2025 年 09 月 25 日 铜：铜矿不可抗力扰动，价格大涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,960 | 0.05% | 82610 | 3.31% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,320 | 3.27% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 51,727 | -11,472 | 172,444 | -850 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 47,088 | 35,670 | 290,000 | 405 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 27,419 | -308 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 144,775 | -200 | 8.13% | - ...

2025 年 09 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 豆粕：阿根廷出口政策可能变化，连粕反弹 豆一：市场情绪好转，盘面反弹 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3907 | +31 （+0.80%） | +34（+0.87%） 3924 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2930 | -24（-0.81%） | 2956 +34（+1.16%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1008.5 | -4.0（-0.40%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 275.9 | （-0.40%） -1.1 | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 2950～2980； | 现货基差M2601+40； ...

2025 年 9 月 25 日 股指期货将震荡整理 铜期货将震荡偏强 玻璃、原油、燃料 油、PTA、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4545 和 4580 点，支撑位 4495 和 4455 点；IH2512 阻力位 2946 和 2955 点，支撑位 2923 和 2912 点；IC2512 阻力位 7200 和 7300 点，支撑位 7100 和 7035 点；IM2512 阻力位 7 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View - The report is titled "Eggs: Waiting for the Double Festival Confirmation", but no specific core view is elaborated in the provided content [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Egg 2510 is 2,957 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.17%, a trading volume decrease of 12,594, and an open - interest decrease of 6,401. The closing price of Egg 2601 is 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a trading volume decrease of 7,297, and an open - interest increase of 2,124 [2]. - **Spread Data**: The Egg 10 - 12 spread is - 222 (previous day: - 242), and the Egg 10 - 1 spread is - 397 (previous day: - 413) [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.50 yuan/jin, 3.38 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin, and 3.96 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,300 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,317 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 2,900 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,920 yuan/ton), and the pig price in Henan is 12.68 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged [2]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Low - level short - chasing in PP should be cautious, and the medium - term may be a volatile market. Short - term demand has improved month - on - month, but the weak cost side has led to recent market fluctuations. The market before the National Day is generally rational, and low - level position reduction may be considered, so short - chasing needs caution [1][2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6877, with a daily increase of 0.39%. The trading volume was 178,124, and the open interest decreased by 15,873 [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of the 01 contract was - 177 (previous day: - 142), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 43 (previous day: - 49) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In the North China region, the spot price was 6670 - 6780 yuan/ton; in the East China region, it was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton; in the South China region, it was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market showed partial weakness. The rebound of PP futures slightly boosted the trading atmosphere in the spot market. Some production enterprises such as Donghua Energy, Zhongmei, and Baofeng raised their factory prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yueneng Chemical lowered them by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. Traders mainly sold at stable prices considering the pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. The intraday basis weakened, and hedgers bought moderately. Downstream buyers replenished at low prices, and most holders reported improved transactions compared with the previous day [2] Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand has improved month - on - month, but the cost side is still weak, leading to recent market fluctuations. On the supply side, recent maintenance has gradually increased, and low - profit factors have led to low price elasticity at low levels. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing has slightly improved, but procurement is in a "buy on rising, not on falling" state [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval. - 2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report analyzes the futures trends of various commodities in the black series on September 25, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations, and all have a neutral trend intensity of 0 [2][4][6][7][11][15][17]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of contract 12601 was 803.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.12%. The trading volume decreased by 7,511 hands. Spot prices remained unchanged. The basis for 12601 against Super Special decreased by 1 yuan to 133.9 yuan, and the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 1 yuan to 44.3 yuan [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][6][7]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%, and the trading volume increased by 812 hands. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, and the trading volume increased by 668 hands. Spot prices in most regions changed slightly [7]. - **News**: In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 941 million tons, up 2.3% month - on - month. In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][11]. - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon contract 2511, the closing price was 5,742 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. For silicomanganese contract 2511, the closing price was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton, while the price of silicomanganese remained unchanged [11]. - **News**: On September 24, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported, and some companies announced their procurement prices [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,224.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.6%. For coke contract J2601, the closing price was 1,730 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.7%. Spot prices of some coking coal varieties increased, while others remained unchanged [15]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have repeated oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of contract 2511 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.2%. The trading volume decreased by 35.9%. The closing price of contract 2601 was 819 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [18]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20].

