期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 15 日 铝：震荡运行 氧化铝：小幅下跌 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 1. 美国通胀"爆表"，7 月 PPI 环比飙升至 0.9%，创三年新高，同比升至 3.3%。美国 7 月 PPI 同比涨 幅从前月的 2.3% 飙升至 3.3%，为今年 2 月以来最高水平，并且远超预期的 2.5%，美国 7 月 PPI 环比 0.9%， 为 2022 年 6 月以来最大涨幅。数据公布后，交易员减少了对美联储将在 9 月降息的押注。（华尔街见闻） 2. 无惧超预期 PPI，美联储主席两位新晋候选人：支持大幅降息。经济学家 Sumerlin 曾在小布什政府期 间担任美国国家经济委员会副主任，他认为激进降息是合适的，可以轻松降息 50 个基点，同时强调美联储 独立性的重要性。Jef ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on August 15, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, with different products showing different trends such as weakening, oscillating, or having support [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. On August 14, the price dropped to $824 per ton. Suggest focusing on terminal order repairs starting from late August, and PXN has short - term support [5][8][13]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are at a low level. Attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts. The polyester start - up rate has increased to 89.4%. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, and consider a 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage [5][10][13]. - **MEG**: The trend is weakly oscillating. There are two sets of MEG devices in East China with a total annual capacity of 1.9 million tons that are currently shut down for 1 - 2 days. It is recommended to hold a mid - term long MEG and short PTA position, operate the 9 - 1 spread within the - 50 to 0 range, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [5][10][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased. The finished product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises remains high, and the order situation is weak [14][15][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within the week. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased, and the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased. In the short term, there is a correction, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the valuation range [19][20][21]. Asphalt - The shipment in East China has improved locally. The trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The weekly output has decreased slightly, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][29][35]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The macro environment has limited changes, the cost has decreased due to falling oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [36][37][39]. PP - Short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious, and the trend still faces pressure. The trend strength is 0. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, and the supply pressure is increasing, but there is uncertainty in the cost [41][42][43]. Caustic Soda - It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The trend strength is 1. The cost support is strong, and there is an expectation of demand in the peak season, especially with the expected production of 3.6 million tons of alumina capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year [45][47][48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The price is affected by supply contraction expectations, tightened domestic circulation sources, and marginal improvement in demand, but the rebound space is limited [50][52][53]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is - 1. The domestic float glass price is weakly stable, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing due to the decline in the futures market [56][57]. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the port market is weakly oscillating, while the inland market has continued to rise [59][62][63]. Urea - It is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the short - term downward pressure is due to the decline in the commodity index and increased fundamental pressure [64][66][67]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The trend strength is 0. The downstream demand for styrene is weak, but pure benzene is temporarily strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to positions that compress styrene profit [68][69]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The trend strength is - 1. The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is stable, with a light and stable oscillation expected in the short term [71][73][74]. LPG - The disk valuation is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction. The trend strength is 0. The expected price of Saudi CP has decreased, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [77][82][83]. Propylene - Supply and demand are tightening, and the price has certain support. The trend strength is 0. The PDH start - up rate has increased, and the spread between propylene and relevant contracts has changed [78][82]. PVC - It is expected to oscillate weakly. The trend strength is - 1. The industry profit has expanded, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86][87]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session oscillates, and the short - term weakness continues. The trend strength is 0. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fluctuation intensifies, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The trend strength is 0 [88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in oscillating consolidation, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. The freight rate index has declined, and the trading volume and position of relevant futures have changed [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The manganese - silicon sector has a weak sentiment and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Core View - The report provides the latest data on silicon - iron and manganese - silicon fundamentals, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and price differences. It also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon - iron, the 2509 contract closed at 5744 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 92,937 and an open interest of 72,388; the 2510 contract closed at 5724 yuan, down 54 yuan, with a trading volume of 73,995 and an open interest of 58,183. For manganese - silicon, the 2509 contract closed at 6050 yuan, down 24 yuan, with a trading volume of 177,497 and an open interest of 172,038; the 2510 contract closed at 6054 yuan, down 32 yuan, with a trading volume of 45,940 and an open interest of 48,032 [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of silicon - iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5450 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 40.3 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 620 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon - iron is - 294 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese - silicon is - 250 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - On August 14, the price range of 72 silicon - iron in different regions: 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 silicon - iron: 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (+50), 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The FOB price of 72 silicon - iron is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2] - Hegang has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon - iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from July. A steel mill in Zhejiang set the price of silicon - manganese at 6122 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory, based on the standard), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons. A steel mill in Jiangxi set the price of 6517 silicon - manganese at 6180 yuan/ton (based on the standard, acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), up 80 yuan/ton from the beginning - of - month price [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon - iron is 0, and that of manganese - silicon is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]

