Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 10, the A-share market showed a divergence between large and small indices, with rapid rotation of market hotspots. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed steadily, while the ChiNext Index fell nearly 1%. The large - consumption sector led the gain, while the robot and electric power grid sectors adjusted. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.53% at 4018.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.18%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.92%, the North - Star 50 Index fell 0.67%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.57%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.38%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.34%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.24%. The total A - share trading volume for the day was 2.19 trillion yuan, compared with 2.02 trillion yuan the previous day. [5] - **Index Data Details**: The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3053.857, with a turnover of 1399.07 billion yuan, a daily increase of 0.51%, a trading volume of 49.08 billion shares, and a turnover of 0.35 billion. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.0507, with a turnover of 236.03 billion yuan, a daily increase of 0.28%, a trading volume of 7563.2535 billion shares, and a turnover of 4337.98 billion. The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 274.36. [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: For the SSE 50, the call option volume was 3.13 million contracts, the put option volume was 3.40 million contracts, the total option volume was 2.14 million contracts, the volume PCR was 0.59, the call option open interest was 7.33 million contracts, the put option open interest was 0.74 million contracts, the total open interest was 1.26 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 4.20. For the CSI 300, the call option volume was 4.43 million contracts, the put option volume was 0.68 million contracts, the total option volume was 20.58 million contracts, the volume PCR was 0.87, the call option open interest was 10.91 million contracts, the put option open interest was 6.48 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 9.58. For the CSI 1000, the call option volume was 23.39 million contracts, the put option volume was 12.75 million contracts, the total option volume was 0.83 million contracts, the volume PCR was 31.57, the call option open interest was 10.64 million contracts, the put option open interest was 15.06 million contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 16.52. [3] Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Smile Curve**: Historical volatility and volatility smile curves are presented for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including historical volatility cones, different percentile values (such as 10%, 30%, 60%, 90%), and next - month at - the - money implied volatility. [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PTA: Gasoline supply contraction expands gasoline profit, indirectly supporting PX price. Due to sanctions on Russia, crude oil supply decreases, and refineries prioritize increasing production of gasoline and diesel. PTA supply slightly contracts, polyester operation is stable, and domestic polyester exports remain optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, export demand may improve under the easing of the China-US trade war. The current peak season is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of China-US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The inventory at East China ethylene glycol ports has significantly increased by 120,000 tons compared to last week. The ethylene price fails to support the rise of ethylene glycol price. New plant startups keep the ethylene glycol price under pressure. The tightness of spot goods caused by low inventory is mainly reflected through the basis. The increase in coal price does not provide strong cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal-based ethylene glycol has been restored. The China-US trade negotiation may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price rose from 460.6 yuan/barrel on November 7, 2025, to 461.8 yuan/barrel on November 10, 2025, an increase of 1.2 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA-SC increased from 1316.8 to 1348.1, an increase of 31.28; PTA/SC increased from 1.3934 to 1.4017, an increase of 0.0083 [2] - CFR China PX price rose from 823 to 828, an increase of 5; PX-naphtha spread decreased from 247 to 246, a decrease of 1 [2] - PTA主力期价 rose from 4664 yuan/ton to 4704 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 4575 yuan/ton to 4605 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] - PTA现货加工费 decreased from 188.8 yuan/ton to 175.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 increased from 262.8 yuan/ton to 274.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [2] - PTA主力基差 remained unchanged at (78); PTA仓单数量 increased from 89012 to 91046, an increase of 2034 [2] - MEG主力期价 rose from 3942 yuan/ton to 3953 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton; MEG-石脑油 decreased from (149.22) to (149.41), a decrease of 0.2 [2] - MEG内盘 decreased from 4013 to 4003, a decrease of 10; MEG主力基差 decreased from 70 to 68, a decrease of 2 [2] Industry Chain Operation - PX开工率 remained unchanged at 88.03%; PTA开工率 decreased from 77.42% to 76.31%, a decrease of 1.11%; MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 63.74%; polyester load remained unchanged at 89.70% [2] Product Sales - POY150D/48F decreased from 6560 to 6555, a decrease of 5; POY现金流 decreased from 54 to 27, a decrease of 27 [2] - FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6770; FDY现金流 decreased from (236) to (258), a decrease of 22 [2] - DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7840; DTY现金流 decreased from 134 to 112, a decrease of 22 [2] - 长丝产销 increased from 48% to 50%, an increase of 2% [2] - 1.4D直纺涤短 remained unchanged at 6415; 涤短现金流 decreased from 259 to 237, a decrease of 22 [2] - 短纤产销 increased from 46% to 66%, an increase of 20% [2] - 半光切片 rose from 5575 to 5595, an increase of 20; 切片现金流 decreased from (31) to (33), a decrease of 2 [2] - 切片产销 increased from 53% to 82%, an increase of 29% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 million-ton PTA plant in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].

