Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The paper pulp futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the fluctuations may be large due to the positive factors on the supply side and the tight delivery resources for near - month contracts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 3, 2025, SP2601 was 5458 with a daily increase of 2.44% and a weekly increase of 4.80%; SP2512 was 4772 with a daily increase of 1.23% and a weekly increase of 1.02%; SP2605 was 5506 with a daily increase of 2.61% and a weekly increase of 4.68% [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 3, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5450 (unchanged daily, up 0.93% weekly), Russian Needle was 5250 (unchanged daily and weekly), and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4500 (up 2.27% daily and weekly) [6] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (dollars/ton)**: In December 2025, the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680 (unchanged monthly), Brazilian Goldfish was 540 (up 1.89% monthly), and Chilean Venus was 590 (unchanged monthly) [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: In December 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 (unchanged monthly), Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 (up 1.87% monthly), and Chilean Venus was 4830 (unchanged monthly) [6] Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 (unchanged from September), and that of broad - leaf pulp was 131.8 (down 2.80% from September) [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: For broad - leaf pulp in November 2025, the production was 25.2 on November 27; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.7 on November 27 [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the paper pulp port inventory was 217.2 (down 0.1 from the previous period, a 0.05% decrease), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 [6] - **Demand (10,000 tons)**: In November 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 20.80 on November 27, copper - plate paper was 8.50, tissue paper was 28.49, and white cardboard was 38.40 [6] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On December 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 478 with a quantile level of 0.949, and the Silver Star basis was 678 with a quantile level of 0.896 [6] - **Import Profit**: On December 3, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 109 with a quantile level of 0.45, and that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 75 with a quantile level of 0.726 [6] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco Company's November quotes were 550 dollars/ton for broad - leaf pulp Star and 620 dollars/ton for natural pulp Venus. Canadian pulp mills have reduced production [6] - **Demand**: Recently, wood - pulp paper producers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of white cardboard price increases is good, and double - offset paper has issued price - increase letters again [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the inventory in China's main paper pulp ports was 217.2 tons, showing a slight de - stocking trend [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On December 2nd, the A - share market fluctuated and declined, with most theme stocks correcting and the market showing a lack of highlights. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55% at the mid - day session to 3892.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.77%, the ChiNext Index declined 0.88%, the North Securities 50 fell 0.29%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 decreased 1.18%, the Wind All - A dropped 0.72%, the Wind A500 declined 0.69%, the CSI A500 fell 0.71%, and the half - day trading volume of A - shares was 1.06 trillion yuan [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance** - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 2978.4671, with a turnover of 791.66 billion yuan, a trading volume of 33.48 billion, and a decline of 0.51%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4554.3347, with a turnover of 3643.66 billion yuan, a trading volume of 148.49 billion, and a decline of 0.48%. The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 3202.19, with a decline of 1.00% [3] - **CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation** - **SSE 50 Options**: The trading volume of call options was 6.72 million contracts, the trading volume of put options was 1.69 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.25. The open interest of call options was 3.92 million contracts, the open interest of put options was 2.80 million contracts, and the open interest PCR was 0.72 [3] - **CSI 300 Options**: The trading volume of call options was 6.03 million contracts, the trading volume of put options was 17.49 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 2.90. The open interest of call options was 7.61 million contracts, the open interest of put options was 10.13 million contracts, and the open interest PCR was 1.33 [3] - **CSI 1000 Options**: The trading volume of call options was 14.35 million contracts, the trading volume of put options was 6.74 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.47. The open interest of call options was 15.87 million contracts, the open interest of put options was 15.08 million contracts, and the open interest PCR was 0.95 [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **SSE 50 Volatility** - Historical volatility was analyzed using the historical volatility cone, with the current value presented. The volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was also provided [3][4] - **CSI 300 Volatility** - Similar to the SSE 50, historical volatility was analyzed with the historical volatility cone and the current value, and the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was shown [3][4] - **CSI 1000 Volatility** - Historical volatility was analyzed through the historical volatility cone and the current value, and the volatility smile curve of the next - month at - the - money implied volatility was presented [3][4]

