Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The accelerated decline in recent market conditions has made downstream buyers more cautious, and the limited volume of transactions at low - price points has limited support for the overall market. Due to the decline in downstream futures and a bearish outlook for the later market, buying intentions are low [2]. - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, with market offers falling further. Traders' offer sentiment is poor, and there is still pressure on transaction follow - up. Terminal buyers are cautious, and the focus of actual transactions is at the lower end of the range [3]. - In the short term, the weak operation of butadiene has driven down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. Butadiene rubber is gradually entering a pattern of high production, high inventory, and high profit, and is expected to have a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games in the short term, with the medium - term price center gradually moving downward [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (December contract) decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 10,805 yuan/ton. Trading volume decreased by 19,544 lots to 112,436 lots, open interest decreased by 967 lots to 48,651 lots, and turnover decreased by 117,842 ten - thousand yuan to 611,228 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 140 to 195, and the monthly spread (BR11 - BR12, private enterprise) remained unchanged at 60. The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton each. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 225 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 69.0377%. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to 10,946 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 97 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, with prices in Shandong's Luzhong area around 7900 - 8000 yuan/ton and in East China's ex - tank self - pick - up around 7650 - 7750 yuan/ton [2]. - Taking the Daqing BR9000 in Shandong as a benchmark, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber closed at 10,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, exceeding the morning's expectations. The market offer has declined further, and the reference price of private butadiene rubber in the northern region is 10,600 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a bearish view [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil origin is experiencing slow inventory reduction, and attention should be paid to the lower support level. The soybean oil price rebounds with the rise of US soybeans, and the oil - meal ratio declines [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of palm oil主力 was 8,958 yuan/ton (down 1.56% during the day session and 8,824 yuan/ton, down 1.50% during the night session). The closing price of soybean oil主力 was 8,182 yuan/ton (down 0.63% during the day session and 8,080 yuan/ton, down 1.25% during the night session). The closing price of rapeseed oil主力 was 9,730 yuan/ton (down 0.18% during the day session and 9,659 yuan/ton, down 0.73% during the night session). The Malaysian palm oil主力 was 4,315 ringgit/ton (down 1.30% during the day session and 4,290 ringgit/ton, down 0.63% during the night session). The CBOT soybean oil主力 was 50.16 cents/pound (down 1.20%) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil主力 was 531,693 lots (an increase of 69,272 lots), and the open interest was 368,090 lots (an increase of 11,600 lots). The trading volume of soybean oil主力 was 257,069 lots (a decrease of 14,197 lots), and the open interest was 489,097 lots (an increase of 11,003 lots). The trading volume of rapeseed oil主力 was 136,617 lots (a decrease of 16,166 lots), and the open interest was 240,247 lots (a decrease of 3,196 lots) [2]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton (a decrease of 130 yuan/ton), the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton), and the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,100 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton). The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,085 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 58 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 368 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spread**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil主力 was 772 yuan/ton, the futures price spread between soybean oil and palm oil主力 was - 776 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 price spread of palm oil was - 22 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 price spread of soybean oil was 180 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 price spread of rapeseed oil was 387 yuan/ton [2]. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Indonesia**: GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to increase by 10% to about 5,600 - 5,700 million tons (previously estimated at 5,363 million tons), and exports to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons (higher than 2,900 million tons in 2024). In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 254 million tons (down 1% from the previous month), with exports of 347 million tons (down 1.8% month - on - month) and production of 506 million tons [3][4]. - **US Crop Harvest**: As of Sunday, the US soybean harvest was expected to be 84% complete, and the corn harvest 72% complete. Analysts' prediction ranges were 80% - 88% for soybeans and 67% - 80% for corn. Last year, the soybean harvest was 89% and the corn harvest was 81% at the same time [4]. - **Brazil's Soybean and Soybean Meal Exports**: Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 700 million tons (previously estimated at 734 million tons), and soybean meal exports are expected to reach 208 million tons (previously 209 million tons) [5]. - **Soybean Pressing Profit in Brazil**: In the week of October 20 - 24 in Mato Grosso, Brazil, the soybean pressing profit was 467.42 reais/ton (previously 457.72 reais/ton), with the soybean meal price at 1,512.91 reais/ton and the soybean oil price at 6,658.72 reais/ton [5]. - **EU's Agricultural Product Imports**: As of October 26, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 89 million tons (compared to 113 million tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 362 million tons (compared to 428 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 568 million tons (compared to 589 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 120 million tons (compared to 189 million tons last year) [5]. - **Nepal's Exports to India**: In the first quarter of the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, Nepal's exports to India soared by nearly 138% due to a surge in soybean oil exports. Processed edible oil (mainly soybean oil) accounted for nearly 52% of Nepal's exports to India, with exports of 306.9 billion Nepalese rupees [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [7].

