Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report LLDPE has limited upside potential, and the basis has weakened again. The supply and demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand should be noted in the medium term [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2601 on the previous day was 6557, with a daily increase of 1.09%, trading volume of 619,069, and an open - interest change of 9,111. The 01 - contract basis was - 57 (previous day: 4), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 35 (previous day: - 10) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6500, 6650, and 6500 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of +10, +50, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the day before [1]. Spot News As the position - limit approaches, the futures market rebounds, and coal - chemical prices rise slightly. However, some ex - factory prices of petrochemical and oil companies are lowered, traders lack confidence, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor under weakening demand. The basis weakens again, and the destocking of warehouse receipts stops. The offering volume from the Middle East and the US decreases, and the prices are at a premium to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US are delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Raw Materials and Supply - demand**: Crude oil prices fluctuate, the monomer segment is weakly stable, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market oscillates at a low level. The demand for downstream agricultural films weakens, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreases slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan in December is neutral [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The driving factors for stock index futures are relatively empty, and the market will continue to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 【期指期现数据跟踪】 - On December 15, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. IF fell 0.64%, IH fell 0.08%, IC fell 0.88%, and IM fell 0.82% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 3,944 lots, IH increased by 5,638 lots, IC decreased by 20,021 lots, and IM decreased by 25,231 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 8,509 lots, IH decreased by 693 lots, IC decreased by 9,710 lots; and IM decreased by 11,978 lots [1][2] - The report also provides detailed data on closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volume, and positions for various contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] 【趋势强度】 - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, indicating the degree of bullish or bearish sentiment [6] 【重要驱动】 - China's economic data for November was released. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.44% month-on-month. The service industry production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year but decreased by 0.42% month-on-month. From January to November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year; excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 0.8%. Real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%, and the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8%. In November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.03% month-on-month, and the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month [7] - In November, 8 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities saw month-on-month increases in new commercial housing prices, up from 6 in October. Xiangyang and Hefei led the increase with 0.3%. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw changes of -0.5%, +0.1%, -0.5%, and -0.9% respectively. The sales prices of new commercial housing in first-tier cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The sales prices of new commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The sales prices of second-hand housing in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. The sales prices of second-hand housing in second-tier cities decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, the same as the previous month [8] - The Party Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission conveyed and implemented the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. It emphasized formulating a "15th Five-Year Plan" system for the capital market, cultivating high-quality listed companies, promoting long-term assessment of long-term funds, developing equity public funds, and strengthening risk monitoring and control. It also plans to deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market, implement the "1+6" reform measures for the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and promote the high-quality development of the private equity fund industry [8] A-share Market Performance - The three major A-share indexes declined with shrinking trading volume. The computing power hardware industry chain generally fell, while the big consumption and insurance industries strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.55% at 3,867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.1%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.77%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.09%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 2.22%, the Wind All A fell 0.63%, the Wind A500 fell 0.59%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.73%. The full-day trading volume of A-shares was 1.79 trillion yuan, compared with 2.12 trillion yuan the previous day. The CPO concept, shipbuilding, lidar, film and television theater, and computing power hardware concepts declined. Dairy stocks rose significantly, liquor stocks rebounded, insurance stocks strengthened, and the retail concept was active [9]

2025年12月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 777.0 | -5.5 | -0. 70% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment outlooks: - **Strongly Bullish**: Platinum (2), Palladium (2) [31] - **Bullish**: Polysilicon (1) [44] - **Neutral**: Gold (0), Silver (0), Copper (0), Zinc (0), Lead (0), Aluminum (0), Nickel (0), Stainless Steel (0), Carbonate Lithium (0), Industrial Silicon (0), Iron Ore (0), Rebar (0), Hot - Rolled Coil (0), Ferrosilicon (0), Manganese Silicon (0), Coke (0), Coking Coal (0), Logs (0), MEG (0), LLDPE (0), PP (0), Caustic Soda (0), Pulp (0), Methanol (0), Urea (0), Styrene (0), LPG (0), Propylene (0), PVC (0), Fuel Oil (0), Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (0), Container Freight Index (European Line) (0), Short - Fiber (0), Bottle Chip (0), Offset Printing Paper (0), Pure Benzene (0), Peanut (0) [6][12][15][19][25][33][38][41][45][47][52][57][61][72][82][84][87][92][100][105][109][116][117][125][128][130][139][142][147][183] - **Bearish**: Tin (-1), Alumina (-1), Synthetic Rubber (-1), PX (-1), PTA (-1), Soda Ash (-1), Palm Oil (-1), Soybean Oil (-1), Sugar (-1), Live Hogs (-1) [24][25][80][72][114][159][167][181] 2. Core Views The report provides daily updates on the fundamentals, market trends, and news of various commodities, offering short - term investment suggestions for each commodity: - **Metals**: For precious metals, gold saw an expected interest rate cut, while silver was in high - level adjustment. Base metals showed different trends, such as copper with an external - strong - internal - weak price oscillation, and zinc in short - term correction [6][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: In the energy and chemical sector, PX faced a situation where demand was seasonally weakening but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. PTA was also in a high - level oscillation, while MEG's planned unplanned load reduction improved the inventory accumulation pressure and provided short - term support at the bottom [65][72]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, palm oil was in a weak oscillation due to unclear production cuts, and soybean oil was struggling to stabilize as US soybeans were performing weakly [62]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and macro - economic news. The trend intensity was neutral. The previous day's closing prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot showed different changes, and trading volumes and open interests also fluctuated [6]. - **Silver**: It was in high - level adjustment. Similar to gold, its price, trading volume, and open interest data changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price showed an external - strong - internal - weak oscillation. Domestic and international copper futures prices, trading volumes, and inventories had corresponding changes. News such as China's economic data and Chile's copper production and investment also influenced the market [12]. - **Zinc**: There was a short - term correction. Key data such as prices, trading volumes, and premiums changed, and the trend intensity was neutral [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: Demand was seasonally weakening, but supply remained tight, resulting in a high - level oscillation. There were changes in device operations, prices, and spreads. It was recommended to operate in the 6550 - 7000 range and take corresponding hedging measures [65][72]. - **PTA**: Although the cost - side PX supply - demand was tight, polyester was starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so there was limited upside space. It was recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [72][73]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Due to unclear production cuts, it was in a weak oscillation. Export data showed a decline compared to the previous month [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: As US soybeans were performing weakly, soybean oil was struggling to stabilize. NOPA data showed an increase in US soybean oil inventory [152][157].

2025年12月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：复产消息反复，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高做空为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：报价抬升 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 114,690 | -900 | -3,340 | -3,160 | -4,240 | -7,290 | | 期 | | 不锈钢 ...

【国际原油】 NYMEX WTI 期货 01 合约跌 0.62 美元，跌幅 1.08%，报 56.82 美元/桶；ICE 布油期货 02 合约跌 0.56 美元，跌幅 0.92%，报 60.56 美元/桶；SC2602 原油期货收跌 5.50 元/桶，跌幅 1.26%，报 431.70 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品 | 对基准 | 炼厂配 | 状态 (2025- | 套利空间 | 关键市场动态 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 油 | 置 | | (USD/桶) | | | | | | 12-12) | | | | Arab Extra | WTI | Crackin g (FCC | Closed | -5 | 沙特超轻质原油套利窗口持续关闭。 | | | MEH | | | | | | Light | | & HCU) | | | | | Arab Light | WTI | Crackin g (FCC | Closed | -5.64 | 与 WTI MEH 相比无成本优势。 | | | MEH | | | | | | | | & ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on December 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Views - Palm oil:减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 [2] - Soybean oil:美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 [2] - Soybean meal:美豆小幅收跌，连粕或震荡 [2] - Soybean:现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 [2] - Corn:关注现货 [2] - Sugar:偏弱运行 [2] - Cotton:震荡偏强关注下游需求20251216 [2] - Eggs:震荡调整 [2] - Hogs:冬至需求预期落地，仓单增量 [2] - Peanuts:关注油厂收购 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of palm oil futures had a decline, with a -0.58% drop in the day - session and -1.43% at night. The trading volume decreased by 32,641 hands, and the open interest decreased by 7,815 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 80 yuan/ton. [5] - **News**: AmSpec and ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.37% and 15.89% respectively compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October. [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of soybean oil futures was 8,558 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.22% drop and 8,436 yuan/ton at night with a -3.72% drop. The trading volume increased by 15,699 hands, and the open interest decreased by 21,110 hands. The spot price in Guangdong dropped by 50 yuan/ton. [5] - **News**: NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November decreased by 5.1% compared to October but increased by 11.8% compared to the same period in 2024. The soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies reached a seven - month high. USDA reported private exporters' sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 delivery. [9][10] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: For DCE soybean 2601, the day - session closing price was 4,130 yuan/ton with a -0.51% drop, and 4,084 yuan/ton at night with a -1.40% drop. For DCE soybean meal 2605, the day - session closing price was 2,758 yuan/ton with a -0.54% drop, and 2,748 yuan/ton at night with a -0.51% drop. [13] - **News**: On December 15, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined due to concerns about US soybean exports and the expected harvest in Brazil. Private exporters reported sales of 13.6 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/2026. NOPA's November soybean crushing volume decreased by 5.1% from October but increased by 11.83% from the same period last year. [13][15] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,228 yuan/ton in the day - session with a -0.67% drop and 2,226 yuan/ton at night with a -0.09% drop. The trading volume of C2601 decreased by 10,638 hands, and the open interest decreased by 47,264 hands. [17] - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping collection price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain collection price remained flat. The price in Guangdong Shekou was stable, and the container price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were relatively stable, and North China prices were stable with a slight increase. [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.93 cents/pound with a -0.17 change. The mainstream spot price was 5,370 yuan/ton with a -10 change. The futures main contract price was 5,207 yuan/ton with a -7 change. [20] - **News**: As of December 15, the 25/26 sugar - making season in India had a 28.3% increase in sugar production year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year, and exports in November decreased by 9 tons year - on - year. China's sugar imports in October increased by 21 tons, and imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased by 11 tons. [20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,990 yuan/ton in the day - session with a 1.01% increase and 14,020 yuan/ton at night with a 0.21% increase. The trading volume increased by 154,405 hands, and the open interest increased by 13,531 hands. [25] - **News**: Cotton spot trading volume increased significantly. Cotton yarn prices had local fluctuations, with the overall off - season atmosphere remaining strong. ICE cotton futures had a small increase but then declined due to poor export data. [26] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of eggs 2601 was 3,122 yuan/500 kilograms with a 1.23% increase, and the trading volume decreased by 69,982 hands, and the open interest decreased by 4,363 hands. [29] Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 11,480 yuan/ton with a 50 increase. The futures prices of hogs 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 11,400 yuan/ton, 11,305 yuan/ton, and 11,905 yuan/ton respectively. [32] - **News**: Multiple companies registered hog futures warehouse receipts in December, including Yunnan Shennong, Guizhou Fuyuan, etc. [33] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,090 yuan/ton with a -0.02% drop, and the trading volume decreased by 5,391 hands, and the open interest decreased by 6,720 hands. [36] - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions had different trends. In Henan, prices were basically stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were stable with a slight decline; in Shandong, prices were basically stable. [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction of black commodities in 2026 lies in the game between the slow recovery of steel demand and the relatively loose supply of furnace materials. Demand is a slow - changing variable, and its growth mainly relies on manufacturing exports. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the pattern next year is likely a process of low - cost replacing high - cost. The supply rhythm of coking coal is determined by policy changes, and macro variables may amplify market sentiment and price fluctuations [3]. - In 2026, steel demand may increase slightly by 1.5%. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign demand is expected to increase. Supply will follow the demand recovery. The steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [33][86][87]. - Iron ore will continue its capacity expansion process. The current high valuation may face challenges in the first half of next year. The supply increment of mainstream mines will be significant, but there are uncertainties in the capacity - climbing rhythm. The global iron ore demand may increase slightly, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [6][138]. - The coal - coke market may show a tight - balance pattern. The supply of coking coal will show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, and imports may impact the domestic market. Coke production will be driven by cost and demand [7][191]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets will continue the situation of over - capacity. The price is mainly determined by cost differences in the short - term and supply - demand in the long - term. The price is expected to fluctuate with cost support and high - inventory suppression [283][285]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Black Commodity Price Trend Review - The black commodity market in 2025 showed the characteristics of "weak supply and demand of steel, and cost first weak then strong". The iron ore had a 2% increase, while other varieties had a decline of 4% - 14%. The market can be divided into four stages: narrow - range oscillation from January to February, overall weakness from March to May, V - shaped reversal from June to July, and oscillation from August to November [10]. 