Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, while silver is expected to break through and rise. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation. Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories. Tin and aluminum will fluctuate within a range. Alumina is driven by short - term sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trend**: The price of gold is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44, down 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 774.32, up 0.49% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 36,087 compared to the previous day, and the position increased by 2,732. The SPDR Gold ETF's position remained unchanged at 956.23 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The US court started oral arguments on Thursday, and the "reciprocal tariffs" face the "risk of cancellation" [5][9]. Silver - **Price and Trend**: Silver is expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195, down 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 9234.00, up 0.46% [2][5]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 611,380 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 5,678. The SLV Silver ETF's position increased by 14 to 15,173.92 [5]. Copper - **Price and Trend**: Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,840, down 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 79090, up 0.32% [2][10]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 10,226 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,348. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 251 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US will continue to extend the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. India is delaying new trade concessions. The US is considering a 50% tariff on copper imports starting next week [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trend**: Zinc will have a narrow - range fluctuation, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22655, up 0.04%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2805.5, down 0.83% [2][13]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 65,890 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,845. The LME Zinc inventory decreased by 3,350 [13]. - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [14]. Lead - **Price and Trend**: Lead prices are under pressure due to the increase in overseas inventories, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16900, down 0.09%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2017.5, down 0.15% [2][17]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 24,548 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 6,012. The LME Lead inventory increased by 6,700 [17]. - **News**: Sino - US will continue to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The US job vacancies in June were 7.437 million, less than expected [18]. Tin - **Price and Trend**: Tin will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,660, down 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 268,050, up 0.26% [2][21]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 26,514 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,387. The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 160 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, Sino - US tariff - related issues and other macro - events are mentioned [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trend**: Aluminum and alumina will fluctuate within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20605, down 10. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3307, up 64 [2][26]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 68,337 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 12,465. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged at 51.40 million tons [26]. - **News**: Trump set a new deadline for Russia to reach a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the price of crude oil rose by more than 4% during the session. Trump and Bessent stated that the US will issue long - term bonds after the interest rate drops [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trend**: Nickel's direction is determined by macro - expectations, and its elasticity is limited by fundamentals. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800, up 180. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,920, up 80 [2][30]. - **Market Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 177,969 compared to the previous day, and the position decreased by 2,420. The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract decreased by 211,230 compared to the previous day [30]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [30][31].

2025年07月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 3 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锌：窄幅震荡 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存增加，价格承压 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：短期情绪面驱动 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：宏观预期定方向，基本面限制弹性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，现实面仍有待修复 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：宽幅震荡，关注宏观情绪切换 | 16 | | 工业硅：盘面偏强运行 | 18 | | 多晶硅：消息发酵，盘面偏强 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，偏强震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 动力煤：日耗 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Oscillating and Repeating" [1] 2. Core View - The report presents the latest fundamental data of logs, including price, trading volume, and open interest of different contracts, as well as the prices of various log products in the spot market. It also mentions a piece of macro - industry news about the Sino - US economic and trade talks [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Data of Logs - **Futures Contracts**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 830 on July 29, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0.9%. Its trading volume decreased by 51.1% daily and 41% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 4.3% daily and 8% weekly. Similar data is provided for the 2511 and 2601 contracts [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts, such as 2509 - 2511, 2509 - 2601, and 2511 - 2601, are presented. For example, the 2509 - 2511 spread was - 3 on July 29, 2025 [2] - **Spot Market**: The prices of various log products in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are listed, including different lengths and specifications of radiata pine, spruce, K - wood, pulp, and wood squares. Most of the prices remained stable with a daily change of 0.0%, but there were some weekly changes, such as a 4.0% weekly increase in the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - strong trend [4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 豆粕：美豆微跌、菜粕偏强，连粕或震荡 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4144 -39 | （-0.93%） 4149 +13（+0.31%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2983 | -18（-0.60%） 2993 +19 （+0.64%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1008.25 | -3.25（-0.32%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 276.3 -3.1 | n a （-1.11%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 2860～2900， 较昨-20至持平； M2509+0/+30/+50/+60， | 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平； ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 30 日 期货研究 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：短期情绪面驱动 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20605 | -10 | -295 | 140 | 1280 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20620 | ー | l | - | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2606 | -25 | -46 | વર | 249 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 119985 | -68337 | -33433 | 26772 | -133621 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 272707 | -12465 | -58190 | 108696 | 128104 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 30, 2025. It is expected that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, glass, soda ash, alumina, and crude oil futures will oscillate with an upward tendency. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate weakly [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2][19]. - Ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 and thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 are likely to oscillate weakly on July 30, 2025, and will test support levels [2][39]. - Gold (AU2510), silver (AG2510), copper (CU2509), and other commodity futures are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, and will attack resistance levels [2][3]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - During the Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 28 - 29, the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the US's 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [7]. - The IMF significantly raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8% and for 2026 to 4.2%. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 was raised to 3% [10]. - US economic data: In June, the US commodity trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% month - on - month; in May, the S&P/CS20 major city house price index and FHFA house price index had different changes; in June, JOLTS job openings were 743.7 million, less than expected [11]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Most domestic commodity futures rose in night trading. Black series such as coking coal and coke, and non - metallic building materials such as glass and PVC increased [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the intraday flat - today trading fees for glass and soda ash futures contracts from the night trading session on July 30 [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock index futures**: On July 29, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 had different trends, with some continuing to rebound slightly and some facing slight downward pressure [14][15][16]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On July 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2344 billion yuan [37]. - **Other commodity futures**: Each commodity futures contract had different trends on July 29, 2025, and the report provided expected trends and resistance/support levels for July 30, 2025 [43][51][54] etc.

