Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is that the oil price will show a weak and volatile performance in the short - term, rated as "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical situation cools down, and supply - demand shows a bearish trend. Although the US attitude towards tariffs on China eases, short - term oil prices will still show a weak and volatile performance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production in 2025. For example, EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid production to be 10,585 million barrels per day, up 267 million barrels per day from 2024. In September 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries also saw production increases [3] - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have different forecasts. EIA raises the demand forecast, OPEC keeps it unchanged, and IEA slightly lowers the growth rate forecast. In 2025, the demand forecast ranges from 10,399 million barrels per day (EIA) to 10,514 million barrels per day (OPEC) [3] - **Inventory (Short Term)**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels in the week ending October 10, 2025. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. There were also changes in refined oil inventories [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries agreed to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels in November. The IEA points out that the crude oil market may shift from tight balance to slight oversupply in the next few months [3] - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: The US and Russia plan to hold a new round of summit on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the UK has imposed severe sanctions on Russia's oil - related fields [3] - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: The Fed may stop quantitative tightening in the next few months, and China and the US agree to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [3] - **Investment View**: Short - term oil prices will show a weak and volatile performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Both arbitrage and unilateral trading are advised to wait and see [3] 2. Main Weekly Data Change Review - **Price Changes**: SC crude oil decreased by 6.34% to 432.6 yuan/barrel, Brent crude oil decreased by 1.21% to 61.34 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.70% to 57.25 dollars/barrel [5] - **Inventory Changes**: There were changes in various inventories such as US + Europe + Singapore oil product inventories, Chinese oil product inventories, and crude oil port inventories [5] - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Changes**: There were significant decreases in the warehouse receipt quantities of FU high - sulfur fuel oil and LU low - sulfur fuel oil [5] 3. Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Geopolitical situation cools down, and oil prices maintain a weak trend. As of October 17, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined [9] - **Month - spread and Internal - External Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads continued to narrow [10] - **Forward Curve**: The forward premium structure was strengthened [23] - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [26][35] 4. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In September 2025, global crude oil production increased. Non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and the US weekly crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels per day [55][70] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventory increased, Cushing inventory decreased, Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [81][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand and refinery operating rate decreased. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly, and refinery profits also showed a downward trend [107][116][125] - **Macro - finance**: The Fed's interest - rate cut was implemented, and the US dollar index rebounded [138] - **CFTC Position**: The speculative net short position of WTI crude oil decreased [146]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is "oscillating", indicating that in the short - term, it may maintain a weak performance [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. Factors such as产区 weather improvement expectations may loosen raw material price support, while mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and post - holiday downstream operating rates may rise. However, external macro disturbances are negative [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In domestic production areas, Yunnan has some rainfall disturbances but overall supply is okay with slightly lower raw material purchase prices; Hainan's rainfall affects rubber tapping, and supply increase is slow. In Thailand, the northeast and north have less rainfall, and the price of raw material cup - rubber has dropped significantly; the south has irregular rainfall, and the glue price has stopped falling and rebounded. In Vietnam, the weather has improved, and glue supply is normal [3]. - **Demand**: It is neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points; the semi - steel tire sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [3]. - **Inventory**: It is bullish. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 0.08%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 420,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. After the holiday, the RU - mixed spread has narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot has continued to shrink. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts has also narrowed [3]. - **Profit**: It is bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, the theoretical production profit of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has improved, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex has still been in the loss range but has recovered significantly [3]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a medium - to - high level, and the overall valuation is still at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: It is bearish. Affected by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the overall bearish performance of the commodity market [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, buy RU on dips; for arbitrage, go long on BR/NR and short on RU, and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed variety [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: The supply - side volume increase expectations are strengthening, and rubber maintains a weak performance. As of October 17, the RU main contract closed at 14,695 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 620 yuan/ton (- 4.05%); the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,225 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 125 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have loosened [9]. - **Position on the Futures Board**: The position of the RU2601 contract is relatively low, while the total position of NR has increased, and the RU - NR spread has significantly narrowed [16][23][30]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas has decreased [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have declined [49]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+ 1.76%) [62]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+ 4.25%) [72]. - **China's Imports**: From January to August, China imported 4.1214 million tons of natural rubber (+ 19.47%). In September 2025, China imported a total of 742,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 20.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. From January to September, the total import was 6.115 million tons, a 19.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [85][91]. - **Mid - Stream Inventory**: China's social inventory has significantly decreased. As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [101][109]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: After the holiday, tire capacity utilization has rebounded. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [110][117]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, automobile sales growth accelerated, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, an 82% increase compared to the same period last year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to August, tire exports were 6.19 million tons (+ 5.1%) [137]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, while the delivery profit of full - latex is in a loss [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for both LLDPE and PP, the short - term investment view is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market for LLDPE and PP lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected that the prices will mainly oscillate. The market has returned to fundamentals due to the fading of macro - sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period, mainly due to new maintenance at several plants [2] - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate of LLDPE/LDPE increased by 1.64% compared to the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 52.95 million tons, an 8.37% month - on - month increase. The social sample warehouse inventory was 54.56 million tons, a 4.03% month - on - month increase and a 10.85% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of imported polyethylene warehouses increased by 3.32% month - on - month and decreased by 21.57% year - on - year [2] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 323, with the futures price at a discount [2] - **Profit**: Coal - based and ethane - based production costs increased by 3 and 39 yuan/ton respectively, while oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production costs decreased by 249, 200, and 66 yuan/ton respectively. International oil prices fell this week [2] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [2] PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.22%, a 0.47% month - on - month increase; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 81.01%, a 1.32% month - on - month increase [3] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85%. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers increased with the cooling weather, while the PP pipe industry was affected by rainy weather. The demand in multiple fields such as food and daily necessities was good before the e - commerce festivals [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 67.87 million tons, a 0.40% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons, a 1.16% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of trading companies decreased by 2.25 million tons, an 8.60% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 29, with the futures price close to parity [3] - **Profit**: This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production improved, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. International oil prices fell [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and trading has returned to fundamentals, with the futures price oscillating weakly [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 2.54% to 6551 yuan/ton; PE futures price decreased by 2.32% to 6874 yuan/ton; PP spot price decreased by 3.24% to 6580 yuan/ton; LLDPE spot price decreased by 2.62% to 7050 yuan/ton [5] - **Production**: PP production increased by 13.61%; PE production decreased by 2.05%; HDPE production decreased by 1.39% [5] - **Start - up Rates**: PP start - up rate decreased by 2.60% to 38.6%; PE start - up rate decreased by 2.61% to 81.76% [5] - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 1.58% to 42970 tons; PE social inventory increased by 3.02% to 66.47 million tons; HDPE social inventory data was unavailable; PP warehouse receipts increased by 2.02% to 14313 hands; PE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% to 12685 hands [5] - **Downstream Start - up Rates**: The agricultural film start - up rate increased by 20.44% to 42.89%; the packaging film start - up rate decreased by 1.32% to 52.19%; the PP pipe start - up rate decreased by 0.89% to 36.6%; the injection - molding start - up rate decreased by 7.57% to 53.48% [5] - **Cost and Profit**: PP weighted profit increased by 5.66% to - 509.7718 yuan/ton; PE weighted profit decreased by 237.96% to 46.287134 yuan/ton [5]

