周二期现价格窄幅波动,成交持平,现货体感清淡。宏观层面,新驱动和消息并不多,近期大宗商品表现不算差,汇率升值 可能会带来人民币资产的配置优势,观察商品结构性机会的延续,而在这种环境中,黑色板块需要等待新驱动的形成和资金 的入场。产业层面,五材结构表现维持供需两弱,但铁水产量边际上出现持稳回升,钢材产量回落对炉料造成的负面压力边 际上是弱化的;五材中板材去库压力比较突出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿,1月份之 后铁水产量回升的确定性增加,产业端会有一些适当补库的行为,来释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。目前产业 矛盾不突出,宏观和市场风偏略好,策略上单边可以震荡思路对待,1月之后市场资金或更充裕,有利于期现头寸入场, 卷期现止套仍可滚动操作。 【硅铁锰硅】情绪转暖,双硅向上 | HE SECHEN | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2026/01/07 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific ratings for some individual industries, such as "看多" (Bullish) for glass [1]. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to continue its strong trend in the short - term and may rise further in 2026 due to macro - policy support, inflation recovery, and capital market reforms [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are generally affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals. Some metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel may show strong trends, while others like alumina may oscillate [1]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand, and policy. For example, corn is expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors like geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand, and cost. For example, the price of crude oil has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - Stock index: Expected to continue a strong trend in the short - term and rise in 2026 with policy support, inflation recovery, and capital inflow [1]. - Bond futures: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are warned [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Higher due to supply disruptions and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Expected to remain strong with tight supply expectations and positive macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Likely to oscillate as supply has room to release but the price is near the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Price has risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: May be strong in the short - term due to supply concerns and policy uncertainties [1]. - Stainless steel: Expected to be strong in the short - term, with suggestions of short - term long positions [1]. - Tin: Strengthened due to positive macro - sentiment, but the follow - up is affected by market sentiment [1]. - Precious metals: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and safe - haven demand [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May have strong and wide - range fluctuations in the short - term, with platinum recommended for long - term long positions or arbitrage [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, with high short - term speculative sentiment [1]. - Polysilicon: Terminal installation increases, and big manufacturers are reluctant to sell [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Rising rapidly in the short - term due to peak season and strong demand [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Valuations are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - Ferrous metals: Facing a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, price is under pressure in the short - term but may be affected by supply policies [1]. - Glass: Bullish, with supply - demand support and low valuation [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downside space [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Likely to oscillate widely, with attention on price drops during the price - cut implementation period [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May reverse due to seasonal factors and policies after the MPOB December data shows a possible short - term negative impact [1]. - Soybean oil: Recommended for long positions in the oil market, with a suggestion of long Y and short P spreads [1]. - Rapeseed oil: May decline due to global supply increase, but beware of short - term rebounds [1]. - Cotton: Currently in a situation of support but lack of drivers, with future attention on policies and weather [1]. - Sugar: Globally oversupplied, with cost support if the price drops further [1]. - Corn: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to low inventory and potential downstream restocking [1]. - Soybean meal: M03 - M05 is expected to be in a positive spread in the short - term, but operation should be cautious [1]. - Pulp: Expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton [1]. - Logs: Expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Livestock: Demand is stable, but capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts, but supply may increase [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: High profit, with supply and demand affected by various factors [1]. - BR rubber: High - inventory operation, with attention on price trends [1]. - PX and PTA: PX has a strong market, and PTA maintains high - level operation [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Rebounded due to supply - side news, with high downstream demand [1]. - Short - fiber: Follows cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: In a weak - balance state, with upward momentum depending on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: Limited upside space due to weak domestic demand, but supported by cost [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are mixed, with potential capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: Cost - supported, with short - term risk premiums rising [1].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On January 6, platinum and palladium futures prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 6.02% to 616.8 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 5.16% to 471.9 yuan/gram. Affected by geopolitical risks, precious metal prices collectively rose, driving platinum and palladium prices to strengthen significantly. Due to market concerns about the spillover of the Venezuelan situation to South America, mineral resources were favored by funds, which also boosted platinum and palladium prices. [5] - Recently, the premium of domestic platinum and palladium futures prices over spot prices and the external premium have continued to narrow, indicating that platinum and palladium prices are returning to a relatively reasonable range. [5] - Looking ahead, under the macro - favorable conditions and relatively stable performance of gold and silver, platinum and palladium are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short - term, the volatility of platinum and palladium may still remain at a relatively high level, and investors are advised to control their positions. In the long - term, with the supply gap of platinum still existing and the supply of palladium tending to be loose, the strategy can focus on buying platinum at low prices or adopting a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: The current value is 616.8, the previous value is 583.95, with a rise of 5.63%. [5] - Spot: Gold Exchange - Pt9995 closing