免责声明： 国投期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货投资咨询业务资 格。 本报告仅供国投期货有限公司(以下简称"本公司")的机构或个人客户(以下简称"客户"） 使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。如接收人并非国投期货的客户，请 及时退回并删除。 本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。 本报告所载的资料、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。本报告所载的资料、意见及推 测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的期货或期权的价格、价值可能会 波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。客户不 应视本报告为其做出投资决策的唯一因素。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意 见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任 何内容所导致的任何损失负任何责任。 2025年4月3日 集运（欧线）：线上即期运价快报 国投期货能源团队 高明宇 投资咨询号：Z0012038 李海群 投资咨询号：Z0021515 行情评述 现货市场方面，多数公司仍以沿用现有报价为主。由于清明节假期影响，原定 ...

【甲醇】 甲醇盘面下跌。海外炭置复产利空市场，考虑到船期因素,短期到港维持低位，周期内港口大幅去库,进口增 登预计延后至4月中下旬兑现。甲醇强现实与弱预期博弈,国产开工由降转升,后续随着进口以及国产供应的增 多,以及多套MTO装置存在检修计划,供需或逐步转向宽松,行情偏弱震荡为主,关注实际到港情况与下游需求 变动。 【尿素】 | 《八》国技期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年04月03日 | | 聚丙烯 | ななな | 塑料 | ★☆☆ | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | PX | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | ★☆★ | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | | | 短纤 | ★☆★ | 瓶片 | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | ななな | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | ☆☆☆ | 烧碱 | ★☆★ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 食食女 纯碱 | | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0 ...

| 《》 国投期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月03日 | | 原油 ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 4月2日美国"对等关税"政策落地,加征比例较市场此前预期的15-20%偏高。考虑到本轮关税政策仍将美国进口的 原油、天然气、炼化产品豁免在外,预计此举不会对油气商品贸易流产生直接影响,后续重点关注欧盟、韩国等国 是否会以美国原油作为关税反制标的。我们此前持续提示原油市场交易主题或自美国对伊朗、俄罗斯、委内瑞拉加 重制裁引发的供应风险切换至贸易战引发的石油需求担忧,布伦特75美元/橘、SC550元/桶一线的压制作用依然有 效,原油价格短期风险偏向下行。 【尽東簽信息 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 一、对宏观和金融衍生品市场的潜在影响 尽管政策整体偏腰,但仍包含部分缓冲措施,首先,在实施的范围上,对于部分商品进行豁免,主要包括钢 铝、汽车(25%已生效)、铜、药品、半导体、木材制品、某些关键矿物及能源与能源产品等,以及对于美墨加 USMCA协定内的产品延续豁免;其次,在实施时间上,并非立即落地,而是以4月9日为最终日。从公布时市场反 应来看,美股期货下跌,美债利率下行,离岸人民币汇率走贬,避险代表资产黄金高位震荡,日元走强。 中期来看,全球市场正从一季度渐进式关税预期转向更明确的滞胀交易逻辑,高关税及潜在的报复性措施可能 加剧"增长放缓+通胀顽固"的宏观经济格局。当然这里面的"带"与"张"是非对称的,即美国首先面临 着"胀"在消化这个"肤"的过程中必然会带来"滞"，主要的贸易顺差国如中国先面临着"滞"的挑战，随 后看如何通过政策的对冲来驱动再通胀。 在此背景下,政策对冲将成为关键变量,后续有两方面值得关注。一是特朗普政府的政策协调,美国可能通过 进一步落实减税敌策缓解经济压力,同时在"硬数据"向"软数据"靠拢的过程中,美联储是否考虑提前降息以 提供支持;二是中国和欧洲等主要经济体的刺 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜国际油价冲高回落，布伦特06合约跌1.53%。美国宣布最低10%的对等关税细节，其中对欧 盟、中国、日本的对等关税分别为20%、34%、24%。原油交易主题从制载俄罗斯、伊朗相关的供 应风险过渡为美国新一轮贸易战对需求的负面影响,上周美国EIA原油库存亦超预期增加616.5万 桶。我们此前提到的布伦特74-75美元/橘、SC550元/桶压制作用依然有效, 油价或开启高位回落走 势。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡,金银延续分化。特朗普公布对等关税政策略超预期,黄金获得了豁免。贸易战背 景下市场对经济前景担忧加剧,当前金价强势但上行速度过快,波动料将放大。多国宣布关税反制 后,市场聚焦美国关税执行落地前是否有缓和余地,美国公布3月ADP就业人数15.5万人好于预期和 前值,等待周五非农数据指引。 【铜】 隔夜铜价延续窄区间波动,盘后特朗普公布对等关税,铜、金及半导体进口暂被豁免10%基础关税, 差盘铜逐渐收回盘中跌幅,美伦实物套利逻辑延续。不过全球铜需求必会受到贸易疲弱与宏观指标 拖累。当下国内处消费旺季,伦铜必须有效失守960 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is weighing the supply risks from Russia and Iran and the negative impact on demand from the upcoming US tariffs. The details of Trump's counter - tariffs and specific industry tariffs will be announced at 3 am Beijing time on Thursday [2]. - Various commodities show different trends and are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical issues, and tariff policies. Some commodities are in a state of adjustment, while others are facing supply or demand - side pressures [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: After a sharp rise the previous day, international oil prices fell overnight. The market is considering supply risks and tariff impacts. API data showed an unexpected 603700 - barrel increase in US crude oil inventories last week, and the market expects a 206000 - barrel decline in DOE inventories tonight. The resistance levels of Brent at $74 - 75 per barrel and SC at 550 yuan per barrel are still under attention [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Heavy - oil producing countries like Russia and Iran face US tariffs, making FU more affected in the context of tight global heavy - oil resources. The second - batch export quota of Chinese low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.2 billion tons year - on - year, putting downward pressure on the supply side and narrowing the high - low sulfur spread [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Recent refinery overhauls have reduced external supply, and lower domestic import costs and rising crude oil prices have led to an increase in refinery gas prices. The overseas April CP is stable, and the international market is slightly strong. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand is weakening after the overhaul season. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is oscillating [23]. - **Bitumen**: Port diluted bitumen inventories have decreased by 30000 tons and are at a historical low. Although the import efficiency of domestic refineries has improved, the refinery operating rate is still at a low - to - medium level. With rising temperatures, demand is expected to improve, and factory inventories have been decreasing for two consecutive weeks. The April inventory reduction pressure is expected to ease. The short - term unilateral trend follows crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices remained strong, and silver continued to diverge after the US announced weaker - than - expected manufacturing PMI and job vacancy data. The upward trend of gold prices continues, but the rapid increase may lead to greater volatility. Empty - position holders are advised to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the US March ADP employment data and tariff policies [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Copper prices adjusted overnight, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. LME copper is worried about counter - tariffs and has closed down for five consecutive days. SHFE copper is adjusting below 80000 yuan. Domestic spot copper has a small premium, and production decline in April is limited due to by - product profits. The market is sensitive to Trump's counter - tariffs, and if LME copper effectively breaks below $9600 - 9700, the adjustment range may expand [4]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate weakly. The inventory removal speed is slightly faster than in previous years, and the apparent consumption is good. The market expects a good performance in the peak season. After the cost reduction, higher profits require greater import expectations. SHFE aluminum oscillates above 20000 yuan, and the short - term is affected by overseas macro factors, with support at the annual - line level [5]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc continued to correct, facing pressure from the 60 - day moving average, and the medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. The zinc concentrate TC in April continues to rise, and smelters are more motivated to produce. Export prospects are affected by "rush - to - export" and accumulated tariffs, and domestic demand depends on infrastructure and manufacturing. The consumption side has resilience but lacks growth. The short - term support is at 23000 yuan per ton, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The price of lead - acid batteries did not follow the decline in lead prices, and secondary lead smelters are reluctant to sell. The spread between refined and scrap lead has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead smelters are generally high, and it is the consumption off - season. The replacement demand is weak, and dealers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing. The SMM1 lead price has a real - time discount of 220 yuan per ton to the futures price, indicating average downstream acceptance. In the short term, there is a game between consumption and cost, and SHFE lead has a weak direction, with low trading enthusiasm. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17200 - 17800 yuan per ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel weakened, and the market trading was active. The premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped to 1450 yuan, Russian nickel had a discount of 50 yuan, and electrowon nickel had a discount of 150 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron remained strong, and the Indonesian ore end still affects raw material pricing. Nickel - iron inventory is at a low level of 23000 tons, pure - nickel inventory slightly increased to 47400 tons, and stainless - steel inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 980000 tons. The early - year supply - side and low - price excitement is coming to an end, and high inventory and weak demand are suppressing prices. The main support factor is the nickel - iron price. If nickel - iron weakens, the decline may intensify. Technically, there is buying support below 130000 yuan for SHFE nickel, with a general downward trend, but short - sellers need patience [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin led the rise overnight. With production risks in the two major supplying countries, the 3050 - ton inventory of LME tin increases the probability of a short - squeeze, and the LME 0 - 3 month premium has rapidly expanded to $264. SHFE tin increased positions significantly at night, and the K - line retraced the gains above 290000 yuan. The warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased, and the domestic market is also considering the strength of demand. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in low - inventory areas. SHFE tin needs a strong external market to effectively break through 290000 yuan [10]. Agricultural Commodities - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose due to positive expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The domestic soybean meal basis showed an oscillating decline. The soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for trading opportunities during the US crop season. There may be weather - related speculation in the US summer, and there is support at the bottom. Soybeans have room for expansion at high prices but are also restricted at the top. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to move within a range [35]. - **Vegetable Oils**: US soybean oil rose significantly due to a better - than - expected biodiesel policy. However, the actual raw - material demand for biodiesel is weak, and high raw - material prices may be unfavorable for demand. A large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in late April, increasing supply - side pressure and posing a risk of an oscillating decline in the soybean oil basis. For palm oil, the performance during the medium - term production - increasing season needs attention, and the price may oscillate. Overall, vegetable oils are expected to oscillate within a range, and there may be opportunities to buy on dips for soybean and palm oils in the medium term [36]. - **Corn**: The national grain - selling progress is 87%, close to the end and the fastest in the past four years. The supply at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased again, and the spot purchase price has turned down. North - port inventories have been rising, and Northeast corn prices are