2025 年 09 月 25 日 锌：小幅反弹 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 21860 | 0.07% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2889.5 | -0.36% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 109733 | -15598 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 8435 | -2370 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 141867 | 1495 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 215283 | -794 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -60 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 40 | -15 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | -75 | -5 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/吨） | | | | 天津 0# 锌升贴水 ...

2025 年 09 月 25 日 短纤：短期反弹，加工费压缩 瓶片：短期反弹，加工费压缩 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2510 | 6302 | 6254 | 48 | PF10-11 | 6 | ব | 2 | | PF | 短纤2511 | 6296 | 6250 | 46 | PF11-12 | 34 | 10 | 24 | | | 短纤2512 | 6262 | 6240 | 22 | PF某差 | 119 | 145 | -26 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 200214 | 215528 | -15314 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 415 | 6. 395 | 20 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 1732 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the pig market is in a high-premium situation. Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price**: The Henan spot price is 12,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 12,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton. The prices of the futures contracts "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 12,730 yuan/ton, 13,345 yuan/ton, and 12,755 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 39,050 lots, 19,377 lots, and 8,294 lots respectively, with changes of - 5,610 lots, - 3,173 lots, and + 475 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 90,819 lots, 66,711 lots, and 47,802 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,695 lots, - 144 lots, and + 443 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread**: The basis of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are - 50 yuan/ton, - 665 yuan/ton, and - 75 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between "pig11 - 1" is - 615 yuan/ton, and the spread between "pig1 - 3" is 590 yuan/ton [1]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]. [Market Logic] Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On September 24, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose, with IF up 1.66%, IH up 1.03%, IC up 3.51%, and IM up 3.06% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 24,218 lots, IH by 9,047 lots, IC by 4,626 lots, and IM by 35,404 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 13,140 lots, IH by 3,523 lots, IC by 5,890 lots, and IM by 27,949 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - The three major US stock indexes fell for two consecutive days due to the drag of technology stocks, while Chinese concept stocks rebounded strongly. The "9.24" new policy's one - year anniversary saw the market fluctuate and rebound throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index reaching new stage highs [7] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 300 index closed at 4,566.07, up 1.02%. Among its futures contracts, IF2510 closed at 4,556.2, up 1.66% with a basis of - 9.87, and its trading volume was 580.2 billion and the position decreased by 5,638 lots [1] - **SSE 50 and Its Futures Contracts**: The SSE 50 index closed at 2,939.51, up 0.68%. IH2510 closed at 2,941.8, up 1.03% with a basis of 2.29, and its trading volume was 166.2 billion and the position decreased by 3,145 lots [1] - **CSI 500 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 500 index closed at 7,323.71, up 1.99%. IC2510 closed at 7,280.6, up 3.51% with a basis of - 43.11, and its trading volume was 683.4 billion and the position decreased by 6,488 lots [1] - **CSI 1000 and Its Futures Contracts**: The CSI 1000 index closed at 7,534.22, up 1.70%. IM2510 closed at 7,472, up 3.06% with a basis of - 62.22, and its trading volume was 1,018.4 billion and the position decreased by 11,740 lots [1] 2. Positions of the Top 20 Members in Stock Index Futures - **IF Contracts**: For IF2510, the long - position change was - 3,846, and the short - position change was - 4,842. For IF2512, the long - position change was - 7,342, and the short - position change was - 5,755 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2510, the long - position change was - 2,441, and the short - position change was - 2,048. For IH2512, the long - position change was - 297, and the short - position change was 806 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2510, the long - position change was - 5,936, and the short - position change was - 5,025. For IC2512, the long - position change was - 2,899, and the short - position change was - 1,732 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2510, the long - position change was - 9,336, and the short - position change was - 9,642. For IM2512, the long - position change was - 11,799, and the short - position change was - 11,166 [5] 3. Important Drivers - Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Both sides expressed their willingness to strengthen cooperation and resolve differences through dialogue [6] - On September 23, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a round - table meeting with some Chinese - funded enterprises in the United States, and the enterprises put forward specific demands and suggestions [6]