Workflow
Guo Mao Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
贵金属周报(AU、AG):中美贸易摩擦缓和,贵金属冲高回落-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices first soared and then declined, but still had significant weekly gains. Factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, political turmoil in Europe and Japan, and loan fraud issues in U.S. regional banks increased market concerns about potential risks in the U.S. credit market, boosting the demand for safe - havens and driving up precious metal prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut also contributed to the price increase. However, the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions led to a rapid decline in market risk aversion and a sharp drop in precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, due to the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions, precious metal prices may need adjustment. But considering the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the expected Fed rate cut in October, prices are expected to move in a volatile range. For silver, the tight physical supply in London needs attention. If the shortage is alleviated, silver prices may face further adjustment risks. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid, supported by factors such as the continuous rise of the U.S. federal government debt, expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by central banks [3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips after the adjustment in the long term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 - **Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio**: The report presents the price trends of gold and silver through charts, including London spot gold, Shanghai gold futures, London spot silver, and Shanghai silver futures. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios are also shown [5][6][7][8]. - **ETFs and CFTC Positions**: Charts display the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the holdings of gold SPDR - ETF and silver SLV - ETF. The data shows changes in market sentiment and investment trends [26][27][28][30][31]. - **Inventory Data**: Information on the inventories of gold and silver in SHFE, COMEX, SGE, and LBMA is presented, which can reflect the supply and demand situation in the market [32][33][35][37]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 - **Major Macroeconomic Indicators**: The report tracks indicators such as the U.S. GDP growth rate, manufacturing and service PMI, consumer confidence index, employment data, inflation data, and central bank gold - buying. These indicators can help analyze the macro - economic environment and its impact on precious metal prices [55][56][57][62][68][82]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. GDP has strong growth, but the manufacturing and service PMIs have declined. Employment has cooled significantly, inflation shows signs of rising, and consumer confidence has dropped [55][56][57][62][68]. - **Eurozone Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone GDP has bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI has increased, while the service PMI has declined. Inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK are also presented [77][78][81]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. Global central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, which provides support for the upward movement of the gold price [83][87].
股指期权数据日报-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:31
Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: October 20, 2025 [3] - Research Institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Review Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1% to 3916.23 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%; ChiNext Index rose 0.38%; North Star 50 Index fell 1.3%; STAR 50 Index fell 0.94%; Wind All - A Index fell 0.44%; Wind A500 Index rose 0.03%; CSI A500 Index fell 0.04%. A - share trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan, compared with 2.09 trillion yuan the previous day [4] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 2967.7748, down 1.70%, with a trading volume of 62.68 billion and a turnover of 1487.49 billion yuan [3] - CSI 300 Index fell 2.26% (value N/A), with a trading volume of 256.91 billion and a turnover of 5590.86 billion yuan [3] - CSI 1000 Index closed at 7185.4781, down 2.92%, with a trading volume of 254.33 billion and a turnover of 3838.75 billion yuan [3] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 | 7.47 | 2.83 | 0.70 | 2.94 | 4.64 | 0.61 | | CSI 300 | 22.84 | 12.28 | 0.86 | 7.78 | 10.56 | 0.71 | | CSI 1000 | 44.22 | 22.01 | 0.99 | 11.69 | 22.13 | 0.89 | [3] Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indexes, including different time - period historical volatilities (such as 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day) and the current values compared with different percentile values (10%, 30%, 60%, 90%) [3][4]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The shipping market shows a volatile trend. The European main - contract prices have increased due to the impact of the news that the Ministry of Commerce has taken counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. and its US - related subsidiaries. The European shipping line is in the year - end price - holding stage, with the first round of price - holding in late October showing initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. The market is concerned about the impact of Sino - US relations and relevant policies on the shipping capacity supply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 973, down 4.11%. SCFI - US West is at 1936, up 31.88%; SCFIS - US West is at 862, down 1.60%; SCFI - US East is at 2853, up 16.35%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1145, up 7.21%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1031, down 1.43%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 1613, up 3.53% [4]. - **Contract Freight Index**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price fluctuations are relatively small, with the highest increase of 2.99% (EC5602) and the largest decrease of 0.36% (EC2510) [4]. - **Position and Change**: Positions like EC2606, EC2608, etc., have different changes. For example, EC2606 position decreased by 2, while EC2608 increased by 28 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently - 557.8, down 7.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 spread is 182.7, down 39.2; the 12 - 4 spread is 530.7, down 0.5 [4]. 3.2 Market News - US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the Gaza war cease - fire agreement. There are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5]. - The US may soon announce a tariff exemption list, and lobbying for tariff exemption or inclusion of certain goods is expected to intensify [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [5]. - The White House envoy Steve Witkoff will go to the Middle East on Sunday evening to follow up on the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the discussion of the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) by one year [6]. 3.3 Market Situation and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market is in a volatile state. Affected by the news of counter - measures against relevant companies and concerns about Sino - US relations, the European shipping line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The first round of price - holding in late October stopped the decline, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are also expected [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November blank sailings [6].