the first 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 AG2512 | | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 日期 内外盘金 银15点价 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 2025/11/10 格跟踪 | 4075. 52 | 49. 53 | 4084. 70 | 49.58 | 935.98 | 11719.00 | 933.23 | 11707.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - In the short term, the A-share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy vacuum at the macro level, with low trading volume and a continued volatile trend, currently in an accumulation phase. In the long term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the pace will be gradual. Key factors to watch for future market upswings include further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market and Liquidity - The central bank conducted 119.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 78.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan. This week, a total of 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with daily maturities of 78.3 billion, 117.5 billion, 65.5 billion, 92.8 billion, and 141.7 billion yuan from Monday to Friday [3]. - Interest rates of various financial products changed: DRO01 closed at 1.48% with a 15.21 bp increase; DR007 at 1.50% with an 8.63 bp increase; GC001 at 1.21% with a 0.50 bp increase; GC007 at 1.48% with a 1.50 bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.58% with a 0.40 bp decrease; 5-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.50%; 1-year treasury bond yield was 1.40% with no change; 5-year treasury bond yield was 1.53% with a 0.25 bp decrease; 10-year treasury bond yield was 1.81% with no change; and 10-year US treasury bond yield was 4.11% with no change [3]. Stock Market Conditions - Yesterday, the stock market closed higher. The CSI 300 rose 0.35% to 4695.1, the SSE 50 rose 0.51% to 3053.9, the CSI 500 rose 0.22% to 7343.8, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.28% to 7563.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.1745 trillion yuan, an increase of 175.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with consumer sectors such as brewing, beauty care, tourism and hotels, food and beverages, and commercial department stores strengthening. Precious metals, airports, and jewelry sectors led the gains, while shipbuilding, small metals, and power supply equipment sectors led the losses [4]. - Trading volume and open interest of stock index futures changed: IF trading volume was 106,785, up 23.5%; IF open interest was 268,313, up 4.2%; IH trading volume was 45,910, up 21.4%; IH open interest was 96,711, up 6.3%; IC trading volume was 122,736, up 14.7%; IC open interest was 249,333, up 3.7%; IM trading volume was 194,473, up 3.7%; IM open interest was 354,677, down 0.5% [4]. - The premium and discount rates of stock index futures were as follows: IF premium/discount rates were 4.59% (current contract), 6.26% (near - term contract), 3.29% (quarterly contract), and 3.51% (average); IH premium/discount rates were - 0.04% (current contract), - 1.02% (near - term contract), 0.39% (quarterly contract), and 0.55% (average); IC premium/discount rates were 13.76% (current contract), 18.53% (near - term contract), 10.66% (quarterly contract), and 10.55% (average); IM premium/discount rates were 17.60% (current contract), 13.51% (near - term contract), 23.89% (quarterly contract), and 12.64% (average) [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Gasoline profits and low benzene prices support PX. The gasoline crack spread has risen above $15, prompting refineries to prioritize gasoline production and reduce aromatics unit feedstock. PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Industry profits are still constrained by overcapacity due to new plant commissions. Despite the end of the peak seasons in September and October, export demand may improve under the easing of the China-US trade war. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry is expected to last until November. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of China-US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. Bottle chips and staple fiber costs follow suit [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions of Short Fibers - The price of polyester staple fiber futures rose by 36 to 6238. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production plants remained stable, while those of traders increased slightly. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and on - site transactions were scarce. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6200 - 6460 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6320 - 6580 in the North China market (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and 6200 - 6400 in the Fujian market (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2] Market Conditions of Bottle Chips - The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips increased. Due to the rising polymerization cost, the support for polyester staple fiber strengthened. The prices of manufacturers remained firm, while those of traders increased slightly. Downstream procurement intention was low, and on - site transactions were average. The prices of East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, and carbonated polyester bottle chips all increased, and the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 442 [2] Other Product Information - The price of T32S pure polyester yarn remained unchanged at 10310, and the processing fee was 3895. The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S was 16300, and the profit was 1579. The price of cotton 328 decreased by 25 to 14440. The price of virgin three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) was 7020, and the cash flow of hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D was 542. The price of virgin low - melting - point staple fiber was 7480 [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales Data - The direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) was 93.90%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 94.40%. The production and sales of polyester staple fiber were 48.00%, a decrease of 24 percentage points from 72.00%. The opening rate of polyester yarn (weekly) was 63.50%, unchanged. The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) was 51.00%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 51.50% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5][10] - The overall demand for pulp remains weak, although white cardboard has shown a significant increase in both volume and price, and there have been frequent price increase letters for cultural paper, but whether the price increases can be implemented remains to be observed [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5468 with a daily increase of 1.37% and a weekly increase of 3.05%; SP2511 was 4870 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.66%; SP2605 was 5452 with a daily increase of 1.00% and a weekly increase of 1.98% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 10, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian softwood pulp was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The domestic production of hardwood pulp in November 6, 2025 was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5] - **Demand**: In terms of finished paper production, on November 6, 2025, double - offset paper was 20.80 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.36 tons, and white cardboard was 35.70 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 10, 2025, the basis of Russian pulp was 230 with a quantile level of 0.906; the basis of Silver Star was 630 with a quantile level of 0.873 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Near the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and the domestic cane sugar listing, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly in a weak - oscillating pattern. The large current import volume of raw sugar and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, along with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, are suppressing the futures market. The start of sugar mills in Yunnan and the upcoming concentrated start of sugar mills in Guangxi in mid - to - late November may create new selling pressure. However, as the current futures price is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the futures market is expected to show a resistive decline before the new domestic sugar is listed [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Spot Price - In the domestic spot market, on November 10, 2025, the price per ton