1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the lower - end expectation of CB01 US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply - and - demand report [8]. - There is no obvious speculative driver for the South American weather in the short term. The weather in the Argentine production area has been dry recently, but the current soil conditions are suitable, with no obvious adverse effects in the short term. Continued observation is needed. The soybean sowing in Brazil is almost finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. Given the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, attention should be paid to the impact of the selling pressure during the January harvest on the Brazilian CNP premium. The sum of the US market price and the Brazilian premium is expected to have further downside potential. Without special events, the MO5 is still expected to be relatively weak [9]. - In China, the de - stocking of soybeans in January is expected to accelerate. There are concerns about the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter and the extension of customs inspections. The pre - holiday stocking expectation of downstream enterprises is relatively positive, which is beneficial to supporting the domestic spot price trend before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter brings a structural supply problem in China, which supports the M03. The M03 - N06 is still short - term positive arbitrage, with the risk lying in policy changes. Due to the stricter customs inspection policy, the supply delay and shutdown problems, as well as the specific quantity, price and shipping rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed sales, are difficult to predict. Investors are advised to operate with caution [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis data of the main soybean meal contract in different regions on January 5th shows that the basis in Dalian is 406 with a decrease of 5; in Tianjin is 386 with a decrease of 5; in Rizhao is 326 with a decrease of 25. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang is 346 with a decrease of 25, etc [6]. - The spread data includes the RM1 - 5 spread, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot and on the main contract), etc. For example, the RM1 - 5 spread is 252, and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory area is 300 [7]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The 2025 soybean CNF premium in different months in Brazil and the corresponding import soybean gross margin in the same year are presented, along with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and the corresponding disk crushing profit [7]. - The inventory data shows the soybean inventory in Chinese ports, the soybean inventory in major domestic oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises, and the soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills from 2020 to 2025 [7]. 3.3开机 and压榨情况 (开机 and Pressing Conditions) - The data of the soybean pressing volume and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills from 2020 to 2025 are provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical impact on the crude oil market is limited, with crude oil prices falling and the atmosphere in the bulk chemical market being weak. The downstream polyester production and sales are dull, and the PTA market is also declining [2]. - The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, mainly driven by speculative funds. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026 [2]. - Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester demand is affected by the domestic season but the polyester factory's production cuts are not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. - Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and the increase of new device production, the MEG market is under pressure, and its price may be supported by domestic policies under the carbon - neutral background [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Price and Index Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 432.2 yuan/barrel on December 31, 2025, to 421.7 yuan/barrel on January 5, 2026, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC increased from 1969.2 yuan/ton to 1981.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.3 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6270 to 1.6466, an increase of 0.0196 [2]. - CFR China PX price decreased from 894 to 884, a decrease of 10 [2]. - PX - naphtha spread decreased from 364 to 354, a decrease of 10 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price dropped from 5110 yuan/ton to 5046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot price dropped from 5095 yuan/ton to 5030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot processing fee decreased from 344.9 yuan/ton to 343.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9 yuan/ton [2]. - Disk processing fee decreased from 374.9 yuan/ton to 359.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.9 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG main contract futures price dropped from 3803 yuan/ton to 3732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha increased from - 141.47 yuan/ton to - 140.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price dropped from 3681 yuan/ton to 3640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate increased from 86.28% to 87.87%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points [2]. - PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.40% [2]. - MEG start - up rate increased from 60.58% to 60.81%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points [2]. - Polyester load remained unchanged at 88.10% [2]. 3.3 Product Sales and Cash Flow in the Polyester Industry 3.3.1 Polyester Filament - POY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 6505, and its cash flow increased from - 334 to - 265, an increase of 69 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged at 6755, and its cash flow increased from - 584 to - 515, an increase of 69 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 7745, and its cash flow increased from - 294 to - 225, an increase of 69 [2]. - Polyester filament production and sales increased from 31% to 50%, an increase of 19 percentage points [2]. 3.3.2 Polyester Staple Fiber - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6545 to 6510, a decrease of 35 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 56 to 90, an increase of 34 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 59% to 53%, a decrease of 6 percentage points [2]. 3.3.3 Polyester Chip - Semi - bright chip price dropped from 5755 to 5730, a decrease of 25 [2]. - Chip cash flow increased from - 184 to - 140, an increase of 44 [2]. - Chip production and sales decreased from 67% to 47%, a decrease of 20 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted after shutting down at the beginning of last week [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On January 5th, the prices of platinum and palladium rose overall. The PT2606 contract closed up 6.48% to 583.95 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 8.88% to 452.85 yuan/gram. Driven by the significant increase in platinum and palladium prices in the overseas market during the New Year's Day holiday, domestic platinum and palladium prices opened sharply higher and maintained a strong trend. Recently, with the ebb of market sentiment, the premium of domestic platinum and palladium futures over spot and overseas markets has been narrowing, indicating that prices are returning to a more reasonable range. Looking ahead, platinum and palladium are expected to continue a strong and volatile pattern, but short - term volatility may remain relatively high. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand gap of platinum and the relatively loose supply of palladium, it is advisable to allocate platinum at low levels or adopt a "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Price (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures主力收盘价 increased from 527.25 to 583.95, a rise of 10.75%. - Spot: Jinjiaosuo - Pt9995收盘价 rose from 511.5 to 573.65, an increase of 12.15%. - Spot: Platinum (99.95%) increased from 532 to 566, a rise of 6.39%. - Platinum: Basis (spot - futures) decreased from 4.75 to - 17.95, a drop of - 477.89%. - Palladium futures主力收盘价 increased from 425.2 to 452.85, a rise of 6.50%. - Spot: Palladium (99.95%) rose from 412 to 436, an increase of 5.83%. - Palladium: Basis (spot - futures) increased from - 13.2 to - 16.85, a rise of 27.65% [4]. International 15 - point Price (US dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum increased from 1947.6 to 2211.121, a rise of 13.53%. - London spot palladium rose from 1538.22 to 1671.588, an increase of 8.67%. - NYMEX platinum increased from 1970.9 to 2218, a rise of 12.54%. - NYMEX palladium rose from 1583 to 1719.5, an increase of 8.62% [4]. Internal - External 15 - point Spread (yuan) - The dollar/yuan central parity rate decreased from 7.0288 to 7.023, a drop of - 0.08%. - The spread between Guangzhou platinum and London platinum decreased from 29.91 to 19.79, a drop of - 33.85%. - The spread between Guangzhou platinum and NYMEX platinum decreased from 18.03 to 23.96, a drop of - 24.75% (including tax). - The spread between Guangzhou palladium and London palladium decreased from 32.40 to 26.35, a drop of - 18.69%. - The spread between Guangzhou palladium and NYMEX palladium decreased from 14.12 to 20.97, a drop of - 32.64% [4][5]. Price Ratio - The price ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium increased from 1.2400 to 1.2895, an increase of 0.0495. - The price ratio of London spot platinum/palladium increased from 1.2661 to 1.3228, an increase of 0.0566 [5]. Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory remained unchanged at 652841, a change of 0.00%. - NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 210029, a change of 0.00% [5]. Position - NYMEX total platinum position decreased from 97095 to 90330, a drop of - 6.97%. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum decreased from 23293 to 19343, a drop of - 16.96%. - NYMEX total palladium position increased from 22061 to 22709, a rise of 2.94%. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium decreased from 122 to 978, a drop of - 87.53% [5].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock index has risen with increased trading volume and may continue its strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk preference. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue to rise on the basis of 2025 due to continuous macro - policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, capital market reform policies, and the supporting role of Central Huijin. It is recommended that investors mainly choose to build long positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Financial Market Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price and change of various interest rate varieties are presented. For example, DROO1 is at 1.26 with a 2.07bp increase, GC001 is at 1.49 with a - 37.50bp decrease, etc. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The closing price and change of different - term treasury bonds are given. The 1 - year treasury bond is at 1.32 with a 1.80bp increase, and the 10 - year treasury bond is at 1.83 with a - 1.70bp decrease. The 10 - year US Treasury bond is at 4.19 with a 1.00bp increase [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 4823 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 4688 billion yuan. This week, 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases on Thursday and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits on Friday [3][4] Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are reported. The CSI 300 rose 1.9% to 4717.7, and the SSE 50 rose 2.26% to 3099.7. The trading volume of the two markets reached 25675 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5016 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with insurance, medical devices, etc. leading the gains [5] - **Futures Contracts**: The closing prices, daily changes, trading volumes, and open interests of stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided. For example, IF's closing price is 4714 with a 2.0% increase, and its trading volume increased by 20.0% [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The premium and discount rates of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, including next - month, current - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts. For example, IF's next - month contract has a premium rate of 2.63% [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US raided Venezuela, leading to rising geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026 [2] - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026, driven by new PTA capacity in India and organic demand growth [2] - Domestic PTA maintains high operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread still supports aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants keeps the polyester load at a high level, with high PTA consumption and increased market hoarding willingness [2][3] - Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are not enough to form a negative feedback [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5095 to 5030, a change of -65; MEG domestic price decreased from 3681 to 3640, a change of -41; PTA closing price decreased from 5110 to 5046, a change of -64; MEG closing price decreased from 3803 to 3732, a change of -71 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6545 to 6510, a change of -35; short fiber basis decreased from 70 to 38, a change of -32; 2 - 3 spread increased from -4 to 6, a change of 10 [2] - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10450; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3905 to 3940, a change of 35; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16370 to 16400, a change of 30; cotton 328 price increased from 15315 to 15475, a change of 160 [2] Market Conditions - Short fiber: The short fiber futures main contract fell 82 to 6462. In the spot market, the price negotiation of polyester staple fiber production plants declined, and traders' prices followed the futures decline. Downstream rigid demand had a small amount of replenishment at low prices, and the on-site trading was average [2] - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5970 - 6080 yuan/ton. The PTA and bottle chip futures were weakly operating, the supply side mainly lowered the offer, the market negotiation atmosphere improved, and downstream end-users replenished inventory for rigid demand, with the market negotiation center moving down [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - Direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 57.00% to 53.00%, a change of -4.