Trading Specifications - The trading unit of manganese silicon is 5 tons per lot, with a quotation unit of RMB per ton, a minimum price change of 2 yuan per ton, and a daily price limit of ±4% of the previous trading day's settlement price. The contract months are from January to December, and the trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am, 1:30 - 3:00 pm, and other trading hours specified by the exchange [19]. - The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract delivery month, and the delivery date is the 13th trading day of the contract price month. The delivery grade is the standard product that meets the requirements of the "National Standard of the People's Republic of China for Manganese - Silicon Alloy" (GB/T 4008 - 2008), with specific chemical composition and particle size requirements. The delivery location is the exchange - designated delivery warehouse, the minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, the delivery method is physical delivery, the delivery unit is 5 tons, the trading code is SM, and it is listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [21]. - The silicon - manganese trading margin ratio is 5% from listing to the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month, 10% from the 16th calendar day of the month before the delivery month to the last calendar day of the month before the delivery month, and 20% during the delivery month [22]. - Under normal circumstances, the daily price limit of silicon manganese is 8% with a 5% margin. For the first trading limit, the price limit is 9% with an 11% margin, and for the second trading limit, the price limit is 12% with a 14% margin. The situation for the third trading limit is subject to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's risk control management measures and relevant announcements [23]. Brands and Origins - There are four brands of silicon - manganese alloy, including Sheng Yan from Ningxia, Zuan Zuan Zuan from Inner Mongolia, Jin Sui from Guizhou, and Ji Yuan from Ningxia, along with their corresponding registered enterprises [26]. Delivery Warehouse and Premium/Discount - Different delivery warehouses in various locations have different premium/discounts per ton. For example, warehouses in Hubei have a - 50 yuan/ton discount, those in Jiangsu mostly have 0 yuan/ton, and those in Tianjin generally have a - 150 yuan/ton discount [29]

| ///◆ 国投期货 | | 教商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年03月28日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ★☆★ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ★☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】 今天郑棉小幅上涨，走势仍维持窄幅震荡,国产棉现货交投平渋:2024/25北疆兵团机采3129/29B/杂3内销售基意多数在 0F05+1100上下，题内自提。纯棉纱市场交报气氛一般,价格稳中偏弱主导,下游开机低于往年的旺季表现,给企的棉纱库存处 于偏低位置,需求表现仍然偏弱,纷企对于原料采购持续速慎,以刚需补库为主;由于关税的 ...

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 0 各项声明请参见报告尾页 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 主要钢企螺纹钢产量排名（单位：万吨） | | --- | | 排序 | 钢铁企业 | 2013 年 | 钢铁企业 | 2017 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 河北钢铁集团 | 1080.3 | 沙钢集团 | 1105.0 | | 2 | 武汉钢铁(集团) | 1014.7 | 河钢集团 | 831.8 | | ന | 江苏沙钢集团 | 1013.6 | 山东钢铁 | 761.8 | | 4 | 山东钢铁集团 | 813.8 | 宝武集团 | 700.2 | | 5 | 方大钢铁集团 | 743.2 | 龙门钢铁 | 697.9 | 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 2 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | റ | 首钢集团 | 694.8 | 莱钢集团 | 660.7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7 | 马钢 ...

