2025 年 08 月 06 日 锌：偏弱震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 【新闻】 1. 短债高峰来了，美国财政部本周拟创纪录发行千亿四周期国债。除了周四计划发行的 1000 亿美元四 周期国债，美国财政部本周还计划发行 850 亿美元八周期国债、650 亿美元 17 周期国债、580 亿美元三年 期国债、420 亿美元十年期国债、250 亿美元 30 年期国债。上周财政部已暗示，至少到 2026 年，都将更依 赖短债填补政府预算赤字。（华尔街见闻） 2. 高盛、花旗：若非农再恶化，美联储 9 月或激进降息 50 基点，利率终点 3% 或更低。美国最新就业 数据显示美国经济和劳动力市场正急剧放缓，已让华尔街确信美联储的政策拐点迫在眉睫。高盛与花旗等 纷纷预测，25 基点甚至 50 基点的降息最早将在 9 月启动，政策利率的最终落点可能下探至 3% 甚至更低。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Manganese Silicon: Market Information Disturbance, Wide - Range Fluctuations" and was published on August 6, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamentals Tracking Futures - Silicon iron futures: SiFe2509 closed at 5716 with a change of 42 from the previous trading day, trading volume was 220,383 and open interest was 145,226; SiFe2510 closed at 5704 with a change of 42, trading volume was 43,826 and open interest was 54,273 [1] - Manganese silicon futures: MnSi2509 closed at 6018 with a change of 46, trading volume was 283,346 and open interest was 254,120; MnSi2510 closed at 6026 with a change of 50, trading volume was 25,921 and open interest was 40,146 [1] Spot - Silicon iron spot price in Inner Mongolia (FeSi75 - B) was 5400 yuan/ton; silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia (FeMn65Si17) was 5800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.5 yuan/ton - degree; and semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton [1] Price Spreads - Silicon iron (spot - 09 futures) spread was - 316 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) spread was - 218 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Silicon iron 2509 - 2601 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; manganese silicon 2509 - 2601 spread was - 92 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - Manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 spread was 302 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 spread was 254 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On August 5, silicon iron 72 prices in different regions had some declines: in Shaanxi it was 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton (- 100), in Inner Mongolia it was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton (- 50). Silicon iron 75 also had price drops in various regions. Silicon manganese 6517 had northern quotes of 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton (- 50) and southern quotes of 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton (- 50) [2] - A steel mill in Shandong set the silicon manganese price at 6100 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory) with a purchase volume of 2500 tons. Steel mills in Guangdong and Jiangxi set their silicon manganese prices at 6050 yuan/ton and 6100 yuan/ton respectively (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory, based on standard) [2] - In July, the electricity price for silicon iron production was stable with some increases. In Ningxia, it was between 0.35 - 0.41 yuan/kWh, with a few increasing by 1 - 3 cents and most remaining flat. In Haidou, Qinghai, the off - peak price was 0.37 - 0.38 yuan/kWh, up 3 - 4 cents. The price of semi - coke increased, shifting the cost center of silicon iron upwards [3] - NMT announced the September 2025 shipment price of manganese ore to China. The South African block with a minimum of 36% Mn was quoted at 4.05 US dollars/ton - degree, up 0.15 US dollars/ton - degree from the previous month [5] - On August 4, the Ningxia Manganese - Based Alloy Industry High - Quality Development Conference was held in Pingluo County, Ningxia. It decided to establish working groups for supply, sales, technical quality, trade futures, supervision, legal affairs, and policy coordination, aiming to create a "Ningxia Model" for the manganese - based alloy industry [5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with 0 indicating neutral [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend predictions and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends include oscillating repeatedly, wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance or market information disturbances, and strong - side oscillations [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton with a 1.01% increase. The previous day's position decreased by 18,144 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the exception of domestic ores in some regions. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,233 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.38%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,457 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton (1.89%). Production, inventory, and apparent demand data for rebar and hot - rolled coils in the week of July 31st showed different trends. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][9][10]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined. Other news includes steel production data from key steel enterprises in mid - July and price - related regulations [10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 80 yuan/ton, while the price of manganese ore decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - **News**: There are price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, steel mill procurement information, and news about electricity prices and manganese ore shipment prices [14][15][17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillations [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased by 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke types changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [19]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various log types remained mostly stable. The trend strength is 1 [23][25]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [25].