聚酯周报:原油延续下跌趋势,聚酯供给端有所收缩-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of polyester has shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, and the PTA port inventory has slightly increased. The PTA basis has stabilized, but the profit has continued to shrink. The PX - naphtha spread is at $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the absolute price has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The overall market is expected to oscillate mainly due to the lack of obvious driving factors [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The trade war may escalate, slightly affecting China's crude oil imports. The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost has weakened, and although the PXN has expanded, polyester has followed the decline in crude oil [4] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the weaving can maintain the load after the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [4] - **Basis**: It is bearish. The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is still very loose [4] - **Profit**: It is bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan, and the PTA processing fee has expanded [4] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the end of the domestic maintenance season, the reforming devices are gradually recovering, and the absolute price of PTA has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices [4] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [4] - **Investment View**: It is oscillating. There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Macro Situation**: On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell said that the US economy seems to be in a stable state, but the government shutdown may affect data collection. On October 17, major European stock indexes fell in early trading, with concerns about the banking industry spreading, and the European defense stocks also attracted attention [8] - **Gasoline**: The shutdown of the US government may affect demand in the off - season. The North American refinery load has declined, the total gasoline inventory has decreased by 1.6 million barrels, indicating strong terminal demand. The price of high - octane aromatics has remained relatively stable, and its spread with RBOB gasoline has remained stable at 68 cents [22] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply Increase**: With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical, the supply of MX is expected to increase in October. The future domestic xylene capacity will continue to be put into production at a high speed, with 1.7 million tons of xylene devices in Jiujiang Petrochemical, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei waiting to be put into production in 2026 [62] - **Market Situation**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price has suppressed the disproportionation profit. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, the operating rate has significantly recovered, and the load has reached a very high level [40][54][62] - **Outlook**: Mixed xylene is facing continuous downward pressure. The profit of both gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming has recovered, but the PTA supply side has shrunk, the processing fee has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity [52][66] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The inventory in East China ethylene glycol ports is still at a low level, the arrival volume at ports is limited, the import volume in the overseas market is expected to decline, and the new domestic devices have put pressure on the price. The coal - to - ethylene glycol operating rate has continued to recover, and the profit has been repaired [80] - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation [81] - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, but the weaving load may decline. The polyester production has increased, and the downstream has entered the off - season [88][90]
蛋白数据日报-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations, but the current domestic crushing profit is poor, which is expected to affect the pace of vessel purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Basis - On October 17th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 132, up 19; in Tianjin it was 112, up 19; in Rizhao it was 82; in Zhangjiagang it was 52, up 39; in Dongguan it was 32; in Zhanjiang it was 82, up 29; in Fangcheng it was 72, up 29. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, and MJ - 5 was 155, down 10 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory area was 300, and the futures spread of the main contract was 562, up 19. The RM1 - 5 spread was 30, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 410 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0897, down 38.00. The futures crushing profit was 297 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has begun, and as of October 14th, the planting rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8][9] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream transactions of soybean meal are apparently light, but the pick - up is good [9]
股指周报(IF&IH&IC&IM):关税摩擦扰动市场,股指下跌-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Exports have performed better than expected. From January to September 2025, China's exports in RMB terms increased by 7.1% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.4% in September, driven by the base effect and the strong performance of mechanical and electrical products [3]. - In September, the year-on-year declines in CPI and PPI both narrowed. The CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly up from -0.4% last month but still lower than the market expectation of -0.1%. The PPI was -2.3%, narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from last month [3]. - The growth rate of social financing has declined, but household deposits have become more active. At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value. The acceleration of government bond issuance is the main factor supporting the high growth rate of social financing stock [3]. - Short - term policy expectations remain. From October 20 - 23, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, analyze and study the current economic situation, and deploy economic work for the second half of the year [3]. - Sino - US tariff policies have escalated, and the Sino - US equity markets have been severely hit. Since early October, the US has introduced a series of restrictive measures against China, and China has taken counter - measures [3]. - The market trading volume shrank last week. The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 21038 billion yuan, 23147 billion yuan, 18835 billion yuan, 17526 billion yuan, and 17598 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 1132.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, market risk appetite may fluctuate. As the adverse factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. It is advisable to focus on risk avoidance in the short term, and the large - cap style may be more resilient. Stock index futures long investors can consider using options tools for risk hedging [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Index Market Review - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.22% to 4514.2; the SSE 50 fell 0.24% to 2967.8; the CSI 500 fell 5.17% to 7016.1; the CSI 1000 fell 4.62% to 7185.5 [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, only the banking (4.9%), food and beverage (0.9%), and transportation (0.4%) sectors rose last week, while the electronics (-7.1%), media (-6.3%), and other sectors led the decline [7]. - As of October 17, the monthly contracts expired. The annualized discounts of the next - month contracts IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 were 5.32%, 1.57%, 17.4%, and 15.51% respectively [11]. - The spread between the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 was at the 94.1% historical quantile level; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at the 34.7% historical quantile level [15]. 2. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - This week, the central bank conducted 6331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase operations in the open market. After deducting the maturity amount, a net回笼 (including treasury cash) of 6979 billion yuan was achieved this week. Next week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [20]. - As of October 16, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24496.3 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin - buying amount to the total market trading volume was 12.3%, at the 98.1% quantile level in the past decade [26]. 3. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 from August; the new order index was 49.7, up 0.2; the new export order index was 47.8, up 0.6 [36]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 in Q2 2025, Q1 2025, and Q4 2024 were 2.49%, 3.32%, and 2.78% respectively; the ROE (TTM) was 9.71%, 9.75%, and 10.09% respectively [40]. 4. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - In September, the Ministry of Commerce stated that relevant departments had introduced more than 30 policies to establish a "1 + N" policy system for service consumption and would introduce a series of targeted documents [45]. - From September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, residents using personal consumption loans for consumption can enjoy an interest - subsidy policy, with a subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point [47]. 5. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50%, down 2 percentage points from the previous value [55]. - In August 2025, the US PCE increased by 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 2.91% year - on - year; the CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year [61]. - Trump has proposed a series of tariff increase measures against China, and China has taken corresponding counter - measures [63][65].
油脂周报(P&Y&OI)-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:18
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报(P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 陈凡生 从业资格号:F03117830 投资咨询号:Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂:三油走势分化,等待趋势性驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | (1)印马棕榈油产地库存高位;(2)大豆油厂压榨量增加;(3)国内棕榈油和豆油库存反弹。 | | 需求 | 观望 | (1)产地方面印尼B50积极推进中;(2)美国生柴RVO未落定,或视贸易摩擦结果而定;(3)国内旺季成色偏差,油脂成交量较同期偏低。 | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 国内油脂总库存有所累库,但主要原因是假期提货量减少,基于大豆油厂降压榨挺价、菜籽油厂缺少菜籽的情况,后续油脂库存预计整体走低。 | | 宏观及政策 | 观望 | (1)中美领导人会面前摩擦不断,不确定性增加;(2)印尼官方宣布B50处于道路实验中,预计明年 ...
国债周报(TL&T&TF&TS):债期企稳修复-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:18
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the Treasury bond futures market strengthened significantly, with the 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts rising 1.67% and 0.29% respectively. Market sentiment improved, as shown by the stronger performance of 30 - year contracts and the narrowing of various spreads. The trigger for this repair was the escalation of Sino - US conflict, and the subsequent pricing may need correction. A - share weakness might be an important factor for bond strength. Macro data indicates that domestic demand is moderately recovering, and inflation and financial data suggest the economy is showing signs of stabilization, but the recovery foundation needs to be consolidated [5]. - In the short term, due to increased market risk - aversion, loose domestic liquidity, and expectations of further monetary policy easing, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain strong. However, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade friction and the release of important domestic economic data. In the long - term, due to insufficient effective demand and potential trade frictions, deflation is likely to continue, and the bullish logic of bonds may persist under the support of monetary and fiscal policies [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Market performance: The 30 - year main contract (TL2512) and 10 - year main contract (T2512) of Treasury bond futures rose 1.67% and 0.29% respectively this week. The 30 - year contract was stronger than others, and spreads were narrowing [5]. - Reasons for market changes: The escalation of Sino - US conflict was the trigger, and A - share weakness might be an important factor. Macro data showed that domestic demand was recovering, with core CPI rising and PPI's decline narrowing. Financial data indicated that the economy was showing signs of stabilization [5]. - Short - term and long - term outlooks: In the short term, supported by risk - aversion, loose liquidity, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to be strong. In the long - term, due to insufficient demand and potential trade frictions, deflation may continue, and the bullish logic of bonds may last [9]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data on open - market operations (both quantity and price), medium - term lending facilities (quantity, price, and maturity), various interest rates (such as reverse - repurchase rates, MLF rates, and deposit - class pledge - style repurchase rates), and other liquidity - related indicators through multiple charts, including trends over different time periods [10][11][15] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on Treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for different maturities (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) through multiple charts, showing their trends over time [42][45][60]
PVC周报(PVC):宏观情绪消退,盘面价格底部震荡-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:15
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报(PVC )】 宏观情绪消退,盘面价格底部震荡 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 叶海文 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号:Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号:F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:宏观情绪消退,盘面价格底部震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (1)本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整,基本面难改供大于求格局,PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升,市场需求维持平淡。(2)本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | 供给 | 偏空 | 率在76.69%环比减少5.94%,同比减少1.31%;其中电石法在74.71%环比减少8.23%,同比减少1.94%,乙烯法在81.26%环比减少0.64%,同比减少0.40%; | | | (3)本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在7.89万吨,较上期增加3.58万吨。本周检修较 ...
有色金属周报:全球贸易摩擦反复,有色板块高位回落-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 05:14
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 全球贸易摩擦反复,有色板块高位回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-10-20 分析师:方富强 从业资格证号:F3043701 投资咨询证号:Z0015300 分析师:谢灵 从业资格证号:F3040017 投资咨询证号:Z0015788 助理分析师:陈宇森 从业资格证号:F03123927 助理分析师:林静妍 从业资格证号:F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜(CU) 03 锌(ZN) 04 镍(NI) 不锈钢(SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 ...