【基本面跟踪】 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 集运指数（欧线）：短线偏强 2025 年 9 月 26 日 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,173.0 3.99% | | 38,888 35,526 | | -5,414 | 1.09 | 1.14 | | | EC2512 | 1,783.1 6.21% | | 23,493 22,995 | | 389 | 1.02 | 1.16 | | | EC2602 | 7.85% 1,696.2 | | 5,485 8,709 | | 666 | 0.63 | 0.57 | | | EC2510 - EC2512 | -610.1 | | EC2512 ...

2025 年 9 月 26 日 品 研 究 原油：裸多止盈，节前做多波动率、正套持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.01 美元/桶，跌幅 0.02%，报 64.98 美元/桶；布伦特 11 月原油期货 收涨 0.11 美元/桶，涨幅 0.16%，报 69.42 美元/桶；SC2511 原油期货收涨 2.20 元/桶，涨幅 0.45%， 报 491.10 元/桶。 1、主要地区原油套利 | 目标 | 基准 | 替代 | | 价值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场 | 原油 | 原油 | 状态 | （$/bb | 说明 | | | | | | l） | | | | | Arab Extr | | | 炼厂配置为 FCC & HCU（裂解）；使用长期运输安排；市 | | USGC | WTI | a | Close | -5.93 | 场结构调整至 73 天交付；贸易流包含 USGC 从沙特进口总 | | | MEH | | d | | 量（不分等级）； ...

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/9/25 | 李先飞 | 王蓉 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixi ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 25 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | | T | | | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 20705 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | 20 | -205 | 105 | 455 | | | | | | | 20805 | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | ー | l | l | l | | | | | | | 2655 | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | ರ | -32 | ୧୧ | 138 | | | | | | | 107916 | 沪 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - LPG is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] - Propylene is expected to be weak at a high level in the short term [2] Group 2: Core Views - The report provides an analysis of the fundamentals, market trends, and relevant data of LPG and propylene futures, including price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and industry operating rates, as well as market news and equipment maintenance plans [2][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,325 with a daily increase of 0.46% and a night - session closing price of 4,345 with a 0.46% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,245 with a 0.24% increase and a night - session closing price of 4,258 with a 0.31% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,357 with a 0.47% increase and a night - session closing price of 6,364 with a 0.11% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,392 with a 0.47% increase and a night - session closing price of 6,399 with a 0.11% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2510, the trading volume yesterday was 4,697, a decrease of 2,154 from the previous day, and the open interest was 9,199, a decrease of 1,919; for PG2511, the trading volume was 54,716, a decrease of 9,470, and the open interest was 87,780, an increase of 1,266; for PL2601, the trading volume was 2,754, a decrease of 1,441, and the open interest was 12,184, a decrease of 23; for PL2602, the trading volume was 2, a decrease of 11, and the open interest was 596, a decrease of 1 [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 225 yesterday, down from 245 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 335, down from 355; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 128, down from 158; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 7, down from 23; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 82, down from - 52 [2] - **Industry Key Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 64.6%, down from 70.5% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.6%, up from 61.7%; the alkylation operating rate was 46.3%, up from 44.0% [2] 2. Market News - On September 24, 2025, the October CP paper - cargo price of propane was 544 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 522 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 558 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH device and LPG factory device maintenance plans, including specific information such as enterprise names, device types, production capacities, maintenance start and end times [8] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]

尿素基本面数据 2025 年 09 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 尿素：节前步入震荡格局 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 1. 2025 年 9 月 24 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 121.82 万吨，较上周增加 5.29 万吨，环比增加 4.54%。本周期尿素企业库存继续上涨，临近国庆，各地尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单，少数企 业因流向问题造成库存上涨，部分企业积极发货去库存，虽然企业库存涨跌不一，但整体库 存仍处于上涨趋势。其中企业库存增加的省份：甘肃、河北、河南、湖北、吉林、江西、内 蒙古、四川、新疆、重庆。企业库存减少的省份：安徽、海南、黑龙江、江苏、青海、山东、 山西、陕西。（隆众资讯） 2. 短期国庆节前尿素期货逐步进入震荡格局。短期而言，尿素生产企业节前持续降价收单，在 期货研究 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,673 | 1,658 | 1 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,672 | 1,658 ...

