Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow. In the short - term, the domestic market is expected to continue to follow the US market with a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Before the release of the USDA report, it will mainly be in a volatile adjustment phase. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report data this Friday and South American weather [10]. 3. Summary by Related Content A. Basis and Spread Data - **Basis**: On November 12, the basis of the Dalian 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) was 61, down 5; Tianjin was down 5; Rizhao was - 39, down 35; Zhangjiagang was - 9, down 15; Dongguan was - 59, down 25; and Fangcheng was - 39, down 25. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 98, down 10 [6]. - **Spread**: The M1 - 5 spread was 209, down 9; RM1 - 5 was 62, down 17. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 398, down 20; the main - contract disk spread was 565, up 11 [6][7]. B. Price and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0785, and the disk crushing profit was 220 yuan/ton, with no change. The estimated import soybean disk gross profit in 2025 was - 251 yuan/ton [7]. C. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - **Supply**: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels/acre may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an increase. There is a risk of relatively dry weather in southern Brazil in the next few weeks, and attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping schedule is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [9][10]. - **Demand**: In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream of soybean meal has been cautious in recent transactions, and the提货 performance has declined [10]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that inventory will start to decrease in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Red Sea crisis has officially ended after two years, and the market balance will shift to shippers in 2026 with supply - demand imbalance intensifying and freight rates falling [6]. - Maersk's twin - star advantage shows with annual cost savings of $7.2 - 9.5 billion and a punctuality rate of over 90%, enabling a strategic position for price war and service premium [6]. - In November, shipping capacity has recovered, with available capacity on US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15%, and overall TPBB route capacity expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88% [6]. - The EC market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness, affected by factors such as 02 contract delivery time changes and Maersk's open - cabin price reduction, as well as the end of the Red Sea armed attacks [7]. - Spot prices show obvious differentiation. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables. In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a strong - side shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI**: The current value is 1495, down 3.59% from the previous value of 1551 [4]. - **CCFI**: The current value is 1058, up 3.60% from the previous value of 1021 [4]. - **SCFI - related routes**: SCFI - US West is 2212, down 16.43%; SCFIS - US West is 1329, up 10.02%; SCFI - US East is 2848, down 17.16%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1323, down 1.56%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1504, up 24.50%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2029, up 2.32% [4]. Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., price changes range from - 4.72% to 0.19% [4][5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions for contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., have different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is 112.8, up 57.2 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 spread is 577.4, up 19.1; the 02 - 04 spread is 464.6, down 38.1 [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline profit and low benzene prices are jointly supporting PX. The gasoline crack spread has risen above $15, prompting refineries to prioritize gasoline production and reduce feedstock for aromatics units. PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new plant commissions. Despite the end of the "Golden September and Silver October," export demand may improve under the easing of the Sino - US trade war. The current peak season for downstream weaving is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether a reduction in Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. Bottle chips and short fibers follow cost trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4600 yuan on November 11 and 12, 2025. MEG inner - market price decreased from 3981 yuan to 3961 yuan. PTA closing price increased from 4648 yuan to 4670 yuan, and MEG closing price rose from 3875 yuan to 3891 yuan. 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6365 yuan to 6382 yuan, and short - fiber basis decreased from 123 yuan to 118 yuan. The 12 - 1 spread decreased from 56 yuan to 44 yuan. Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 yuan to 246 yuan. The price of 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber remained unchanged at 5400 yuan. The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 965 yuan to 985 yuan. The price of East China water - bottle chips decreased from 5712 yuan to 5709 yuan. The price of hot - filled polyester bottle chips decreased from 5712 yuan to 5709 yuan. The price of carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips decreased from 5812 yuan to 2806 yuan. The outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760 yuan. Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 445 yuan to 449 yuan. T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10310 yuan. T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3945 yuan to 3925 yuan. The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained unchanged at 16300 yuan. The price of cotton 328 decreased from 14445 yuan to 14395 yuan. Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1620 yuan to 1625 yuan. The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained unchanged at 7020 yuan. The cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D increased from 553 yuan to 560 yuan. The price of primary low - melting - point short fiber remained unchanged at 7480 yuan [2] 2. Market Conditions - Short - fiber market: The main futures of polyester staple fiber fell 28 to 6242. The prices of polyester staple fiber production plants were stable, and the prices of traders were sorted out. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and on - site transactions were cautious. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - glossy natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6160 - 6460 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up. In the North China market, it was 6280 - 6580 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. In the Fujian market, it was 6180 - 6400 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle - chip market: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly. The supply - side offers were stable or falling. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream terminals mainly had rigid - demand orders. The bottle - chip price decreased slightly [2] 3. Load and Production - Sales Rates - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 85.63% to 85.14%. The polyester staple fiber production - sales rate increased from 37.00% to 38.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%. The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.16% to 945.76 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.02% to 12,073 yuan/kilogram [5] - The US Senate has officially passed the appropriation bill, and the market generally expects the US government to end the shutdown soon, which may mean that the US Treasury's TGA account will release liquidity. The decrease of 45,000 in the number of private - sector employees in the US in October, the largest decline in two and a half years, boosts the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. With the dual expectations of fiscal and monetary liquidity easing, precious metal prices still have some support. However, there are still significant differences within the Fed regarding the December rate cut, so the rate - cut rhythm will affect the upward rhythm and short - term space of gold prices. Silver, with a tight supply, performs stronger than gold, and the domestic futures - spot spread has narrowed to near parity, so the silver price is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions or make long - term allocations by buying on dips [6] - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to make allocations on dips [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Internal and External Market Gold and Silver Prices**: On November 12, 2025, London gold spot was at $4,117.87/ounce, London silver spot was at $51.58/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4,123.00/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $51.46/ounce. Compared with November 11, the price of gold decreased by about 0.3%, and the price of silver increased by about 1.7% - 1.8%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also changed accordingly, with gold down about 0.3% - 0.4% and silver up about 1.6% - 2.02% [5] - **Price Spread/Ratio Tracking**: On November 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.9 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was 0 yuan/kilogram. Compared with November 11, the gold price spread increased by 9.4%, and the silver price spread decreased by 100.0%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 78.34, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 80.12, showing a downward trend compared with November 11 [5] Position Data - As of November 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1,046.36 tons, with a 0.41% increase compared with November 10. The silver ETF - SLV was 15,088.6327 tons, with no change. The non - commercial long - position and short - position holdings of COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding changes, with the long - position of COMEX gold increasing by 1.85% and the short - position increasing by 9.43% [5] Inventory Data - On November 12, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 89,616.00 kilograms, with no change compared with November 11. The SHFE silver inventory was 583,060.00 kilograms, a 1.49% decrease. The COMEX gold inventory on November 11 was 37,575,140 troy ounces, a 0.41% decrease compared with November 10, and the COMEX silver inventory was 478,558,059 troy ounces, a 0.11% decrease [5] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On November 12, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.08, a 0.05% decrease compared with November 11. The US dollar index on November 11 was 99.48, a 0.14% decrease compared with November 10. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries decreased, and the VIX index decreased by 1.82%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 0.21%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 1.65% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Gasoline supply contraction leads to profit expansion, indirectly supporting the price of PX. Sanctions on Russia cause tight supply at the crude oil end, widening the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees are compressed to below 200. Despite the end of the peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), export demand may improve due to the easing of the China-US trade war. Downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November. The impact of potential tariff cuts on domestic exports needs attention [2]. - The inventory of East China's ethylene glycol ports has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The price of ethylene is unable to support the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices, and new plant startups continue to put pressure on ethylene glycol prices. The tightness of spot supply due to low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. Although coal prices have risen, they do not provide strong cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal-based ethylene glycol has been restored. The China-US trade negotiation has reached an agreement, and tariff cuts may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: The PTA spot price decreased from 4,600 yuan/ton to 4,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The PTA main futures price increased from 4,648 yuan/ton to 4,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 192.6 yuan/ton to 173.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.3 yuan/ton. The basis remained unchanged at -77. The number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 93,560 to 98,450, an increase of 4,890 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price increased from 3,875 yuan/ton to 3,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 3,981 yuan/ton to 3,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis decreased from 68 to 66, a decrease of 2 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price increased from 821 to 825, an increase of 4. The PX-naphtha spread increased from 239 to 248, an increase of 10 [2]. Industry Chain Start - Up Conditions - The PX startup rate remained unchanged at 88.03%. The PTA startup rate remained unchanged at 76.31%. The MEG startup rate increased from 63.74% to 64.10%, an increase of 0.36%. The polyester load decreased from 89.70% to 89.07%, a decrease of 0.63% [2]. Product Sales - **Polyester Filament**: The POY 150D/48F price decreased from 6,600 to 6,580, a decrease of 20. The POY cash flow decreased from 83 to 79, a decrease of 4. The FDY 150D/96F price decreased from 6,805 to 6,795, a decrease of 10. The FDY cash flow increased from -212 to -206, an increase of 6. The DTY 150D/48F price increased from 7,860 to 7,865, an increase of 5. The DTY cash flow increased from 143 to 164, an increase of 21. The filament sales rate decreased from 54% to 43%, a decrease of 11 percentage points [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6,365 to 6,385, an increase of 20. The staple fiber cash flow increased from 198 to 234, an increase of 36. The staple fiber sales rate decreased from 41% to 40%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased from 5,595 to 5,575, a decrease of 20. The chip cash flow decreased from -22 to -26, a decrease of 4. The chip sales rate increased from 51% to 57%, an increase of 6 percentage points [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time needs further tracking [2].