2025 年 10 月 23 日 集运指数（欧线）：相对抗跌 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,136.6 | 0.24% | 1,170 | 5,583 | -789 | 0.21 | 0.37 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,788.3 | 2.25% | 28,612 | 29,008 | 574 | 0.99 | 1.51 | | | EC2602 | 1,582.9 | 1.82% | 4,733 | 10,664 | 431 | 0.44 | 0.53 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 616.9 | | | EC2602-EC ...

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：期货反弹基差偏弱 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：短期屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,164 | 涨跌幅 -1.40% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,080 | 涨跌幅 -0.92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,380 | 200 | 200 | 480 | -600 | 280 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,710 | 45 | ...

商 品 研 2025 年 10 月 23 日 原油：利好共振，短期修复性反弹 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI12 月原油期货收涨 1.26 美元/桶，涨幅 2.20%，报 58.50 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收涨 1.27 美元/桶，涨幅 2.07%，报 62.59 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收涨 7.30 元/桶，涨幅 1.65%， 报 449.10 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 简要说明 | 目标原油 | 基准原油 | 炼厂配置 | 套利状态 | 套利值 （美元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 桶） | | | 长期运输安排， | Arab Extra Light | WTI MEH | FCC & HCU（裂 化） | 关闭 | -5.96 | 交付时间标准化 | | 为 | | | | | | 73 天 | | 类似 | Arab Light | WTI MEH | FCC & HCU | 关闭 | -6.58 ...