Report Title - Manganese Silicon: Sector sentiment resonance, strong sideways movement [1] Core View - The manganese silicon market shows a pattern of strong sideways movement due to sector sentiment resonance [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Silicon iron 2509 closed at 6110, up 270, with a trading volume of 726,721 and an open interest of 197,081 - Silicon iron 2510 closed at 6092, up 260, with a trading volume of 62,472 and an open interest of 40,316 - Manganese silicon 2509 closed at 6212, up 184, with a trading volume of 1,009,206 and an open interest of 347,380 - Manganese silicon 2510 closed at 6218, up 186, with a trading volume of 43,829 and an open interest of 23,948 [1] Spot Data - The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5550 yuan/ton, up 50 - The price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5800 yuan/ton, up 100 - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 - The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [1] Price Difference Data - The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon iron was - 560 yuan/ton, down 220 - The spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese silicon was - 412 yuan/ton, down 84 - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2509 - 2601 was - 106 yuan/ton, up 2 - The near - far month price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - 2601 was - 74 yuan/ton, unchanged - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 102 yuan/ton, down 86 - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 70 yuan/ton, down 84 [1] Macro and Industry News Silicon Iron Price News - On July 29, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5600 (+100), in Ningxia 5600 - 5700 (+100), in Qinghai 5500 - 5600 (+100), in Gansu 5500 - 5600 (+100), and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 (+150) - The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950, in Ningxia 5800 - 5900, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850, in Gansu 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 - The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040, and 75 was 1090 - 1110 (US dollars/ton, tax - included) [2] Silicon Manganese Price News - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5850 - 5950 (+150) yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5900 - 6000 (+100) yuan/ton [2] Production and Procurement News - In July, there were 11 silicon iron enterprises in production in Inner Mongolia, with 75 ore - heating furnaces in production. The operating rate in July was 61.48%, up 1.64% from June, and the output was expected to be 14.64 tons, up 0.37 tons from June, with a capacity utilization of 60.2% - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon iron procurement price at 5970 yuan/ton in cash, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 400 tons - A steel mill in Shandong set the silicon manganese standard at 5990 yuan/ton, CIF and accepted, and temporarily procured 1500 tons - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicon manganese standard at 5880 yuan/ton, CIF and cash - included, up 140 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 1500 tons - A group in Fujian set the silicon manganese standard at 6150 yuan/ton in Hubei, up 100, with a procurement volume of 3000 tons; and 6150 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, up 100, with a procurement volume of 1000 tons [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The zinc market shows a narrow - range oscillation pattern [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Zinc Market Data - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,655 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,805.5 dollars/ton, down 0.83% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 127,217 lots, down 65,890 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 9,331 lots, up 1,056 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 117,616 lots, down 6,845 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 189,856 lots, up 1,083 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was - 1.95 dollars/ton, down 0.15 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 15,307 tons, up 1,540 tons; LME zinc inventory was 112,150 tons, down 3,350 tons [1] 3.2 News - China and the US will continue to extend the suspension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The two sides held a candid, in - depth and constructive exchange on economic and trade issues [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is integers within [- 2,2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2][3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Overseas lead inventories are increasing, putting pressure on lead prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead futures was 2,017.5 dollars/ton, down 0.15% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 47,978 lots, a decrease of 24,548 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 5,267 lots, a decrease of 88 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 64,534 lots, a decrease of 6,012 lots; the LME lead open interest was 142,951 lots, an increase of 1,869 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -27.31 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.89 dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -812.59 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.02 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -695.48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.72 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 60,932 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 2. News - China and the US will continue to extend the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days India is delaying new trade concessions and aiming to finalize an agreement by September or October [2] - In June, the number of job openings in the US was 7.437 million, falling short of expectations, and recruitment slowed The US merchandise trade deficit narrowed more than expected, and Wall Street raised its Q2 GDP forecast The US important housing price index fell for three consecutive months, the largest decline since 2022 [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：板块行情共振，偏强震荡 2025 年 7 月 30 日 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,347 | 65 | 1.98 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,503 | 69 | 2.01 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 2,711,612 | 2,175,237 | 239,356 | | | HC2510 | 1,006,596 | 1,612,699 | 131,532 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3430 | 339 ...