Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the sugar market, covering price data, macro and industry news, and production, consumption, and import forecasts in domestic and international markets [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Sugar Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 16.09 cents/pound, down 0.16 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5697 yuan/ton, down 21 [1] - The 91 spread is 59 yuan/ton, down 23; the 15 spread is 64 yuan/ton, up 2; the mainstream spot basis is 293 yuan/ton, up 21 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that the sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] 3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of June in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.51 million tons (-650,000 tons) [2] 4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously forecasted a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [3] - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 15.66 million tons (-1.59 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [3] - In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] 5. Sugar Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil had a narrow - range adjustment during the night session, with a short - term oscillating trend [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil was weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market declined again [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For FU2509, the closing price was 2,842 yuan/ton, down 0.14%, and the settlement price was 2,818 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [1]. - For FU2510, the closing price was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, and the settlement price was 2,839 yuan/ton, down 1.73% [1]. - For LU2509, the closing price was 3,562 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the settlement price was 3,544 yuan/ton, down 0.78% [1]. - For LU2510, the closing price was 3,560 yuan/ton, down 0.78%, and the settlement price was 3,539 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 333,121 lots, a decrease of 183,814 lots, and the open interest was 137,503 lots, a decrease of 4,374 lots [1]. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 144,527 lots, a decrease of 16,999 lots, and the open interest was 80,705 lots, a decrease of 1,103 lots [1]. - The trading volume of LU2509 was 3,561 lots, a decrease of 4,868 lots, and the open interest was 9,868 lots, a decrease of 792 lots [1]. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 86,813 lots, a decrease of 22,368 lots, and the open interest was 51,179 lots, a decrease of 1,869 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the whole market were 110,980, and for low - sulfur fuel oil were 40,050, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 406.4 dollars/ton, up 0.47%, and (0.5%S) was 498.8 dollars/ton, down 0.19% [1]. - Singapore Bunker (3.5%S) was 419.0 dollars/ton, up 0.72%, and (0.5%S) was 511.0 dollars/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Other spot prices in different regions also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU09 - 10 was - 21 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the settlement spread [1]. - The spread of LU09 - 10 was 2 yuan/ton, compared to the settlement spread of 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread of LU09 - FU09 was 720 yuan/ton, compared to the settlement spread of 726 yuan/ton [1]. - Other price spreads also had corresponding changes, such as the spread between futures and spot prices and the spread between different sulfur - content products [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil was 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil was also 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene markets, with the date of August 6, 2025 [1] - The cost support for LPG is weak, and the supply - demand pattern of propylene is loose, showing short - term weak and volatile trends [1] Group 2: Futures Price, Position, and Spread Futures Price - PG2509 closed at 3,845 yesterday with a - 1.31% daily increase, and 3,829 at night with a - 0.42% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,281 yesterday with a - 0.65% daily increase, and 4,308 at night with a 0.63% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,512 yesterday with a 0.48% daily increase, and 6,476 at night with a - 0.55% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,571 yesterday with a 0.52% daily increase, and 6,542 at night with a - 0.44% increase [2] Position and Transaction Volume - For PG2509, the yesterday's trading volume was 94,257 (an increase of 1,692), and the night - trading position was 101,941 (an increase of 5,819); for PG2510, the yesterday's trading volume was 33,586 (an increase of 1,922), and the night - trading position was 78,899 (an increase of 8,017); for PL2601, the yesterday's trading volume was 1,971 (a decrease of 166), and the night - trading position was 4,461 (a decrease of 25); for PL2602, the yesterday's trading volume was 104 (a decrease of 91), and the night - trading position was 968 (a decrease of 49) [2] Spread - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 505 yesterday (454 the day before); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 495 yesterday (484 the day before); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 337 yesterday (- 321 the day before); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 212 yesterday (- 156 the day before); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 287 yesterday (- 156 the day before) [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 72.6% (73.1% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 67.8% (69.0% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 49.7% (46.2% last week) [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10] Group 5: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On August 4, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 516 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 486 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 532 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 502 dollars/ton, down 9 dollars/ton [11] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined [12] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many production enterprises have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Heavy Oil with a 60 - day whole - plant maintenance from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025 [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil and paying attention to US sanctions on Russian energy [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.13 per barrel, a decline of 1.70%, at $65.16 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $1.12 per barrel, a decline of 1.63%, at $67.64 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.30%, at 502.50 yuan per barrel [1]. Market News - Russia is considering an aerial cease - fire but will not agree to a full cease - fire [2]. - Trump said if energy prices drop low enough, Putin will stop the conflict. He will decide whether to sanction countries buying Russian energy after a meeting in Witkov on Wednesday. There is a high possibility of imposing a 100% tariff on Russian oil, but the result is undetermined [2]. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 1 was - 4233000 barrels, compared with an expected - 1845000 barrels and a previous value of 1539000 barrels. API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and heating oil inventory also had corresponding changes [2]. - The CEO of Bank of America said their economists expect the US economy to grow about 1% - 1.5% this year [2]. - Trump will "significantly" raise tariffs on Indian imports in the next 24 hours due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, with the current tariff rate at 25% [2]. - Eurozone's July composite PMI rose from 50.6 in June to 50.9, slightly lower than the initial estimate of 51.0, still indicating economic weakness. The service - sector PMI climbed from 50.5 in June to 51.0 [2]. - Dutch International Bank believes OPEC+ may end production increases [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] and a classification of weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, strong, where - 2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [4].

2025年08月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，低位布多为主 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆冲高回落，连粕跟随回落 | 4 | | 豆一：跟随豆类，回落震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：弱势运行 | 6 | | 白糖：印度恢复性增产 | 7 | | 棉花：注意外部市场影响 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货看涨预期落空 | 9 | | 生猪：近端现货压力略超预期 | 10 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪反复，低位布多为主 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易协议 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,064 | 涨跌幅 2.56% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,996 | 涨跌幅 -0.75% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not mentioned - Core View: The report analyzes the July stock index basis market. In the short - term, the risk preference in the futures market has declined, and the short - side power has increased marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, the index is expected to rise and the discount to converge this year, but the subsequent upward momentum may weaken, and the discount convergence may slow down [5][22] Group 2: Recent Basis Review - Market Trends: In July, the market revolved around domestic and overseas mainlines. Domestically, the "anti - involution" concept boosted the market, which then cooled down. Overseas, the US tariff negotiations affected the dollar index and domestic assets. The market sentiment was mainly optimistic, with high trading volume and continuous inflow of leveraged funds. Most broad - based indices had strong monthly lines, and small - and micro - cap stocks were still strong, while large - cap indices were dragged down by the banking sector [5][6] - Basis Changes: By July 31, 2025, the quarterly contract annualized basis rates of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 1.19%, - 2.02%, - 9.65%, and - 11.6% respectively. IH, IF, and IC were basically flat compared to the end of last month, and the IM discount slightly converged. The basis support weakened in July, and the basis turned down earlier than the index. The intraday 1 - minute frequency basis divergence among varieties increased, indicating a decline in risk preference [8][15] - Product - side Situation: Index - related products saw net outflows, with the scale of four broad - based index ETFs and A500ETF and index - enhanced products declining. The new issuance of index - enhanced products continued. The positions of private - equity neutral strategies increased, and the short - side power strengthened marginally. The CTA strategy maintained a relatively high net long position in stock index futures and was optimistic about the index and futures [17][18] - Strategy Performance: In July, the excess return of long - side substitution relative to the index was about 1%. The short - side hedging cost of IC and IM current - month contracts was lower than that of quarterly contracts by about 0.5%. The inter - period spread was affected by contract roll - over and declined at the end of the month [21] Group 3: Long - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM long - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 3.6%, 0.5%, 1.5%, and - 4.6% respectively [26] Group 4: Short - side Roll - over Performance Review - Performance Data: As of July 2025, the annualized excess returns of IF, IH, IC, and IM short - side roll - over strategies in the past 250 trading days were - 0.5%, - 0.3%, 2.0%, and - 0.1% respectively [33]