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's procurement demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to South American weather changes. Weather speculation would be bullish for the single - side and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from the expected Brazilian bumper harvest from December to January, which will drag down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The spread between 103 - 105 is expected to be in a positive spread, with the risk lying in the domestic reserve release situation [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Information - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending stock of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further revised down due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September. CONB predicts that the new Brazilian crop output in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons [7]. - As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 78% (last week: 60%, same period last year: 83.3%, five - year average: 75.8%). As of November 26, the Argentine soybean planting progress was 36% (last week: 24.6%, same period last year: 45%) [7][8]. - Short - term weather shows no obvious drought problem, but attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally destock. There is uncertainty in domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year, and attention should be paid to reserve release [8]. Demand - side Information - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the pig farming industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventories and weights, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream transactions and good提货 performance recently [8]. Inventory - related Information - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period. The soybean meal inventory is being destocked slowly, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate destocking from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. Price - related Information - On December 2, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95 (down 6), in Tianjin was 55 (down 26), and in Rizhao was - 25 (down 36). The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 15 (down 6), in Dongguan was - 25 (down 6), in Zhanjiang was - 25 (down 6), and in Fangcheng was - 25 (down 16). The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 81 (up 76) [4]. - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 622 (up 6) [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: DREIE (equity index), Copper, Zinc, Tin (medium to long - term), Short - fiber [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Mono - crystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Bilateral steel, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Silicon carbide, Rare earth metals, Soda ash, Coke, Coking coal, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Livestock, Crude oil, Natural gas, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, TEPG, PG [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Fuel oil, Asphalt, Benzene ethylene [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's oscillating adjustment, and the index may rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The support from Central Huijin provides a buffer, and the risk of index decline is controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut improves the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on the prices of various metals and energy - chemical products. The fundamentals of different industries also play a crucial role in price trends [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **DREIE**: The market divergence will be digested during the index's adjustment, and the index may rise further. The support from Central Huijin reduces the downside risk. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and industrial support lead to a strong price [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is positive, and the price has rebounded due to limited industrial drivers [1]. - **Alumina**: The production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price oscillates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The reduction in processing fees leads to a production cut in December, supporting the price, which is oscillating strongly in the short - term but with upward pressure [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation warms the sentiment. The impact of Indonesia's restrictions on smelting projects is limited. The price has rebounded after a decline and may oscillate with the macro - environment. The long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The raw material price has stopped falling, and the futures price oscillates. Short - term trading is recommended, and a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy can be considered [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa support the price. The demand pressure remains, and chasing high prices requires caution. The medium - to long - term outlook is positive [1]. Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: After a sharp rise and fall, the short - term upward trend may slow down, and the price will oscillate. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in December provides support [1]. - **Platinum**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the [long - platinum short - lithium] arbitrage strategy can be continued in the medium - term [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in the northwest is recovering, and the production in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The production schedule in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in organic silicon [1]. - **Mono - crystalline silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally, and large manufacturers are reluctant to deliver goods [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and Bilateral steel**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis - positive arbitrage positions. Do not chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese silicon and Silicon carbide**: The direct demand is fair, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, and the inventory is accumulating, limiting the price rebound [1]. - **Rare earth metals**: The supply and demand are supportive, and the valuation is low, but the price fluctuates strongly due to short - term sentiment [1]. - **Soda ash**: It follows the trend of glass, but the supply and demand are average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. - **Coke and Coking coal**: The valuation suggests that the price decline is approaching the end. The downstream may start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. Short - term trading is recommended for now [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. The downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is currently in a state of "supported but lacking drivers" [1]. - **Corn**: The short - term downstream inventory is low, and the market acquisition enthusiasm is high. The spot price is firm, and the futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Weather changes in South America should be monitored [1]. - **Pulverized coal**: The futures price has risen sharply due to low - warehouse - receipt trading, and the short - term fluctuation is expected to be large [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weak but have been priced in the market. Chasing short positions after a large price decline has a low risk - return ratio [1]. - **Livestock**: The spot price has gradually stabilized. The demand provides support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel oil and Asphalt**: They have a negative outlook due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the