2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 12 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 1、美国 Q3 实际 GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyu ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 23 日 焦炭：区间震荡 焦煤：区间震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1131.5 | 2.5 | 0. 2% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1 688 | 4.5 | 0. 3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 736188 | 521061 | 5617 | | | | J2605 | 12490 | 38116 | -242 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1640 1426 | 1640 1426 | 0 | | | | | | | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1243 | 1243 | 0 | ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,944 | 涨跌幅 1.27% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,914 | 涨跌幅 -0.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,084 | 0.50% | 8,084 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,002 | 0.61% | 8,966 | -0.40% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,198 | 1.06% | 4,178 | -0.45% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.74 | -0.50% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 502,993 | 15880 | 467,244 | 21,301 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 262,334 ...

商 品 研 究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （03合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 12,270 182,757 | 11,915 128,058 | 355 54699 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 96,682 | 93,726 | 2956 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,104,674 | 750,670 | 354004 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -420 | -265 | -155 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | （民营） | -110 | -100 | -10 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | | 11,550 | 11,300 | | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,600 | 11,350 | 250 250 | | | | 华南顺丁 | （民营） | 11,650 | 11,450 | ...

【基本面跟踪】 2026 年 01 月 23 日 品 研 究 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,825 | 45 | 95 | 135 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 230,130 | -50,445 | -5,712 | -85,196 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 228,488 | 4,801 | -2,232 | 18,615 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,515 | 815 | 1,845 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 10,922 | -4,562 | -1,781 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 43,318 | -602 | -4,48 ...

期货研究 烧碱：低位震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 03合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 1948 615 1922 -26 2026 年 1 月 23 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 烧碱成本下滑、供需坍塌，导致价格持续走低。春节前面临去库的压力，厂家只能持续降价，因此烧碱 近月压力持续，02 合约和 03 合约交割压力仍较大。从基本面看，烧碱仍是高产量、高库存格局。需求端， 氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，同时非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口 承压，整体需求难有支撑。供应端看，冬季本身是氯碱企业检修淡季，在没有亏损至现金流成本前，厂家难 出现大规模降负。 整体看，烧碱高库存导致降价趋势在春节前难逆转，不过液氯的短期强势格局在 4 月份之后或难以持 续（PVC、光伏等抢出口带动部分耗氯下游），因此远月合约基本面或面临成本抬升、供应预期减产的格局， 04、05 合约及之后的合约追空需谨慎。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势 ...

陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 LPG：内外盘共振上扬 丙烯：现货维持紧平衡 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2602 2603 | 4,199 4,134 | 0.91% 1.60% | 4,236 4,169 | 0.88% 0.85% | PG | 2602 2603 | 3,875 70,113 | -808 27,098 | 4,362 87,096 | -1,769 -1,004 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 | 4,398 | 1.20% | 4,444 | 1.05% | ...

| 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6814 | 2.22% | 567632 | 11162 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -164 | | -146 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -31 | | -28 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6650 | | 6520 | | | | 华东 | 6700 | | 6650 | | | | 华南 | 6750 | | 6700 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 LLDPE：风偏继续外溢，基差走弱明显 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 【现货消息】 期货走强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，中游开单再度改善。标品排产继续回升，成 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 23, 2026, and the trend of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It will also maintain the stability of the financial market and support the capital market [5]. - The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [5]. - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [5]. - Six major state - owned banks will implement the fiscal discount policy for personal consumer loans, and the actual interest rate for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range [6]. - China will conduct a pilot program to extend the second - round land contracts by 30 years on a provincial - wide basis this year [6]. - From January 1, 2026, a project to provide pension service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people will be implemented nationwide [6]. - The 2026 national college entrance examination will be held on June 7 and 8, and efforts will be made to optimize the discipline and major settings [6]. - In December 2025, the unemployment rates of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 were 16.5%, 6.9%, and 3.9% respectively [7]. - The US 2025 Q3 GDP final annualized quarterly growth was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November met expectations. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [7]. - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,900/oz to $5,400/oz [7]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil futures fell. London base metals generally rose [7][8]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different performances. The short - term downward pressure of IF2603 and IH2603 increased slightly, while IC2603 and IM2603 showed a slight upward trend [9][10][11]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will be mostly in a strong or moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, the stock index futures will be in a strong oscillation [13]. Gold Futures - On January 22, the main contract AU2604 of gold futures had a slight downward oscillation. The short - term upward momentum weakened, and the downward pressure increased slightly [29]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of gold futures will be in a moderately strong oscillation and will reach a record high. On January 23, AU2604 will be in a strong oscillation and may reach a new high [29][30]. Silver Futures - On January 22, the main contract AG2604 of silver futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, AG2604 will be in a moderately strong oscillation and may reach a new high [33][34]. Copper Futures - On January 21, the main contract CU2603 of copper futures had a slight downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 22, CU2603 will be in a weak oscillation [39]. Tin Futures - On January 22, the main contract SN2603 of tin futures had a downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, SN2603 will be in a strong oscillation [42]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 22, the main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, its main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, LC2605 will be in a wide - range strong oscillation [48][49]. Coking Coal Futures - On January 22, the main contract JM2605 of coking coal futures had a slight upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [51]. Glass Futures - On January 22, the main contract FG605 of glass futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [57][58]. Soda Ash Futures - On January 22, the main contract SA605 of soda ash futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [62]. PTA Futures - On January 22, the main contract TA605 of PTA futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [68]. PVC Futures - On January 22, the main contract V2605 of PVC futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [70]. Methanol Futures - On January 22, the main contract MA605 of methanol futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [71]. Soybean Meal Futures - On January 22, the main contract M2605 of soybean meal futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a weak oscillation [73]. Natural Rubber Futures - On January 22, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a moderately strong oscillation [76].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,083.56 | -0.49% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 1,083.92 | -0.19% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4938.40 | 2.11% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 23370 | 0.82% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 23366 | 0.60% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex白银2602 | 96.215 | 3.51% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - ...