2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 13 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 13 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 15 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：去库格局延续，偏强震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 | 19 | | 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 | 19 | | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 2026年01月23日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 23 日 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | | | 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆涨跌互现，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260123 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节前现货偏强 | 9 | | 生猪：腊八将至，关注预期印证 | 10 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,944 | 涨跌幅 1.27% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,914 | 涨跌幅 -0.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库格局延续，偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 | 6 | | 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 142 ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：市场情绪偏弱，短期价格弱调整 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 786. 5 | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | | 2.5 | 0. 32% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on January 22, 2026, and the trends of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [1][2][3][5] - The report also provides information on macro - news, commodity futures, and stock market performance on January 21, 2026 [6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Information and Trading Tips - EU's new network security policy may exclude Chinese enterprises from the European mobile communication network, and China will take necessary measures to safeguard the rights of Chinese enterprises [6] - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance will set up new duty - free shops at 41 ports, and residents entering from Macau at Hengqin Port can buy duty - free goods worth up to 15,000 yuan [6] - The tax policy for innovative enterprise CDRs during the pilot phase is extended to December 31, 2027, with tax exemptions and preferential policies for individual investors and public funds [6] - The Ministry of Finance will address the issue of abnormally low prices in government procurement starting from February 1, 2026 [6] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will focus on building "good houses" and constructing a new real - estate development model, promoting the spot - housing sales system [7] - The central bank will accelerate the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthen the supervision of payment institutions [7] - The US and NATO have reached an agreement framework on Greenland, and the US will cancel the planned tariff measures on February 1, which has affected the stock and commodity markets [7][8] - Russian President Putin will meet with a US special envoy, and Russia is willing to pay 1 billion US dollars from frozen assets to join the "peace committee" [8] - Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may cut interest rates at least twice later this year [8] 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold rising 1.48% and COMEX silver falling 1.78% [8] - US and Brent crude oil futures rose due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand expectations [9] - Most London base metals rose, with LME tin rising 3.81% and LME lead falling 0.20% [9] - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened, and the dollar index rose [9][10] 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook a. Stock Index Futures - On January 21, 2026, IF2603 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upwards, and closed at 4722.8 points, up 0.41% [10] - IH2603 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly downwards, and closed at 3073.6 points, down 0.01% [11] - IC2603 opened slightly lower, rose after an initial decline, and closed at 8371.0 points, up 1.89% [11] - IM2603 opened slightly lower, rose after an initial decline, and closed at 8231.0 points, up 1.73% [12] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM will be oscillating strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [15] - On January 22, 2026, IF2603 and IH2603 will be strongly oscillating, while IC2603 and IM2603 will be oscillating strongly, with specific resistance and support levels provided [15] b. Gold Futures - On January 21, 2026, AU2604 opened slightly higher, oscillated strongly upwards, and closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram, up 3.69% [30] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of gold futures will be oscillating strongly, reaching new highs, with resistance at 1100.0 - 1200.0 yuan/gram and support at 977.5 - 968.0 yuan/gram [30] - On January 22, 2026, AU2604 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 1101.9 - 1110.0 yuan/gram and support at 1080.0 - 1076.0 yuan/gram [31] c. Silver Futures - On January 21, 2026, AG2604 opened with a large gap up, oscillated and corrected, and closed at 23131 yuan/kg, down 0.11% [34] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of silver futures will be oscillating strongly, reaching new highs, with resistance at 25000 - 28000 yuan/kg and support at 17074 - 16200 yuan/kg [34] - On January 22, 2026, AG2604 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 23400 - 23690 yuan/kg and support at 22638 - 22392 yuan/kg [35] d. Platinum Futures - On January 21, 2026, PT2606 opened with a large gap up, oscillated and corrected, and closed at 628.50 yuan/gram, up 2.49% [41] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of platinum futures will be oscillating strongly, with resistance at 729.5 - 800.0 yuan/gram and support at 541.9 - 512.7 yuan/gram [42] - On January 22, 2026, PT2606 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 646.7 - 660.0 yuan/gram and support at 613.5 - 595.5 yuan/gram [42] e. Copper Futures - On January 21, 2026, CU2603 opened slightly lower, oscillated slightly upwards, and closed at 101280 