、责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况追究法 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 直纺短纤负荷(周) 93.90% 94. 40% 0. 01 涤纶短纤产销 79.00% 81.00% 2. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 63. 50% 63. 50% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51.00% 51. 50% 0. 01 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 宏興宗德■ T325纯漆炒价格 (器比) 照日后 (石井) 条短现金流 =1.4D直线大提 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 300 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 宏观消息扰动，煤炭成本支撑 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-20 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 甲醇各地现货价格（元/吨） 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：宏观消息扰动，煤炭成本支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周国内甲醇装置检修与重启同步进行。宁夏、山西及华东地区有部分装置检修停车，但前期停车装置逐步恢复生产。减产装置增加，前期恢复装置减少，整体损失量多于恢 | | | | 复量，导致产量减少。 | | | | 下游消费量中，主要下游MTO消费量变动有限，其他下游消费量下跌为主。近期国内烯烃装置整体运行平稳。新疆一套 20 万吨装置已重启，但暂未达满负荷；宁夏、内蒙古个 | | 需求 | 中性 | 别烯烃厂暂停甲醇外采，导致主力下游实际需求有所收缩。不过后续内蒙古 80 万吨烯烃装置预计持续外采，或对南北线市场形成支撑，需关注河南乙 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the weak and volatile crude oil market, and its price has declined. The supply side of PTA has shrunk, and its processing fee has continued to be low. The industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity due to new device commissioning. With the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the impact of the trade war on textile and clothing demand, and the PTA operating rate may further decline. It is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the decline in crude oil prices [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, and the arrival volume at ports within the week is still limited. Overseas imports of ethylene glycol are expected to decline, while domestic device commissioning has put continuous pressure on the price of ethylene glycol. As the polyester peak season is coming to an end and the crude oil fundamentals are weak, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 443.8 yuan/barrel on October 16, 2025, to 432.6 yuan/barrel on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 11.20 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased by 27.39 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0186. CFR China PX decreased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 9. The PTA main futures price dropped by 54.0 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price dropped by 15.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee decreased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 36.8 yuan/ton. The MEG main futures price dropped by 86.0 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha decreased by 8.2 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 84.62%. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.63% to 77.58%, the MEG operating rate decreased by 0.66% to 65.84%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 89.38% [2]. Polyester Filament - The prices of POY150D/48F and FDY150D/96F decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton and 45.0 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of DTY150D/48F increased by 20.0 yuan/ton. The POY cash flow remained unchanged at 126, the FDY cash flow increased by 30.0 to (199), and the DTY cash flow decreased by 35.0 to 191. The long - filament sales rate decreased by 25% to 67% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the cash flow remained unchanged at 381, and the short - fiber sales rate decreased by 3% to 84% [2]. Polyester Chip - The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton, the chip cash flow remained unchanged at 46, and the chip sales rate decreased by 137% to 188% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence between weak propane and strong butane, with the valuation of domestic PG rising. Although the CP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the month, the continuous increase in upstream crude oil production and the oversupply in the market led to a weak performance of chemical products. However, the PG valuation has been repaired this week. Overall, there are few short - term positive factors for PG, and its price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various energy and chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,220 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.12%, a weekly increase of 3.69%, a monthly decline of 0.59%, and an annual decline of 9.48% [3] 3.2 LPG Market Analysis - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 550,100 tons (a 1.27% increase). The commercial volume of domestic gas was 221,700 tons (a 1.79% increase), industrial gas was 211,700 tons (a 0.14% decrease), and ether - after C4 was 180,400 tons (a 0.73% increase). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 560,000 tons (no change). Some manufacturers in South China and North China increased the commercial volume [4] - **Demand**: It is neutral. In October, the combustion demand for LPG is in the off - season. In the deep - processing of C4, the demand for n - butane is insufficient, and the device profit loss intensifies. In the deep - processing of C3, the demand for alkanes is weak, and the operating rate has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 184,100 tons (a 3.56% decrease), and the port inventory was 3.1804 million tons (a 3.01% decrease). The domestic LPG market storage capacity utilization rate decreased this week, with a slight increase in inventory in Shandong and Central China, and a relatively smooth inventory reduction in East and South China [4] - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China is 200.40 yuan/ton, in South China is 345.00 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 173.00 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts is 2,300 lots, a decrease of 12,227 lots [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 68.76%, 54.89%, and 45.27% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are - 433 yuan/ton, - 187 yuan/ton, and - 86 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 1.33 (a 10.71% increase), and the PG main - secondary monthly spread is 137 yuan/ton (a 75.64% increase) [4] 3.3 Market Trend Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated upwards, with a fluctuation range of 4,040 - 4,270 yuan/ton. Affected by the bearish pressure of crude oil, the international LPG market also dropped significantly. After the National Day holiday, the disk gap - opened lower and then oscillated at a low level. Due to the increase in domestic supply and weak fundamentals, both spot and futures prices declined, but the futures rebounded in the second half of the week, and the basis weakened [7] 3.4 LPG Futures Price and Spread Overview - The report provides the current values, week - on - week and month - on - month changes, and scores of LPG futures prices, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads. For example, the current value of PG01 is 3,935 yuan, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.04% [11] 3.5 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of Chinese main refineries, local refineries, LPG factories, and PDH devices, including the refinery