possible falsification of demand, and high profits [1]. - **BR rubber**: There is strong raw material cost support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the inventory may accumulate. The high - inventory situation restricts the price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and factors such as India's cancellation of import certification restrictions improve the export prospects and boost the purchasing sentiment [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the price decline due to inventory accumulation. The cost support from coal is weakening, and the expected new device production suppresses the price increase [1]. - **Styrene**: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced gasoline demand in the US [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: The supply pressure is high due to factors such as high operating loads and new capacity releases, while the downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are factors such as delivery delays of alumina, high operating loads, inventory pressure in Shandong, and the risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **TEPG and PG**: The geopolitical and tariff situations are easing, and the market is expected to return to a loose fundamental logic. The price of PG oscillates in a range after a decline [1]. Others - **Container shipping on European routes**: The price increase in December fell short of expectations, the peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After several days of recovery and rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, leading to a significant contraction in A-share trading volume and an adjustment in stock index fluctuations. The upcoming Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - to late December will provide guidance for next year's policy focus and market capital allocation. The current market adjustment offers opportunities for the stock index to rise further next year, and traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rate Data - DR001 closed at 1.30, down 0.87bp; DR007 closed at 1.44, down 1.71bp; GC001 closed at 1.41, down 5.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.49, down 0.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58, unchanged; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.36, up 1.40bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.56, up 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.83, up 0.30bp; 10 - year US treasury bond remained at 4.10 [3]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 156.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume all at 156.3 billion yuan. With 302.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal for the day was 145.8 billion yuan. This week, 1.5118 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [3][4]. Stock Index and Futures Data - The CSI 300 closed at 4554, down 0.48%; the SSE 50 closed at 2978, down 0.51%; the CSI 500 closed at 7040, down 0.87%; the CSI 1000 closed at 7313, down 1.00%. The trading volume of the two - stock markets was 1.5934 trillion yuan, a contraction of 280.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with pharmaceutical commerce, shipbuilding, railway and highway, and packaging materials sectors leading the gains, while energy metals, precious metals, biological products, small metals, motors, education, and non - metal materials sectors leading the losses. In terms of futures, IF contracts showed corresponding price and volume changes [5]. Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF's current - month contract had a premium of 8.74%, next - month contract 6.51%, current - quarter contract 4.25%, and next - quarter contract 4.33%; IH's current - month contract had a premium of 5.09%, next - month contract 3.61%, current - quarter contract 1.66%, and next - quarter contract 1.67%; IC's current - month contract had a premium of 17.72%, next - month contract 13.01%, current - quarter contract 11.06%, and next - quarter contract 11.40%; IM's current - month contract had a premium of 21.60%, next - month contract 16.39%, current - quarter contract 14.10%, and next - quarter contract 13.65% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have risen significantly, with the futures market showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The market may trade again on the potential shortage of new warehouse receipts. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be highly volatile, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: SP2601 is 5328 yuan/ton, up 2.66% week - on - week and 2.23% day - on - day; SP2512 is 4714 yuan/ton, up 0.81% week - on - week and 0.04% day - on - day; SP2605 is 5366 yuan/ton, up 2.09% week - on - week and 1.78% day - on - day - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5450 yuan/ton, up 0.93% week - on - week and 0.93% day - on - day; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and day - on - day; Hardwood pulp Goldfish is 4500 yuan/ton, up 2.27% week - on - week and 2.27% day - on - day [6] 3.1.2 Outer - market Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - market quotes: Chilean Silver Star is 680 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish is 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus is 590 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month - Import costs: Brazilian imports are 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus is 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, the import volume of pulp was 173 tons. The import volume of coniferous and hardwood pulp was 69.1 and 131.8 tons respectively, with a month - on - month change of 0.00% and - 2.80% - The domestic production volume of hardwood pulp on November 27, 2025 was 25.2 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [6] 3.2.2 Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.2 tons, down 0.1 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The inventory in futures delivery warehouses was 21.1 tons [6] 3.2.3 Demand - The production volume of finished paper: Double - offset paper was 20.80 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.49 tons, and white cardboard was 34.50 tons [6] 3.3 Valuation Data - Basis: The Russian Needle basis was 0.45, and the value was 536; the Silver Star basis was 0.928, and the value was 736 - Import profit: The import profit was - 109 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - **Steel**: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [3] - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect spot exposures [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Speculators should mainly go long on far-month contracts at low prices [3] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward momentum of steel prices is weak, and the black sector is in a range-bound pattern. There is support at low prices due to potential restocking, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production cut logic and observe the start of winter storage restocking [3] - The prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand, despite strong cost support [3] - The decline in coking coal spot auction prices has narrowed, and some coal varieties have rebounded slightly. The futures are still weak. It is expected that the previous low will form strong support, and far - month contracts can be bought at low prices [3] - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range. Due to increasing inventory pressure, it is advisable to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **December 2nd Closing Prices and Changes**: The far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, JM2605 closed at 3169.00 yuan/ton, 3322.00 yuan/ton, 775.50 yuan/ton, 1764.50 yuan/ton, and 1179.