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.42 with a -9.02bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -2.21bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a -10.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a -3.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58 with no change, and LPR 5 - year stayed at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.35 (-1.80bp), 1.52 (-2.00bp), and 1.80 (-1.60bp) respectively, while 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.09 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 655 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1300 billion yuan [3] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report stated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen policy implementation and transmission [4] - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is an important consideration for monetary policy to keep prices at a reasonable level [4] Group 3: Stock Indexes and Futures - The CSI 300 fell 0.13% to 4645.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 3044.3, the CSI 500 fell 0.66% to 7243.2, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.72% to 7486.4 [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19450 billion yuan, a decrease of 486 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Industry sectors showed more declines than gains, with insurance, mining, pharmaceutical commerce, medical devices, and beauty care sectors leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, non - metallic materials, wind power equipment, power supply equipment, power grid equipment, and electronic chemicals sectors leading the losses [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume increased by 93 to 120690, and its open interest increased by 3.9% to 273421 [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macro news was calm, and the stock index continued to fluctuate. The current macro situation is a mix of positives and negatives, lacking a core driving force [6] - There are disagreements in the market regarding the further increase of technology stock valuations and the transition from a structural market to a full - fledged slow - bull market [6] - Short - term market differences are expected to be digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and new driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [6] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium/Discount - IF showed premiums of 0.79%, 3.80%, 2.76%, and 3.15% for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts respectively [7] - IH had a - 3.33% discount for the current contract and premiums for other contracts [7] - IC and IM contracts generally showed premiums [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives outlooks for various commodities, including "看多" (bullish) for copper, nickel, stainless steel, and soybeans, and "震荡" (sideways) for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, gold, silver, etc. [1] 2) Core Views - The A-share market is currently in a relatively vacuous macro environment, lacking a clear upward trend. It is in a sideways movement, accumulating momentum for the next upward move. With policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the stock index has strong downside support. [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside. [1] - For commodities, different factors affect their prices. For example, high copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - The A - share market is in a sideways trend, accumulating energy for an upward move. With policy and liquidity support, the downside of the stock index is limited. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings restrict the upside. [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] - **Aluminum**: Limited industrial drivers recently, but improved macro sentiment leads to a stronger aluminum price. [1] - **Alumina**: With production still having a small profit, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, resulting in a double - increase in production and inventory, and a weak fundamental pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in LME zinc, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to the domestic supply surplus, caution is needed when chasing high prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The US Senate's progress on ending the government shutdown causes fluctuations in market risk appetite. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material ferronickel weakens, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly. Steel mills' production in November decreases. The stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in a sideways movement. [1] - **Tin**: The raw material end has not recovered, and the new demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Supported by the dual - liquidity easing expectations of the US fiscal and monetary policies, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding a December interest rate cut. The gold price may fluctuate in a high - level range. [1] - **Silver**: Boosted by liquidity, the silver price may be stronger in the short term. [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November is decreasing. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, and the terminal installation in the fourth quarter is increasing marginally. [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure. [1] Steel and Iron - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices. [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro sentiment is realized. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment. [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is struggling at the previous high. Coke's price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the steel - coking game is intense. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: A 4% production cut in Malaysia in early November fails to drive inventory reduction, and the domestic supply in the fourth quarter is relatively loose. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to be long in arbitrage. [1] - **Cotton**: The new domestic cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply changes from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure increases year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw sugar price. [1] - **Corn**: The short - term market has a strong willingness to purchase high - quality corn, and the spot price is firm. The upward movement of the futures price lacks strong drivers before the supply pressure is fully released. [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the purchase progress for the 12 - 1 ship is slow. The domestic futures are expected to follow the US market and move sideways and strongly before the USDA report. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The short - term geopolitical situation cools down, and the market sentiment eases. [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the commodity market sentiment is positive. [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The cost of butadiene provides insufficient support, the synthetic rubber supply is loose, and the price has stopped falling recently. [1] - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price follows the decline of the crude oil price, and the coal - based cost support strengthens slightly. [1] - **Short Fiber**: The short - fiber price closely follows the cost due to the support of PX and the strengthening of the basis. [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the US benzene price rises, and the number of styrene overhauls increases. [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from anti -内卷 policies and the cost end. [1] - **PP**: New production capacity is released, the overhaul intensity weakens, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. [1] - **PVC**: The market returns to fundamentals, the number of overhauls increases slightly, but demand weakens. [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Guangxi alumina starts delivery, the subsequent overhaul concentration decreases, the caustic soda inventory decreases, and there is a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. [1] - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, the CP/FEI price weakens, and the domestic LPG fundamentals are stable. [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The macro - positive sentiment is gradually digested, the peak - season price increase expectation is priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11, the A - share market showed weak consolidation with a slowdown in sector rotation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 4002.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.03%, the ChiNext Index declined 1.4%, the BeiStock 50 decreased 1.02%, the STAR 50 fell 1.42%, the Wind All - A dropped 0.51%, the Wind A500 declined 0.97%, and the CSI A500 decreased 0.84%. The full - day trading volume of A - shares was 2.01 trillion yuan, compared with 2.19 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Performance - **Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was 3034.6329, down 0.63%, with a trading volume of 41.04 billion yuan and a trading volume of 4776.29 million. The CSI 300 closed at 4652.1655, down 0.91%, with a trading volume of 7540.791 billion yuan and a trading volume of 265.25 million. The CSI 1000 decreased by 0.30% with a trading volume of 4048.67 [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, the call option trading volume was 3.13 million, the put option trading volume was 0.73 million, the total trading volume was 3.49 million, the call option open interest was 2.11 million, the put option open interest was 0.66 million, and the total open interest was 7.42 million. For the CSI 300, the call option trading volume was 12.06 million, the put option trading volume was 7.43 million, the total trading volume was 21.23 million, the call option open interest was 4.63 million, and the put option open interest was 11.48 million. For the CSI 1000, the call option trading volume was 22.95 million, the put option trading volume was 12.34 million, the total trading volume was 32.04 million, the call option open interest was 15.31 million, and the put option open interest was 16.73 million [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Smile Curves**: Historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves are provided for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000. For example, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 historical volatility cone shows values such as the 10% - quantile, 30% - quantile, minimum, maximum, 90% - quantile, and the current value, and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility curve is also presented [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the market balance will shift towards shippers, with freight rates continuously falling, and supply chain optimization and data - driven procurement becoming key opportunities [6] - In November, the market demand remains healthy despite the end of the pre - peak season booking rush, and the available capacity on US gateway routes has increased by 10 - 15%. The overall TPBB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88% [6] - The spot prices of different airlines show obvious differentiation, and the key influencing factors for the market are the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airline strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [8] - In the short term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are falsified, the main contracts are likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1495, with a decline of 3.59% compared to the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1058, with an increase of 3.60% [4] - Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 16.43%, SCFIS - US West increased by 10.02%, SCFI - US East decreased by 17.16%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 1.56%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased by 24.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean increased by 2.32% [4] 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - Contract prices show differentiation. For example, the EC2506 contract increased by 2.06%, the EC2608 contract increased by 3.33%, the EC2610 contract increased by 0.30%, the EC2512 contract decreased by 1.81%, the EC2602 contract increased by 5.33%, and the EC2604 contract increased by 1.86% [5] - Contract positions also changed. For example, the EC2606 position decreased by 23, the EC2608 position decreased by 73, the EC2610 position increased by 122, the EC2512 position decreased by 1475, the EC2602 position increased by 4654, and the EC2604 position increased by 279 [5] - The monthly spreads also changed. The 12 - 02 monthly spread decreased by 117.7, the 12 - 04 monthly spread decreased by 53.8, and the 02 - 04 monthly spread increased by 63.9 [5] 3.3 Industry News and Market Analysis - CMA believes that no route can replace the Suez Canal, and it will continue to operate through the Suez Canal and plans to increase voyages through it in the future [6] - Maersk is shifting its strategy, focusing on price wars and a service - premium strategy [6] - Maersk's CEO Vincent is optimistic about returning to the Red Sea and believes that the supply chain will fundamentally change due to Trump's tariffs [6] 3.4 Market Strategy - The overall strategy is to wait and see [9] - For investors, it is recommended to buy on dips for the main contracts, and closely monitor the suspension of voyages and airline loading rates [8]