【甲醇】 伊朗装置重启较多,海外装置产能利用率大幅提升,日内甲醇盘面弱势回调。短期到港量仍旧偏低,沿海MTO崇 置开工回升后保持稳定,港口持续去库,华东基盖偏强震荡。内地凝置开工率下降,下游需求表现较好,生产 企业库存减少,短期基本面偏强;中长期来看供应预期缓慢恢复,需求存在走弱的可能,行情或出现特向。 【尿素】 印度发布新一轮尿素招标,4月8日裁标,出口传闻不攻自破。生产企业去阵幅度较大,5-9月差持续走强。农需 阶段性空档,工业刚需采购为主。日产虽有小幅下降,但仍维持高位,关注后续新凝置投产情况,市场供应预 期持续增加。短期受市场情绪以及下游需求提振,行情偏强震荡为主,关注南方农作物种植进度。 【聚烯烃】 塑料期货主力合约日内窄幅波动。塑料部分企业存在检修计划,使得供应端的压力有所缓解,但需求跟进有 限,下游采购积极性不高,导致商家让利出货状态延续;聚丙烯方面,供需基本面小幅改善。需求端整体运行 仍显疲软,新增订单跟进不足,下游开工略有抬升,但难以对现货行情起到有力支撑。供应端多数新装置投产 推迟,签加检修高位,使得产能利用率低位运行,供应压力有所缓解。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据, ...

| /// 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年03月28日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | 文女女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 亚盘时段国际油价走弱,日内S005含约跌0.2%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期去化334.1万桶,汽油、中质馏分产 品库存同样录得去库。此前油市交易主线为OPEC+强化城产补偿对盈余压力的缓解，美国对伊朗、委内瑞拉制裁加 码带来的供应紧缩预期,但随着油价连续反弹后续制裁进一步加码并带来的油价提振念发有限,4月2日美国对汽车 关税、加墨关税亦面临新一轮加征博弈,市场交易焦点或转向原油供需面,一季度后 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the final implementation mode of Trump's tariffs at the beginning of April and is also awaiting new domestic policy signals. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - The central bank will choose the right time to cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond futures market will maintain a strong oscillation range in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [48]. Summary by Categories Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated. The EIA crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 3.341 million barrels last week. The market trading focus may shift to the supply - demand side. There is still accumulation pressure after the first quarter. Pay attention to the resistance at Brent $74 - 75 per barrel and SC 550 yuan per barrel [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: For high - sulfur fuel oil, continue to hold the strategy of shorting at high levels as supply fluctuations ease and加注 demand weakens. Low - sulfur fuel oil lacks upward drive but also has limited downward pressure, and its cracking spread is expected to continue to oscillate [21]. - **Asphalt**: The production of asphalt using diluted asphalt as raw material is still restricted. The planned asphalt production in China in April is 228.9 million tons. With the temperature rising, demand is expected to improve, and the fundamentals are marginally better [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Crude oil strength supports international prices. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand may decline. The supply - side pressure is limited, but the market may turn weaker in the later stage [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Despite better - than - expected US economic data, precious metals rose overnight. The gold price is in an upward trend but needs to be wary of corrections. Focus on the US PCE data tonight [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell back. High copper prices affect the de - stocking speed. Short - term adjustments are expected, and the decline range is limited [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the decline of non - ferrous metals. The de - stocking speed is faster than in previous years. Short - term oscillation is expected, and attention should be paid to the support at 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices opened low and moved lower. Mine production is advancing as scheduled, and supply is not tight. Consumption shows resilience but limited growth. Zinc is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 24,250 yuan per ton [7]. - **Lead**: The market is worried about new tariffs, leading to a decline in lead prices. The raw material supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The fundamentals are mixed, and it is expected to oscillate with a resistance at 17,880 yuan per ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly. High - nickel pig iron prices are strong. Nickel is expected to have short - term support around 130,000 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose. Pay attention to the technical resistance at 285,000 - 287,000 yuan. Track LME inventory and demand - side changes [10]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production capacity is at a historical high. Spot prices are under pressure, and the decline may slow down, with limited rebound space [6]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds close to 75,000 yuan. The market demand lacks expansion space, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is suitable to try short - selling [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is oscillating at a low level. Pay attention to the implementation of the joint production - cut plan of northwest silicon enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price shows limited upward and downward drive. Spot prices are stable, and short - term narrow - range oscillation is expected [13]. - **Plastics and Fibers** - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The short - term bearish factors are digested, but the demand follows up slowly. The inventory is transferred to the intermediate links [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC production remains high, and there is high - inventory and high - supply pressure. The caustic soda industry also faces similar pressure, and the prices are in a weak pattern [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX rebounds at night. PTA follows the raw material fluctuations. Mid - term trends depend on energy support and terminal demand [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply is still high. Pay attention to the positive supply - side drivers in April [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: The short - fiber industry's fundamentals improve, and pay attention to the opportunity of processing margin recovery. The bottle - chip price follows the raw material, and the processing margin may be under pressure [31]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass spot sales are good, and the industry continues to de - stock. Pay attention to the sales volume. If it falls below 100%, consider closing long positions [32]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash continues to de - stock. Supply rebounds this week. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [34]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: The market awaits the US soybean planting intention report. Domestic bean meal basis is falling. After the arrival of a large number of soybeans, the basis may continue to decline. The mid - term trend is range - bound [35]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices are falling back. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. The price may test the bottom again [39]. - **Meat and Eggs** - **Pork**: The hog futures price oscillates slightly downwards. The long - term supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to move towards 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. The futures market maintains a bearish view [40]. - **Egg**: The egg spot price is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The mid - term spot price may decline, and the futures market maintains a bearish view in the mid - term [41]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices rise. The US cotton planting area is expected to decrease. The demand for cotton is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates. Brazilian sugar production may be lower than expected. The domestic sugar supply and demand show some positive factors, but the upward space is limited [43]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price corrects. The cold - storage apple inventory is low, and the demand is entering the peak season. The price may rise [44]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The log inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price falls slightly. The inventory decreases, and there are supply - reduction expectations. The demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) lacks an upward drive and may continue to oscillate. Pay attention to the shipping companies' price - supporting actions during the May Day holiday [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market volume rebounds slightly. The stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, affected by Trump's tariff policy and domestic policies [47]. - **Bond**: The bond futures close stably. The central bank will cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates. The market maintains a strong oscillation range, and a steepening strategy is recommended for hedging [48].

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Not clearly rated [1] - Silver: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View - Despite better-than-expected US Q4 GDP final value and weekly initial jobless claims data, precious metals rose and gold prices hit a new high, continuing the previous trading logic. The uncertainty of the economic outlook under the background of the trade war led the market to increase the allocation of gold. Precious metals are in a game around factors such as the US economic outlook, Trump's tariff policy, and the progress of Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Currently, the gold price is in a state of trend continuation but with a risk of correction due to the rapid upward movement. Those with empty positions should stay on the sidelines and focus on the impact of tonight's US PCE data on the prospects of interest rate cuts [1] Other Key Points - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 11 were 224,000, lower than the expected 225,000. The annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter was revised up to 2.4%, and the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the fourth quarter was revised down to 2.6% [1] - The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU is preparing a response to the new US import tariffs but has not determined the time. The EU's response will be timely, strong, and precise, and it plans to target US service exports, including large technology companies [2] - The Canadian Prime Minister said that Canada will respond to US tariffs next week. The Premier of Ontario, Canada, said that the US will give full or partial tariff exemptions for Canadian cars [2]