name, location, processing capacity, maintenance device, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [13][14] 3.6 Price and Spread Charts - The report includes various price and spread charts, such as CP propane and butane prices, FEI propane and butane prices, MB propane and butane prices, propane - butane spreads, and ratios between propane/butane and WTI/Brent [15][23][27] 3.7 Inventory and Production Data - The report presents data on LPG imports, exports, port inventories, refinery inventories, production, and self - use, as well as charts showing the trends of these data [146][152][168] 3.8 Deep - Processing Profit Data - The report provides data on the deep - processing profits of alkanes and olefins, including PDH to propylene/PP/PP powder profits, MTBE profits, and alkylation oil profits, as well as the operating rates of relevant devices [191][204][210] 3.9 Research Center Introduction - The Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures has a team of 6 members with professional backgrounds in finance, statistics, and chemical engineering. The team members have rich experience in industry fundamentals and spot - futures research in the energy and chemical sector, and have won many awards [217]

| | | | | | | | Hart Article Fix | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/20 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | 1000 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests a unilateral "oscillatory upward" trend and an arbitrage strategy of "long BR, short NR/RU" [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of butadiene provide some support, and the profit has improved. The valuation of cis - butadiene rubber has recently been repaired. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot trading rhythm [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec's high - cis butadiene rubber price was cumulatively reduced by 300 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies reduced the price by 500 yuan/ton. The cost situation of cis - butadiene rubber has slightly improved. Due to device maintenance, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease. Affected by macro news and downstream price - pressing purchases, the spot negotiation price has declined. At the end of the cycle, the price of the cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot markets rebounded rapidly [7]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 102,200 tons (-2.36%), with a capacity utilization rate of 65.79%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 30,000 tons (0.18%), with a capacity utilization rate of 74.82%. Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants were in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or restart, affecting production volume [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but there are differences in shipment performance [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.99%; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%. There is concern about the inventory increase due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels and sufficient expected imports in October [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - The BR cross - variety spread and month - to - month spread, as well as the seasonality analysis of RU - BR, NR - BR, and BR - SC, are presented in the report. The RU - BR spread was 3,770 yuan/ton (-7.94%), the NR - BR spread was 1,300 yuan/ton (15.04%), and the BR - SC ratio was 0.52% [3][12]. 3.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 124 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 1,816.55 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.39% [3]. 3.6 Device Operation Analysis - Multiple butadiene and butadiene rubber plants are in different states of operation, maintenance, or shutdown. For example, many butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi and Sierbang are in a shutdown state, and some butadiene rubber plants like Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical are under maintenance [3][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - High demand stimulates downstream to increase lithium carbonate purchases, driving social inventory reduction. The increase in lithium carbonate production may suppress futures prices. In the short - term, supply - demand mismatch pushes up prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,350 with a rise of 350; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,100 with a rise of 350 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 846 with a rise of 17; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 1100 with a rise of 50; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 1825 with a rise of 70; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) average price is 6400 with a rise of 265; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) average price is 7550 with a rise of 300 [1][2] Futures Contracts - Carbonate lithium 2510 closing price is 75,300 with a 2.23% increase; carbonate lithium 2511 closing price is 75,700 with a 2.55% increase; carbonate lithium 2512 closing price is 75,860 with a 2.4% increase; carbonate lithium 2601 closing price is 75,780 with a 2.32% increase; carbonate lithium 2602 closing price is 75,540 with a 2.39% increase [1] Price Differences - Electric - industrial grade lithium carbonate price difference is 2250; electric carbon - main contract price difference is - 2350 with a change of - 410; near - month - first continuous contract price difference is - 160 with a change of 40; near - month - second continuous contract price difference is - 80 with a change of 60 [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,658 with a decrease of 2143; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,283 with a decrease of 464; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,735 with a decrease of 2030; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,640 with an increase of 350; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 30,686 with an increase of 230 [2] Profit Estimation - Cash cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,442, and the profit is - 2159; cash cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate is 77,485, and the profit is - 7190 [3] Technological Breakthrough - Chinese researchers solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research team developed an anion regulation technology, and the results were published in the journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" [3]