Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is that it is expected to run strongly [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly due to low valuation, with the lowest delivery cost of log futures being 810 - 820 yuan/m³, while the supply shows a slight increase and the demand is neutral, and the inventory situation is also neutral [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, which has a bearish impact on the market [3][27] - **Demand**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. Due to the Sino - US trade war, there is an expected increase in the external market quotation of logs, and the demand is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%, and the inventory situation is neutral [3][36] - **Valuation**: The current lowest delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³, with a low valuation, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, a 11 - 1 positive spread is recommended, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures fluctuated significantly. After a sharp decline, the futures price was lower than the lowest delivery cost, and the spot price was firm with the inventory not reaching the inflection point, so it is expected to run strongly. The log futures contract's total open interest was 21,452 lots as of October 17th, a 9.2% increase from the previous week, and the open interest of the main contract 2601 was 14,247 lots, an 89.5% increase from the previous week [6][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17th, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased to varying degrees. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. Imports from New Zealand were 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. Radiata pine imports were 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [23] - **New Zealand's Log Shipment and Delivery**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%, and the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [3][27] - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.46 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; spruce/fir inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1,892,000 cubic meters, a 6.65% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 880,900 cubic meters, a 3.89% increase from the previous week [36] - **Domestic Log Outbound Volume**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,400 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 17,900 cubic meters, a 31.94% decrease from the previous week [38] - **Wooden Square Data**: As of October 17th, the wooden square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were both 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, also unchanged from the previous week [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping index shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness due to factors such as the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations. The spot freight rate has a mixed impact, with price increases planned but also uncertainties. Political and economic factors are complex, including the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, potential tariff adjustments, and diplomatic meetings. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, with changes in weekly average capacity deployment in different months and overall loading rates lower than in previous years. The demand is also neutral, with a differentiation in loading rates among shipping alliances. The first round of price support in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the market has entered the second round in early November, with more price - support attempts in the next two months. However, future trends still depend on changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and the situation of empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts** - **Spot Freight Rate**: It has both positive and negative impacts. In late October, the overall price increase was expected to be between 1800 - 2000, but finally landed at 1500 - 1800, and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: There are many uncertainties. For example, the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has core issues to be resolved, Egypt has suffered shipping losses due to Houthi attacks, the US may adjust tariffs, and there are diplomatic meetings to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 305,000, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than in previous years [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. There is a differentiation in loading rates among alliances. PA + MSC has a relatively low loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, it is on hold. Risks to focus on include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data charts showing the trends of European line index, US West line index, US East line index, and Mediterranean line index, as well as the spot quotes of Maersk's European line [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data charts showing the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [14] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data charts showing the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [17][19] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data charts showing the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: There are data charts showing the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods [23][25][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data charts showing the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [30] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the new - building price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities [30][32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [36][38][40][42] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships** - There are data charts showing the total existing shipping capacity, the existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, the existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age by loading capacity [45][46][48][49][52][54] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are data charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, the shipping capacity deployment of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN in different weeks [60][62][64][66][68] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers** - There are data charts showing the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, the number and proportion of container ships being installed with desulfurization towers, the average age and duration of retrofitting desulfurization towers, and the average speed of container ships [71][74][75][77] - **Idle Shipping Capacity** - There are data charts showing the idle shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, the idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, the hot - idle shipping capacity, and the shipping capacity of ships being retrofitted with desulfurization towers [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price is continuously falling. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral; inventory is on the high side; profit and valuation are on the low side; and the basis is neutral [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 26,000 tons to 830,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 81.4%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. Loads in various regions declined [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased to 88.61%, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease. The comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.63% compared to before the holiday. The monthly startup rate of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall production was basically flat [3]. - **Inventory**: Recently, the shipment pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a 4.25% week - on - week decrease and a 13.83% year - on - year increase. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 23.09%, a 0.33% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 93, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 337 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from last week. The overall chlor - alkali profit increased this week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is neutral, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - The futures market fluctuated within a range. The spot price in Shandong was stable with a slight increase, and the futures price reached a new low. The subsidy for liquid chlorine decreased, its price rose to 50 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit remained high. After the holiday, demand improved slightly, and restocking demand increased. In the future, the new maintenance of alumina will increase, and the supply - demand of caustic soda will turn to be loose, so the spot price is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [7]. - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts added positions [25]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price stabilizes [33]. - **Upstream Production**: Production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [36]. - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China increased, and production decreased [39]. - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [40]. - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [43]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [55][56][66]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [67][68]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [75]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in October and November [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the overseas recession trading, styrene follows the cost downwards. Its cost is weakening and is expected to be mainly bearish, showing an oscillating trend. The investment strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Styrene**: Affected by multiple factors, it is expected to be mainly bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $252. Non - integrated production profit is still negative. The port inventory has a small decline, but market expectations are poor. Supply increases after maintenance, and overseas demand is decreasing. The inventory shows a mixed situation, with the total port inventory decreasing by 2.67% and the commodity inventory increasing by 4.38%. The basis is stable, and concerns about supply - side raw material reduction due to overseas sanctions exist. The profit situation is not optimistic, and the valuation is neutral due to the significant decline in crude oil prices and the inflow of overseas pure benzene. The macro - policy also has a bearish impact. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Crude Oil**: In the recession trading, it is weakly operating [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene is declining, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly. The domestic pure benzene production and related indicators show certain trends, and overseas demand drags down the pure benzene price [13][24][36]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas demand affects its price. The profit of aniline is gradually recovering, and the European and Asian benzene markets have different price and spread situations. The domestic market atmosphere is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing while imports are declining [36][85][93]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: The domestic demand is okay, but the supply is strong. The inventory, production capacity utilization rate, and profit indicators show certain trends [51]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: The inventory is rising, and the profit is declining [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: The inventory is accumulating [75]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The profit is gradually recovering [85]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory is further declining [96]. - **Adipic Acid**: The production load is declining [107]. - **Caprolactam**: The production is stable, but the price is falling [118]. - **Household Appliances**: The export demand is decreasing year - on - year [128].

2012 31 2025-10-20 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 国庆节后国内商品走势偏弱，其中，黄金涨幅居前，工业品、农产品均多数下跌。中美贸易冲突再起，市场避险情绪高涨，黄金价格续创新高，大宗商品普遍走 | | | 弱，不同品种间跌幅略有差异。 | | 海外 | 1）国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布了最新《世界经济展望》，指出全球仍处于"低增长、高不确定性"的轨道，但新兴市场展现出超预期韧性，外部环境阶段性 | | | 有利，且政策框架显著提升——货币政策更透明与独立、通胀预期更锚定，外汇干预减少；财政政策更趋反周期、债务可持续性改善，但部分经济体财政缓冲消 | | | 耗加快，一旦全球流动性再收紧，脆弱性可能暴露。2）美联储释放偏鸽的信息，美联储主席鲍威尔在宾夕法尼亚州费城举行的全国商业经济学会中发表讲话：9 | | | 月会议以来美国经济前景未发生显著变化，但就业市场的下行风险有所增加，同时明确表示美联储可能在未来几个月停止缩减资产负债表规模。3）美国联邦储备 | | | 委员会发布经济状 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillating" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship - buying is expected to affect the ship - buying progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on single - side trading. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies and South American weather in the later stage [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. The estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has room for downward adjustment. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 11.1% as of October 14, higher than last year but lower than the five - year average. Domestic soybean inventories are expected to decline in October, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under Sino - Canadian trade policies, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, but the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, it is bullish, while in the long term, it is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and a high proportion in feed, but its downstream trading is light, while the downstream trading and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, and that for rapeseed meal is bullish. Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises also decreased. Domestic rapeseed inventories have dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories are being depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - It is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - It is bullish. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation, while from the perspective of basis, it is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - It is neutral. Recently, Sino - US trade sentiment has been volatile, and market sensitivity has decreased. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US meeting at the APEC Summit on October 30 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increased, while that of global soybeans decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [34][40]. 3.2.2 Planting and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - rate data of US soybeans are presented, and the domestic crushing profit of US soybeans is declining [49][54]. 