1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE futures have continued to decline, with the upstream conducting low - price pre - sales and the mid - and downstream replenishing short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but after the decline in the futures market, trading has weakened significantly, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6640, with a daily decline of 0.40%. The trading volume was 442,747, and the position increased by 9,748 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was - 110 (compared to - 97 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 24 (unchanged from the day before) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price yesterday was 6,530 yuan/ton (compared to 6,570 the day before); in East China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,720 the day before); in South China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,800 the day before) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market has continued to decline. The upstream has carried out low - price pre - sales, and the mid - and downstream have replenished short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth, and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but trading has weakened significantly after the decline in the futures market, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - PP production remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6461, with a daily decline of 0.32%. The trading volume was 358,242, and the open interest decreased by 4,253. The 05 contract basis was -131, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -31 [1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of Beihua, Donghua, and South China remained stable at 6300 yuan/ton, 6330 yuan/ton, and 6450 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price declined, the upstream pre - sale pressure was not large, and traders mainly focused on overall sales. The basis was stable, and the trading atmosphere weakened significantly in the second half of last week. The year - end demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable. The number of warehouse receipts remains high. The PP US dollar market price is stable, and the trading is difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost End**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The valuation of PE in terms of internal and external and upstream profit is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply End**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game of existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand End**: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries has weakened, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [2]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-21 所长 早读 地缘风险带来市场不确定性 观点分享： 昨日市场仍出现了非常剧烈的波动，日债暴跌叠加格林兰岛的地缘冲突最终导致欧美股 债汇三杀，vix 指数飙升，贵金属再创历史新高。昨日市场对日债长债出现了非常明显的抛 售，日本提前选举预期、扩张性财政叙事、寿险资金持续减持、以及疲弱的超长期国债拍卖 互相叠加踩踏，最终导致了市场疯狂的对于日本长债的抛售，日本 40 年期长债收益率历史 性突破 4%，20 年、30 年债收益率单日飙升逾 20 个基点，在这种环境下，日债的税率飙升 直接带崩了欧洲和美国，日本作为全球最大美债持有国之一，长端利率失控的风险外溢让全 球市场都出现了巨大的震动，长端美债也遭受了抛售潮，10 年期美债收益率攀升 8 个基点至 4.293%，欧债方面德债和法债也都均出现了长端收益率的上行。债券长端收益率飙升的风险 外溢，也导致了大量股票被抛售，昨晚欧股及美股均出现不同幅度下跌，市场的恐慌情绪叠 加美国对于格林兰岛武力控制威胁和欧洲议会的反击，最终导致了市场的股债汇三 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The container shipping index (European route) is currently in a temporary consolidation phase, influenced by factors such as the accelerating decline of spot prices and the uncertainty in geopolitical situations. The market is affected by different factors in terms of supply (capacity), demand, and geopolitical risks, leading to different outlooks for various contracts. [1][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European route) showed weak consolidation. The main contract 2604 closed at 1112.6 points, with a 77 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 1.44%. The secondary main contract 2606 closed at 1317.4 points, with a 273 - hand reduction in positions and a decline of 0.33%. [1][9] 3.2 Capacity Analysis - The shipping schedules on the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January were generally delayed. After adjustment, the capacity statistics for the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics for February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. Overall, the capacity from 1/26 - 3/1 remained unchanged. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending sailing. The weekly average capacity was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. [10] - The Spring Festival suspension of shipping was mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 TEU, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively. The capacity pressure after the festival was relatively higher. [10] 3.3 Geopolitical Situation - The instability in Iran has increased, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the East Coast of the United States and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans. After the market closed yesterday, CMA CGM decided to divert east - bound vessels on the FAL1, FAL3, and MEX routes around the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal. [11] 3.4 Demand Side - On January 8, 2026, China adjusted the export VAT rebate policy. The export rebate for photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled from April 1, 2026, and the export rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and completely cancelled from January 1, 2027. This may lead to 2 - 5 TEU of transportation demand for European routes and 4 - 7 TEU for European - Mediterranean routes being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush for shipping is expected to occur from late February to March. However, it is unlikely to change the oversupply situation in March. [12] 3.5 Spot Freight Rates - The FAK average in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. The Maersk's European base container prices in the 5th and 6th weeks decreased by about $700/FEU in total. Different alliances and shipping companies also had varying degrees of price adjustments. [13] 3.6 Contract Analysis - For the 2602 contract, the valuation may be around 1700 points, and it is expected to have narrow - range position - reducing fluctuations in the future. - For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal positive impact from the rush of photovoltaic and battery product shipments in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April. It is recommended to consider rolling short positions in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points. - For the 2606 contract, the short - term influencing factor is the resumption rhythm. If it fails to resume in June, it may be a relatively good long - position contract. It may have a small premium in the short - term and remain in a consolidation phase in the medium - term. It should be treated with a wide - range consolidation strategy. - For the 2610 contract, the upper pressure level refers to the settlement price of 1161 points for the 2510 contract. Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the peace negotiations in Gaza and the geopolitical situation in Iran. [14][15] 3.7 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral position. [15]