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 25.00 yuan, 15.00 yuan, 3.50 yuan, 21.50 yuan, and 15.50 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.80%, 0.45%, 0.45%, 1.23%, and 1.33%. The near - month (main) contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 closed at 3133.00 yuan/ton, 3325.00 yuan/ton, 800.50 yuan/ton, 1629.50 yuan/ton, and 1096.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 11.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, 4.00 yuan, 39.00 yuan, and 20.00 yuan, and the corresponding percentage changes were 0.35%, 0.30%, 0.50%, 2.45%, and 1.86% [1] - **Cross - month Spreads and Changes**: On December 2nd, the cross - month spreads RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, JM2601 - 2605 were - 36.00 yuan/ton, 3.00 yuan/ton, 25.00 yuan/ton, - 135.00 yuan/ton, and - 83.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 3.00 yuan, - 4.00 yuan, 1.50 yuan, 15.50 yuan, and 7.00 yuan [1] - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits and Changes**: On December 2nd, the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, coal - to - coke ratio, rebar paper profit, and coking paper profit were 192.00 yuan, 3.91, 1.49, - 60.33 yuan, and 171.16 yuan respectively, with changes of - 1.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 5.18 yuan, and 5.35 yuan [1] Spot Market - **December 2nd Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3320.00 yuan/ton, 3240.00 yuan/ton, 3560.00 yuan/ton, 2990.00 yuan/ton, and 107.80 respectively, with changes of 10.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.45 [1] - **Base Prices and Changes**: On December 2nd, the base prices of HC main contract, RB main contract, I main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract were - 5.00 yuan/ton, 187.00 yuan/ton, 9.00 yuan/ton, 158.19 yuan/ton, and 123.50 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 2.00 yuan, 11.00 yuan, - 2.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and - 128.50 yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of new domestic sugar crops has increased year - on - year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face pressure on the upside and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Sugar Market Data - On December 2, 2025, the price in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5565, down 20; the price in Rizhao, Shandong was 5750, unchanged. The SR01 price was 5382, down 23; the SRO5 price was 5316, down 17. The SR01 - 05 spread was down 6. The basis of Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi to SR01 was 183, up 3; the basis of Rizhao, Shandong to SR01 was 268, up 23 [4]. International Market Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0953, up 0.0043; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.74, unchanged; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 63.33, unchanged [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is mainly concerned about demand changes, with weekly demand remaining stable and prices being supported. In the medium - term, due to the continued release of energy storage demand, prices tend to rise, but there is downward pressure on prices in the short - term [3]. - The news that the certification materials of Ningde Times' Xiakeng Mine are complete and have been received is expected to get the certificate in mid - January at the latest and as early as December, and the subsequent impact of this mine on prices will gradually decrease [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 94,400 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 91,950 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts from 2607 to 2611 are all down, with the decline ranging from 0.64% to 0.94% [1]. Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,184 US dollars, down 6 US dollars [1]. - The prices of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) are down by 20, 25, 150, and 225 respectively [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,500 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the prices of ternary materials 811 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and 613 (single - crystal/power type) remain unchanged [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,450 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2,160 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton [2]. - The differences between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract and the second - continuous contract are 2,120 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton) and - 280 yuan/ton (up 160 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Inventory - The total inventory is 115,968 tons (weekly), down 2,452 tons; the inventory of smelters is 24,324 tons (weekly), down 1,780 tons; the inventory of downstream is 41,984 tons (weekly), down 2,452 tons; the inventory of others is 49,660 tons (weekly), up 1,780 tons; the registered warehouse receipts are 8,992 tons (daily), up 770 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 95,626 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2,534 yuan/ton; the cash cost of外购锂云母精矿 is 94,173 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 3,390 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - The new energy storage installed capacity in China exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan, accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity. During the peak summer period this year, the peak call of new energy storage exceeded 30 million kilowatts [3]. - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2,452 tons [3].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/12/3 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/12/1 | 2025/12/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 7 | 453.8 | -1.90 | 成交情况: PTA:成本支撑,PTA缓慢去库存中,下游刚需偏稳, | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1450. 4 | 1454. 2 | 3.81 | PTA行情小涨。而PTA仓单数量较多,PTA现货基差上涨 之力。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4380 | 1. 4410 | 0. 0030 | | | | CFR中国PX | 849 | 849 | 0 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 277 | 282 | 5 | | | | PTA主力期 ...