Report Summary Core View The stock index options showed an upward movement with a decreasing volatility, and the implied volatility premium narrowed [1]. Market Data Summary Underlying Market Statistics - **Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2790.73, up 21.34 points, with a trading volume of 41.26 billion hands, a decrease of 0.70 billion hands. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4103.45, up 32.75 points, with a trading volume of 178.85 billion hands, an increase of 16.58 billion hands. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6787.48, up 47.79 points, with a trading volume of 223.72 billion hands, an increase of 10.23 billion hands [2]. - **ETFs**: The Shanghai Composite 50 ETF closed at 2.912, up 0.022, with a trading volume of 7.24 billion hands, an increase of 2.44 billion hands. The Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF closed at 4.183, up 0.031, with a trading volume of 5.48 billion hands, an increase of 1.13 billion hands [2]. Option Market Statistics - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options was 30,577, an increase of 280, and the open interest was 72,824, a decrease of 1,212. The trading volume of CSI 300 Index Options was 78,143, an increase of 5,831, and the open interest was 205,892, an increase of 668 [2]. - **Volatility and PCR**: The ATM-IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options was 11.59%, a decrease of 0.57%, and the VL-PCR was 48.61%, and the OI-PCR was 57.04%. The ATM-IV of CSI 300 Index Options was 11.16%, a decrease of 1.41%, and the VL-PCR was 52.69%, and the OI-PCR was 70.72% [2][5]. Individual Option Analysis The report provides detailed analysis and charts for various options, including Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, CSI 1000 Index Options, and multiple ETF options, covering aspects such as PCR, skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [8][12][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Building an effective timing factor framework for Shanghai copper futures can identify price trend turning points through quantitative means, providing a scientific basis for trading decisions and helping investors capture excess returns. The framework includes 14 fundamental and macro - quantitative factors and 7 volume - price factors. After back - testing and screening, factors are combined equally weighted to output trend strength signals. The fundamental and volume - price factors have low correlation, and investors can adjust the proportion of the two types of factors according to their target returns and risk requirements [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Shanghai Copper Single Commodity Timing Factor Framework - The model divides factors into fundamental and macro - quantitative factors and volume - price factors. Fundamental factors are constructed from dimensions such as inventory, basis, upstream inventory, profit, spread, and macro - indicators, while volume - price factors are constructed from dimensions such as momentum, moving averages, trading volume, price - volume correlation, and technical indicators [6]. - The model currently contains 14 fundamental and macro - quantitative factors and 7 volume - price factors, with specific factor names provided [8]. - Back - testing and screening settings: Fundamental factors are back - tested from January 2016, volume - price factors from January 2010, and out - of - sample back - testing from January 2022 to December 2024. Other settings include unified bilateral commission of 0.03%, 1 - fold leverage, cumulative return calculation, factor value mapping to 0, 1, - 1, and more [9][10][11]. 3.2 Introduction and Back - testing Results of Shanghai Copper Fundamental Quantitative Factors - **Processing Profit**: Low processing profit may reduce supply and pressure prices, while high profit may increase supply and support prices. From 2020, its back - tested annualized return is 23.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.94 [17]. - **Downstream Processing Fee**: Rising fees may increase demand and push up prices, while falling fees may reduce demand and prices. From 2021, its back - tested annualized return is 10.5%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.66 [19]. - **Cathode Copper Inventory**: Rising inventory indicates supply surplus and may pressure prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 17.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.62 [21]. - **Basis**: Expanding basis may indicate supply shortage, while narrowing basis may indicate supply surplus. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 17.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.71 [23]. - **Social Inventory**: Similar to cathode copper inventory, rising social inventory may pressure prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 15.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.6 [25]. - **LME Electrolytic Copper Inventory**: An important external market inventory factor. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 21.8%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.99 [27]. - **Futures Inventory**: Similar to the logic of warehouse receipts. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 19.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.73 [30]. - **Comex Copper Inventory**: Different from other inventory factors, more inventory indicates stronger buying sentiment. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 15.3%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.26 [32]. - **Scrap Copper Spread**: Widening spread may suppress refined copper prices, while narrowing spread may support prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 7.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.86 [34]. - **Imported Copper Concentrate Index (TC)**: Higher TC may increase supply and pressure prices, while lower TC may reduce supply and support prices. From 2020, its back - tested annualized return is 18.8%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.43 [36]. - **CFTC Non - Commercial Position**: Net long position has a positive predictive effect on prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 11.0%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.79 [38]. - **US Dollar Index**: Rising dollar index may suppress copper prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 8.0%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.71 [40]. - **VIX Index**: Copper prices are mostly negatively correlated with the VIX index. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 11.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.02 [42]. - **US Manufacturing PMI**: As a leading economic indicator, it affects copper prices. From 2016, its back - tested annualized return is 15.3%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.32 [44]. - **Fundamental Multi - Factor**: Combining the first 4 fundamental single factors equally weighted, from 2016, the back - tested annualized return is 33.5%, with a Sharpe ratio of 4.0 [46]. 