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第175期) 国家君安期货 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业超额抛售盈余配额;3、未考虑跨行业回购 风险 配额规避结转;4、CCER供应量剧增。 发布日期:2025-10-21 主力标的止跌反弹,单日成交量不足110万吨。 今日 1、CEA:主力标的反弹至40元上方;挂牌44.2万吨,大宗63.1万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量1.30万吨,成交均价57.60元/吨（-6.40%） 建议缺口企业在10月底前分批逢低采购 策略 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 60. 31 | 59.00 | 60.00 | 42. 18 | 41.48 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0. 00% | 0.00% | 8.46% | 7.80% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -1. 31 | 1.00 | -17. 82 | -0. 70 | | 大宗成交 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides daily data on various non - ferrous metals and precious metals on October 22, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin [1] Group 2: Gold - Shanghai Gold (AU) main contract closed at 952.56 yuan/gram, down 41.50 yuan from the previous month; near - month contract closed at 951.62 yuan/gram, down 5.62 yuan. COMEX gold main contract closed at 4138.50 dollars/ounce, down 235.80 dollars; near - month contract closed at 4119.20 dollars/ounce, down 237.40 dollars. London gold spot price was 4222.35 dollars/ounce, up 138.92 dollars. Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price was 990.81 yuan/gram, up 23.64 yuan [1] - Domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) was 5.29 yuan/gram, down 3.72 yuan from the previous month; overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 173.90 dollars/ounce, up 62.85 dollars [1] Group 3: Silver - Shanghai Silver (AG) main contract closed at 11404 yuan/kilogram, down 401 yuan from the previous week; near - month contract closed at 11400 yuan/kilogram, down 398 yuan. COMEX silver main contract closed at 48.16 dollars/ounce, down 3.24 dollars; near - month contract closed at 47.44 dollars/ounce, down 3.73 dollars. London silver spot price was 49.95 dollars/ounce, unchanged. Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price was 11759 yuan/kilogram, up 1765 yuan [1] - Domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was 3 yuan/gram, up 12 yuan from the previous month; overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was 1.39 dollars/ounce, down 50.75 dollars [1] Group 4: Copper - Shanghai Copper (CU) main contract closed at 85420 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; continuous contract closed at 85380 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan. International Copper (BC) main contract and continuous contract both closed at 75960 yuan/ton, with the main contract down 340 yuan and the continuous contract up 920 yuan. LME copper 3M closed at 10658.50 dollars/ton, down 8.50 dollars. COMEX copper main contract closed at 4.95 dollars/pound, down 0.10 dollars [1] - Shanghai copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was - 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was 20 yuan/ton, up 19.72 yuan. LME copper 0 - 3 spread was - 30.22 dollars/ton, down 23.35 dollars [1] - SMM1 electrolytic copper price was down 20 yuan/ton. Regional spot premiums varied, with East China down 20 yuan/ton and Guangdong up 40 yuan/ton. Various spot premiums and warehouse receipts premiums also had different changes [1] - Shanghai copper warehouse receipts inventory was down 1125 tons, international copper warehouse receipts inventory was down 2129 tons, LME copper warehouse receipts inventory was down 25 tons, and COMEX copper warehouse receipts inventory was up 34077 short tons [1] - Copper spot import loss was - 639.04 yuan/ton, 3M import loss was - 58.10 yuan/ton, scrap copper import loss was - 199.68 yuan/ton, and refined - scrap spread was 1059.90 yuan/ton [1] Group 5: Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum (AL) main contract closed at 21045 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; continuous contract closed at 21015 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. Alumina (AO) main contract closed at 2829 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; continuous contract closed at 2799 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. LME aluminum 3M closed at 2796 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars. COMEX aluminum main contract closed at 2728.25 dollars/ton, up 2.50 dollars [1] - Shanghai aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was - 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; alumina monthly spread (A000 - A001) was - 19 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread was - 2.38 dollars/ton, down 1.26 dollars [1] - Regional spot premiums for electrolytic aluminum and alumina varied in different regions. Aluminum ore and alumina prices also had different changes. Guinea CIF was 73 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts inventory was down 2127 tons, alumina warehouse receipts inventory was up 3329 tons, LME aluminum warehouse receipts inventory was down 3000 tons, and COMEX aluminum warehouse receipts inventory was up 34077 tons [1] - Electrolytic aluminum spot import profit was 179.38 yuan/ton, 3M import profit was - 532.98 yuan/ton. Alumina factory profit was - 109.60 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum factory smelting profit was 138.93 yuan/ton [1] Group 6: Zinc - Shanghai Zinc (ZN) main contract closed at 22000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; continuous contract closed at 21985 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. LME zinc 3M closed at 3003 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars [1] - Shanghai zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was 61.05 dollars/ton, up 146.51 dollars [1] - Regional spot premiums for zinc varied in different regions. Refined zinc import prices and warehouse receipt prices also had changes. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 13039 tons, down 457 tons, and LME zinc warehouse receipts inventory was 35300 tons, down 3000 tons [1] - Refined zinc spot import loss was - 4749.93 yuan/ton, 3M import loss was - 192.44 yuan/ton, and refined zinc factory smelting loss was - 114.00 yuan/ton [1] Group 7: Lead - Shanghai Lead (PB) main contract closed at 17160 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; continuous contract closed at 17160 yuan/ton, unchanged. LME lead 3M closed at 1992 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars [1] - Shanghai lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was - 105 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. LME lead 0 - 3 spread was - 39.69 dollars/ton, down 41.78 dollars [1] - Refined lead Shanghai premium was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts inventory was 24977 tons, down 3156 tons, and LME lead warehouse receipts inventory was 244125 tons, down 3175 tons [1] - Refined lead spot import loss was - 186.34 yuan/ton, 3M import loss was - 227.46 yuan/ton, and recycled lead factory smelting profit was 33.90 yuan/ton [1] Group 8: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel (NI) main contract closed at 121380 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; continuous contract closed at 121120 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. Stainless Steel (SS) main contract closed at 12710 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan; continuous contract closed at 12690 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. LME nickel 3M closed at 15200 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars [1] - Shanghai nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 90 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was 5 dollars/ton, down 200 dollars [1] - Regional spot premiums for nickel varied. Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts inventory was 26953 tons, down 73 tons, and stainless steel warehouse receipts inventory was - 243 tons, down 9631 tons. LME nickel warehouse receipts inventory was 250476 tons, up 24042 tons [1] - Refined nickel spot import loss was - 131.40 yuan/ton, 3M import loss was 13.94 yuan/ton. Stainless steel 304/2B (Wuxi) price was 13000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [1] Group 9: Tin - Shanghai Tin (SN) main contract closed at 281680 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; continuous contract closed at 281680 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan. LME tin 3M closed at 35530 dollars/ton, up 235 dollars [1] - Shanghai tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was 50 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. LME tin 0 - 3 spread was - 23 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars [1] - Shanghai tin warehouse receipts inventory was down 77 tons, LME tin warehouse receipts inventory was 2735 tons, up 160 tons. Refined tin spot import profit was 1964.68 yuan/ton, and tin ore processing fee was 12000 yuan/ton [1]

发布日期: 2025-10-21 上涨乏力,EUA暂未突破80欧元关口 敢新 1、一级：拍卖价格78.75欧元/吨(0.97%)，投标覆盖比1.6; 行情 2、二级：EUA期货结算价79.82欧元/吨(0.45%),成交2.53万手(-0.69)。 策略 轻仓逢高沽空 利多:暂无新增。 核心 利空:暂无新增。 其他:欧洲理事会及能源/环境部长会议在本周召开,政治焦点将放在逐步淘汰俄罗斯 逻辑 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第181期) 化石燃料与在COP30前通过气候战略。 40 20 07-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 01-01 01-01 01-01 04-01 10-01 07-01 图表4:欧盟排放配额(EUA)行情信息-期货、现货 期货持仓量(万手) 期货结算价(欧元/吨) 期货成交量(万手) 持仓量 成交量 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-20 增减 涨跌幅 增减 79. 82 -0. 69 2. 53 36. 09 79. 46 0. 45% 0. 00 现货结算价(欧元/吨) 现货成交量(手) 集运碳成本 (美元/TEU) 即期成本 运费占比 成交量 增减 涨跌幅 2 ...