2025 年 08 月 15 日 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16770 | -0.95% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1988 | -1.39% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 45616 | 16679 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4632 | -935 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51370 | 1946 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 154530 | 682 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate industry is experiencing a slight reduction in inventory and is in a state of volatile operation [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 85,140 yuan, the trading volume was 62,069 lots, and the open interest was 98,063 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 85,300 yuan, the trading volume was 1,060,127 lots, and the open interest was 389,177 lots [1] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was - 3,140 yuan, and the basis of spot - 2511 was - 3,300 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 937 US dollars, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,075 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salt Product Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,750 yuan [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,390 yuan, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 113,530 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 82,047 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,101 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,750 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan/ton [2] - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, an increase of 424 tons compared to the previous week, and the weekly inventory was 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations [1] - The trend strength of pure benzene is neutral, with a value of 0 [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures prices: BZ2603 decreased by 58 to 6179, BZ2604 decreased by 44 to 6160, BZ2605 increased by 9 to 6231 [1] - Spread prices: BZ2603 - BZ2604 decreased by 14 to 19, BZ2604 - BZ2605 decreased by 53 to -71 [1] - Paper prices: N+1 decreased by 35 to 6130, N+2 decreased by 25 to 6120 [1] - Inventory: Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 1.7 to 14.6 (in ten thousand tons), and styrene inventory in East China ports decreased by 10040 to 128640 (in tons) [1] - Price differences: Shandong pure benzene price decreased by 10 to 6235, Shandong pure benzene price - hydrogenated benzene price decreased by 10 to 10, Shandong pure benzene price - East China pure benzene price increased by 30 to 105 [1] News - As of August 11, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.7 tons to 14.6 tons compared to the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 10.43%, and increased by 10.3 tons compared to the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 239.53% [2] - From August 4 to August 11, the estimated arrival was about 0 tons, and the estimated pick - up was about 1.7 tons [2] - On August 14, the non - long - term agreement trading volume of pure benzene in Shandong was about 300 tons, with an average price of 6235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - The spot negotiation price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 40 to an average of 6130, the August bottom transaction price decreased by 45 to an average of 6140, the September bottom transaction price decreased by 35 to an average of 6130, and the October bottom transaction price decreased by 25 to an average of 6120 [2]

2025 年 08 月 15 日 短纤：下方空间有限，震荡市 瓶片：下方空间有限，震荡市 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2509 | 昨日 6276 | 前日 6340 | 变化 -64 | PF09-10 | 昨日 -62 | 前日 -74 | 变化 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6338 | 6414 | -76 | PF10-11 | 2 | -20 | 22 | | | 短纤2511 | 6336 | 6434 | -98 | PF基差 | 112 | 81 | 31 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 311048 | 314682 | -3634 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.450 | 6. 495 | -45 | | | 短纤成交量 | 230295 昨日 | 267043 前日 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile; Hot-Rolled Coil: Demand Falls Short of Expectations, Weak and Volatile" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing demand that falls short of expectations and are in a state of weak and volatile trends. The trend strength for both rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [2][3][7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - RB2510 closed at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%), with a trading volume of 1,283,713 lots and an open interest of 1,636,544 lots (a decrease of 16,049 lots) [3]. - HC2510 closed at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%), with a trading volume of 551,741 lots and an open interest of 1,291,831 lots (a decrease of 62,005 lots) [3]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,060 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis for RB2510 decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, and the basis for HC2510 decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 4 yuan/ton to -78 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton [3]. - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 243 yuan/ton, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton [3]. - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar increased by 21 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Output, Inventory, and Demand Data (August 14 Steel Union Weekly Data)**: - Rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar inventory increased by 30.51 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 0.84 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 2.42 tons [4]. - Rebar apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.54 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 14.72 tons [4]. - **Financial Data (July Financial Statistics Report)**: - At the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% (compared to 8.3% at the end of June). The balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan [6]. - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans increased by 680.7 billion yuan, corporate loans increased by 11.63 trillion yuan, and non-banking financial institution loans increased by 235.7 billion yuan [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Inventory Data (Late July)**: - The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 14.78 million tons, a decrease of 880,000 tons (5.6%) from the previous ten-day period, an increase of 2.41 million tons (19.5%) from the beginning of the year, a decrease of 670,000 tons (4.3%) from the same ten-day period last month, a decrease of 1.27 million tons (7.9%) from the same ten-day period last year, and an increase of 290,000 tons (2.0%) from the same ten-day period the year before last [6]. - **Automobile Production and Sales Data (July)**: - In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% [6]. - From January to July, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12% [6]. - **Steel Enterprise Production Data (Late July)**: - Key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons (a 7.4% decrease from the previous ten-day period); 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous ten-day period); and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 0.5% increase from the previous ten-day period) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for rebar and hot-rolled coil is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 15 日 铁矿石：钢铁现实需求改善有限，高位回调 | | | 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | 775. 0 | -20.0 | -2.52% | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | 451.957 | -462 | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉(65%) 883. 0 | 890. 0 | -7.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) 771.0 | 784. 0 | -13.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) 744. 0 | 758. 0 | -14.0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) 6 ...

2025 年 8 月 15 日 沥青：华东出货局部好转 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,510 | -0.68% | 3,510 | 0.00% | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,472 | -0.88% | 3,466 | -0.17% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2509 | 手 | 13,139 | 705 | 37,544 | (3,639) | | | BU2510 | 手 | 153,819 | 30,630 | 224,823 | (176) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 73550 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 ...