Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - Uncertainty in index futures remains high, and attention should be paid to position management [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - On February 12, the closing prices of the four major index futures contracts showed mixed trends: IF rose 0.07%, IH fell 0.29%, IC rose 1.24%, and IM rose 1% [1] - The total trading volume of index futures increased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 6,363 lots, IH by 2,280 lots, IC by 12,192 lots, and IM by 21,933 lots [2] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 945 lots, IH by 133 lots, while IC increased by 3,605 lots, and IM increased by 4,216 lots [2] 2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - The position changes of the top 20 members in each index futures contract vary. For example, in the IF2602 contract, long positions increased by 1,825 lots with a net change of 82 lots, and short positions increased by 2,886 lots with a net change of 1,042 lots [5] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 the most bullish [6] 4. Important Drivers - Concerns about AI eroding corporate profits led to a sharp decline in the US stock market, causing a broad decline in risk assets. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq falling more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 3% [6] - Trump's tariff policies face major uncertainties. The US House of Representatives passed a resolution against Trump's tariff on Canada, and the future of the USMCA also faces significant uncertainties [7] - The Chinese central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan six - month outright reverse repurchase operation on February 13, with an incremental scale of 500 billion yuan [6] 5. Market Performance - A - shares showed narrow - range fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.05% to 4,134.02 points. Power stocks strengthened, while consumer stocks such as film and television, retail, and food underperformed [7] - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and declined. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.86% to 27,032.54 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.65% to 5,408.98 points [8]

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：周度库存去库，关注节前资金行为 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注下方空间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 139,610 | 250 | 5,180 | -7,860 | 1,160 | ...

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -0.5 | -0.07% | | | I2605 | | 762.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 497,918 | -9,039 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple energy - chemical products are in different market trends. Some are in shock operation, some are showing price increases or decreases, and some are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: Overseas supply in Vietnam is tightening, and Thailand is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Downstream tire enterprise capacity utilization has decreased significantly, and demand is weak. Qingdao inventory is high and shows a seasonal accumulation trend [4][7][8] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: Oscillating before the festival [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have all decreased. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [9][10] LLDPE - **Market Trend**: Northeast Asian ethylene bottoms out, and it is in a shock market due to pre - festival capital risk - aversion [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: Crude oil prices fall and stabilize, ethylene monomer is weak, downstream demand is weakening, and the supply - side inventory transfer before the Spring Festival leads to a temporary lack of fundamental contradictions [12][13] PP - **Market Trend**: C3 raw materials are strong, and valuation repair is limited [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side crude oil and propane prices are strong, supply - side new production before the 2605 contract is limited, and demand - side downstream new orders are mainly for rigid needs [15][16] Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: Stronger shock due to cost increase [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable, leading to an increase in caustic soda costs. Demand is weak, and there are expectations of production reduction and load reduction in March [20] Pulp - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][23] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading volume of imported pulp spot market decreases, and prices are stable. Downstream paper mills' raw material replenishment is basically completed, and port inventory is accumulating [26][27] Glass - **Market Trend**: The original sheet price is stable [2][28] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream's procurement volume of the original sheet decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. Market demand declines, and trading is light [29] Methanol - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][31] - **Fundamentals**: The port methanol market fluctuates narrowly, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The inland price rises slightly. The overall fundamental driving force is neutral to downward, and there is cost support at the bottom [34][35] Urea - **Market Trend**: The price center moves up [2][37] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreases slightly. Before the festival, there is support from spot transactions and strong expectations of agricultural spring plowing demand [39][40] Styrene - **Market Trend**: High - level shock [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Capital withdraws, and the absolute price is in a high - level shock. Styrene profits are at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival [42] Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market has little change [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable enterprise device operation, high - level supply, and weak downstream demand after pre - festival stocking [44] LPG - **Market Trend**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [2][47] - **Fundamentals**: There are geopolitical disturbances, and the trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts show different changes. The operating rates of some industrial chains change [48] Propylene - **Market Trend**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the spot price is stable [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts change, and the operating rates of related industrial chains are stable [48] PVC - **Market Trend**: Weak shock [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: The commodity market sentiment weakens, PVC supply and demand are weak, exports decline, and inventory accumulates. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [59][60] Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Narrow - range adjustment, short - term stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][62] - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts change, and the spot prices in different regions also change [62] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Weakens at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][62] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, with changes in futures and spot prices [62] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: Shock market, hold a light position during the festival [2][64] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, spot freight rates are stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors have little impact on the European line. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance, and the 2606 contract has uncertainties in the resumption of navigation rhythm [64][73] Short - Fiber - **Market Trend**: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, spot prices are stable, downstream demand is weak, and the production - sales rate decreases [76] Bottle Chip - **Market Trend**: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, upstream raw materials fluctuate and fall, and the market trading atmosphere is light [76][77] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trend**: Wait and see before the festival [2][79] - **Fundamentals**: Spot prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, paper enterprises' production and sales are general, and downstream demand is weak [79][80][82] Pure Benzene - **Market Trend**: Stronger shock [2][83] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline slightly, port inventory decreases slightly, and spot prices rise slightly [83][84][85]

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：价格归位，春之序章 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：旧倦尽散，共赴新光 | 2 | | 豆粕：规避春节长假风险 | 4 | | 豆一：规避春节长假风险 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260213 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 9 | | 生猪：旺季备货结束，盘面升水小标仓单 | 10 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 13 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | 棕榈油：价格归位，春之序章 | | --- | 豆油：旧倦尽散，共赴新光 | | | | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,782 | 涨跌幅 -1.39% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,798 | 涨跌幅 0.18% | | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that there is a recurrence of liquidity risk in the crude oil market, suggesting a short - term wait - and - see approach [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI 3 - month crude oil futures fell $1.79, a 2.77% drop, to $62.84 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 fell $1.88, a 2.71% drop, to $67.52 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures fell $24.70, a 5.14% drop, to $456.30 per barrel [1]. Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of different alternative crude oils showed various changes. For example, the spread of Arab Extra Light was basically stable, while that of Forties deteriorated significantly. The changes were affected by factors such as refining value and crude oil price [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of different alternative crude oils also had different trends. For instance, the spread of Forties worsened, while that of Saharan Blend widened significantly, driven by factors like refining value, crude oil price, and freight [3]. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of alternative crude oils generally improved. For example, the spread of WTI MEH improved slightly, mainly due to significant crude oil price advantages offsetting high trans - Atlantic freight [4]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of some alternative crude oils improved to varying degrees, such as Saharan Blend and Azeri Light, mainly due to the narrowing of Urals' price advantage. However, the spread of Ekofisk remained basically unchanged [5]. China Crude Oil Arbitrage - The spreads of different alternative crude oils had different changes. The spread of Napo widened significantly due to a large discount in crude oil price relative to Dubai, while the spread of Duri deteriorated due to a negative refining value [6]. Key Market News - US President Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, warning of a "very serious" situation if not. The US Treasury will further relax sanctions on Venezuela, and the US has completed over $1 billion in Venezuelan oil sales, expecting an additional $5 billion. Russia has proposed "re - embracing the dollar" as part of an economic partnership with the US. A Russian refinery stopped oil processing after a drone attack [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

2026 年 2 月 13 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，轻仓过节 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1,177.9 | -1.42% | 17,204 | 33,027 | -872 | 0.52 | 0.87 | | | EC2606 | 1,501.0 | -0.93% | 3,655 | 14,185 | -555 | 0.26 | 0.28 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/2/9 | | 单 位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,657.94 | | | 点 | | -7.5% | | 运 价 | SCFIS ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and the monthly spread is in a reverse arbitrage. The geopolitical disturbance risk during the Spring Festival still exists, and the PX valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals weaken in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs relatively strongly. Investors should pay attention to position management [5]. - The downside space of PTA may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short PTA when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations in domestic and foreign markets. The polyester start - up rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. The current polyester inventory is moderately low, and the post - holiday pressure is less than in previous years. Multiple PTA device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Unilateral attention should be paid to the support at 5100 yuan/ton. Investors should pay attention to position management [6]. - The inventory of MEG continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still large. Conduct reverse arbitrage operations on the basis spread and monthly spread. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and it is difficult to digest the inventory after the festival. The basis spread and monthly spread trends are still weak. Investors should pay attention to position management [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC yesterday were 7312, 5220, 3723, 6622, and 476.8 respectively. The price changes were - 66, - 40, - 41, - 32, and 0, with price change rates of - 0.89%, - 0.76%, - 1.09%, - 0.48%, and 0.00% respectively. The monthly spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 had price changes of 4, - 2, 3, - 2, and - 1.3 respectively [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 910.33 dollars/ton, 5200 yuan/ton, 3630 yuan/ton, 612.12 dollars/ton, and 70.88 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were - 7, 20, - 33, - 5, and - 2.25 respectively [2]. Spot Processing Fees - The spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 294.05, 378.86, 71.28, 294.17, and - 4.34 respectively. The price changes were 5.96, - 49.15, 29.19, 70.13, and 0 respectively [2]. Fundamental Data - For PX, a March Asian spot was traded at 909, and an April Asian spot was traded at 910. The PX valuation was 910 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars [3]. - For PTA, the 250 - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy was shut down, and the PTA load on Thursday was 74.8% [3]. - For MEG, as of February 12, the overall ethylene glycol start - up load in the Chinese mainland was 76.81% (a 0.58% increase from the previous period), and the start - up load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 78.59% (a 1.82% increase from the previous period) [3]. - For polyester, a 50 - ton bottle - chip device was restarted, and 5 new polyester factories carried out device maintenance, mainly involving short - fiber and chips. The comprehensive polyester load continued to decline. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 77.7%. The start - up load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers mostly remained stable, with a slight reduction in some areas, so the overall start - up load decreased slightly. As of now, the overall theoretical start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is about 64% (since January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 328.6 tons) [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [5].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., suggesting investors to pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances and market uncertainties [2][9][10]. - Different commodities show different trends, such as some being in a range - bound market, some having upward or downward pressure, and some being affected by factors like supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: A pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The cost end is worried about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations, and the valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals are weak in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs strongly. Investors should manage positions [9]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short positions can be taken when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations, and the polyester start - up rate is expected to change. Multiple sets of device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Investors should pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support level and manage positions [10]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The basis and monthly spread are in a reverse - set operation. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but the demand side has large - scale shutdowns, resulting in large inventory accumulation pressure in February and difficult inventory digestion after the festival. Investors should manage positions [10]. Rubber - It is in a shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased. The order situation of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises shows different trends [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a pre - holiday shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased, and the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased [14][15]. LLDPE - The internal and external markets are close to a standstill, and the funds are risk - averse, showing a shock market. The raw material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the downstream demand has different situations. The supply - side maintenance plan has decreased, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [17][18]. PP - The C3 raw material performs strongly, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost end of crude oil and propane prices continues to be strong, and the demand side has limited support. The PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [20][21]. Caustic Soda - The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit may be challenged. The demand side is weak, and the supply - side reduction and load - reduction expectations are increasing after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [25]. Pulp - It is in a shock operation. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing before the festival, with few spot quotations and stagnant downstream procurement. The supply - demand fundamentals have no actual changes during the holiday, and the price is expected to end stably. Attention should be paid to the changes in port inventory and the impact of the macro - market on the pulp market [31][32]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market demand declines, and the overall trading is light [35][36]. Methanol - It is in a shock operation. The spot price shows a regional adjustment situation, and the port inventory has a small increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a limited range. The macro - level is in the process of negotiation between Iran and the United States, and the fundamental driving force is neutral to downward. The upper and lower price limits are affected by factors such as MTO profit and coal - based cost [41][42]. Urea - It is in a pre - holiday shock with support. The support comes from the improvement of spot transactions driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the festival. The fundamental pressure level of the 05 contract is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [45][46]. Styrene - It is in a high - level shock. The absolute price is in a high - level shock with the withdrawal of funds. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival and the opportunity of EB profit contraction and PX - EB [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable device operation and high supply. The downstream demand procurement is basically completed before the holiday, and the trading is light. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes. The industrial chain start - up rate and shipping volume have different trends [52]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes [52]. PVC - It is in a weakly shock operation. The domestic spot market trading is dull, and the supply - demand is weak. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to be weakly shocked before the festival. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may still trade delivery pressure and high forward premium [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and it may turn to a relatively strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market is still at a low level [64]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a shock market. The futures market has price and position changes. The spot market freight rate is stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors and shipping company policies have an impact on the market. Different contracts have different investment strategies [66][74][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The futures price fluctuates upward, the spot price is stable, and the downstream is mostly on holiday [77][78]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate upward, and the factory price is partially adjusted upward. The market trading atmosphere is average [77][78]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The spot market price is stable, the scale paper mills are stably producing, some small and medium - sized paper mills are shut down, and the dealer's order - receiving situation is not good [80][81]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strong shock. The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices and the price trend [84][85].