stable with a slight decline. South - port inventories are decreasing slowly. The concentrated release of grain by holders after the transfer of grain rights may lead to a decline in domestic corn futures [39]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: Hog futures trended weakly with oscillations, and multiple contracts hit new lows. Spot prices fluctuated slightly. The long - term supply pressure remains due to rising production capacity and an increase in the number of newborn piglets in February. Secondary fattening and weight - pressing in the early stage have limited price declines and postponed supply pressure. It is expected that spot hog prices will move towards the range of 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. With the narrowing of the fat - lean price spread, attention should be paid to the pressure of large - hog sales. The hog futures market continues to trade on future supply pressure, with a bearish outlook [40]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures fluctuated narrowly, and some contracts hit new lows. Spot prices in many regions decreased. The chickens that started laying eggs in April were hatched in November last year. Due to the continuous year - on - year increase in chick hatching, the industry's production capacity is expected to rise until July this year. Weekly data shows an increase in old - hen culling. Whether it will lead to large - scale culling needs attention. Inventory data shows high pressure in the circulation link. Technically, after the contract increased positions and prices declined, the previous oscillation range was broken, and prices are expected to face more pressure, with a bearish strategy [41]. - **Fibers and Others**: - **Cotton**: US cotton rose significantly. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report showed that the expected cotton - planting area in 2025 is 9.867 million acres, lower than the market forecast of 10.189 million acres. The actual planting area in 2024 was 11.182 million acres. Attention should be paid to weather and subsequent planting progress. The strong US cotton may drive up domestic prices, but spot trading is average. The trading of pure - cotton yarn has not changed much, and prices are slightly weak. The downstream operating rate is lower than the peak - season level in previous years, and the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises is low. Demand is still weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [42]. - **Sugar**: ICE sugar rebounded overnight. The market's focus has shifted to the Brazilian fundamentals. Less rainfall in Brazil in the first quarter may lead to a decline in yield per unit. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been digested, and the market will focus on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good this year, and the supply of imported sugar has decreased significantly. However, the downward trend of ICE sugar remains, and the domestic total supply is relatively sufficient. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Wood**: Wood futures oscillated. Spot prices were weak. The number of orders for construction poles from processing plants was average, and the enthusiasm for purchasing logs was low. Although the port shipment volume has increased recently, it is difficult to digest the inventory in the short term. The log inventory pressure is high, and spot prices are under pressure to decline. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures fell slightly yesterday. Attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp decreased by 50 yuan to 6450 yuan per ton, and the prices of Hebei U - needle and B - needle pulp and broad - leaf pulp also decreased. As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper - pulp ports was 2.013 million tons, a decrease of 33000 tons from the previous period, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level year - on - year. The external - market quotation is relatively firm, with an expectation of price increases. The port inventory is still high, demand is average, and the market has a strong resistance to high - price pulp. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Other Commodities - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial - silicon futures closed slightly lower at 9790 yuan per ton. A factory plans to shut down 28 units, reducing daily output by about 1800 tons, but the market is waiting and seeing. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic silicon wafers is expected to decrease by 3GW in April due to an earthquake, reducing the demand for polycrystalline silicon. The load of organic - silicon monomers is expected to decrease by about 5% month - on - month. The demand side of industrial silicon is difficult to improve, and the supply management of the industry is crucial. The actual production - reduction intensity in the northwest is still unclear, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The main contract of plastic continued to fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. The restart of some polyethylene - production units has increased supply. Only the operating rates of the agricultural - film and drawing industries have increased, but the agricultural - film operating rate in North China has reached its peak and is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is low. Petrochemical and trading companies continue to reduce inventory through price concessions. In the medium term, the plastic price is expected to be weak. The 5 - day moving average of the main contract of polypropylene is flat, and it faces pressure from the 