| | | | | 期指：或呈现震荡格局 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4691.97 | ↓0.51 | | 5715.6 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4682.4 | ↓0.37 | -9.57 | 350.9 | 24886 | ↓1366 | 41097 | ↓630 | | IF2512 | 4669.6 | ↓0.33 | -22.37 | 1019 | 72481 | ↑1407 | 155110 | ↓2675 | | IF2603 | 4640.2 | ↓0.33 | -51.77 | 171.5 | 12271 | ↓228 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, suggesting a "moderately strong" outlook [4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of high - level spot bidding and is expected to run strongly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 80,800, with a change of - 320 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 64,993, down 4,495 from T - 1, and the open interest was 36,653, a decrease of 12,932 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 81,640, down 260 from T - 1. The trading volume was 729,307, an increase of 214,852 from T - 1, and the open interest was 488,803, up 5,325 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 27,335, a decrease of 404 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2511 was - 2,300, and that of spot - 2601 was - 3,140. The basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 840 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 925, up 19 from T - 1. The price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,065, up 75 from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500, up 1,950 from T - 1. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,300, up 2,000 from T - 1 [1]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,553 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,958 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan/ton from the previous workday, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 76,300 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Automobile Industry**: Chery Automobile announced a purchase tax subsidy plan, and currently, 10 brands have announced similar plans [2][4]. - **Mining Rights**: A subsidiary of Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. obtained a 30 - year mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with an annual production capacity of 80,000 tons of lithium carbonate [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: PXN should be sold short at high levels. PXN above 230 US dollars should lock in profits at high levels [7]. - PTA: The anti - involution policy creates an expectation of supply contraction, with limited upside potential for the single - side price. PTA processing fees are expected to expand in the short term [7]. - MEG: There will be a short - term rebound, but the upside is expected to be limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, and SC prices all declined yesterday, with PX down 0.12%, PTA down 0.04%, MEG down 0.97%, and SC down 1.32%. PF rose 0.13%. The month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC also showed different changes [2]. - Spot: PX, MEG, and Dated Brent prices declined, while PTA prices increased. The PX - naphtha spread, short - fiber processing fee, and bottle - chip processing fee decreased, while the PTA processing fee increased [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha declined at the end of the session. PX prices fell today. Concerns about weak PX demand affected the spot price. The planned meeting of major PTA and PET producers in China may be postponed. China's Fujia Dahua Petrochemical plans to increase the production of its PX plant [3][5]. - PTA: A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China has restarted [6]. - MEG: The planned arrival volume at major ports from October 27 to November 2 is about 198,000 tons [6]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were average today, with an average sales rate of over 50% by 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Views and Suggestions - PX: PXN should be sold short at high levels. Domestic and Asian PX device operating rates increased. Some devices have restart, maintenance, and load - reduction situations [7]. - PTA: Pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting. The downstream market is improving, and PTA processing fees are expected to expand in the short term [7]. - MEG: There will be a short - term rebound, but the upside is limited. Domestic supply may contract marginally, and port inventories are expected to be high [7].

2025 年 10 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 原油：暂时空单持有，关注东北亚供应紧张对 SC 支撑 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12 月原油期货收跌 1.16 美元/桶，跌幅 1.89%，报 60.15 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 1.22 美元/桶，跌幅 1.86%，报 64.40 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 8.30 元/桶，跌幅 1.78%， 报 458.10 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | | | | 套利状 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参考基 | 炼油配置 | 套利原油 | 态与价 | 关键说明 | | 准原油 | | | 值 (美元 /桶) | | | | | 阿拉伯超轻质 | -5.92 | 相对于美国本土轻质原油无套利 优势。 | | | 裂化 (FCC & | 阿拉伯轻质 | -7.01 | 套利窗口关闭，价差更大。 | | WTI MEH | HCU) | 安哥拉 Nemba | -5.42 | 无套利优势。 | | | ...

金 融 衍 生 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 28 日 股票股指期权：隐波持稳，可考虑卖出宽跨式 策略。 张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当月 | 当月基差 | 次月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 3050.42 | -19.11 | 54.63 | -15.78 | 3054.60 | 4.18 | 3054.80 | 4.38 | | 沪深300指数 | 4691.97 | -24.05 | 220.91 | -41.29 | 4686.20 | -5.77 | 4677.87 | -14.11 | | 中证1000指数 | 7479.22 | -16.16 | 251.80 | -13.54 | 7414.80 | -64.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Rebound from the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and spot market premiums, processing fees, and enterprise profitability [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,360 yuan, up 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was not provided. The LME注销仓单占比 was 13.77%, down 0.50% [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,829 yuan, up 19 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 278,561 lots, and the open interest was 372,484 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,715 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 6,715 lots, and the open interest was 6,366 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,107.80 yuan, up 65.40 yuan from the previous trading day. The aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.60 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,914 yuan, down 7 yuan from the previous trading day. The alumina Lianyungang CIF price was 344 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The Baotai ADC12 price was 20,700 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The three - place inventory totaled 48,375 tons, down 237 tons [1]. Other Related Products - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,830 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1].

短期震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com la 品 研 2025 年 10月 28 日 资料来源:同花顺,卓创,国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯趋势强度：0 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2表 示最看空，2表示最看多。 【现货消息】 空单止盈。原油价格快速低位反弹带动化工估值向上修复,前两周我们也提示过空单止盈。10月在海 外制裁影响之下，国内部分主营炼厂有降负预期，预计纯苯单月产量损失 2-4 万吨（根据届时实际降负情 况来决定)。10 月纯苯、苯乙烯的港口累库预期均转为去库预期。阶段性供需平衡,市场交易成本矛盾为 主。苯乙烯目前整体仍然比纯苯更弱,下游 3s 明显进入负反馈阶段,前期终端圈货陆续开始止损。终端 下游需求目前仍未见转好，重点关注中美谈判之后，贸易战缓和是否带来边际需求增量。短期绝对价格震 荡为主。 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...