Group 1: Steel Production Ranking - The top 10 steel producers in the previous period were Handan Zongheng Iron and Steel Group, Shougang Group, Benxi Iron and Steel (Group), Jiangsu Shagang Group, Taiyuan Iron and Steel Group, Bohai Iron and Steel Group, etc., with a total output of 953.78 billion and a proportion of 52.2% of the national output of 1827.07 billion [8]. - The top 10 steel producers in the current period were Handan Zongheng Iron and Steel Group, Shougang Group, Jiangsu Shagang Group, Benxi Iron and Steel (Group), Tangshan Guofeng Iron and Steel, Jianlong Group, etc., with a total output of 980.33 billion and a proportion of 48.38% of the national output of 2026.15 billion [8]. Group 2: Hot - Rolled Coil Futures Contract Specifications - The trading unit of hot - rolled coil is 10 tons/hand, the quotation unit is yuan (RMB)/ton, and the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton [16]. - The daily price limit is ±3% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and the contract months are from January to December [16]. - The trading time is from 9:00 - 11:30 am, 1:30 - 3:00 pm and other trading times specified by the exchange. The last trading day is the 15th of the contract month (subject to adjustment for holidays), and the delivery date is two consecutive working days after the last trading day [16]. - The standard delivery grade is O235B in GB/T 3274 - 2017 or SS400 in JIS G 3101 - 2015, with a thickness of 5.75mm and a width of 1500mm. There are also substitute grades with different thicknesses [16][17]. - The delivery location is the exchange - designated warehouse, the minimum trading margin is 4% of the contract value, and the delivery method is physical delivery with a delivery unit of 300 tons. The trading code is HC, and it is listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [17]. - The hot - rolled coil trading margin ratio is 4% from the contract listing date, 10% from the first trading day of the month before the delivery month, 15% from the first trading day of the delivery month, and 20% from two trading days before the last trading day [19]. Group 3: Major Steel Companies - Major steel companies include Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (Baosteel), Angang Steel Co., Ltd. (Angang), HBIS Group Co., Ltd. (HBIS), Benxi Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. (Benxi Steel), Jiangsu Shagang Group Co., Ltd. (Shagang), etc., with their respective locations [26]. Group 4: Delivery Location Premiums and Discounts - The delivery location premiums and discounts for hot - rolled coil are as follows: Tianjin area has a discount of 90 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Xuzhou area has a discount of 50 yuan/ton, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang area has a discount of 10 yuan/ton, Hubei Wuhan area has a discount of 70 yuan/ton, and other areas such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, Zhenjiang Huilong Port, and Guangzhou are the benchmark [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's coke demand and supply have both peaked, with demand influenced by the trend of pig iron production and supply affected by capacity reduction in the coking industry [7][8][12]. - The coking industry's bargaining power has increased to some extent, but the number and scale of coke traders have declined significantly, and most coking plants now have long - term direct supply cooperation with steel mills [21]. - China's coke export scale is shrinking due to the expansion of new coking capacity in Southeast Asia, and the current export accounts for only about 1% [18]. - The coke futures market has a variety of trading strategies, including hedging, inter - period arbitrage, and cross - variety arbitrage, but there are still some entities that have not fully participated in the futures market, and the basis business needs further development [41][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot and Market Supply - Demand Basics 3.1.1 Definition and Classification of Metallurgical Coke - Coke is a solid fuel obtained by dry distillation of coking coal at about 1000°C, with about 1.33 tons of coking coal consumed to produce 1 ton of coke. It is mainly used in blast furnace ironmaking, and about 90% of global coke production is for this purpose [3]. - According to national standards, coke is classified into three grades (first - grade, second - grade, and third - grade) based on quality indicators such as ash content, sulfur content, and mechanical strength [3][5]. 3.1.2 Coke Demand - China's coke consumption mainly depends on domestic pig iron production, with about 0.4 - 0.5 tons of coke needed to produce 1 ton of pig iron. Pig iron production has shown a downward trend since 2014 and an upward trend since 2018, and coke demand follows a similar trend [7][8]. - The main consumption areas of coke are North China and its surrounding areas, followed by East China [10]. 