3.3 Introduction and Back - testing Results of Shanghai Copper Volume - Price Factors - **Intraday Momentum**: A larger value indicates a stronger upward momentum. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 8.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.3 [48]. - **Median Double Moving Averages**: Short - term moving average crossing above the long - term moving average is a buy signal, and vice versa. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 10.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.92 [50]. - **Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA)**: Calculated through efficiency coefficient and smoothing constant. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 7.2%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.56 [52][53]. - **On - Balance Volume (OBV)**: Calculated based on price and volume, and a long - short double moving average strategy is constructed. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 8.9%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 [55][56]. - **Price - Volume Correlation**: Stronger correlation is more likely to form a trending market. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 7.3%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.63 [61]. - **Rebound Momentum**: Calculated based on the difference between closing price and low price, and high price and low price. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 11.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.93 [61]. - **TRIX**: A long - short double moving average strategy is constructed based on the daily change rate of EX3. From 2010, its back - tested annualized return is 12.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.16 [63][66]. - **Volume - Price Multi - Factor**: Combining the first 7 volume - price single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 13.5%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.32 [68]. 3.4 Comprehensive Model of Fundamental Quantification and Volume - Price Multi - Factors - **All - Factor Combined Long - Short Model**: Combining all single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 18.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.53 [70]. - **Long - Only Model**: - Fundamental long - only model: Combining the first 14 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 8.0%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.51 [72]. - Volume - price long - only model: Combining the last 7 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 7.4%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.82 [73]. - All - factor comprehensive long - only model: Combining all single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 10.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.92 [76]. - **Short - Only Model**: - Fundamental short - only model: Combining the first 14 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 7.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 [77]. - Volume - price short - only model: Combining the last 7 single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 5.1%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.55 [79]. - All - factor comprehensive short - only model: Combining all single factors equally weighted, from 2010, the back - tested annualized return is 7.7%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.85 [81]. - The long - only and short - only models can help enterprises with timing hedging. The comprehensive model of factors is relatively stable in different years, and investors can adjust the proportion of fundamental and volume - price factors according to their target returns and risks [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 5, 2025, including the bias towards strong or weak oscillations, and provides resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 4, 2025, the stock index futures IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly lower and then rising. The broader market also opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext 50 leading the gains. A - share trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The number of new A - share accounts in July increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Brokerage institutions are generally optimistic about the market outlook [13][15][16]. - On August 4, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures both opened higher, with the ten - year showing a slight upward trend and the thirty - year continuing to rebound. The central bank conducted 5448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 490 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, reaching a new high in July [35][39][40]. - On August 4, 2025, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.85% and COMEX silver futures up 1.40%. International oil prices fluctuated downward, with the U.S. oil main contract down 1.62% and the Brent crude main contract down 1.38%. London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 0.99%, LME copper up 0.81%, and LME nickel up 0.79%. The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index also rose slightly [9][10][12]. 2. Futures Market Forecast for August 5, 2025 Stock Index Futures - IF2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 4087 and 4100 points and support levels at 4052 and 4035 points [2]. - IH2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 2785 and 2800 points and support levels at 2770 and 2763 points [2]. - IC2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6215 and 6275 points and support levels at 6169 and 6130 points [2]. - IM2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6700 and 6750 points and support levels at 6642 and 6590 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 108.60 and 108.65 yuan and support levels at 108.43 and 108.37 yuan [2]. - The thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 119.6 and 120.0 yuan, with support levels at 119.1 and 118.9 yuan [2]. Precious Metal Futures - The gold futures AU2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 786.8 and 791.2 yuan/gram, with support levels at 781.8 and 778.5 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures AG2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 9100 and 9166 yuan/kg, with support levels at 9008 and 8985 yuan/kg [3]. Base Metal Futures - The copper futures