2025 年 08 月 11 日 纯苯：持续去库，短期偏强 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 【趋势强度】 纯苯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6204 | 6248 | -44 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1095 | -1051 | -44 | | BZ2604 | 6174 | 6233 | -59 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1031 | -1048 | 17 | | BZ2605 | 6239 | 6239 | 0 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1146 | -1137 | -9 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 30 | 1 ...

2025 年 08 月 11 日 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16845 | -0.18% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2003.5 | -0.17% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 31008 | -1423 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5355 | -456 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 59123 | -2896 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 151197 | 868 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -35 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -31.29 | 2.23 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -55 | -5 | 进口升贴水（ ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG is expected to experience short - term weak and volatile trends, while propylene's supply - demand situation is tightening, and its price has certain support [1]. - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1, indicating a neutral outlook for LPG and a slightly positive outlook for propylene [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - PG2509 closed at 3,774 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.28% and a night - session close of 3,775 with a 0.03% increase. - PG2510 closed at 4,252 yesterday with a 0.91% decline and a night - session close of 4,257 with a 0.12% increase. - PL2601 closed at 6,451 yesterday with a 0.45% decline and a night - session close of 6,463 with a 0.19% increase. - PL2602 closed at 6,502 yesterday with a 0.35% decline and a night - session close of 6,510 with a 0.12% increase [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: - For PG2509, yesterday's trading volume was 98,990, an increase of 23,479 from the previous day, and the position was 108,631, an increase of 2,869. - For PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 30,262, an increase of 2,357 from the previous day, and the position was 90,216, an increase of 2,753. - For PL2601, yesterday's trading volume was 1,187, an increase of 69 from the previous day, and the position was 4,747, an increase of 213. - For PL2602, yesterday's trading volume was 49, an increase of 37 from the previous day, and the position was 924, a decrease of 38 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG09 contract was 566 yesterday, up from 527 the previous day. - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG09 contract was 576 yesterday, up from 517 the previous day. - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 151 yesterday, up from - 205 the previous day. - The spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day. - The spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day [1]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: - The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8%, up from 72.6% last week. - The MTBE operating rate was 66.6%, down from 67.8%. - The alkylation operating rate was 50.0%, up from 48.8% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 7, 2025, the expected price of propane for September's Saudi CP was 518 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 488 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton. For October, the expected price of propane was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton, and the expected price of butane was 502 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times yet to be determined [10]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [11].