3.1.3 Coke Supply - Since 2014, China's coke production has peaked and then declined due to capacity reduction in the coking industry and weakening demand. In 2024, the output dropped to 345 million tons [12]. - Coking plants are divided into steel - mill - owned and independent coking plants, and the proportion of private independent coking plants has been gradually decreasing. The top five coke - producing provinces in 2024 were Shanxi (19%), Inner Mongolia (10%), Hebei (9%), Shaanxi (9%), and Xinjiang (8%) [14][16]. 3.1.4 Coke Import and Export - China is a traditional net exporter of coke, but the export scale has been shrinking due to the expansion of new coking capacity in Southeast Asia. In 2024, China exported 8.34 million tons of coke and semi - coke, imported 130,000 tons, with a net export of 8.21 million tons, and the export accounted for only about 1%. The current export tariff is zero [18]. 3.1.5 Coke Trade and Logistics - The coking industry has low enterprise concentration, and the downstream steel industry and upstream coking coal industry have stronger bargaining power. However, the bargaining power of the coking industry has increased in recent years [19][21]. - Most of the output of independent coking plants in China is for domestic trade, and the trade pattern is from north to south and from west to east, with a combination of railway, road, and water transportation [20][21]. 3.2 Basics of Metallurgical Coke Futures 3.2.1 Metallurgical Coke Futures Contracts - The coke futures contract has been modified twice, mainly regarding the delivery standards. The latest modification will be for the 2604 contract [24]. - The contract has specific trading parameters, such as a trading unit of 100 tons/hand, a minimum price change of 0.5 yuan/ton, and a daily price limit of 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price [25]. 3.2.2 Metallurgical Coke Futures Trading System - **Margin System**: The exchange margin for coke futures contracts is 15% of the contract value, and it is managed in a hierarchical manner. The margin ratio increases as the delivery date approaches and may also be adjusted according to the contract's open interest [25]. - **Price Limit System**: The price limit for coke futures contracts is ±8% of the previous trading day's settlement price. When there are consecutive limit - up or limit - down situations, the exchange will adjust the price limit and margin requirements [26][27]. - **Position Limit System**: The exchange sets limits on the maximum number of positions that members or clients can hold. For different trading periods, there are different position limits, and individual clients are not allowed to hold positions in the delivery month [28][29]. 3.2.3 Metallurgical Coke Futures Delivery Underlying - The delivery underlying of the metallurgical coke futures contract is mainly quasi - first - grade coke, with quality better than second - grade coke and worse than first - grade coke. After the 2201 contract, dry - basis anhydrous was adopted, and after the 2406 contract, the concept of equilibrium moisture was introduced [30]. 3.3 Basics of Metallurgical Coke Futures Business 3.3.1 Calculation of Coke Basis - To calculate the coke basis, it is necessary to find the pricing underlying that meets the quality requirements and location requirements of the delivery warehouse or plant. After the 2201 contract, dry - basis pricing is used, and moisture and other factors need to be converted [38]. - The wet - ton to disk - face conversion formula is: Disk - face price = Wet - ton price/(1 - moisture content in the spot) + quality premium or discount. After the 2604 contract, an additional penalty of 110 yuan/ton is required for wet - quenched coke with equilibrium moisture > 1% [39][40]. 3.3.2 Summary of Coke Futures Strategies - Participants in the coke futures market can use various trading strategies, including hedging by coke producers, purchasers, and traders, as well as inter - period arbitrage (e.g., trading the price difference between 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts) and cross - variety arbitrage (such as between coke and steel products, and the so - called disk - face coking arbitrage) [41]. 3.3.3 Summary of Coke Futures Participants - The coke futures market has a long - established history, with a wide range of participants including coking enterprises, traders, and downstream steel mills. However, some state - owned steel enterprises and remote coking enterprises have not fully participated, and the participation of clients in hedging is limited by position limits. The basis business in the coke futures market needs further development [43].

今日生西弱势震荡。本周螺纹表需回瑜悟皮继续放缓,产量短期趋稳，库存缓慢去化,绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热卷需求好 转，产量相对平稳，库存继续回落。高炉延续复产态势，节奏仍有波折，下游制造业投资增速放缓，基礎投资边际回驳，地产 销售边际走弱,新开工继续大幅下滑,小阳亮剑售回暖力度有待观察。限产预期对盘面仍有支撑,不过由于终端离求玻弱,市 场心态较为谨慎,盘面反弹动能不足,弱势震荡格局或延续,关注旺季需求强度及政策落地情况。 【铁矿】 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年03月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ななな | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ななな | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z ...