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 | 2 | | 玉米：有所回调 | 4 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 5 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260121 | 6 | | 鸡蛋：情绪转弱 | 8 | | 生猪：现货转弱，旺季预期降低 | 9 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4338 +16（+0.37%） | 42 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 20, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined, with IF down 0.44%, IH down 0.1%, IC down 0.49%, and IM down 0.98% [1] - The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 9467 lots, 2195 lots, 47043 lots, and 39473 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 2594 lots, 135 lots, 18737 lots, and 8203 lots respectively [1][2] - A - share market was in shock adjustment, with the market style switching from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.01% at 4113.65 points, and other major indices also showed declines [7] - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.29% at 26487.51 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.16% [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of different IF contracts (IF2602 - IF2609) all declined, with the decline ranging from 0.25% to 0.44%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, and the net increase in long positions of some contracts was significant [1][5] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of different IH contracts (IH2602 - IH2609) also declined, with the decline ranging from 0.10% to 0.17%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the net increase in long and short positions of some contracts was notable [1][5] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of different IC contracts (IC2602 - IC2609) decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.15% to 0.49%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, and the net increase in long positions of some contracts was large [1][5] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of different IM contracts (IM2602 - IM2609) dropped, with the decline ranging from 0.91% to 1.03%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, and the net increase in long positions of some contracts was significant [1][5] 3.2 Market Environment and Policy - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a package of five fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand, including policies to boost consumption and support private investment. The small and medium - sized enterprise loan discount policy focuses on 14 key industrial chains [6][7] - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels. Special ultra - long - term treasury bonds will continue to be issued, and the management of the negative list of special bond projects will be improved [7]

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关税预期波动 | 2 | | 铜：市场避险，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：下方有支撑 | 10 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：补涨行情或许发动 | 12 | | 钯：震荡向上 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore prices are weakening, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises [2][5]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing weak fluctuations due to disturbances in the raw material market [2][10]. - The cost expectation of ferrosilicon is rising, and it is in wide-range fluctuations; the demand-side expectation of silicomanganese is tightening, and it is also in wide-range fluctuations [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing weak fluctuations [2][17]. - The market sentiment of thermal coal is weak, and the price will have a short-term weak adjustment [21]. - Logs are in a weak and volatile state [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The positions decreased by 29,929 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, with a maximum drop of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the 1-year and 5-year LPR remained unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.18%; the HC2605 was 3,276 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 0.97%. Spot prices in most regions declined, with a maximum drop of 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: BHP's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant, affecting production. Steel production, inventory, and demand data for January 15 and December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,552 yuan/ton and 5,528 yuan/ton respectively, with the former up 4 yuan and the latter down 8 yuan. The silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,760 yuan/ton and 5,798 yuan/ton respectively, both down [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore increased by 12.04% year-on-year, and the import volume in December increased significantly. The export volume of ferrosilicon to various regions in 2025 was announced, and some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan or 4.3%; the J2605 coke contract was 1,673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan or 2.8%. Spot prices were mostly stable [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index was announced, and the coking coal online auction on January 19 had a low failure rate and mostly rising prices [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different degrees of decline. The January long - term agreement prices also decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the national raw coal production increased month - on - month, and the annual output reached a new high. The coal import volume in December far exceeded expectations, and Indonesia's expected coal production quota in 2026 will be tightened [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts all declined, with daily declines of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively. The prices of most log varieties in the spot market remained stable [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog comprehensive PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、日本财相呼吁债市恢复冷静，美国财长贝森特称日债抛售潮外溢至美债并表示已就此问题与日方 沟通。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,056.94 | 0.77% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 1,055.99 | 1.03% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4769.10 | #N/A | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 23112 | -0.57% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | ...

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供给扰动，偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：商品情绪回落，逢高布空思路 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,360 | -960 | 2,910 | 1,560 | 24,18 ...