棕榈油：产地供需两旺，关注今日 MPOB 报告 2025 年 8 月 11 日 商 品 研 究 豆油：美豆驱动不足，关注国内后续采购 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,980 | 0.34% | 8,980 | 0.00% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,400 | -0.07% | 8,382 | -0.21% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,574 | 0.82% | 9,561 | -0.14% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,254 | 0.33% | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52.43 | -1.85% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 442,221 | -2907 | 305,714 | -11,474 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly following crude oil [1] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,511 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.15%, and the night - session closing price was 3,515 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. The trading volume was 36,284 lots with an increase of 576 lots, and the open interest was 54,003 lots with a decrease of 6,576 lots. For BU2510, the yesterday's closing price was 3,478 yuan/ton with a 1.42% decline, and the night - session closing price was 3,484 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase. The trading volume was 157,320 lots with an increase of 1,399 lots, and the open interest was 221,612 lots with an increase of 10,056 lots [1] - **Spot Data**: The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 78,170 lots with an increase of 1,520 lots. The basis (Shandong - 09) was 249 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 33 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Shandong - South China spread and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged. The Shandong wholesale price was 3,760 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, both unchanged [1] - **Industry Data**: As of August 7th, the refinery utilization rate was 34.33%, down 0.07% from August 4th, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.54%, down 0.20% from August 4th [1] Trend Intensity - The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8] Market News - From July 30th to August 5th, 2025, the total shipments of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers were 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipments decreased due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipments increased due to high - load production and good shipping after improved weather [14] - From July 31st to August 6th, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt manufacturers was 31.7%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residual oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report maintains a reverse spread strategy for the hog market [1] 2. Core View - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers passively hold back hogs. With limited demand growth, the market faces significant pressure. The daily trading volume is poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. As the September contract enters the pre - delivery month and the second position limit on the tenth trading day, the futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, presenting a situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 13,930 yuan/ton, 14,180 yuan/ton, and 14,415 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 8,931 lots, 34,996 lots, and 12,459 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,234 lots, + 287 lots, and + 830 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 26,443 lots, 60,194 lots, and 44,010 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,287 lots, + 596 lots, and + 853 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The basis of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are - 50 yuan/ton, - 300 yuan/ton, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 160 yuan/ton, - 180 yuan/ton, and - 120 yuan/ton. The spreads between LH2509 and LH2511, and between LH2511 and LH2601 are - 250 yuan/ton and - 235 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 20 yuan/ton and + 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the market. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3] 3.3 Market Logic - In August, the market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand. The September contract's entry into the pre - delivery month and the large premium to the warehouse receipt cost increase the industry's delivery willingness. The macro sentiment supports far - end contracts, resulting in a reverse spread structure [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The corn market is under pressure on the futures market, with a neutral trend strength [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The purchase price in Northeast China is not available, the Jinzhou平仓 price is 2,320 yuan/ton, the average purchase price in North China is not available, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2,390 yuan/ton. The price of Shandong corn starch is 2,840 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of C2509 yesterday was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, and the overnight closing price was 2,262 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The closing price of C2511 yesterday was 2,199 yuan/ton, down 0.68%, and the overnight closing price was 2,203 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of C2509 yesterday was 338,463 lots, a decrease of 26,786 lots, and the open interest was 659,407 lots, a decrease of 25,646 lots. The trading volume of C2511 yesterday was 167,935 lots, an increase of 22,438 lots, and the open interest was 592,103 lots, an increase of 18,913 lots. The total trading volume of the corn market was 612,883 lots, an increase of 2,845 lots, and the total open interest was 1,711,288 lots, an increase of 18,659 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of corn warehouse receipts in the market yesterday was 144,037 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract 09 was 65 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 56 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Corn Prices**: The northern corn collection port price is 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (listed), the container collection port price is 2,330 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the prices are flat compared to yesterday. The price of bulk ships in Guangdong Shekou is 2,370 - 2,390 yuan/ton, and the container price is 2,460 - 2,490 yuan/ton, also flat compared to yesterday. The corn prices in Northeast enterprises slightly decreased, and the prices in North China showed mixed trends [2]. - **Substitute Grain Prices**: The price of Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for September - October shipment is 2,120 yuan/ton, the price of Australian sorghum for September shipment is 2,430 yuan/ton. The pre - sale price of imported barley for October - November shipment is 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and for December - January shipment is 2,040 - 2,090 yuan/ton. The price of feed wheat for August delivery is 2,560 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

2025 年 08 月 11 日 甲醇：窄幅震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,383 | 2,388 | - 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,388 | 2,395 | - 7 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 299,310 | 291,501 | 7809 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 407,074 | 436,677 | -29603 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 8,688 | 8,688 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 714,862 | 698,085 | 16777 | | | 基 差 | 基 差 | | -3 ...

白糖：估值有安全边际 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.27 | 0.24 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 107 | 25 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5930 | -20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 43 | 1 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5573 | -94 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 357 | 74 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 11 日 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：1 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 期货研究 高频信息：巴西中南部 7 月上半月压榨进度加快；印度季风降水高于 LPA；巴西 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market is slightly bullish with oscillations, while in the medium - term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The low - valuation of cis - butadiene rubber makes the market less willing to short. This is due to the long - term policy orientation of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization supporting the overall commodity valuation, and the neutral fundamentals of the rubber and butadiene sectors. There are short - term speculative rallies at the lower end of the fundamental valuation, but limited upside in the medium - term due to lack of fundamental upward drivers [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract) was 11,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 41,370 lots, a decrease of 18,741 lots; the open interest was 25,625 lots, a decrease of 831 lots; and the trading volume was 237.957 million yuan, a decrease of 107.947 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 35 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 105 yuan, an increase of 175 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The price of North China private cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the prices of East China and South China private cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton; the market price of Shandong delivery - grade cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton and 9,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.6381%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit was - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Production**: This week, the output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.29 percentage points. Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week. It is expected that Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda's cis - butadiene rubber plants will restart next week, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber will increase [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025 (week 32), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Although some production plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream customers and slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]