张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 28 日 工业硅：弱势震荡格局 多晶硅：市场情绪继续降温 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,525 376,195 | 10 -74,095 | 135 -185,600 | -390 -307,519 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | | | | -3,510 | | | | | 275,558 | -6,281 | -4,310 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | 48,690 | -2,295 | -3,185 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 502,410 | 236,590 | -202,521 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 154,53 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for p-xylene (PX) are short-term bullish with a long/short spread strategy, for purified terephthalic acid (PTA) are long/short spread strategy and long PTA short PX, and for monoethylene glycol (MEG) are long/short spread strategy and short at high prices [7][8] Group 2: Core Views - The report believes that the supply and demand of p-xylene will be in a tight balance, PTA will be driven by the seasonal peak demand, and MEG will see a long/short spread in the month and a high-level shock in the single side [1] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures closed at 6940, 4824, 4481, 6572, and 479.7 respectively yesterday, with changes of -0.77%, -0.94%, -0.20%, -0.76%, and -3.31% [2] - The PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 month spreads closed at 86, -40, -46, -68, and -7.3 respectively yesterday, with changes of 6, 0, 4, 22, and 0 [2] Spot - PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent closed at 854.17, 4837, 4550, 600, and 67.44 respectively yesterday, with changes of -9.83, -28, -2, 7.5, and -0.79 [2] - The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread closed at 270.33, 248.5, 102.62, -88.83, and -6.01 respectively yesterday, with changes of 1.16, 13.1, 16.36, -47.62, and 0 [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics Summary - An issue occurred in a reforming unit of a factory in East China, and whether the reforming and supporting PX units will stop for maintenance needs further follow - up [2] - On August 27, the PX price dropped, and the PX - naphtha spread continued to narrow [3][5] - On August 27, the PTA futures fluctuated and declined, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average [5] - A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol unit in Shanxi is restarting, and a cracking unit in Singapore had an accident during maintenance [5] - On August 27, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber and polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [5][6] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish trend [7] Group 6: Views and Suggestions PX - Short - term shock is bullish, do not chase long on a single side, focus on the 11 - 1 long/short spread position, and long PTA short PX (November contract) [7] PTA - Do not chase long on a single side, hold the basis and month - spread long/short spread, and long PTA short PX (November contract) [7] MEG - 9 - 1 long/short spread, there is significant pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract, hedge at high prices [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index futures still have the possibility of stabilizing and rebounding [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Index Futures Data Tracking - On August 27, all the current-month contracts of the four major index futures declined. IF dropped 1.71%, IH dropped 1.84%, IC dropped 1.51%, and IM dropped 2.08% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 43,644 lots, IH increased by 16,891 lots, IC increased by 57,059 lots, and IM increased by 92,377 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 13,045 lots, IH increased by 3,677 lots, IC increased by 24,398 lots, and IM increased by 17,455 lots [2] 3.2. Index Futures Member Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 member institutions in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different changes. For example, in IF2509, the long positions increased by 4,337 lots, and the short positions increased by 3,404 lots [5] 3.3. Trend Strength and Important Drivers - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The range of trend strength values is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [6] - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption next month, and the relevant policy document on promoting service exports will be publicly issued soon. In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months. High-tech manufacturing profits turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase [6] - The three major A-share indexes rose and then fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording its largest decline in nearly five months. The market's full-day trading volume was 3.2 trillion yuan, ranking second in history [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Ratings**: PTA (Seasonal demand peak driving, strong - side oscillatory market); PX (Short - term oscillatory and strong - side, focus on positive spreads) [2][8] - **Neutral Ratings**: Rubber (Oscillatory operation); Synthetic rubber (Fundamentals are neutral, follow the macro - environment); LLDPE (Range - bound oscillation); PP (Medium - term oscillatory market); LPG (Crude oil cost rebounds); Propylene (Supply - demand tightens, spot price rises); Fuel oil (Broad - based oscillation, short - term price weakness); Low - sulfur fuel oil (Night session rebounds, high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market stabilizes temporarily) [2][10][16] - **Negative Ratings**: Asphalt (Decline following oil prices); Methanol (Short - term weakness, medium - term oscillatory pattern); Urea (Oscillatory and under pressure); Styrene (Medium - term bearish); Soda ash (Spot market with little change); PVC (Trend under pressure); Container shipping index (European route) (May continue weak - side oscillation) [2][19][55] Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures. For each product, it combines fundamental data, market news, and trend strength to give investment suggestions. Market factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and external policy impacts are considered [2][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term oscillatory and strong - side, with high profits and increased production enthusiasm. There are some uncertainties in supply due to equipment issues, and demand is gradually recovering. Suggestions include positive spreads and a strategy of long PTA and short PX [4][8] - **PTA**: Driven by seasonal demand, it is in a strong - side oscillatory market. Supply is affected by new device launches and maintenance, and demand is improving. Hold positive spreads and consider long PTA and short PX [8] - **MEG**: 9 - 1 positive spreads are recommended. There is pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract. Port inventory is decreasing, but there is supply pressure in the future [9] 2. Rubber - Oscillatory operation. The EU's anti - dumping investigation affects exports, and there is a differentiation in domestic demand. The overall inventory may increase, and production may decline [10][13][14] 3. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamentals are neutral, following the macro - environment. The inventory of butadiene in ports has decreased, and the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene has increased. In the medium - term, it is in a range - bound oscillation [16][17][18] 4. Asphalt - Decline following oil prices. The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, and the volume of equipment maintenance has increased. The shipment volume in some regions has changed [20][33] 5. LLDPE - Range - bound oscillation. Demand is improving due to the approaching peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry. Supply pressure may be alleviated in September. Inventory is relatively low, so it may remain range - bound in the medium - term [35][36] 6. PP - Medium - term oscillatory market. Short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. However, supply pressure will increase in the future, and there is uncertainty in the cost [39][40] 7. Caustic Soda - Not advisable to chase short positions, and be bullish in the fourth quarter. The futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. Domestic demand is stable, and the key lies in the alumina production schedule [43][45] 8. Pulp - Oscillatory operation. The price of the pulp futures has declined, and the market for household paper is flat. The key is to monitor changes in raw material pulp prices and paper mill shipments [48][50][51] 9. Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. Futures prices have declined slightly, and spot prices are mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere is average, with mainly rigid - demand purchases [52][53] 10. Methanol - Short - term weakness, medium - term oscillatory pattern. Spot prices are declining, and port inventory has reached a new high. There is a risk of further price decline in ports and inland areas [55][58] 11. Urea - Oscillatory and under pressure. The inventory of urea enterprises has increased, and in the short - term, the price is weak. In the medium - term, there may be fluctuations due to macro - factors, but the long - term fundamentals are still the main contradiction [60][62][63] 12. Styrene - Medium - term bearish. Although the downstream has entered the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, the inventory is at a medium - high level, and the momentum for continuous replenishment is insufficient [64][65] 13. Soda Ash - Spot market with little change. The market is in a weak - side oscillation, with stable supply and lackluster demand. It is expected to remain weakly stable in the short - term [66][68] 14. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Crude oil cost rebounds. There are changes in futures prices, trading volume, and positions, and attention should be paid to CP paper prices and PDH device maintenance plans [71][77] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand tightens, spot price rises. The supply - demand relationship has led to an increase in the spot price [2][71] 15. PVC - Trend under pressure. The supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down [79] 16. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Broad - based oscillation, short - term price weakness. Futures prices have declined, and there are changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [82] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Night session rebounds, high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market stabilizes temporarily. There are changes in futures prices and spreads [82] 17. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - May continue weak - side oscillation. Futures prices have declined, and shipping rates in European and US - West routes have decreased [84]

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamental data and macro/industry news for August 28, 2025 Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore was 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan (-0.13%). The import ore prices of some types changed slightly, and the basis and spreads also had minor fluctuations. The trend intensity was - 1 [4] - **Macro/Industry News**: On August 27, the Shanghai government issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,111 yuan/ton and 3,349 yuan/ton, down 0.48% and 0.92% respectively. Spot prices in different regions decreased. The trend intensity for both was 0 [7][9] - **Macro/Industry News**: In mid - August 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased for crude steel, pig iron, and steel products. The steel inventory of key enterprises also changed. Other data such as weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand from August 21, and the manufacturing supply index in July were provided [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of relevant contracts decreased. Spot prices and various spreads were presented. The trend intensity for both was 0 [10] - **Macro/Industry News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were given. The start - up rate and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia increased in August. The manganese ore export data of Australia's Port Hedland in July were also provided [11][12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some types remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed. The trend intensity for both was 0 [13] - **Macro/Industry News**: On August 27, the Shanghai government issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages [13] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with varying changes in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices of most types remained stable. The trend intensity was 0 [16] - **Macro/Industry News**: Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Six Measures" for the real - estate market, involving six adjustments [18]

2025年08月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供给端扰动反复，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势震荡格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪继续降温 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 28 日 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,760 | 1,390 | 1,830 | -580 | 140 | -410 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,850 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, individual commodity trends and strategies are given: - **Positive Outlook**: Gold, Silver, Tin, PTA, Propylene, LPG [2][22][58] - **Neutral Outlook**: Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Logs, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Paper Pulp, Glass, Soda Ash, PVC, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Pure Benzene, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Peanut [2][12][15][19] - **Negative Outlook**: Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Line), Rubber Plate Printing Paper, Palm Oil, Eggs, Live Pigs [2][54][55][59] 2. Core Views - The report provides daily outlooks and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is analyzed based on its fundamentals, macro - economic news, and market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish remarks influenced the market. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook. The price shows an upward trend in the short - term [2][5][10]. - **Silver**: It is expected to reach a previous high. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a positive outlook [2][6][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces, and the price will fluctuate. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Macro - economic factors and new resource discoveries may affect the supply - demand balance [12][14]. - **Zinc**: Shows a weakening and fluctuating trend. The trend strength is 0, with a neutral outlook. Inventory changes and macro - economic news are key factors [15][18]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 0, with a neutral outlook. Inventory data and macro - economic policies are important [19][20]. - **Tin**: Will fluctuate within a range. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook. Market sentiment and macro - economic news are influential [22][25]. - **Aluminum**: Will fluctuate within a range. Alumina will experience a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, - 1 for alumina, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [26][28]. - **Nickel**: Will run in a narrow - range fluctuation. Stainless steel will have a short - term low - level fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [29][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent, and the price will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a negative outlook [35][38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Is in a weak - fluctuation pattern. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a negative outlook [39][42]. - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][42]. - **Iron Ore**: Will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a negative outlook [43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Will have a wide - range fluctuation. The trend strengths are 0 for both, indicating a neutral outlook [52][53]. - **Log**: Will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [54][57]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a positive spread strategy. PTA is driven by the seasonal demand peak and is in a relatively strong fluctuation market. MEG has a positive spread strategy for the monthly difference and a high - level single - side fluctuation market [58]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a correction. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral - to - negative outlook [61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter is suspended, and the price is in a consolidation phase. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [61]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans slightly decline, and domestic soybean meal has a technical rebound [64]. - **Soybean**: Will fluctuate. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [64]. - **Corn**: Will fluctuate. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [66]. - **Sugar**: Will have a range - bound consolidation. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [67]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new crop situation and external market sentiment. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [68]. - **Egg**: The sentiment in the distant future is weak. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a negative outlook [70]. - **Live Pig**: Spot performance is lower than expected, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a negative outlook [71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. The trend strength is not clearly stated but implies a neutral outlook [72].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The dovish stance of Powell at the JH meeting has influenced the market. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to reach the previous high. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a positive trend [2][9]. - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2][13]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral stance [2][17]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][19]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a relatively positive trend [2][24]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Alumina is expected to decline slightly, with a trend strength of -1. Casting aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - **Nickel**: Expected to trade within a narrow range. The trend strength is 0, showing a neutral stance. Stainless steel is expected to experience short - term low - level fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Gold and Silver** - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the prices of沪金2510, 黄金T + D, and Comex黄金2510 all increased. The ETF持仓 of SPDR黄金ETF increased by 3. For silver, the price of沪银2510 decreased slightly. The SLV白银ETF持仓 remained unchanged [5]. - **News**: Nvidia's revenue outlook raised concerns about AI spending. The New York Fed President hinted at a possible interest rate adjustment in September. The EU plans to cut US tariffs. French bond risk premiums rose. Meituan's Q2 adjusted net profit dropped sharply [7][10][23]. **Copper** - **Fundamentals**: The price of沪铜主力合约 remained flat during the day and decreased slightly at night. The伦铜3M电子盘 price decreased. The trading volume of沪铜主力合约 decreased, while that of伦铜3M电子盘 increased. The inventory of沪铜 decreased, and that of伦铜 increased [11]. - **News**: Fed policy easing expectations led to a decline in US Treasury yields. China's industrial profits in July showed a narrowing decline. A new high - grade copper/gold resource was discovered in Australia. Codelco lowered its copper output target [11][13]. **Zinc** - **Fundamentals**: The price of沪锌主力合约 increased slightly, and the伦锌3M电子盘 price also rose slightly. The trading volume of沪锌主力合约 increased, while that of伦锌 decreased. The inventory of沪锌 and伦锌 both decreased [14]. - **News**: The Fed Chair candidate selection process is ongoing. The US Congress will vote on the Fed's independence [15]. **Lead** - **Fundamentals**: The price of沪铅主力合约 decreased slightly, and the伦铅3M电子盘 price also declined. The trading volume of沪铅 and伦铅 both increased. The inventory of沪铅 increased slightly, while that of伦铅 decreased [18]. - **News**: Fed policy easing expectations led to a decline in US Treasury yields. China's industrial profits in July showed a narrowing decline [19]. **Tin** - **Fundamentals**: The price of沪锡主力合约 increased. The伦锡3M电子盘 price also rose. The trading volume of沪锡 increased significantly. The inventory of沪锡 and伦锡 both increased slightly. The spot price of SMM 1锡锭 decreased [21][22]. - **News**: Similar to gold and silver, including Nvidia's revenue outlook, Fed rate adjustment hints, EU tariff plans, French bond issues, and Meituan's profit decline [21][23]. **Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy** - **Fundamentals**: The price of沪铝主力合约 decreased slightly. The氧化铝主力合约 price decreased. The铝合金主力合约 price increased slightly. The inventory of LME铝 increased slightly, and the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged [25]. - **News**: The EU plans to cut US tariffs to meet Trump's requirements [27]. **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Fundamentals**: The price of沪镍主力合约 increased slightly. The不锈钢主力合约 price also rose slightly. The trading volume of沪镍 and不锈钢 both increased. The price of 1进口镍 increased [28]. - **News**: Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines stopped due to losses [28][30][31].

