Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The cotton market continues to show a volatile trend. The domestic cotton spot trading is sluggish, the cotton - textile industry shows mixed performance, and the ICE cotton futures in the US rebounded after a decline. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The CF2601 contract closed at 13,800 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.25% and a night - session price of 13,825 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase. The CY2511 contract closed at 19,605 yuan/ton with a 0.51% daily decline and a night - session price of 19,715 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. The ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 66.36 cents/pound with a 0.84% decline [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 181,994 lots, a decrease of 14,812 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 743,288 lots, a decrease of 4,927 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 5,708 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 17,053 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,252, a decrease of 77, and the effective forecast was 330, a decrease of 18. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 83, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.20% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 160 yuan/ton, with a 5 - yuan increase from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different basis ranges for cotton sales [2]. - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has improved slightly compared to the previous period, with downstream demand - based procurement. The overall performance is still average. The full - cotton greige fabric market is generally dull, with some improvements in local orders [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report on August 12 [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, along with their fundamental data and macro - industry news, helping investors understand the market situation of these commodities [2][5][8] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (-0.38%); yesterday's position was 308,077 hands, down 27,288 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,213 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.71%); for HC2510, it was 3,428 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%). Spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. There were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month - on - month, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. On August 7, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; a manganese mine enterprise signed a long - term contract; manganese ore inventory in ports changed [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 declined. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different trends, and there were changes in basis and spreads [15] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [19] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

2025年08月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，关注今日MPOB报告 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，关注国内后续采购 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：盘面承压 | 6 | | 白糖：估值有安全边际 | 8 | | 棉花：延续震荡走势 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货存在反弹情绪 | 11 | | 生猪：现货弱势，维持反套 | 12 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,980 | 0.34% | 8,980 | 0.00% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,400 | -0.07% | 8,382 | -0.21 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts its elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions is intensifying, and the steel price is fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The shutdown of a large - scale mine in Jiangxi has been implemented, and the price is running strongly [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 74,864, a decrease of 21,747 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 86,671, an increase of 1,172 from T - 1 [4]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,150, down 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 919, unchanged from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, up 50 from T - 1 [4]. b. Macro and Industry News - Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - China ENFI's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [5]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron production by about 1,900 tons of metal [6][7]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [7]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate a. Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 76,640, up 4,720 from T - 1; the trading volume was 145,134, a decrease of 64,511 from T - 1; the open interest was 149,489, a decrease of 11,062 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 76,960, up 4,660 from T - 1; the trading volume was 895,609, an increase of 128,940 from T - 1; the open interest was 320,706, an increase of 30,874 from T - 1 [12]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900, up 800 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800, up 800 from T - 1. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777, up 20 from T - 1 [12]. b. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, a rise of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day [13]. - CATL's Jiaxiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight and has no short - term resumption plan [13]. - The Australian government will inject 50 million Australian dollars (about 32.5 million US dollars) into Liontown Resources to accelerate its underground mining transformation [14]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index having five consecutive positive days and reaching a phased high on Friday. The market's structural trend remains, and the previously mentioned potential negative factors did not occur, so the market continued to rise in a volatile manner. Overseas, the US Nasdaq index hit a record high on Friday [1]. - Although the micro - trading structure has deteriorated due to the continuous market rise, the reversal of the market trend mainly depends on the change in fundamentals. Currently, the probability of negative factors emerging is low, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut is rising. The market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend without significant disturbances, but there will be adjustment pressure if negative news increases [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most global stock indexes rose. The US Nasdaq index rose 3.87%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.11%, and other major indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [7]. - All major domestic indexes rose last week. The CSI 1000 index had the largest increase of 14.8%, followed by the ChiNext Index with a 9.0% increase [10]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the materials industry had the largest increase of 5.64%, while the pharmaceutical industry fell 1.08%. In the CSI 500 index, the energy industry had the largest increase of 4.32%, and the information industry fell 0.05% [11]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IM2508 futures contract had the largest increase among the main stock index futures contracts, and also had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased [13][15][19]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 1st, the PE (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.41 times, the CSI 300 index was 13.11 times, the SSE 50 index was 11.25 times, the CSI 500 index was 30.33 times, and the CSI 1000 index was 41.17 times [24][25]. 