2026年02月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 12 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 12 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 12 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 黄金：震荡反弹 白银：高位回落 贵金属基本面数据 | | | ...

pl 研 2026年2月12日 服务研究 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 音全属其本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,130.40 | 0. 82% | 1130. 70 | 0. 44% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,124.47 | 0. 63% | 1127.50 | 0. 31% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 5107. 80 | 1. 19% | 1 | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 5084. 75 | 1. 14% | l | - | | | 沪银2602 | 20944 | 3. 16% | 20965. 00 | 2. 27% | | | 白银T+D | 19899 | 3. 24% | 19760 | 0. 77% | | 价格 | Comex白银2602 | 84. 085 | 4. 35% | 23 | l | | | 伦敦银现货 | 84. 215 | 4. 29 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a reverse spread for the monthly spread is recommended. Investors should pay attention to position management during the long Spring Festival holiday [5]. - PTA has limited downside space, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short PTA when the processing fee is above 450. Pay attention to the support at 5100 yuan/ton. Position management is necessary during the Spring Festival [6]. - MEG's inventory continues to rise, with large supply pressure. A reverse spread operation for the basis and monthly spread is suggested. The basis and monthly spread trends remain weak, and investors should manage positions during the Spring Festival [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX main contract was 7378, up 70 (0.96%) from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 monthly spread was 22, up 14 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA main contract was 5260, up 30 (0.57%) from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 monthly spread was 24, down 4 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG main contract was 3764, up 31 (0.83%) from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 monthly spread was - 110, down 2 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The closing price of the PF main contract was 6654, up 28 (0.42%) from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 monthly spread was - 66, up 8 from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The closing price of the SC main contract was 476.8, up 0.7 (0.15%) from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 monthly spread was 1, up 3.7 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price was 917.33 dollars/ton, up 8.33 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 294.05 dollars/ton, up 5.96 dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price in East China was 5180 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 378.86 yuan/ton, down 49.15 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG spot price was 3663 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Market News - **PX**: On February 11, PX prices rose. The Platts - assessed Asian p - xylene CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea indicators both rose 8.33 dollars/ton. The futures market rise was due to short - covering rather than fundamental changes in the physical market [3][4]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Xinjiang restarted one line and plans to restart another line around this Friday. A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in Lianyungang has stopped production for conversion, with an initial plan of at least 2 - 3 months [4]. - **Polyester**: On February 11, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased individually but remained weak overall, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 4:30 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories was 29% by 3:00 pm [4][5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report has a "Neutral" rating for the short - term, with the view that geopolitical risks are driving the market to be "relatively strong", and suggests short - term observation [1] 2. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving the crude oil market to be relatively strong, and short - term observation is recommended [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [11] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $0.67, or 1.05%, to $64.63 per barrel. ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $0.60, or 0.87%, to $69.40 per barrel. SC2604 crude oil futures rose $3.90, or 0.82%, to $479.80 per barrel [1] 3.2 Crude Oil Spread Analysis - **General Spread Changes**: The spreads of different types of crude oil showed various trends. Some spreads deteriorated due to factors such as negative refining value and price disadvantages, while others improved. For example, the spread of Forties deteriorated significantly with a - $1.82 change compared to January, mainly due to a sharp increase in the crude price disadvantage relative to WTI MEH [2] - **Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of several alternative crude oils improved. Napo's spread improved significantly with a $4.67 change compared to January, mainly due to an extremely deep price discount [4] - **North - West European Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of various alternative crude oils improved, and the arbitrage windows became more favorable. For example, the spread of Saharan Blend widened significantly with a $3.08 change compared to January, driven by refining value and significant price advantages [5] - **Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of some alternative crude oils improved (negative values decreased), but some windows remained deeply closed. For example, the spread of Azeri Light improved significantly with a $2.27 change compared to January due to the narrowing of Urals' price advantage [6][7] - **Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage**: The spreads of different alternative crude oils had different trends. Napo's spread widened significantly with a $5.31 change compared to January, mainly due to a large price discount relative to Dubai [7] 3.3 Key Market News - The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending February 6 was 853 million barrels, higher than the expected 79.3 million barrels and the previous value of - 345.5 million barrels. The EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 107.1 million barrels, compared to the previous value of - 74.3 million barrels [9] - The U.S. Energy Secretary expects a significant increase in Venezuela's oil, gas, and electricity production this year. Morgan Stanley expects Venezuela's oil production to reach 2 million barrels per day in the coming years [10] - The U.S. President Trump mentioned the negotiation with Iran, and Iran's top security official said that Iran is consulting with the U.S. to determine the next round of negotiation time [10]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Aluminum: High-level oscillation [1] - Alumina: Excess pattern remains unchanged [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in both the futures and spot markets, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventories, and corporate profits [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 23,660 yuan, up 145 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 146,496 lots, a decrease of 42,086 lots from T - 1; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,117 US dollars, up 12 US dollars from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,842 yuan, up 7 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 438,077 lots, an increase of 74,829 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,205 yuan, up 85 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 5,554 lots, a decrease of 412 lots from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 875,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 167,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from T - 1; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 485,800 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,646 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The price of Australian imported bauxite (Al: 48 - 50%, Si: 8 - 10%) was 48 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 1; the price of Guinean imported bauxite (Al: 43 - 45%, Si: 2 - 3%) was 61 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 522 yuan, a decrease of 174 yuan from T - 1; the three - place inventory totaled 40,693 tons, a decrease of 195 tons from T - 1 [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,275 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1].

2026 年 2 月 12 日 锡：小幅震荡 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 394,700 | 3.27% | 391,330 | 0.89% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 50,065 | 1.70% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 257,952 | 13,940 | 31,287 | -920 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 498 | 3 8 | 25,153 | -200 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The raw material side disturbances support the copper price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 102,180 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 102,190 with a night - session increase of 0.01%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,239 with a daily increase of 1.06% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 193,391, a decrease of 14,245 from the previous day, and the open interest was 568,047, an increase of 2,458. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 26,491, an increase of 14,242, and the open interest was 326,000, an increase of 893 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 178,897, an increase of 12,958. The LME copper inventory was 192,100, an increase of 3,000, and the注销仓单比 was 11.69%, an increase of 1.39% [1] - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads such as LME copper basis, bonded - area bill premiums, etc., with different changes compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US January non - farm payroll report was overall strong, which dampened the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and traders postponed the expected time of the first interest - rate cut from June to July [1] - **Industry**: Glencore Canada was forced to suspend major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, and the investment in the Canadian copper refinery would be scaled back in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile. Harmony Gold said its newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two - year renovation. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promoted central enterprises to actively expand effective investment in computing power [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] for the intensity value, indicating a certain degree of upward trend [3]

钯：持续震荡 产 业 服 务 研 究 2026 年 02 月 12 日 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 商 品 研 究 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨幅 | 551. 15 | 铂金期货2606 | 2. 54% | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 545. 38 | -0. 74% | 金交所铂金 | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2137.90 | 2. 37% | | | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2149. 70 | 3. 10% | 439. 10 | 2. 34% | 锂金期货2606 | | | | | | 人民币现货包金 | 412. 00 | -1.67% | 价格 | 纽约锂主连(前日) | 1.727.50 | -1.00% | | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1, 710. 00 | 0. 35% | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨 ...

2026 年 2 月 12 日 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 2）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 3）SMM 报道印尼林业工作组披露了多家企业违规占用林地，面临的潜在罚款约 80.2 万亿印尼盾，部 分受影响的矿山正与政府部门进行积极协商以解决这些处罚，最终的罚款金额可能会低于最初估算的 80.2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 139,360 | 6,010 | 1,680 | -5,010 | -4,840 | 19,980 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; the soybean No.1 futures market is strong, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [1] - The price of CBOT soybean futures closed higher on February 11, mainly affected by technical buying and expectations of Chinese demand. The prospect of China purchasing more US soybeans under the trade truce agreement boosted the futures market, but the uncertainty of China's procurement remains the main factor affecting the market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Prices - DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,519 yuan/ton during the day session, up 60 yuan (+1.35%), and 4,563 yuan at night, up 62 yuan (+1.38%) [1] - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2,773 yuan/ton during the day session, up 40 yuan (+1.46%), and 2,768 yuan at night, up 10 yuan (+0.36%) [1] - CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1,123.5 cents/bushel, up 0.25 cents (+0.02%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 302.7 dollars/short ton, up 1.7 dollars (+0.56%) [1] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) is 3,060 - 3,100 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan from the previous day. Rizhao Bangji offers M2609 + 20, and the delivery from post - holiday to the end of March is M2605 + 310 [1] - In East China, the price of soybean meal at Taizhou Huifu is 3,050 yuan/ton, unchanged. Zhangjiagang Dafei offers different premiums for different delivery periods, all unchanged [1] - In South China, the price of soybean meal is 3,060 - 3,190 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan from the previous day. Dongguan Bangji and Qinzhou Gangqing offer different premiums for different delivery periods [1] 3.1.3 Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.54 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 4.53 million tons two trading days ago [1] - The inventory of soybean meal was 88.16 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared with 89.95 million tons two trading days ago [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 11, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying and expectations of Chinese demand. Traders have been evaluating the possibility of China increasing purchases of US soybeans. Brazil has started harvesting a record - breaking soybean crop, but the prospect of China's potential purchases of US soybeans boosted the market. The uncertainty of China's procurement remains a major factor. Heavy rainfall in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has raised concerns about soybean quality [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is +1, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3]