2025 年 09 月 25 日 工业硅：盘面表现较抗跌 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 多晶硅：上游突发检修，关注市场情绪 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 9,020 353,767 | 95 -64,913 | 55 77,777 | 345 -121,844 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 270,931 | -2,765 | -14,742 | -18,194 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,380 | 1,120 | -2,110 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 242,016 | -54,092 | 55,778 | - | | | | PS2511持 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - Palm oil has limited short - term rebound height [3] - Soybean oil has a weak and volatile trend in the US, and the upside space is difficult to open [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Data - Palm oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 9,126 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.80% increase and 9,190 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.70% increase. Trading volume was 591,824 lots, a decrease of 429,324 lots, and positions were 376,778 lots, a decrease of 11,149 lots [2] - Soybean oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 8,100 yuan/ton (day session) with a 0.17% increase and 8,162 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.77% increase. Trading volume was 310,807 lots, a decrease of 507,057 lots, and positions were 549,420 lots, an increase of 3,511 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 9,921 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.75% decrease and 9,958 yuan/ton (night session) with a 0.37% increase. Trading volume was 345,408 lots, a decrease of 73,952 lots, and positions were 306,205 lots, a decrease of 21,837 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 4,380 ringgit/ton (day session) with a 0.90% increase and 4,425 ringgit/ton (night session) with a 1.05% increase [2] - CBOT soybean oil futures: The previous trading day's closing price was 49.77 cents/pound with a - 0.22% decrease [2] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The previous trading day's price was 9,020 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The previous trading day's price was 8,440 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The previous trading day's price was 9,900 yuan/ton, with a price decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: The previous trading day's price was 1,085 dollars/ton, with a price decrease of 20 dollars/ton [2] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis: - 106 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis: 340 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis: - 21 yuan/ton [2] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: 795 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 942 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: - 1,026 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with - 968 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: 182 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 198 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 248 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 238 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 484 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 529 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2] Macro and Industry News - GAPKI: Due to increased production and decreased exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 2.57 million tons. In July, Indonesia's crude palm oil production reached 5.11 million tons, a 6% month - on - month increase, and exports decreased by 1.92% month - on - month to 3.54 million tons. Domestic demand for biodiesel and food also declined slightly [3][4] - An Indonesian industry official expects that Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU will increase in 2026 due to the signing of a bilateral trade agreement and the EU's second postponement of its anti - deforestation law. Exports to the EU are expected to increase from an estimated 3.3 million tons this year to about 4 million tons in 2026, and exports to India are expected to increase from 4.8 million tons last year to 5 million tons in 2025 [4] - USDA: A private exporter reported selling 101,400 tons of soybean meal to Guatemala for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [3][5] - USDA export sales report forecast: As of the week ending September 18, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 60 - 160 million tons, soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 15 - 45 million tons, and soybean oil export sales are expected to decrease by 1 million tons to increase by 3 million tons [5] - Hedge Point: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 178 million tons, and exports are expected to be 112 million tons [5] - Anec: Brazil's September soybean export volume forecast was lowered from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons, and soybean meal export volume forecast was lowered from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons [5] - Chinese buyers have purchased about 1.3 million tons of Argentine soybeans after Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and grain by - products [5] - As of the week ending September 17, Argentine farmers sold 676,400 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 32.5735 million tons, and 108,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 1.1472 million tons [6] - An Indian industry official said that India's 2025 soybean production may decrease from 11 million tons last year to 9.9 million tons due to excessive rainfall damaging crops in major grain - producing states [6] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]

【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解，50 碱的支撑会导致现货短期 进一步下跌空间或有限。 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影 响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货 源流转，但低利润的格局也可能使得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。在囤货未开启前，市场也难以判断囤货 带来的缺口，因此盘面仍在交易弱现实。 整体看，当前烧碱盘面前期交易山东 32 碱现货压力。氧化铝未开始投产前的备货，出口方面相比前期 略有改善，山东-华南区域套利也支撑 50 碱市场，多空预期交织短期无法证伪，因此市场或呈现宽幅震荡。 期货研究 烧碱：弱现实压制，但预期不悲观 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 ...

2025 年 9 月 25 日 碳酸锂：节前补库步入尾声，震荡走势延续 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 72,880 | -780 | -760 | 2,160 | -6,500 | 12,380 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 345,221 | -152,636 | 1,358 | -406,259 | -281,695 | 291,093 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 260,654 | 4,747 | -3 ...