期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 16 日 铝：高位震荡 氧化铝：继续磨底 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21920 | -250 | -355 | 290 | 1290 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21865 | ー | । | ー | । | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2875 | 0 | -12 | 32 | 253 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 336454 | 107252 | 84850 | 157529 | 201880 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 294373 | -20430 | 61234 | 66243 | 57086 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The price of US soybeans slightly declined, and DCE soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot price of DCE soybeans is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price is adjusting and fluctuating [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2601 closed at 4130 yuan/ton during the day session, down 21 yuan (-0.51%), and 4084 yuan/ton during the night session, down 58 yuan (-1.40%) - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2758 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.54%), and 2748 yuan/ton during the night session, down 14 yuan (-0.51%) - CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1073 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents (-0.30%) - CBOT soybean meal 01 closed at 303.9 dollars/short - ton, up 1.9 dollars (+0.63%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal is 3060 - 3160 yuan/ton. The basis for different months has different changes compared to the previous day - In East China, the price is 3050 - 3130 yuan/ton, and the basis for different months also has corresponding changes - In South China, the price is 3100 - 3190 yuan/ton, with specific basis changes for different periods [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.15 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 7.6 million tons on the day before the previous trading day. The inventory of the week before the previous trading day was 104.55 million tons, and the inventory of the previous trading week is not available [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 15, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. The market is worried about the slow export speed of US soybeans, and the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans has led to continued selling by traders - Private exporters reported selling 13.6 million tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season. Since October 30, the total sales of US soybeans to China confirmed by the USDA through daily export bulletins have reached 351.6 million tons - The NOPA's member companies crushed 216.04 million bushels of soybeans in November, a 5.1% decrease from the record - high in October but an 11.83% increase from the same period last year, setting a new high for the same period - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 97% complete [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main - contract futures prices during the day session on the report day [3]

铂：内盘领涨，料继续突破 2025 年 12 月 16 日 钯：ETF 增持边际上扬，继续冲击前高 资料来源：同花顺，Wind，彭博，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 482. 40 | | 6. 71% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 466. 85 | | 4. 78% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 1815. 90 | | 2. 93% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 1785. 30 | | 2. 47% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 407. 60 | | 4.66% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 368. 00 | | 0. 82% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | 1.622.00 | | 4. 81% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1,572. 50 | | 5.51% | ...

| | | 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 项 目 | | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 | 5-B:汇总价格:内 | | 蒙 | 5220 | +100.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅 锰:FeMn6 | 5S i1 7:内 蒙 | | | 5540 | +20.0 | 元/吨 | | | 锰 矿:M n4 4块 | | | | 43.0 | - | 元/吨 度 | | | 兰 炭:小 料:神 | 木 | | | 800 | -20.0 | 元/吨 | | | 期现价差 | 硅 铁 （现 | 货-0 | 3期 货） | -298 | +52 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰 硅 （现 | 货-0 | 3期 货） | -218 | - 8 | 元/吨 | | 价 差 | 近远月价差 | 硅 | 铁2603-2605 | | 4 0 | - 2 | 元/吨 | | | | ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 棕榈油：减产未明确，偏弱震荡运行 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 期货部分：价格指报告日前一交易日收盘价：涨跌幅（除外盘）以收盘价计算，外盘以收盘价与其前一日结算价计算。基差部分：选取 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 AmSpec：马来西亚12月1-15日棕榈油出口量为587657吨，较上月同期出口的702692吨减少16.37%。 ITS：马来西亚 12 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 613172 吨，较上月同期出口的 728995 吨减少 15.89%。 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,558 | -0.58% | 8,436 | -1.43% | | | 豆油主力 ...

Group 1 - Report Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to repeated news of production resumption [1] - The Australian government has increased the household energy storage subsidy budget from 23 billion Australian dollars (about 10.776 billion RMB) to 72 billion Australian dollars (about 33.73 billion RMB), aiming to help over 2 million people install household energy storage by 2030 and achieve about 40GWh of new installed capacity on the user - side [3] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 2 - Industry - related Data Futures Market - For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 99,100 yuan, the trading volume is 33,951, and the open interest is 98,299 [1] - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 101,060 yuan, the trading volume is 699,601, and the open interest is 662,185 [1] - The warehouse receipt volume is 15,260 lots [1] Basis - The basis of spot - 2601 is - 3,950 yuan, spot - 2605 is - 5,910 yuan, and 2601 - 2605 is - 1,960 yuan [1] Raw Materials - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,223 yuan, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,620 yuan [1] Lithium Salts - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 95,150 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,650 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 88,300 yuan [1] Other Products - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,680 yuan, lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) is 38,120 yuan, and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) is 34,810 yuan [1] Group 3 - Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 95,238 yuan/ton, with an increase of 657 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 95,150 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,650 yuan/ton, both increasing by 650 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term, both short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are in low - level oscillations, and there is pressure in the medium - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber** - Futures prices: Short - fiber 2601 was 6110 (up 22 from the previous day), short - fiber 2602 was 6098 (up 24), and short - fiber 2603 was 6090 (down 30) [1]. - Spread: PF01 - 02 was 12 (down 2), PF02 - 03 was 8 (change from - 46), and PF main - contract basis was 167 (down 14) [1]. - Position and volume: The main - contract position was 200193 (down 46764), and the main - contract volume was 213686 (up 3867) [1]. - Spot price and sales rate: The East China spot price was 6265 (up 10), and the sales - to - production ratio was 79% (up 23%) [1]. - **Bottle - chip** - Futures prices: Bottle - chip 2601 was 5552 (up 22), bottle - chip 2602 was 5654 (up 26), and bottle - chip 2603 was 5644 (up 28) [1]. - Spread: PR01 - 02 was - 102 (down 4), PR02 - 03 was 10 (down 2), and PR main - contract basis was 26 (down 18) [1]. - Position and volume: The main - contract position was 36148 (down 533), and the main - contract volume was 34886 (down 19243) [1]. - Spot prices: The East China spot price was 5670 (up 10), and the South China spot price was 5720 (up 20) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber** - Futures prices fluctuated up and then down. Factory quotes were stable, with the mainstream quote for semi - dull 1.4D in the range of 6400 - 6500. The mainstream negotiation price was in the range of 6150 - 6400. The average sales - to - production ratio was 79% [1]. - **Bottle - chip** - Upstream raw material futures oscillated and rebounded. Factory quotes were mostly stable, with some up 20 - 50 yuan and some down 50 yuan. The market transaction was average, with 12 - 2 month orders mostly traded at 5660 - 5700 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip was - 1, indicating the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including market trends, fundamental data, and trading suggestions for each product [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and market sentiment when making investment decisions in the futures market. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a high - level volatile market with seasonal weakening demand but tight supply; PTA is in a high - level volatile market; MEG has short - term support below due to unplanned production cuts improving inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6784, up 0.38%; PTA主力4696, up 0.47%; MEG主力3651, up 0.66%. PX CFR China was at 832.67 dollars/ton yesterday, up 2 dollars compared to the previous day [5]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, avoid chasing high prices and operate in the range of 6550 - 7000. Exit the 5 - 9 positive spread and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA/BZ. For PTA, operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 and take similar exit actions. For MEG, do not chase short on the 01 contract [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - **Market Trends**: Rubber is in a volatile operation [2][14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The rubber主力05合约日盘收盘价 was 15,200 yuan/ton yesterday, down 30 yuan; the night - time closing price was 15,230 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume increased by 117,063 hands [14]. - **Industry News**: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 49.89 million tons, a 2.08% increase from the previous period [15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: The oscillation center of synthetic rubber is moving up [2][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber主力02 contract was 10,720 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,953 hands [17]. - **Industry News**: As of December 10, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,000 tons, a 1.18% decrease from the previous period. The butadiene inventory in East China ports decreased by 5,200 tons [18][20]. 3.4 LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The upside space of LLDPE is limited, and the basis has weakened again [2][21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 6557, up 1.09%. The 01 - contract basis was - 57, compared to 4 the previous day [21]. - **Market Situation**: The raw material crude oil price is oscillating, the monomer segment is weakly stable, and the downstream demand is weakening. The supply pressure in the medium - term needs attention [22]. 3.5 PP - **Market Trends**: The trading volume of PP has improved periodically, but the basis is still weak [2][23]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, up 2.04%. The 01 - contract basis was - 154, compared to - 49 the previous day [23]. - **Market Situation**: The cost - end support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: Caustic soda still faces pressure in the later stage [26]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 01 contract was 2163, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 710, and the basis was 56 [27]. - **Market Situation**: Although the futures price rebounded on Friday night, the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. The demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival [28]. 3.7 Pulp - **Market Trends**: Pulp is in a wide - range volatile state [2][31]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the pulp主力05 contract was 5572 yuan/ton yesterday, up 38 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 67,332 hands [33]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was narrowly volatile, the spot price was stable, and the actual market transactions were limited. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak [34]. 3.8 Glass - **Market Trends**: The price of glass raw sheets is stable [2][38]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of FG601 was 950, up 0.11%. The 01 - contract basis was 120, compared to 135 the previous day [37]. - **Market Situation**: The price of float glass fluctuated, and the trading atmosphere in most regions was average. The impact of snowfall in the north affected shipments [37]. 3.9 Methanol - **Market Trends**: Methanol is in short - term volatile operation [2][39]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the methanol主力05 contract was 2124 yuan/ton yesterday, up 57 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 354,221 hands [40]. - **Market Situation**: The methanol port inventory has been decreasing, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The macro - environment provides some support [42]. 3.10 Urea - **Market Trends**: Urea is under oscillating pressure [2][44]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the urea主力01 contract was 1629 yuan/ton yesterday, up 4 yuan. The trading volume increased by 28,598 hands [45]. - **Market Situation**: The short - term driving force is neutral, the spot trading has weakened, and the futures price is expected to be under oscillating pressure. The fundamentals have improved, but the driving force needs further observation [46][47]. 3.11 Styrene - **Market Trends**: Styrene is in short - term oscillation [2][48]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of styrene2512 was 6491, down 9; styrene2601 was 6442, down 63 [48]. - **Market Situation**: The pure benzene market is oscillating, the downstream of styrene is in a high - inventory and medium - profit pattern, and the overall supply pressure is not large [49]. 3.12 Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market of soda ash has little change [2][51]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of SA2601 was 1123, up 1.63%. The 01 - contract basis was 77, compared to 107 the previous day [52]. - **Market Situation**: The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is flat, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **Market Trends**: LPG is in short - term oscillation with a downward trend; propylene is in short - term narrow - range adjustment [2][55][56]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PG2601 was 4181, up 2.73%; PL2601 was 5949, down 0.20% [56]. - **Market Situation**: The price of CP paper goods decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [61][62]. 3.14 PVC - **Market Trends**: PVC is in low - level oscillation [2][66]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 01 contract was 4315, the spot price in East China was 4330, and the basis was 15 [64]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price of PVC increased slightly. Although the futures price rebounded, the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [64][65]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: The short - term trend of fuel oil has weakened, and the short - term volatility has increased; a retracement has occurred in low - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has narrowed [2][67]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of FU2601 was 2417 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; LU2601 was 2988 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [67]. - **Market Situation**: The trading volume and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and the price spreads have also fluctuated [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: The container shipping index (European line) is in an oscillating market [2][69]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of EC2512 was 1649.8, down 0.09%; EC2602 was 1746.0, up 3.30% [69]. - **Market Situation**: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have changed, and the shipping prices of different carriers vary [69]. 3.17 Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Market Trends**: Short - fiber and bottle chips are in short - term low - level oscillation with medium - term pressure [2][78]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of short - fiber2601 was 6110, up 22; bottle chips2601 was 5552, up 22 [78]. - **Market Situation**: The short - fiber futures rose and then fell, and the sales improved; the price of bottle chips factories was mostly stable, and the market transactions were average [78][79]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trends**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for offset printing paper [2][81]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of OP2602.SHF was 3994, and the 2 - 3 spread was - 16 [81]. - **Market Situation**: The price of double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets was stable, the market demand was weak, and the trading atmosphere was general [82][84]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - **Market Trends**: Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation [2][86]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of BZ2603 was 5448, up 28. The pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 260,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [86]. - **Market Situation**: The pure benzene inventory in ports has increased, the trading volume in Shandong has decreased, and the price has declined slightly [87].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that PP will continue to perform weakly. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, the upstream has locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales, so the willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, with a daily increase of 2.04%. The trading volume was 806,493, and the open interest changed by 193,360. The 01 - contract basis was - 154 (compared to - 49 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 76 (compared to - 39 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6040 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, and 6230 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market rebounded slightly, some coal - chemical plant prices were raised, and the cost support for goods strengthened. Some wire drawing offers from traders increased slightly, while most non - standard prices remained stable. The daily trading volume improved partially [1]. - Some PDH devices are planned to shut down in January, but the scale is not large for now. The year - end demand lacks elasticity, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited under the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The PP US dollar market prices partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement remains based on rigid demand with difficult trading improvement [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support for the PP cost side. Sentiment was slightly repaired on Friday night due to approaching position limits and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's mention of resisting "involution - style" competition [2]. - **Supply**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game between existing supply and demand [2]. - **Demand**: Downstream new orders are weakening, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, resulting in weak demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3].

Report Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising [2] Core Viewpoints - The report provides detailed fundamental data for industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, spot premiums and discounts, prices, profits, and inventory levels. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about the Yunnan electricity price bidding results [2]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2605 closing price is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan from T - 1, 325 yuan from T - 5, and 795 yuan from T - 22. PS2605 closing price is 58,030 yuan/ton, up 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Basis and Spot Premiums/Discounts**: Industrial silicon spot premiums are positive for different grades, while polysilicon spot premium (against N - type recycled material) is - 6030 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan from T - 1 and 3,485 yuan from T - 5. [2] - **Prices and Profits**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22. Silicon plant profits are negative for Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5, and 0.7 yuan from T - 22. [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 56.1 million tons, with an increase of 0.3 million tons from T - 5 and 1.5 million tons from T - 22. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 29.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and 2.6 million tons from T - 22. [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with most remaining stable. [2] - **Polysilicon - related Products**: The prices of polysilicon - N - type recycled material, trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given, along with their price changes over different time periods. [2] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC is 13600 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is 1788 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 21600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from T - 1. [2] Macro and Industry News - Kunming Power Exchange Center announced the Yunnan electricity price bidding results for 2026. 1295 out of 1323 new - energy projects won the bid, with the clearing mechanism price for photovoltaic projects at 0.329 yuan/kWh and for wind power projects at 0.335 yuan/kWh. [2] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish. [4]