Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Red Star**: Indicates a predicted trend of rising. Three stars represent a clearer long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities; two stars represent holding long, with a clearer rising trend and the market fermenting on the trading board; one star represents a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading board [11]. - **Green Star**: Indicates a predicted trend of falling. Three stars represent a clearer short trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities; two stars represent holding short, with a clearer falling trend and the market fermenting on the trading board; one star represents a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decrease but poor operability on the trading board [11]. - **White Star**: Indicates that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading board has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [11]. - **Specific Ratings**: - **Bullish Bias**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1]. - **Bearish Bias**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1]. - **Unrated**: Live Pigs [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of agricultural products has different characteristics, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, policies, and seasonal patterns. Different varieties have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investment decisions should be made according to specific situations [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans are strong, continuing the oscillating rebound trend. The market participants are actively purchasing new grains, and last week's auction provides pricing reference. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is still expanding. Short - term US soybean crushing data is strong, but the export demand is uncertain. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress and market policies [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The sales progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, but US crushing has increased. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. The overall supply in the fourth quarter is not a big problem, but if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates and lasts, the supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if the Sino - US trade does not ease, the soybean meal futures are likely to continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Short - term strong US soybean crushing data boosts the market, but the export demand is uncertain. The near - term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the far - term demand has an expectation of increased biodiesel blending ratio in the Indonesian market. In the fourth quarter, palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle and has resilience. It is expected that oils are stronger than meals in the long - term, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed has extremely low inventory and low operating rate, and the supply side has a strong willingness to support prices. The Canadian rapeseed market maintains high crushing and low exports. The economic and trade relationship is the most important influencing factor. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions and pay attention to the marginal changes in economic and trade relations [6]. Corn - The autumn harvest progress in the Huanghuai region is slow. The spot price of Northeast corn has rebounded slightly, but the impact is small. The supply of Shandong corn is decreasing, and the price is stabilizing. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply of new corn in the Northeast will continue to increase in the next two weeks, and Dalian corn is likely to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with increased volatility [7]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded after reaching the bottom last week, mainly driven by second - fattening, increased consumption due to temperature drop, and frozen product storage. However, the later supply pressure is still large, and it is expected that the pig price may have a second bottom - probing in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The sentiment of the egg spot market has weakened again. The egg futures opened lower and increased positions on Monday. The old - hen culling is still cautious, and the cold - storage eggs have not been fully sold, which is a potential pressure on the spot market. The short - selling trend on the trading board continues, and a short - selling mindset should be maintained [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is expected to shift to high - level oscillations after short - term adjustments, with attention on subsequent policy signals. The bank sector showed relative strength last week, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices led the decline. Some option implied volatilities are still slightly high [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, major indices first rose and then fell, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the decline, dropping over 5%. The banking and coal sectors were relatively strong, rising over 4%, while the electronics sector was weak, falling 7%. Market focus was on Sino - US economic and trade relations, and Powell's remarks strengthened expectations of the Fed's loose policy [1] 3.2 Option Market - In the option market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options fluctuated significantly, with most IVs rising. The IVs of the STAR 50 options (IV = 41%) and ChiNext Index options (IV = 35%) remained high, and it's risky to buy options to chase the rise. The IVs of 50 and 300 options are in the 17% - 20% range, and those