【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16775 | 0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1963.5 | -0.53% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 40133 | -6065 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 7016 | -1913 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 72083 | 753 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 149440 | 2057 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -50 | -25 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -38.5 | -5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -60 | -10 | 进口升贴水（美 | 105 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -402.88 | 84.06 | 沪铅连三进口盈亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the trends and investment suggestions for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It suggests trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment for each commodity [11][12]. Summary by Catalog PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Overview**: On August 5, Asian PX prices were range - bound, with the Platts assessment up 50 cents/ton to $838.83/ton. PTA had a 120 - million - ton device restarting and a 150 - million - ton device planned for maintenance. MEG had a 75 - million - ton/year device in Malaysia shut down, and the planned arrival at major ports from August 4 - 10 was about 138,000 tons. Polyester sales were light on August 5 [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA trend intensities are - 1, while MEG's is 0 [10]. - **View and Suggestion**: For PX, conduct a reverse spread on the monthly difference and short PXN on rallies. For PTA, conduct a positive spread on the monthly difference at low levels. For MEG, conduct a positive spread on the monthly difference at low levels, and go long on MEG and short on PTA [11][12]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, the rubber futures' daily and night - session closing prices increased, but trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of various rubber types rose slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [14]. - **Industry News**: The UK's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy measures on Chinese truck and bus tires will be extended for 5 years. Exports to the UK will remain restricted, and exports of passenger car tires are also under pressure [17][18]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, the closing price of synthetic rubber futures increased, but trading volume, open interest, and turnover decreased. The prices of raw materials and products changed slightly, and the operating rate decreased. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - **Industry News**: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. The inventory of butadiene at East China ports continued to decline. In the short - term, it is in a weak shock, and in the medium - term, it will enter a shock pattern [20][21]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, asphalt futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest of some contracts decreased, and the basis and inter - month spread changed. Spot prices in some regions decreased, the refinery operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory rate decreased slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [23]. - **Market Information**: From July 29 - August 4, 2025, domestic asphalt production decreased. As of August 4, factory inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [35]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, LLDPE futures prices increased, the basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The market price fluctuated slightly, and terminal demand was for moderate restocking [36]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Macroscopically, the fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly. Supply will increase in the third quarter, and demand support is weak, so the trend still faces pressure [37]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, PP futures prices increased, the basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The market trading volume was light [40][41]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [41]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, the price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures was 2506, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 820, and the basis was 57 [43]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: In the short - term, caustic soda is under pressure due to the off - season and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts. In the long - term, there are expectations for peak - season demand [45]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, pulp futures prices decreased slightly, trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis and inter - month spread changed. Spot prices of different pulp types were stable. The trend intensity is 0 [49]. - **Industry News**: The pulp market is in a stalemate, with futures prices fluctuating narrowly and spot trading sparse. Demand is weak, and paper mills' raw material procurement is light [50]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, glass futures prices decreased, the basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions decreased. The market trading atmosphere was average [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [55]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, methanol futures prices increased slightly, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index increased. The northwest market was strong, and the Shandong market followed the price increase, but demand was mainly for rigid needs [60]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, urea futures prices increased, trading volume increased significantly, and open interest decreased. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and factory and trading prices in some regions increased slightly. The trend intensity is 1 [62]. - **Industry News**: On August 5, urea production increased. The Indian tender on August 4 received over 4.5 million tons of offers. In the short - term, prices may rebound, but in the medium - term, they may decline after rising [63][64]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, styrene futures prices changed slightly, and profit margins decreased. The trend intensity is - 1 [65]. - **Spot News**: Pure benzene supply and demand both increased, while styrene supply increased and demand decreased. Compress profit margins, and focus on shorting styrene. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase [66]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, soda ash futures prices increased, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices were stable. The trend intensity is 0 [70]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with supply at a high level and demand weak [70]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, LPG futures prices decreased, and propylene futures prices changed slightly. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and the operating rates of related industries such as PDH, MTBE, and alkylation changed. The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are both 0 [73]. - **Market Information**: On August 4, the expected prices of Saudi CP for propane and butane in September and October decreased. There are many domestic PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [80][81]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, PVC futures prices increased slightly, but spot trading was light. The basis and inter - month spread are - 152 and - 135 respectively. The trend intensity is 0 [82]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the second half of the year, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market will short the chlor - alkali profit [82][83]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, fuel oil futures prices had a narrow - range adjustment at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil was weaker than high - sulfur in the short - term. Spot prices of fuel oil in different regions changed slightly. The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both 0 [86]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: On August 6, the container freight index (European line) futures prices of some contracts decreased, while others increased. Freight rates of European and US - West routes decreased. The trend is expected to remain weak, and short positions can be held as appropriate [88].

