 4970, PTA closing price rose from 5018 to 5030, MEG inner - market price dropped from 3665 to 3637, and MEG closing price decreased from 3796 to 3755. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6405 to 6450, short - fiber basis rose from 57 to 67, and 3 - 4 spread remained unchanged at 44. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5250, and the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1155 to 1200. East China water bottle chip price increased from 6007 to 6020, hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6007 to 6020, carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6107 to 6120, and outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 805. Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 538 to 552, T32S pure polyester yarn price dropped from 10600 to 10570, T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4195 to 4120, polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16600 to 16700, cotton 328 price dropped from 15450 to 15440, polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1513 to 1587, and the price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) decreased from 7210 to 7165. The cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 541 to 497, and the price of primary low - melting - point staple fiber decreased from 7775 to 7760 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures rose 2 to 6398. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories declined slightly, the prices of traders fluctuated, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the on - site transactions were tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6320 - 6550 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6440 - 6670 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6350 - 6500 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the cost - end support weakened, the supply - end quotations were a mix of stability and decline, the on - site spot supply was slightly tight, downstream end - users replenished stocks for rigid demand, the negotiation atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center dropped slightly [2] Operating Rate and Sales Rate - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, the polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 74.00% to 60.00%, the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 66.00%, and the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained at 51.10% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term, platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in New York inventory. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand gap of platinum and the loosening supply of palladium, the strategy can be to allocate platinum at low prices or choose the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6] Summary by Relevant Content Domestic Prices (Yuan/Gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: The current value is 615.1, the previous value is 610.05, with a rise of 0.83% [4] - Spot platinum (99.95%): The current value is 608, the previous value is 603, with a rise of 0.83% [4] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 7.1, the previous value is - 7.05, with a rise of 0.71% [4] - Lithium futures main contract closing price: The current value is 477.95, the previous value is 469.35, with a rise of 1.83% [4] - Spot lithium (99.95%): The current value is 458, the previous value is 448.5, with a rise of 2.12% [4] - Lithium basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 19.95, the previous value is - 20.85, with a fall of 4.32% [4] International Prices (15:00, US dollars/Ounce) - London spot platinum: The current value is 2350.4, the previous value is 2338.8, with a rise of 0.50% [4] - London spot lithium gold: The current value is 1797.455, the previous value is 1747.624, with a rise of 2.85% [4] - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 2362, the previous value is 2336, with a rise of 1.11% [4] - NYMEX lithium: The current value is 1847.5, the previous value is 1795, with a rise of 2.92% [4] Internal - External 15:00 Spread (Yuan/Gram) - Guangdong platinum - London platinum: The current value is 16.93, the previous value is 14.60, with a rise of 15.94% [4] - Guangdong platinum - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 13.98, the previous value is 15.31, with a fall of 8.74% [4] - Guangdong lithium - London lithium: The current value is 20.50, the previous value is 24.41, with a fall of 16.02% [5] - Guangdong lithium - NYMEX lithium: The current value is 7.77, the previous value is 12.35, with a fall of 37.12% [5] Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: The current value is 1.2870, the previous value is 1.2998, with a decrease of 0.0128 [5] - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: The current value is 1.3076, the previous value is 1.3383, with a decrease of 0.0306 [5] Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: The current value is 664393, the previous value is 664293, with a rise of 0.01% [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: The current value is 207020, the previous value is 210908, with a fall of 1.84% [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: The current value is 78337, the previous value is 79050, with a fall of 0.90% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: The current value is 17594, the previous value is 18110, with a fall of 2.85% [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: The current value is 19483, the previous value is 19349, with a rise of 0.69% [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: The current value is 579, the previous value is 1225, with a rise of 111.57% [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The policy aims for a slow - bull trend in the stock index market, with short - term shock adjustment space expected to be limited, and long - term bulls can choose opportunities to lay out [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has reminded of interest rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Most commodities are in a state of shock, with different influencing factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index was strong in the first half of the week, then adjusted with policy "cooling" of speculative sentiment. The policy advocates a slow - bull trend, and long - term bulls can choose opportunities to lay out [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has reminded of interest rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspension of key mineral