price: The current value is 605.53, the previous value is 573.65, with a rise of 5.56%. [5] - Spot platinum (99.95%): The current value is 600, the previous value is 566, with a rise of 6.01%. [5] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 16.8, the previous value is - 17.95, with a decline of 6.41%. [5] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: The current value is 471.9, the previous value is 452.85, with a rise of 4.21%. [5] - Spot palladium (99.95%): The current value is 445, the previous value is 436, with a rise of 2.06%. [5] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 26.9, the previous value is - 16.85, with a rise of 59.64%. [5] International Prices (15:00, US dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum: The current value is 2318.782, the previous value is 2211.121, with a rise of 4.87%. [5] - London spot palladium: The current value is 1742.095, the previous value is 1671.588, with a rise of 4.22%. [5] - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 2327.6, the previous value is 2218, with a rise of 4.94%. [5] - NYMEX palladium: The current value is 1791.5, the previous value is 1719.5, with a rise of 4.19%. [5] Internal - External 15:00 - US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate: The current value is 7.0173, the previous value is 7.023, with a decline of 0.08%. [5] Price Spreads (yuan/gram) - Guangdong platinum - London platinum: The current value is 25.65, the previous value is 19.79, with a rise of 29.62%. [5] - Guangdong platinum - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 23.40, the previous value is 18.03, with a rise of 29.77%. [5] - Guangdong palladium - London palladium: The current value is 27.77, the previous value is 26.35, with a rise of 5.39%. [5] - Guangdong palladium - NYMEX palladium: The current value is 15.17, the previous value is 14.12, with a rise of 7.44%. [5] Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium price ratio: The current value is 1.3071, the previous value is 1.2895, with a change of 0.0176. [5] - London spot platinum/palladium price ratio: The current value is 1.3310, the previous value is 1.3228, with a change of 0.0083. [5] Inventory (ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: The current value is 652841, the previous value is 652841, with a change of 0.00%. [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: The current value is 210029, the previous value is 650012 (data may be lagged), with a change of 0.00%. [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: The current value is 82836, the previous value is 90330, with a decline of 8.30%. [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: The current value is 18042, the previous value is 19343, with a decline of 6.73%. [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: The current value is 20593, the previous value is 22709, with a decline of 9.32%. [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: The current value is - 571, the previous value is 122, with a decline of 568.03%. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 1,004.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.06% to 19,452 yuan/kilogram [6]. - After the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and Trump's radical statements, geopolitical risks and the tight supply of silver spot have driven up the prices of precious metals. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are still potential risks. Investors are advised to control their positions [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the credit risk of the US dollar is increasing. The demand for precious metal allocation by central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The long - term price of gold is likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On January 6, 2026, compared with January 5, London gold spot price was 4,466.61 dollars/ounce (up 1.0%), London silver spot price was 78.96 dollars/ounce (up 4.7%), COMEX gold price was 4,476.70 dollars/ounce (up 1.1%), COMEX silver price was 78.76 dollars/ounce (up 4.7%), AU2602 was 1,004.98 yuan/gram (up 1.0%), AG2602 was 19,457.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.6%), AU (T + D) was 1,002.30 yuan/gram (up 1.0%), and AG (T + D) was 19,468.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.4%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From January 5 to January 6, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 7.6%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 69.4%, the spread of gold TD - London decreased by 9.5%, the spread of silver TD - London decreased by 30.6%, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 5.2%, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 3.4%, the spread of AU2604 - 2602 increased by 5.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 decreased by 61.5% [3]. 2. Position Data - From January 2 to January 5, gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 1,065.13 tons, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.55% to 16,353.59541 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 5.02% to 275,592 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 10.19% to 44,419 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 3.96% to 231,173 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 8.57% to 50,506 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 5.60% to 20,443 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 16.22% to 30,063 contracts [3]. 3. Inventory Data - From January 5 to January 6, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 97,704 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 13.16% to 581,436 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased slightly (0.00%) to 36,403,452 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.06% to 449,521,788 ounces [3]. 4. Other Market Data - From January 5 to January 6, the US dollar index decreased by 0.08%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.02, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.29% to 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.48% to 4.17%, VIX increased by 2.69% to 14.90, the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% to 6,902.05, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 1.78% to 58.35 [5].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.26 with a 2.07 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43 with a 0.26 bp increase, GC001 at 1.74 with a 173.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.57 with a 156.50 bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.32 with a 1.80 bp increase, 5 - year at 1.62 with a 1.00 bp increase, 10 - year at 1.83 with a 1.70 bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 0.00 with no change [3] - The central bank conducted 162 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operation rate of 1.40%, and 3125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan [3] - This week, 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases will mature on Thursday, and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Friday [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 rose 1.9% to 4717.7, the SSE 50 rose 2.26% to 3099.7, the CSI 500 rose 2.49% to 7651.