期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 白糖：外弱内强 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 14.47 | -0.5 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 46 | -2 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5730 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -11 | 3 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5445 | -1 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 285 | 1 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西 9 月下半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 11%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴 西 9 月出口 325 万吨，同比减少 16%；巴西 8 月出口 374 万吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同 比减少 5%。中国 9 月进口食糖 55 万吨（+15 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate shows a strong basis and is in a moderately bullish oscillating trend [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased, with the 2511 contract closing at 81,120 yuan and the 2601 contract at 81,900 yuan. The trading volume of the 2511 contract decreased, while that of the 2601 contract increased. The open interest of the 2511 contract decreased, and that of the 2601 contract increased [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was -4,570 yuan, and between spot and 2601 contract was -5,350 yuan. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts was -780 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased, reaching 906 yuan and 1,990 yuan respectively [1] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) all increased. For example, battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 76,550 yuan [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of various downstream products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased to 97,500 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 76,595 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,193 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 76,550 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 74,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 1,150 yuan/ton [2] - As of October 22, 2025, the number of applications for automobile trade - in subsidies exceeded 10 million, with over 3.4 million for scrapping and over 6.6 million for replacement. New energy vehicles accounted for 57.2% in the 2025 automobile trade - in, driving a 24.4% year - on - year increase in new energy passenger vehicle retail sales from January to September, with a market penetration rate of 52.1% (57.8% in September) [3] - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of scrapped automobile recoveries was 7.345 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. It is estimated that about 7.1 million tons of steel, 0.92 million tons of aluminum, and 0.93 million tons of plastic can be recycled, promoting a carbon reduction of over 21 million tons [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 PP：短期止跌，中期震荡 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场价格大稳小动。期货午前弱势震荡抑制现货市场交易心态，上游个别石化厂价小幅松 动，成本支撑趋弱，但场内部分均聚注塑以及中高熔共聚供应偏紧，支撑贸易商报盘，现货价格变动不 大。午后盘面翻红，但下游接货意愿依旧谨慎，整体询盘一般，成交均值水平。（卓创资讯） 【市场状况分析】 贸易战、油价因素、高供应因素、下游加工制品低利润因素共同构成 PP 趋势下行压力。但近期美俄 关系再次恶化带动油价反弹，而贸易战市场普遍预期打是为了谈。近期 PP 供应端又阶段性减产，刚需方 面也较为稳定，短期市场反弹合理。长期趋势看，下行驱动因素又难以根本性解决，因此市场短期止跌， 但中期或是震荡偏弱格局。 【趋势强度】 PP 趋势强度：0 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

2025 年 10 月 28 日 合成橡胶：基本面估值区间内运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （12合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 10,995 | 11,120 | -125 31320 | | | | | | 131,980 | 100,660 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 49,618 | 66,694 | -17076 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 729,070 | 561,476 | 167595 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 55 | 30 | 25 | | | 月差 | BR11-BR12 | | 60 | 70 | -10 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,800 | 1 ...

2025 年 10 月 28 日 工业硅：仓单继续去化，底部较有支撑 多晶硅：情绪发酵，管住本周政策情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） Si2601成交量（手） | 8,965 198,198 | 45 10,934 | 400 7,866 | 0 -77,792 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 201,518 | 15,179 | 87,282 | -84,155 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 54,500 | 2,195 | 4,160 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 238,898 | 69,856 | 88,126 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 105,877 | 24,322 | 49,071 | - ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 焦炭：偏强震荡 焦煤：基本面支撑，偏强震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1263.5 | 15 | 1.2% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1779.5 | 22 | 1.3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 976752 | 667831 | -4814 | | | | J2601 | 20467 | 40488 | 162 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主值 | 1600 | 1600 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1332 | 1307 | 25 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1575 ...