60 - day moving average. The new - capacity release is postponed, and the existing units are under maintenance, so the supply pressure is controllable. The downstream operating rate is generally stable and improving, but new orders are limited due to profit - level issues, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC fluctuated narrowly during the day. In April, more PVC enterprises are under regular maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic demand is flat, and the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade exports is slightly better, with concentrated delivery of export orders. The industry inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are weak, maintaining a weak pattern. For caustic soda, the price of liquid caustic soda purchased by downstream alumina enterprises decreased, and the spot price continued to decline slightly, with a narrowing basis. The machinery enterprises in northern Shandong that previously reduced production are resuming, increasing supply. Downstream and trading companies are not enthusiastic about purchasing. Some alumina enterprises are in the red and have production - reduction expectations. The inventory has increased month - on - month, with high pressure, and the futures price is still under pressure at a high level [28]. - **PX & PTA**: PX and PTA oscillated following oil prices at night. The gasoline crack spread oscillated and rebounded, and the PX operating rate declined, improving the supply - demand situation. However, the weak terminal orders continue to affect market sentiment, and the PX valuation oscillates at a low level, mainly driven by crude oil. The PTA operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the maintenance of downstream filament and staple - fiber enterprises has increased, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation for PTA, which is mainly driven by cost [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high. Although the maintenance of syngas - based units has increased, the expected decline in polyester operating rate offsets the positive impact of production reduction. The weekly arrival volume has rebounded, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price oscillated at night. There was news of a decline in overseas shipments yesterday, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply changes on the market [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The operating rate of short - fiber increased, and the industry inventory continued to decrease, improving the fundamentals. However, the processing margin continued to weaken, increasing the willingness of enterprises to reduce production. The sales volume rebounded yesterday. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the processing margin to rebound from a low level due to the decline in industry operating rate. The price of bottle - chip futures oscillated. The recent restart of units has put pressure on the processing margin, which has rapidly declined to a low - level range. The absolute price is driven by cost [31]. - **Glass**: The number of glass warehouse receipts was small, and the price rose significantly yesterday. The price in Hubei increased by 20 yuan, and sales improved. Currently, coal - fired production still has a small profit, while petroleum - coke and natural - gas - fired production are in the red. The driving forces for cold - repair and ignition are both weak, and the production capacity oscillates within a certain range. The improvement of processing orders is not obvious, and enterprises are cautious about accepting orders with slow payment. The high - position situation remains to be resolved, and there is a large game between long and short positions. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [32]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose following glass. Soda - ash factories accumulated inventory on Monday. Previously - overhauled enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output increased last week. Although the second - line of Jinshan is under maintenance and Hubei Shuanghuan is operating at a reduced load, the impact is limited. With the increase in Yuangxing's production, the weekly output may return to over 700000 tons. The supply - demand situation of photovoltaic glass improved in March, with an increase in daily melting volume and an increase in the rigid demand for heavy - ash. However, the speed of future ignition plans may slow down. With supply pressure and a slowdown in demand growth, the futures price is expected to face pressure at a high level [34]. - **Iron and Steel Products**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices continued to rebound slightly at night. The sequential growth of rebar's apparent demand slowed down, and it was still weak year - on - year. The production was stable in the short term, and the inventory was slowly decreasing, but the absolute value was