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.09% to 7753.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 28326 billion yuan, an increase of 2651 billion yuan [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with only the beauty and care sector falling [6] - In the short term, the stock index may continue its strong trend, and in 2026, it is expected to rise further on the basis of 2025 [7] - It is recommended that investors choose to build long positions [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Domestic factors have a generally positive impact on the stock index, including improved fundamental data, policy support, good liquidity, and high market risk - appetite [6] - In December 2025, both the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range [6] - In 2026, the "two new" policies were clearly implemented, and the scope of equipment renewal support was broadened [6] - Before the festival, the trading activity of A - shares increased significantly, and the margin trading balance increased [6] - During the festival, the Hong Kong stock market and the A50 index performed actively, and the RMB exchange rate strengthened [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US raided Venezuela, escalating geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026. The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds. The futures market is leading the price discovery mechanism, and although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported. In 2026, the market is expected to remain tight, driven by India's new PTA production capacity and organic demand growth. The PX-naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX-mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. Domestically, PTA maintains high operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread still supports aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high, with an increasing market hoarding willingness, and the basis has strengthened rapidly. Although polyester demand has weakened seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5030 to 5080, with a change of 50; MEG domestic price rose from 3640 to 3666, up 26; PTA closing price increased from 5046 to 5150, a rise of 104; MEG closing price went up from 3732 to 3838, an increase of 106; 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 45; short fiber basis increased from 38 to 40, up 2; 2 - 3 spread increased from 4 to 6, up 10; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, up 6; 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber price difference increased from 1235 to 1280, up 45; East China water bottle chip price increased by 61; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price increased by 61; carbonated polyester bottle chip price increased by 61; outer disk water bottle chip price increased from 795 to 800, up 5; bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 486 to 495, up 10; T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10450 to 10500, up 50; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3940 to 3945, up 5; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged; cotton 328 price increased from 15475 to 15520, up 45; polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1234 to 1187, down 47; primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7215 to 7210, down 5; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 495 to 438, down 56; primary low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged [2]. 2. Market Conditions - Short fiber: The short fiber main futures rose 38 to 6532. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants fluctuated slightly, and traders' prices followed the futures. Downstream purchasing intention was low, while the replenishment of futures and spot merchants increased, and the on-site transactions were okay. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi-gloss natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6430 - 6650 yuan for cash on delivery and tax included self-pickup, 6550 - 6770 yuan in the North China market for cash on delivery and tax included delivery, and 6450 - 6680 yuan in the Fujian market for cash on delivery and tax included delivery [2]. - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6000 - 6110 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures were running warmly, the cost-side support increased, most of the supply-side quotations were raised, the market negotiation atmosphere was relatively dull, downstream end-users restocked for rigid demand, and the market negotiation center shifted slightly upward [2]. 3. Industry Load and Production and Sales - The direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a decrease of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 53.00% to 77.00%, an increase of 24.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pulp is currently pulled by the trading logic of "strong supply" and "weak demand", lacking a clear short - term direction. The 05 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, 2026, SP2601 was 5528 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.02% and a weekly decrease of 0.65%; SP2609 was 5648 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.55% and a weekly decrease of 0.25%; SP2605 was 5612 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.48% and a weekly decrease of 0.32% [6] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, Russian Needle was 5400 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change; Broadleaf pulp Golden was 4720 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.43% and a weekly increase of 1.07% [6] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: For example, Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote increased by 2.94% month - on - month, and its import cost increased by 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish's import cost increased by 3.66% month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Side**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons with a month - on - month increase of 4.92%, and that of broadleaf pulp was 176.5 tons with a month - on - month increase of 33.92%. Suzano announced a full - scale price increase for global broadleaf pulp in January 2026 [6] - **Demand - Side**: Pulp demand has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, and the prices of other paper products are stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper products is stable [6] - **Inventory - Side**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 199.7 tons, a cumulative increase of 9.1 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.8%. The inventory has shifted to a cumulative trend, ending five consecutive weeks of destocking [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA market has cost support and is in the process of inventory reduction, with a narrow upward trend in prices and a strengthening of the spot basis. The demand is gradually weakening, and the processing fee has declined. The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, driven by speculative funds, but there is also fundamental support, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester load remains high, with increased market inventory hoarding willingness and a rapidly strengthening basis [2]. - The MEG market shows a continuous upward trend in futures prices, with the spot price in Zhangjiagang rising accordingly, but the basis negotiation is weakening. Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, but the market supply pressure continues to increase due to new device production. The price is difficult to get effective support under the backdrop of falling coal prices, but it may be supported by domestic policies in the context of carbon neutrality [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 421.7 yuan/barrel on January 5, 2026, to 428.2 yuan/barrel on January 6, 2026, with an increase of 6.50 yuan [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread increased by 56.76 yuan, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0084. The PTA主力期价 rose from 5,046 yuan/ton to 5,150 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5,030 yuan/ton to 5,080 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 46.9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 7.1 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased by 2,238 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 3,732 yuan/ton to 3,838 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 price rose from 3,640 yuan/ton to 3,666 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The PX operating rate remained at 87.87% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate remained at 77.40% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate increased from 60.81% to 60.87%, with an increase of 0.06% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load decreased from 88.10% to 88.04%, with a decrease of 0.06% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The price of FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 62 yuan/ton. The price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 52 yuan/ton. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 50% to 5%, with a decrease of 45% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose by 45 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 53% to 20%, with a decrease of 33% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips rose by 25 yuan/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 27 yuan/ton. The chip sales rate remained at 47% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted, which had stopped at the beginning of last week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 5th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by over 1% with increased trading volume, returning to 4000 points; the ChiNext Index soared nearly 3%. There was a broad - based rally in theme stocks, with nearly 4200 stocks rising in the market. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.38% at 4023.42 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.85%, the BeiZheng 50 rose 1.8%, the KeChuang 50 rose 4.41%, the Wind All - A rose 1.99%, the Wind A500 rose 2.08%, and the CSI A500 rose 2.14%. A - share trading volume for the whole day was 2.57 trillion yuan, compared with 2.07 trillion yuan the previous day [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing prices, daily percentage changes, trading volumes (in billions of shares), and turnovers (in billions of yuan) of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the SSE 50 closed at 3099.7462, with a turnover of 1695.62 billion yuan and a trading volume of 2.26 billion shares, showing a 53.50% change [3] - **CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading**: The trading volume and open interest of call and put options, as well as the PCR (Put - Call Ratio) of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are provided. For instance, the SSE 50 call option trading volume was 3.26 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 2.32 million contracts, and the trading volume PCR was 0.77 [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The historical volatility and volatility cone of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are analyzed, including the 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values, as well as the 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day historical volatilities [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The volatility smile curves and next - month at - the - money implied volatilities of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are presented [3][4]

Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report released by the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on January 6, 2026 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The European line container shipping shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of futures and spot". Freight rates have rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies have a strong willingness to control cabin space and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, and the cabin loading rate has improved. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, and some airlines are tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious. The freight rate may peak in mid - January. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Freight Index Data | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) | 1656 | 1553 | 6.66% | | CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) | 1147 | 1125 | 1.95% | | SCFI - US West | 2188 | 1992 | 9.84% | | SCFIS - US West | 1250 | 1301 | - 3.92% | | SCFI - US East | 3033 | 2846 | 6.57% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1690 | 1533 | 10.24% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1795 | 1742 | 3.04% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 3143 | 2833 | 10.94% | [4] Spot Price of European Line Freight - **GEMINI Alliance**: In wk1 (December 29 - January 4), 20GP is 1585, 40GP is 2550; in wk2 (January 5 - January 12), it is the same as wk1; in wk3 (January 13 - January 20), 20GP is 1635, 40GP is 2650, up 50 and 100 respectively compared to wk1 [5] - **OA Alliance**: In wk1 (December 20 - January 4), 20GP is 1535, 40GP is 2631; in wk2 (January 5 - January 12), 20GP is 1824, 40GP is 3068, a significant increase compared to wk1; in wk3 (January 13 - January 20), it is the same as wk2 [6] - **PA Alliance**: In wk1 (December 29 - January 4), 20GP is 1603, 40GP is 2806; in wk2 (January 5 - January 12), 20GP is 1645, 40GP is 2600; in wk3 (January 13 - January 20), it is the same as wk2 [6] - **MSC**: In wk1 (December 20 - January 4), 20GP is 1700, 40GP is 2840; in wk2 (January 5 - January 12), it is the same as wk1; in wk3 (January 13 - January 20), 20GP is 1880, 40GP is 3140, up 180 and 300 respectively compared to wk1 [6]