3.2 2025 Steel Demand Calibration - Different institutions' data on molten iron and scrap steel consumption in 2025 showed large differences. Using the iron ore balance sheet to calculate molten iron production as the benchmark, the total demand in 2025 was basically the same as last year [15][27][30]. 3.3 2026 Steel Operation Logic 3.3.1 Demand Side - In 2026, steel demand may increase by 1.5%. Domestic demand: infrastructure offsets the decline of real estate, and the steel consumption is controllable. Real estate's steel - consumption ratio has narrowed significantly. Infrastructure investment structure is transforming, and the steel - consumption growth rate may decline to about 5%. Manufacturing: domestic consumption may improve, and foreign demand will increase through exports. Steel exports will remain high [33]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - Globally, steel production is expected to grow by 2% in 2026. In China, supply is expected to increase by 1.4% following the demand recovery, and the steel variety structure reflects the economic transformation [71][78]. 3.3.3 Steel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase by 1.6%, and exports will remain high. Supply is expected to increase by 1.5%, with molten iron having a larger supply increase than scrap steel [83][84][85]. 3.3.4 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the core contradiction of steel is between the slow recovery of demand and the cost loosening of furnace materials. Steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The investment strategy is to go long near the iron ore cost line and go short when the electric - arc furnace is profitable during peak - electricity periods [86][87][88]. 3.4 2026 Iron Ore Operation Logic 3.4.1 Supply - Mainstream mines: the four major mines will contribute the main supply increment in 2026. Fortescue contributed the main increment in 2025. The production of each mine has different performances, and new projects are in progress [90][97][110]. - Non - mainstream and domestic mines: overseas non - mainstream mines' production is expected to increase by about 25 million tons in 2026. Domestic mines' production is expected to be basically the same as in 2025. There is a risk that the capacity - climbing rhythm of some projects may be lower than expected [126][130][133]. 3.4.2 Demand and Supply - Demand Balance - Global iron ore demand is expected to increase slightly in 2026, but the oversupply situation will be more obvious, with a supply - demand difference of over 20 million tons [134][136]. 3.4.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Iron ore will continue capacity expansion in 2026. The high valuation may face challenges in the first half of the year, but macro factors will support the valuation. The price trend may repeat the V - shaped reversal of this year [138]. 3.5 2026 Coal - Coke Operation Logic 3.5.1 Supply Outlook - Domestic: coking coal production in 2026 is expected to show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, with a year - on - year micro - increase of 0.5% [148]. - Overseas: Mongolian and Russian coal may impact the domestic market. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase, but there is a risk of expectation difference. Russian coal imports are restricted by factors such as transportation capacity and cost [152][156][166]. 3.5.2 Coke - Backward coke - oven capacities will be phased out. The coke market will be driven by cost and demand, and the supply - demand will continue the tight - balance situation [175][176]. 3.5.3 Demand Outlook - In 2026, the demand for coal - coke will be supported by molten iron production. The game between weak reality and strong expectation and the inflection point of the replenishment cycle will increase price volatility [183]. 3.5.4 2026 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand game of coal - coke will enter a normal stage in 2026. The domestic coking coal supply will be adjusted by policy, and imports will be an important factor [187]. 3.5.5 2026 Coal - Coke Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The coal - coke price bottom may have been tested in 2025. The market will show a tight - balance pattern, with both total and structural contradictions. The investment should focus on the rhythm [191]. 3.6 2026 Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Operation Logic 3.6.1 2025 Manganese - Silicon Price Trend Review - The manganese - silicon market in 2025 showed a V - shaped trend, with four stages: rising and then falling in the first stage, oscillating downward in the second stage, rising steadily in the third stage, and oscillating in the fourth stage [193]. 3.6.2 2025 Silicon - Iron Price Trend Review - The silicon - iron market in 2025 had a downward - moving price center, with three stages: falling in the first stage, rising and then falling in the second stage, and oscillating in the third stage [201]. 