融 期货研 | | | 手磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4607.87 | ↑ 1. 53 | | 5513. 9 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4588. 6 | ↑ 1. 57 | -19.27 | 409. 4 | 29776 | ↑ 4631 | 41688 | ↑ 1009 | | IF2512 | 4577.6 | ↑ 1. 63 | -30. 27 | 1057. 9 | 77133 | 1 5676 | 157558 | 1159 | | IF2603 | 4550. 2 | ↑ 1. 59 | -57.67 | 172. 4 | 12638 | 1 467 | 5618 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On October 21, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to long - position profit - taking. Market participants are focused on Sino - US trade relations. The market expects China, the world's largest buyer, to buy US soybeans again, which has boosted the recent soybean market. US President Donald Trump expects to reach a fair trade agreement with Chinese leaders and hopes China will buy soybeans before the meeting in South Korea next week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia this week to discuss tariffs [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean 1 2601 closed at 4061 yuan/ton during the day session, up 6 (+0.15%), and 4059 yuan/ton at night, down 14 (-0.34%); DCE Bean Meal 2601 closed at 2889 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 (-0.17%), and 2861 yuan/ton at night, down 36 (-1.24%); CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1030.5 cents/bu, down 2.25 (-0.22%); CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 286.4 dollars/short ton, up 1.6 (+0.56%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 43% bean meal is 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton, with various basis levels remaining flat compared to the previous day; in East China, prices in different regions and for different time periods have some changes such as being up 10 or remaining flat compared to the previous day; in South China, prices in some regions and for some time periods are down 20 compared to the previous day [1] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of bean meal was 9.41 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 7.99 million tons per day two trading days ago. The inventory was 104.67 million tons per week two trading days ago, and data for the previous trading day was not available [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal is - 1, and that of bean one is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on October 22, 2025, including the expected performance of stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, and commodity futures [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry has no specific information to provide [7]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held video talks with EU officials and had a phone call with the Dutch economic minister, discussing issues such as export controls and the global supply chain [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table for foreign - funded enterprises, emphasizing the importance of export controls and the stability of the global supply chain [7]. - In the first three quarters, domestic tourism increased by 18% in terms of the number of travelers and 11.5% in terms of spending [8]. - European leaders support a cease - fire negotiation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kōichi Kanasugi, is considering a supplementary budget to address rising prices [8]. - The net financial assets of EU member states have declined [8]. - On October 21, precious metals tumbled, oil prices rose, London base metals mostly increased, the yuan strengthened against the dollar, and the dollar index rose [8][9][10]. 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On October 21, IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed an upward trend, but failed to break through key resistance levels [11][12]. - The A - share market rose strongly on October 21, with over 4600 stocks rising, and the trading volume increased [13]. - Hong Kong stocks rose on October 21, while US stocks were mixed, and European stocks rose slightly [14][15]. - From April to September, investor leverage increased by 32.4%, which may be a risky entry point [15]. - It is expected that in October 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM will have a wide - range and mostly weak oscillation. On October 22, they will oscillate and consolidate [15][17]. Bond Futures - On October 21, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures had a slight upward trend, with the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations and a net capital injection [34]. - It is expected that on October 22, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures will have a wide - range oscillation [36][40]. Precious Metal Futures - On October 21, the gold futures rose during the day but fell sharply at night. It is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly and break new highs, and on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [40][41][42]. - On October 21, the silver futures rose during the day but fell at night. It is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly and break new highs, and on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [49][50]. Commodity Futures - On October 21, copper futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly, and on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [53]. - On October 21, aluminum futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly, and on October 22, it will oscillate and consolidate [59][60]. - On October 21, alumina futures fell slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [63]. - On October 21, rebar futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate widely, and on October 22, it will oscillate and consolidate [67]. - On October 21, hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate and consolidate [70]. - On October 21, iron ore futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate widely, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [74]. - On October 21, coking coal futures fell, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate strongly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [78][79]. - On October 21, glass futures fell, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate widely [82]. - On October 21, soda ash futures fell, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [86]. - On October 21, crude oil futures rose slightly, and it is expected that in October 2025, it will oscillate weakly, and on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [90]. - On October 21, PTA futures rose slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate strongly [95][96]. - On October 21, methanol futures rose slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [98]. - On October 21, soybean meal futures fell slightly, and it is expected that on October 22, it will oscillate weakly [101].