of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options are around 24% - 26%. The PCR of most financial options is in the 75% - 100% range, down from last week [2] 3.3 Strategy Outlook - The market may maintain high - level oscillations, and some option IVs are still slightly high. It's advisable to hold indices with reasonable valuations like CSI 300 and CSI A500. For the STAR 50 Index with a significant correction and high static valuation, if holding the spot, consider selling out - of - the - money call options with high volatility for hedging. If there are substantial spot gains, consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small number of long - dated call options. For the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures with a high discount, continue to hold the covered call strategy [3] 3.4 Data Analysis of Different Options - **50ETF Options**: From September 30 to October 10, 2025, the closing price was 3.11, down 0.06%, with an IV of 19.34% and a PCR of 7646% [4] - **CSI 300 Options**: The closing prices of CSI 300 ETFs (Shanghai and Shenzhen) and the CSI 300 Index declined, with IVs in the 18% - 19% range and different PCR values [4] - **CSI 500 Options**: The closing prices of CSI 500 ETFs (Shanghai and Shenzhen) declined, with IVs around 22% - 25% and varying PCRs [4] - **CSI 1000 Options**: The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 7185.48, down 4.62%, with an IV of 26.02% and a PCR of 8937% [4] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: The closing price was 2.92, down 5.82%, with an IV of 32.43% and a PCR of 8703% [4] - **STAR 50 ETF Options**: The closing prices of STAR 50 ETFs (Shanghai and Shenzhen) declined, with high IVs around 32% - 42% and different PCRs [4] - **SZSE 100 ETF Options**: The closing price was 3.39, down 4.34%, with an IV of 24.55% and a PCR of 9875% [4]

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Investment Ratings - Index Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending October 17, index futures showed differentiation. IH2510 rose by 0.30%, IF2510 fell by 1.64%, IC2510 dropped by 4.41%, and IM2510 declined by 3.85%. Trade issues made market sentiment cautious, and the trade war's uncertainty suppressed market risk appetite. There was also a demand for a post - overbought correction in the short - term technical aspect [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator 9 points, the valuation indicator 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator 9 points. For Treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator 7 points [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy remained unchanged last week. In the long - term, September's financial and inflation data had a certain boosting effect on IF and IM, indicating that China still faced credit contraction and deflation pressure and was far from full recovery, which required further policy support. In the short - term, the exchange rate was still in a low range, and the capital market remained relatively loose. The overall market risk appetite recovered compared to the beginning of the week, and the overall comprehensive signal was above neutral. For Treasury bond futures, although the capital market was loose, the market risk appetite limited the upward space, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was significant [1]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic Fundamental High - Frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy indicators such as blast furnace operating rate, PTA operating rate, etc., showed different week - on - week changes. The index futures scored 8 points, and the Treasury bond futures scored 0 points [2]. - Inflation indicators including vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal index, etc., also had various week - on - week changes. The index futures scored 8 points, and the Treasury bond futures scored 7 points [3]. - Liquidity indicators like DR007, DR001, etc., had their own week - on - week changes, and the index futures scored 9 points [4]. - Index valuation indicators such as PE, PS, etc., showed different trends, and the index futures scored 10 points [5]. - Market sentiment indicators for stocks (financing balance, margin trading balance, etc.) and bonds (government bond yield, etc.) had corresponding week - on - week changes. The index futures' market sentiment scored 9 points, and the Treasury bond futures' market sentiment scored 7 points [6][7]. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes stock index futures and Treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital market high - frequency data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position volume is synthesized considering institutional long and short positions [16]. Prediction Signals - As of last Friday, the short - term model, position volume indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for different futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM, T, TF) were provided. The comprehensive signal strength is a weighted synthesis of three independent models [17]. Last Week's Situation - From October 13 to October 17, the trading signals of different futures contracts showed different states. For example, the IC main contract had a signal of 1 on October 17 [19]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental three - factor model decomposes the interest rate term structure into three parts: level, slope, and curvature. The signals are divided into three types: 1, 0, - 1. The actual operation uses a 1:1.8 ratio to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [20]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - For TF and T main contracts from October 13 to October 17, the N - S model signals and trend regression model signals were provided [23].

