Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that asphalt prices are rising slowly following the strong performance of crude oil. It also analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and recent industry news of asphalt [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2508 and BU2509 increased, with daily increases of 0.77% and 0.86% respectively. The trading volume of BU2508 increased by 1,089 lots, while that of BU2509 decreased by 17,315 lots. The positions of both decreased [1]. - **Spot Market**: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta increased and remained unchanged respectively. The refinery operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 31.95%, and the refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.79% to 25.10% [1]. - **Spread**: The basis (Shandong - 08) decreased by 18 yuan/ton, the 08 - 09 inter - period spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton, the Shandong - South China spread increased by 10, and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook, with the intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. 3.3 Market News - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a 4.3% increase from the previous period, mainly due to stable production in some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical [15]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a 5.9% decrease from the previous week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Xinjiang Meihuit and some Shandong refineries [15]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Shipments in the Northeast weakened, while those in the East China increased significantly [15].

2025 年 7 月 31 日 燃料油：上涨延续，短期仍然强势 低硫燃料油：盘面偏强震荡，外盘现货高低硫 价差继续上行 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 2,956 | 1. 34% | | 2,944 | 1.06% | | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.967 | 1.06% | | 2.950 | 1.13% | | | | LU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,692 | 1.68% | | 3.675 | 1.66% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3.710 | 1.66% | | 3.690 | 1.93% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU25 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The spot price of live pigs has dropped rapidly due to limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season of consumption, and the market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,930 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Sichuan is 13,500 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and in Guangdong is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,075 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 75 yuan/ton), 14,105 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 14,390 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 33,288 lots (an increase of 1463 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 53,049 lots (a decrease of 1758 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of the 2511 contract is 12,422 lots (a decrease of 1590 lots), with an open interest of 49,996 lots (an increase of 1377 lots); the trading volume of the 2601 contract is 14,003 lots (a decrease of 30 lots), with an open interest of 41,852 lots (a decrease of 951 lots) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is - 145 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton) [1]. Market Logic - Group companies are actively reducing the weight of pigs recently. Due to the off - season of consumption and limited downstream digestion capacity, the spot price has dropped rapidly, indicating that the previous price increase relied more on inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, resulting in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. A value of 0 indicates a neutral view [2].

尿素：压力缓步增加 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,742 | 1,744 | - 2 -4133 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,749 | 1,739 | 1 0 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 147,498 | 151,631 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 147,157 | 152,980 | -5823 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 515,895 | 527,502 | -11607 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 2 8 | 1 6 | 1 2 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -82 | -94 | 1 2 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | 8 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2) Core Views - Palm oil has short - term support due to positive crude oil and macro sentiment; soybean oil is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to China - US trade progress [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,982 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and (night session) 8,930 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase, and (night session) 8,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,621 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and (night session) 9,579 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% decrease. Other futures prices and their changes are also presented [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 111,443 to 500,291 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,345 to 403,926 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 140,618 to 279,490 lots, and open interest decreased by 5,073 to 506,250 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 4,753 to 280,029 lots, and open interest increased by 18,819 to 215,474 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,610 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 180 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 639 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 742 yuan/ton, and other spreads are also provided [1] b) Macro and Industry News - On July 30, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff to 50% [2] - Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, up from 173.5 million tons in the previous year [4] - Heavy rains in western, northern, and central Ukraine have slowed down the harvest progress, leading to a decline in exports and a possible drop in rapeseed production. As of July 25, Ukrainian farmers had harvested about 1 million tons of rapeseed (compared to 3.3 million tons last year) and about 7 million tons of wheat (compared to 17 million tons last year) [4] c) Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with different levels of strength defined [5]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 PVC：短期偏弱震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 5159 | 5060 | -99 | -137 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 市场现货震荡调整，受政策预期影响盘面开盘拉升，然午后预期未有利好盘中转跌，PVC 供 需基本面维持双弱，新增产能投产供应维持高位，内外贸需求淡季，行业库存继续累库，现货价格承压，华 东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 5050-5150 元/吨，乙烯法在 5000-5200 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造，目前反 内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。但短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动，关注焦煤等商品走势。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此 ...

商 品 研 究 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 2025 年 07 月 31 日 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,775 | 11,835 | -60 -4222 | | | | | | 100,392 | 104,614 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 39,690 | 41,136 | -1446 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 594,254 | 620,306 | -26052 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 175 | 15 | 160 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | | -50 | -30 | -20 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,650 | 11,700 | -50 ...

张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 工业硅：情绪转弱 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 9,285 | -65 | -240 | 1,225 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 605,161 | | -49,683 -1,076,836 -772,169 | | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 242,677 | -34,057 | -92,099 | -113,074 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 54,705 | 3,900 | 4,625 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 565,243 | 19,206 | -680,998 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | 16 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30 made marginal adjustments to macro - economic policies. Policy is more neutral, emphasizing the implementation of previous supportive measures and long - term layout, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, and industrial upgrading [6]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on July 30, but internal differences were prominent. Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to rise sharply, and the stock market and gold prices to fluctuate [9]. - Due to weak fundamentals and high downstream inventory, pulp is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and reverse arbitrage operations can be considered [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)** - Gold: FOMC meeting released hawkish expectations, with a trend intensity of - 1. Gold prices such as Comex Gold 2510 and London Gold showed corresponding fluctuations [9][16][21]. - Silver: Prices fell from high levels, with a trend intensity of - 1. Comex Silver 2510 dropped by 3.15% [16][21]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The U.S. copper import tariff was implemented, causing prices to be under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the price of New York copper tumbled 20% [23][25]. - **Zinc**: Prices fluctuated narrowly, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. Q2 GDP growth was better than expected, and Trump threatened to impose tariffs on India [26][28]. - **Lead**: Inventory increased, and prices were under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of LME lead increased by 6025 tons [29][30]. - **Tin**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of SMM 1 tin ingots rose by 3500 yuan/ton [32][36]. - **Aluminum and Related Products** - Aluminum: Prices fluctuated slightly, with a trend intensity of 0. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 51.40 million tons [38][39]. - Alumina: Prices weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of the Shanghai - bonded area premium remained unchanged [38][39]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of三地 increased by 291 tons [38][39]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determined the direction, and fundamentals limited the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the U.S. [40][44]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominated the marginal trend, and the real - world situation needed to be improved, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of 304/2B - SS decreased by 50 [40][44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices fluctuated widely, and the impact at the mine end had not materialized, with a trend intensity of - 1. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 211 yuan/ton [45][47]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. partially cancelled tariffs on certain small solar equipment imported from China [48][50]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged [48][50]. - **Other Chemicals** - **Pulp**: It was expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high attention index of ★★★★. The profit of the paper and paper products industry from January to June 2025 decreased by 21.4% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Coal - related Products (Coke, Coking Coal, and Steam Coal)** - Coke: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Coking Coal: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner. - **Petrochemical Products (PTA, MEG, etc.)** - PTA: Cost provided support, and month - spread positive arbitrage was recommended. - MEG: The unilateral trend remained weak, and month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, prices fluctuated strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) decreased by 8 yuan/ton [51]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)** - Rebar: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of rebar increased by 2.9 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon)** - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan/ton [59][62]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block increased by 0.5 yuan/ton degree [59][62].

2025年07月31日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：原油及宏观情绪偏多，短期存在支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕反弹受限 | 4 | | 豆一：偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：情绪降温，郑棉期货回调 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 11 | | 生猪：关注月初现货预期能否兑现 | 12 | | 花生：旧作下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：原油及宏观情绪偏多，短期存在支撑 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.13% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.58% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油 ...