2025 年 09 月 26 日 短纤：短期反弹，节前减仓 瓶片：短期反弹，节前减仓 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 短纤：直纺涤短期货跟随原料大幅上涨，现货方面工厂报价多维稳，成交部分优惠缩小。贸易商及期现 商优惠缩小，成交多有放量。下游节前备货积极。半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心在 6350~6550 区间。市场高低价 差缩小，工厂方面销售进一步好转，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 78%，部分工厂产销：150%、80%、70%、 100%、30%、60%、200%、50%、100%，100%。 瓶片：上游聚酯原料期货继续上涨，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多上调 30-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交 气氛尚可。9-11 月订单多成交在 5770-5900 元/吨出厂不等，少量略低 5730 元/吨出厂附近，略高 5910-5950 元/吨出厂不等，品牌不同价格略有差异。华南一年产 110 万吨聚酯瓶片大厂因台风短停装置据悉在逐步重 启中，预计周 ...

多晶硅：市场情绪降温 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 商 品 研 2025 年 09 月 26 日 工业硅：盘面表现较抗跌 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 9,055 | 35 | 150 | 540 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 318,137 | -35,630 | -157,561 | -132,153 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 259,965 | -10,966 | -25,087 | -21,874 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,365 | -15 | -1,840 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 184,786 | -57,230 | -13,972 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 105,474 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The asphalt market shows signs of slow shipment and pressured spot prices. The production has increased, while the inventory situation varies by region, with some areas experiencing inventory accumulation and others seeing inventory reduction [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.42%, and the overnight closing price remained unchanged. The trading volume was 175,377 lots with an increase of 22,435 lots, and the open interest was 197,649 lots with a decrease of 19,248 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.44%, and the overnight closing price was 3,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 53,804 lots with an increase of 2,649 lots, and the open interest was 88,522 lots with a decrease of 1,800 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 55,980 lots with no change [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan compared to the previous day. The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 55 yuan/ton with no change. The Shandong - South China spread was 0 with no change, and the East China - South China spread was 60 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,560 yuan/ton with no change. The refinery operating rate was 49.88%, an increase of 2.66% compared to the previous data. The refinery inventory rate was 27.11%, an increase of 0.37% [1]. Trend Strength - The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. Market Information - **Production**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total domestic asphalt production was 699,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons (1.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons (43.8%). The cumulative production from January to September was 2.3536 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 271.1 million tons (13.0%) [15]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 704,000 tons, a 0.9% increase from September 22. The inventory in South China increased significantly due to typhoon - affected shipments and stagnant downstream demand. The total inventory of 104 social warehouses was 1.541 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from September 22. The social inventory in East China decreased significantly due to low inbound volume, pre - holiday stocking demand, and low prices [15].

Group 1: Report Title and Overview - The report is titled "Fuel Oil: High-level Volatility, Short-term Adjustment; Low-sulfur Fuel Oil: Sharp Upturn, Strong Rebound in the Spread between High and Low-sulfur Spot Prices in the External Market" and was published on September 26, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core View - Fuel oil is in high-level volatility and has entered a short-term adjustment, while low-sulfur fuel oil has seen a sharp upward movement and a strong rebound in the spread between high and low-sulfur spot prices in the external market [1] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - FU2510 closed at 2,969 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 2,933 yuan/ton, up 1.88% [1] - FU2511 closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, up 1.88% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 2,948 yuan/ton, up 2.08% [1] - LU2510 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 3,366 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - LU2511 closed at 3,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a settlement price of 3,435 yuan/ton, up 1.12% [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of FU2510 was 216, a decrease of 727 from the previous day, and the open interest was 4,306, a decrease of 127 [1] - The trading volume of FU2511 was 14,583, a decrease of 10,089 from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,802, a decrease of 1,476 [1] - The trading volume of LU2510 was 0, a decrease of 35 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,295, an increase [1] - The trading volume of LU2511 was 71,885, a decrease of 7,787 from the previous day, and the open interest was 44,735, a decrease of 5,993 [1] Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the market were 80,510, unchanged from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts of low-sulfur fuel oil were 10,020, unchanged [1] Spot Prices - In Singapore FOB, high-sulfur (3.5%S) was 407.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day, and low-sulfur (0.5%S) was 474.0 US dollars/ton, up 1.70% [1] - In Singapore Bunker, high-sulfur was 418.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and low-sulfur was 486.0 US dollars/ton, up 1.25% [1] Price Spreads - The spread between FU10 and FU11 was -1 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was -15 yuan/ton, a difference of -14 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between LU10 and LU11 was -84 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was -69 yuan/ton, a difference of 15 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between LU10 and FU10 was 397 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 433 yuan/ton, a difference of 36 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low-sulfur fuel oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [1]