国技期货 商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 2025/4/1 = 国投期货 | 铁 | 0.06%,库存因子走强0.86%,价差因子 净值曲线 | | --- | --- | | 矿 | 保持不变,合成因子走强0.28%。本周综 | | | 供给 -- 库存 -- 价差 -- 大类合成 合信号转为中性。铁矿砂及其精矿本月 80 | | | 进口量较前一月继续下降,供给端信号 70 | | | 保持中性。WSA粗钢本月全球产量较上 60 | | | 一月有所回落,需求端信号保持中性偏 50 | | | 多。本周铁精粉45个港口库存有所下 | | | 降,库存端转为空头。日照港在售的阿 30 | | | 特拉斯铁粉价格有所回落,价差端信号 | | | 转为空头。 | | | 数据来源:wind,国投期货 | | | 上周收益(%) 大类信号强度 当月收益(%) | | | 供给 0.05 0.60 | | | 需求 0.04 0.22 સ્ટે | | | र्गे 库存 0.00 1.41 | | | 价差 0.04 0.22 | | | 大类累加 0.03 0.60 | | | 조 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: Not clearly defined [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - **Palm Oil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Not clearly defined [1] - **Corn**: ★☆★, representing a somewhat bullish or bearish trend with weak driving force for price movement [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish trend with weak driving force for price decline [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish trend with weak driving force for price decline [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. Different products show different trends, mainly including range - bound, weakening, and potential price pressure [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are at low prices, and reserve auctions continue to add supply. Imported soybeans face arrival pressure in late April, and attention should be paid to policies and planting - related factors in the future [2] Soybean Meal - It follows the weakening of US soybeans. The domestic basis shows a volatile decline. It is expected to be range - bound, waiting for US crop - related trading opportunities, with support below and suppression above [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices are weak after relevant reports. There are contradictions in the overseas soybean oil biodiesel market. Soybean supply pressure will increase in late April. Palm oil needs to be observed during the mid - term production season. Overall, they are expected to be range - bound, and there may be opportunities to buy on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The USDA report on US new - season soybean planting area is neutral to bullish. Domestic rapeseed processing and inventory changes are small. The long - term supply of rapeseed is weak. Short - term market is affected by Sino - Canadian trade policies and may be volatile [6] Corn - The national corn sowing is nearly complete. Supply at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and prices have turned down. North port inventory is rising, and south port inventory is slowly decreasing. Grain release may cause futures prices to weaken [7] Live Pigs - Futures are weakly volatile, and spot prices fluctuate slightly. Supply pressure is increasing in the long term. Fat - to - lean price differentials affect supply release. Spot prices are expected to move towards 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and the futures market is bearish [8] Eggs - Futures are narrowly volatile, and spot prices are mostly down. Industry capacity is expected to rise before July. Attention should be paid to large - scale old - hen culling. Inventory pressure is high, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [9]

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 0 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 主要硅铁企业产量排名 (单位:万吨) | | --- | | 排序 | 硅铁企业 | 2023 年 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 西金矿冶 | 170 TIC | | | | CAMARK | 此报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 各项声明请参见报告尾页 400 450 500 550 600 650 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 硅铁：产量：中国（年） 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 2 | 三元中泰 | 45 | | --- | --- | --- | | ന | 内蒙君正 | 37 | | 4 | 貴淖束申 | 16.8 | | 5 | 青海百通 | 16.8 | | ଚ | 腾达西北铁 | 14 | | 7 | 茂烨冶金 | 12 | | 8 | 银河冶炼 | 12 | | ರಿ | 民和天利 | 12 | | 10 | 陕西三江能源 | ...

Trading Specifications - The trading unit of manganese silicon is 5 tons per lot, with a quotation unit of RMB per ton, a minimum price change of 2 yuan per ton, and a daily price limit of ±4% of the previous trading day's settlement price. The contract months are from January to December, and the trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am, 1:30 - 3:00 pm, and other trading hours specified by the exchange [19]. - The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract delivery month, and the delivery date is the 13th trading day of the contract price month. The delivery grade is the standard product that meets the requirements of the "National Standard of the People's Republic of China for Manganese - Silicon Alloy" (GB/T 4008 - 2008), with specific chemical composition and particle size requirements. The delivery location is the exchange - designated delivery warehouse, the minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, the delivery method is physical delivery, the delivery unit is 5 tons, the trading code is SM, and it is listed on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [21]. - The silicon - manganese trading margin ratio is 5% from listing to the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month, 10% from the 16th calendar day of the month before the delivery month to the last calendar day of the month before the delivery month, and 20% during the delivery month [22]. - Under normal circumstances, the daily price limit of silicon manganese is 8% with a 5% margin. For the first trading limit, the price limit is 9% with an 11% margin, and for the second trading limit, the price limit is 12% with a 14% margin. The situation for the third trading limit is subject to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's risk control management measures and relevant announcements [23]. Brands and Origins - There are four brands of silicon - manganese alloy, including Sheng Yan from Ningxia, Zuan Zuan Zuan from Inner Mongolia, Jin Sui from Guizhou, and Ji Yuan from Ningxia, along with their corresponding registered enterprises [26]. Delivery Warehouse and Premium/Discount - Different delivery warehouses in various locations have different premium/discounts per ton. For example, warehouses in Hubei have a - 50 yuan/ton discount, those in Jiangsu mostly have 0 yuan/ton, and those in Tianjin generally have a - 150 yuan/ton discount [29]