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [44] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of copper futures will be oscillating strongly, reaching new highs, with resistance at 108000 - 110000 yuan/ton and support at 98200 - 95000 yuan/ton [44] - On January 22, 2026, CU2603 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 101700 - 102000 yuan/ton and support at 99700 - 99000 yuan/ton [44] f. Aluminum Futures - On January 21, 2026, AL2603 opened slightly higher, oscillated upwards, and closed at 24155 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [49] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of aluminum futures will be oscillating strongly, reaching new highs, with resistance at 25500 - 27000 yuan/ton and support at 23030 - 22920 yuan/ton [49] - On January 22, 2026, AL2603 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 24250 - 24450 yuan/ton and support at 23740 - 23660 yuan/ton [49] g. Nickel Futures - On January 21, 2026, NI2602 opened slightly higher, oscillated upwards, and closed at 143060 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [53] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of nickel futures will be oscillating strongly, with resistance at 151200 - 160500 yuan/ton and support at 130300 - 121000 yuan/ton [53] - On January 22, 2026, NI2602 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 144100 - 146800 yuan/ton and support at 140400 - 137600 yuan/ton [53] h. Tin Futures - On January 21, 2026, SN2602 opened with a gap up, oscillated strongly upwards, and closed at 418420 yuan/ton, up 5.79% [59] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of tin futures will be oscillating strongly, reaching new highs, with resistance at 450000 - 460000 yuan/ton and support at 322900 - 316700 yuan/ton [59] - On January 22, 2026, SN2603 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 424500 - 431600 yuan/ton and support at 403000 - 390300 yuan/ton [59] i. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 21, 2026, LC2605 opened slightly higher, oscillated strongly upwards, and closed at 166740 yuan/ton, up 7.26% [64] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures will be oscillating strongly, with resistance at 170900 - 205700 yuan/ton and support at 120000 - 115400 yuan/ton [64] - On January 22, 2026, LC2605 will be oscillating strongly, with resistance at 174100 - 180000 yuan/ton and support at 166700 - 164600 yuan/ton [64] j. Rebar Futures - On January 21, 2026, RB2605 opened flat, oscillated slightly upwards, and closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [68] - It is expected that in January 2026, RB2605 will be widely oscillating, with resistance at 3242 - 3347 yuan/ton and support at 3031 - 3006 yuan/ton [68] - On January 22, 2026, RB2605 will be strongly oscillating, with resistance at 3128 - 3137 yuan/ton and support at 3111 - 3104 yuan/ton [68] k. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On January 21, 2026, HC2605 opened slightly higher, oscillated slightly upwards, and closed at 3286 yuan/ton, down 0.06% [72] - On January 22, 2026, HC2605 will be strongly oscillating, with resistance at 3297 - 3307 yuan/ton and support at 3277 - 3271 yuan/ton [72] l. Iron Ore Futures - On January 21, 2026, I2605 opened flat, oscillated downwards, and closed at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [74] - It is expected that in January 2026, I2605 will be widely oscillating, with resistance at 831 - 857 yuan/ton and support at 767 - 748 yuan/ton [74] - On January 22, 2026, I2605 will be oscillating and consolidating, with resistance at 791 - 798 yuan/ton and support at 779 - 775 yuan/ton [74] m. Coking Coal Futures - On January 21, 2026, JM2605 opened slightly higher, oscillated slightly upwards, and closed at 1129.0 yuan/ton, down 1.83% [78] - It is expected that in January 2026, JM2605 will be widely oscillating, with resistance at 1288 - 1385 yuan/ton and support at 1070 - 1022 yuan/ton [78] - On January 22, 2026, JM2605 will be weakly oscillating, with resistance at 1140 - 1152 yuan/ton and support at 1107 - 1099 yuan/ton [78] n. Glass Futures - On January 21, 2026, FG605 opened flat, oscillated downwards, and closed at 1039 yuan/ton, down 2.35% [82] - It is expected that in January 2026, FG605 will be weakly and widely oscillating, with resistance at 1174 - 1225 yuan/ton and support at 1069 - 1015 yuan/ton [82] - On January 22, 2026, FG605 will be strongly oscillating, with resistance at 1061 - 1070 yuan/ton and support at 1035 - 1028 yuan/ton [82] o. Soda Ash Futures - On January 21, 2026, SA605 opened slightly lower, oscillated downwards, and closed at 1163 yuan/ton, down 1.61% [88] - It is expected that in January 2026, SA605 will be weakly and widely oscillating, with resistance at 1288 - 1339 yuan/ton and support at 1123 - 1118 yuan/ton [88] - On January 22, 2026, SA605 will be strongly oscillating, with resistance at 1182 - 1192 yuan/ton and support at 1160 - 1152 yuan/ton [88]

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 22 日 对二甲苯：伊朗局势紧张，油价反弹支撑 PX 估值 PTA：做缩加工费 MEG：下方空间有限 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7206 | 5154 | 3689 | 6496 | 440.8 | | 涨跌 | -26 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 3.8 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.36% | 0.19% | 0.41% | 0.03% | 0.87% | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | 昨日收盘价 | 42 | 44 | -117 | -40 | -0.6 | | 前日收盘价 | 60 | 52 | -107 | -42 | -1.9 | | 涨跌 | -18 | -8 | -10 | 2 | 1.3 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive: LPG, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Propylene (LPG and Propylene are mentioned together, and Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil are also related) [47][57] - Negative: LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, PVC, Soda Ash [17][20][25][32][55][45] - Neutral: PX, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Container Freight Index (Europe Line) [7][8][9][12][28][38][41][42][77][80][85] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical futures on January 22, 2026, including factors