Report Overview - Date: August 28, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - **Palm Oil**: No new fundamental drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, with prices in a sideways consolidation [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Slight decline in US soybeans, technical rebound in Dalian soybean meal [2][16] - **Soybean**: Trading sideways [2][18] - **Corn**: Moving sideways [2][20] - **Sugar**: Trading within a range [2][24] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the situation of new crops and the impact of external market sentiment [2][28] - **Eggs**: Weak sentiment in the distant end [2][35] - **Hogs**: Spot performance falls short of expectations, sell on rallies [2][37] - **Peanuts**: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][42] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 9,426 yuan/ton with a 0.02% increase, and night - closing price was 9,518 yuan/ton with a 0.98% increase. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,464 yuan/ton with a 0.84% decrease, and night - closing price was 8,394 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The palm oil industry in Malaysia called on the government to reinvest the windfall profit levy (WPL) revenue and adjust the WPL threshold [5][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3045 yuan/ton with a 1.68% decrease, and night - closing price was 3063 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase. DCE soybean 2511's daily - closing price was 3935 yuan/ton with a 1.33% decrease, and night - closing price was 3940 yuan/ton with a 0.40% decrease [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 27, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to expected high yields in the US this fall, but the optimistic sentiment of China - US trade negotiations restricted the decline [19] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,227 yuan/ton with a 0.95% increase during the day and 2,249 yuan/ton with a 0.99% increase at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,164 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase during the day and 2,183 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase at night [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port - collection prices remained stable, while North China's corn prices declined. Imported grains such as sorghum and barley also had price quotes [22] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.44 cents/pound with a 0.02 increase. The mainstream spot price was 5960 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [24] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened. CAOC estimated China's sugar production, consumption, and imports for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [24][25] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease, and night - closing price was 14095 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot market was generally quiet, the cotton yarn market's trading was average, and ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, waiting for weekly export data [29][30] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 2,896 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.62% decrease, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.47% decrease [35] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13780 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13450 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 14940 yuan/ton [38] - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, demand growth was limited, and the spot performance was disappointing. It is recommended to sell on rallies, with a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 14000 yuan/ton for the LH2509 contract [37][40] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,900 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease. PK510's closing price was 8,042 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [42] - **Spot Market**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable with limited supply due to rain. New peanuts are expected to be listed in mid - to late September [43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil in the short - term is to watch [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides information on the closing prices and price changes of various crude oil futures, market news related to crude oil supply and demand, and EIA data on the US crude oil market [1][3] Summary by Relevant Information Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI10 crude oil futures rose by $0.90 per barrel, a 1.42% increase, closing at $64.15 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures rose by $0.83 per barrel, a 1.23% increase, closing at $68.05 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures fell by 4.90 yuan per barrel, a 1.01% decrease, closing at 481.50 yuan per barrel [1] Market News - Russia will extend the full gasoline export ban until September. A new temporary ban on gasoline exports will be in effect from September 1 to September 30 for all exporters, and the restriction for gasoline producers will be lifted from October 1 [2][3] - The White House trade advisor said that India could get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil [3] - Mexico's DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3] - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela last week, the first weekly import since July [3] - There are indications that European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, with a 30 - day process and room for further diplomatic negotiations in the coming weeks [3] - On August 26, an explosion and fire occurred on the oil pipeline connecting Ryazan and Moscow in Russia, and the transportation of oil products to Moscow through this pipeline has been indefinitely suspended [3][4] EIA Data - In the week of August 22, US crude oil exports decreased by 562,000 barrels per day to 3.81 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 13.439 million barrels per day [3] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.15 million barrels per day, a 2.53% increase compared to the same period last year [3] - The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 776,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.234 million barrels per day, a decrease of 263,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [3] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the week to August 22 was 776,000 barrels, compared to 223,000 barrels in the previous week [3] - US EIA crude oil inventory in the week to August 22 was - 2.392 million barrels, expected - 1.863 million barrels, and the previous value was - 6.014 million barrels; EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 838,000 barrels, compared to 419,000 barrels in the previous week [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral stance [4]