3.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The number of newly established equity - biased funds and new investors in the two markets showed certain trends. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [28]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - **Trend - following Strategy**: Adopt a bullish view on pullbacks. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 main contracts are 3974 - 4179 points, 2715 - 2841 points, 6110 - 6520 points, and 6572 - 7015 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 10, 2025 [1][2] - It covers PX, PTA, and MEG, including supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX - naphtha spread strengthened to $268/ton from $241 last week, and PX - MX spread rose to $123/ton from $113 [4] - With potential new MX plants in August, the PX - MX spread may remain high - The PX futures monthly spread showed an upward trend, and the basis (foreign - domestic spread) strengthened in 2025 [19][21] Supply - China's PX operating rate was 82% (+0.9%), and Asia's was 73.6% (+0.2%) [3][45] - Domestic supply is abundant with plant restarts and load increases, while overseas supply in Japan and South Korea has a mix of restarts and maintenance Demand - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [3][5] - PTA processing fees dropped to 170 yuan/ton, with potential unplanned production cuts or maintenance Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct 9 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or EB for inter - commodity trading [4] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - PTA spot processing fees remained around 200 - 250 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract processing fees dropped from 360 to 330 yuan/ton [5] - The basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread weakened Supply - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [5][83] - Planned restart capacity is 470 million tons, and planned maintenance capacity is 425 million tons Demand - Bottled PET production cuts ended, but destocking was average, and load recovery is expected in late August to early September [5] - Short - fiber and filament factories' downstream profits improved slightly, but production resumption depends on terminal orders Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct range operations for 9 - 1 inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [5] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The single - side valuation is in a volatile market, and the monthly spread declined with limited downside space [121] - MEG's relative valuation against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics reached a high for the year Supply - Due to the arrival of previously delayed shipments and the expected restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 90 - million - ton new plant, domestic operating rates are rising [6] - Coal - based plants' profits are still high, and the operating rate is maintained at around 75% Demand - Similar to PTA, demand recovery depends on terminal orders [6] Strategy - Conduct range operations for single - side trading, 9 - 1 monthly spread range operations from - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads for inter - period trading; go long on L and short on MEG or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [6] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation in November [8] - PTA: Honggang Petrochemical's 250 - million - ton plant in June, Sanfangxiang's 300 - million - ton plant in August, and Xin Fengming's 300 - million - ton plant are planned [8] - MEG: Sichuan Zhengda Kai's 60 - million - ton plant was put into operation in May, Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, and Ningxia Kunpeng's 20 - million - ton plant [8] - Polyester: Anhui Youshun's 30 - million - ton (filament), Fujian Henghai's 30 - million - ton (filament), and other plants are planned [8]

Group 1: Market Performance - Last week (August 4 - August 8), the US soybean futures price fluctuated. The November contract of the US soybean main force had a weekly decline of 0.15%, and the December contract of the US soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.64% [1]. - Last week, domestic soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated. The m2509 contract of the soybean meal main force had a weekly increase of 1.16%, and the a2509 contract of the soybean No. 1 main force had a weekly decline of 0.32% [1]. Group 2: International Soybean Market Fundamentals - US soybean sales increased week - on - week and were higher than expected. In the week ending July 31, the 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 690,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 63%. The cumulative 2024/25 US soybean export shipments were about 47.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The current and next - year net sales of US soybeans were about 1.02 million tons, higher than the expected 300,000 - 800,000 tons [1]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week and met expectations. As of the week ending August 4, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, compared with 70% the previous week and 68% the same period last year [1]. - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crush margin: As of the week ending August 8, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crush margin increased week - on - week [1]. - The weather forecast for the US soybean main production areas: In mid - August (August 13 - August 21), precipitation in the US soybean main production areas will decrease and the temperature will be higher, which has a slightly positive impact [1]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Sales volume: The soybean meal sales volume increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily sales volume of soybean meal of mainstream oil mills in China was about 510,000 tons, compared with about 300,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Pick - up volume: The soybean meal pick - up volume decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal of major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, compared with about 194,000 tons the previous week [2]. - Basis: The soybean meal basis increased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 8, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 112 yuan/ton, compared with about - 123 yuan/ton the previous week [3]. - Inventory: The soybean meal inventory was basically flat week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 1, the soybean meal inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 920,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of about 31% [3]. - Crushing volume: The domestic soybean weekly crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic soybean weekly crushing volume was about 2.18 million tons, and it is expected to be about 2.37 million tons next week [3]. Group 4: Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - Prices: The soybean prices in the Northeast production area were slightly weaker, while those in other areas were stable. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in some areas in the Inner Pass remained the same as the previous week [4]. - New soybean growth: The new soybeans in the Northeast production area are growing well, and the willingness to hold prices has weakened. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in many places if there is no extreme weather later [4]. - State - reserve auction: The one - way auction of state - reserve soybeans started, and the first auction ended in failure. On August 8, 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans were planned to be auctioned at a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton, all of which were unsold [4]. - Demand in the sales area: The demand in the sales area is flat. Although the Beginning of Autumn has passed, the temperature in many places is still high, and it will take time for the terminal demand for soybean products to recover [4]. Group 5: Market Forecast - Next week (August 11 - August 15), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures are expected to fluctuate. Domestic soybean meal will be slightly stronger due to concerns about the trade war. For domestic soybeans, the spot price in the Northeast production area is slightly weaker, and the new soybeans are growing well [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is weak and volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The current market shows rising production and inventory, with a weak structure. However, considering the cost - side support and the expected increase in demand during the peak season, especially the planned alumina capacity expansion in Guangxi at the end of the year, the market is expected to turn bullish later. It is recommended to go long on dips, engage in positive spreads for 10 - 1 and 11 - 1 contracts, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [5] - **PVC**: The industry's fundamentals have not significantly improved during the anti - involution process. With high production and inventory, and weak demand both domestically and in exports, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to go short on rallies, avoid participating in inter - period spreads, and go long on caustic soda while shorting PVC [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 contract is strengthening, and the downside space of the 10 - 1 month spread is limited. The export market still provides support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spread is below the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][19] 3.1.2 Supply - The domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate this week is 85.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons is 461,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side has changed significantly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine has led to a decent profit situation [40][44][45] 3.1.3 Demand - Alumina production is increasing, with rising inventory and profit. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production expansion can drive a new round of demand growth. The pulp industry is expanding capacity, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries have stable operations, and the water treatment and ternary precursor industries also have stable operations [76][82][93] 3.1.4 Balance Sheet - Assuming a 1 - million - ton caustic soda production capacity is put into operation in 2025, under different demand scenarios (weak, neutral, and optimistic), the supply - demand gap varies with different operating rates [102] 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Spread - The PVC basis is oscillating and strengthening, while the 9 - 1 month spread is oscillating weakly [106] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The PVC production capacity utilization rate this week is 79.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 4.73%. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in the northwest from August to September in 2025. By 2025, 2.2 million tons of new capacity will be put into operation, increasing the supply pressure [111][113][114] - **Demand**: The real estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the overall operating rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are weaker year - on - year. The PVC export expectation is weakening, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 being 1.9605 million tons, and the monthly export volume decreasing by 27.61% month - on - month [123][129][138]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are supportive, and it operates within the valuation range. The short - term market is slightly bullish, while the medium - term remains within the fundamental valuation range [2][4]. - The price of butadiene is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.17%, a 4.29 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. Some plants such as Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical carried out short - term maintenance. Next week, the plants of Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda are expected to restart, and the output is expected to increase [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires slightly decreased, while that of all - steel tires slightly increased. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will vary. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires may continue to decline slightly, while that of all - steel tires is expected to increase. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 700 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 6, 2025 (Week 32), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.38% month - on - month increase. Although some production plants carried out short - term maintenance this week, the downstream was waiting for price drops, and the price of arbitrage resources was relatively low, resulting in slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4]. 3.1.4 Valuation and Viewpoint - In the short term, it is slightly bullish, and in the medium term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to rise slightly. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish with upper pressure at 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: No relevant strategy. - Inter - variety: The price difference between NR - BR is expected to narrow in the short term [4]. 3.2 Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Supply - Some enterprises carried out plant maintenance this week, and the domestic butadiene supply decreased. The output was 102,500 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.87% decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%, a 0.21% month - on - month decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, and the demand for butadiene maintained a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained stable [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 8.71% compared to last week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.50%, while the inventory of sample ports increased by 41.35% due to the arrival of imported vessels. As of August 6, the inventory at East China ports was about 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. The overall arrival volume of butadiene is expected to be low, and the port price may remain resilient. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Supply of Butadiene Rubber - Output: The output and operating rate data of butadiene rubber are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are detailed [34][35]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data of butadiene rubber are provided [37][38][39]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of butadiene rubber are presented [41][42]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory data of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are provided [46][48]. 3.4.2 Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire: The inventory and operating rate data of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: Expected to trade in a narrow range. Mine - end support weakens, and smelting - end logic limits price elasticity. Long - term low - cost supply may impact the cost curve, but short - term prices are difficult to fall deeply yet face an upper limit. Consider interval trading and double - sell option strategies [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Intensified multi - short battle, with prices expected to oscillate. Bulls focus on inventory decline and policy uncertainties, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuation [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term trend follows coking coal. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the market may follow coking coal, but the fundamental trend is downward [28][32]. - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment cools down, and there is a callback drive. Policy factors dominate, and short - term prices may decline. The market is expected to be volatile in the third quarter [28][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The shutdown of Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. Before overseas supply fills the gap, prices will remain upward. Otherwise, pay attention to project resumption [54][56]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,180 yuan/ton. The inventory of refined nickel in China decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [6][7][13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,106,304 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44% [5][8][13]. Supply and Demand - **Nickel**: Mine - end support weakens, and long - term low - cost supply may change the cost curve. The inventory of nickel pig iron decreased marginally, and the price was revised upwards [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply side has some structural production cuts, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. However, the actual supply elasticity and high inventory still limit price increases [5]. Market News - Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; and Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price was 8,710 yuan/ton, and the spot price declined. Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia's 99 - grade silicon prices decreased [28]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, rising first and then falling. The spot market showed no significant improvement [28]. Supply and Demand - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply increased as factories in the southwest and northwest resumed production. The industry inventory shifted from destocking to restocking [29]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply increased as some factories resumed production, and the upstream inventory started to accumulate. The demand side saw a marginal increase in silicon wafer production [30][31]. Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before large - scale resumption, the price may follow coking coal, but the long - term trend is downward [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy factors dominate, and there is a short - term callback drive. Consider positive spreads for PS2511/PS2512 and recommend selling hedging for upstream factories [32][34][35]. Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The futures prices of 2509 and 2511 contracts increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The basis changed from positive to negative [54]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China increased, and Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China grew [55]. - Demand: The new - energy vehicle market continued to recover, and the energy - storage bidding scale increased [55]. - Inventory: The total social inventory increased, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking [55]. Future Outlook - The shutdown of the Jianxiaowo mine is expected to drive prices up. The futures price is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton. Consider reverse spreads and selling hedging [56][57][58].