3.6.3 Supply Side - Manganese - silicon: the supply is in an over - capacity situation. The production is concentrated in the north, and the south is under operating pressure. The future capacity will continue to gather in the main production areas [208][209][221]. - Silicon - iron: the capacity expansion rate has slowed down, but there is still over - capacity. The production is concentrated in the northwest, and the elimination and replacement of backward capacity will be the mainstream [222][223][238]. 3.6.4 Demand Side - The demand for ferroalloys is mainly driven by steel production. In 2026, steel production is expected to increase, and the demand for ferroalloys will be slightly boosted. The export of ferroalloys is under pressure [239][240][252]. 3.6.5 Cost and Inventory - Cost: the cost of manganese - silicon is mainly affected by manganese ore, electricity, and chemical coke prices. The cost of silicon - iron first decreases and then increases [254][271][272]. - Inventory: the manganese - silicon inventory is high, and the inventory inflection point may be postponed. The silicon - iron inventory is relatively healthy [274]. 3.6.6 2025 Annual Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply of ferroalloys is affected by profit and policy. The demand is mainly determined by steel production. In 2026, the supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will continue to be affected by over - capacity [277][278][280]. 3.6.7 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the price of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will follow the logic of "short - term cost determines the direction, long - term supply - demand determines the center". The investment strategy is to focus on cost and supply - demand changes, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [282][283][285].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global sugar market supply - demand fundamentals are bearish, with low - priced corn ethanol dragging down the valuation, and the New York raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The supply shortage in the domestic sugar market will narrow, the out - of - quota import window will open deeply, and the domestic market pricing is expected to be anchored to domestic production costs. The market will trade around the expectations of the total volume and rhythm of regular imports in the long term. The expected fluctuation range of Guangxi white sugar spot prices in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [2][42]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Sugar Futures Trend Review - The sugar futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling in 2025. From January to March, the domestic sugar market was led by New York raw sugar and futures led the spot, with prices generally rising. From April, the New York raw sugar price dropped significantly from its high, pulling down domestic prices. From mid - May, the out - of - quota import cost fell below the spot price, pressing down the futures price. In October, the out - of - quota import cost dropped below the futures price, lowering the overall domestic valuation. In 2025, the domestic market generally had a positive basis, with the out - of - quota import cost fluctuating between 5,000 - 7,300 yuan/ton, the futures index between 5,200 - 6,200 yuan/ton, and the white sugar spot (Nanning) between 5,400 - 6,250 yuan/ton [5]. - The price trend was divided into three stages: from January to March, India's unexpected production cut and low precipitation in Brazil led to a surge in New York raw sugar; from April to June, a sharp drop in crude oil prices and accelerated sugar - cane crushing in Brazil caused the New York raw sugar to fall from its high; from July to December, with Brazil's output increasing and India's expected significant production increase, the New York raw sugar was weak at a low level, and the Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated downward [8]. 2. 2026 Sugar Futures Outlook: Policy Support 2.1 International Market: Bearish Fundamentals, Corn Ethanol Dragging Down Valuation - **International Market Shifting from Supply Shortage to Surplus**: The 24/25 sugar - crushing season had a global sugar supply shortage, with different institutions estimating shortages ranging from 292 million tons to 700 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market is expected to have a surplus, with estimates of surplus ranging from 100 million tons to 1.14 billion tons [9]. - **Slight Increase in Brazil's Output**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's output decreased due to drought. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, although the sugar - cane crushing volume is expected to decline slightly, the sugar - making cane ratio (MIX) has increased, and the output is expected to increase by 90 million tons to 4.501 billion tons [11]. - **India's Output Recovering**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar output decreased more than expected. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, due to favorable monsoon precipitation in 2024 and 2025 and increasing sugar - cane purchase prices, different institutions expect India's sugar output to increase by 480 million tons to 700 million tons [16]. - **Thailand's Output Increasing and EU's Output Decreasing**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's sugar output is expected to increase due to the recovery of sugar - cane production and higher purchase prices. The EU's output is expected to decline due to reduced planting returns and drought [23]. - **Low - priced Corn Ethanol Dragging Down Raw Sugar Valuation**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's corn ethanol output is expected to increase by 21% year - on - year. India's ethanol sugar consumption is expected to remain flat, and the increase in ethanol demand is replaced by other competitors [26][27]. 2.2 Domestic Market: The Focus of Trading is the Total Import Volume and Structure - **Continued Increase in Domestic Output but a Still Large Supply Gap**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's sugar output increased, and supply and demand were basically balanced. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the output is expected to remain high, with a slight supply surplus and a cumulative inventory expectation [30][31]. - **Probable Increase in Domestic Sugar Production Costs**: In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production cost decreased. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, if the sugar - cane purchase price remains unchanged, the production cost is likely to increase by 100 - 400 yuan/ton [34]. - **The Way to Fill the Supply Gap Determines the Pricing Anchor**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the domestic sugar supply shortage is expected to narrow to 400 million tons. The way to fill the gap determines the pricing anchor. The actual total import volume and rhythm will be the key indicators to observe import policy orientation [38]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - **Conclusion**: Internationally, increased production and inventory accumulation will put pressure on the New York raw sugar price. Domestically, the total import volume and structure remain the core of trading. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, if imports are strictly controlled, domestic market pricing will be anchored to domestic production costs [41]. - **Investment Outlook**: In 2026, the global sugar market is bearish, and the New York raw sugar price is expected to be weak. The domestic market supply shortage will narrow, and the domestic market pricing is expected to be anchored to domestic production costs. The expected fluctuation range of Guangxi white sugar spot prices in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton [42].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In normal circumstances, the price of soybean meal futures is expected to rise steadily in 2026. If there is adverse weather, the price may enter an upward cycle [2]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily due to the tight supply - demand balance sheet. The Brazilian soybean premium is neutral, and the price of soybean meal is affected by US soybean prices, Brazilian premiums, and weather factors [2][118][119]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. 2025 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - From January to April 8, 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose. The reasons included the bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [6]. - From April 9 to November 28, 2025, the price entered an "interval operation" pattern, mainly trading "Sino - US trade sentiment", with five trading bands affected by trade news and market sentiment [7]. 2. 2026 Soybean Meal Futures Price Main Influencing Factors Analysis 2.1 Raw Material Soybean Supply and Demand: Tight US Supply, Neutral South American Supply - **US Soybean Balance Sheet: Tight Supply - Demand in the Inventory Reduction Cycle** - In 2025/26, US soybean supply decreased due to reduced planting, while demand decreased due to trade frictions. Supply decline was greater than demand, leading to a tight balance sheet [15]. - In 2026/27, the US soybean balance sheet is expected to remain tight. Planting area may increase slightly, supply and demand will both expand, but supply growth will be lower than demand, and ending stocks will decline [29][30]. - **South American Soybean Balance Sheet: Neutral, First Contracting, Then Loosening** - In 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet slightly contracted, and it is expected to be loose in 2026/27. The Argentine balance sheet slightly contracted in 2025/26 and is expected to be slightly loose in 2026/27 [32][33][48]. - **Weather's Impact on the Balance Sheet** - Abnormal weather can lead to a tight balance sheet and price increases. Currently, La Nina weather is expected to last until February 2026 and turn ENSO neutral from January to March 2026, which may affect South American soybean production [51]. 2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Import Profits - In 2025, China's soybean imports and soybean meal production were high, but the operating rate was low due to low profits and temporary shortages. In 2026, soybean imports may be stable or slightly decrease due to poor import profits, which may affect soybean meal supply [55][73]. 2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Stable or Slightly Decreasing due to Declining Breeding Profits - In 2025, soybean meal demand was good, with stable growth in livestock and poultry breeding, increased feed production, and a rising proportion of soybean meal addition. In 2026, demand may be stable or slightly decrease due to declining breeding profits, a possible decline in the scale of livestock and poultry breeding, and a slight decrease in the proportion of soybean meal use [96][97]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of US soybeans is expected to rise steadily, the Brazilian soybean premium is neutral. In normal weather, the balance sheets of Brazil and Argentina have minor contradictions. Adverse weather may tighten the balance sheets and drive up prices. Domestic soybean meal supply and demand may slightly contract, and the spot price may be slightly stronger [118][119][120][121][122]. - Investment strategy: Focus on the "buying on dips and trading in bands" strategy. Pay attention to possible driving events such as trade policies, adverse weather, and USDA reports [123].