taxation, short - term copper price concerns ease, and it tends to run in high - level shock [1]. - **Aluminum**: With weak macro - and industrial - driven factors, aluminum prices have fallen from high levels [1]. - **Alumina**: With strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market, the price is under pressure but is near the cost line, expected to run in shock [1]. - **Zinc**: With a stable cost center and inventory pressure, zinc prices fluctuate in a range under repeated macro - sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Despite a 2026 RKAB target of about 260 million wet tons in Indonesia, the supply remains tight. Global inventory accumulation may restrict price increases. Short - term prices are in high - level shock, and short - term long - positions on dips are recommended [1]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with energy - consumption control and anti - involution possibly disturbing supply [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is hard to judge, and fluctuations intensify after a large increase [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the rumor of Indonesia not implementing B50, it is expected to enter shock consolidation, waiting for positive drivers [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: With a strong fundamental situation, it is recommended to be overweighted in the oil sector, and consider a long - Y and short - P spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With improved supply expectations and a global bumper harvest in the new season, its fundamental situation in the oil sector is relatively weak [1]. - **Cotton**: The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting intentions, and demand should be monitored [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - positions due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - **Corn**: With a fast selling progress in the Northeast and low port inventories, the short - term spot is firm, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in a range [1]. - **Soybeans**: With Brazil's harvest progress, the selling pressure of a bumper harvest is expected, and attention should be paid to Argentina's weather [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply - demand contradiction [1]. - **Asphalt**: With high profit and sufficient supply of raw materials, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: With strong cost support and an increase in mid - stream inventory, it is recommended to be long on dips [1]. - **BR Rubber**: After a phased correction, the cost of butadiene has strong support, and the market is expected to return to fundamental - driven [1]. - **PTA**: The PX market has risen rapidly, and the PTA market is expected to be tight in 2026, with high domestic operating rates [1]. - **MEG**: After a continuous decline, it rebounded due to supply - side news, and downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - **Styrene**: With improved supply - demand fundamentals, inventory has decreased, and the price has rebounded [1]. - **Urea**: With limited upward space due to weak domestic demand and support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **PVC**: With less global production in 2026, but poor fundamentals, there may be a rush for exports [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: With weak fundamentals and low prices, the market is expected to trade on fundamentals again [1]. - **LPG**: With rising import costs, inventory reduction, and high domestic PDH operating rates, the heating market is expected to start [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Expected to reach a peak in mid - January, with cautious resumption of flights by airlines and pre - holiday replenishment demand [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Due to the Greenland issue, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on European super - countries starting from February 1st, and foreign media reported that Europe might counter. The dual uncertainties in geopolitics and trade have increased the market's risk - aversion demand, leading to a sharp rise in precious metal prices. The long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and strategies should focus on buying on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options [4] - In the medium to long term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, and the US dollar credit risk will increase. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the medium - to - long - term price center of gold is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On January 19, 2026, London gold spot was $4674.54/ounce, London silver spot was $93.65/ounce, and compared with January 16, the price increases were 1.7% and 3.5% respectively. The prices of other gold and silver products also showed different degrees of increase [3] 2. Spread/Ratio - On January 19, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.88 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 40 yuan/kg. Compared with January 16, the changes were 35.8% and 185.7% respectively [3] 3. Position Data - As of January 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1085.67 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16073.05851 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different changes compared with January 15 [3] 4. Inventory Data - On January 19, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 99990.00 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory was 617760.00 kg, showing a decline compared with January 16 [3] 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 19, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.01, the US dollar index was 99.37, and other indicators also had slight changes compared with the previous period [3] 6. Market Review - On January 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.54% to 1048.88 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.75% to 20189 yuan/kg [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry has minor contradictions, and attention should be paid to basis opportunities. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market lacks drivers and shows a volatile trend. The first round of coke price increase suspension has little impact, and it may still have a chance to be implemented this week. Iron ore prices mainly fluctuate, and short - term overall fluctuations are limited [2][3][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - On Monday, the spot and futures prices fluctuated, and spot trading was light. Although last week's weekly data from Steelhome improved, there was a difference from the spot market perception. Building material demand is expected to decline seasonally in the next two weeks, providing limited support for the market. During the off - season around the Spring Festival, there is no significant selling pressure on prices. At the current valuation, steel mills have profits and a willingness to resume production, while traders are reluctant to conduct open - position winter storage and prefer basis trading. In the future, the probability of an increase in hot metal production is high, and there is support at low price levels. Market funds are abundant, but confidence is cautious. Hot - rolled coil futures and spot arbitrage should be rolled [2] - Adopt a unilateral range - bound trading strategy for steel: conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil futures and spot positive arbitrage, or use option strategies to assist spot trading [8] Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - Recently, there is a lack of drivers, and the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are volatile. On the demand side, as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are poor, and there is great pressure to adjust hot metal production downward, resulting in weak direct demand. In the off - season of terminal demand, overall demand is difficult to improve for the time being. On the supply side, although alloy plants' profits are generally poor, production remains high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure persists. Macro - policies are mainly favorable, and industrial policies have an impact on supply and cost support expectations. Overall, the fundamentals of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are under pressure, and there is a high risk of a decline in the future. Industrial customers should conduct hedging when prices are high [3][5][8] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been put on hold, and market gaming continues. Coking coal online auctions are performing well, with a low overall non - trading rate and rising transaction prices. In the futures market, the black sector has followed the broader market to rise and then fall. In the off - season, there is no excessive selling pressure on the spot market. Coal mine supply continues to recover, and coal mine inventories are decreasing as downstream enterprises start to replenish stocks. In the short term, pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment will support spot prices. Although the steel market feels weak in the off - season, there is little selling pressure. The suspension of the first round of coke price increase has little impact, and it may still have a chance to be implemented this week under the influence of snow and rain in the production areas. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [6][8] Iron Ore - The steel mill accident over the weekend may lead to safety inspections or production suspension and rectification of the steel mill, which will have a significant impact on hot metal production for a long time. After the accident, it is more certain that the current valuation of iron ore is moderately high. Fundamentally, due to supply - demand factors, iron ore port inventories continue to rise, and there is clear upward pressure on ore prices. Recently, the apparent demand for steel has slightly declined, and the total steel inventory is still in a destocking state, with downstream data being neutral. The contradiction of iron elements is still accumulating, and short - term fluctuations are limited. Wait for a rebound and then look for opportunities to enter short positions [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market continues to show a trend of inventory accumulation. In the current cycle, the inventory at Qingdao Port, a major domestic pulp port, has seen a narrow - range increase, with the daily average shipping speed in the port increasing compared to the previous cycle. - Recently, there has been concentrated registration of pulp futures warehouse receipts, limiting the further upside potential. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly weakened. It is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 19, 2026, SP2601 was 5231 yuan/ton, down 0.11% day - on - day but up 2.18% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.46% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5362 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.33% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day - on - day and 0.90% week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.87% week - on - week; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4650 yuan/ton, down 1.69% day - on - day and 2.11% week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote for Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Japanese return was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month. In terms of domestic production, the production volume of hardwood pulp on January 15, 2026, was 25.2 tons; the production volume of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 201.4 tons, up 0.7 tons from the previous period and 0.3% month - on - month. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 14.9 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production volume of double - offset paper was 20.30 tons; copperplate paper was 8.30 tons; tissue paper was 29.30 tons; white cardboard was 38.40 tons [5]. Market Situation - **Supply - side**: Chile's Arauco Company's January offer for coniferous pulp was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the offer for hardwood pulp Star was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; the offer for natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have remained stable. The production volume of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [5]. - **Inventory - side**: As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of major pulp ports in China was 201.4 tons, with a 0.7 - ton increase from the previous period and a 0.3% month - on - month increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's rate cuts and policy adjustments aim to support economic structural transformation and optimization [4] - In 2025, the domestic economy showed a "high - front, low - back" trend, and in 2026, the economic growth pressure in the first half of the year is relatively large, so there is a need for policies to be implemented earlier [6] - The upward trend of stock indices is expected to continue as the current capital - driven force is strong and the domestic fundamentals are in the bottom - building stage, and long - term bulls can choose the right time to enter the market [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a - 0.17bp change, DR007 at 1.48 with a 3.42bp change, etc. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 7.00bp to 4.24 [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 99 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1694 billion yuan [3] - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 closed at 4733 with a 0.1% change, IH当月 at 3076 with a - 0.1% change, etc. Trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22.2, 28.5, 11.3, and 14.8 respectively, while IC and IM's open interest increased by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively [5] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.05% to 4734.5, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.12% to 3075.9, etc. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 27325 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 3243 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - **GDP Data**: The annual GDP in 2025 was 1401879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase year - on - year. The Q4 GDP increased 4.5% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points slower than Q3 [6] 3.2 Policy Hot - Comments - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, adjusted the re - loan interest rates, and increased the quota of agricultural and small - business re - loans by 5000 billion yuan, with a 10000 - billion - yuan special quota for private enterprises [4] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM for different contracts are presented, such as IF's basis rate for the current - month contract is 0.40%, etc. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds pre - positioning long positions for 2026. Current support factors go beyond pure financial drivers. The decline in gasoline blending profit makes the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has expanded to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread has reached $370, improving PX production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand is falling, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a negative impact on PTA. Although PTA consumption remains high, mainstream polyester factories are conducting early overhauls and selling PTA raw materials, causing the basis to weaken rapidly [2]. - For ethylene glycol, overseas ethylene glycol unit overhaul plans are increasing. Two sets of MEG units in Taiwan, China, with a total capacity of 720,000 tons per year, plan to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian ethylene glycol units have started scheduled overhauls. The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports remains at 730,000 tons. Against the background of the continuous decline in coal prices, ethylene glycol prices lack effective support. With the successive commissioning of new units, market supply pressure is increasing. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol units exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and ethylene glycol prices may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price dropped from 438.8 yuan/barrel on January 16th to 437.4 yuan/barrel on January 19th, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC spread increased from 1,829.2 yuan/ton to 1,851.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.17 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5736 to 1.5824, an increase of 0.0088 [2]. - CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 879, and the PX - naphtha spread also remained unchanged at 331. The PTA main - contract futures price increased from 5,018 yuan/ton to 5,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price increased from 4,960 yuan/ton to 4,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee increased from 309.6 yuan/ton to 321.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.8 yuan/ton. The PTA on - paper processing fee increased from 367.6 yuan/ton to 381.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.8 yuan/ton. The PTA main - contract basis increased from - 67 to - 63, an increase of 4. The PTA warehouse - receipt quantity decreased from 104,318 to 104,312, a decrease of 6 [2]. - The MEG main - contract futures price decreased from 3,796 yuan/ton to 3,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased from - 153.29 yuan/ton to - 159.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3,665 yuan/ton to 3,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton. The MEG main - contract basis increased from - 128 to - 120, an increase of 8 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - The PX start - up rate remained unchanged at 85.82%. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 75.63%. The MEG start - up rate decreased from 60.82% to 60.58%, a decrease of 0.24%. The polyester load decreased from 86.61% to 85.83%, a decrease of 0.78% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Filament - The price of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6,690. The POY cash flow increased from - 29 to - 28, an increase of 1. The price of FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6,920. The FDY cash flow increased from - 299 to - 298, an increase of 1. The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 7,830 to 7,850, an increase of 20. The DTY cash flow increased from - 89 to - 68, an increase of 21. The polyester filament sales rate increased from 40% to 46%, an increase of 6% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber increased from 6,405 to 6,450, an increase of 45. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 36 to 82, an increase of 46. The polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 73% to 57%, a decrease of 16% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow of Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright polyester chip increased from 5,735 to 5,740, an increase of 5. The polyester chip cash flow increased from - 84 to - 78, an increase of 6. The polyester chip sales rate increased from 83% to 84%, an increase of 1% [2]. Device Maintenance Information - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to be shut down for maintenance as planned tomorrow. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is expected to shut down in the next two days and is initially expected to restart in early March [3].