Report Overview - Date: October 28, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Scope: Precious metals and basic metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Expected to continue falling [2][4] - Silver: Forecasted to rebound with fluctuations [2][4] - Copper: Positive market sentiment to support prices [2][9] - Zinc: Likely to have a slight rebound [2][12] - Lead: Decrease in overseas inventories to support prices [2][15] - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][17] - Aluminum: To trade within a range; Alumina to rebound from the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Nickel: Nickel prices to trade in a narrow range due to the game between smelting inventory build - up and nickel ore concerns; Stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [2][23] Summary by Metal Gold - **Price Performance**:沪金2512昨日收盘价934.14，日涨幅 - 0.42%，夜盘收盘价919.70，夜盘涨幅 - 2.25%；Comex黄金2512昨日收盘价3997.00，日涨幅 - 3.15% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪金2512成交量386,272，较前日增加15,360；持仓量180,815，较前日减少4,998；Comex黄金2512成交量324,262，较前日增加32,301；持仓量352,515，较前日减少420 [4] - **Inventory**:沪金库存87,015千克，无变动；Comex黄金库存（前日）38,877,087金衡盎司，减少81,828 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Silver - **Price Performance**:沪银2512昨日收盘价11394，日涨幅0.54%，夜盘收盘价11150.00，夜盘涨幅 - 2.44%；Comex白银2512昨日收盘价46.830，日涨幅 - 3.26% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪银2512成交量94,606，较前日增加22,560；持仓量113,856，较前日减少1,627；Comex白银2512成交量155,458，较前日增加57,975；持仓量122,583，无变动 [4] - **Inventory**:沪银库存647,643千克，减少17328；Comex白银库存（前日）496,946,989金衡盎司，减少1,034,073 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Copper - **Price Performance**:沪铜主力合约昨日收盘价88,370，日涨幅0.74%，夜盘收盘价88130，夜盘涨幅 - 0.27%；伦铜3M电子盘昨日收盘价11,001，日涨幅0.49% [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铜指数成交量397,173，较前日增加95,594；持仓量613,133，较前日增加29,521；伦铜3M电子盘成交量24,511，较前日减少1,154；持仓量321,000，较前日增加1,413 [9] - **Inventory**:沪铜期货库存35,392，增加321；伦铜库存135,975，减少375 [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a bullish outlook [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**:沪锌主力收盘价22365，涨幅0.04%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘价3019.5，跌幅 - 0.10% [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锌主力成交量120077，减少10384；持仓量121184，增加1017；伦锌成交量11517，减少4003；持仓量222244，减少1274 [12] - **Inventory**:沪锌期货库存65724，减少125；LME锌库存37050，减少550 [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Lead - **Price Performance**:沪铅主力收盘价17520，跌幅 - 0.43%；伦铅3M电子盘收盘价2016.5，涨幅0.22% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铅主力成交量81722，增加2208；持仓量84395，增加549；伦铅成交量4991，减少3339；持仓量154158，减少958 [15] - **Inventory**:沪铅期货库存23048，无变动；LME铅库存232375，减少3000 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Tin - **Price Performance**:沪锡主力合约昨日收盘价286,720，日涨幅0.85%，夜盘收盘价285,580，夜盘涨幅0.22%；伦锡3M电子盘昨日收盘价36,090，日涨幅1.23% [17] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锡主力合约成交量102,206，增加31,425；持仓量45,084，增加7,008；伦锡3M电子盘成交量180，减少9；持仓量13,988，增加53 [17] - **Inventory**:沪锡期货库存5,652，增加85；伦锡库存2,725，减少25 [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**:沪铝主力合约收盘价21360；LME铝3M收盘价2879；沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价2829；铝合金主力合约收盘价20715 [21] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铝主力合约成交量209248，持仓量311269；沪氧化铝主力合约成交量278561，持仓量372484；铝合金主力合约成交量6715，持仓量6366 [21] - **Inventory**:国内铝锭社会库存61.60万吨；LME铝锭库存46.93万吨 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: All at 0, indicating neutral outlooks [22] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**:沪镍主力收盘价122,400；不锈钢主力收盘价12,815 [23] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪镍主力成交量129,533；不锈钢主力成交量212,724 [23] - **Industry News**: Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine area, expected to affect nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; Indonesia sanctioned 190 mining companies [23][24] - **Trend Intensity**: Both at 0, indicating neutral outlooks [25]

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 期指：新政不断落地，偏强震荡 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4716.02 | ↑1.19 | | 6726.7 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4701 | ↑1.30 | -15.02 | 369.6 | 26252 | ↑1860 | 41727 | ↑1286 | | IF2512 | 4684.4 | ↑1.24 | -31.62 | 998 | 71074 | ↓3098 | 157785 | ↑4370 | | IF2603 | 4656 | ↑1.26 | -60.02 | 174.4 | 12499 | ↓1678 | 56157 | ↑314 | | IF2606 | 4620.6 | ↑1.40 | -95 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including short - term strength for p - xylene, short - term rebounds for PTA and MEG, and different trends such as oscillation, decline, and stability for other commodities [2][10][11][13] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Anti - involution drives supply contraction expectations, with a short - term upward trend and positive spreads in monthly contracts. The domestic device operating rate is 85.9% (+1%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78.5% (+0.5%) [10] - **PTA**: The market focuses on potential anti - involution policies, with a short - term rebound but limited upside. The domestic PTA load is 78.8% (+2.1%), and polyester load remains at 91.4% [10][11][12] - **MEG**: Multiple device overhauls lead to supply contraction, with a short - term rebound but limited upside. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce load in December, and Sichuan Zhengdaikai plans to overhaul in November [10][13] Rubber - The rubber market shows an oscillating and strengthening trend. As of October 26, 2025, the combined inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas decreased by 0.53 million tons, a decline of 1.20% [14][15][16] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market operates within the fundamental valuation range. The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the domestic cis - butadiene rubber ex - factory price is stable, but the market quotation range has declined [18][19][20] LLDPE - The LLDPE market mainly oscillates. The raw material crude oil price rebounds, and downstream demand provides support, but the supply pressure will gradually increase later [21][22] PP - The PP market stops falling in the short term and oscillates in the medium term. Multiple factors cause downward pressure, but recent factors such as oil price rebounds and supply cuts lead to a short - term rebound [25][26] Caustic Soda - The far - month valuation of caustic soda is suppressed. The alumina industry's high - production and high - inventory pattern puts pressure on caustic soda, and the cost has decreased recently [29][30] Pulp - The pulp market oscillates. The supply pressure persists, and the downstream demand is average, lacking strong driving factors [34][36][37] Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The domestic float glass market price is generally stable with minor fluctuations, and the market trading atmosphere is average [39][40] Methanol - The methanol market is under oscillating pressure. The high supply and high inventory put pressure on the price, but port logistics contradictions provide some support [42][45][46] Urea - The urea market oscillates in the short term. The market is in a stalemate after the increase, with high supply and weak demand as the main contradictions in the medium term [47][49][50] Styrene - The styrene market mainly oscillates in the short term. The supply and demand are balanced in stages, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. Attention should be paid to the marginal demand increase after the Sino - US negotiation [51][52] Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with a narrow increase in supply and general downstream demand [54] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes [57] - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, with a short - term weak and oscillating trend [58] PVC - The PVC market oscillates at a low level. The high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change, and the export may slow down [65][67] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session continues to rise, and it remains strong in the short term [68] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It maintains a strong trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded [68] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) oscillates and consolidates. The market is in a high - level oscillating and consolidating state [70][79]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: In the off - season, focus on the expected rebound opportunities of steel prices [2][6] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The spot market trading sentiment is average, with wide - range fluctuations [2][10] - **Coke**: Expected to fluctuate strongly [2][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, expected to fluctuate strongly [2][14] - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 2.01%. The position decreased by 6,796 lots to 558,846 lots. Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices declined. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.54%. Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.45%. Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend. The basis and spreads also changed [6] - **News**: In the week of October 23rd, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [10] - **News**: On October 27th, silicon - iron prices in different regions were reported, and NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [14] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both, indicating a relatively strong trend [15] Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with daily and weekly declines. The trading volume and position of some contracts changed significantly [17] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]