3.2.3 Trade and Import - This week, the US soybean export sales data was not released. Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean futures margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profits are provided. The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are also presented [66][73][76]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Processing - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, soybean meal inventories in oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in major domestic regions is also presented. Data on the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided [82][89][96]. 3.2.5 Trading and Consumption - The trading of soybean meal is light, but the pick - up is at a high level. Data on the trading volume, pick - up volume, and apparent consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The monthly output data of feed are also provided [105][106][112]. 3.2.6 Breeding Industry - Data on the breeding profits, prices, weights, and slaughter volumes of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented [120][129][133].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific products: - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish [8] - **Polysilicon**: Sideways [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish [88] 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the new energy sector have not changed significantly, but news has triggered market fluctuations. For example, the polysilicon futures price rose due to the news of a capacity storage platform, but the market sentiment may drive the price down after the rumor was confirmed false [9]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so the silicon price may be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are pushed up in the short - term due to supply - demand mismatch, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [8][88]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Colored and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes of various有色金属 and new energy products. For example, the current price of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 97,500 tons, a 2.09% increase from the previous week. The production in the northwest region is increasing. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month, and the planned production in October is 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from September [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon and silicone has decreased. For example, the weekly production of polysilicon is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: The dominant inventory is 696,100 tons, a 0.31% increase from the previous week, with a 21.52% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, remaining the same as last week, and the profit per ton is 132 yuan, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the silicon price may be weak [8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from September [9]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.66 GW, a 0.11% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.31 GW, a 3.16% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 26,350 tons, a 3.78% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 25,830 tons, a 5.77% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,493 yuan, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,107 yuan, a 50 - yuan increase from last week [9]. - **Macro Factor**: On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a document emphasizing not to bid below cost [9]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the price may return to the previous sideways range after the false rumor [9]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The planned production in October is about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from September [88]. - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month [88]. - **Demand**: - **Lithium Salt Materials**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,200 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 19,000 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week [88]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.96% increase from the previous month [88]. - **Energy Storage**: From January to August, the cumulative domestic energy - storage winning bid power was 41.09 GW/111.43 GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase year - on - year [88]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 132,700 tons, a 1.59% decrease from the previous week. Lithium salt factory inventory is 34,300 tons, a 1.34% decrease from the previous week [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica - extracted lithium is 75,870 yuan/ton, a 2.49% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5,918 yuan/ton, a 1,397 - yuan increase from last week [88]. - **Investment View**: Bullish. Strong terminal demand stimulates downstream purchases, leading to inventory reduction. Although production has increased, which may suppress the futures price, the short - term supply - demand mismatch pushes up the price [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is under negative pressure in terms of supply, demand, and inventory. It is recommended to conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp futures are at an absolute low, with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano raised prices in Asia and Europe in September 2025, and Arauco adjusted its quotes. Although the阔叶浆 outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive periods, the针叶浆 outer - market quotes decreased. South American exports increased in September, and supply is expected to remain loose [3]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp paper products did not rise significantly. Paper mills maintained just - in - time replenishment, and there was no boost to pulp prices [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.1% month - on - month decline, showing a narrow downward trend [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. It is recommended to wait and see as pulp futures are at a low level with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no recommendation; for arbitrage, conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the removal of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: This week, the pulp fundamentals remained stable, with the futures price fluctuating at a low level. The old warehouse receipt problem remains unsolved, and the near - month contract is under pressure [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broad - leaf pulp was stable, while the price of softwood pulp declined. Specifically, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4,830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 250 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [15]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In September, the price of broad - leaf pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased. Arauco adjusted its quotes in August and September [18]. - **Position**: As of October 17, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 394,124 lots, up 0.46% from last week; the position of the main contract was 179,966 lots, up 36.73% from last week [21]. Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamentals Data - **Import Volume**: In August, the import volume of pulp and wood chips decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, down 7.79%; the softwood pulp import volume was 614,000 tons, down 4.95%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.258 million tons, down 6.88%; the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.259 million tons, down 6.11% [4]. - **Inventory**: Chinese port pulp inventory was stable, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp mills was stable. As of the end of July, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 47 days, with 50 days for bleached softwood pulp and 45 days for bleached hardwood pulp [32][36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 17, 2025, among the four major wood - pulp papers, the price of white cardboard increased, while the prices of the other three remained stable. In September 2025, the production volume of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper products remained stable [40][47][54]. - **European and American Demand**: In September 2025, the available days of European softwood pulp inventory decreased by 3.7 to 26.5, and that of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 4.2 to 26.7. As of August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down month - on - month [72]. Part Four: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis weakened. As of October 17, 2025, the basis of Shandong Buzhen pulp was - 292 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star pulp was 398 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - 1 spread narrowed to - 284 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from last week [80]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 17, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 162 yuan/ton, up 4.6 yuan/ton from last week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 31 yuan/ton, up 3.4 yuan/ton from last week [81].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the significant adjustment of precious metal prices on the night of last Friday, they may turn to a volatile trend due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the mitigation of political turmoil in Japan. However, due to the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, precious metal prices are unlikely to continue to decline. Silver may face further adjustment risks if the physical shortage in London eases [6]. - In the long - term, the gold price is likely to continue to rise as the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, US debt is unsustainable, and central banks around the world continue to buy gold. Long - term investors are advised to go long on dips [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - On October 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.82% at 999.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.06% at 12,249 yuan/kilogram [3][5]. b) Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: From October 16 to 17, London spot gold rose 3.2% to 4360.01 dollars/ounce, London spot silver rose 2.6% to 54.21 dollars/ounce. COMEX gold rose 3.2% to 4372.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 2.3% to 53.15 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2512) rose 3.5% to 999.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (AG2512) rose 1.9% to 12249.00 yuan/kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from - 1.82 yuan/gram on October 16 to - 2.8 yuan/gram on October 17, with a change rate of 53.8%. The spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from - 27 yuan/kilogram to - 29 yuan/kilogram, with a change rate of 7.4% [5]. c) Position and Inventory Data - **Position Changes**: From October 16 to 17, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.85% to 332,808 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43% to 66,059 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased by 0.97% to 72,318 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% to 20,042 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: From October 16 to 17, SHFE gold inventory increased by 4.50% to 84,606 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.33% to 920,103 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 39,107,098 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.53% to 509,459,321 troy ounces [5]. d) Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On October 17, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.09, the US dollar index was 98.56, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 20.78, the S&P 500 was 6664.01, and NYWEX crude oil was 57.25 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have been continuously falling, and asphalt prices are slowly following the downward trend. The overall situation in October shows an increase in supply. Although some refineries have shut down, demand has declined due to the rainy season in the north, resulting in the off - peak season for asphalt. The general trend will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Two information companies' tracking data shows that the planned production of local refineries in October is 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although some refineries are in maintenance or intermittent production, overall market supply shows an increasing trend [3] - **Demand**: Affected by factors such as logistics restrictions during the National Day, domestic asphalt market demand has declined. However, there are still some construction rush expectations in the market. The total shipment this week is 393,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [3] - **Inventory**: Factory inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Social inventories are decreasing, especially in the north [3] - **Cost**: After the National Day, crude oil prices have been continuously falling. Multiple factors such as trade tensions, supply warnings, and geopolitical issues have affected the decline of crude oil prices. Currently, Brent crude has fallen to the important support level of $60 [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is also oscillation, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3] Part Two: Price - The report presents charts of the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [5][6][9][11] Part Two: Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: Charts show the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [14][16] - **Basis**: Charts show the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, and Shandong) from 2020 to 2025 [18] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: Charts show the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [22][24][25][28] - **Capacity Utilization**: Charts show the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [33][35][37][38][39][40] - **Maintenance Loss**: Charts show the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [44] Part Two: Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: A chart shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [47][48] - **Diluted Asphalt**: Charts show the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [50][51][52] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Charts show the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [56][58][59] - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [61][62] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: Charts show the shipment volume of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [65] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 to 2025 [67][68][69][71][73][74]