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report maintains a shorting strategy for the hog industry, with a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Core View - The spot market for hogs is not performing well during the peak season, and the report suggests maintaining a shorting strategy [1] Key Points from the Report Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,580 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Sichuan's is 12,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and Guangdong's is 13,110 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 12,685 yuan/ton, 13,310 yuan/ton, and 12,745 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 45 yuan, 35 yuan, and 10 yuan [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For contract 2511, trading volume is 30,918 lots, down 8,132 lots, and open interest is 89,538 lots, down 1,281 lots; for 2601, trading volume is 13,157 lots, down 6,220 lots, and open interest is 66,502 lots, down 209 lots; for 2603, trading volume is 5,442 lots, down 2,852 lots, and open interest is 48,476 lots, up 674 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis for contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 105 yuan/ton, - 730 yuan/ton, and - 165 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 55 yuan, 65 yuan, and 90 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread is - 625 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 1 - 3 spread is 565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 26 日 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 MEG：1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6674 | 4678 | 4246 | 6372 | 490.6 | | 涨跌 | 72 | 52 | 12 | 76 | 8.3 | | 涨跌幅 | 1.09% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 1.21% | 1.72% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -42 | -40 | -64 | -44 | -1.1 | | 前日收盘价 | -22 | -36 | -64 | -50 | -0.5 | | 涨跌 | -20 | -4 | 0 | 6 | -0.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Short-term rebound height is limited [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upward space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2] - Soybean meal: Argentina resumes export tariffs, with a rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Rebound and oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the new grain listing [2] - Sugar: Range oscillation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the price of seed cotton [2] - Eggs: Wait for the verification of the Double Festivals [2] - Live pigs: The spot market fails to boom in the peak season, maintain the shorting idea [2] - Peanuts: Oscillatory operation [2] Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to have decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month [5] - **Export Data**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS) and 11.3% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [6][10] - **Market Performance**: The palm oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 9,222 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase and a night - session closing price of 9,258 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [7] Soybean Oil - **USDA Forecast**: Analysts' average forecast for US soybean inventory on September 1, 2025, is 3.23 billion bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [10] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 72.45 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: The soybean oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 8,192 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase and a night - session closing price of 8,198 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Market News**: Argentina resumed export tariffs, causing CBOT soybeans to rise slightly, but US soybean bumper harvest and weak export sales restricted the upward trend [15][17] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 22.62 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 2967 yuan/ton with a 1.54% increase and a night - session closing price of 2956 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] Corn - **Market Price**: The northern corn collection port price is 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton [19] - **Market Performance**: The C2511 contract had a day - session closing price of 2,165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase and a night - session closing price of 2,171 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase [18] Sugar - **Production Data**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [23] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season [25] - **Market Performance**: The futures main contract price was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [23] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the seed cotton purchase price is temporarily stable [29] - **US Market**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the weekly export sales data was poor [30] - **Market Performance**: The CF2601 contract had a day - session closing price of 13,530 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease and a night - session closing price of 13490 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [28] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract had a closing price of 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.78% increase [34] Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [37] - **Trend**: Maintain the shorting idea due to the weak peak - season spot market [2][38] Peanuts - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions are stable, and the listing time of wheat - stubble peanuts is postponed [41] - **Market Performance**: The PK510 contract had a closing price of 7,770 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [40]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：产量增势不减，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：盘面表现较抗跌 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪降温 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年09月26日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 26 日 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,450 | 720 | -340 | 600 | 1,140 | 4,000 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will undergo a sideways adjustment. The continuous rise of the US dollar restricts the upward movement of copper prices. Zinc has support at lower levels, and the continuous decline in lead inventories supports its price. Tin will trade within a range, aluminum will experience high - level fluctuations, alumina will operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at low levels due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and costs [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals** - Gold: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 851.74 with a daily decline of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 858.12 with a night - session increase of 0.25%. Comex Gold 2510 rose 0.32% to 3780.50. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 21,639, and the position decreased by 18,781. The position of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 996.85. The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 5,091 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Gold (in the previous day) increased by 62,032 troy ounces [5]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 10370 with a daily increase of 0.16%, and the night - session closing price was 10575.00 with a night - session increase of 1.72%. Comex Silver 2510 rose 3.07% to 45.470. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 87,243, and the position decreased by 23,112. The position of SLV Silver ETF (in the day before yesterday) decreased by 79 to 15,390.07. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 4944 kilograms, and the inventory of Comex Silver (in the previous day) increased by 406,878 troy ounces [5]. - **Trend Intensity** - Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 1 [8]. 2. Copper - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 82,710 with a daily increase of 3.44%, and the night - session closing price was 82380 with a night - session decline of 0.40%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price decreased by 0.43% to 10,276. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 283,166, and the position increased by 66,079. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 243 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 350 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. China's refined copper imports in August were 307,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Freeport announced force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower (for copper) and about 6% lower (for gold) than the July 2025 estimate [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity** - Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. 3. Zinc - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045 with a daily increase of 0.85%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.14% to 2922.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 48,547, and the position decreased by 10,581. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 774 tons, and the inventory of LME Zinc decreased by 600 tons [13]. - **News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6% [14]. - **Trend Intensity** - Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 4. Lead - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17090 with a daily increase of 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.18% to 2002.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2927, and the position increased by 1776. The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2576 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 175 tons [16]. - **News** - The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The strong data increased the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut path, and the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in October cooled down [16]. - **Trend Intensity** - Lead trend intensity is 0 [16]. 5. Tin - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 271,650 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price was 272,950 with a night - session increase of 0.51%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.13% to 34,315. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 9,649, and the position decreased by 2,419. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 76 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 120 tons [19]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched, offering three platforms: cross - border digital payment, blockchain services, and digital assets. The US GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high, and the PCE price index was 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 218,000, the lowest since July [19]. - **Trend Intensity** - Tin trend intensity is 0 [22]. 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals** - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20765, the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2664. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 146,073, and the position was 220,640. The LME注销仓单占比 was 20.95%. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4487.40, and the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 614,000 tons [23]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2942. The trading volume was 329,000, and the position was 303,116. The domestic average price of alumina was 3026 [23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20385, the trading volume was 3950, and the position was 11,767 [23]. - **Comprehensive News** - Fed Governor Milan advocated cutting interest rates by 50 basis points each time to quickly reach the neutral interest rate [25]. - **Trend Intensity** - Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [25]. 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,450. The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,600, and the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 955. The red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 57 [26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,895. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 13,200 [26]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron production by about 1900 metal tons per month [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity** - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [32].