CU2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78200 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78600 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum futures AL2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 20370 and 20300 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 20540 and 20600 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures AO2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 3162 and 3121 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3247 and 3274 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures ZN2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 22350 and 22420 yuan/ton and support levels at 22220 and 22130 yuan/ton [3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The industrial silicon futures SI2511 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 8220 and 8100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 8450 and 8500 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures PS2511 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support levels at 47700 and 47100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 49400 and 50400 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures LC2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range, with support levels at 67900 and 66900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 71100 and 72200 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar futures RB2510 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 3174 and 3160 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 3224 and 3236 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures HC2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 3449 and 3473 yuan/ton and support levels at 3400 and 3366 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 800 and 804 yuan/ton, with support levels at 790 and 787 yuan/ton [4]. - The coking coal futures JM2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1120 and 1092 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1166 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - The glass futures FG509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1050 and 1032 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1102 and 1112 yuan/ton [4]. - The soda ash futures SA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1225 and 1206 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1265 and 1285 yuan/ton [6]. - The crude oil futures SC2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 514 and 519 yuan/barrel [6]. - The PTA futures TA509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 4698 and 4720 yuan/ton [6]. - The PVC futures V2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4922 and 4900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 5020 and 5046 yuan/ton [6]. - The methanol futures MA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 2372 and 2359 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2385 and 2393 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Futures - The soybean meal futures M2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 3050 and 3071 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3014 and 3000 yuan/ton [6]. - The palm oil futures P2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 8926 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 8800 and 8770 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Macro - economic Information - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For overseas remittances over 5000 yuan or the equivalent of 1000 US dollars, the remitter's identity needs to be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards over 10,000 yuan at one time [7]. - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, the MLF had a net investment of 100 billion yuan, the PSL had a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, the short - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 188 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net investment of 200 billion yuan. There were no open - market treasury bond transactions in July [7]. - In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%, and imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [7]. - Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. Wang Qing believes that the new social financing in July will be about 1.7 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale year - on - year increase from the previous month. It is expected that the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements again around the end of the third quarter [8]. - Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, focusing on areas such as urban transportation and medical health, and exploring the opening of application demonstration scenarios [8]. - Shanghai has issued policies to support enterprises in basic research, with a maximum one - time subsidy of 10 million yuan and tax incentives for basic research [8]. - Hainan has proposed 20 specific measures to accelerate the cultivation of three future industries: seed industry, deep - sea, and aerospace, and to strengthen tropical characteristic high - efficiency agriculture. The goal is that by 2027, the added value of the four leading industries will account for about 70% of GDP [8]. - U.S. President Trump said that India is reselling a large amount of Russian oil in the open market for huge profits and will significantly increase the tariffs imposed on India [9]. - The EU will suspend the implementation of the tariff counter - measures against the U.S. that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 for six months and continue to cooperate with the U.S. to finalize a joint statement on trade [9]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts within the year are still an appropriate adjustment [9].

2025 年 8 月 5 日 LPG：进口成本下行 丙烯：供需格局宽松，短期弱势震荡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,896 | -1.74% | 3,868 | -0.72% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,309 | -2.16% | 4,281 | -0.65% | | | PL2601 | 6,481 | 0.11% | 6,472 | -0.14% | | | PL2602 | 6,537 昨日成交 | -0.37% 较前日变动 | 6,532 昨日持仓 | -0.08% 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 92,565 | 25516 | 96,122 | 6161 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 31,664 | 12155 | 70,882 | 5252 | | | PL2601 | 2,137 | - ...