such as supply - demand, price trends, and geopolitical impacts. For example, the tension in the Iran situation affects the oil price, which in turn impacts PX and other related products. The market trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Expected to open higher due to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on oil prices. The supply is loose, and the downstream PTA device maintenance leads to a gradual increase in supply. It is recommended to pay attention to hedging operations such as long PX short PTA [7] - **PTA**: The valuation is supported by the rebound of oil prices. It is recommended to focus on reducing processing fees. The future supply - demand is weak, and it turns into a state of inventory accumulation [8] - **MEG**: The valuation below 3600 has support, showing a range - bound market. The port inventory accumulation pressure increases, and the supply is still relatively high [8] Rubber - The rubber market is in a state of shock operation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the downstream production and sales are under pressure. The total supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening [9][11] Synthetic Rubber - The butadiene price stabilizes, and the futures price rebounds. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased, and the butadiene port inventory has decreased significantly [12][13] LLDPE - In December, the import exceeded expectations, and the upstream quotation loosened. The supply pressure exists in the medium - term due to high production capacity and weakening demand [15][16] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost is high, the demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [18][19] Caustic Soda - The price continues to decline due to cost reduction and supply - demand collapse. There is a pressure to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, and the far - month contract may face cost increase and supply reduction [22][23] Pulp - The pulp market is in a state of shock operation. The demand is weak, the port inventory pressure exists, and it is recommended to pay attention to factors such as the stability of the futures market and the downstream procurement willingness [28][29] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market trading atmosphere is not strong, and the downstream procurement demand is limited [32] Methanol - The methanol market is expected to be in a shock operation. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and the cost provides certain support [37][38] Urea - The urea market is in a state of shock adjustment with support at the bottom. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the medium - term [39][40][41] Styrene - The styrene market shows a strong - shock trend. The export exceeds expectations, the downstream replenishment cycle starts, and the market rebounds [42][43] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [45] LPG, Propylene - The LPG market is supported by heating demand, and the PG trend is strong. The propylene spot maintains a tight balance [47] PVC - The PVC market is in a weak - shock state. The supply is sufficient, the demand is in the off - season, and the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [54][55] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is short - term strong with increasing fluctuations. The low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [57] Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - The container freight index (Europe Line) is in a temporary shock market. The impact of geopolitical factors, supply - demand changes, and policy adjustments on the market should be considered [59][70][71][72] Short - fiber, Bottle - chip - Both the short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are in a short - term shock state. The short - fiber processing fee is at a low level, and the bottle - chip market has a certain trading atmosphere [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market is recommended to be on the sidelines. The price is stable, the new orders in the market are limited, and the dealer inventory reduction is slow [80][81] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market shows a strong - shock trend. The port inventory has decreased, and the market transaction is good due to the impact of the unexpected shutdown of related factories [85][86]

2026 年 1 月 22 日 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：豆类市场氛围好转，盘面或震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 国 泰 君 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4338 | +16（+0.37%） | 4310 +8（+0.19%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2736 | +8（+0.29%） | +10（+0.37%） 2737 | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1065 | +12 （+1.14%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 291.5 | +0（+0.00%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3120～3130， | 较昨-10至持平； | 现 ...

锡基本面数据 2026 年 1 月 22 日 锡：关注缅甸复产 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 tangwenhao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锡主力合约 伦锡3M电子盘 | | 418.420 51. 295 | 4.87% 3.31% | 406. 500 | -2.85% | | 期货 | | | | | | | 及现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 沪锡主力合约 货电 | | 281.963 | 34. 327 | 22.979 | -848 | | 伦锡3M电子盘 子盘 | | 790 | -410 | 23.548 | -744 | | | 昨日期货库存 | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪锡 | | 8.668 | -192 | l | l | | ...

商 品 研 究 钯：金银回调，上方承压 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 628. 50 | | 1. 48% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 627.56 | | 2. 45% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2478. 80 | | -0. 05% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2475. 00 | | 0. 96% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 485. 80 | | -0. 86% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 443. 00 | | 0. 91% | | | 价格 | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.874.50 | | -1.78% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1.841.00 | | -1.87% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | ...