Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of rebar and hot-rolled coil, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength analysis [1][3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing low-level fluctuations due to market information disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 decreased by 0.87% and 0.83% respectively. The trading volume of RB2605 was 974,336 lots, and the position increased by 4,982 lots. The trading volume of HC2605 was 488,186 lots, and the position increased by 42,139 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in most regions remained stable or decreased slightly. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 and HC2605 increased by 9 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between different contracts also showed certain changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [1] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 11th, the production of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.6 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 22.73 tons. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 24.31 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 3.26 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 33.5 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 13.89 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 2.89 tons, and the total decreased by 24.45 tons [1][3] - In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons or 2.5% from the previous month. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [3] - In October 2025, the national production of crude steel was 72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The daily production was 2.3226 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2%. The production of pig iron was 65.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%. The daily production was 2.1145 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4%. The production of steel was 118.64 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. The daily production was 3.8271 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.6% [3] - According to customs statistics, in October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2% from the previous month. The average price was $1,593.0 per ton, a decrease of $31.1 per ton or 1.9% from the previous month [3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3][4]

【趋势强度】 2025 年 12 月 15 日 短纤：中期有压力，多 TA 空 PF 持有 20251215 瓶片：中期有压力，多 TA 空 PR 持有 20251215 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | ୧088 | 6128 | -40 | PF01-02 | 14 | 6 | 8 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6074 | 6122 | -48 | PF02-03 | 0 | ব | T | | | 短纤2603 | 6074 | 6118 | -44 | PF主力基差 | 181 | 138 | 43 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 246957 | 177279 | 69678 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 255 | 6. 260 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 209819 昨日 | 200605 前 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20251215 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.534 | 5. 586 | -52 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5,540 | 5.520 | +20 | | | | 成交量(手) | 482, 936 | 833.491 | -350, 555 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 204. 480 | 204. 699 | -219 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 198, 979 | 198, 115 | +864 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18, 685 | -13, 750 | -4.935 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 66 | 14 | +52 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -884 | -936 | +52 | | | 月差 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The destocking of lithium carbonate continues, but spot trading is weak, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract is 95,920 yuan, down 1,060 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 2605 contract is 97,720 yuan, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the two contracts have different degrees of change. The warehouse receipt volume is 15,050 lots, an increase of 300 lots from the previous day [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 is -1,420 yuan, the basis of spot - 2605 is -3,220 yuan, the basis of 2601 - 2605 is -1,800 yuan. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,500 yuan, and the difference between spot and CIF is 18,471 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,220 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,605 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,500 yuan, up 1,000 yuan from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,000 yuan, up 1,000 yuan from the previous day. The prices of other lithium salts and related products also have different degrees of change [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 94,581 yuan/ton, up 1,022 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton [2] - As of December 12th, the inventory of lithium ore spot in ports and warehouses of 30 sample lithium ore traders is 165,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week, and the salable inventory is 114,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, which is in a neutral state [3]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 生猪：冬至需求预期落地，仓单增量 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11430 | | 0 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11950 | | 50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12210 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11485 | | 45 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11325 | | 105 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | 80 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 甲醇：震荡反弹 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,067 | 2,074 | - 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,057 | 2,077 | -20 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 1,012,146 | 975,203 | 36943 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 482,389 | 558,910 | -76521 | | 期货市场 | | 仓单 ...

沥青：委内局势再升温， 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,962 | 0.07% | 2,963 | 0.03% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,980 | 0.24% | 2,981 | 0.03% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2602 | 手 | 311,581 | 55,579 | 214,417 | 6,116 | | | BU2603 | 手 | 89,676 | 18,263 | 95,747 | 1,889 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54600 | 47920 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2]. - In the US solar market, there was a significant increase in new PV installations in Q3 2025, but issues like component shortages and labor shortages limited market expansion [2]. - The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2601 closing price is 8,435 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan from T - 5 and 760 yuan from T - 22 [2]. - Si2601 trading volume is 228,177 lots, with a decrease compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [2]. - Si2601 open interest is 110,824 lots, down significantly from T - 5 and T - 22 [2]. - PS2605 closing price is 57,190 yuan/ton, up 1,680 yuan from T - 5 [2]. - PS2605 trading volume is 314,687 lots, showing an increase from T - 5 [2]. - PS2605 open interest is 126,436 lots, up 28,445 lots from T - 5 [2]. Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium against different benchmarks shows various changes over different time periods [2]. - Polysilicon's spot premium against N - type recycled material is - 3765 yuan/ton [2]. Prices - Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 8750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from T - 5 [2]. - Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, remaining stable [2]. - Polysilicon - N - type recycled material price is 52300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 22 [2]. Profits - Silicon factory profit for Xinjiang new - standard 553 is - 2984.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [2]. - Silicon factory profit for Yunnan new - standard 553 is - 4096 yuan/ton, also showing a decline [2]. - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.6 yuan from T - 5 [2]. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 56.1 tons, up 0.3 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Industrial silicon enterprise inventory is 18.7 tons, up 0.45 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Industrial silicon industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 74.8 tons, up 0.75 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Industrial silicon futures warehouse - receipt inventory is 4.3 tons, up 0.7 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Polysilicon factory inventory is 29.3 tons, up 0.2 tons from T - 5 [2]. Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan show different trends, with Yunnan's price down 20 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. - Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia have different changes, with Ningxia's price up 60 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. - Petroleum coke prices in Maoming and Yangzi have some changes, with Yangzi's price up 100 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. - Electrode prices remain stable [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In Q3 2025, the US added 11.7GW of new PV installations, a 20% year - on - year and 49% quarter - on - quarter increase [2]. - By Q3 2025, solar energy accounted for 58% of the US grid's new power - generation capacity, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 30GW [2]. - Issues such as PV component shortages, delivery delays, and labor shortages in Q3 2025 restricted market expansion [2]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. - The trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, also indicating a neutral view [4].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 LPG：短期震荡，趋势承压 丙烯：短期窄幅调整 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2601 | 4,070 | -3.55% | 4,154 | 2.06% | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 3,986 | -3.79% | 4,037 | 1.28% | | | PL2601 | 5,961 | 0.18% | 6,004 | 0.72% | | | PL2602 | 5,730 | -0.95% | 5,821 | 1.59% | | | PL2603 | 5,675 | -1.29% | 5,772 | 1.71% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 96,238 | 39211 | 34,725 | -6179 | | 持仓&成交 | P ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 合成橡胶：震荡中枢上移 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 期货研究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 10,720 | 10,710 | 10 -31953 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 123,845 | 155,798 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 89,834 | 86,990 | 2844 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 661,588 | 831,987 | -170399 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -70 | -60 | -10 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | （民营） | -110 | -100 | -10 | | 现 ...