of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5730 yuan, down 30 yuan; in Kunming, it was 5650 yuan, unchanged; in Dali, Yunnan, it was 5500 yuan, unchanged; in Rizhao, Shandong, it was 5820 yuan, unchanged [4]. Futures Market Data - SR01 was at 5475, up 18; SRO5 was at 5405, up 8; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 70, up 10 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Futures - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1378, down 0.0015; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The ice raw sugar main contract was at 14.13, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract was at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was at 63.7, unchanged [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend. Currently, domestic and international macro - factors are mixed. Concerns about the continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the decline in China's export growth, and geopolitical factors will continue to affect the commodity market, especially the crude oil market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities fluctuated. Industrial products fluctuated, and agricultural products declined from high levels. The US government shutdown in the first half - week led to risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down global asset prices, while the fall of the US dollar index in the second half - week relieved market pressure and most commodities rebounded [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: The continuous shutdown of the US federal government may impact people's livelihood and society. On October 31, the SRF injected huge liquidity into the market. In October, US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs, the ISM services PMI reached 52.4, but the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100. The eurozone's October composite PMI rose to 52.5, and the service industry PMI reached 53, indicating a stable economy, which may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders on October 30 eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased significantly from October 26 to November 2. The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [3]. - **Commodity Outlook**: The commodity market may maintain a volatile trend due to mixed domestic and international macro - factors, including the US government shutdown, China's export situation, and geopolitical factors [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The ADP data showed that US private enterprises added 42,000 jobs in October, the largest increase since July 2025. The 10 - month ISM services PMI was 52.4, a new eight - month high. However, the non - farm employment decreased by 9,100, leading to selling in US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SOFR rate soared 18 basis points to 4.22% [3][10]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.5, and the service industry PMI was 53, a 17 - month high. The economy showed stable expansion, with the service industry performing better than manufacturing, and significant economic differentiation among countries. This may support the European Central Bank to suspend interest rate cuts [3]. - **OPEC+ Situation**: On November 2, OPEC+ announced production plans for 2026, with WTI showing certain changes in production and price expectations [21]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Foreign Trade Data**: In October, China's exports were $305.4 billion with a year - on - year growth rate of - 1.1%, and imports were $215.3 billion with a growth rate of 1%. The decline in export growth was affected by holidays, high - base effects, and a temporary callback in external demand. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders eased trade frictions, and port shipments increased [26]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank resumed open - market treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan, a net investment of 200 billion yuan in medium - term lending facilities, and a net investment of 400 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases. A 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation will be carried out on November 5, which will support the macro - economy [29]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of November 7, the operating rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 76%, and the POY operating rate was 90%. The national blast furnace operating rate (247 enterprises) and the operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain showed certain trends [32]. - **Automobile Data**: In October, the sales volume and year - on - year growth rate of automobile manufacturers showed certain changes, with different growth rates in different periods [41]. - **Agricultural Product Data**: As of November 7, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables and the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain trends, with price increases of 2.16% and 0.78% respectively [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda has stabilized, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. Multiple factors affect the market, including supply, demand, inventory, etc. Overall, the short - term market lacks a clear trend and is expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main View and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. Regional differences exist, with load increases in the Northwest, Northeast, and South China, and decreases in North China and Central China [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%. The monthly start - up rate of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall production remained basically flat [3]. - **Inventory**: Recently, there has been a lot of delivery, and caustic soda inventory has decreased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 414,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 6.29% and a year - on - year increase of 57.84%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 24.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.39% [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 75, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 45%. Liquid chlorine prices fell, and caustic soda prices stabilized, leading to a decline in overall chlor - alkali profits [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is neutral, and the absolute futures price is low. Near - month contracts are at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no unilateral or arbitrage trading strategies currently. Attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated within a range. This week, Shandong spot prices showed mixed trends but generally remained stable, and the futures price hit a new low. The price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly to - 100 yuan/ton, and the electricity price increased, causing the chlor - alkali profit to approach the break - even point. Three factories have planned maintenance in November. Currently, there is less maintenance, production has increased, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The spot price is expected to stabilize. Future attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices and the alumina production schedule [6]. - **Position**: The total position increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [21]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices have risen [28]. - **Device Loss and Capacity Utilization**: Data shows the historical trends of device loss and capacity utilization [31]. - **Inventory**: Data shows the historical trends of caustic soda inventory, including liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda [31]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. Data shows the historical production in different regions [33]. - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [34]. - **Downstream Price**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [37]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan has increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina has improved, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has decreased, and alumina profit is good and stable year - on - year [49][50][59]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remains stable but is lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and production has started to decline [60][62]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate has rebounded [69]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have planned maintenance, including specific maintenance times and production capacities [74].