Report Investment Rating - The report gives a "★☆☆" rating to CITIC's five-style stability, indicating a slightly bullish view with limited operability in the market [5]. Core Viewpoints - In the week ending October 17, 2025, Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index had weekly returns of -3.39%, 0.21%, and -1.14% respectively. In the public fund market, equity long strategies retreated, pure bonds outperformed, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, and among commodities, precious metal ETFs rose while non-ferrous metal ETFs declined, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. The style rotation chart shows that the growth and consumption styles weakened marginally in terms of relative strength, and the financial style increased significantly in terms of indicator momentum. In the public fund pool, cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the past week, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style currently in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis showed a marginal recovery trend last week. The IM contract rebounded from below the -2 standard deviation of the three - month average to within one standard deviation, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had better performance in the past week with a weekly excess return of 2.49%, while the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns. The win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The cross - section rotation speed of factors increased significantly this week and is currently in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.52%, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark equal - weighted allocation [5]. Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - In the public fund market, equity long strategies had a drawdown in the past week, pure bonds had better returns, neutral strategy products showed mixed performance, precious metal ETFs in commodities had large increases, non - ferrous metal ETFs had a return correction, and energy chemical and soybean meal ETFs' net values continued to weaken [5]. - Among CITIC's five styles, the financial style rose last week while others fell. Cyclical style funds had better excess performance in the public fund pool, and other style funds underperformed the index on average. The product's deviation from cyclical and consumption styles increased marginally, and the overall market congestion indicator increased marginally this week, with the cyclical style in a historically high congestion range [5]. - In the neutral strategy, the stock index basis recovered marginally last week, and the premium rates of the corresponding spot index ETFs of IH and IF were in the top 20% quantile range of the past three months [5]. - Among Barra factors, the residual momentum factor had a weekly excess return of 2.49%, the momentum and capital flow factors had excess drawdowns, and the win - rates of the profitability and leverage factors improved. The factor cross - section rotation speed increased significantly and is in a relatively high quantile range in the past year [5]. - According to the style timing model, the consumption and financial styles recovered marginally this week, the cyclical style declined, and the style timing strategy had a return of 0.52% last week, with an excess return of 1.45% compared to the benchmark [5]. Recent Market Returns - The weekly, monthly, quarterly, and semi - annual returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond (net), and Nanhua Commodity are presented in the report, along with data on the establishment scale of public funds in the past year, the maximum drawdown of major public fund strategy indices in the past three months, and the weekly returns of major public fund strategy indices [7]. CITIC Style Index - The net value trends of CITIC's financial, cyclical, consumption, growth, and stable style indices are shown, as well as the relative rotation chart of these style indices, which reflects the relative strength and momentum of different styles in different time periods [8][9]. - The excess return performance of CITIC style - based fund style indices in different time periods (weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, annual) is presented, along with the congestion levels of different styles (excluding the stable style due to data limitations) [10][11]. Barra Factors - The preference levels of Barra single - factors (ranging from 0 - 1) are shown, indicating the degree of preference for different factors. The excess return performance of Barra single - factor style strategies in different time periods (weekly, monthly) is also presented, as well as the excess net value trends of Barra single - factor styles since this year [13][14][17].

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, in a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Crude oil may enter a weakly oscillating phase. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different supply - demand characteristics in the short and medium terms. Asphalt maintains a tight balance, and liquefied petroleum gas has certain inventory and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation speed has accelerated further, with a 1.5% increase in inventory since the fourth quarter. The mid - term trend of the crude oil market is still under pressure, but the short - term downward momentum is weakening, and the market may turn to a weakly oscillating state [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Short - term fuel oil prices follow the cost side with a weakly oscillating downward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term price support but faces increasing supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil maintains a supply - demand weak situation. Strategies include shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract oscillates narrowly. The weekly asphalt operating rate declines, demand is weaker than expected in October, and the overall commercial inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt market maintains a tight balance and is pressured by the weak cost side [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract continues to oscillate narrowly, with the far - month contract under pressure. Supply increases slightly this week, chemical demand grows, and inventory at refineries and ports decreases. The basis narrows to near the flat - water position [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weak internal demand but high exports, with the market stabilizing but lacking upward momentum [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by high iron - water levels and safety production expectations [4][5] - The ferrosilicon manganese market has high demand and relatively stable supply, with attention to external trade frictions [6] - The ferrosilicon market has overall good demand and continuous inventory reduction, also affected by external trade frictions [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread: Surface demand rebounded month - on - month but was still weak year - on - year, production declined, and inventory decreased [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Demand increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down [2] - Overall: Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained high, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain persisted [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year, and domestic arrivals decreased from a high level but were still strong [3] - Demand: Iron - water production decreased slightly from a high level, and the pressure for future production cuts increased [3] - Market: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, with concerns about trade frictions and expectations of policy benefits [3] Coke - Supply: Coking production decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline slightly [4] - Demand: Downstream procurement was on a small - scale and on - demand basis, mainly consuming inventory [4] - Market: Prices were likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with support at previous lows and expected cost increases [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Coal mine production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly month - on - month [5] - Demand: High iron - water levels provided support for raw materials [5] - Market: Prices were likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, with expectations of safety production inspections [5] Ferrosilicon Manganese - Supply: Weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] - Demand: Iron - water production remained high, and expected demand was still good [6] - Market: Attention was paid to the bidding price of a large steel mill in the north, and the impact of external trade frictions [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply remained at a high level, and inventory continued to be depleted [7] - Demand: Iron - water production remained high, export demand was about 30,000 tons, and secondary demand increased slightly [7] - Market: Attention was paid to steel tender news and the impact of external trade frictions [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading - floor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Cotton prices are expected to be affected by supply and demand, sugar prices are likely to remain weak, apple prices are influenced by factors such as production and storage, and natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are affected by supply, demand, and inventory [2][3][4][6] - For most commodities, it is recommended to wait and see for now, while for timber, a bullish trading strategy is maintained [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly, breaking through the recent trading range. The cost of new cotton is generally stable, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg and the higher price at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As of October 15, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The downstream yarn market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start the crushing season, with expected year - on - year increases in production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices are weak. The 25/26 crushing season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good sugar production. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price increased with rising positions. Due to heavy rainfall in the north, the listing of Red Fuji was delayed. As rainfall decreased, the trading volume increased. The market is mainly trading on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production may be adjusted downward. The initial cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures market sentiment is divided. The supply of natural rubber is in the high - yield period, and a typhoon may affect some production areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased. In September, China's tire exports continued to decline. After the National Day, the tire plant operating rate rebounded. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the social inventory of butadiene rubber and the upstream port inventory of butadiene increased. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6] Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China decreased by 0.3 tons to 207.4 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. The supply of pulp is relatively loose, and demand is average. Overseas broad - leaf pulp prices are rising, narrowing the price gap with softwood pulp. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The import willingness of traders decreased due to high foreign prices. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. A bullish trading strategy is maintained [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propene, plastic: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the market [1] - Pure benzene, styrene: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish/bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle chips, methanol, soda ash: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Urea, PVC, glass: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and current investment opportunities [1] - Caustic soda: ★★★★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description but presented in the table [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows mixed trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements. Some products are in a weak position due to factors like increased supply and weak demand, while others have signs of improvement in trading volume or short - term support [2][3][5] Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propene futures dropped to a new low for the year. Producers want to stabilize the market, and downstream purchases increased with better trading volume [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures were weak. Polyethylene faced post - holiday inventory build - up, and price cuts couldn't boost sales significantly. Polypropylene will have more supply due to new capacity and less maintenance, with poor downstream orders and high inventory [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene market declined, with larger drops in the unified benzene disk and spot prices. High imports are a major pressure. The benzene - styrene futures fell, with cost support weakening, but short - term supply - demand improved slightly [3] Polyester - PX supply decreased due to maintenance, while PTA supply is expected to increase. The polyester industry has a weak outlook with potential inventory build - up for PTA. Ethylene glycol inventory continued to rise, and its price depends on raw materials. Short - fiber had good inventory reduction and was bullish in the short - term. Bottle chips' demand will weaken with the cooling weather and face long - term over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports at coastal areas may slow down, but port inventory is still affected by high planned arrivals. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak, with short - term policy - driven market fluctuations and long - term price increase expectations [6] - Urea futures are in a narrow range. Supply is abundant due to weather - affected demand, but exports may support prices, and the market will continue to oscillate at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC supply decreased slightly but remained high. Domestic demand was stable, and exports were good in September but may face policy pressure. It may trend weakly [7] - Caustic soda production decreased due to maintenance, and inventory dropped. Downstream demand is uncertain, and short - selling should be cautious due to high basis [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply was high despite a small production decline. Downstream demand growth was limited, and it's advisable to short at high prices after a rebound [8] - Glass prices continued to fall with inventory build - up. Supply was high, and demand was weak. The decline may be limited at low valuations, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [8]