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of precious metals strengthened due to the escalation of geopolitical risks caused by the US military strike on Venezuela, and the geopolitical trend is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices in the short - term [6]. - The spot silver price maintains a high premium, indicating a tight supply pattern that supports the silver price, but there may be game risks. It is recommended to pay attention to important US economic data, the new Fed chairperson, and the results of key mineral tariffs [6]. - Based on the gold - silver ratio at a near - decade low, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying gold on dips [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will persist, dollar credit risk will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **15 - point price of internal and external gold and silver on January 5, 2026**: London gold spot was $4420.31/ounce, London silver spot was $75.44/ounce, COMEX gold was $4429.90/ounce, COMEX silver was $75.25/ounce, AU2602 was 995 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 18260 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 992.10 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18296 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 31, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 4.9%, 2.1%, 5.2%, 1.8%, 6.8%, 1.6%, and 7.1% respectively [5]. - **Price difference/ratio on January 5, 2026**: The gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.9 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was 36 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price difference was - 5.98 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price difference was - 843 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 54.49, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 58.87, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.30 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 13 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 267.1%, - 256.5%, 293.8%, - 26.0%, - 4.7%, - 3.0%, - 12.2%, and - 55.2% respectively [5]. 2. Position Data - **As of January 2, 2026**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1065.13 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 16444.13962 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 290161 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 49461 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 240700 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 55243 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 19359 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 35884 contracts. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were - 0.51%, 0.00%, 3.29%, 5.37%, 2.87%, - 1.41%, - 1.64%, and - 1.29% respectively [5]. 3. Inventory Data - **On January 5, 2026**: SHFE gold inventory was 97704 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory was 669547 kilograms. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 0.00% and - 3.19% respectively. As of January 2, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 36402970 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 449773368 troy ounces. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 0.41% and 0.08% respectively [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - **On January 5, 2026**: The US dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 7.02. As of January 2, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.46, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, VIX was 14.51, the S&P 500 was 6858.47, and NYMEX crude oil was 57.33. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were - 0.08%, 0.19%, 0.00%, 0.24%, - 2.94%, 0.19%, and - 0.14% respectively [5]. 5. Market Review - On January 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.4% to 995 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.16% to 18247 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Influencing Factor Analysis - The US military strike on Venezuela over the weekend led to increased geopolitical risks and uncertainty in the international order. The recovery of safe - haven demand drove up precious metal prices. The geopolitical situation is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices in the short - term [6]. - The silver spot price maintains a high premium, indicating a tight supply pattern that supports the silver price. However, there may be game risks. It is recommended to pay attention to important US economic data, the new Fed chairperson, and the results of key mineral tariffs [6]. 7. Medium - and Long - Term Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will persist, dollar credit risk will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7].

| 半色 会 康 好 日报 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | 2026/01/06 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 执业证号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 | F03117750 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 6000 | JM2609 | RB2610 | 12609 | HC26 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp is currently pulled by the trading logic of "strong supply" and "weak demand", lacking a clear short - term direction. The 05 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 5, 2026, SP2601 futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, up 0.22% day - on - day and down 1.08% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5562 yuan/ton, down 0.14% day - on - day and down 1.56% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5530 yuan/ton, down 0.04% day - on - day and down 1.32% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Coniferous pulp was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4700 yuan/ton, up 0.64% day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star's foreign quote was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's import cost was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month compared to October; broadleaf pulp import volume was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month [6] - **Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Production**: The broadleaf pulp production of 25 countries showed fluctuations from November 2025 to December 2025; the chemi - mechanical pulp production was relatively stable [6] - **Inventory Data**: Pulp port inventory and futures delivery warehouse inventory also fluctuated during the period from November 2025 to December 2025. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 9.1 tons from the previous period, a 4.8% increase [6] - **Finished Paper Production**: The production of various finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated during the same period [6] Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: Suzano announced a full - scale price increase for global broadleaf pulp in January 2026. Goldfish broadleaf pulp increased by 20 dollars in Asia and 120 dollars in Europe and North America [6] - **Demand**: The pulp demand has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products are stable, and the production of major wood - pulp papers is stable [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports has shifted to a cumulative inventory trend, ending the continuous five - week destocking phenomenon [6]

| () () = | 6900 | 6000 | 6300 | 6600 | 5/00 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行情概况 | 12月31日，A股2025年交易收官，上证指数收涨0.09%报3968.84点，深证成指跌0.58%，创业板指跌1.23%，北证50跌 | | | | | | | 0.7%，科创50跌1.15%，万得全A跌0.17%，万得A500跌0.36%，中证A500跌0.28%。A股全天成交2.07万亿元，上日成交2.16万 | 亿元。 | | | | | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求推确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | 免责 | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符 | 合其特定状况,据此投资，责任自负。本报告未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期 | | | | | 声明 | 货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 | | | ...