2025 年 8 月 6 日 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 31 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹-0.9 万吨，热卷+5.3 万吨，五大品种合计+0.65 万吨；总 库存方面，螺纹+7.65 万吨，热卷+2.79 万吨，五大品种合计+15.39 万吨；表需方面，螺-13.17 万吨，热 卷-8.31 万吨，五大品种合计-15.9 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 【中共中央政治局:依法依规治理企业无房竞争。推进重点行业产能治理】会议指出要坚定不移深化改 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,233 | 44 ...

2025 年 08 月 06 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：基本面弱势格局，关注市场情绪 多晶硅：消息扰动增加 资料来源：SMM，百川盈孚，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 8 月 4 日，河北省发改委下发《关于组织开展绿电直连项目申报工作的通知》，有序推进绿电直连工 作。根据文件，优先支持三类项目：优先支持算力、钢铁、水泥、化工、制氢、锂离子电池制造、生物医药 等重点行业企业申报；优先支持已纳入风电、光伏项目储备库的项目申请开展绿电直连；鼓励尚未开展电网 接入工程建设或因新能源消纳受限无法并网的新能源项目履行变更手续后开展绿电直连。在具体的并网比 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,450 | 90 | -900 | 470 | | | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PVC 基本面数据 09合约期货价格 华东现货价格 基差 9-1月差 5042 4890 -152 -135 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 黑色焦炭低价反弹，午后盘中触及涨停，带动黑色相关产业成本性推涨，午后 PVC 盘面小幅拉升，然 现货市场需求心态谨慎，市场成交平淡，供需基本面未有变化，现货成交重心承压，华东地区电石法五型现 汇库提在 4850-4950 元/吨，乙烯法在 4900-5150 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造，目前反 内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。但短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动，关注焦煤等商品走势。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此轮反弹过程中大幅扩张。下半年看，供应端减产驱动不足，PVC 高产量， 高库存的结构难以缓解，因此市场后期仍会做空氯碱利润。 PVC：区间震荡行情 期货研究 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 6, 2025 - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Wide - Range Fluctuations, Resource - End Disturbances Unresolved - Analysts: Shao Wanyi (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0015722), Liu Hongru (Contact, Futures Trading Qualification No.: F03124172) 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations, and the resource - end disturbances have not been settled yet [1]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]. 3. Content Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 67,680 yuan, down 1,240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 173,147 lots, down 74,751 lots; the open interest was 175,266 lots, down 32,504 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 67,840 yuan, down 1,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 437,207 lots, up 148,821 lots; the open interest was 232,062 lots, up 16,113 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 14,443 lots, up 1,840 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,520 yuan, up 1,090 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 3,360 yuan, up 1,050 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 160 yuan, down 40 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,710 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 110,360 yuan, up 80 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114,390 yuan, up 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 145,230 yuan, up 60 yuan from T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 70,988 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [3]. - In July 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 9.0GW/25.8GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting procurement and bidding work, and another 1.73GWh of energy storage DC - side orders were finalized. The proportion of independent energy storage projects in the total procurement scale was as high as 92%, while the proportion of renewable energy - paired energy storage projects has been declining for several months, reaching only 3.8% in July [4].

焦炭：偏强震荡 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | | --- | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 1035 | 29.5 | 2.9% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1634. 5 | 19.5 | 1.2% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 542302 | 178776 | -39264 | | | | J2509 | 32559 | 25675 | -107 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临 ...